Lash-Up

14 Escalation

Mark Markin stood in front of a large flat-panel display with a digital depiction of the earth and the U.S. GPS satellite constellation; there were now eleven glowing red Xs on the screen. The reporter pointed his finger toward the newest X.

“At eleven forty-five A.M. Eastern Standard Time, the Chinese Dragon Gun claimed yet another victim. A GPS satellite, space vehicle number fifty-five, was destroyed when a Tien Lung projectile detonated near the satellite as it passed over the Pacific basin. This would have been the ninth satellite neutralized by the Chinese supergun, but a source close to the GPS program has told CNN that, in reality, the U.S. has lost eleven satellites. According to our source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the press, the two reserve satellites were probably destroyed early on in China’s space antiaccess campaign.”

The graphic on the display changed behind the reporter, showing the periods during the day when U.S. precision-guided munitions that depended on GPS would be degraded due to a lack of satellites. There were now two four-hour windows over China during which an airborne GPS receiver would lack 3D coverage, resulting in navigation errors that could throw off a weapon’s accuracy by hundreds of meters. One window covered half of the nighttime hours.

“The gap in GPS coverage during the night has had a significant impact on U.S. contingency planning,” continued Markin. “Without their ability to use GPS-directed precision-strike cruise missiles or other weapons from stealth aircraft, the U.S. Air Force and Navy are effectively hamstrung. Even with the formation of the U.S. Air Force’s Aerospace Defense Organization, the U.S. continues to experience a rapid decline in its ability to deter China from invading Vietnam.

“However, last week the appearance of a name — Defender — caused the security dam to burst. We go to our Holly Moore in Washington, D.C., for more on this remarkable revelation. Holly?”

Holly Moore, CNN’s White House correspondent, handled this piece, rather than Markin, since it covered the political implications more than the military ones. She stood on the wind-whipped U.S. Capitol steps. The image lasted only seconds, though, before being replaced by the cover of the Defender document.

“Late last week, CNN obtained a copy of a detailed design for an armed spacecraft reportedly intended to attack targets in space and on the ground. According to the unidentified source who posted it on the Web, it was widely distributed in classified DoD circles.”

“Based on the aborted VentureStar spacecraft, the design is reportedly equipped with advanced radar and laser sensors, guided-ground-attack weapons, and a high-power laser from the air force’s canceled Airborne Laser Program.

“No one in the defense department would comment on the document, and everyone referred us to the new Aerospace Defense Organization. We also tried to contact Mr. Ray McConnell, listed on the cover as the lead designer, but all attempts to locate him have failed. There is another list of names on the inside, all described as contributors to the document. The few CNN has been able to locate have either denied knowledge of Defender or refused to comment.

“Some sources have linked Defender with the mysterious activity at the South Base complex on the gigantic Edwards Air Force Base. Since the initial report broke last week, security at the South Base complex has been described as tightened to extraordinary lengths. Our repeated requests to visit the complex have been denied.

“Opposition to Defender appeared immediately after the report of its existence was aired. Some individuals are opposed to the blatant militarization of space. Others don’t believe the spaceship can be built in time to do any good, and others claim it can’t be completed at all due to insurmountable technological problems. All are asking for an accounting of the undoubtedly high costs. Links to Web sites opposing Defender, as well as the original design document, are available on our Web site.

“Congressman Tom Rutledge, Democratic representative from Nebraska, spoke on the Capitol steps moments ago.”

The image changed to show a tall, photogenic man with a cloud of salt-and-pepper hair fluttering in the fall wind. “As a member of the House Armed Services Committee, I intend to find out why Congress was not consulted on this wasteful and extremely risky project. The investigation will also deal with the administration’s continued inability to cope with this crisis. In a little over a month, our expensive and valuable GPS satellites will be unable to provide our military with the navigation information the ‘American way of war’ demands. That means we either back off — and need I remind everyone we don’t have a formal defense treaty with Vietnam — or we foolishly press on at the expense of many of our young people’s lives.”

Moore’s face reappeared on the screen. “Ominous words, indeed, from Congressman Rutledge. Now back to Mark with a related piece on the congressman’s comments. Mark, over to you.”

Markin came back into view with the famous Dragon Gun animation sequence running in the background. “Thank you, Holly. Not long ago, I interviewed Mr. Michael Baldwin, an acknowledged expert on the NAVSTAR GPS system. I asked him how long the system would be able to function under continued Chinese attacks.”

