The Gotland Deception

Chapter Ten: Don’t Cause a Panic

The secure conference room on the second floor of the headquarters building was steeped in history, having served the American Army since 1945 and the German Army dating back to 1936. Sitting at the polished mahogany table brought back memories of Jim Batista’s time in uniform, before his retirement, back when he had been a warrant officer. He set his ceramic mug down on the table. The bitter liquid had done little to cut through the jet lag gnawing at his bones. Outside the windowless room, a light snow dusted the Swabian hills surrounding Vaihingen, a suburb of Stuttgart where US European Command was headquartered. Inside the room, it was anything but cold as the temperature rose with the pressure of events.

“Gentlemen, let’s dispense with the pleasantries,” Batista said, his Utah accent sharpening each word. “We have a Chinese spy ship burned to the waterline off Gotland, eleven dead, and NATO ports cataloged like a targeting package. All this while Moscow and Beijing prep for the largest military exercise since the 1984 REFORGER. I’m a student of history, so tell me how we’re not looking at 2022 all over again.”

General Nathaniel Calder, dual-hatted as both EUCOM Commander and SACEUR, leaned forward in his chair. The Spartan coin he habitually carried clicked against the table as he set it down. At fifty-eight, Calder still looked like he could run a 5K before breakfast — and often did, much to his staff’s exhaustion.

“Jim, the parallels aren’t lost on any of us,” Calder said, his Colorado drawl carrying the weight of command. “But there’s a difference between preparation and provocation. We start flooding the Baltics with armor, we might just give Goryunov the excuse he’s looking for.”

Secretary of Defense T. J. Varnell shifted in his seat, his fingers drumming a pattern on his tablet. The former tech magnate turned Pentagon chief might have traded the casual look of Silicon Valley for tailored suits, but his mind still worked in algorithms and decision trees.

“With respect, General, when has restraint ever deterred Russian aggression?” Varnell’s California-neutral accent carried an edge. “Georgia, Crimea, Donbas — each time we showed restraint, they took it as weakness.”

Lieutenant General Mark “Bear” Sheridan, Deputy EUCOM Commander, rubbed the bear claw pendant in his hand like a fidget — a nervous tic his staff knew meant he was deep in thought. The Alaskan’s massive frame dwarfed his chair, making him appear even larger than he was.

“The Swedes are spooked,” Sheridan said, his voice rumbling like distant thunder. “Can’t say I blame them. That Chinese ship was mapping their infrastructure like they were planning an invasion. Hell, they had thermite grenades. That’s not intelligence gathering, that’s sabotage prep in case they got caught.”

Batista nodded. “Yeah, which brings us to the elephant in the room. Prime Minister Lindqvist reached out through back channels. She wants to know when we can have NATO forces on Gotland to help shore up their defenses ahead of this May exercise.”

The room fell silent for a moment as they thought about the request. The Swedish military maintained a small contingent of forces on the island but had never offered to host NATO forces behind the occasional exercise. The island was effectively an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic Sea, a prize Russia would love to capture should hostilities break out between NATO and the Eurasian Defense and Economic Pact.

Major General William “Duke” Morrison, the SOCEUR Commander, stopped spinning his wedding ring — a sure sign the special operations chief was now fully engaged. The former Delta operator’s scarred hands told stories his classified record couldn’t. “It should go without saying, Gotland’s the key to the Baltic,” Morrison said, his Arkansas drawl slow and measured. “It was a prime target during the Cold War and it’s a prime target now. If the Swedes are willing to allow us to station assets there, we should take them up on the offer. With a proper A2/D2 setup, we could bottle up the Baltic and provide an aerial umbrella of protection that would extend over Kaliningrad, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway. It also gives us a safe position to fire extended-range rocket artillery over those countries and the likely avenues of attack into NATO territory should the ChiComs and Russians decide to get froggy.”

Calder picked up his Spartan coin, rolling it between his fingers. “You’re the strategist, Jim. What are you thinking? What’s the President’s temperature on this?”

Batista leaned back, studying the faces around the table. These were warriors, not politicians. They understood the knife’s edge they walked. “President Ashford has preauthorized the forward deployment of the 1st Armor and 3rd Infantry Divisions if needed,” Batista announced, watching their reactions. “He’s taking this seriously, as am I. The question is, what do we put on Gotland that provides deterrence without escalation?”

