For those of us who are part of the Alternate History Community (and I certainly consider myself a member) Operation Sea Lion — the planned German invasion of Britain in 1940 — seems to hold a promise of a radical shift in the balance of European power. Had Hitler invaded, had Britain fallen, the Nazis would seem to hold supreme power. Hitler would have been able to go east in 1941 without having to worry about his rear, while Japan and Italy would rapidly have snapped up the remains of the British Empire. It would be a total geopolitical disaster.
Fortunately, the Nazis would have faced formidable problems in carrying out the invasion, to the point where most members of the AH Community dismiss it as a pipe dream. In my opinion, Sea Lion had about a one-in-six chance of success; Hitler, still a calculative gambler in 1940, decided that it was too big a risk to take.
But what if the invasion had been launched later?
It wasn’t, of course. Hitler’s forces bogged down in Russia, Hitler declared war on the United States in a fit of absentmindedness and Germany was crushed between the combined forces of America, Britain and Soviet Russia. The war ended in 1945.
But what if Hitler had won in Russia? What if America hadn’t entered the war?
Would they plan to invade Britain again?