Bad Science

NOTES

Chapter 1: Matter

2 ‘We sent Alex’: Daily Mirror (4 January 2003)

6 ‘The candles work by’: http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/southeast/ sites/mind/pages/hopi.shtml

6 ‘a paper published’: Seely DR, Quigley SM, Langman AW. Ear candles – efficacy and safety. Laryngoscope (October1996); 106 (10): 1226–9.

7 ‘a published study’: Ibid.

11 ‘These cleansing and’: Green EC, Honwana A. Indigenous healing of war-affected children in Africa. IK Notes No. 10. Knowledge and Learning Center Africa Region, World Bank Washington (1999), available: http://www.africaaction.org/ docs99/viol9907. htm

Chapter 4: Homeopathy

39 ‘In one study’: Marshall T. Reducing unnecessary consultation – a case of NNT? Bandolier (1997); 44 (4): 1–3

41 ‘But the point of the study’: MacManus MP, Matthews JP, Wada M, Wirth A, Worotniuk V, Ball DL. Unexpected long-term survival after low-dose palliative radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Cancer (1 March 2006); 106 (5): 1110–16.

46 ‘a very theatrical trial’: Majeed AW et al. Randomised, prospective, single-blind comparison of laparoscopic versus small-incision cholecystectomy. Lancet (13 April 1996); 347 (9007): 989–94.

46 ‘a review of blinding’: Schultz KF, Chalmers I, Hayes RJ, Altman DG. Empirical evidence of bias: Dimensions of methodological quality associated with estimates of treatment effects in controlled trials. JAMA (1995); 273: 408–12

46 ‘review of trials’: Ernst E, White AR. Acupuncture for back pain: a metaanalysis of randomised controlled trials. Arch Int Med (1998); 158: 2235–41

47 Diagram: Ibid.

48 ‘Let us take out’: van Helmont JB. Oriatrike, or Physick Refined: The Common Errors Therein Refuted and the Whole are Reformed and Rectified. Lodowick-Loyd (1662): 526. Available at (http://www.jameslindlibrary.org

50 ‘two landmark studies’: Khan KS, Daya S, Jadad AR. The importance of quality of primary studies in producing unbiased systematic reviews. Arch Intern Med (1996), 156: 661–6; Moher D, Pham B, Jones A et al. Does quality of reports of randomised trials affect estimates of intervention efficacy reported in metaanalyses? Lancet (1998); 352: 609–13

53 Diagram: Ernst E, Pittler MH. Re-analysis of previous metaanalysis of clinical trials of homeopathy. J Clin Epi (2000); 53 (11): 1188

56 ‘A landmark metaanalysis’: Shang A, Huwiler-Müntener K, Nartey L, Jüni P, Dörig S, Sterne JA, Pewsner D, Egger M. Are the clinical effects of homoeopathy placebo effects? Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy and allopathy. Lancet (27 August–2 September 2005); 366 (9487): 726–32

58 ‘One study actually thought’: Tallon D, Chard J, Dieppe P. Relation between agendas of the research community and the research consumer. Lancet (2000); 355: 2037–40

61 ‘They might flick’: BBC Radio 4 Case Notes (19 July 2005)

Chapter 5: The Placebo Effect

63 ‘Shall [the placebo]’: The placebo in medicine. Med Press (18 June 1890): 642

64 ‘Henry Beecher’: Beecher HK. The powerful placebo. JAMA (24 December 1955); 159 (17): 1602–6

64 ‘Peter Parker’: Skrabanek P, McCormick J.Fads and Fallacies in Medicine. Prometheus Books (1990)

66 ‘Daniel Moerman’: Moerman DE. General medical effectiveness and human biology: placebo effects in the treatment of ulcer disease. Med Anth Quarterly (August 1983); 14; 4: 3–16

67 ‘in a different dataset’: de Craen AJ, Moerman DE, Heisterkamp SH, Tytgat GN, Tijssen JG, Kleijnen J. Placebo effect in the treatment of duodenal ulcer. Br J Clin Pharmacol (December 1999); 48 (6): 853–60

68 ‘Blackwell [1972]’: Blackwell B, Bloomfield SS, Buncher CR. Demonstration to medical students of placebo responses and non-drug factors. Lancet (10 June 1972); 1 (7763): 1279–82