Baldwin was a slim, long-faced man in his fifties with a short gray haircut and a neatly trimmed beard. He sat against a backdrop of jumbled electronic equipment and computer screens. He spoke with ease, secure in his knowledge. “The constellation’s been severely affected. There are few places on Earth now where the military can’t reliably get the kind of three-dimensional fix it needs for precision-guided munitions or even accurate navigation for any airborne vehicle. For the most part, civilian users are largely unaffected, as they don’t require such accuracy. However, people who travel in mountainous areas and the airline industry have seen significant degradation in the navigation data.

“In the past, this would be more than a mere inconvenience. We’ve come to expect that GPS service will always be there, like the telephone or electricity, but, as with these industries, there is now more than one provider, and the European Galileo system has taken up the slack caused by the loss of GPS satellites.”

“Then why can’t the U.S. military use the European system if it is still healthy?”

Baldwin shook his head. “It doesn’t work that way, Mark. The U.S. weapons don’t have the ability to receive the signals from the Galileo satellites. They could be modified, but that would probably take more time than we have. And besides, the Galileo system is far more prone to jamming than the GPS military channels. So, even if we did modify our weapons, it wouldn’t change the situation.”

“How long before the GPS network ceases to be any use at all?”

“If the Chinese continue shooting down satellites at the rate of one a week, by early to mid-December, the U.S. military will not have any 3D coverage during the nighttime hours, and for a significant portion of the daytime as well. This would all but cripple our precision-engagement capability.”

Markin’s face became stern; his next question was a loaded one. “Some pundits are saying that if we can’t destroy the gun with Tomahawk missiles or air strikes, we should use nuclear weapons. What do you think of that?”

Baldwin seemed surprised by the question but answered it quickly. “No U.S. citizen has been harmed, and the degradation in the GPS system hasn’t really impacted our economy. It’s only affected our military’s ability to fight. In my opinion, it’s almost impossible to justify the use of nuclear weapons in this situation. Unfortunately, the Dragon Gun is too deep inside Chinese territory for anything but a ballistic missile or a stealth bomber to reach, and without accurate navigation data, it would be extremely difficult to get a hit. I’m personally against the use of nuclear weapons. I don’t know anyone who is even seriously suggesting it.” He grinned. “But, in the final analysis, we have precious few options other than walking away from this crisis. I’m hoping this Defender is for real.”

Markin asked, “Can we do anything to reconstitute the constellation?”

“Not until they can protect the satellites somehow,” Baldwin replied firmly.

“So we shouldn’t launch any replacement satellites right now?”

The expert shook his head vehemently. “Adding more sitting ducks to the barrel won’t solve anything. It would be lunacy to even consider the idea.”

“I’m glad you’re such a cautious, anal-retentive individual, Ray.” The security director’s face was grim, but his tone was light and triumphant. “What you meant as a configuration-control mechanism has enabled us to track this document as it wormed its way through the SIPRNET.”

He stood before McConnell’s wall display, which held a diagram. It repeated the same symbol, an icon-sized image of the Defender document file. Starting at the left, it was labeled MCCONNELL. Line segments connected it to other nodes, each labeled with a name and sometimes a date.

“CNN either took off the version number, trying to hide the source, or it was removed before it was posted. But the design-data tables are so full of numbers, the poster missed the version number embedded in said tables. We were able to determine which version had been compromised and its creation date in half a day. Checking your SIPRNET e-mail records, we were able to find out who initially received this version of the design and when they received it. We know when it was posted on the Space News blog, and we started running down the e-mail trail with the help of NSA. We got a lot of cooperation from some of the addresses, and not much from others, which in itself helped us focus our search.”

Ray had listened to the presentation with both anger and fear. CNN’s scoop had devastated morale. Secrecy had been part of their strength. It allowed them to move quickly, unhindered. Now friend and enemy alike could interfere with a timetable that had no room for delay.

He knew Defender was a long shot. The Chinese now knew where they were. Could they take some sort of counteraction? Even well-meaning friends now could derail the project.

The army colonel handed Ray his tablet PC. “Here’s the report. I’ve found two individuals, one at SPAWAR and the other at NASA. Both received copies of this version, third- or fourth-hand, and according to the investigators I sent out, both have openly criticized Defender. One, at NASA, was quoted saying, ‘Defender had to be stopped. It could cripple NASA’s plans for developing spacecraft technology and would lead to the militarization of space.’”

