The Bin Laden Plot

59 WASHINGTON, D.C.

The desired cast of participants for this afternoon’s meeting had been hastily assembled, with Christine about to begin her brief in the Situation Room in the West Wing. The president and Christine were joined by Secretary of Defense Tom Glass, Secretary of the Navy Brenda Verbeck, Secretary of State Marcy Perini, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Joe Sites, Captain Glen McGlothin — the president’s senior military advisor — plus Thom Parham, the president’s national security advisor. The first slide of Christine’s presentation was displayed on the video screen on the wall opposite the president, and he signaled for Christine to begin.

The first few slides briefed the participants on the basic issue: over one hundred advanced gas centrifuges had been sold by Snyder Industries to Iran, in violation of U.S. sanctions against the country. The centrifuges were currently in transit, scheduled to arrive in an Iranian port in fourteen hours. Verbeck hadn’t been pre-briefed on the details, and when Christine revealed that the centrifuges had been linked to Snyder Industries, Verbeck’s face paled.

Christine didn’t delve into the issue of Secretary Verbeck’s relationship with the CEO of Snyder Industries; it was far too sensitive of an issue to discuss in the present forum. Plus, the SecNav-UUV-gas-centrifuge investigation was incomplete. There was no direct link yet between Verbeck and the gas centrifuges, although her relationship with Dan Snyder, the suspicious deaths of her military aide and senior Pentagon supervisor, and the fabricated UUV stories she had told to Murray Wilson were highly suspect. Whether she was an innocent pawn, master puppeteer, or something in between had not yet become clear.

After the problem was articulated, the brief shifted to the U.S. response: Should action be taken, and if so — what and when? It quickly became clear that those around the table held the same opinion as Christine and her agency colleagues: they could not allow Iran to take custody of the gas centrifuges. The topic then turned to the options available, with intervention while the centrifuges were still aboard the merchant being the preferred alternative, to avoid a sensitive military attack or clandestine operation on Iranian soil. Once an attack at sea had been settled upon, Secretary of Defense Tom Glass took the lead.

Satellite imagery of the Persian Gulf appeared on the Situation Room display, with the image zooming in to the merchant in question, Vayenga Maersk, being escorted by four Russian frigates. In addition, a red symbol appeared ahead of the five-ship convoy, in the shape indicating a submerged contact.

“In addition to the four Russian surface combatants, the merchant is being escorted by a Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine. Its exact location is currently unknown, but we do know it’s in the Persian Gulf. It was detected by our SOSUS arrays on the ocean floor, passing through the Strait of Hormuz a few miles ahead of Vayenga Maersk and the four Russian surface warships.

“As far as military options go, they boil down to an attack by aircraft, surface warships, or submarines. We have sufficient assets of all three to implement any of these options. However, air and surface attack carry a higher risk of bringing Russia into this conflict, which we’d like to avoid. A missile attack against the merchant, from either aircraft or surface ships, would provoke an immediate response from the Russian surface combatants, since they won’t be able to tell which ship has been targeted. Plus, there’s always the possibility that one or more of our missiles could lock on to the wrong ship. A submerged attack, on the other hand, offers the opportunity for a more surgical strike, launching a surprise attack at a much closer range and with a higher probability of avoiding collateral damage to the Russian escorts.”

Glass turned to Secretary of the Navy Brenda Verbeck, who continued where Glass left off.

“We have two submarines in the Persian Gulf: Jimmy Carter and Michigan, and both can reposition in time to sink the merchant before it reaches port. The plan would be to employ both submarines in tandem, with one used to distract the Russian submarine while the other moves in for the attack.”

Verbeck looked to the Chief of Naval Operations, who provided additional details.

“There’s still the risk of collateral damage to the Russian ships; our torpedo could lock on to the wrong contact, or we might have to sink the Russian submarine if it engages. But overall, an attack using submarines offers the highest probability of sinking the merchant without damaging any of the Russian warships.”

“Seems like a solid plan,” the president said, “if everything goes well. What are the cons? What’s the worst-case scenario?”

Sites replied, “It could be disastrous. We could accidentally sink one or more Russian warships, they could sink one or both of our submarines, or both sides could take losses. And in the end, the merchant might escape and make it to port.”

The president went around the table, soliciting input from everyone in attendance, then made his decision.

“Let’s go with the attack by Jimmy Carter and Michigan. Plus, I’d like a backup plan in case the merchant makes it to port.”

Sites replied, “We’ll get orders sent to our submarines right away.”

After the meeting ended, Christine got the president’s attention. “I’d like to get on your calendar today or tomorrow to update you on some of the issues we’ve recently discussed. Do you have any availability?”

“Tomorrow at three, or this evening if it’s critical,” he replied.

“I’ll set something up with your secretary.”

Christine’s conversation with the president didn’t go unnoticed. Brenda Verbeck’s eyes followed Christine until she left the conference room.