The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat

In turn, growth relieves social pressure and creates upwardly mobile middle classes that tend to champion democracy and engagement with the world. America could help make all this happen. It could rally the international community, mobilize resources, and provide the kind of influence in the region’s capitals that would persuade them to commit to (sometimes painful) economic change.

Economic engagement should go hand in hand with serious diplomatic engagement in the region. Our generals are prominent across the Middle East and should remain so, but so should our diplomats. We should be a participant in the flow of regional politics and not just a military arbiter. Our engagement should be directed at ensuring regional stability and promoting regional harmony. Seeing the region through the narrow lens of counterterrorism does not serve those goals.

Zbigniew Brzezinski writes that America has played a critical balancing role in East Asia, fostering peace and prosperity by maintaining a delicate balance between China and its neighbors.¹⁰ But it is not just in Asia that America has kept the balance. In the Middle East, too, America has played a balancing role, between Iran and its neighbors on one side of the region, and Israel and its neighbors on the other. Without American engagement the region would have to arrive at its own balance, and that will be a violent and destabilizing process. Without American leadership in the Middle East, the region’s future, left to China and Russia to figure out, or to Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to fight over, will not be hopeful.

The political scientist John Ikenberry lauds the liberal international order America has built.¹¹ The global order is today durable and stable thanks to the many multilateral mechanisms America helped build and continues to support: institutions such as the UN, the World Bank, and NATO that have fostered security and development, or the EU and NAFTA, which have promoted prosperity and lured the likes of Mexico and Turkey to embrace capitalism and democracy.¹²

America has lost some of its own authority to international institutions it created and sustained. But that is a good thing. It means that the liberal international order has legs; it will last longer and continue to define the world order around values and practices that will foster peace, freedom, and prosperity. As Ikenberry notes, “The underlying foundations of the liberal international order will survive and thrive” without America’s guiding hand.¹³ In the Middle East, though, where simmering instability threatens global security and prosperity, America has done very little institution building of the kind Ikenberry writes about. There is no equivalent to ASEAN or APEC (the Asia Pacific Economic Council), or rival to the SCO, which is backed by China, Russia, and Iran. Perhaps America should help create those kinds of institutions, which could foster order but also make the region’s security and prosperity less dependent on the exercise of American authority. Only then should America think about pivoting somewhere else.

Whatever our new commitments, it is not likely that America can easily and quickly wash its hands of the Middle East. We cannot escape the blowback from trouble in this region. Even Asian leaders who are now the object of our greater attention are incredulous: “Are you sure you can do this with all that is happening in the Middle East?”

The answer should be yes. We have done it in the past and we can do it again. We can have a vision of the world that encompasses our interests in Asia and in the Middle East. That is the essence of global leadership.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This book would not have been but for the generosity of many colleagues in Washington, Europe, China, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; senior and junior officials, journalists, and scholars. They shared their views of the past and the present, and provided essential information that helped my thinking and sharpened my arguments, and narrated telltale vignettes and backstories that have enriched this book.

No one was more instrumental in shaping the idea for this book than Richard Holbrooke. He was a source of inspiration and fount of ideas large and small about America’s place in the world and how it ought to conduct its foreign policy. I owe to him the core ideas of this book and the details of many of the events narrated within it. He exhorted me to focus on the challenges facing American foreign policy, especially in the Muslim world, and I hope the result is true to his vision and legacy.

Thanks also to Rina Amiri, Peter Bergen, Ashley Bommer, Stephen Bosworth, Nicholas Burns, Kent Calder, Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Shamila Chaudhry, Alexander Evans, Leila Fawaz, Leslie Gelb, Fiona Hill, Ibrahim Kalin, Bijan Khajepour, John Lipsky, Maleeha Lodhi, Kati Marton, Sean Misko, Afshin Molavi, Nader Mousavizadeh, Meghan O’Sullivan, Tom Pickering, Joel Rayburn, Barnett Rubin, Jamie Rubin, David Sanger, Arthur Sculley, Emma Sky, James Walsh, Frank Wisner, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar for their wisdom and insights. There are many others to whom I owe a debt of gratitude but who shall remain anonymous.

Liaqat Ahamed, Ray Takeyh, Randa Slim, and Bilal Baloch read all or parts of the early drafts of this book and made valuable comments that have improved the narrative in important ways. I am grateful to them. Philip Costopolous read all of what I wrote with his customary care and attention to detail, and spared no effort to hone my arguments.

My talented research assistants, Artin Afkhami, Maliheh Birjandi Feriz, and Tara Sepehrifar, were immensely helpful in locating sources and finding relevant facts large and small that have enriched the pages of this book.

Throughout the time I worked on this book I benefited from the support of colleagues at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, where I taught when I first embarked on this endeavor, and the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University, where I served as dean when I finally finished the manuscript. I also benefited from the support of colleagues at Brookings Institution, where I was senior fellow in foreign policy through most of the time I worked on this book. I would like to thank in particular Brookings’s president, Strobe Talbot, and the institution’s vice president and director of its foreign policy program, Martin Indyk. They were generous with their support and also with their insight. I am grateful for their friendship and interest in my work.

My literary agent, Susan Rabiner, was instrumental in giving this book direction. She gave this project the full measure of her attention from our very first conversation about it to when the final draft went to press. Her insights and suggestions were invaluable, and the book owes much to her caring interest. My brilliant editor at Doubleday, Kris Puopolo, took a deep interest in this book, and read everything I wrote carefully, and then took her pen to the entire manuscript, time and again improving each chapter, page, and paragraph. I am deeply grateful for her work on this book. Thanks also to Kris’s assistant editor, Daniel Meyer, my publicists, Alison Rich and Todd Doughty, and the entire team at Doubleday for their professionalism and wonderful work.

My deepest appreciation is reserved for my wife, Darya, sons, Amir and Hossein, and daughter, Donia. Without their love and encouragement, not to mention patience and good humor, this book would not have been possible. I hope they will find the book worthy of that indulgence.

NOTES

INTRODUCTION

1.

“Pakistan, China Have Shared Interests in Peace Promotion: PM,”

Nation

, May 15, 2012,

www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/15-May-2012/pakistan-china-have-shared-interests-in-peace-promotion-pm

.

PROLOGUE: “A WEEK IN SEPTEMBER”

1.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran,

Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan

(New York: Knopf, 2012), pp. 261–69.

2.

On the history of how this idea has been used by Democratic Party leaders see James Mann,

The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power

(New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 37–38.

3.

This theme is most clearly examined in Robert Kagan,

The World America Made

(New York: Knopf, 2012).

CHAPTER 1: AFGHANISTAN: THE GOOD WAR GONE BAD

1.

James Risen, “U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan,”

New York Times

, June 13, 2010,

www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?pagewanted=all

.

2.

This concept is best elaborated in Richard Haass,

War of Necessity

,

War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009).

3.

Judy Hevrdejs, “Hamid Karzai: The World’s Most Stylish Man?”

