Vice President James Sandecker sat in a crowded conference room in the Italian parliament building in the center of Rome. Several advisers were with him, including Terry Carruthers. Scattered across the room were similar groups from every country in Europe.
The session was supposed to be devoted to developing a new trade pact, but it had been hijacked by events in Libya, Tunisia and Algeria.
In a stunning twelve-hour period, both the Tunisian and Algerian governments had fallen apart. New coalitions were forming and power seemed to have shifted back to the groups that had once run things. The fact that this happened against a backdrop of growing violence and water shortages was not shocking, but the fact that each government had been expected to survive until the sudden defection by dozens of key ministers and supporters was.
The Algerian collapse was particularly surprising, since it began with the Prime Minister stepping down and citing traitors throughout the government.
“Someone’s stirring the pot,” Sandecker said to Carruthers.
“I read the CIA’s North African assessment yesterday,” Carruthers replied. “None of this was expected.”
Sandecker replied, “The men and women at the Agency do a good job most of the time, but they also see ghosts where there aren’t any and sometimes mistake elephants in the room for part of the decor.”
“How bad is this?” Carruthers asked.
“Algeria and Tunisia are problems, but Libya’s worse and it’s hanging by a thread.”
“Is that why the Italians are making an argument calling for change in Libya?”
It was a good question. With Libya on the brink of civil war, a strange proposal had cropped up, championed by Italian lawmaker Alberto Piola, who was a powerful member of the ruling party though not Prime Minister. Piola was leading the trade delegation, but instead of talking business, he was seeking support among the conference attendees for action in Libya.
“We must urge the Libyan government to step down,” he insisted. “Before it falls apart.”
“How will that help?” the Canadian ambassador asked.
“We can support a new regime that will come to power with the people’s backing,” Piola said.
“And how’s that going to solve the water crisis?” the German Vice Chancellor wanted to know.
“It will prevent bloodshed,” Piola replied.
“And what about Algeria?” the French representative asked.
“There will be new elections in Algeria,” Piola said. “And in Tunisia. New governments in those countries will decide what to do and how to address the water problem. But Libya is more likely to become a flashpoint.”
For the most part, Sandecker sat quietly. He was surprised by Piola’s unrelenting focus on the Libyan problem, especially since Italy was still reeling from the events in Lampedusa. As his own experience at NUMA and in the administration had taught him, one crisis at a time was more than enough.
Eventually, Carruthers leaned over and spoke quietly into Sandecker’s ear. “What he’s asking for can never happen. Even if everybody in this room agreed, we’d still have to go back to our own countries and convince our leaders to enact what he suggested.”
Sandecker nodded discreetly. “Alberto’s been around the block a time or two. He knows that as well as any of us.”
“So why bother?”
Sandecker had been trying to guess what Piola’s game was all morning. He offered what he thought was the most likely conclusion. “He’s not dumb enough to ask for a vote on something that isn’t going to happen. He’s laying the groundwork and setting the stage for acceptance of something that already has happened.”
Carruthers pulled back, looking at the Vice President oddly. Then he seemed to understand. “You mean…?”
“The Libyan government is a dead man walking,” Sandecker said. “And from the way he’s acting, Alberto Piola seems to have been expecting it.”
Carruthers nodded again. And then he took the initiative, a step that Sandecker was proud of. “I’ll contact the CIA and find out what they know about the elephant in this room.”
Sandecker grinned. “Good idea.”