Rogue Forces

BBC NEWS ONLINE, 30 OCTOBER 2007:

…Tensions between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurdish region had been rising steadily in the months running up to the current crisis, triggered by PKK attacks which have killed some forty Turkish troops in recent weeks.

…In May, Turkey was angered when the three provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan were handed security control by the US-led multinational forces, and promptly raised the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraqi one.

…“You don’t need 100,000 [Turkish] troops to take their positions,” said a senior Iraqi Kurd politician. “What they’re clearly planning to do is to stage a major incursion and take control of the major land routes inside Iraqi Kurdistan leading up into the border mountains from the Iraqi side.”

…There is speculation in Kurdish circles that the Turks might also try to bomb or otherwise neutralize the two Iraqi Kurdish airports, at Irbil and Sulaymaniyah, which Ankara asserts have been allowing PKK fighters to gain refuge.

…“The Turks could wipe them out or bomb them as they have done in the past. What they are proposing is something larger than that. They are talking about a large-scale military incursion, which is getting people extremely, extremely nervous and worried. The concern of many people is that Turkish ambition may stretch beyond taking out the PKK…”

BBC NEWS ONLINE, 18 JANUARY 2008:

…Turkey has been threatening military action against the PKK ever since insurgents intensified their attacks on Turkish troops, putting the government here under immense public pressure to respond with force. Last month, the government authorized the military to carry out cross-border operations [into Iraq] against the PKK whenever necessary.

The air strikes on Sunday night were the first serious sign of that.

…Ankara says it has tacit approval from the U.S. for its operations, under an agreement reached in Washington last month by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President George W. Bush.

“I believe the USA supplied actionable intelligence, and the Turkish military took action,” Turkish foreign ministry spokesman Levent Bilman told the BBC…

“TURKISH TROOPS KILL 11 REBELS IN SOUTHEAST TURKEY NEAR BORDER WITH IRAQ—ASSOCIATED PRESS,” 12 MARCH 2007—ANKARA, TURKEY:

Turkish troops killed 11 Kurdish rebels during clashes in southeastern Turkey near the border with Iraq, a private news agency reported Wednesday. The fighting comes two weeks after Turkey’s eight-day incursion into northern Iraq to flush out the rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, who have been battling the Turkish government since 1984.

…Some Turkish nationalists fear that increasing cultural rights could lead to the breakup of the country along ethnic lines. They worry that Turkish Kurds could be encouraged by the U.S.-supported Kurdish region in northern Iraq, which has its own government and militia…

SECOND QUARTER 2008 FORECAST, © STRATFOR.COM, 4 APRIL 2008:

Regional trend: Turkey is emerging as a major regional power and in 2008 will begin to exert influence throughout its periphery—most notably in northern Iraq…

Turkey is feeling strong not only in northern Iraq, but also in the nearby Balkans and Caucasus, where it is seeking to mentor newly independent Kosovo and a newly oil-rich Azerbaijan…

“‘IRON MAN’ IS THE NEW FACE OF MILITARY CONTRACTORS,” JEREMY HSU, SPACE.COM, 6 MAY 2008:

When superhero Tony Stark isn’t donning his Iron Man armor to personally rough up villains, he’s pitching the U.S. military on new gadgets to fight the War on Terror.

…Private individuals and companies might not be as visible as UAVs soaring above the skies of Afghanistan and Iraq, yet their role has grown just as dramatically during the recent conflicts.

…No one questions that the United States could not fight a war now without outsourcing to military contractors…That means military contractors have also expanded beyond just selling military hardware. They now run supply lines, feed troops, build base camps, consult on strategy and even fight as private security forces…

“IRAN: U.S.–IRAQI DEAL WOULD ‘ENSLAVE’ IRAQIS—RAFSANJANI,” STRATFOR.COM, JUNE 4, 2008:

Iranian Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on June 4 said the Islamic world will try to stop a long-term security agreement between Iraq and the United States, saying the terms of the deal would “enslave” Iraqis, the Associated Press reported. Rafsanjani said the U.S.–Iraqi deal would lead to a permanent occupation of Iraq, and that such an occupation is dangerous for all states in the region…

THIRD QUARTER FORECAST, STRATFOR.COM, 8 JULY 2008:

…Regional trend: Turkey is emerging as a major regional power and in 2008 will begin to exert influence throughout its periphery—most notably in northern Iraq…Turkey is becoming bolder on the international stage: sending troops into northern Iraq, mediating Israeli-Syrian peace talks, pushing energy projects in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and making its influence felt in the Balkans…

“IRAQI PARLIAMENT CALLS SESSION ON KIRKUK,” ASSOCIATED PRESS, 30 JULY 2008:

…Tensions escalated Monday after a suicide bomb attack in Kirkuk during a Kurdish protest against the elections law killed 25 people and injured more than 180.