Chicago Tribune

, January 31, 2002,

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002-01-31/features/0201310025_l_hamid-karzai-glenn-o-brien-hats

.

4.

A critical event in this retreat was the successful effort by Taliban leaders, but also Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar, to slip out of the December 2001 U.S. and NATO dragnet at the Tora Bora cave complex about six miles north of the FATA line. In a bad sign for the future, the failure to nab bin Laden at Tora Bora was ascribed not only to U.S. command failures and NATO irresolution but also to Pakistan’s failure to watch the border, as well as unreliability or perhaps even deliberate treachery on the part of native Afghan troops who were supposed to be acting as U.S. allies but instead created opportunities for bin Laden to escape. See Sean Naylor,

Not a Good Day to Die: The Untold Story of Operation Anaconda

(New York: Berkley, 2005).

5.

Naylor,

Not a Good Day to Die

.

6.

Angela Balakrishnan, “Afghanistan Troop Deaths Outnumber Those Killed in Iraq,”

Guardian

, July 1, 2008,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/01/afghanistan.iraq

; Ahmed Rashid,

Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan

(New York: Viking, 2012), p. 74.

7.

Antonio Giustozzi,

Koran, Kalashnikov, and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan 2002–2007

(New York: New York University Press, 2009).

8.

Steve Coll,

Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001

(New York: Penguin, 2004), p. 134.

9.

Ian S. Livingston and Michael O’Hanlon,

Afghanistan Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction and Security in Post-9/11 Afghanistan

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, January 30, 2012), p. 18,

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/FP/afghanistan%20index/index.pdf

.

10.

Bob Woodward,

Obama’s Wars

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 88–90.

11.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran,

Little America: The War Within the War in Afghanistan

(New York: Knopf, 2012).

12.

Chandrasekaran provides a devastating account of Karzai’s corruption and misrule in

Little America

.

13.

Ibid.

14.

Sheri Berman, “From Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan,”

Foreign Affairs

, March/April 2010,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65984/sheri-berman/from-the-sun-king-to-karzai

. For a broader discussion of this theme see Francis Fukuyama,

The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution

(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), pp. xi–xiii.

15.

Thomas Barfield, “Afghanistan’s Ethnic Puzzle,”

Foreign Affairs

, September/October 2011,

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68204/thomas-barfield/afghanistans-ethnic-puzzle

.

16.

Gretchen Peters,

Seeds of Terror: How Drugs, Thugs, and Crime Are Reshaping the Afghan War

(New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2009); Alissa Rubin, “War on Afghan Opium Yields Few Victories,”

New York Times

, May 28, 2012, p. A6.

17.

Antonio Giustozzi,

Decoding the Taliban: Insights from the Afghan Field

(New York: Columbia University Press, 2009).

18.

For a fuller discussion, see Kimberly Kagan, “The Anbar Awakening: Displacing al-Qaeda from Its Stronghold in Western Iraq,” Iraq Report, Institute for the Study of War and

WeeklyStandard.com

, August 21 2006–March 30 2007,

www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/reports/IraqReport03.pdf

.

19.

How this strategy worked is best described in Michael O’Hanlon and Hassina Sherjan,

Toughing It Out in Afghanistan

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2010).

20.

“President Obama’s Secret: Only 100 al Qaeda Now in Afghanistan,” ABC News,

abcnews.go.com/Blotter/president-obamas-secret-100-al-Qaeda-now-afghanistan/story?id=9227861#.TyypheNWqf8

.

21.

“Ambassador Eikenberry’s Cables on U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan,”

New York Times

,

documents.nytimes.com/eikenberry-s-memos-on-the-strategy-in-afghanistan#p=1

.

22.

James Dobbins, “Your COIN Is No Good Here,”

Foreign Affairs

, October 26, 2010,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66949/james-dobbins/your-coin-is-no-good-here?page=2

.

23.

Chandrasekaran,

Little America

, pp. 68–81.

24.

Rashid,

Pakistan on the Brink

, p. 76.

25.

Ibid., pp. 19–20.

26.

Geir Lundestad,

The United States and Western Europe since 1945: From “Empire” by Invitation to Transatlantic Drift

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), p. 160, cited in Robert Kagan,

The World America Made

(New York: Knopf, 2012), p. 63.

27.

Fotini Christia and Michael Sempel, “Flipping the Taliban,”

Foreign Affairs

, July/August 2009,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65151/fotini-christia-and-michael-semple/flipping-the-taliban

.

CHAPTER 2: AFGHANISTAN: RECONCILIATION?

1.

Strobe Talbott first referred to Holbrooke as the “unquiet American” in an obituary: “Remembering Richard Holbrooke,”

Washington Post

, December 15, 2010,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/14/AR2010121406366.html

. Later a biography of Holbrooke carried the same title: Derek Chollet and Samantha Power, eds.,

The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World

(New York: Public Affairs, 2011).

2.

Mark Landler, “Afghan Shift Puts Top U.S. Civilians in Tricky Spot,”

New York Times

, July 1, 2010, p. A14.

3.

Author interview with Mark Landler, August 2010.

4.

Rajiv Chandrasekaran,

Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan

(New York: Knopf, 2012), p. 230.

5.

Les Gelb, “Richard Holbrooke’s Lonely Mission,”

Daily Beast

, January 16, 2011,

www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/01/16/richard-holbrooke-s-lonely-mission.html

.

6.

Cited in William H. Luers and Thomas R. Pickering, “Envisioning a Deal with Iran,”

New York Times

, February 2, 2012,

www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

.

7.

Matthew Rosenberg, “When Afghans Look to the Border with Pakistan, They Don’t See a Fixed Line,”

New York Times

, October 29, 2012, p. A9.

8.

Robert D. Hormats, remarks at conference titled “The United States’ ‘New Silk Road’ Strategy: What Is It? Where Is It Headed?” September 29, 2011, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, available at

www.state.gOv/e/rls/rmk/2011/174800.htm

.

9.

Obama even discussed the idea with journalists in August 2010. David Ignatius, “The U.S. Should Test Iran’s Resolve to Stabilize Afghanistan,”

Washington Post

, September 17, 2010,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR2010091606067.html

.

10.

Christoph Reuter, Gregor Peter Schmitz, and Holger Stark, “How German Diplomats Opened Channel to Taliban,”

Der Spiegel

, January 10, 2012,

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,808068,00.html

.

11.

Ahmed Rashid,

Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan

(New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 113–36.

12.

Rod Norland and Alissa Rubin, “Taliban Captives Dispute U.S. View on Afghanistan War,”

New York Times

, February 2, 2012, p. A1.

13.

Later in 2010, Aisha, whose ears had been sliced off as well, received reconstructive surgery from plastic surgeons in Los Angeles. See

http://www.theage.com.au/world/doctors-rebuild-face-and-future-of-afghan-child-bride-20101014-16lt2.html

.

14.

By this time there were a number of serious studies of how to carry out reconciliation talks, and some had influence on debates inside the White House. Lakhdar Brahimi and Thomas C. Pickering,

Afghanistan:

Negotiating Peace

(New York: Century Foundation, 2011); James Shinn and James Dobbins,

Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer

(Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2011).

