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Wednesday, 28 May 2008
Concord Briefing Room
Pentagon, C Ring
Arlington, Virginia
0915 hours EST

"Our target remains the same," the briefing officer said. He clicked the remote control in his hand, and a satellite photo came up on the screen behind him. "Objective White Scimitar, ten kilometers north of the port of Bandar-e Charak. Satellite reconnaissance over the past three months has indicated heavy ongoing construction in this area. In addition, the port facilities themselves are being expanded, and a new road is being cut down out of the mountains, from White Scimitar to Bandar-e Charak.

"And we don't know what the hell they're building over there."

The briefing officer was Gerald Markham, a civilian on the staff of the DNI. The Director of National Intelligence was the relatively new cabinet-level position created by President Bush in the wake of 9/11, a post that had superceded the Director of Central Intelligence in many of his critical functions, including that of giving the President his daily briefing on intelligence matters. The DNI ostensibly ran and coordinated all fifteen of America's spook agencies, a task formerly assigned to the Director of Central Intelligence.

Garrett wondered if the high-echelon shake-up within the intelligence community had made a difference in the efficiency and timeliness of America's spy efforts… or if the change was cosmetic only. So far it didn't look like the office of the DNI knew any more about what was going on in the world than the DCI had.

Markham paused and looked around the room. About twenty people were gathered around the long, hardwood conference table — most in uniform, but a few suits in evidence as well. Garrett recognized the men who'd been in the Pentagon basement room last night — in particular Paul Myers, who'd taken his seat at the head of the table. Most, though, were unknown to him.

"A number of you are new to this working group," Markham continued. "So before looking at White Scimitar in detail, a brief overview of Iran's recent history is in order. You all know the basic outlines, at least. Called Persia until 1935, Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 with the overthrow of the Shah. Highly conservative clerical forces created a theocracy with the ultimate political authority residing in a religious scholar — the Ayatollah — and a Guardian Council of twelve clerics."

Markham had a slow and measured way of speaking that bordered on the pedantic, even the tedious. Garrett wished he would get on with it.

"Of course," Markham said, "U.S. relations with

Tehran have been strained since Iranian students under the guidance of the Ayatollah Khomeini seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on 4 November 1979, and took the American citizens working there hostage. They held over fifty hostages for 444 days, until 20 January 1981.

"From 1980 to 1988, Iran fought an extraordinarily bloody war with Iraq. During that conflict, tanker traffic in the Gulf was threatened by Iranian forces, and that led to several armed clashes between the U.S. Navy and the Iranians.

"Due to its activities in Lebanon and elsewhere, Iran has been designated as a sponsor of global terrorism, and for that reason economic sanctions and export controls remain in effect. During President Bush's 2002 State of the Union address — his famous 'Axis of Evil' speech, he included Iran with the regimes of Iraq and North Korea as nations dedicated to supporting terrorist activities worldwide."

Garrett felt a pang of irritation at that — not at the briefing officer himself, but at the domestic political situation behind his words. Fallout from the war in Iraq continued to sift down on news broadcasts and newspaper editorials across the country. America and Great Britain had invaded Iraq and deposed its leader, Saddam Hussein, in 2003. Though few people either at home or abroad had supported the bloodthirsty Saddam, few thought the war justified, especially when Coalition forces were unable to find WMDs — the weapons of mass destruction Saddam was supposed to be building and hiding.

And as Washington's saber-rattling rhetoric against Iran had grown louder, so too had the voices of protest against a possible war against Iran. Editorialists and activists across America continued to make fun of the

President's emotionally charged comment about an

"Axis of Evil."

"The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to seek to be the dominant power in the Arab Gulf region," Markham continued. "They are actively seeking to become a nuclear power, though they insist that they are interested only in the peaceful uses of nuclear power. Of particular concern to U.S. intelligence is their program of cooperation with the government of North Korea, in which they have shared their nuclear research with Pyongyang in exchange for PDRK long-range missiles and missile guidance technology.

