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1

Frank L. Schmidt and John Hunter, «General Mental Ability in the World of Work: Occupational Attainment and Job Performance», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 86 (2004): 162–173.

2

David C. Geary, «Efficiency of Mitochondrial Functioning as the Fundamental Biological Mechanism of General Intelligence (G)», Psychological Review 15 (2018): 1028–1050.

3

Neel Burton, «What Is Intelligence?», Psychology Today, November 28, 2018, www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hide-and-seek/201811/what-is-intelligence; Charles Stangor and Jennifer Walinga, Introduction to Psychology (Victoria, BC: BCcampus, 2014); Frank L. Schmidt, «The Role of Cognitive Ability and Job Performance: Why There Cannot Be a Debate», Human Performance 15 (2002): 187–210.

4

A Systematic Approach to the GRE (New York: Kaplan, 1999).

5

Ludy T. Benjamin Jr., Timothy A. Cavell, and William R. Shallenberger III, «Staying with Initial Answers on Objective Tests: Is It a Myth?», Teaching of Psychology 11 (1984): 133–141.

6

Justin Kruger, Derrick Wirtz, and Dale T. Miller, «Counterfactual Thinking and the First Instinct Fallacy», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88 (2005): 725–735.

7

Yongnam Kim, «Apples to Oranges: Causal Effects of Answer Changing in Multiple-Choice Exams», arXiv:1808.10577v4, last revised October 14, 2019, arxiv.org/abs/1808.10577.

8

Justin J. Couchman et al., «The Instinct Fallacy: The Metacognition of Answering and Revising during College Exams», Metacognition and Learning 11 (2016): 171–185.

9

Charles M. Slem, «The Effects of an Educational Intervention on Answer Changing Behavior», Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association, August 1985, eric.ed.gov/?id=ED266395.

10

Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition: From Brains to Culture, 2nd ed. (Los Angeles: Sage, 2013).

11

Arie W. Kruglanski and Donna M. Webster, «Motivated Closing of the Mind: ‘Seizing’ and ‘Freezing’», Psychological Review 103 (1996): 263–283.

12

James Fallows, «The Boiled-Frog Myth: Stop the Lying Now!», The Atlantic, September 16, 2006, www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2006/09/the-boiled-frog-myth-stop-the-lying-now/7446/.

13

Norman Maclean, Young Men and Fire, 25th anniversary ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017); см. также www.nifc.gov/safety/mann_gulch/event_timeline/event6.htm.

14

Barry M. Staw, Lance E. Sandelands, and Jane E. Dutton, «Threat Rigidity Effects in Organizational Behavior: A Multilevel Analysis», Administrative Science Quarterly 26 (1981): 501–524; Karl E. Weick, «The Collapse of SenseMaking in Organizations: The Mann Gulch Disaster», Administrative Science Quarterly 38 (1993): 628–52.

15

Ted Putnam, «Findings from the Wildland Firefighters Human Factors Workshop», United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Technology & Development Program, November 1995.

16

John N. Maclean, Fire on the Mountain: The True Story of the South Canyon Fire (New York: HarperPerennial, 2009).

17

Ted Putnam, «Analysis of Escape Efforts and Personal Protective Equipment on the South Canyon Fire», Wildfire 4 (1995): 34–39.

18

Ted Putnam, «The Collapse of Decision Making and Organizational Structure on Storm King Mountain», Wildfire 4 (1995): 40–45.

19

Report of the South Canyon Fire Accident Investigation Team, August 17, 1994.

20

Karl E. Weick, «Drop Your Tools: An Allegory for Organizational Studies», Administrative Science Quarterly 41 (1996): 301–13.

21

Elizabeth Widdicombe, «Prefrosh E-group Connected Class of ’03», Harvard Crimson, June 5, 2003, www.thecrimson.com/article/2003/6/5/prefrosh-e-group-connected-class-of-03; Scott A. Golder, «Re: ‘Alone in Annenberg? First-Years Take Heart’», Harvard Crimson, September 17, 1999, www.thecrimson.com/article/1999/9/17/letters-begroup-an-important-link-connecting.

22

Black Lives Matter: Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy, «How Public Opinion Has Moved on Black Lives Matter», New York Times, June 10, 2020, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/upshot/black-lives-matter-attitudes.html.

23

Kathryn Schulz, «The Story That Tore Through the Trees», New York Magazine, September 9, 2014, nymag.com/arts/books/features/mann-gulch-norman-maclean-2014-9/index.html.

24

George Bernard Shaw, Everybody’s Political What’s What? (London: Constable, 1944).

25

Jacquie McNish and Sean Silcoff, Losing the Signal: The Untold Story behind the Extraordinary Rise and Spectacular Fall of BlackBerry (New York: Flatiron Books, 2015).

26

«100 Fastest-Growing Companies», CNN Money, August 31, 2009, money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortunefastestgrowing/2009/snapshots/1.html.

27

Richard Alleyne, «Welcome to the Information Age–174 Newspapers a Day», Daily Telegraph, February 11, 2011, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/8316534/Welcome-to-the-information-age-174-newspapers-a-day.html.

28

Peter Densen, «Challenges and Opportunities Facing Medical Education», Transactions of the American Clinical and Climatological Association 122 (2011): 48–58.

29

Joshua J. Clarkson, Zakary L. Tormala, and Christopher Leone, «A Self-Validation Perspective on the Mere Thought Effect», Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 47 (2011): 449–54.