68 ‘Another study’: Schapira K, McClelland HA, Griffiths NR, Newell DJ. Study on the effects of tablet colour in the treatment of anxiety states. BMJ (23 May 1970); 1 (5707): 446–9

68 ‘a survey of the colour’: de Craen AJ, Roos PJ, Leonard de Vries A, Kleijnen J. Effect of colour of drugs: systematic review of perceived effect of drugs and of their effectiveness. BMJ (21–28 December 1996); 313 (7072): 1624–6

68 ‘In 1970’: Hussain MZ, Ahad A. Tablet colour in anxiety states. BMJ (22 August 1970); 3 (5720): 466

69 ‘Route of administration’: Grenfell RF, Briggs AH, Holland WC. Double blind study of the treatment of hypertension. JAMA (1961) 176: 124–8; De Craen AJM, Tijssen JGP, de Gans J, Kleijnen J. Placebo effect in the acute treatment of migraine: subcutaneous placebos are better than oral placebos. J Neur (2000) 247: 183–8; Gracely RH, Dubner R, McGrath PA. Narcotic analgesia: fentanyl reduces the intensity but not the unpleasantness of painful tooth pulp sensations. Science (23 March 1979); 203 (4386): 1261–3

69 ‘the bizarre story of packaging’: Kaptchuk TJ, Stason WB, Davis RB, Legedza AR, Schnyer RN, Kerr CE, Stone DA, Nam BH, Kirsch I, Goldman RH. Sham device v inert pill: randomised controlled trial of two placebo treatments. BMJ (18 February 2006); 332 (7538): 391–7

69 ‘Branthwaite and Cooper’: Branthwaite A, Cooper P. Analgesic effects of branding in treatment of headaches. BMJ (Clin Res ed) (1981); 282: 1576–8

70 ‘a recent study’: Waber et al. Commercial features of placebo and therapeutic efficacy. JAMA (2008); 299: 1016–17

70 ‘a paper currently in press’: Ginoa F. Do we listen to advice just because we paid for it? The impact of advice cost on its use. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2008, Article in Press (published online 25 April 2008). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.03.001

70 ‘Montgomery and Kirsch’: Montgomery GH, Kirsch I. Mechanisms of placebo pain reduction: an empirical investigation. Psych Science (1996) 7: 174–6

71 ‘a placebo-controlled trial’: Cobb LA, Thomas GI, Dillard DH, Merendino KA, Bruce RA. An evaluation of internal-mammary-artery ligation by a double-blind technic. N Eng J Med (28 May 1959); 260 (22): 1115–18

72 ‘A Swedish study’: Linde C, Gadler F, Kappenberger L, Rydén L. Placebo effect of pacemaker implantation in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. PIC Study Group. Am J Cardiol (15 March 1999); 83 (6): 903–7

72 ‘Electrical machines have’: Johnson AG. Surgery as a placebo. Lancet (22 October 1994); 344 (8930): 1140–2

72 ‘an elegant study’: Crum AJ, Langer EJ. Mind-set matters: exercise and the placebo effect. Psych Science (February 2007); 18 (2): 165–71

73 ‘Gryll and Katahn’: Gryll SL, Katahn M. Situational factors contributing to the placebos effect. Psychopharmacology (Berl) (1978); 57: 253–61

74 ‘Gracely [1985]’: Gracely RH, Dubner R, Deeter WR, Wolskee PJ. Clinicians’ expectations influence placebo analgesia. Lancet (5 January 1985); 1 (8419): 43

75 ‘In 1987, Thomas’: Thomas KB. General practice consultations: is there any point in being positive? BMJ (Clin Res ed) (9 May 1987); 294 (6581): 1200–2

76 ‘Raymond Tallis’: Tallis R. Hippocratic Oaths: Medicine and its Discontents. Atlantic (2004)

77 ‘Quesalid’: Lévi-Strauss C. The sorcerer and his magic. In Structural Anthropology (trans Jacobson C, Schoef BG). Basic Books (1963)

78 ‘a classic study from 1965’: Park LC, Covi L. Nonblind placebo trial: an exploration of neurotic patients’ responses to placebo when its inert content is disclosed. Arch Gen Psych (April 1965); 12: 36–45

