My former professor looks at me as if we have reverted to old roles, like I’m back in undergrad and he’s giving me a lesson.
“I have no idea whether the Russians are blackmailing our president, or even attempting to do so,” says Andrei. “But I do believe I have a good assessment of Russian leadership these days. So let us assume that there is blackmail taking place.” He opens his hands. “What is the one thing Russia wants?”
I shrug my shoulders. “Oil? Power?”
Andrei stares at me, blank-faced. I feel like I’m in an episode of that old Kung Fu show, where Andrei is blind Master Po and I’m David Carradine. You disappoint me, Grasshopper. Yet it is not I whom you have failed. It is you. Look within, Grasshopper.
“Land,” I say.
“Land,” he says in agreement.
You have done well, Grasshopper.
“And if the Russians wanted land, Benjamin, where would they go?” Andrei wags his finger at me. “History, Benjamin, is the best teacher.”
“Afghanistan,” I say, but immediately I know I’m wrong. What was true in the 1970s and ’80s is no longer true today. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a number of independent countries now stand between Russia and Afghanistan-Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, I think, and probably some other hard-to-pronounce names.
“More recent history, Benjamin.”
Oh, right. Of course. “Georgia,” I say. For years, Russia has been backing independence movements in various republics in Georgia. In 2008, there was an armed conflict between Georgia and two of its would-be breakaway republics in South Ossetia, which most observers saw in reality as a war between Georgia and Russia.
And how quickly I forget what I saw just last night on CNN, before I went over to Anne’s place and had mind-altering sex. “The Russians just arrested a Georgian spy in Moscow.”
Andrei nods his head. “Supposedly,” he says. “Conveniently. Next, expect a terrorist act in a major Russian city that is blamed on the Georgians.”
Ah. So the Russians are setting the table for a war with Georgia.
“If Russia really wanted to take Georgia, Benjamin, would it be hard?”
“Militarily? No.”
“But diplomatically, Benjamin.”
“Diplomatically, yes. Georgia has a relationship with NATO now.”
“A problem,” he acknowledges. “Tell me this, Benjamin. How much would the American public care if Russia invaded Georgia and overtook it?”
I let out a sigh. “I mean, for some of us who’ve been around awhile, it would conjure up images of the old Soviet Union. But these days, our military is stretched thin-”
“Just so.”
“-and we probably have bigger things to worry about.”
“Probably.” Andrei nods slowly. “But certainly? Could the Russians be certain how we would respond? Remember, Benjamin, NATO is a presence in this conversation. There could be pressure on an American president to resist this aggression. If not by force, then by sanctions, at a minimum.”
“So the Russians would want some tools of persuasion at their disposal.”
“Just so,” says Andrei. “If the United States acquiesces to this aggression, who will challenge Russia?”
“Nobody,” I say.
“Certainly nobody of importance,” he says. “If the Russians can compromise the president of the United States, they could succeed in their plan.”
So the Russians discover that President Francis is having an extramarital affair. They somehow document this. And they have a private chat with the president. They make him a deal. Keep quiet while we invade Georgia, and we keep quiet about these photographs. Or resist us, and you’ll be embroiled in a scandal that could cost you a second term in office.
Wow. It’s audacious. But so are the Russians.
I take a moment with this. “You think Russia would do all this just so they could take over a tiny neighbor?”
Andrei stares at me, again with a blank face, before a chuckle bursts from his mouth. “Certainly not,” he says. “History, Benjamin, history.”
I throw up my hands. “Help me out here, Andrei. It’s been a long week.”
“You are excused, my friend.” Andrei pats my knee. “Certainly Georgia would simply be a testing ground for the world’s reaction. And a precedent-setting reaction by the United States. This would almost certainly be the beginning, not the end.”
My head falls back on my shoulders. The sky is darkening, promising rain. “Tell me you aren’t saying what I think you’re saying, Andrei.”
“Most regrettably, I am,” he says. “Oh, Benjamin, I have little doubt that the Russians plan to rebuild the old Soviet bloc, country by country.”