"There is a growing body of evidence that Iran has supported al-Qaeda in numerous ways. Ominously, an Iranian defector gave detailed information to American authorities in Azerbaijan about an upcoming al-Qaeda and Iranian terror attack on New York City just prior to September 11. The report was not confirmed, and Iran was not indicted in the attack, primarily for political reasons. There are also well-attested reports that Iran sheltered Osama bin Laden after his escape from

Afghanistan in 2002 or 2003.

"This potential cooperation between al-Qaeda and the Tehran regime has been downplayed in the past, principally because the revolutionary government of Iran is Shi'ite, whereas Osama bin Laden, the former Taliban government of Afghanistan, and most of al-Qaeda's leadership are all Sunni. These two branches of Islamic belief view one another as heretical, and traditionally there has been little cooperation between the two. We believe, however, that increased pressure from the West is forcing a greater degree of cooperation between them, especially in terms of logistical support, transport, supplies, weapons, and ammunition. 'The enemy of my enemy is my friend' appears to be the new order of the day when it comes to cooperation between disparate Islamic groups.

"The possibility of increased cooperation between the extremist elements of both the Sunnis and the Shi'ites is a matter of considerable concern to us.

"Publicly," Markham went on, "Iran has been pushing for a reduction of tensions with the U.S. for a long time. The government in Tehran claims to want full normalization of relations. More than anything else, they want Washington to lift the freeze on some eleven billion in assets that we slapped on them in 1979, at the beginning of the hostage crisis.

"Privately, however, Iran seems unalterably set on a policy of military buildup, territorial gain, the acquisition of nuclear weapons, and general religious and social destabilization within the Gulf region. This policy keeps them at odds with the United States, and seems destined to lead Iran and the U.S. into head-to-head conflict."

The satellite photograph was replaced by a head shot of a bearded man in a turban.

"This man," Markham said, indicating the face on the screen, "is a real sweetheart. The Ayatollah Karim Amir Moaveni. He's only recently emerged as the supreme leader of the Iranian Guardian Council. Ultrahardliner, ultraconservative. He's something of a living saint to Shi'ites in both Iran and in Afghanistan. And he won out in the power struggle within the twelve-man council that makes all important decisions in Iran.

"It's a little hard for Americans to understand just how powerful this Guardian Council of Twelve really is. They must approve all political decisions, and they approve who may and may not run for office in Iran's elections. In recent years Iran's president has made much of being a reformer… but, believe me, he cannot get into office and he will not stay in office without the express approval of the Guardian Council.

"Back in 2000 the president of Iran was Mohammed Khatami. At the UN, Khatami actually refused to shake hands with President Clinton until he'd checked in with the then-supreme leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, and asked for permission. That permission, by the way, was refused.

"Ayatollah Moaveni has been of particular interest to National Intelligence lately, because he is a staunch militarist… and a hardcore fanatic. In the 1980s he pioneered the use of civilians — including children — to move ahead of advancing Iranian troops to find Iraqi minefields. When Iranian forces recaptured the port of Abadan after the Iraqi invasion, he was one of the clerics who insisted that the war continue, and kept it going for eight bloody years. He was also directly responsible for ordering the assassination of some hundreds of Iranian nationals worldwide: people considered to be enemies of the regime.

"In recent years there's been some loosening of the mullahs' control, some indications that they might be trying to pursue a more liberal policy, both toward the West and toward their own people. The younger segment of the population — teens and twenty-somethings — have been disaffected and restless. They've been protesting by boycotting elections. The mullahs have arranged for what amount to government subsidies for everything from buying a house to getting married, and lifted some of the government controls on dress and public behavior, apparently to defuse that discontent, or at least to keep the younger crowd apathetic.

"Currently, Iran stands at a difficult juncture. The people want greater freedom, especially in the economic sector. The mullahs want to maintain strong control over all aspects of Iranian life… not unlike the late lamented Taliban in Afghanistan, though they haven't been as bloody or as ham-handed as that. The clerical forces have tried to engage civilian support by loosening economic controls somewhat, but their control is backed by the Revolutionary Army; by Savama, the successor to the Shah's Savak secret police; and by gangs of thugs known as the 'Ansar-e Hezbollah.' Those last are gangs of thugs, usually aligned with one or another of the clerics. Their name means 'Helpers of the Party of God,' and they're used to intimidate and physically threaten demonstrators, journalists, and anyone engaged in what the regime considers to be immoral or counterrevolutionary activities.