78 ‘Dr Stewart Wolf’: Wolf S. Effects of suggestion and conditioning on the action of chemical agents in human subjects; the pharmacology of placebos. J Clin Invest (January 1950); 29 (1): 100–9

79 ‘It’s been shown’: de la Fuente-Fernández R, Ruth TJ, Sossi V, Schulzer M, Calne DB, Stoessl AJ. Expectation and dopamine release: mechanism of the placebo effect in Parkinson’s disease. Science (10 August 2001); 293 (5532): 1164–6

79 ‘Zubieta [2005]’: Zubieta JK, Bueller JA, Jackson LR, Scott DJ, Xu Y, Koeppe RA, Nichols TE, Stohler CS. Placebo effects mediated by endogenous opioid activity on mu-opioid receptors. J Neur (24 August 2005); 25 (34): 7754–62

80 ‘Researchers have measured’: Ader R, Cohen N. Behaviorally conditioned immunosuppression. Psychosom Med (July–August 1975); 37 (4): 333–40

80 ‘researchers gave healthy’: Goebel MU, Trebst AE, Steiner J, Xie YF, Exton MS, Frede S, Canbay AE, Michel MC, Heemann U, Schedlowski M. Behavioral conditioning of immunosuppression is possible in humans. FASEB J (December 2002); 16 (14): 1869–73

80 ‘Researchers have even’: Buske-Kirschbaum A, Kirschbaum C, Stierle H, Lehnert H, Hellhammer D. Conditioned increase of natural killer cell activity (NKCA) in humans. Psychosom Med (March–April 1992); 54 (2): 123–32

80 ‘From survey data’: Goodwin JS, Goodwin JM, Vogel AV. Knowledge and use of placebos by house officers and nurses. Ann Intern Med (July 1979); 91 (1): 106–10

80 ‘You are a placebo responder’:? Meaning, Medicine and the ‘Placebo Effect’ by Moerman DE, Cambridge University Press 2002, p.34, summarising secondary references to five further studies

81 ‘one of the most impressive’: Moerman DE, Harrington A. Making space for the placebo effect in pain medicine. Sem in Pain Med (March 2005); 3 (1 Spec issue): 2–6

81 ‘Another study from 2002’: Walsh BT, Seidman SN, Sysko R, Gould M. Placebo response in studies of major depression: variable, substantial, and growing. JAMA (10 April 2002); 287 (14): 1840–7

84 ‘one study found’: Ernst E, Schmidt K. Aspects of MMR. BMJ (2002); 325: 597

Chapter 6: The Nonsense du Jour

89 ‘It is impossible’: Harry G. Frankfurt, On Bullshit. Princeton University Press (2005) http://press.princeton.edu/video/ frankfurt

105 ‘over $50 billion’:http://www.nutraingredients-usa. com/news/ng.asp?n=85087

105 ‘One was in Finland’: Alpha-Tocopherol Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study Group. The effect of vitamin E and beta carotene on the incidence of lung and other cancers in male smokers. New Eng J Med (1994); 330: 1029–35

106 ‘Two groups of people’: Thornquist MD, Omenn GS, Goodman GE, Grizzle JE, Rosenstock L, Barnhart S, Anderson GL, Hammar S, Balmes J, Cherniack M. Statistical design and monitoring of the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET). Control Clin Trials (1993); 14: 308–24; Omenn GS, Goodman GE, Thornquist MD, Balmes J, Cullen MR, Glass A, et al. Effects of a combination of beta carotene and vitamin A on lung cancer and cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med (1996); 334: 1150–5. http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/ijlink? linkType=ABST&journalCode=nejm&resid=334/18/1150]

106 ‘The most up-to-date’: Vivekananthan DP et al. Use of antioxidant vitamins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease: metaanalysis of randomised trials. Lancet (2003); 361: 2017–23 http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140673603136379/abstract

107 ‘The Cochrane review’: Caraballoso M, Sacristan M, Serra C, Bonfill X. Drugs for preventing lung cancer in healthy people. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2003); 2

107 ‘a Cochrane review’: Bjelakovic G, Nikolova D, Gluud LL, Simonetti RG, Gluud C. Antioxidant supplements for prevention of mortality in healthy participants and patients with various diseases. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2008); 2