CHAPTER 3: WHO LOST PAKISTAN?

1.

Vali Nasr, “No More Bullying Pakistan,”

Bloomberg View

, July 5, 2012,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-05/u-s-apology-ends-doomed-policy-of-bullying-pakistan-vali-nasr.html

.

2.

Admiral Mullen’s comments are quoted in Stephen Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,”

Foreign Affairs

, January/February 2012, pp. 87–96.

3.

Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell,”

Atlantic

, December 2011,

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/8730/

.

4.

Bruce Riedel, “A New Pakistan Policy: Containment,”

New York Times

, October 14, 2011, p. A19; Zalmay Khalilzad, “A Strategy of ‘Congagement’ Toward Pakistan,”

Washington Quarterly

35, no. 2 (Winter 2012): 107–19. See also, Gerald Stang, “US Strategic Interests in South Asia: What Not to Do with Pakistan,”

European Union Institute for Security Studies

, June 25, 2012,

http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/us-strategic-interests-in-south-asia-what-not-to-do-with-pakistan/

.

5.

“U.S. Embassy Cables: ‘Reviewing Our Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy,’ ”

Guardian

, November 30, 2010,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/226531

.

6.

See Matthew Teague, “Black Ops and Blood Money,”

Men’s Journal

, June 2011,

http://www.mensjournal.com/black-ops-and-blood-money

.

7.

Thorough accounts of this relationship can be found in Dennis Kux,

The United States and Pakistan

,

1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies

(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001) and Teresita Schaffer and Howard Schaffer,

How Pakistan Negotiates with the United States: Riding the Roller Coaster

(Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2011).

8.

Ahmed Rashid,

Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia

(New York: Viking, 2008).

9.

Pervez Musharraf,

In the Line of Fire: A Memoir

(New York: Free Press, 2006), p. 201.

10.

Steve Coll, “Looking for Mulla Omar,”

New Yorker

, January 23, 2012, p. 52.

11.

Declan Walsh and Eric Schmitt, “Militant Group Poses Risk to U.S.-Pakistan Relations,”

New York Times

, July 31, 2012, p. A1.

12.

David Rohde and Kristen Mulvihill,

A Rope and a Prayer: A Kidnapping from Two Sides

(New York: Viking, 2010).

13.

Ahmed Rashid,

Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan

(New York: Viking, 2012), p. 150.

14.

Goldberg and Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell.”

15.

Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain: Ending Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan,”

Foreign Affairs

, November/December 2008, pp. 30–44.

16.

The best account of the war and Pakistan’s role in it is Steve Coll,

Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001

(New York: Penguin Press, 2004).

17.

Bruce Riedel,

Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of Global Jihad

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011).

18.

Imtiaz Gul,

The Most Dangerous Place: Pakistan’s Lawless Frontier

(New York: Viking, 2010), pp. 112–29.

19.

Cited in Mohsin Hamid, “Why They Get Pakistan Wrong,”

New York Review of Books

, September 29, 2011,

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/sep/29/why-they-get-pakistan-wrong/?pagination=false

.

20.

Zahid Hussain, “Pakistan’s Most Dangerous Place,”

Wilson Quarterly

, Winter 2012,

http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/article.cfm?aid=2097

.

21.

William Safire, “Wide World of Words,”

New York Times

, April 26, 2009, p. MM16.

22.

Pir Zubair Shah, “My Drone War,”

Foreign Policy

, March/April 2012, pp. 58–62.

23.

Jane Mayer, “The Predator War,”

New Yorker

, October 26, 2009,

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/10/26/091026fa_fact_mayer

; David Sanger,

Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

(New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 243–70.

24.

Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,” p. 87.

25.

Riedel, “New Pakistan Policy.”

26.

Seth Jones,

Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al-Qaeda Since 9/11

(New York: Norton, 2012), pp. 417–32.

27.

Peter Bergen,

Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad

(New York: Crown, 2012).

28.

Sanger,

Confront and Conceal

, p. 10.

29.

Eric Schmitt, “Lull in Strikes by U.S. Drones Aids Militants in Pakistan,”

New York Times

, January 8, 2012, p. A1.

30.

Karen DeYoung and Karin Brulliard, “ ‘A New Normal’ for U.S., Pakistan,”

Washington Post

, January 17, 2012;

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-us-pakistani-relations-sink-nations-try-to-figure-out-a-new-normal/2012/01/13/gIQAklfw3P_story.html

.

CHAPTER 4: IRAN: BETWEEN WAR AND CONTAINMENT

1.

Gordon M. Goldstein,

Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam

(New York: Henry Holt, 2008), pp. 178 and 186.

2.

Ibid.

3.

George Stephanopoulos, “The Must Read Book for Obama’s War Team,” ABC News, September 22, 2009,

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/09/the-mustread-book-for-obamas-war-team/

.

4.

See Obama’s interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, “Obama to Iran and Israel: ‘As President of the United States, I Don’t Bluff,’ ”

Atlantic

, March 2, 2012,

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/

.

5.

Goldstein,

Lessons in Disaster

, p. 184.

6.

Vali Nasr, “Obama Needs to Go the Whole Mile on Iran Diplomacy,”

Bloomberg View

, March 13, 2012,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-13/obama-need-to-go-whole-mile-on-iran-diplomacy-vali-nasr.html

.

7.

Michael R. Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor,

The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq from George W. Bush to Barack Obama

(New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 312–28.

8.

Stephen Graubard, “Lunch with the FT: Henry Kissinger,”

Financial Times

, May 24, 2008,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6d4b5fb8-285a-11dd-8f1e-000077b07658.html#axzz1pIrOuTFv

.

9.

James Dobbins,

After the Taliban: Nation Building in Afghanistan

(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).

10.

Barnett Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, “The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: A Policy Gone Awry,” MIT Center for International Studies, October 2008,

http://web.mit.edu/cis/editorspick_rubin08_audit.html

.

11.

Author interview with a former Iranian government official who was present at that meeting with Khamenei.

12.

Author interview with President Khatami, Davos, Switzerland, January 2007.

13.

Vali Nasr, “Who Wins in Iraq: Iran,”

Foreign Policy

, February 13, 2007,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2007/02/13/who_wins_in_iraq

.

14.

Bassem Mrou, “Talabani Says Iranians Ready for Talks With U.S. on Regional Security,”

Associated Press

, January 20, 2007,

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1665&dat=20070120&id=JZNPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=OCUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3299,3780514

.

15.

Author interview with Iranian official, July 2007.

16.

Cited in “Khamenei Denies Nuclear Weapon,”

Iran Primer

, United States Institute for Peace, February 22, 2012,

http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2012/feb/22/part-i-khamenei-denies-nuclear-weapon

; Nick Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production a ‘Great Sin,’ ”

New York Times

, February 28, 2012,

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/29/world/middleeast/iran-calls-for-negotiations-on-treaty-banning-nuclear-weapons.html

.

17.

