Prelude to World War Three: The Rise of the Islamic Republic and the Rebirth of America

Infiltration

“Muhammad, are we ready for Operation Allah’s Fire?”

“Yes, our operatives have infiltrated the Port of Baltimore, Port of Houston, Port of LA, and several contracting companies that provide services at two of the major utility companies that provide power to the northeast part of the US,” Muhammad said as he lit his cigarette.

“Excellent. I am glad that you have included several ports, in case one does not work out.”

“As of right now, the primary targets are the port of Baltimore and the port of LA. We have people infiltrating the Houston port in case we need a fall back plan; some of our people believe we should also make use of our LNG tankers. They would act like mini-nuclear bombs if they were full when they are detonated.”

“That is not a bad idea, but the Americans only export LNG, and they only use a couple of companies for security purposes. I am not convinced a shipment from one of our front companies would be able to get through.”

Wanting to discuss the main operation, Caliph Mohammed said, “Tell me about the plans against the American power companies in the Northeast that you mentioned.”

“The primary attack against the Northeast part of the US is going to take place in the dead of winter, when electricity is needed most. The plan for our groups that have infiltrated the power companies is for them to destroy several critical transformer nodes from the inside. One group even plans to destroy one of the power plants directly with explosives.”

“When the power goes out, it will cause a number of things to happen. First, people will lose power in the throes of winter, which will prove deadly as it will take more than a couple of weeks to repair. Second, with no power there will be a lot of looting as people run out of food. Third, we have 200 fighters broken down into numerous smaller direct action units that will go on a killing spree all across the major cities. After the first five days, those fighters that are still alive will do their best to fade away into the population and move to their next assignment once they are able to check the draft emails in their accounts.”

Huseen ibn Abdullah, the Director of Intelligence, made a point to mention, “We are staggering the attacks to take place over an extended period of time, to cause as much fear and damage to the American psyche as possible. Some of our three and five-man direct action units will conduct random and uncoordinated attacks on malls, supermarkets, movie theaters and elementary schools, mostly across small and rural towns, cities and the suburbs outside of the major cities. These attacks will be harder to deter and even harder to predict; we believe this will increase their likelihood of success and cause more casualties.”

“How are we going to ensure these attacks coincide with the two nuclear bombs?” asked Caliph Abbas.

“The plan right now is to have the nuclear weapons detonate two days apart from each other; the first one will hit Washington DC during the first day of the new Congress in January of 2041. The vast majority of the government will be in session that week, giving us the highest likelihood of decapitating a large swath of their government. In the evening, the President is supposed to have a dinner with the Prime Minister of Israel, so it is possible that we may take him out as well,” said Zaheer Akhatar, the Caliph’s Senior Advisor.

“This is also when we will issue our ultimatum to the US to stop supporting Israel and to leave the Middle East and Europe alone. We know they will not agree to these demands, and that is when we will have the second device detonate two days later. After dealing with two months of terrorist attacks across their country, the blackout on New Year’s Day in the northeast and then two nuclear bombs, the country will be in a panic and they will agree to our terms. If they do not, then the attacks will continue and their economy and country will grind to a halt,” said Talal, the Foreign Minister.

The Caliph smiled a sinister grin. “At long last, we will be able to pay the Americans back for all of the wars they have waged on our lands. We need to remember that when this happens and the Americans are most panicked, they will lash out and it will not take them long to do so. What contingency plans do we have in place to deal with the Americans once this occurs?”

“We have the most advanced surface-to-air defense systems, the same ones both the Russians and Chinese have. Our anti-missile laser defense system is now operational and will be able to protect the industrial heartland of our country and the major population centers from any ballistic nuclear missiles or bombers the Americans may try to hit us with,” said Muhammad.

“I hope you and our advisors are right. This is going to either devastate the Americans or it is going to cause them to lash out and destroy us. Are the plans for Israel ready?” said Abbas.

“The operation is ready to start on New Year’s Day.”

