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764 McRae H. The World in 2020. Power, Culture and Prosperity. 1994, p. 253.
765 Pfaff W. The Coming Clash of Europe with America («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/99, p. 1).
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769 McRae H. The World in 2020. Power, Culture and Prosperity. 1994, p. 226.
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774 «The National Interest», Spring 1999, p. 21.
775 Deutch J., Kanter A., Scowcroft B. Saving NATO's Foundation («Foreign Affairs», November/ December 1999, p. 59).
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780 Pfaff W. The Coming Clash of Europe with America («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/99, p. 1).
781 Cuthbertson I. Chasing the Chimera. Securing the Peace («World Policy Journal», Summer 1999, p. 93).
782 Pfaff W. The Coming Clash of Europe with America («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/1999, p.8).
783 «Foreign Policy», Spring 1999, p. 107.
784 «The New York Times Review of Books», Nov. 18, 1993, p. 3.
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804 Brzezinski Zb. Living With a New Europe («The National Interest»,Summer 2000, p. 18, 20–21).
805 там же, p. 17.
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828 Typоy Л. Будущее капитализма. Новосибирск, 1999, с. 152.
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830 Bracken P. The Second Industrial Age («Foreign Affairs», Jan/Feb. 2000, p. 149).
831 Shen Zhongchang et al., 21st Century Naval Warfare (In: Pillsbury M. -ed. Chinese Views of Future Warfare. Washington: National Defense University Press, 1998, p. 261–274).
832 Bracken P. Fire in the East. New York: Harper Collins, 1999, p. 48.
833 Гао Шуцинь. Российско-китайские отношения в условиях глобализации. Москва, 2005, с. 131.
834 Болятко А.В. Угрозы и вызовы России в азиатско-тихоокеанском регионе (Китай в XXI веке: шансы, вызов и перспективы. Москва, 2000, с.34.
835 «New York Times», April 21,1992,p.A10; «New York Times», August 1, 1995, p. A2.
836 Bernstein R.,Munro R. The Coming Conflict with China. N. Y.,1997,p.23-24
837 Zi Zhongyun. U.S. — China Relations. Breaking a Vicious Circle («World Policy Journal», Fall, 1999, p. 119).
838 Zi Zhongyun. U.S. — China Relations. Breaking a Vicious Circle («World Policy Journal», Fall, 1999, p. 120).
839 Roberts В., Manning R., Montaperto R. China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power («Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 59).
840 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 79).
841 Kynge J., Fidler S. China's Submarine-Launched Missile To Be Tested («Financial Times», June 3, 1999).
842 «Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 57.
843 Bell С American Ascendancy. And the Pretense of Concert («The National Interest», Fall 1999, p. 57).
844 «The National Interest», Fall 1999, p. 73.
845 IISS, The Military Balance 1998-99. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998, p. 165–169.
846 «Economist», July 31, 1999 (The Road to 2050).
847 Mann J. How the CIA Tried, and Failed, to Protect Tibetans' Right («International Herald Tribune», July 7, 1999).
848 «New York Times», July 10, 1994, p.20.
849 Eikenberry K. Explaining and Influencing Chinese Arms Transfers (McNair Papers, N36, February 1995, Washington, National Defense University, Institute for National Strategic Studies) p. 12.
850 «National Interest», Fall 1994, p. 95.
851 McRae H. The World in 2020. Power, Culture and Prosperity. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1994, p. 253.
852 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 84).
853 Aldred K. and Smith M. Superpowers in the Post-Cold War Era. London: Macmillan Press, 1999, p. 91–92).
854 Pillsbury M. (ed). Chinese View of Future Warfare. Washington: National Defense University Press, 1997.
855 Bernstein R.,Munro R.The Coming Conflict with China. N. Y.,1997,p.l9.
856 Roberts В., Manning R., Montaperto R. China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power («Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 53–54).
857 Calleo D. The United States and the Great Powers («World Policy Journal», Fall 1999, p. 11).
858 Bernstein R.,Munro R.The Coming Conflict with China. N. Y.,1997,p.l9.
859 Carpenter T. and Dorn J. (eds). China's Future. Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? Cato Institute, 2000.
860 Lanxin Xiang. The Chinese Military: Problems of Modernization. PSIS Ocasional Papers, N 3, Geneva, 1999.
861 Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking ofWorld Order. N.Y.,1996,p.l83.
862 Modelski G., Tompson W. The Long and Short of Global Politics in the Twenty-first Century: An Evolutionary Approach («International Studies Review». Summer 1999, p.133).
863 там же.