108 ‘Dr Benjamin Spock’: Chalmers I. Invalid health information is potentially lethal. BMJ (2001); 322 (7292): 998

109 ‘price-fixing cartel’: John M. Connor Kluwer, Global Pricefixing: Our Customers Are the Enemy. Springer (2001). Available online: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=7M8n4UN23WsC

109 ‘Doubt is our product’: David Michaels (ed.) Doubt is Their Product: How Industry’s Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. Oxford University Press (2008)

Chapter 7: Dr Gillian McKeith PhD

114 ‘Dudley J. LeBlanc’: Ann Anderson, Snake Oil, Hustlers and Hambones: The American Medicine Show. McFarland (2005)

121 ‘During the war’: Commencement Speech from Caltech 1974, also in Richard Feynman. Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman!: Adventures of a Curious Character. WW Norton (1985)

123 Clayton College of Natural Health website: http://www.ccnh.edu/about/programs/tuition. aspx

Chapter 8: ‘Pill Solves Complex Social Problem’

136 ‘a large, well-conducted’: Hutchings J, Bywater T, Daley D, Gardner F, Whitaker C, Jones K, Eames C, Edwards RT. Parenting intervention in Sure Start services for children at risk of developing conduct disorder: pragmatic randomised controlled trial. BMJ (2007); 334: 678

136 ‘cost-effectiveness analysis’: Edwards RT, Ó Céilleachair A, Bywater T, Hughes DA, Hutchings J. Parenting programme for parents of children at risk of developing conduct disorder: cost effectiveness analysis. BMJ (2007); 334: 682

146 ‘one study by a researcher’: Richardson AJ, Montgomery P. The Oxford-Durham study: a randomized, controlled trial of dietary supplementation with fatty acids in children with developmental coordination disorder. Pediatrics (2005); 115 (5): 1360–6

153 ‘disease-mongering’: Moynihan R, Doran E, Henry D Disease mongering is now part of the global health debate. PLoS Med (2008); 5 (5): e106. doi:10.1371/journal. pmed.0050106 A good place to start your reading on disease-mongering

159 ‘Professor Hywel Williams’: Williams HC. Evening primrose oil for atopic dermatitis. BMJ (2003); 327: 1358–9

160 ‘the most popular food supplement product in the UK’: ‘The four markets dominating EU supplements’ http://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/news/ng.asp? n=85087; “Galenica assumes control of Equazen Nutraceuticals based in the UK”. Press release. http://www.galenica.com/Galenica/en/ archive/media/releases/2006_12_04_21398644_meldung.php

Chapter 9: Professor Patrick Holford

164 ‘He has claimed that he has corrected his book’: Professor Holford did not change the main text in the book chapter. He added some text to the note at the back, in a small font, referencing some other papers where people did actually, at least, tip both AZT and vitamin C onto cells in a dish (this changes nothing), and a demand for more research, none of which, I note, he has offered to fund from his own extensive corporate involvement in this $50 billion sector. He is, after all, Head of Science and Education at the food supplement pill company BioCare, which sells a vitamin C pill in tubs with his face on. To be fair, he did however once deliver my favourite line from five years of writing in this area: ‘Perhaps Goldacre, who purports to be the campaigner for evidence-based medicine, could provide some evidence that high-dose vitamin C has no effect against HIV AIDS.’

166 ‘systematic review from Cochrane’: Douglas RM, Hemilä H, Chalker E, Treacy B. Vitamin C for preventing and treating the common cold. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (1998); 1. Date of last update: 14 May 2007 (Cochrane reviews are constantly updated, and all previous versions are available, so you can see what they said at various times in the past too)

167 ‘Dr Richard Smith’: Smith R. Investigating the previous studies of a fraudulent author. BMJ (2005); 331: 288–291; Hamblin T. The Secret Life of Dr Chandra. BMJ (2006); 332: 369

167 ‘three-part investigative documentary series’: The documentary on Dr Chandra can be watched online at: http://www.cbc.ca/national/ news/chandra/

167 ‘a retrospective re-analysis’: Hemilä H, Herman ZS. Vitamin C and the common cold: a retrospective analysis of Chalmers’ review. J Am Coll Nutr (April 1995); 14 (2): 116–23.