Ray nodded, acknowledging the information but not responding immediately. The colonel respected his silence, but obviously waited for a reply. Ray knew who leaked the design document; it didn’t take Sherlock Holmes to solve this case. He wanted to strike out at the individual, but there was little he could do.

Ray stated flatly, “I think you’ll find that Matheson, the NASA director, is the one who compromised our little project. He was more than angry about the demands we put on NASA. My understanding is that he was absolutely livid when the president told him to sit down, shut up, and play ball. Since the original Defender document was never classified, it’s not a crime to release it.”

“Dr. Harold Matheson is one of the two people I referred to. But anyone who slipped the document to the press certainly isn’t our friend,” countered Evans. “By exposing us, they’ve hurt our chances of stopping the Chinese. I’d say that’s acting against the best interests of national security.”

“By the time we indicted him, it would be moot. Our best revenge will be to succeed.” Part of Ray didn’t agree with what he was saying, but he was trying to think with his head, not his emotions.

“I could leak his identity to the press. It wouldn’t be hard to cast Dr. Matheson as a disgruntled federal employee who disobeyed a direct order from the president and took matters into his own hands. Fight one leak with another,” suggested the colonel.

Ray shook his head slowly. “Tempting, but that would open the door to more accusations and counteraccusations — in other words, more attention. I need you for other things now. All our energy has to be devoted to getting Defender in space. We need to let this incident die down and buy us a few weeks, if we can. In the meantime, we mustn’t provide anything that corroborates this story. No sense pushing the cover story anymore; it’s been totally discredited. Complete silence is probably our best defense.”

Evans wasn’t convinced. “That may work on the home front. But we have to assume the Chinese now know of Defender’s existence and where she’s parked. They may try to sabotage or even attack us at this location.”

“Then we increase our defenses accordingly,” Ray declared. “If we need to bring in a Patriot battery or a division of Marines, then that’s what we’ll do.”

Evans nodded. “I’ll increase our patrols immediately. I’d appreciate it if you’d have Admiral Schultz request additional support form General Norman. I’ll do the same up the army side.”

“Thanks, Jack. I’ll pass on the request when I report to the admiral.” Ray was certain Schultz wouldn’t be thrilled with his decision, but he knew it was the best they could do given the circumstances.

As the colonel left, Ray started to get up; he had to report the unpleasant results of their investigation to his boss. But Schultz would want to know what they were going to do about the exposure, and Ray knew that merely increasing their security wasn’t the full answer.

Opposition to Defender was forming incredibly fast — anti-Defender Web pages already? Ray had implicitly assumed that there wouldn’t be a lot of resistance, but that view was based on his perception of the power of a presidential order and secrecy. With the project now fully out in the open, all bets were off. The president could only do so much, particularly if Congress got directly involved. A congressmen or senator could demand the program be stopped or delayed for review. Or, worse, if both houses were sufficiently angry enough, they could withdraw funding.

Only then did he recall Schultz’s cynical warning during their flight out to Edwards. Ray had been so focused on standing up the U.S. Space Force and getting Defender ready that he hadn’t thought about the implications of a leak objectively. Ray’s single-mindedness to get his dream into space had given him a bad case of tunnel vision; nothing else mattered but the technical challenge. Now the entire command had to hustle to play catch up due to his lack of foresight.

The war in space against a hostile nation had morphed into an information war at home. Anyone who’d seen the news knew the media would pick up and report anything that was fed to them. They were like sharks in a feeding frenzy. Well, it was time for him to do some feeding of his own. Ray remained convinced that people formally associated with the project had to lay low and stay quiet, but that didn’t preclude him from using proxies, sympathetic to their cause, from speaking up for them. It wasn’t his preferred method of debate, but the lack of any other option left him with few choices.

He opened the e-mail address book on his unclassified computer. Ray had contacts all over the defense, space, and computer communities. They’d helped him get Defender started. Now he needed their assistance to fend off the detractors. Defender needed some defending.

Pulling up a new e-mail, he started typing in the subject box. “Defender needs your help…”

Shen had insisted on having the Central Military Commission meeting here, in the shadow of the mountain. Ignoring the recall order to Beijing had seemed suicidal to his staff, but the general knew that, once away from the mountain, any flaw or error here could be blamed on his neglect. So far, the Lung Mu had worked flawlessly, but that had just made him a more important target to his adversaries within the party.