“In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey,” Middle East and Europe Report no. 116, International Crisis Group, February 23, 2012, p. 2,

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Iran/116—in-heavy-waters-irans-nuclear-program-the-risk-of-war-and-lessons-from-turkey.pdf

.

18.

Mohsen Milani, “Tehran’s Take,”

Foreign Affairs

, July/August 2009,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65123/mohsen-m-milani/tehrans-take

.

19.

Vali Nasr,

The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future

(New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.

20.

Ray Takeyh,

Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 245.

21.

Shahram Chubin,

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).

22.

Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production,” p. A7.

23.

Dennis Ross, “Calling Iran’s Bluff: It’s Time to Offer Tehran a Civilian Nuclear Program,”

New Republic

, June 15, 2012,

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/104085/calling-iran%E2%80%99s-bluff-its-time-offer-iran-civilian-nuclear-program?page=0,1

.

24.

Efrahim Halevy, “Iran’s Achilles Heel,”

New York Times

, February 7, 2012,

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/opinion/to-weaken-iran-start-with-syria.html

; James P. Rubin, “The Real Reason to Intervene in Syria,”

Foreign Policy

, June 4, 2012,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/04/the_real_reason_to_intervene_in_syria

.

25.

For a full discussion of Bush administration handling of Iran’s nuclear program see David Sanger,

The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power

(New York: Crown, 2009), pp. 1–108.

26.

Ray Takeyh and Suzanne Maloney, “The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions,”

International Affairs

87, no. 6 (2011): 1297–1312.

27.

Suzanne Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran,”

American Prospect

, March 5, 2009,

http://prospect.org/article/how-contain-nuclear-iran

.

28.

Hossein Mousavian,

Iran’s Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir

(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).

29.

“Blair, Chirac Hope IAEA Confirms Iran’s Voluntary Suspension,”

Pay-vand

, November 19, 2004,

http://www.payvand.com/news/04/nov/1163.html

.

30.

Hossein Mousavian, “How the U.S.-Iran Standoff Looks from Iran,”

Bloomberg View

, February 16, 2012,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-17/how-the-u-s-iran-standoff-looks-from-iran-hossein-mousavian.html

.

31.

Hossein Mousavian, “How to Engage Iran,”

Foreign Affairs

, February 9, 2012,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/137095/hossein-mousavian/how-to-engage-iran?page=show

.

32.

Author interviews with a former Iranian official, June 2010.

33.

Robin Wright, “Stuart Levy’s War,”

New York Times

, October 31, 2008,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/magazine/02IRAN-t.html?pagewanted=all

.

34.

U.S. State Department cable, Cairo, February 9, 2009, from Ambassador Margaret Scobey to the secretary of state,

http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/02/09CAIRO231.html

.

35.

U.S. State Department cable, Paris, February 12, 2010, from the American embassy to the secretary of state,

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS174.html

.

36.

Roger Cohen, “Iran’s Day of Anguish,”

New York Times

, June 14, 2009,

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?_r=2

.

37.

Trita Parsi,

A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran

(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), p. 115.

38.

David Sanger,

Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

(New York: Crown, 2012), p. 184.

39.

David Sanger, “Iran Deal Would Slow Making of Nuclear Bombs,”

New York Times

, October 21, 2009,

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/22/world/middleeast/22nuke.html

.

40.

Author interview with German diplomat present at the meeting, May 2010.

41.

Farideh Farhi, “Anatomy of a Nuclear Breakthrough Gone Backwards,”

Middle East Research and Information Project

, December 8, 2009,

http://www.merip.org/mero/mero120809

.

42.

Martin Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon,

Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), pp. 196–98.

43.

John Parker,

Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran Since the Fall of the Shah

(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).

44.

Mark Katz, “Iran and Russia,”

Iran Primer

, United States Institute for Peace,

http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-russia

.

45.

Parsi,

Single Roll of the Dice

, p. 193.

46.

“The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010,

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx

.

47.

Dennis Ross and David Makovsky,

Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East

(New York: Viking, 2009), p. 221.

48.

Parag Khanna,

The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order

(New York: Random House, 2008).

49.

Parsi,

Single Roll of the Dice

, pp. 172–93.

50.

Ibid., p. 187.

51.

Ibid., p. 192.

52.

Julian Borger, “Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Deal,”

Guardian

, May 17, 2010,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/17/iran-brazil-turkey-nuclear

.

53.

Sanger,

Confront and Conceal

, pp. 186–87.

54.

Mousavian,

Iran’s Nuclear Crisis

, p. 18.

55.

Roger Cohen, “Doctrine of Silence,”

New York Times

, November 28, 2011,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/opinion/cohen-doctrine-of-silence.html

.

56.

Mark Perry, “False Flag,”

Foreign Policy

, January 13, 2012,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag

.

57.

“Spymaster: Meir Dagan on Iran’s Threat,”

60 Minutes

, March 11, 2012,

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57394904/the-spymaster-meir-dagan-on-irans-threat/?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel

.

58.

Roger Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?”

New York Times

, January 29, 2012, p. MM22.

59.

Vali Nasr, “Hard-Line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Towards Belligerence,”

Bloomberg View

, January 4, 2012,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/hard-line-u-s-policy-tips-iran-toward-belligerence-vali-nasr.html

; “Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs Focus: Vali Nasr on US-Iran Relations,” YouTube, January 25, 2012,

http://youtube/NaFC9WFUPfc

.

60.

Fareed Zakaria, “To Deal With Iran’s Nuclear Future, Go Back to 2008,”

Washington Post

, October 26, 2011,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/to-deal-with-irans-nuclear-future-go-back-to-2008/2011/10/26/gIQADQyEKM_story.html?hpid=z3

.

61.

William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran,”

Washington Post

, December 30, 2011,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/military-action-isnt-the-only-solution-to-iran/2011/12/29/gIQA69sNRP_story.html

; William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Envisioning a Deal with Iran,”

New York Times

, February 2, 2012,

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html

.

62.

Kateria Azarova and Anissa Naouai, “Step by Step: Russia’s Plan to Bring Iran Back for Good,”

RT News

, August 17, 2011,

http://rt.com/politics/iran-approves-russian-nuclear/

.

63.

“Iran Will Consider Russia’s Nuclear Plan,”

Press TV

, January 28, 2012,

http://presstv.com/detail/223505.html

.

64.

Joshua Hersh, “Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive and Method of an ‘Amateur Hour’ Scheme,”

Huffington Post

, October 12, 2011,

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html

.

65.

Suzanne Maloney, “Obama’s Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions,”

Foreign Affairs

, January 5, 2012,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137011/suzanne-maloney/obamas-counterproductive-new-iran-sanctions

.

66.

Former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian quoted in Steve Inskeep, “Iran’s Decider: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei,”

National Public Radio

, February 23, 2012,

http://www.npr.org/2012/02/23/147277389/meet-irans-decider-supreme-leader-khamenei

.

67.