“What are we going to do about the American carrier battlegroup in the Mediterranean?” asked Abbas.

“Our plan is to saturate their defenses with missiles and then slip in a nuclear missile to finish off the battle group. Once the operation begins, Israel and the Americans will be bombarded with missiles, and while these are raining down, our armored forces will be racing across the border and will drive their army into the sea,” said General Rafik Hamza, the commander of the IR military.

Huseen ibn Abdullah was the director of the Islamic Republic’s intelligence service. He had been the head of intelligence in Egypt, and was instrumental in Egypt joining the IR several years earlier. Changing subjects, he said, “Caliph, if you are ready, I have the briefing of our activities in Mexico completed for your viewing,” Huseen linked his tablet with the holographic monitor and began to bring forward several reports.

“True to their word, the cartels have held up their end of the bargain. They have so thoroughly infiltrated the police and military, and they are ready to take over as soon as we give them the word. We have also secured the cooperation of numerous senior defense officials.”

“This is good news indeed. Have they asked for any additional weapons?”

“They have asked us for a 2,000 SA-18 Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS) and three thousand additional RPG-7V rockets along with eight hundred additional launchers.”

“Why so many MANPADS and the new RPG-7Vs?” asked the Caliph with concern. “I am not sure how badly that will cut into our own reserves.”

“Their assessment (and I have to concur) is that once the coup takes place, the Americans will most likely intervene. When this happens, they will need to turn to guerrilla tactics. The SA-18s will aid them in shooting down the American drones and pose a huge risk to their attack helicopters. The specific RPG rockets they are asking for are the High Explosive Anti-Tank (HEAT) rockets, which destroy just about any armored vehicles the Americans bring. They have RPGs, but the rockets are only fragmentation rounds; they needed these to take out tanks and armored vehicles.”

“I understand now, but do not send them that many. Send them about one third of their request. There is no way they will need more than that. Also, I want you to send a few thousand advisors to assist them in the coming conflict. Our advisors can also help in taking down those American helicopters.”

“As you wish; I’ll see how many Commandos I can get reassigned to Mexico.”

“Once the coup takes place, how reliable is their military going to be? Are they going to be effective?” asked Abbas.

“Their military is pretty infiltrated already, and we have several high level officers on our payroll. The military will be brought in line within the first couple of days. Some units may not respond or go along with the coup, but those units can be dealt with. As for how effective the army will be…not very effective. Their plan is to try and hold their own at some strategic locations, and then between their propaganda and ours, they will try to rally the people against the Americans once they invade. Their plan is to move everything to a sustained guerrilla war, which will drain the Americans of even more troops. With US Forces entangled in Mexico, it will limit their options in aiding Israel; add to that the chaos our sleeper units will be causing, and a large portion of the American military will be unavailable.”

“There are a lot of moving parts. How are we going to ensure the American intelligence agencies do not discover this before the operation is able to start?” asked Caliph Mohammed.

“There is no guarantee. We have a lot of activity going on in Africa and we are starting to stir things up in the EU, mainly in France, Germany and England. We just need them to be distracted; this is also why we cannot delay the operation. The longer we postpone, the more likely it is that someone will figure out what we are doing.”

“I agree. What other items do we need to discuss?”

“I think we should talk about the nuclear warheads. I still believe that if we use them, the Americans are going to use theirs against us. We can still accomplish our goals without the use of nuclear weapons.”

“I know we can make things work without the nukes, but I want to use them. We want to level Washington DC and wipe out as much of the government as possible in the process. They may use nuclear weapons against us, but we are a huge sprawling empire. We can absorb some hits like India did. We also have our laser defense system; I am confident we will be able to shoot down their missiles,” said the Caliph.

He continued further, saying, “The damage that will be done to America will be devastating. I am just not sure where the second bomb should go off. Part of me wants to have it go off in New York, and then the practical side says we should use it against a target that will cripple their economy.”