"The big question in Iran today is whether the ordinary people are going to get sick enough of the human rights abuses to get rid of the clerics.

"So much for the historical background," Markham said. He clicked the remote, and another aerial photo came up, showing a large-scale construction site. "We're now interested in what we're seeing here in the Bandar-e Charak region — at White Scimitar. The DNI has been keeping the President apprised of the construction of the White Scimitar site. Given the current political situation in Iran, and between Tehran and Washington just now, the President has assigned the highest priority to intelligence gathering efforts in this region."

Turning, Markham used a laser pointer to place a bright red dot on the screen. "Some of what we can see here is pretty obvious." The dot swiftly orbited several objects. "We can see bulldozers… new road construction… a rail bed… and what look like concrete bunkers. Over here… these appear to be new barracks, storehouses, and POL storage tanks. If it was just this, we'd assume the facility was a new army base and let it go at that.

"But here are the things that have us concerned." The satellite photo clicked to another shot, closer in, centered on a line of blurry patches at the base of a mountain. Two large dump trucks and a bulldozer were clearly visible in the harsh sunlight. The red dot of the laser pointer circled the dark patches on the hillside.

"These are tunnel entrances, eight of them. Fifteen feet tall, twelve wide… big enough to receive a fair-sized truck or other vehicle. Our satellite recons have shown them moving hundreds of thousands of cubic meters of rock and earth out of that mountainside. Whatever they're building here, most of it is underground, where our spy sats can't see it.

"What is particularly alarming is some ancillary intelligence we received from our Azerbaijani station three months ago. CIA officers in Iran made contact with an Iranian citizen identified as a member of the MKO. That stands for Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a group originally formed to oppose the Shah and his pro-West policies back in the 1960s. Now, the MKO is currently on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations, because of their past use of bombings and assassinations to advance their political agenda. However, they currently oppose the Tehran regime, and have provided us with substantial information about Iran's nuclear, chemical, and biological warfare programs. According to our MKO informant, the White Scimitar site is planned as a storage area for Iranian WMDs."

A ripple of emotion ran down the table, a mingling of suspicion, denial, and a sense of "Oh, no, not that again."

The powerfully negative reaction, Garrett thought, was certainly justified. Rumors of weapons of mass destruction had been the principle public justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and careers had been ruined by the political flak when those WMDs could not be found.

That, of course, didn't mean the weapons hadn't existed. But to the public mind, the government had either lied to the people or been lied to by its own intelligence services, and neither possibility sat well with the voters.

"And that brings us to the failed op yesterday," Markham said, "to Black Stallion. As most of you know, a sixteen-man SEAL platoon was inserted off the coast by PBC. Eight of them moved inland in order to have a close covert look at the White Scimitar site, but encountered a heavy Iranian force — almost certainly a unit of the Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enqelab-e Eslam, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The SEALs successfully fought their way back to the beach. However, one of the PBCs was hit by an Iranian antiship missile and sunk. We lost two SEALs and five other Navy personnel. The rest of them made it back to our base in Oman this morning.

"The mission was a complete failure. They ran into the Pasdaran patrol while still more than a mile from their objective. We're not sure yet, but the Iranian defenses may have been higher tech than expected. The enemy may have been equipped with starlight night vision devices or sophisticated perimeter defense sensors.

"Needless to say, we expect some serious political fallout from this… incident, both at home and abroad. The Iranians will most likely use it to fan anti-American sentiment throughout the Islamic world… and to try to present themselves as the defenders of Islam against American aggression. Our Middle East desk analysts predict that the Shi'ite populations of both

Iraq and Syria could explode in anti-American riots and demonstrations. Israel is afraid that this could provide a major impetus for their ongoing Palestinian insurrection.