169 ‘a systematic review and metaanalysis’: Vivekananthan DP et al. Use of antioxidant vitamins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease: metaanalysis of randomised trials. Lancet (2003); 361: 2017–23

178 ‘the QAA’s report’: http://www.qaa.ac.uk/reviews/reports/institutional/Luton1105/ RG162UniLuton. pdf

Chapter 10: Is Mainstream Medicine Evil?

182 ‘From the state of current knowledge’: http://clinicalevidence.bmj.com/ceweb/about/knowledge. jsp

182 ‘These real-world studies’: The classic general medicine reference for this is Ellis J, Mulligan I, Rowe J, Sackett DL. Inpatient general medicine is evidence based. A-Team, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine. Lancet (12 August 1995); 346 (8972): 407–10. There have been numerous copycat studies in various specialities, and rather than list them here, an excellent review of them is maintained at http://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/ir/percent. html

183 ‘all of those studies’: Mayor S. Audit identifies the most read BMJ research papers. BMJ (2007); 334: 554–5; Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Risk of myocardial infarction in patients taking cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitors or conventional nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs: population based nested case-control analysis. BMJ (2005); 330: 1366; Gunnell J, Saperia J, Ashby D. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and suicide in adults: metaanalysis of drug company data from placebo controlled, randomised controlled trials submitted to the MHRA’s safety review. BMJ (2005); 330: 385; Fergusson D et al. Association between suicide attempts and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors: systematic review of randomised controlled trials. BMJ (2005); 330: 396

187 ‘whole areas can be orphaned’: Iribarne A. Orphan diseases and adoptive initiatives. JAMA (2003); 290: 116; Francisco A. Drug development for neglected diseases. Lancet (2002); 360: 1102

190 ‘If you follow the references’: Safer DJ. Design and reporting modifications in industry-sponsored comparative psychopharmacology trials. J Nerv Ment Dis (2002); 190: 583–92

190 ‘various studies have shown’: Modell et al. (1997); Montejo-Gonzalez et al. (1997); Zajecka et al. (1999); Preskorn (1997): in Safer, ibid.

193 ‘If the difference’: Pocock SJ. When (not) to stop a clinical trial for benefit. JAMA (2005); 294: 2228–30

194 ‘a systematic review’: Lexchin J, Bero LA, Djulbegovic B, Clark O. Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality. BMJ (2003) 326: 1167–70

194 ‘One review of bias’: Rochon PA, Gurwitz JH, Simms RW, Fortin PR, Felson DT, Minaker KL, Chalmers TC. A study of manufacturer-supported trials of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs in the treatment of arthritis. Arch Intern Med. (24 January 1994); 154 (2): 157–63

194 ‘when the methodological flaws’: Lexchin J, Bero LA, Djulbegovic B, Clark O. Pharmaceutical industry sponsorship and research outcome and quality: systematic review. BMJ (31 May 2003); 326 (7400): 1167–70

196 ‘In 1995, only’: Schmidt K, Pittler MH, Ernst E. Bias in alternative medicine is still rife but is diminishing. BMJ (3 November 2001); 323 (7320): 1071

196 ‘A review in 1998’: Vickers A, Goyal N, Harland R, Rees R. Do certain countries produce only positive results? A systematic review of controlled trials. Control Clin Trials (April 1998); 19 (2): 159–66

198 ‘a paper has even found’: Dubben H, Beck-Bornholdt H. Systematic review of publication bias in studies on publication bias. BMJ (2005); 331: 433–4

198 ‘published a paper’: Turner EH, Matthews AM, Linardatos E, Tell RA, Rosenthal R. Selective publication of antidepressant trials and its influence on apparent efficacy. N Eng J Med (17 January 2008); 358 (3): 252–60

199 ‘A classic piece of detective work’: Tramer MR, Reynolds DJM, Moore RA, McQuay, H J. Impact of covert duplicate publication on metaanalysis: a case study. BMJ (1997) 315: 635–40

200 ‘When we carried out’: Cowley AJ et al. Int Journ Card (1993) 40: 161–6

201 ‘the three highest-ranking papers’: Audit identifies the most read BMJ research papers. BMJ (17 March 2007); 334: 554–5