“I suggest using it against Houston or Port of Los Angeles. Houston would hurt their energy exports and refinery capacity. The Port in LA, however, would wipe out their largest and probably their most important port, not to mention the damage it will do to the city,” Talal said.

“I will have to take that under advisement, Talal.”

“I think it is also time for us to get things going in Mexico. Let’s stir that hornet nest and get the Americans involved. The sooner they become truly entangled the better,” said the Caliph.

“As you wish,” said General Rafik Hamza.

“Do we have any other business we need to discuss?”

“No Caliph, I will have another update of our progress ready for you in two weeks.”

“Monty, we need the President down in the Situation Room,” said General Branson.

“What’s going on?” asked Monty with a bit of concern in his voice.

“Monty, this is Jim Wise. We need the President down in the situation room ASAP, please get him.”

“All right, I’ll track him down. I believe he was out for a short walk to clear his head,” said Monty as he looked for an exit that would lead him towards the President.

As Monty was walking towards the rose garden, he spotted the President smelling one of the roses still in bloom. “Mr. President, we need you down in the Situation Room — something is going on,” Monty said as he moved towards the President.

“Is it really so urgent that it cannot wait fifteen minutes? You know I like to take a short walk after breakfast to clear my head before the day’s schedule.”

“Yes Mr. President, it’s important. Jim Wise, Eric, and General Branson are all down there waiting for you.”

“Well if they are all there, then I suppose it really must be important.” Henry sighed deeply, knowing something must have gone wrong that would require him to make a decision he would rather not have to deal with right now.

As the President walked into the Situation Room, he could see by the looks on everyone’s faces it was grim news. “Gentlemen, this had better be important.”

“Mr. President, it’s critical. One of our agents in the Mexican Army told his handler yesterday that the cartels had just received a very large shipment of weapons from the IR, MANPADS and RPG-7V rockets,” said the National Security Director as he looked up from his tablet.

“We’ve known for some time that the IR has been shipping weapons to the cartels. We’ve intercepted some of these weapon shipments in the past; if I am not mistaken, the Mexican Army has as well. Why is this such bad news, Jim?” asked the President clearly annoyed.

“The cartels are planning a coup and the Mexican Army is in on it,” General Branson blurted out.

“Our source said his unit just received orders directing them to be ready to attack the Presidential Palace and secure the major government buildings in Mexico City,” Jim said.

“What about the rest of their military? Are they in on it as well?” asked the President.

“Not all of the units are in on the coup. Our source said he is going along with the coup plans for the moment, but when it comes time to execute his orders he’s going to move to safeguard the Palace and the government buildings, not seize them.”

“Have we alerted their President about this impending coup?”

“Not yet. We are not sure who in the government we can alert without notifying the wrong people. Our source in the military said he believes his commanding general is part of the coup, so informing the military is not going to work, and neither will the police. They have been heavily infiltrated by the cartels, so nothing stays a secret with them.”

“So what’s our plan then? Do we have one?”

“We have the military option we discussed earlier in the year, Mr. President. If the coup does happen, then we can initiate our plan,” General Branson said, not knowing if the President would want to act now or play a “wait and see” approach.

“What are your thoughts, Monty?”

“This is a hard one. On the one hand, if we do nothing, then the cartels will more or less take over the country. This will give the IR a willing partner on our Southern border, which is something we want to avoid. On the other hand, if we do intervene, it’s going to require a lot of troops and resources,” said Monty.

“Eric you’re the SecDef, what are your thoughts?” asked the President.

“Well, General Branson is right. This gives us the pretext to act on our previous discussion we had about this situation. The government is going to fall, we know that. I propose we let this play out and once the dust has settled, then we execute our plan and intervene; this way we can hopefully eliminate the leadership once they have come forward to form their new government.”

“You’re talking about the plans to annex Mexico?” Jim asked.

“That’s exactly what I am talking about,” said Eric.

“I still think the annexation of Mexico is not a wise move, Mr. President. There are just too many problems in Mexico that we will be inheriting,” said Jim Wise, the Secretary of State.