Kirkuk is home to Kurds, Turkomans, Arabs, and other minorities. After the explosion in Kirkuk, dozens of angry Kurds stormed the offices of a Turkoman political party that opposes Kurdish claims on Kirkuk, opening fire and burning cars amid accusations that their rivals were to blame. Nine Turkomen, or ethnic Turks, were reported wounded.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, which has been defending the rights of Turkomen, called Iraqi authorities to express concern over the incidents in Kirkuk and proposed to send a plane to bring the wounded to Turkey for treatment, the Iraqi president’s office said…

“TURKEY CONCERNED WITH CITY OF KIRKUK,” ASSOCIATED PRESS, 2 AUGUST 2008:

Baghdad—The Turkish government has expressed concern regarding the Iraqi city of Kirkuk, where ethnic Turks are locked in a territory dispute, an Iraqi official says.

An unidentified Iraqi foreign ministry spokesman said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had been contacted by Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babican regarding the situation in the city, the Kuwait News Agency KUNA reported Saturday.

The province of Kirkuk has demanded the city become part of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, while Turkey has steadfastly opposed such a movement.

While the city holds the largest concentration of ethnic Turks in Iraq, the spokesman said Zebari has maintained that any attempts to solve the dispute will be conducted solely by Iraq.

Zebari said any outside attempts to become involved in the dispute would not be welcomed by Iraq, the spokesman told KUNA.

“LASER GUN’S FIRST BLAST,” WIRED, DANGER ROOM, 13 AUGUST 2008:

Boeing announced today the first ever test firing of a real-life ray gun that could become U.S. Special Forces’ way to carry out covert strikes with “plausible deniability.”

In tests earlier this month at Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico, Boeing’s Advanced Tactical Laser—a modified C-130H aircraft—“fired its high-energy chemical laser through its beam control system. The beam control system acquired a ground target and guided the laser beam to the target, as directed by ATL’s battle management system…”

“RECORD NUMBER OF U.S. CONTRACTORS IN IRAQ,” CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, PETER GRIER, 18 AUGUST 2008:

Washington—The American military has depended on private contractors since sutlers sold paper, bacon, sugar, and other small luxuries to Continental Army troops during the Revolutionary War.

But the scale of the use of contractors in Iraq is unprecedented in US history, according to a new congressional report that may be the most thorough official account yet of the practice. As of early 2008, at least 190,000 private personnel were working on US-funded projects in the Iraq theater, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) survey found. That means that for each uniformed member of the US military in the region, there was also a contract employee—a ratio of 1 to 1.

…Critics of military outsourcing say the real problem is flexibility and command-and-control over private workers…

“ANKARA’S S-300 CURIOSITY,” STRATEGIC FORECASTING INC., 26 AUGUST 2008:

…Turkey is in the process of acquiring several variants of the Russian S-300 air defense system, Turkish daily Today’s Zaman reported August 25…

…Should Turkey succeed in this acquisition, Ankara’s subsequent work would take two important approaches. The first is reverse engineering, where key components are disassembled and their inner workings closely examined. The second is training in electronic warfare against actual systems…

“TURKISH ARMY SEEKS EXPANDED POWERS,” ASSOCIATED PRESS, ANKARA, TURKEY—10 OCTOBER 2008:

Turkey’s leaders met Thursday to discuss increasing the military’s powers to combat Kurdish rebels following a surge in attacks, some launched from rebel bases in northern Iraq.

Turkey’s parliament already voted Wednesday to extend the military’s mandate to carry out operations against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, including cross-border ground operations.

But the military has requested increased powers to fight rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. Thursday’s meeting was focused on extending the options available to the military and police…