“Text of Obama’s Speech to AIPAC,”

Associated Press

, March 4, 2012,

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioftJ0jiGfowjv-eLtNgGAVnxphA?docId=1d833bbc98324e338a99fbeccb38b763

.

68.

Ollie Heinonen, “The 20 Percent Solution,”

Foreign Policy

, January 11, 2012,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_solution

.

69.

Richard Haass, “Enough Is Enough,”

Newsweek

, January 22, 2010,

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html

.

70.

See Fareed Zakaria, “How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression,”

Washington Post

, February 15, 2012,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html

, and “Deterring Iran Is the Best Option,”

Washington Post

, March 14, 2012,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html

; Bruce Riedel, “Iran Is Not an Existential Threat,”

thedailynewsegypt.com

, January 20, 2012,

http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html

; Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran.” Earlier iterations of this debate are covered in David Sanger, “Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran,”

New York Times

, March 13, 2010,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html

. On what containment may look like see James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications,”

Foreign Affairs

, March/April 2010,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb

.

CHAPTER 5: IRAQ: THE SIGNAL DEMOCRACY

1.

“Vice President Biden: Iraq Could Be One of the Great Achievements of This Administration,” ABC News, February 11, 2011,

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2010/02/vice-president-biden-iraq-could-be-one-of-the-great-achievements-of-this-administration/

.

2.

Kenneth Pollock, “Maliki Dilemma,”

National Interest

, February 1, 2012,

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-maliki-dilemma-6418

.

3.

Toby Dodge, “The Resistible Rise of Nuri Al-Maliki,”

Opendemocracy

, March 22, 2012,

http://www.opendemocracy.net/toby-dodge/resistible-rise-of-nuri-al-maliki

.

4.

Liz Sly, “U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned as Influence Wanes, Maliki Consolidates Power,”

Washington Post

, April 8, 2012,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-policy-on-iraq-questioned-as-influence-wanes/2012/04/08/gIQAHEAU4S_story.html?hpid=z1

.

5.

Joseph R. Biden and Leslie H. Gelb, “Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq,”

New York Times

, May 1, 2006,

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/opinion/01biden.html?pagewanted=all

.

6.

Joseph R. Biden, “A Plan to Hold Iraq Together,”

Washington Post

, August 24, 2006,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/23/AR2006082301419.html

; “Biden Vows to Fight Troop Surge in Iraq,” CBS News, February 11, 2009,

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-250_162-2299237.html

.

7.

Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor,

The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama

(New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 628–50.

8.

Michael R. Gordon, “Failed Efforts and Challenges of America’s Last Months in Iraq,”

New York Times

, September 23, 2012, p. A1.

9.

Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon,

Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

10.

Gordon and Trainor,

Endgame

, p. 657.

11.

Sly, “U.S. Policy on Iraq Questioned.”

12.

Serena Chaudhry, “Feeling Marginalized, Some Iraq Sunnis Eye Autonomy,”

Reuters

, January 1, 2012,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/us-iraq-politics-sunnis-idUSTRE80005620120101

.

13.

“Kurdish Leader Accuses Iraqi PM of Leading Country to ‘Dictator-ship,’ ”

Al-Arabiya News

, March 21, 2012,

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/21/202063.html

.

14.

Salah Nasrawi, “2011: Why Did Iraq Miss the Arab Spring?”

Ahram Online

, December 31, 2011,

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/30638/World/Region/-Why-did-Iraq-miss-the-Arab-Spring.aspx

.

15.

Vali Nasr,

The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future

(New York: Norton, 2006).

16.

Vali Nasr, “When Shiites Rise,”

Foreign Affairs

, July/August 2006,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61733/vali-nasr/when-the-shiites-rise

.

17.

David Laitin,

Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change Among the Yoruba

(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986).

18.

There is rich scholarship explaining the absence of communal violence when states can make a case for minority rule making rebellion difficult. Donald Horowitz,

Ethnic Groups in Conflict

(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Roger Peterson,

Understanding Ethnic Violence

(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Stuart Kaufman,

Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War

(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

19.

Vali Nasr, “Regional Implications of Shi’a Revival in Iraq,”

Washington Quarterly

27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 7–24.

20.

Vali Nasr, “Syria After the Fall,”

New York Times

, July 29, 2012, p. SR4; Fouad Ajami,

The Syrian Rebellion

(Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2012), pp. 111–34.

21.

On the importance of these civic ties see Ashutosh Varshney,

Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India

(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002).

22.

On how political interest could entrench the politics of identity and turn it violent see Paul R. Brass,

The Production of Hindu-Muslim Violence in Contemporary India

(Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2011).

23.

Steven Wilkinson,

Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India

(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004).

24.

Benjamin Miller,

States, Nations, and Great Powers: The Sources of Regional War and Peace

(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

25.

Niall Ferguson,

The War of the World

(New York: Penguin, 2006), pp. 28–30, 255.

26.

Vali Nasr, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,”

New York Times

, August 27, 2011,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all

.

27.

Ayad Allawi, “How the U.S. and the World Can Help Iraq,”

Washington Post

, August 31, 2011,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-us-and-the-world-can-help-iraq/20U/08/30/gIQAIPZxsJ_story.html

CHAPTER 6: THE FADING PROMISE OF THE ARAB SPRING

1.

Fawaz Gerges,

Obama and the Middle East: The End of America’s Moment?

(New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012).

2.

Martin S. Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael E. O’Hanlon,

Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), p. 112.

3.

Ibid., p. 121.

4.

Ibid., p. 122.

5.

Ibid.

6.

Dan Ephron, “The Wrath of Mahmoud Abbas,”

Daily Beast

, April 24, 2011,

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/04/25/mahmoud-abbas-interview-palestinian-leaders-frustration-with-obama.html

.

7.

Jim Lobe, “US Standing Plunges Across the Arab World,”

Al-Jazeera

, July 14, 2011,

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/07/2011714104413787827.html

.

8.

“President Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address,”

White House Blog

,

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address

.

9.

“Obama Pledges Support for Tunisia,”

Al-Arabiya

, October 8, 2011,

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/10/08/170747.html

.

10.

Indyk, Lieberthal, and O’Hanlon,

Bending History

, pp. 146–48. Also see the president’s comments, “Remarks by the President on the Situation in Egypt,”

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/01/remarks-president-situation-egypt

.

11.

“Clinton Calls for ‘Peaceful, Orderly Transition’ in Egypt,”

McClatchy

, January 30, 2012,

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/01/30/107726/clinton-calls-for-peaceful-orderly.html

.

12.

Steven Cook,

The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 272–307.

13.

James Mann,

The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Define American Power

(New York: Viking, 2012).

14.

Ibid., p. 279.

15.

Helene Cooper, Mark Landler, and David E. Sanger, “In U.S. Signals to Egypt, Obama Straddled a Rift,”

New York Times

, February 12, 2011,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/world/middleeast/13diplomacy.html?pagewanted=all

.

16.

Robin Wright,

Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012); Marc Lynch,

The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East

(New York: Public Affairs, 2012), pp. 43–66.

17.