“I have to agree with Secretary Wise, Mr. President. We can annex Mexico, but managing it is going to be a difficult problem,” Attorney James Roberts said.

“What are your thoughts, Jorge?”

“America has been dealing with problems from Mexico for nearly a hundred years. The country is rife with crime and totally corrupt. If you are willing to keep Mexico under martial law for a few years and give us time to root out the cartels, I believe we can make it work. I think we should just annex it if we are going to get involved,’ the Director of Homeland Security, Jorge Perez, said.

“I understand the logic and concerns in annexing Mexico. It would solve a lot of problems, but it would also bring a lot of problems that we do not need right now. When I first came to office, I told the American people that we would not get involved in foreign wars unless American security was threatened. Because of Mexico’s proximity to us and our shared border, I believe this constitutes an immediate threat. With that said, I do not believe America should have to shoulder the burden of nation building. If America is going to intervene abroad, then we are going to keep what we take and America will be the one to benefit, not some corrupt government that always seems to come to power once we hand it over,” said the President, who had clearly made his mind up now.

“Jim, I want your staff to work up an exercise with the DOJ, DHS and the FBI on how we would begin to implement our law enforcement agencies into Mexico once annexation begins. Let’s frame this as an exercise to downplay the possibility of this happening, but I want a plan ready within the next 21 days.”

“That’s a tight timeline, Mr. President. I’ll see what we can do,” Jim said as he wrote down some notes in his tablet.

“Well, I guess we wait and see what happens next,” said the President as he stood up and left the Situation Room.

The Russians continued their preparations for their own attack against the EU, while China and the Islamic Republic continued to plot their own assaults against the Americans.

“Mr. President, it would appear the Islamic Republic has presented us with a unique opportunity. They are moving forward with their attack on the US,” said Nicolai, with a mischievous smile.

“Have we learned the full details of the attack yet?”

“Not yet. We know some of it, and we know they plan on attacking the Israelis,” said General Sergun, reading the latest intelligence feeds of his tablet.

“Do we know when they plan on attacking the Israelis? What type of assault are they going to launch?” asked the President, curious to know if the IR would use nuclear weapons or some other type of WMD.

“We believe they are going to launch their attack around the New Year, although we are not sure of the exact date. As of right now, it looks like they plan on launching a massive conventional missile attack all across Israel, specifically targeting their military bases. This raid will be quickly followed up by their military attacking through several invasion points, so no WMD as of right now,” replied General Sergun, the director of the GRU (Russia’s military intelligence division). General Sergun loved to use the multi-dimensional maps and graphs when presenting war plans. They made everything seem more aligned and perfect, or at least they did to him.

“Their first invasion point is across the Golan Heights; if they can break through, then they will be able to drive deep into Israel quickly. The Israelis know this, so they will send a large part of their forces in that direction. A second front will be initiated from the north along what used to be Lebanon. A third front will then be opened in the south near the American naval base in Eilat on the Red Sea. The fourth front will come from the Sinai, and the fifth attack, which is the main assault, will come through the Jordan Valley towards Jerusalem.”

“From what we have gathered, the attack in the Golan along with the assault in the south will happen almost simultaneously, and then 12 hours after the first violence erupts, the other three fronts will begin their invasions,” General Sergun said while changing some slides and maps on the holograph.

“It sounds like they might actually have a chance of beating the Israelis if they do not go nuclear, which I highly suspect they will,” said President Fradkov, not believing for a minute that the Israelis would not use atomic weapons if they were about to be overrun.

“If the Israelis go nuclear, the IR will as well. I do not believe the Israelis would survive even if they did go nuclear. One point of concern that I am not sure the IR has fully accounted for is the use of land-based and mobile anti-missile laser defenses. These can also be used to target aircraft, and if the Israelis are somehow able to achieve or maintain air superiority, the IR is going to have a much tougher time. Unless Israel receives massive reinforcements from the Americans, they will probably only be able to hold out between five and seven days,” General Gerasimov said, stealing Sergun’s thunder.