864 McRae H. The World in 2020. Power, Culture and Prosperity. 1994, p. 276.
865 Rice С Promoting the National Interest («Foreign Affairs», Jan/Feb. 2000, p. 56).
866 Schweninger S. American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War World («World Policy Journal», Summer 1999, p. 60).
867 Lieberthal K. A New China Strategy («Foreign Affairs», Nov.-Dec.l995,p.36.
868 Bernstein R., Munro R. The Coming Conflict with China. N.Y., 1997, p.12.
869 Colin S.Grey. How Geography Still Shapes Security («Orbis», Spring 1996, p. 26).
870 «The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists», Jan.-Feb.1997, p. 18–19.
871 Nye J. The Case for Deep Engagement («Foreign Affairs», July-August 1995, p. 102.
872 Johnson Ch. The Chinese Way («The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January — February 1997, p. 22).
873 там же, p. 23.
874 Lilly J., Ford С China's Military: A Second Opinion («The National Interest», Fall 1999, p. 71).
875 Lilly J., Ford C. China's Military: A Second Opinion («The National Interest», Fall 1999, p. 72).
876 Seib G. Another Threat Looms: China As New Demon («Wall Street Journal», May 26, 1999.
877 там же, p. 57.
878 Tucker N. China and America: 1941–1991 («Foreign Affairs»,Wmter 1991-92, p. 92.
879 Meisner M. The Deng Xiaoping Era. An Inquiry into the fate of Chinese Socialism, 1978–1994. N.Y., 1996.
88 °Carlisle Ch. Is the World Ready for Free Trade? («Foreign Affairs», Nov.-Dec.1996. p. 121.
881 «The Economist», June 27, 1998, p. 25.
882 Rose G. Present Laughter or Utopian Bliss? («The National Interest», Winter 1999/2000, p. 45).
883 Yasheng Huang. Why China Will Not Collapse («Foreign Policy», Summer 1995, p. 50).
884 Lieberthal K. A New China Strategy, p.36.
885 Brzezinski Zb. A Geostrategy for Eurasia («Foreign Affairs», September/October 1999, p. 58–59).
886 Goldstone J. The Coming Chinese Collapse («Foreign Affairs», Summer 1995, p.36).
887 Ross R. Beijing as a Conservative Power.(«Foreign Affairs»,March-Aprill997,p. 34.
888 Pfaff W. The Coming Clash of Europe with America («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/99, p. 1).
889 Gill В., O'Hanlon. China's Hollow Military («The National Interest», Summer 1999).
890 Gill В., O'Hanlon. China's Hollow Military («The National Interest», Summer 1999).
891 Schwenninger S. American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War World («World Policy Journal», Summer 1999, p. 63).
892 Aldred K. and Smith M. Superpowers in the Post-Cold War Era. London: Macmillan Press, 1999, p. 94).
893 «Foreign Affairs», July-August 1995, p. 112.
894 Rice С Promoting the National Interest («Foreign Affairs», Jan/Feb. 2000, p. 55).
895 Binnendijk H. Back to Bipolarity? («The Washington Quarterly», Autumn 1999, p. 13).
896 там же.
897 Halloran R. The Rising East («Foreign Policy», Spring 1996, p.3).
898 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 85).
899 Aldred K. and Smith M. Superpowers in the Post-Cold War Era. London: Macmillan Press, 1999, p. 94–95.
900 Schwenninger S. American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War World («World Policy Journal», Summer 1999, p. 63).
901 OECD Economic Outlook, June 1999, p. 41.
902 Rosefielde S. Russia in the 21s' Century. The Prodigal Superpower. Cambridge University Press, 2005, p. 2.
903 Fukuyama F. The End of History and the Last Man. New York: The Free Press, 1992.
904 Фукуяма скромно приписывает этот тезис бежавшему из сталинской России Сергею Кожеву (Кожевникову), преподававшему в Сорбонне в 1960-е годы и утверждавшему, что либеральная демократия не может быть замещена авторитаризмом.
905 там же
906 Контуры мирового будущего. Мир 2020 года // Сообщение. 2005. № 6–7 (64). С. 26.
907 Там же. С. 91.
908 Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York, 1996. P. 127.
909 Pipes R. Property and Freedom. New York, 1999; Hedlund S. Can They Go Back and Fix It? Reflections on Some Historical Roots of Russia's Economic Troubles // Acta Slavica Iaponica. 2003. № 20. P. 50–84.
910 Rosefielde S. Russia in the 21SI Century. The Prodigal Superpower. Cambridge University Press, 2005. P. 68.
911 Bedkhen A. Kremlin Can't Control Secretive Nuke Agency // San-Francisco Chronicle. September 1, 2002.
912 Seghers К (ed.). Explaining Post-Soviet Patchworks: Pathaway from the Past to the Global. Vol. 2. Aldershot, 2001. P. 78–103.