"Despite this, the President is still most insistent that we identify the nature of the White Scimitar site, and, in particular, find out what those tunnel entrances are for. To that end, he has authorized a second attempt at the covert infiltration and reconnaissance of Objective White Scimitar. The new mission has been code-named 'Operation Sea Hammer.'

"Obviously, such an attempt must be highly secret. The proposal has been made that a sizable SEAL or Special Forces unit could be put ashore by submarine… specifically by the newly recommissioned SSGN Ohio. To address that possibility, we have Captain Tom Garrett here this morning, of Naval Littoral Warfare. Captain Garrett?"

Garrett pushed back from the table and walked past its length to the front of the room, working to quell the butterfly flutter in his stomach. Commanding a submarine in combat was one thing; addressing a roomful of admirals, generals, and National Security types was something quite else.

Berkowitz had told him what to prepare for, and even quizzed him a bit last night, but the moment was on him now and he found himself nervous as hell.

"Gentlemen," he said as he stepped behind the podium. "Mr. Myers. I think by now most of you have at least seen the stat sheets on the Ohio. Here she is."

He picked up the remote control Markham had left at the podium and clicked it. A color photograph came up on the screen behind him — the Ohio under way, returning from her shakedown cruise six weeks before. The camera had caught her just exiting the Admiralty Inlet as she passed the Twin Spits and Port Ludlow, slipping gently into the quiet waters of the Hood Canal.

"Under the terms of the Start II arms limitations treaty, four of our SSBN boomers were scheduled to be stricken from the fleet. The Ohio, which was our very first Trident sub, was the first launched — back in 1979— and was originally scheduled for decommissioning.

"However, in the early 1990s, Congress directed that Ohio and three of her sister vessels be converted into conventional war-fighting platforms." He clicked the remote, and a schematic came up on the screen, a cutaway showing the submarine's interior. Most of the space aft of the sub's sail appeared to be taken up by a single compartment, the long and cavernous missile room, containing twelve pairs of forty-foot launch tubes down its length.

"As an SSBN, an Ohio-class boat mounts twenty-four launch tubes for Trident ICBMs. In the Ohio conversion to SSGN, each of twenty-two of her launch tubes now mounts seven VLS tubes — that's Vertical Launch System — firing TLAMs. A single converted Ohio-class submarine can carry 154 vertical launch TLAM Tomahawk missiles, the equivalent in cruise-missile firepower of an entire surface battle group.

"In addition, the Ohio now has facilities to carry a sizable special operations force — up to four platoons, or sixty-six men. The remaining two missile launch tubes have been redesigned as airlock compartments, allowing SEALs or other commandos to lock out of the sub while she remains submerged.

" Ohio currently is serving as a test bed for two miniature special-warfare submarines, the Advanced SEAL Delivery System, or ASDS, which has recently been deployed on the new Virginia-class boats, and the experimental prototype Manta SF/NB. Both of these will be useful in conducting covert reconnaissance of hostile coastlines, in advance of a commando insertion, or a full-blown invasion. An ASDS will be operated off the Ohio's aft deck using a Dry Deck Shelter, with access through the lockout tubes. The SF/NB will operate out of one of the missile tubes, which has been temporarily coopted for the test series.

"We envision the Ohio and her sister SSGN conversions giving us a very special capability in Littoral Warfare… the ability to put a sizable covert special-ops unit ashore anywhere in the world, and to support that op from the submarine for the duration of the mission. In other words, Ohio could put a large SEAL team ashore, monitor the progress of the op, provide logistical support and resupply, and handle the extraction and withdrawal at the mission's end. If the situation called for it, the Ohio could lay down a devastating barrage of cruise missiles, either in support of forces ashore or as a means of eliminating the target after the completion of the initial reconnaissance…. "

Garrett was beginning to get into the flow of things, describing the redesigned Ohio boat and how she might be used in Operation Sea Hammer, to an attentive audience. He noticed several in the room were scribbling in notepads as he spoke. Myers, at the head of the table, leaned back in his swivel chair, elbow on the edge of the table, his head propped up on two fingers as he listened with an unreadable expression.