“The IRs placement of mobile and fixed anti-missile/aircraft laser defense systems guarding Israel will make it hard for them to use their nuclear weapons too,” Nicolai interjected.

“What forces do the Americans have in the area that they could use to help Israel?”

“They have a carrier battle group operating in the Eastern Mediterranean and another in the Indian Ocean/Red Sea area along with a Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) with about 2,500 Marines. The MEF is about the only unit that could quickly come to their aid. Though there is still an airborne battalion in Italy; that would add another 550 paratroopers to the mix,” General Sergun said as he lit another cigarette, ignoring General Gerasimov’s request to share one with him.

“It sounds like our hopes and dreams are being answered. The Americans will be bogged down in Mexico and then Israel. They really won’t be able to provide any meaningful support to the EU,” the President said with a wicked grin on his face.

“That is true. The next test will be Great Britain and the EU,” Sergun said.

“Yes, but they do not pose a serious threat to our forces. Our Air Force is on par with theirs these days and they do not have the ground forces needed to stop us,” Gerasimov said.

“Let’s hold a military exercise in mid-January along the NATO lines. We’ll make this a joint exercise with our Belarus and Eastern Ukrainian allies. We need to make sure we include NATO officers to ensure we defuse their apprehension. Once the IR attack is in full motion against the US and Israel, then we can make our move.”

“True, Mr. President. We had planned to attack the EU next fall; the IR is going to make us move our timeline up sooner than we had anticipated. If we coincide our winter training exercise with the timing of the IR’s attack, we could redirect the training to a full-on invasion of the EU and a combined first strike against the Americans. Our forces will have been dispersed and have crossed into the EU, so neither the EU nor the Americans would launch nuclear weapons at them,” General Sergun said devilishly.

“Despite our forces being dispersed, the Americans will respond with nuclear weapons if we use them on their troops; it’s part of their standard procedures.”

“Mr. President, to launch nuclear weapons the Americans need their President to authorize it, if he is not available then it passes down to the Vice President, next it goes to the Speaker of the House. All of these people will be at the inauguration and if the IR plan works, they will have decapitated all of the people in the line of succession that could authorize an attack,” said General Gerasimov.

“What is the state of our ballistic missile defense system?”

“We have twenty-one pulse beam batteries covering the likely approaches their missiles would take from either submarine launch or their missile silos. In addition, we have recently launched four new weather satellites that are part of our space-based laser missile defense system. Our primary concern would be their stealth bombers; we may be able to identify some of them, but more than a few would slip through our defenses,” said General Sergun.

“The question we have to ask is this — can we inflict enough crippling damage to knock the Americans out of the war at the start and secure the rest of Europe? And can we absorb the damage the Americans are most likely to inflict?” asked President Fradkov. “The other question is — will the Chinese play their part and strike the American West Coast and their Pacific Fleet?”

“During our last talks with the Chinese, they seemed like they would do their part. They want to absorb Southeast Asia and the Rice Bowl it would bring; they may even look to secure Australia if the Americans are knocked out of the equation. The hardest challenge our forces and the Chinese will have is ensuring we coordinate our attacks to coincide with the Islamic Republic’s assault,” General Gerasimov said.

“Yes, it will be a challenge trying to synchronize everything, but I am not sure we will have an opportunity like this ever again. If we and the Chinese choose not to join in this attack, the Americans will recover quickly and obliterate the Islamic Republic. If we limit our first strike to purely military targets, chances are if the Americans respond, they will likewise limit their strikes to our military facilities as well. The GRU believes our missile defense will help reduce the number of potential strikes we would absorb; our only real concern is wondering how effective the Americans missile defense system is,” said General Sergun.

“Let’s move forward as if we are going to execute this operation with the IR and the Chinese; if we need to cancel the operation, we can do so right up until the last minute if we believe the Chinese are not going to be able to pull off their end, perhaps we even let the Chinese launch the first attack and while the Americans are responding to that threat, we hit them,” said the President.