Marine One

10

MIKE," TRACY, MY secretary, said from outside my door as I hung up the phone.

"Yeah."

"Rachel just called. The NTSB is going to have a press conference in a few minutes."

"Get her in here," I said as I turned to my computer and went to MSNBC.com. They were carrying the press conference live. Rachel ran in as I clicked on the video feed and the picture opened in a small window on my computer screen.

"Anyone speculating on what this is about?"

"Nothing. No one was expecting it this quickly."

I expanded the video panel on my computer screen. I recognized the lobby of the NTSB building. The NTSB logo was right behind Rose, who was standing in front of a lectern with a bank of microphones. Rachel came around to my side of the desk and leaned against it next to me.

Rose looked up at all the cameras and the faces of all the reporters. She began reading a prepared statement. She told them she would take no questions, this was a preliminary finding, how tirelessly all the professionals who were a part of the investigation had worked, blah, blah, blah. Everybody in the country wanted her to get to the point. Finally she did. She looked up and her eyes narrowed. I wondered if she had written that gesture into her statement. "First of all, let me say that our findings, again, are preliminary, and this is particularly true as to the cause of this accident. I want to state clearly what we believe did not cause this accident. We have found no evidence of any explosives, projectiles, or other means of bringing this helicopter down by outside forces. This helicopter was not shot down. Second, we, with the FBI and other investigators, have found no evidence of foul play. The president was not assassinated. Third, it is our preliminary belief that the cause of this accident was due to the helicopter losing one of its main rotor blades in the storm." You could hear cameras clicking in the background. "We are not positive about the cause of that rotor blade leaving the main rotor hub. But we know it was put on the helicopter two weeks ago. This was a replacement blade. Our current focus is on the missing tip weights which could have caused blade separation. That is all I have."

She closed her notebook and walked away from the lectern without answering any of the questions being screamed at her by the journalists: So, it was WorldCopter's fault? Was it sabotage? How long before your investigation is final? Have you met with WorldCopter? What did they say?

She was true to her word and took no questions. When the door closed behind her, the reporters quieted down. I muted the sound on my computer and looked up at Rachel, who was looking down at me. She folded her arms and stared at the screen. "How could they know that?"

"I don't know, maybe they've got some good metallurgy we haven't seen. I'll ask Marcel. They're clearly not telling us everything. They can wait until the final report is issued to really lay it out. That could be another year or two."

"Marcel would have already told us if they'd found something." Rachel stood there, not moving. She looked down at me again. "You buying it?"

"We've always known that blade was a problem. But do I think that caused the accident? No."

"Then why would they say it did?"

"Because they believe it. You ever heard of Occam's razor?"

"No."

"It's named after some philosopher. His idea, the 'razor,' was that the correct answer to a complex problem is usually found in the simplest solution. The more you construct or assume, the more steps or requirements there are to explain it, the less likely it is to be right. All things being equal, the explanation that calls for the fewest assumptions is likely the correct one. Basically, the simplest answer wins."

"Makes sense."

"I don't think it does, but my point is, that's the way the NTSB thinks. If they can come up with a single screw that explains an entire accident, they'll grab on to that theory and hold it forever. You can tell them whatever you want, you can question all their evidence, it won't matter. You won't push them off of that conclusion. And as you know, the government is never wrong."

"That's certainly been my experience."

She stood up and walked toward the door. "Once you start thinking about this accident, you can't stop. I can see why people obsess about the Kennedy assassination."

"Once your brain locks onto the facts, you can't rest until all the pieces fit into a picture. Here's the NTSB giving us their theory, and nobody even knows who the president was going to meet."

Rachel walked out and said on her way, "We going to be able to find answers?"

"I'm sure as hell going to try."