202 ‘It is a shame’: Scolnick EM. Email communication to Deborah Shapiro, Alise Reicin and Alan Nies re: Vigor. 9 March 2000. http://www.vioxxdocuments.com/Documents/Krumholz_Viox x/Scolnick2000. pdf]

202 ‘The New England Journal of Medicine’: Curfman GD, Morrissey S, Drazen JM. Expression of concern reaffirmed. NEJM (16 March 2006); 354 (11):1193

203 ‘a US company’: Gottlieb S. Firm tried to block report on failure of AIDS vaccine. BMJ (2000); 321: 1173

203 ‘The drug company’: Nathan D, Weatherall D. Academia and industry: lessons from the unfortunate events in Toronto. Lancet; 353; 9155: 771–2

205 ‘These adverts have been’: Gilbody et al. Benefits and harms of direct to consumer advertising: a systematic review. Qual Saf Health Care (2005); 14: 246–50 http://qshc.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/14/4/246

Chapter 11: How the Media Promote the Public Misunderstanding of Science

211 ‘Nick Davies’: Davies N. Flat Earth News. Chatto & Windus (2008)

218 ‘Research on smoking’: Proctor RN. Schairer and Schöniger’s forgotten tobacco epidemiology and the Nazi quest for racial purity. Int. J. Epidemiol 30: 31–4

219 ‘John Ioannidis’: Ioannidis JPA. Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med (2005) 2 (8): e124

Chapter 12: Why Clever People Believe Stupid Things

227 ‘a classic experiment’: Gilovich T, Vallone R, Tversky, A. The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences. Cog Psych (1985); 17: 295–314

229 ‘ingeniously pared-down experiment’: Schaffner PE. Specious learning about reward and punishment. J Pers Soc Psych (June 1985); 48 (6): 1377–86

231 ‘In one experiment’: Snyder M, Cantor N. Testing hypotheses about other people: the use of historical knowledge, J Exp Soc Psych (1979); 15: 330–42

232 ‘The classic demonstration’: Lord CG, Ross L, Lepper MR. Biased assimilation and attitude polarisation: the effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. J Pers Soc Psyc (1979); 37: 2098–109

234 ‘In one, subjects’: Tversky A, Kahneman D. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cog Psych (1973), 5: 207–32

236 ‘Asch’s experiments’: Asch SE. Opinions and social pressure. Sci Am (1955); 193: 31–5

237 ‘the behaviour of sporting teams’: Frank MG, Gilovich T. The dark side of self-and social-perception: black uniforms and aggression in professional sports. J Pers Soc Psych (January 1988); 54 (1): 74–85

238 ‘It’s not safe’: The experiments in this chapter, and many more, can be found in Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland and How We Know What Isn’t So by Thomas Gilovich

Chapter 13: Bad Stats

239 ‘Let’s say the risk’: Gigerenzer G. Reckoning with Risk. Penguin (2003)

240 ‘Natural frequencies’: Butterworth et al. Statistics: what seems natural? Science (4 May 2001): 853

240 ‘The other methods’: Hoffrage U, Lindsey S, Hertwig R, Gigerenzer G. Communicating statistical information. Science (22 December 2000); 290 (5500): 2261–2

241 ‘there are studies’: Hoffrage U, Gigerenzer G. Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences. Acad Med (1998); 73: 538–40

253 ‘the same test’: Gigerenzer G. Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World. Oxford University Press (2000)

253 ‘Let’s think about’: Szmukler G. Risk assessment: ‘numbers’ and ‘values’. Psych Bull (2003) 27: 205–7

257 ‘a small collection’: www.qurl.com/lucia

Chapter 14: Health Scares

262 ‘An academic paper’: Manning N, Wilson AP, Ridgway GL. Isolation of MRSA from communal areas in a teaching hospital. J Hosp Infect (March 2004); 56 (3): 250–1

268 ‘Kruger and Dunning’: Kruger J, Dunning D. Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments’. J Pers Soc Psych (1999); 77; 6: 121–34

269 ‘In 1957, a baby’: Brynner R, Stephens TD. Dark Remedy: The Impact of Thalidomide and its Revival as a Vital Medicine. Perseus Books (2001)