Friends in Beijing had kept him informed. There were those who resented his success, even if it helped China against the United States. There were those who wanted to discredit him, weaken him, and then take over the gun for their own political agendas. Some party members simply thought he had too much power. Others complained the president was just echoing Shen’s words. Most thought he had undue influence on China’s direction during the current crisis.

He’d been able to fabricate a reasonable excuse for remaining on the mountain, and to his relief Dong Zhi had backed him up. Shen had expected his chief scientist to do so, but the first rule of Chinese politics was that trust was like smoke. When it was there, it blocked your vision. And it would disappear with the first puff of wind.

Instead, Dr. Dong and the rest of the CMC members now sat in the main observation gallery, while an intelligence officer briefed them on the new American spacecraft.

The army colonel had passed out edited copies of the original design document, annotated in Chinese with an engineering analysis attached. He’d reviewed the systems — the laser, the projectiles, and the advanced sensors. Shen, Dong, and the other technical people present were fascinated by the vehicle’s complexity, as well as the Americans’ audacity. It was a potentially dangerous craft. Shen noticed that the politicians spent more time gazing out the window than watching the presentation. Had they already heard it? Or were the exact details too mundane, unimportant?

The colonel finished his briefing, but the CMC members wanted definite answers. Was the design real, or fiction? Was it merely an attempt at disinformation to buy time? When would it be ready? Would it interfere with the overall Vietnam campaign? How could it be countered?

The colonel declined to make any definite conclusions. “I apologize that I can’t be more specific at this time. We’re still analyzing the information we’ve collected. As you can see, it is a very complex topic, and we’ve only had a week to review the leaked document.”

“It looks like pure fantasy to me,” blurted General Jing, Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. “It would have taken years of effort to get to a point where a launch would be possible in only a couple of months. We’ve heard nothing about this vehicle until recently.” The tone of the general’s voice highlighted his irritation.

“That’s not entirely true, General,” countered General Zheng, Director of the Armaments Department. “The General Staff’s intelligence arm has kept an eye on the VentureStar, and everything indicates it was laid up in storage.” Turning back to the briefer, Zheng asked, “Colonel, how confident are you that this vehicle is actively being worked on?”

“Comrade General, four days before this document appeared on the Internet, the Ministry of State Security’s Second Bureau received an intelligence report from one of our deep operatives in the American Lockheed Martin Corporation. This operative recently took a new position in a top-secret contract that, fortuitously, turned out to be the reanimated VentureStar program.”

Shen’s ears perked up. He knew exactly whom the colonel was referring to, a capable young man of Chinese heritage who had provided a large quantity of information on the U.S. GPS satellites. The revelation annoyed Shen, since he was completely unaware of this latest report, or that the source had even changed jobs. He listened carefully as the intelligence officer continued.

“The operative reported that the United States has formed a new branch of their military, the U.S. Space Force, which was created secretly less than a month ago. This new military arm is being rapidly stood up and its headquarters is located on the South Base complex at Edwards Air Force Base.

“Our source hasn’t had much of an opportunity to collect any detailed data since the headquarters building is being reconstructed. However, he has confirmed that the VentureStar has been moved to the large hangar in Building 151 and that the technical director is the same Ray McConnell identified as the lead designer on the leaked document. Based on records from the personnel office, hundreds of engineers and technicians are being brought in to work on this vehicle. The large cadre of specialists associated with the canceled Airborne Laser Program supports the conclusion that the VentureStar, or this Defender, will be an armed military spacecraft.”

Zheng nodded. “Much of what you are telling us, Colonel, is consistent with the American press reports of mysterious activity on the Edwards base. Given the presence of this McConnell individual and what appears to be some internal friction between the U.S. space agencies, I believe you have sufficient grounds for your conclusions.”

Jing remained unimpressed. “I agree with you, Comrade General, but I still haven’t heard how the Americans can possibly get this vehicle into space within a month. And even if they can, what is the risk to our campaign in Vietnam?”

Shen finally spoke up; there was no risk in stating the obvious. “If the American design works as described, it will have the capability to interfere with our antisatellite attacks.”

“And the chance of that happening?” Pan demanded abruptly. As the president of China, and first secretary of the Chinese communist party, Pan Yunfeng also held the position as chairman of the CMC and led all the meetings of this important conclave.

“Impossible to say, Comrade President. However, this is not something they can build in just a few months. While the VentureStar space vehicle is largely complete, it had not been fully certified for service and has been in storage for almost a decade. It will have to be adapted to this new role, and a number of the systems discussed in the document have yet to be fielded.”