Alaa Al Aswany,

On the State of Egypt: What Made the Revolution Inevitable

(New York: Vintage, 2011); Tarek Osman,

Egypt on the Brink

(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2011).

18.

Alexis de Tocqueville,

The Old Regime and the French Revolution

(New York: Anchor, 1955), p. 177.

19.

The Muslim Brotherhood had a plurality win of 38 percent of the vote and 235 of 498 seats in the 508-member assembly (a token ten seats were filled by appointment). The Salafist al-Nour party, Islamists like the Brotherhood only more so, won 28 percent and 123 seats.

20.

Martin Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon, “Scoring Obama’s Foreign Policy,”

Foreign Affairs

, May/June 2012, p. 38.

21.

Tony Smith,

America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century

(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994).

22.

Mary Elise Sarotte,

1989: The Struggle to Create Post–Cold War Europe

(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

23.

Lynch,

Arab Uprising

.

24.

Vali Nasr, “Economics Versus Extremism,”

Newsweek International

, November 2, 2009, pp. 56–58.

25.

Steven Cook, “On the Economy, Egypt’s New Leaders Should Follow Mubarak,”

Bloomberg View

, May 26, 2011,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-26/on-the-economy-egypt-s-new-leaders-should-follow-mubarak.html

.

26.

Ari Paul, “Egypt’s Labor Pains: For Workers the Revolution Has Just Begun,”

Dissent

, Fall 2011,

http://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/?article=4048

.

27.

Sinan Ülgen, “Supporting Arab Economies in Transition,”

International Economic Bulletin

, July 5, 2012,

http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/07/05/supporting-arab-economies-intransition/ck6p

.

28.

“Unfinished Business,”

Economist

, February 4, 2012, p. 49.

29.

Ülgen, “Supporting Arab Economies in Transition.”

30.

Ibrahim Saif,

Challenges of Egypt’s Economic Transition

(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011), p. 4, available at

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_econ_transition.pdf

.

31.

Hafez Ghanem, “Two Economic Priorities for Post-Election Egypt: Macro-Stabilization and Corruption Control,” Brookings Institution, June 25, 2012,

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/06/25-post-election-egypt-ghanem

.

32.

Ibid.

33.

Carrie Rosefsky Wickham,

Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt

(New York: Columbia University Press, 2002).

34.

Jean-Paul Carvalho,

A Theory of the Islamic Revival

, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, March 2009, p. 39,

http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/Research/wp/pdf/paper424.pdf

.

35.

Nathan J. Brown,

When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success

(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), available at

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/brotherhood_success.pdf

.

36.

Zeinab Abul-Magd, “The Egyptian Republic of Retired Generals,”

Foreign Policy

, May 8, 2012,

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/08/the_egyptian_republic_of_retired_generals

.

37.

David Sanger,

Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power

(New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 314–15.

38.

“The Other Arab Spring,”

Economist

, August 11, 2012,

http://www.economist.com/node/21560243?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/the_other_arab_spring

; Vali Nasr,

Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World

(New York: Free Press, 2009); Christopher M. Schroeder, “The Middle East Could Be a Cradle of Innovation,”

Harvard Business Review

, October 12, 2012;

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/10/the_middle_east_could_be_a_cra.html

; Wright,

Rock the Casbah

.

39.

Michael Mandelbaum,

Democracy’s Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World’s Most Popular Form of Government

(New York: Public Affairs, 2007), pp. 91–92.

40.

“Hillary Clinton Deserves Credit for U.S. Role in Libya: View,”

Bloomberg View

, September 7, 2011,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/hillary-clinton-deserves-credit-for-the-positive-u-s-role-in-libya-view.html

.

41.

Mann,

The Obamians

, p. 279.

42.

William Arkin and Dana Priest,

Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State

(Boston: Little, Brown, 2011).

43.

Sanger,

Confront and Conceal

, pp. 243–72.

44.

Peter Bergen, “Warrior in Chief,”

New York Times

, April 29, 2012, p. SR1.

45.

David Rodhe, “The Obama Doctrine,”

Foreign Policy

, March/April 2012, pp. 65–69.

46.

Greg Miller, “U.S. Set to Keep Kill Lists for Years,”

Washington Post

, October 24, 2012, p. A1.

47.

Michael O’Hanlon thinks that the administration has lacked an effective strategy for dealing with failing states: “Obama’s Weak and Failing States Agenda,”

Washington Quarterly

35, no. 4 (Fall 2012): 67–80.

CHAPTER 7: THE GATHERING STORM

1.

Hassan Bin Talal, “U.S. Can’t Abandon the Middle East,”

Los Angeles Times

, April 17, 2012,

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-hassan-middle-east-engagement-20120417

.

2.

Daniel Yergin,

The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 1991), pp. 167–83.

3.

Andrew Scott Cooper,

The Oil Kings: How the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia Changed the Balance of Power in the Middle East

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011), pp. 137–98.

4.

See Gene Whitney, Carl E. Behrens, and Carol Glover, “U.S. Fossil Fuel Resources: Terminology, Reporting, and Summary,” U.S. Congressional Research Service, March 25, 2011, p. 22, Table 6,

http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40872_20110325.pdf

.

5.

Alex de Marban, “North Dakota Crude Elbows Alaska Oil Out of Washington Refinery,”

Alaska Dispatch

, June 13, 2012,

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/north-dakota-crude-elbows-alaska-oil-out-washington-refinery

.

6.

Thomas Friedman, “The Other Arab Spring,”

New York Times

, April 8, 2012, p. SR1.

7.

“Lights Out: Another Threat to a Fragile Country’s Stability,”

Economist

, October 8, 2011,

http://www.economist.com/node/21531495

.

8.

Michael Kugelman, “Pakistan’s Climate Change Challenge,”

Foreign Policy

, May 9, 2012,

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/09/pakistans_climate_change_challenge

.

9.

John Bongaarts, Zeba Sathar, and Arshad Mahmoud, “Seven Billion People, How Many Pakistanis?”

News

, November 1, 2011,

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-75429-Seven-billion-people-how-many-Pakistanis

; “Pakistan to Become the World’s 4th Largest Nation by 2050: Survey,”

Pakistan Defence

, June 28, 2010,

http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/63702-pakistan-become-4th-largest-nation-population-2050-a.html

.

10.

Robert Worth, “Earth Is Parched Where Syrian Farms Thrived,”

New York Times

, October 13, 2010,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/world/middleeast/14syria.html

.

11.

Ruchir Sharma,

Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

(New York: Norton, 2012), p. 23.

12.

Zuliu Hu and Mohsin S. Khan,

Why Is China Growing So Fast?

Economic Issues series, no. 8 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 1997), p. 1,

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues8/issue8.pdf

.

13.

Niall Ferguson, “Mideast’s Next Dilemma: With Turkey Flexing Its Muscles, We May Soon Face a Revived Ottoman Empire,”

Newsweek

, June 19, 2011,

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/19/turkey-the-mideast-s-next-dilemma.html#

.

14.

