Sea Strike

28

“We have identified a total of six firing batteries,” Lane Ashley reported. “Two missiles each, for a total of twelve rounds.”

“Are we certain that’s it?” President Childress inquired grimly.

“We think so, sir, at least as far as their IRBM force goes. The Nationalists seem to have deliberately let us have a look at them. They ran them out of their concealment points during one of our reconsat overpasses.”

“They wanted us to be able to verify that they actually have a nuclear-strike capacity,” Harrison Van Lynden added.

The secretary of state was attending this crisis-group meeting via a telecommunications channel, his image filling a flatscreen display on the inner wall.

The president massaged his temples. “All right. Let’s define this capacity a little further. Do we have any performance estimates on these things? Throw weight? Megatonnage?”

Sam Hanson nodded from his chair. “What we’re seeing here is a derivative of the Israeli-designed Shavit launch system. That, in turn, was a derivative of the Israeli Jericho II theater ballistic missile equipped with a second stage. Lift weight to orbit is about three hundred and fifty pounds. Suborbital is still going to be less than half a ton.

“Our nuclear-ordnance people at Sandia Base project a warhead in the Hiroshima range. Ten to twenty kilotons. Not what we would consider a strategic weapon, but drop one in on a city and you’d still make a pretty good mess out of the place.”

“Accuracy? Range?”

“In terms of accuracy, like I said, they are probably good for city busting. As for range, we think they can currently target just about any point within Red territory from Taiwan.”

“God damn.” President Childress slammed his palm down onto his desk. “God damn! Where in the hell do the Israelis think they can get off selling strategic-strike technology like this!”

“Sir, I’ve already had my people check into that,” Van Lynden replied. “Nationalists purchased two Shavit prototypes plus the production rights and design schematics for the system during your predecessor’s administration. State approved the sale, as did the United Nations inspectors. The Shavit is a recognized satellite launch vehicle and has been used as such by several third-world states.”

“Unfortunately, sir, this is a classic example of swing technology,” Lane Ashley added. “Just as an insecticide plant can be used to produce nerve gas, a satellite booster can be used to deliver an atomic weapon. It’s a fact we have to live with.”

“Damn, Lane, how did they get the assembly of this system past us?”

The NSA director shrugged her slim shoulders. “Ninety percent of the components were probably lifted stock off of the Nationalists’ booster production line. Likely they just listed them as being quality rejects.

“The launchers and launch vehicles were probably modularized and assembled right in the firing bunkers. Until they were rolled out, there wasn’t anything for our reconsats to spot. It’s the same kind of meticulous planning that we’ve been seeing from the Nationalists throughout this operation.”

Sam Hanson grunted an acknowledgment. “A year or two back, when they first started using the Shavit, the Taiwanese reported a couple of failed satellite launches with the booster. Those might have actually been ranging tests for this IRBM version.”

“Okay, then, they not only have the system, but they’ve proved it as well.” Childress rose from behind his desk and paced a few steps across the room’s dark-blue carpeting. Abruptly, he looked up and into the videophone monitor.

“Harry, is there any chance that this is going to make the Communists pull their horns in a little?”

Twelve thousand miles away, Van Lynden shook his head.

“It doesn’t look promising, sir. I’ve talked off the record with one of the senior members of the Red delegation. The indication that I got from him was that the Reds might very well prefer a nuclear exchange rather than to accept a total defeat.”

Sam Hanson cut in. “Sir, with the sailing of the Red boomer, I think we can take that as a given. They are planning to use the bomb. Within the next twenty-eight days, there is going to be a nuclear war.”

On the videophone, the secretary of state looked up sharply. “Twenty-eight days? Where does that come from?”

“Submerged duration, Harry,” Sam Hanson replied, slouching back in his chair and interlacing his fingers over his stomach. “Our Ohio-class boomers routinely deploy for sixty days and can stretch out to one-twenty, if necessary. A Russian Typhoon or Delta can do thirty with a stretch-out to forty-five. A Xia can stay out thirty days at the most, and it sortied two days ago.

“The Communist naval bases are all within strike range of Taiwan. The Reds have got to know that the Nationalists are bound to go after that sub with everything they’ve got the second they get a fix on it. That boomer is dead if it goes home again. They’re in a ‘use it or lose it’ scenario. You don’t need a computer to figure that one out.”

“We’re already seeing a major retasking of Taiwanese naval forces,” Lane Ashley added. “All of their submarines and the majority of their large surface units appear to be initiating antisubmarine operations within the East China Sea. The Nationalists are going after the Red missile boat with the bulk of their available ASW assets. And, Mr. President, it might solve a lot of problems if they find that submarine too.”

“Go on,” Childress said.

“We have run model analyses of several different potential scenarios for a Red Chinese nuclear first strike. In every instance, the warheads aboard that Xia SSBN have been the key to an effective strike. Eliminate them, and the scenarios fall apart.”

“The Communists have other nuclear arms, Lane,” Van Lynden commented from the telescreen.

“Yes, Harry, they do. But not many, and they can’t be sure of their delivery systems. The Nationalists have air superiority over their held territory. It’s questionable if the Reds could get airdropped bombs through to any critical targets.

“The Nationalists are also fielding both the Patriot and the Arrow battlefield antimissile systems. That could limit the effectiveness of any strikes launched by the Reds using their short-range, Scud-type artillery rockets.

“Those sea-launched IRBMs with their big one-megaton warheads are absolutely critical for any successful strike template that the Communists might develop against the Nationalists. Without them, the Reds would come way out on the losing side of any exchange. It would be the equivalent of their committing nuclear suicide.”

“That course of action can’t be discounted, Lane,” the secretary of state said dryly.

“Maybe not, Harry,” Ben Childress commented slowly, “But, no matter what, with those city-busters eliminated from the equation, the Reds would be taking a whole lot fewer people with them.”

The group of advisers looked on as the president deliberately removed his glasses and polished each lens in turn. He redonned them after a full minute and looked over at his National Security Adviser. “Sam, get on the line to the Chief of Naval Operations. Have him start tasking for a large-scale antisubmarine operation in the western Pacific If we commit, this will-be live fire. Search and destroy.”

“Yes, sir.”

“At this time, authorization will be under the Presidential War Powers Act over my signature alone. I want this maintained as a black operation at this time. Full security. No public release or acknowledgment. We cannot afford to let the Reds know what we are considering.”

“Or the press, for that matter,” Hanson grunted. “That would amount to the same thing.”

The president glanced at the NSA director. “Ms. Ashley, as of this moment, the United States has no intelligence priority higher than the hunt for this ballistic-missile submarine! I want this boat found!”

“Understood, Mr. President.”

Childress then turned toward the wall flatscreen. “Harry, I’ll need two things from you before we can consider committing to further action, one being the assurance that we have exhausted all valid diplomatic options in this situation. The other is the consensus of the other Pacific Rim powers and a commitment of support from them.”

The secretary of state nodded thoughtfully. “I believe that I can come across with both of those, sir. In fact, I know a way that the first can provide us with the second.”