Full Force and Effect

21

The conference room in the Situation Room below the West Wing began filling with principals before nine a.m. The President arrived soon after, and he waved the eleven men and women in front of him back to their seats.

The focus of today’s discussion, as written on the agenda and left at each place setting, was almost comically simplistic.

“United Nations sanctions options in pursuit of solutions re North Korea.”

The United States and the United Nations had spent most of the past seventy years pursuing solutions re North Korea, and when Ryan noticed the heading on his briefing paper he let out a slight groan and mumbled that he sure hoped they’d have their solution figured out before lunch.

In front of him at the table was his national security staff, mostly, but also his secretary of commerce and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as well as his chief of staff, Arnie Van Damm.

The conference began with a discussion by Jay Canfield of the specific tactics the North Koreans were using to move money, from banks in the Cayman Islands and Singapore, where large deposits had been made, to smaller accounts in Brunei, Antigua, Mexico, Singapore, and other locations. It was clear several large payments had been made in the past few months, but the CIA did not have the access into the banking systems to know where the money had gone.

After a lot of detailed and often arcane explanations, Canfield wrapped up his presentation in plain speak. “Suffice it to say, Mr. President, that somebody is paying North Korea a hell of a lot of money, and North Korea, in turn, is wasting no time in blowing a hell of a lot of money. Who is paying them, and the full scope of what they are buying, is still unknown to us.”

Next the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Danielle Rush, laid out her proposal, developed along with the secretaries of state, commerce, and treasury, to seek a UN resolution enhancing existing economic sanctions against the state of North Korea.

The President listened to the twenty-minute presentation in silence.

When it was over Ryan slid his fingers under his eyeglasses and rubbed his tired eyes. “I get that we need to stop these transactions. I just don’t see what the hell we will achieve by going to the United Nations for another round of economic sanctions on Korea. All this talk about what the United Nations is going to do. The UN can’t do anything. It’s not an enforcement body. It relies on its member nations to enforce sanctions. What makes you think all these countries that are making money off of North Korea will comply with the new sanctions?”

Secretary of State Scott Adler fielded this. “We come out very strongly and say any nation who knowingly circumvents the sanctions will meet with unilateral sanctions from the U.S. Commerce Department. We make a big noise about getting our European and Asian partners on board with this. Once we have the UN stamp on this action, we can add our own measures to make it more effective.”

There was a half-hour of back and forth after this, discussions of the tenor and the tone of the sanctions. Finally President Ryan was sold on the fact this was a necessary step. He nodded and said, “Okay. You almost never hear me say this, but I agree the United Nations has an important role to play here. The U.S. and Europe already sanction our banks against working with the North Koreans. But the banks we have identified as being involved in this are all in countries not saddled by their own domestic sanctions against North Korea.”

Ambassador Rush said, “We need wording along the lines of a prohibition on commerce and banking… restrictions to third-country persons, banks, and other commercial entities from facilitating trade with North Korea. We’ll have to specify the thirty-eight accounts we’ve identified, all the go-betweens, all the countries involved.”

Ryan agreed. “That’s right. We have to shut down North Korea’s access to hard currency. The best way in the short term to do that is to get a UN resolution sanctioning the banks abroad they are working with now.”

The UN ambassador said, “If we, as a member of the UN Security Council, push for these new sanctions, the first step that will happen will be in the Security Council Sanctions Committee. They will have ten days to hold a rules vote to see if the measures requested meet the requirements of UN economic sanctions. This is a procedural vote, and it shouldn’t be a major problem, but it is a definite hurdle. There is a lot of arcane wording in the charter, and the UN officials in the Sanctions Committee must themselves decide if the request is even valid.”

Ryan said, “We can put pressure on the governments of the delegates.”

Ambassador Rush shook her head. “Won’t work. In the sanctions vote, sure, the ambassadors will vote in the interests of their own nations. But in this rules vote, the voters are employees of the UN. Simple bureaucrats. I’m not saying they are untouchable, but they are international law experts, and they pride themselves on reading the charter and ruling accordingly.”

Ryan nodded. “Okay. Get started on drafting the sanctions immediately. I want something to sign as soon as possible so we can get the ball rolling. Every day North Korea has all this cash in all these bank accounts in all these offshore banks is another day closer to their acquisition of an ICBM.”

“Mr. President,” Adler said. “I want you to be perfectly clear on one thing. When you go forward with this push to get another round of sanctions passed, you will be outnumbered. There are a lot of countries, and a lot of very powerful companies who are aware that North Korea has potential in the rare earth mineral sector. The big technology firms want electromagnets for their computers, for example, and the nations who get tax dollars from these firms — the French and the Germans and the Japanese and the Taiwanese, for example — they will all be under a lot of pressure to kill these sanctions.”

Ryan chuckled. “I’ve been outnumbered before. Hell, I’ve spent the last hour and a half staring back at you guys arguing this over.”

The room broke into laughter.

Adler smiled but stayed on point. “Diplomatically, politically, even ethically, we are going to look pretty awful if word gets out we are trying to inhibit an industry that has nothing to do with either weapons or human rights abuses. We will basically be saying to the world that we want to continue to starve a population of twenty-five million people in order to protect ourselves.”

Ryan said, “You know that’s bullshit. Nobody in North Korea who is starving now is going to get a bucket of Kentucky Fried Chicken when the government mineral mine starts producing.”

Arnie followed Adler’s argument. “But that’s how it will play in the press if we push to cut off their access to manufactured goods from abroad. Politically, Mr. President, this is a dead end.”

Ryan heaved. “I don’t do politics anymore. I won my last election and I can’t run again. You remember that, don’t you?”

Van Damm rolled his eyes at the comment. “I’m not talking about you. Midterms are coming up, you’ve got a tenuous hold on Congress and a contested Senate. If you concentrate on issues that move the needle in our favor, you can write your own ticket for the last two years of your administration.

“The populace focuses on the shiny objects in front of them. The media is talking about domestic issues first, then the Russia — Ukraine problem, and lastly the conflagration in the Middle East. North Korea’s craziness isn’t even a blip on the radar to these people anymore, even with the missile test and the interdiction of the rocket tubes from France. That was barely a one-news-cycle story. The country doesn’t care.”

“It’s not my job to just focus on what’s trending, Arnie. You know that. Just because this problem isn’t as overt as some of the other world flash points, it doesn’t mean I can just ignore it.”

“Fair enough,” Van Damm said. “But be warned. You won’t have a lot of friends on this issue.”