Ahmet Davutoglu,

Civilizational Transformation and the Muslim World

(Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Mahir Publications, 1994); “The Davutoglu Effect,”

Economist

, October 21, 2010,

http://www.economist.com/node/17276420

.

15.

Sharma,

Breakout Nations

, p. 119.

16.

Vali Nasr,

The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future

(New York: Norton, 2006).

17.

Halil Karaveli, “Why Does Turkey Want Regime Change in Syria?”

National Interest

, July 23, 2012,

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-does-turkey-want-regime-change-syria-7227

.

18.

“Alevis Fire at Government in Ongoing Cemevi Quarrel,”

Hurriyet Daily News

, August 11, 2012,

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/alevis-fire-at-government-in-ongoing-cemevi-quarrel.aspx?pageID=238&nID=25298&NewsCatID=339

.

19.

“Growing Less Mild,”

Economist

, April 14, 2012, p. 61.

20.

Halil M. Karaveli, “Why Turkey Is Not Going to Help Midwife a Pluralist Syria,”

Turkey Analyst

5, no. 15, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, August 13, 2012,

http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/turkey/2012/120813a.html

.

21.

Ibid.

22.

“Erdogan Lambasts Opposition, Says Syrian Crisis Not Sectarian,”

Today’s Zaman

, May 15, 2012,

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-280401-syrian-crisis-not-sectarian-but-humanitarian-issue-says-erdogan.html

.

23.

Anthony Shadid, “Turkey Predicts Alliance with Egypt as Regional Anchors,”

New York Times

, September 19, 2011, p. A4.

24.

Matt Bradley, “Saudi Arabia Closes Embassy in Egypt,”

Wall Street Journal

, April 28, 2012,

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577371912180606218.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews

.

25.

Tony Karon, “Does Qatar Share the West’s Agenda in Libya?”

Time

, October 5, 2011,

http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/10/05/does-qatar-share-the-wests-agenda-in-libya/

; Rod Norland and David Kirkpatrick, “Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions for Libya,”

New York Times

, September 14, 2011,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/15/world/africa/in-libya-islamists-growing-sway-raises-questions.html?pagewanted=all

.

26.

Golnaz Esfandiari, “Qatar Conquers Iran’s Airspace,”

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

, November 5, 2011,

http://www.rferl.org/content/qatar_conquers_irans_airspace/24382213.html

.

27.

Sharma,

Breakout Nations

, p. 213; Vali Nasr, “Will Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?”

Bloomberg View

, May 23, 2011,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html

.

28.

Sharma,

Breakout Nations

, p. 216.

29.

Robert Kaplan,

The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate

(New York: Random House, 2012), p. 258.

30.

Kiren Aziz Chaudhry,

The Price of Wealth: Economies and Institutions in the Middle East

(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997); Thomas W. Lippman,

Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally

(Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2012).

31.

Toby Jones,

Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia

(Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010).

32.

Nasr,

Shia Revival

, pp. 147–68.

33.

Interview with a former Iranian official, July 2011.

CHAPTER 8: THE CHINA CHALLENGE

1.

Jeffrey Bader, who worked on China at the Obama White House, writes of President Obama’s belief that America had neglected Asia because of its focus on the Middle East and al-Qaeda in

Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy

(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012); also see David M. Lampton, “China and the United States: Beyond Balance,”

Asia Policy

14 (July 2012): 41.

2.

Ibid.

3.

Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,”

Foreign Policy

, November 2011,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century

.

4.

Ibid.

5.

Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi,

Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust

, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, no. 4 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012).

6.

Dale Copeland, “Economic Interdependence and the Future of U.S.-China Relations,” in G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno, eds.,

International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific

(New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), pp. 323–52.

7.

Henry M. Kissinger, “The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity,”

Foreign Affairs

, March/April 2012,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137245/henry-a-kissinger/the-future-of-us-chinese-relations

.

8.

David Smith, “Hillary Clinton Launches African Tour with Veiled Attack on China,”

Guardian

, August 1, 2012,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/01/hillary-clinton-africa-china

.

9.

Aaron Friedberg,

A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia

(New York: Norton, 2011).

10.

Arvind Subramanian,

Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance

(Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics, 2012); Martin Jacques,

When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order

, 2nd ed. (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).

11.

Zachary Karabell,

Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’s Prosperity Depends on It

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009); Robyn Meredith,

The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us

(New York: Norton, 2007); Nicholas Lardy,

Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis

(Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2012).

12.

Kathrin Hille, “Clinton Struggles to Soothe Beijing’s Fears,”

Financial Times

, September 5, 2012,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b296eec-f728-11e1-8e9e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25abzfG2p

.

13.

Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, “How China Sees America,”

Foreign Affairs

, September/October 2012,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show

; Robert Ross, “The Problem with the Pivot,”

Foreign Affairs

, November/December 2012, pp. 70–82.

14.

Thom Shanker, “Panetta Set to Discuss U.S. Shift in Asia Trip,”

New York Times

, September 14, 2012, p. A4.

15.

Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”

16.

Henry M. Kissinger,

On China

(New York: Penguin Press, 2012), pp. 487–530; Zbigniew Brzezinski,

Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power

(New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 155–82.

17.

Daniel Yergin,

The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Making of the Modern World

(New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 222.

18.

Rebecca M. Nelson, Mary Jane Bolle, and Shayerah Ilias,

U.S. Trade and Investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Overview and

Issues for Congress

, Congressional Research Service report, January 20, 2012,

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/183739.pdf

.

19.

Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 2011

(Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2011),

http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF042/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489.xml?rskey=J2QZQv&result=1&q=Direction%20of%20Trade%20Statistics%20Yearbook,%202011

.

20.

Qian Xuewen, “Sino-Arab Economic Trade and Cooperation: Situations, Tasks, Issues, and Strategies,”

Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies

5, no. 4 (2011): 68.

21.

Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”

22.

Bernard Gordon, “Trading Up in Asia,”

Foreign Affairs

, July/August 2012,

www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134960

.

23.

Jane Perlez, “Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry with China,”

New York Times

, July 8, 2012, p. A7.

24.

Joseph Nye, “Energy Independence in an Interdependent World,”

Project Syndicate

, July 11, 2012,

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/energy-independence-in-an-interdependent-world

.

25.

“China to Build $2bn Railway for Iran,”

Telegraph

, September 7, 2010,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7985812/China-to-build-2bn-railway-for-Iran.html

.

26.

Myles Smith, “China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Brings Political Risks,”

Central Asia Institute Analyst

, Johns Hopkins University, March 7, 2012,

http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5731

.

27.

“Turkey, China Sign Two Nuclear Agreements During PM’s Visit,”

Daily Hurriyet

, April 10, 2012,

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-china-sign-two-nuclear-agreements-during-pms-visit.aspx?pageID=238&nID=18032&NewsCatID=348

. This article puts the 2010 trade figures at $19.5 billion; TUSIAD in Beijing puts the 2012 figures at $25 billion.

28.

Interviews with oil executives investing in Iraq, and with Turkish Kurdish Regional Government officials, August and September 2012.

