Point of Contact

7

He’d read somewhere that the Chinese ideograph for the word crisis was supposedly composed of the two words for opportunity and danger. Even if it wasn’t true, President Jack Ryan found it relevant to today’s meeting.

The President sat on the far end of the long mahogany conference table. All of the tall leather chairs surrounding the table were empty except for the four next to him. In times of national crisis every chair would be filled, and deputy assistants would crowd the rest of the room, either sitting or standing. But today he wasn’t facing a crisis — at least, not yet. He certainly saw an opportunity, but he also sensed extreme danger for the nation if he made the wrong choice in the next thirty minutes.

President Ryan was flanked on his left by Mary Pat Foley, the director of national intelligence, and Robert Burgess, the secretary of defense. On his right sat the secretary of state, Scott Adler, and the President’s chief of staff, Arnold Van Damm, the only political voice he allowed in the room. Arnie’s hair was long gone and the lines in his careworn face were deeper than when the President had first met him, but the pale blue eyes — and the brain behind them — were as keen as ever.

That was it. These were four of his most trusted advisers. Ryan didn’t want a cacophony of political opinions or academic theories clouding the room. He needed only the clear, sober, actionable analysis these four would give him in order to make his decision, and quickly.

“Thank you all for coming on such short notice — and for keeping this meeting just between us. We don’t need public opinion or the Hill getting ahead of us on this.”

They all nodded. “Of course, Mr. President,” Mary Pat Foley said. “We understand completely and we serve at your discretion.”

Ryan poured himself a cup of black coffee from the service in front of them and invited the others to do the same. “We don’t have much time to make this call. You know I count on each of you for your honest and candid opinions. I know you’ve all been briefed by Mary Pat, but I want to catch you up on the facts before we proceed. Mary Pat.”

The director of national intelligence picked up a remote control and pointed it at one of the big wall monitors. She talked through the video from the SBIRS GEO-3 infrared missile-warning satellite as it played on the screen.

“As you all know, the North Koreans managed to successfully launch a MIRV’d SLBM yesterday at approximately five p.m. EST. The missile carried three dummy warheads, each landing harmlessly, thankfully, in the northern Pacific Ocean with no loss of life or property damage. Nevertheless, the event is significant for several reasons.

“First, we had no idea that the missile in question — the Pukkuksong-1—had this kind of range. Either the missile has been improved or our intelligence estimates were way off base.”

“Or it’s not the KN-11 at all,” the SecDef said, preferring the American designation. “It could be an entirely different weapon. It has nearly the same performance characteristics as our Polaris A-1, which we first deployed back in 1962.”

Jack Ryan smiled to himself. It never failed to amaze him how technologically advanced the United States was compared to the rest of the world. Most of the planet still wasn’t able to achieve what his parents’ generation had accomplished fifty years earlier.

Mary Pat continued. “Our second concern is that we had no idea that the North Koreans had acquired MIRV technology — another intelligence failure.” She frowned when she said this. As the titular head of America’s civilian intelligence community, she felt personally responsible for the current crisis.

“Third, because they’ve acquired MIRV technology, it’s only a matter of time before they move from three warheads to seven, ten, or even more on this platform. Multiple, independently targeted warheads means that each missile has more target opportunities and greater capacity to defeat any kind of ABM defense with decoys and countermeasures. That changes the strategic equation in Asia, especially when the North Koreans are able to arm them with nuclear warheads. But what’s particularly worrisome is the idea of the North Koreans deploying MIRV technology on their land-based ICBM platforms. The Taepodong-3 has a range of eight thousand miles. At that point they become a world power, like it or not.”

“And we removed all of our MIRVs from our ICBMs a few years ago,” Ryan said. He was a trained security analyst, so it didn’t take long for him to process the implications. “If we don’t stop the North Koreans from MIRVing, we’ll have to go back to it ourselves, and that will launch another nuclear arms race between us, the Russians, and the Chinese.”

“Exactly our concerns, Mr. President,” Mary Pat said as the SecDef nodded in agreement.

Ryan sighed, frustrated. Like everyone else involved at the time, he assumed that the coup ousting Choi Ji-hoon two years ago was going to solve the North Korean problem. Obviously it hadn’t.

Ryan rubbed his chin, thinking. “Can someone please tell me why the North Koreans are still hell-bent on their strategic nuclear program? They still can’t produce enough food to feed their own people.”

“We’ve been asking ourselves that same question since their first nuclear test in 2006,” the SecState said. “Power, prestige, leverage, blackmail. Pick one. Or pick all of them.”

“They also see it as a deterrent,” Mary Pat said.

The President frowned. “Deterrent? From whom?”

“From us, the South Koreans, and the West, generally. And even China, truth be told, especially after the role they played in Ji-hoon’s overthrow.”

“Nobody is planning on invading North Korea,” the SecDef said. “This idea of Western aggression is all a fiction, designed to keep the population under control.”