270 ‘Philip Knightley’: Excerpted in Pilger J (ed.). Tell me no Lies. Cape (2004)

270 ‘Many years later’: Thalidomide hero found guilty of scientific fraud. New Scientist (27 February 1993)

Chapter 15: The Media’s MMR Hoax

278 ‘12 children’: Wakefield AJ, Murch SH, Anthony A et al. Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder in children. Lancet (1998); 351 (9103): 637–41

280 ‘one of the few’: e.g. Chess S. Autism in children with congenital rubella. J Autism Child Schizophr (January–March 1971); 1 (1): 33–47

280 ‘it is investigating’: http://briandeer.com/wakefield/wakefielddeal.htm

282 ‘including the BBC’: No jabs, no school says labour MP. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7392510.stm

288 ‘one survey’: Schmidt K, Ernst E, Andrews. Survey shows that some homoeopaths and chiropractors advise against MMR. BMJ (14 September 2002); 325 (7364): 597

288 ‘Thirty-two per cent’: Hargreaves I, Lewis J, Speers T. Towards a better map: science, the public and the media, Economic and Social Research Council (2003). http://www.esrc.ac. uk/ ESRCInfoCentre/Images/Mapdocfinal_tcm6–5505. pdf

289 ‘peak of the media’: Boyce T. Health, Risk and News: The MMR Vaccine and the Media. Peter Lang Publishing Inc. (2007)

290 ‘published a paper’: Ibid.

291 ‘not a single one’: Durant J, Lindsey N. GM foods and the media. Select Committee on Science and Technology, Third Report, Appendix 5 www.publications.parliament. uk/pa/ld199900/ldselect/ldsctech/ 38/3810. htm

295 ‘a systematic review’: Smeeth L, Cook C, Fombonne E, Heavey L, Rodrigues LC, Smith PG et al. MMR vaccination and pervasive developmental disorders: a case-control study. Lancet (2004); 364 (9438): 963–9

297 ‘This study was big’: Madsen KM, Hviid A, Vestergaard M, Schendel D, Wohlfahrt J, Thorsen P et al. A population-based study of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination and autism. N Eng J Med (2002); 347 (19): 1477–82

300 ‘Scientists in America’: http://www.telegraph.co. uk/news/ main. jhtml? xml=/news/2002/06/23/nmmr23.xml

302 ‘a very similar study’: Afzal MA, Ozoemena LC, O’Hare A et al. Absence of detectable measles virus genome sequence in blood of autistic children who have had their MMR vaccination during the routine childhood immunization schedule of UK. J Med Virology (2006); 78; 5: 623–30

303 ‘Another major paper’: D’Souza, Y, et al. No evidence of persisting measles virus in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from children with autism spectrum disorder. Pediatrics (4 October 2006); 118: 1664–75

306 ‘In some parts’: http://www. westminsterpct. nhs. uk/news/mmr0405. htm; Pearce et al. Factors associated with uptake of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) and use of single antigen vaccines in a contemporary UK cohort: prospective cohort study. BMJ (2008); 336 (7647): 754

307 ‘a systematic review’: Chapman S et al. Med J Aust. (5 September 2005); 183 (5): 247–50. Grilli R et al. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (2001); 4: CD000389

307 ‘A mischievous paper’: Phillips DP et al. N Engl J Med (1991); 325: 1180–3

308 ‘systematic quantitative surveys’: Schwitzer. G PLoS Med (2008); 5 (5): e95

308 ‘Meanwhile, the incidence’: HPA. Confirmed measles mumps and rubella cases in 2007: England and Wales. Health Protection Report (2008); cited 9 April 2008; 2 (8). http://www.hpa.org.uk/hpr/archives/2008/hpr0808.pdf

309 ‘Congenital rubella syndrome’: Fitzpatrick M. MMR: risk, choice, chance. Brit Med Bulletin (2004); 69: 143–53

312 ‘epidemic in 2005’: Gupta RK, Best J, MacMahon E. Mumps and the UK epidemic. BMJ (14 May 2005); 330: 1132–5 And Another Thing

319 ‘The true cost’: http://www.economist.com/research/Economics/alphabetic. cfm?letter=O