29.

Kent Calder,

The New Continentalism: Energy and Twenty-First Century Eurasian Geopolitics

(New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), pp. xxxi–xxxii.

30.

Yergin,

Quest

, p. 210.

31.

James Fallows,

China Airborne

(New York: Pantheon, 2012), p. 98.

32.

Yergin,

Quest

, p. 172.

33.

Robert Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean,”

Foreign Affairs

, April/May 2009,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/64832

.

34.

Preparing for China’s Urban Billion

(San Francisco: McKinsey Global Institute, 2009), p. 18, cited in Fallows,

China Airborne

, p. 101.

35.

John Lee, “China’s Geostrategic Search for Oil,”

Washington Quarterly

35, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 75–92.

36.

Steve Coll,

Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power

(New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 240.

37.

Ibid., pp. 240–41.

38.

Yergin,

Quest

, pp. 222–23.

39.

Kalder,

The New Continentalism

, p. 3.

40.

John Mearsheimer,

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

(New York: Norton, 2001), pp. 360–402.

41.

Coll,

Private Empire

, p. 243.

42.

Robert Kaplan,

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

(New York: Random House, 2010).

43.

Kalder,

New Continentalism

, p. 36.

44.

Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, “Pakistan in Talks to Hand Port to China,”

Financial Times

, August 31, 2012,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c58608c-f2a6-11e1-ac41-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25gV7a6Qn

.

45.

Kalder,

New Continentalism

, pp. xxxi–xxxiii.

46.

Robert Kaplan, “The Geography of Chinese Power,”

Foreign Affairs

, May/June, 2010,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power?page=4

.

47.

Kalder,

New Continentalism

, p. 8.

48.

Susan Shirk,

China: Fragile Superpower

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 257–58.

49.

Kalder,

New Continentalism

, p. 23.

50.

Tony Smith,

The Pattern of Imperialism: The United States, Great Britain, and the Late-Industrializing World Since 1815

(New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

51.

Coll,

Private Empire

, p. 241.

52.

Kissinger,

On China

, pp. 513–30.

53.

See Arthur S. Herman,

To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World

(New York: HarperCollins, 2004).

54.

Dambisa Mayo,

Winner Takes All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World

(New York: Basic Books, 2012).

55.

Debora Brautigam,

The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).

56.

Vali Nasr, “International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and the Rise of Politics of Identity: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1997,”

Comparative Politics

32, no. 2 (January 2000): 171–90; Vali Nasr, “The Rise of Sunni Militancy in Pakistan: The Changing Role of Islamism and the Ulama in Society and Politics,”

Modern Asian Studies

34, no. 1 (January 2000): 139–80.

57.

Vali Nasr,

The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future

(New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.

58.

James Lamont and Farhan Bokhari, “China-Pakistan Military Links Upset India,”

Financial Times

, November 27, 2009,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d5497f0-db8d-11de-9424-00144feabdc0.html

.

59.

Ibid.

60.

“Pakistan, China Have Shared Interests in Peace Promotion: PM,”

Nation

, May 15, 2012,

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/15-May-2012/pakistan-china-have-shared-interests-in-peace-promotion-pm

.

61.

Dennis Kux,

The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies

(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001).

62.

Harsh V. Pant, “The Pakistan Thorn in China-India-U.S. Relations,”

Washington Quarterly

35, no. 1 (Winter 2012): 83.

63.

John W. Garver, “Sino-Indian Rapprochement and the Sino-Pakistan Entente,”

Political Science Quarterly

111, no. 2 (Summer 1996): 326–33.

64.

Pant, “Pakistan Thorn,” p. 86.

65.

Ibid., p. 85.

66.

R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, “Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Accounts Tell of Chinese Proliferation,”

Washington Post

, November 13, 2009,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111211060.html

.

67.

Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century.”

68.

Ibid.

69.

John W. Garver,

China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World

(Seattle: University of Washington, 2006).

70.

Scott Harold and Alireza Nader,

China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations

(Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2012).

71.

John Garver, Flynt Leverett, and Hillary Mann Leverett,

Moving (Slightly) Closer to Iran: China’s Shifting Calculus for Managing Its “Persian Gulf Dilemma”

(Washington, DC: Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2009).

72.

John Garver, “Is China Playing a Dual Game with Iran?”

Washington Quarterly

34, no. 1 (Winter 2011): 75–88; “The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010,

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx

.

73.

Fallows,

China Airborne

, p. 190.

74.

James Mann,

The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power

(New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 246–47.

CONCLUSION: AMERICA, THE PIVOTAL NATION

1.

Gideon Rachman,

Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011); Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum,

That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back

(New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011); Edward Luce,

Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent

(New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2012); Robert J. Lieber,

Power and Willpower in the American Future

(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012).

2.

Roger C. Altman and Richard N. Haass, “American Profligacy and American Power: The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility,”

Foreign Affairs

, November/December 2010,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66778/roger-c-altman-and-richard-n-haass/american-profligacy-and-american-power

. Brzezinski argues that restoring America’s position in the world must start with putting its economic house in order. Zbigniew Brzezinski,

Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power

(New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 37–74.

3.

Fareed Zakaria,

The Post-American World, Release 2.0

(New York: Norton, 2011); Charles A. Kupchan,

No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn

(New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).

4.

Joseph Nye,

The Future of Power

(New York: Public Affairs, 2011).

5.

Leslie H. Gelb provides an instructive examination of this issue in

Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy

(New York: Harper, 2009).

6.

Robert Kagan, “Not Fade Away: The Myth of American Decline,”

New Republic

, January 11, 2012,

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism

.

7.

“Fact Sheet: ‘A Moment of Opportunity’ in the Middle East and North Africa,” press release, May 19, 2011,

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/19/fact-sheet-moment-opportunity-middle-east-and-north-africa

.

8.

Hassan Bin Talal, “U.S. Can’t Abandon the Middle East,”

Los Angeles Times

, April 17, 2012,

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-hassan-middle-east-engagement-20120417

.

9.

Vali Nasr,

Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World

(New York: Free Press, 2009), pp. 252–63.

10.

Brzezinski,

Strategic Vision

, p. 190.

11.

G. John Ikenberry,

Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order

(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

12.

Robert O. Keohane, “Hegemony and After,”

Foreign Affairs

, July/August 2012,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137690/robert-o-keohane/hegemony-and-after

.

13.

G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of the Liberal World Order,”

Foreign Affairs

, May/June 2011,

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67730/g-john-ikenberry/the-future-of-the-liberal-world-order

.

About the Author

Vali Nasr is dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and the bestselling author of The Shia Revival and Forces of Fortune. From 2009 to 2011, he served as senior adviser to Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributor to Bloomberg View; he lives in Washington, D.C.

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Also by Vali Nasr

Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World

The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future

Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (with Ali Gheissari)

Islamic Leviathan: Islam and the Making of State Power

Mawdudi and the Making of Islamic Revivalism

The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: The Jama’at-i Islami of Pakistan