“Agreed,” Mary Pat said. “But that’s why their missile and nuclear programs are so important. The majority of North Koreans have no access to outside news sources, and most of them have been brainwashed to believe that the United States and our allies are aggressively seeking the chance to invade. But the North Korean people aren’t stupid. They see the scarcity of resources and they’re the ones that have suffered the most under this regime. So when they see Chairman Choi spending billions of dollars on nuclear bombs and long-range missiles instead of food and housing, it only reinforces the government’s message that the West is hostile — otherwise, why would the ‘benevolent’ government spend all that money? It’s a devil’s logic, but it works.”

“For the true believers it works. But the dissidents know better,” the secretary of state said.

Mary Pat shook her head. “But the dissidents are quickly killed or imprisoned in one of Choi’s gulags. Compared to their internal security apparatus, Stalin’s NKVD looks like a wedding planning service.”

Ryan leaned forward on the table, folding his hands. “So to bottom line this discussion, what we’re saying is that the North Korean missile and nuclear programs are about external and internal security, which really means it’s all about Choi Ha-guk staying in power. Is that right?”

The others nodded in agreement. Mary Pat added, “So long as any member of the Choi family is in power, the North Koreans will continue to pursue their missile and nuclear programs.”

“Okay. So the first question on the table is this: What can the United States do about that? How can we effect regime change unilaterally?”

“Without Chinese cooperation, we can’t — and we certainly wouldn’t want to risk a conflict with them,” Burgess said.

Ryan turned to Burgess. “Forget China for just one minute. Is it even possible for us to overthrow the Choi power structure through overt military action?”

“We’ve been war-gaming scenarios about this for over six decades — technically, we’re still in a state of war with North Korea. Under the best scenario, we would expect mass civilian casualties in South Korea and the deaths of many thousands more in the north. If ever there was a definition of a Pyrrhic victory, this would be it.”

Secretary of State Adler quickly added, “Which is why our South Korean allies are completely against any kind of offensive military action.”

“What about a complete economic embargo?” Ryan asked.

“For all intents and purposes, there is one — except the Chinese might not enforce it. Without their complete cooperation, it isn’t possible,” Adler said. “And even if it were, it would only hurt the innocent civilians. The leaders won’t suffer. If you include food in the embargo, then another mass famine would result.”

“So as far as you all are concerned, we have no unilateral options available to us to stop the North Korean missile and nuclear programs or effect regime change,” Ryan said.

Again, all heads nodded in agreement.

“The only hope we have of either is China. They hold all the cards,” the secretary of defense said.

“Which is the real reason why we’re here,” Ryan said. He turned to Mary Pat. “Thank you for the summary analysis.” He turned to the others. “Now for the question at hand.” He poured himself another cup of coffee as he said, “Scott, tell us what the Chinese have proposed.”

The secretary of state squared his shoulders. “I have received an unofficial inquiry from my Chinese counterpart regarding our openness to a face-to-face meeting between the heads of state of China, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and, of course, the United States. It would be held next month in Beijing.”

“Regarding the North Korean situation?” Burgess asked.

Adler nodded. “President Zhao’s government has expressed concern over recent developments.”

“They always ‘express concern’ after every nuclear and missile test. But it’s all hot air,” the defense secretary said. “The problem is that they’re the ones supplying most of that technology.”

“Zhao’s government is doing that?” Ryan asked.

The SecDef shrugged. “Officially, no. But someone in Zhao’s government is. Whether or not it’s sanctioned by Zhao is still a question mark.”

Mary Pat added, “The South Koreans are convinced the Chinese provided the North Koreans with cold launch capability. It only took them months to perfect it when it should’ve taken years. Same goes for the MIRV tech, we’re certain.”

“So the Chinese provided the MIRV technology and now they want a summit with us because they’re worried about it? That doesn’t make any sense,” the chief of staff said.

The secretary of state shook his head, smiling. “Welcome to Chinese internal politics.”

“If China holds all the cards, and if Zhao is truly concerned, why doesn’t he just take care of the problem?” Ryan asked.

Adler shrugged. “Same answer, I’m afraid. Internal politics. There are factions within the Politburo and within the military that are at odds with Zhao on the issue. Beyond that, we really don’t have a clue. Right now we have to ask ourselves what they have to gain and what we have to lose by turning down President Zhao’s offer.”

“I’m confused. What exactly is he offering?” Burgess asked.

“That was my question to the foreign minister. He was intentionally vague, but he insisted his government is as interested as we are in North Korean regime change. Beyond that, he doesn’t want to show his cards until he has a commitment from us to attend the security summit.”

The chief of staff frowned. “So we don’t know what their specific proposals are for stopping the North Koreans?”

“No. But he emphasized it would be a permanent solution.”