“I think Duke already suggested it,” replied the SecDef. His fingers tapped on his tablet, pulling up force deployment options. “I’ve been war-gaming this since the Baltic incident and I think I might have something that could work. We could deploy the First Battalion, 59th Air Defense Artillery. They could provide an umbrella over the entire region. Patriot batteries for the high-altitude threats, HIMARS for precision fires. Leonidas-IIIs for counterdrone. It gives us a mobile, lethal, defensive, and offensive option should we need it.”

“Smart,” Calder said, setting his coin down with a decisive click. “But they’ll need security. Can’t have another Khobar Towers on our hands.”

“Second Battalion, 503rd Infantry from my 173rd,” Morrison suggested. “Paratroopers. Light, fast, and used to working with European partners. One company on Gotland, the rest of the battalion stages from Riga.”

Sheridan pulled up a map on the wall display, his thick fingers surprisingly delicate on the touchscreen. “Creates a triangle — Gotland, Riga, Helsinki. Any Russian move gets caught in a crossfire.”

“And if this exercise turns hot?” Batista pressed. “Like Ukraine in 2022?” The room fell silent again. They all remembered how quickly “exercises” had become invasions.

Calder stood, moving to the map. Despite his lean frame, he dominated the room. “Then we implement Joint Task Force Sentinel. Full anti-access, area-denial umbrella from the Danish Straits to the Gulf of Finland.”

He traced the coverage area with his finger. “Patriot batteries here, here, and here. HIMARS positioned to cover the Suwałki Gap and the Estonian border. Navy assets surge forward from the North Sea.”

“I can have 1-59 ADA moving within seventy-two hours,” Varnell said, already composing deployment orders in his head. “The 173rd can follow within a week.”

“What about the Europeans?” Morrison asked. “Can’t do this unilaterally.”

Batista nodded. “That’s my next stop. Mons, then Stockholm. I’ll get Stubb on board.”

Alexander Stubb, NATO’s Secretary-General, was a pragmatist who understood the delicate balance between alliance cohesion and decisive action. The Finnish politician had learned hard lessons about Russian intentions.

“The Germans will balk,” Sheridan warned. “They always do when it comes to antagonizing Moscow.”

“Let me worry about Berlin,” Batista said. “Right now, I need to know we can execute if given the green light.”

Calder moved back to his seat, picking up his coin again. “Jim, I can have TF Sentinel operational within three weeks. But I want more than just the 173rd. If this goes sideways, I need heavy metal close at hand and additional airpower to counter the increase in PLA Air Force units arriving in the region.”

“First Armor’s at Fort Bliss, ready to roll,” Varnell confirmed. “Third Infantry at Stewart. We could have a full armored corps in Europe within a month. I can schedule two F-22 squadrons from the 325th Operations Group out of Tyndall, a pair of F-15EXs from the 4th Operations Group from Seymour Johnson, and the 4th Fighter Squadron’s F-35As from Hill. That beefs your airpower up by five squadrons of stealth fighters and frontline aircraft.”

“Do it, quietly,” Batista said. “We’ll call it a readiness exercise. How about EuroShield-33, or whatever you think is best? But I want options.”

Morrison leaned forward. “My teams have been tracking Russian Spetsnaz activity in the Baltics. Unusual patterns. Tourist visas that don’t match tourist behavior. We might already have infiltrators in place.”

“All the more reason to move fast,” Calder said. He looked around the table, meeting each man’s eyes. “Gentlemen, we’re walking a tightrope. Too little response, and we’re inviting aggression. Too much, and we might trigger exactly what we’re trying to prevent.”

Batista stood, signaling the meeting’s end. “Then we’d better have perfect balance. General Calder, I want TF Sentinel’s deployment plan on my desk by tomorrow. Duke, get your snake eaters ready — I have a feeling we’re going to need them. T. J., start working the logistics. If we’re doing this, we’re doing it right.”

As the others filed out, Calder lingered. The two men stood by the window, watching the snow fall on the headquarters of America’s European shield.

“Jim, you know what this looks like, right?” Calder said quietly. “Forward-deploying air-defense and precision fires? That’s not just deterrence. That’s preparation for a fight.”

Batista nodded slowly. “I know, Nate. Question is, do they?”

