Shadow Command

STRATFOR MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF, 18 JANUARY 2007–1216 GMT — CHINA, UNITED STATES

— U.S. intelligence agencies believe China destroyed the aging Feng Yun 1C polar orbit weather satellite in a successful anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons test Jan. 11, China Daily reported Jan. 18, citing an article to appear in the Jan. 22 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology. U.S. intelligence agencies are still attempting to verify the ASAT test, which would signify that China has a major new military capability…

…The new cloud of debris orbiting the Earth is an indication of things to come should two space-faring nations face off in a conflict. Especially in the case of the United States, space-based assets have become too essential an operational tool to be ignored any longer in times of war.

STRATFOR DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY, 3 APRIL 2007—U.S./IRAN:

U.S. attacks against Iran would not lead to a decisive military defeat of Tehran and would be a political mistake, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky said. He added that it is possible for the United States to damage Iran’s military, but not to win a conflict outright.

STRATFOR INTELLIGENCE BRIEF, 7 SEPTEMBER 2007

— Cooperation between the Russian Federal Security Service and Iran’s Interior Ministry will enhance Iran’s border security, First Deputy Director-General of Russian Federal Security and Border Services Viktor Shlyakhtin said, according to an IRNA report. Shlyakhtin is in Iran to inspect Iranian-Russian projects in areas of Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province that border Afghanistan and Pakistan.

RED OCTOBER: RUSSIA, IRAN, AND IRAQ

— STRATFOR

Geopolitical Intelligence Report, 17 September 2007—Copyright © Strategic Forecasting Inc.

— …The Americans need the Russians not to provide fighter aircraft, modern command-and-control systems, or any of the other war-making systems that the Russians have been developing. Above all else, they want the Russians not to provide the Iranians any nuclear-linked technology.

Therefore, it is no accident that the Iranians claimed over the weekend that the Russians told them they would do precisely that.

…[Russian president Vladimir] Putin can align with the Iranians and place the United States in a far more complex situation than it otherwise would be in. He could achieve this by supporting Syria, arming militias in Lebanon, or even causing significant problems in Afghanistan, where Russia retains a degree of influence in the North…

STRATFOR INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY, 25 OCTOBER 2007, © STRATFOR INC.

— During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Oct. 16 visit to Tehran, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asked him to order Russian experts to help Iran figure out how Israel jammed Syrian radars prior to the Sept. 6 air raid, a Stratfor source in Hezbollah said. Iran wants to rectify the problem associated with the failure of Syrian radars because Iran uses similar equipment, the source added.

RUSSIA, IRAN: THE NEXT STEP IN THE DIPLOMATIC TANGO

— STRATFOR

Global Intelligence Brief, 30 October 2007, © 2007 Stratfor, Inc. — …Russia has a fine-tuned strategy of exploiting its Middle Eastern allies’ interests for its own political purposes. Iran is the perfect candidate. It is a powerful Islamic state that is locked into a showdown with the United States over its nuclear program and Iraq. Though Washington and Tehran are constantly battling in the public sphere with war rhetoric, they need to deal with each other for the sake of their strategic interests.

Russia, meanwhile, has its own turf war with the United States that involves a range of hot issues, including National Missile Defense, renegotiating Cold War — era treaties, and Western interference in Russia’s periphery. By demonstrating that Moscow has some real sway over the Iranians, Russia gains a useful bargaining chip to use in its dealings with the United States…

ALTAY OPTICAL–LASER SOURCEBOOK, 28 December 2007

— The Scientific Research Institute of Precision Instrument Engineering [of the Russian Federation] has established a branch satellite tracking facility called the Altay Optical-Laser Center (AOLS) near the small Siberian town of Savvushka. The center consists of two sites, one of which is now operational and the other of which is intended to go into operation in or after 2010.

The present site has a laser rangefinder for precision orbit determination, and, for the first time in Russia, a telescope (60 cm aperture) there has been equipped with an adaptive optics system for high-resolution imaging of satellites. The second site will be equipped with a 3.12-meter satellite-imaging telescope generally similar to the one the United States operates in Hawaii.

…Successful implementation of the AOLS 3.12-meter system would allow satellites to be imaged with a resolution of 25 cm [9.8 inches] or better out to a range of 1,000 km [621 miles].