913 Rosefielde S. Russia in the 21s1 Century… P. 9.
914 Lurie O. The IMF Loan That Vanished Has Been Found in Abramovich's Swiss Company // Johnson's Russian List. № 7096. Art. 11. March 10, 2003.
915 Сафронов А.П. Авторитарное общество как объект структурной реформы (Социально-философский аспект). Автореферат диссертации на соискание ученой степени кандидата философских наук. М.: ИФ РАН, 2005.
916 Rosefielde S. Russia in the 21s1 Century… P. 19.
917 Johnson's Russian List. № 7257. July 20, 2003.
918 Webster P. Suicide Rates in Russia on the Increase // The Lancet. № 9379 (Johnson's Russian List. № 7257. July 20, 2003).
919 Rosefielde S. Russia in the 21" Century… P. 94, 10.
920 Noren J. and Kurtzig L. The Soviet Union Unravels: 1985–1991 // The Former Soviet Union in Transition. Washington, Joint Economic Committee of Congress, February 1993. P. 12.
921 Gaddy С The Price of the Past: Russia's Struggle with the Legacy of a Militarized Economy. Washington, D.C., 1996.
922 Seabright P. (ed.). The Vanishing Rouble: Barter Networks and NonMilitary Transactions in Post-Soviet Societies. Cambridge University Press, 1998.
923 Johnson's Russian List. March 19, 2003.
924 Johnson's Russian List. January 27, 2004.
925 http:/www. cnews.ru/news/ top/index.shtml?/2005/12/05/192731
926 http:/www. cnews.ru/news/ top/index.shtml?/2005/12/05/192731
927 Blank S. The Material Technical Foundations of Russian Military Power (Draft). August 2002; Blank S. The 18,h Brumaire ofVladimir Putin // Paper Conference on Succession Crisis in Russia. Boston, April 20, 2004.
928 Russia Possesses Secret Weapon// Jonson's Russia List. № 8140, art. 4. March 28, 2004. P. 34.
929 Blank S. Material Technical Foundations of Russian Military Power… P. 34–35.
930 «International Studies Review», Summer 1999, p. 91.
931 там же, p. 95.
932 The World in 2006. London: Economist, 2005, p, 86.
933 Binnendijk H. Back to Bipolarity? («The Washington Quarterly», Autumn 1999, p. 12).
934 Santis De H. Mutualism. An American Strategy for the Next Century («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/99, p. 49).
935 Taylor P. Embedded Statism and the Social Sciences: Opening Up to New Spaces («Environment and Planning», 1996, N 28, p. 1925).
936 Waltz K. Evaluating Theories («American Political Science Review», December 1997, p. 915–916).
937 Modelski G., Tompson W. The Long and Short of Global Politics in the Twenty-first Century: An Evolutionary Approach («International Studies Review». Summer 1999, p. 138).
938 Thurow L. Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and America. N.Y., 1992.
939 Modelski G., Tompson W. The Long and Short of Global Politics in the Twenty-first Century: An Evolutionary Approach («International Studies Review». Summer 1999, p. 111).
940 «The National Interest», Spring 1999, p. 22.
941 Zakaria Fareed. The Challenges of American Hegemony («International Journal», Winter 1998-9, p. 15).
942 «Economist», July 31, 1999 (Road to 2050).
943 Waltz K. The Emerging Structure of International Politics («International Security», 1993, N18,p.50)
944 Huntington S. The Lonely Superpower («Foreign Affairs», March-April 1999.
945 Zoellik R. A Republican Foreign Policy («Foreign Affairs», Jan/Feb. 2000, p. 66).
946 Benamou G.-M. Le Dernier Mitterand. Paris, 1998, p. 314.
947 «The National Interest», Summer 2000, p. 36.
948 «Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 107.
949 Meunier S. The French Exception («Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 106).
950 House оf Commons. Session 1998-99. Report: The Future of NATO: The Washington Summit. London, 1999, p.XXXI.
951 Heisbourg F. Europe's Strategic Ambitions: The Limits of Ambiguity («Survival», Summer 2000, p. 11–12).
952 «London Review of Books», December 10, 1998.
953 Trevor-Roper H. Prime Minister Without a Past («The Spectator», December 19/26 1998).
954 «Survival», Summer 2000, p. 13.
955 («World Policy Journal», Winter 1998/99, p. 2).
956 Newhouse J. Op.cit., p. 9.
957 там же, p. 4.