“The Russians? They wrote the playbook we’re reading from.” Calder pocketed his coin. “Maskirovka. Deception. Exercises that aren’t exercises. We’re just playing by their rules now.”

“Then let’s make sure we play to win,” Batista said.

Batista sat alone in the darkened SVTC room, the glow from multiple screens casting harsh shadows across his weathered face. The secure link to Washington had just connected, and President Lawson Ashford’s imposing six-foot-four frame filled the primary display. Even through the encrypted connection, Batista could see the strain in the President’s tired eyes. All of Ashford’s years in the military, working in agricultural logistics, and his time as the governor of Kansas hadn’t aged him nearly as much as his time in the presidency. His once chestnut-brown hair had grayed considerably. Batista wondered if he’d lost more weight with a bit of concern, since Ashford was already quite lean.

“Jim, I’ve read your initial assessment,” Ashford said, his Kansas drawl more pronounced than usual, a tell that he was deeply concerned. “Bottom-line it for me. Are we looking at another Ukraine?”

Batista had served in uniform under four presidents, but Ashford was different. The former governor and visionary who’d led the creation of the Grain Consortium understood logistics and supply chains better than most generals. He grasped that modern warfare was as much about industrial capacity as battlefield prowess. It was why he had supercharged the Pentagon’s Replicator program and accelerated the implementation of autonomous weapon platforms across the services. They were doing more with less, with greater capability than ever before.

“I’m not sure I’m ready to say that yet, but the parallels are concerning, Mr. President,” Batista said, choosing his words carefully. “The way I see it, Mr. President, is we have two problems we’re facing and no good solutions for how to deal with them. The first problem is the US and NATO and our continued challenge with Russia. The second problem is China. Their involvement changes the calculus entirely.”

“Oh, how so?”

“Eh, people may differ on what led to the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War, but ultimately, that war was about territorial expansion. The Russians were trying to create a buffer zone along the Dnipro River, Sea of Azov, and the Black Sea. It’s a shame that poor leadership on the part of Europe and the US led to the war beginning in the first place and its eventual outcome. What we have to do now, Mr. President, is make abundantly clear to Russia and the Chinese our spheres of influence are better served through trade and economic activity than through force of arms,” Batista explained.

“The thing is, Mr. President, this somehow feels bigger. Like this is part of a greater, more strategic plan in play. This incident around Gotland, in my mind, is a bigger deal than our Swedish and European allies may be willing to accept. It feels coordinated, the Russian and Chinese Navies working in tandem toward a common goal.” Batista paused, looking off camera for a moment, searching for the right words. “I know the emphasis of your next term, Mr. President, is meant to be on how we can find a way to bridge these geopolitical, economic, and social divides between the Western-led democracies and what’s transformed into this Eurasian Defense Economic Pact, EDEP. But we might have to face the reality that, despite our desire to achieve some sort of normal coexistence between our sides — as worthy a goal and as noble a gesture as yours and Europe’s is — we don’t have a willing partner opposite us that sees it the same way.”

Ashford nodded slowly, leaning back in his chair and looking up toward the ceiling, collecting his thoughts and weighing what to say in response. The 2020s had been a rough decade for the West, from COVID lockdowns to unheard-of levels of digital censorship to the brutal, barbaric war in Ukraine and the Middle East. People were looking for calm, for stability and for economic security at home.

The country was just starting to recover from the economic impact of running a $40 trillion deficit. Ashford’s push during his first term to create the Grain Consortium or GC, a cartel of like-minded nations that rewarded farmers for producing ever-growing quantities of food for the government to buy and then sell at guaranteed prices and quantities, had reduced global famine and food shortages by half in just the first couple of years. It had also brought in enormous tax revenues for the government as it sought to begin the process of paying down the deficit. But it was his radical approach to restructuring how entitlement programs were funded that had really ended deficit spending and shored up the programs for future generations, even increasing benefit payments at the same time.

“Jim, as always, I appreciate your pragmatism and ability to see the world as it is, not how us politicians wish it was,” Ashford began, weighing his words carefully. “When the voters saw fit to give me a second term, they did so because they wanted their elected leaders in Washington to address the problems here at home. Not nation building abroad or attempting to be the global cop, the country always sticking its nose into the affairs of others. That said, if Goryunov and Ouyang believe me to be weak, or think that we will sit idly by while they redraw the borders of nations in a way that suits them, they have another thing coming.

