Detailed Expert Analysis of the MH17 Downing

Introduction

100 years ago there was a shooting in Sarajevo. Historians credit this act of violence as being the trigger event for the First World War. It is possible future historians will look back at the shoot down of MH17 as the trigger event for the Last World War.

The following report examines the circumstance surrounding the loss of the 298 lives aboard Malaysian Airways flight MH17. This work was undertaken in response to the current fact free public discourse coupled with the strident allegations increasingly reminiscent of the clamour for conflict that lead to WWI. It is hoped that a formal review of the known facts may serve to undermine any belligerent attempt to provoke a wider war.

Section 1 examines what is known about the Buk M-1. Section 2 reports factual data regarding the crash of MH17. Section 3 considers the possibility of the shoot down being the responsibility of rebel forces operating on behalf of the Donetsk Peoples Republic. Section 4 examines the possibility of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) being responsible for the shoot down. Section 5 provides a speculative interpretation of events surrounding the shoot down.

This report is based on information publicly available on August 1st 2014. As new information is released this report may need to be updated. It is anticipated that making this report available for public review will result in both suggestions for improvement and / or the identification of critical gaps in the factual record.