“Is it possible that this is a disinformation campaign?” a skeptical Pan asked the briefer.

The colonel shook his head vehemently. “Very unlikely, sir. The American administration is suffering intense criticism because of this now-exposed ‘secret project.’ The fact that the leak appears to have come from another entity of the American government has only compounded their embarrassment. They’ve gained nothing from the revelation. Combining this with the report from our operative convinces us that this Defender program is real. Whether or not the Americans will be able to field it when they say they will is a matter of conjecture.”

“Then what do they hope to gain by doing this?” demanded a frustrated Pan.

Shen replied, his tone light, almost casual. “Oh, they’re building this Defender, all right, but there will be very little to defend once it is operational, perhaps within a year. By that time, the new Tien Lung II projectile will also be ready. It has stealth features, a more energetic warhead, armor, and it’s semiautonomous.” Shen smiled. “We’ll use the Dragon’s Mother to keep them on the ground. We can destroy anything they launch.”

“General Shen!” shouted Pan angrily. “I don’t think I need to remind everyone here that the Americans have an annoying habit of doing what people say is impossible!”

Shen was taken aback by the president’s sharp remark. He had badly misjudged the president’s tolerance for risk; someone had gotten to him and fueled his doubts.

“Comrade Generals, I keep hearing why you believe the Americans can’t do this. What I’m not hearing is what could happen to our plans if they surprise us and do the impossible.”

There was an awkward silence as a number of the senior officers looked down at the table; Shen struggled to find a response.

“Comrade President, if I may?” spoke up General Li, the Chief of the General Staff and Commander of the People’s Liberation Army.

“Yes, General Li.”

“Sir, I agree with General Shen’s overall technical assessment. If the Americans successfully build and launch the Defender vehicle, it will interfere with our attacks on their GPS satellites and they will be able to repair their constellation. Perhaps not to full capability, but enough to cause us considerable hardship with their stealth aircraft and precision-guided weapons.”

Shen stared intently at the chief of staff. Where was the man going with this?

“More importantly, if they can reduce the effectiveness of our antisatellite campaign, it will be a huge psychological boost to the Americans’ psyche; they will dig in their heels and fight. The impact on the Vietnam campaign would not be in our favor.”

Shen saw the president, vice president, and minister of defense all nodding. A number of his senior officer colleagues also seemed to be weighing Li’s words carefully.

“And your recommendation, General?” inquired Pan.

“We give the Americans another shock, before they are even ready to attempt to counter General Shen’s excellent efforts. By striking them before they can react to our last move, we deal another blow to their psyche. At the very least, it will plunge them into confusion and doubt; at best, it may even break them.”

“And how do you propose we deal this shocking blow, General?” Zheng asked.

“By moving up our invasion of Vietnam.”

The meeting broke into a chaotic rumble as the CMC members rapidly debated the idea with their neighbors. Pan had to shout to be heard above the noise.

“Comrades! Silence, please!” Once the din had subsided, he looked toward General Li. “I appreciate the boldness of your suggestion, General, but are we ready to do that?”

Li shrugged slightly. “There is some risk, of course, Comrade President, but I believe it is minimal. Four out of the five group armies are fully deployed and in position. The South Sea Fleet has the equipment for its marine division already loaded on their amphibious assault ships, and the air force and Second Artillery have the vast majority of their forces in place. The rest can be moved up in a matter of days, perhaps a week at most. We could launch the initial strikes as early as tomorrow.”

“No!” shouted Shen, jumping to his feet. “The Americans still have nearly half the day with adequate 3D coverage. By attacking now, our losses will be increased! Everything is going according to plan. This response by the Americans isn’t sufficient justification to abandon it!”

There were shocked expressions on many of the generals’ faces. Pan scowled with anger at Shen’s outburst. But it was the deadpanned Li who delivered the decisive blow. “I do not recall General Shen being a member of this commission.”

Immediately, Shen knew he had been outmaneuvered by the army commander, the most powerful military member on the CMC. Quietly, Shen sat back down. Nothing he could say would make the situation any better.

“Does any member have additional comments or questions?” asked Pan. No one spoke. Even the hesitant Jing remained silent. The die had been cast.

“Very well. Generals, have your staffs issue the orders to begin the invasion of Vietnam at the earliest possible time. We need to move quickly if we are to succeed.”