“Next month, the GC is meeting in New Delhi to discuss ways to further increase rice production. Separately, they are hosting a trade delegation with representatives from EDEP. They’re looking to establish a long-term deal for the bloc, as opposed to their individual members negotiating deals on their own. How do you think Moscow or Beijing might react if we looked to use these negotiations as leverage to de-escalate things before this May exercise begins?” Ashford asked.

Batista hated the principle of the idea, as it would punish the citizens rather than the leaders it was meant to influence. “I’m hesitant to use something like food over a country, especially one we’re not at war with. If that’s the route you’d like to go, Mr. President, then perhaps we should dangle a better deal for them than they otherwise might get, but we make the deal contingent upon them scaling back the size and scope of this exercise. And we make it abundantly clear — should they decide to turn this exercise into something more, all deals are off. If Russia or China start a war, it’ll negatively impact all the members of EDEP, not just belligerents. I think we could use this to help shape the kind of peaceful outcome we want to see,” Batista replied.

“Jim, are we too late? Should we have pushed this leverage a year ago when the GC officially came into being?” quizzed Ashford, a hesitant look on his face, like he had made a mistake and was only just now realizing it.

Batista shrugged. “That’s hard to say, Mr. President. All I know is since we got that report from South Korean intelligence, DragonBear — I’m just not sure. All signs point to this exercise being cover for something bigger. It seems to me the Russians are preparing to secure the Baltic States and create that long-sought-after land bridge to Kaliningrad, like they did in Ukraine with Crimea.”

Ashford nodded, then sat forward as he asked, “And this Gotland force, Joint Task Force Sentinel — you think this will deter them, along with those other deployments T. J.’s recommending?”

“I think so. It’s a credible deterrent,” Batista replied. “Air-defense umbrella, precision fires, just enough ground forces to secure our assets. It’s small enough not to provoke, large enough to complicate their planning if they wanted to try and seize the island.”

“Walk me through the timeline.”

Batista pulled up a deployment schedule on his tablet. “1-59 ADA begins movement in three weeks. Equipment follows by sea and air. Initial operational capability on Gotland by March fifteenth. Full TF Sentinel operational by April first.”

“That’s fast.”

“Has to be. The EDEP exercise kicks off May first. If they’re planning something, that’s their window.”

The President was quiet for a moment, his weathered hands folding and unfolding on his desk. “Jim, I grew up watching wheat futures. You learn to read patterns, spot the signs before the storm hits. What’s your gut telling you?”

Batista considered the question. In thirty years of service, his instincts had saved more lives than any intelligence report. “My gut says this is different, sir. Bigger. The resource allocation, the timing, the coordination between Russia and China — it’s unprecedented. They’re not just testing their readiness capabilities like they claim. They’re preparing for something.”

“Then we’d better be prepared too,” Ashford said. “You have my authorization for TF Sentinel. But, Jim—”

“Sir?”

“Keep it quiet. Last thing we need is the New York Times running ‘US Prepares for World War Three’ headlines. That helps nobody.”

“Understood, Mr. President.”

“And, Jim? That armor you mentioned, the 1st Armor and 3rd Infantry Division? Start the movements. Call it a training rotation. But I want them ready to roll into battle if this goes south.”

“Agreed. I’ll get it in motion, sir.”

The President nodded, then leaned forward. “One more thing. What’s your take on Gotland? Can the Swedes hold it if push comes to shove?”

Batista thought of the map, the narrow straits, the strategic position. “With our help? Yeah, not a problem. Without it? Not a chance in hell if the Chinese are involved.”

“Fair enough. Then make sure that doesn’t happen. Whatever it takes,” the President directed, then cut the feed.

Batista was left alone with his thoughts and the weight of what was coming. Outside, the snow continued to fall on Vaihingen, each flake adding to the blanket of white covering the base. Soon, he thought, they’d know if this was just another exercise or the prelude to something worse.

He stood, gathering his materials. Mons awaited, then Stockholm. Allies to reassure, defenses to coordinate, and always, always, the ticking clock counting down to May.

As he left the conference room, Batista couldn’t shake the feeling that they were already playing catch-up in a game whose rules they didn’t fully understand. The question wasn’t whether the storm was coming — it was whether they’d be ready when it hit.