As he completed his presentation, he could feel an almost electric excitement throughout the room.

"… and so it is my considered opinion," he concluded, "that the best platform for this operation by far is the SSGN Ohio. She has just completed her postcon-version sea trials out of the Bangor Trident base. She is scheduled for deployment to Pearl Harbor to take part in a training exercise — Freeboard '08—with a sailing date set for two weeks from yesterday. However, her skipper informs me that she could be ready for departure as early as this coming Saturday, three days from now. She would need to take on board a SEAL unit plus the experimental Manta at Pearl, but allowing for a two-day layover there, she could be in the Gulf of Oman and ready to commence operations by Wednesday, June 25. All that is needed is for me to give the order." He looked at the oval of attentive faces. "Questions?"

"Captain Garrett," a Navy admiral said. His name tag read scofield, and he was CONAVSPECWAR— the commanding officer of all Naval Special Warfare units, including the Navy SEALs.

"Yes, sir."

"Just how close can this submarine get to the coast in that region?" Scofield asked with a pronounced mid-western twang. "The water is damned shallow in there, and you have Bandar Abbas right up the coast. Iranian waters will be mined, and the Straits of Hormuz have a nasty reputation for shoals and tight corners."

"As close as we need to, Admiral. The final decision will be up to the SEAL Team leader, and the captain of the Ohio, of course."

"That's my point, Captain. Sub drivers always want the SEALs to go in over the horizon. SEALs want the sub to put them on the beach."

Garrett nodded. This was an old and familiar tactical discussion within both the SF and submarine communities. "That's one reason for the Ohio conversion, Admiral. The Ohio is big, and won't be able to enter waters much shallower than a hundred feet and still stay submerged, but she can carry a lot of special equipment — including a couple of ASDVs. Those have an operational range of over one hundred nautical miles, and can carry eight SEALs apiece. The idea is to give the striking force as much flexibility — as many options — as possible."

"Well, now, correct me if I'm wrong… but an Ohio-class boomer is about as maneuverable as an eighteen-wheeler on the Beltway at rush hour. We've already lost a PBC in there; why the hell should we risk a nuclear sub?"

"Fair question, sir." Garrett didn't add that no naval officer of his acquaintance would consider it a career-positive move to correct an admiral… even if he was wrong. "I think the best answer I can give you is that submarines are designed to be sneaky. An Ohio-class boat is quiet. Even with the ASDS on her afterdeck, she's damned tough to pick up on sonar, and shallow waters make sonar detection even more challenging. Her skipper might take a couple of days to maneuver in as close as he needs to go, but she won't make a sound and the enemy will never know she's there. Patrol boats are surface craft, they are noisy, and they are easy to spot, visually and by radar." He hesitated, then took a deep breath. "Admiral, in my considered opinion, it was a serious tactical error sending Black Stallion in on board PCBs. That's what submarines are for."

"Captain Garrett," Myers said. "Why not deploy off of a Los Angeles boat? Or the Seawolf? We've used them for Special Forces missions in the past."

"Yes, sir, we have. And they've done well in that capacity. However, SSNs are attack boats. With SEALs on board, they're damned crowded, and they can't haul as much equipment along. The Ohio conversion is designed to serve as an advance operational base, remember. Attack boats are not.

"There's also the difference in firepower to consider. A Los Angeles Flight III boat has twelve vertical launch tubes for TLAMs. In addition, she can carry up to twenty-six tube-launched weapons… so, theoretically, she could carry thirty-eight Tomahawk missiles, though in practice, of course, some of her tube-launched weapons will be torpedoes or Harpoon antiship missiles.

"Even shy a couple of tubes for the ASDV and a Manta experimental fighter, as she is now, the Ohio can carry 140 Tomahawk missiles. That, sir, is one hell of a punch."

Myers nodded. "You've made your point, Captain. Thank you for your presentation." Garrett took his seat.

But had he made his point? Decisions at the Pentagon, so often, seemed to be made by committee. Concepts went in through one door, but what came out was rarely recognizable even to their creators.

It would have been humorous if men's lives weren't so often riding on the outcome.

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