The Tsunami Countdown

ELEVEN

9:57 a.m.

It had been half an hour since the tide gauge reading from Christmas Island was supposed to be transmitted, and Kai was growing more worried by the minute. Reggie’s calls to Steve Bryant still went unanswered. “What the hell is going on down there?” Reggie said to no one in particular.

The phone rang, and Kai swept the receiver up in the hope that it was the operator with good news.

“Dr. Tanaka, this is Shirley Nagle, the operator you spoke with earlier.”

“You got through?” Kai asked hopefully.

“Well, no, I haven’t,” she said. Kai slumped in disappointment. “But I wanted to call you back, since you said it was so urgent. I asked another operator here, Chris, if he had any other ideas. He said that, in addition to the under-sea cable, there’s a backup satellite hookup on the island. But the funny thing is, I’m not getting through on that, either.”

“Why is that funny?”

“Chris swears up and down that the satellite transmitter has a backup generator in case of power loss, so I should be getting a connection, even if the main island power is down. But I’m getting nothing. No signal whatsoever. It’s like the island isn’t there anymore.”

“Jesus,” Kai said, the implications too terrible to grasp. It’s like the island isn’t there anymore.

“Excuse me?” Shirley said.

“Nothing. Can you please keep trying to reach them?”

“Sure. We’ve already got a couple of other people on it. I’ll let you know as soon as we get through.”

Her voice sounded upbeat, but Kai didn’t share her optimism. He had the terrible feeling that they’d never hear from anyone on the island again.

There were at least three thousand people on Christmas Island. Kai couldn’t accept the possibility that it had been wiped out by a tsunami on his watch. He felt the beginnings of a headache and popped a couple of aspirins from a bottle in his desk.

Reggie saw the look on Kai’s face. “What’s the matter?” he asked.

Kai told him about the satellite transmitter.

“I think a tsunami hit Christmas Island,” he said. “A big one.”

“How is that possible?” Reggie said.

“I don’t know. Could it have been a landslide? Maybe the seamount has been building for a while and now a major eruption triggered a landslide down the face of it.”

“No way. There have been no major seismic disturbances in that region for the past ten years. I checked the database.” Reggie was already working on his bid to get credit for his discovery. “The seamount couldn’t be big enough to cause a major landslide at this point.”

“And the quake magnitude? Have we gotten confirmation back from NEIC yet?”

“I just checked again,” Reggie said. “NEIC estimates 6.9.”

The Southeast Asian tsunami resulted from a quake with a moment magnitude of 9.0, over one thousand times more powerful than this earthquake. An earthquake as small as 6.9 had never spawned an oceanwide tsunami. There just wasn’t enough energy or motion of the seafloor to generate large waves that could travel great distances.

The conditions didn’t add up. The earthquake shouldn’t have spawned a tsunami, and yet they couldn’t get any signal or communication from Christmas Island.

Kai picked up the sheet with the wave arrival times. Johnston Island would be next in about twenty minutes, then the Big Island twenty minutes after that, followed by Oahu an hour and twenty-five minutes from now. Johnston Island had a real-time tide gauge, so that would be their next chance to get data about a potential wave.

“When will we get the wave height data from the DART buoy?” Kai asked Reggie.

“The max wave height at the buoy will be about five minutes after it reaches Johnston. The captain on the Miller Freeman said they’ll have the satellite uplink ready in ten minutes, which will be just enough time. So it looks like the tide gauge at Johnston is our first chance to see if it’s really a tsunami.”

Up to this point, Brad had quietly been watching events unfold, content merely to spectate, but now he couldn’t resist interjecting.

“You mean, you’re willing to wait more than twenty minutes until you know for sure?” he said.

“What do you want us to do?” Reggie responded. “Evacuate a million people because of a downed power line?”

“Do you want to take the chance that they could be killed because you thought it was just a downed power line?”

“I’m just saying that we need more evidence,” Reggie said defensively. “I mean, sure, if we had a 9.0 earthquake on our hands, I’d issue the warning in a second. But to completely wipe out Christmas Island and our tide gauge, the tsunami would have to be huge—at least twenty feet high. There’s no way a 6.9 quake causes a tsunami that big.”

“Are you sure?”

“I’ve researched every major tsunami in the last sixty years,” Reggie said. “There is absolutely no historic precedent for it. Besides, do you realize how much an evacuation costs? We’ll be crucified if we’re wrong, especially with this kind of flimsy data. I say we wait twenty minutes. If the tide gauge on Johnston craps out, too, then I’m all for a warning.”

Twenty more minutes. For a massive evacuation, every minute would count. With less than an hour before a potential tsunami hit the southern tip of the Big Island, Kai had to make the call. In his mind he imagined the headlines vilifying him for a massive unnecessary evacuation. The internal NOAA investigations into why he ignored long-established procedures. The political reprisals condemning yet another federal employee who couldn’t handle the position. As Kai thought about it, the retaliatory consequences became clear to him. His tenure would be cut short by what would be seen as a lack of judgment, that he didn’t have the experience for the job.

On the other hand, something deep down was telling him that this wasn’t just a power disruption. He couldn’t pinpoint where the cognitive dissonance was coming from, the subtle clash of information that was telling his subconscious mind it didn’t fit together. Logically, there was little reason to be worried about a major tsunami. But they couldn’t rule it out, either, and that’s what scared him the most.

In the end, Kai’s choice simply came down to what was best for his family. His daughter was on the beach that morning. His wife was in a hotel no more than a hundred yards from the ocean. He could live with losing his job because he made a poor decision; he couldn’t live with himself if his wife and daughter died because he made a poor decision.

“We’ve already waited thirty minutes,” Kai said softly. “We can’t wait any longer.” His doubt made him sound unconvincing. When Kai realized Reggie and Brad were looking at him, hoping to see confidence, he cleared his throat and stood up straighter. “Reggie, send out the warning. I’ll get on the phone and talk to the duty officer over at Hawaii State Civil Defense.” Like the PTWC, HSCD would be minimally staffed on a holiday.

“Are you sure?” Reggie said. “We’ve got even less to go on than the one we issued last year.”

A mixture of concern and support etched Brad’s face. Even as a bystander, he knew this was a tough call.

But Kai’s moment of hesitation was over. He couldn’t let his misgivings influence others, diminishing the sense of urgency about the evacuation. If a real tsunami was coming, they needed to act quickly and decisively.

“I’m sure. Do it. Issue the warning.”

“Okay,” Reggie said. “I’m glad it’s your call. I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes.”

Reggie went to the computer and started typing in the commands that would issue a tsunami warning to every government agency in the Pacific. Kai had just made a $50 million decision.