958 Newhouse J. Europe Adrift. N.Y., 1997, p. 8.
959 Newhouse J. Europe Adrift. N.Y., 1997, p. 19.
960 «The National Interest», Summer 2000, p. 36.
961 «New York Times», February 15, 1999.
962 Newhouse J. Op.cit, p. 156.
963 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 78).
964 «Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 52.
965 «Foreign Policy», Spring 1999, p. 108.
966 Helweg D. Japan: A Rising Sun? («Foreign Affairs», July/August 2000, p. 38–39).
967 McRae H. Op. cit., p. 75.
968 «The Economist», January 1997, p. 67.
969 «The National Interest», Summer 2000, p. 38.
970 Rapkin D. Japan and World Leadership (In: Rapkin D. -ed. World Leadership and Hegemony. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1990, p. 199).
971 Bell C. American Ascendancy. And the Pretense of Concert («The National Interest», Fall 1999, p. 58.
972 Mochizuki M. and O'Hanlon M. A Liberal Vision for the US-Japanese Alliance («Survival», 1998, N 2, p. 129–130).
973 Cuthbertson I. Chasing the Chimera. Securing the Peace («World Policy Journal», Summer 1999, p. 79).
974 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21s' Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 80).
975 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 80).
976 Typoy Л. Будущее капитализма. Новосибирск, 1999, с. 187.
977 «The Economist», February 8, 1998, p. 74.
978 Fredman L. Foreigners Lament: We are Going Nowhere («Nikkei Weekly», April 4, 1994, p. 16).
979 там же.
980 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 81).
981 Blank S. Russia as Rogue Proliferator («Orbis», Winter 2000, p. 99).
982 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21s1 Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 83).
983 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21s' Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 86).
984 Menon R., Wimbush E. Asia in the 21st Century. Power Politics Alive and Well («The National Interest», Spring 2000, p. 82).
985 Modelski G., Tompson W. The Long and Short of Global Politics in the Twenty-first Century: An Evolutionary Approach («International Studies Review». Summer 1999,p.lll).
986 Arrighi G. The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of Our Times. L., 1994.
987 Wallerstein I. The Capitalist World-Economy: Middle-Run Prospects (In: Wallerstein I., ed. Geopolitics and Geoculture: on the Modern World-System. Cambridge, 1989, p. 123–136).
988 Goldstein J. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven, 1988.
989 Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking ofWorld Order. N.Y., 1996.
990 Waltz K. The Emerging Structure of International Politics («International Security», 1993, N18, p. 44–79).
991 Rice С Promoting the National Interest («Foreign Affairs», Jan/Feb. 2000, p. 55).
992 McRae H. The World in 2020. Power, Culture and Prosperity. 1994, p. 270.
993 «Foreign Policy», Spring 1999, p. 112.
994 Schell J. The Folly of Arms Control («Foreign Affairs», September/ October 2000, p. 27).
995 «The Middle East Journal», Summer 1998, p. 341.
996 «American Studies International», February 2000, p. 82.
997 The Military Balance, 1998/99, p. 117.
998 The Military Balance, 1998/99, p. 20.
999 «American Studies International», February 2000, p. 86.
100 °Сценарий взят из: Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking ofWorld Order. New York.Simon and Schuster, 1996, p. 313–314.
1001 Huntington S. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New YorkrSimon and Schuster, 1996, p. 315.
1002 Franck Th. Tribe, Nation, World: Self-Identification in the Evolving International System («Ethics and International Affairs», 1997, N 11, p. 151.
1003 Kennedy P. Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. N.Y., 1993, p. 293.
1004 Menon R. What to Do With American Primacy («Foreign Affairs», September/October 1999, p. 37).
1005 Kissinger H. Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21s1 Century. New York: Simon and Schuster, 2001, p. 287–288.
1006 Уткин А. И. Мировой порядок XXI века… с. 187.
1007 Economist Research Center. The World in 2006. London, 2006, p. 86.
1008 Pearson S. Total War 2006. London: Hodder and Stoughton, 2000, p. 410.
1009 Kaplan R.The World of Achilles. Ancient Soldiers, Modern Warriers ("National Interest", Winter 2001/02, p.40).
1010 America's Place in the World II. Washington: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, October 1997, p. 17–18, 22.
1011 Denemark R. World System History: From Traditional International Politics to the Study of Global Relations («International Studies Review», Summer 1999, p. 59).
1012 Landes D. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor. N.Y., 1998.
1013 McNeill W. How the West Won. («New York Review of Books», April 1998, p. 35–37).
1014 Denemark R. World System History: From Traditional International Politics to the Study of Global Relations («International Studies Review», Summer 1999, p. 58).