“I’m not interested in anything less,” Ryan said. “We need to solve the North Korean problem once and for all before we’re all dragged into World War Three.”

Van Damm shook his head. “So the President is supposed to fly halfway around the world to find out what Zhao’s plan is? That’s ridiculous. Why can’t he tell us up front?”

“He might be afraid of a leak on our end — a real possibility with some of the old ‘China hands’ lurking in the bureaucracy. Or he’s worried that we’ll reject his proposal and then we’ll tell someone else about it,” Adler said.

“It must be something big,” Ryan said. “Something that affects his position, or the factions that oppose him. What do we know about the political power structure inside China right now?”

“Frankly, not enough,” Mary Pat admitted. “The tectonic plates are still shifting.”

Ryan turned to Adler. “Can we trust Zhao?”

“We don’t have any reason not to at this point, but frankly, we don’t know enough about him, either.”

“But he needs to keep his cards close to the vest on this thing. That tells me his position might not yet be fully secure,” Ryan said, the wheels turning in his mind. “And the fact he needs to keep this secret and to do it quickly sounds like this will be a decisive action. Something strategic, not tactical.” Ryan turned to his SecDef. “Sound about right, Robert?”

“I think you’re onto something, sir.”

Van Damm leaned forward. “Excuse me, but I think we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves here. If he doesn’t want to tell us up front, why can’t he fly over here to tell us what’s going on?”

Ryan grinned. “Maybe the new Chinese president is afraid of flying.”

“More likely, he’s afraid of leaving his country. Again, it speaks to the idea he’s still consolidating his position,” Mary Pat said.

Adler added, “And Zhao must think he needs you standing at his side to carry out his plan, not to mention draw the other heads of state to the summit.”

“Or Zhao wants the President standing there next to him holding the bag when the summit goes sideways,” Van Damm countered.

Ryan sat back in his chair, tenting his fingers in front of him, thinking. “Scott, what happens if we turn the summit down?”

“If we turn Zhao down and he’s committed to North Korean regime change, he’ll turn to the Russians, since Zhao obviously can’t do it on his own — otherwise, why call us? Given the current geopolitical realities in Europe and Asia, we don’t want a renewed Chinese-Russian alliance. That would strengthen China’s hand in the South and East China Seas, and that means we’d have to devote even more of our air and naval assets to the region, potentially weakening our ability to respond to any new Russian threats in Europe.”

“I agree with that assessment,” the SecDef said.

“So do I,” Ryan said. “And that ain’t good. Now give me the downsides to showing up for this thing.”

“This summit might be another huge waste of time where everyone gets all excited but nothing substantive actually happens,” Van Damm said.

SecDef Burgess added, “Maybe the Chinese want us to waste our time and only appear to be concerned so they can continue their buildup of North Korea.” He pointed at the monitor. “They know that we know what’s going on over there, and they know we’re concerned. This might just be sleight of hand on their part.”

“It’s also a prestige play for them,” Secretary Adler said. “No matter the outcome of the summit, the fact that they invited us to Beijing to solve a regional crisis and that we accepted the invitation reinforces the impression that they are the dominant power in Asia and coequals with us. And if the summit fails, they’ll blame us.”

Van Damm added, “To some, it might even look more like a summons than an invitation. Especially since this is the second time you will have flown to Beijing to meet with a Chinese president.”

“And perception is reality in politics,” Adler was quick to add. “Especially in Asia.”

“There’s one other possibility,” Van Damm said. “You show up and he springs a plan on you that puts us in a bind.”

Adler shook his head. “If he does that, we’d walk away and he’d look the fool. I don’t think Zhao will offer anything that we can’t agree to.”

“So there are plenty of downsides,” Ryan said. “But despite those, there’s still the real possibility that the Chinese have a plan that will permanently change the situation on the Korean peninsula,” Ryan said. “That interests me.”

The President’s eyes narrowed, his mind concentrating. The others watched in silence as he put all of the pieces together. Finally, he leaned forward on the table.

“The dilemma as I see it is this: risk wasting our time and looking like fools at a worthless summit, or risk losing the opportunity to solve the North Korean problem once and for all. Is that about the size of it?”

They all agreed.

Ryan smiled a little. “When I put it that way, the decision seems clear. It’s worth the risk, given the possible reward, even if it means another long damn airplane ride. Let’s do this.”

“I’ll contact the foreign minister directly and tell him that we’re interested,” Adler said.

“I’ve got a better idea. Arrange for me to speak with President Zhao directly. I want to take the measure of the man myself and show him I’m serious.”

Adler smiled. “That’s an excellent idea, Mr. President.”

Ryan stood, signaling that the meeting was over. The others stood, too. “Thank you all. I’ll be in touch.”

As the others shuffled out, Ryan poured himself another coffee. The Chinese could be handing him an opportunity for sure. But he also knew from boot camp that the bullet you didn’t hear was the one that took your head off.