30

Jamie Barden and Richard E. Petty, «The Mere Perception of Elaboration Creates Attitude Certainty: Exploring the Thoughtfulness Heuristic», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 95 (2008): 489–509.

31

W. Ralph Eubanks, «How History and Hollywood Got ‘Cleopatra’ Wrong», NPR, November 1, 2010, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130976125.

32

Jason Farago, «T. Rex Like You Haven’t Seen Him: With Feathers», New York Times, March 7, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/arts/design/t-rex-exhibition-american-museum-of-natural-history.html; Brigit Katz, «T. Rex Was Likely Covered in Scales, Not Feathers», Smithsonian, June 8, 2017, www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/t-rex-skin-was-not-covered-feathers-study-says-180963603.

33

Alix Spiegel and Lulu Miller, «How to Become Batman», Invisibilia, NPR, January 23, 2015, www.npr.org/programs/invisibilia/378577902/how-to-become-batman.

34

Добавлю от себя, что всегда думал, что выражение «поддуть дыма в задницу» [Sterling Haynes, «Special Feature: Tobacco Smoke Enemas», BC Medical Journal 54 (2012): 496–97.] пошло от традиции дарить сигары, чтобы произвести хорошее впечатление. Можете представить мое изумление, когда жена рассказала мне об истинном происхождении этого оборота: в 1700-х утонувших пытались возвращать к жизни, в прямом смысле вдувая им дым в задний проход посредством клизмы. Что это вредно для сердца, стало известно позже.

35

Stephen Greenspan, «Why We Keep Falling for Financial Scams», Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2009, www.wsj.com/articles/SB123093987596650197.

36

Philip E. Tetlock, «Social Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors», Psychological Review 109 (2002): 451–71.

37

Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, «Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments from an Argumentative Theory», Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (2011): 57–74.

38

Stephen Greenspan, «Fooled by Ponzi (and Madoff): How Bernard Madoff Made Off with My Money», eSkeptic, December 23, 2008, www.skeptic.com/eskeptic/08-12-23/#feature.

39

Greg Griffin, «Scam Expert from CU Expertly Scammed», Denver Post, March 2, 2009, www.denverpost.com/2009/03/02/scam-expert-from-cu-expertly-scammed.

40

George A. Kelly, The Psychology of Personal Constructs, vol. 1, A Theory of Personality (New York: Norton, 1955); Brian R. Little, Who Are You, Really? The Surprising Puzzle of Personality (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).

41

Arnaldo Camuffo et al., «A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial», Management Science 66 (2020): 564–86.

42

Mark Chussil, «Slow Deciders Make Better Strategists», Harvard Business Review, July 8, 2016, hbr.org/2016/07/slow-deciders-make-better-strategists.

43

Walter Isaacson, Einstein: His Life and Universe (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007).

44

David J. Lick, Adam L. Alter, and Jonathan B. Freeman, «Superior Pattern Detectors Efficiently Learn, Activate, Apply, and Update Social Stereotypes», Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 147 (2018): 209–27.

45

Dan M. Kahan, Ellen Peters, Erica C. Dawson, and Paul Slovic, «Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government», Behavioural Public Policy 1 (2017): 54–86.

46

Raymond S. Nickerson, «Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises», Review of General Psychology 2 (1998): 175–220.

47

Ben M. Tappin, Leslie van der Leer, and Ryan T. McKay, «The Heart Trumps the Head: Desirability Bias in Political Belief Revision», Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 146 (2017): 1143–49; Ziva Kunda, «The Case for Motivated Reasoning», Psychological Bulletin 108 (1990): 480–98.

48

Emily Pronin, Daniel Y. Lin, and Lee Ross, «The Bias Blind Spot: Perceptions of Bias in Self versus Others», Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 28 (2002): 369–81.

49

Richard F. West, Russell J. Meserve, and Keith E. Stanovich, «Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103 (2012): 506–19.

50

Keith E. Stanovich and Maggie E. Toplak, «The Need for Intellectual Diversity in Psychological Science: Our Own Studies of Actively Open-Minded Thinking as a Case Study», Cognition 187 (2019): 156–66; Jonathan Baron et al., «Why Does the Cognitive Reflection Test (Sometimes) Predict Utilitarian Moral Judgment (and Other Things)?», Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 4 (2015): 265–84.

51

Я начал не с ответов, а с вопросов о переосмыслении. Я искал новейшие данные рандомизированных контролируемых экспериментов и систематических исследований в реальных условиях. Когда информации не хватало, я организовывал собственные исследовательские проекты. Только сделав выводы из данных, я перешел к поиску примеров для иллюстрации. В идеальном мире любой вывод следует из метаанализа – изучения ряда исследований, в ходе которого ищут закономерности в совокупности данных и проверяют каждую единицу информации. В реальности я выбрал исследования, которые счел наиболее подробными, репрезентативными и дающими почву для размышлений. Иногда я описываю методы исследований, чтобы вы не только поняли, как ученые пришли к определенным выводам, но еще и чтобы вы понаблюдали за ходом их рассуждений. Во многих случаях я обобщил результаты, не вдаваясь в подробности, полагая, что вы учитесь научному переосмыслению, а не собираетесь податься в ученые. Если при упоминании метаанализа вы испытали прилив энтузиазма, возможно, вам стоит задуматься о социальных науках.

52

Neil Stenhouse et al., «The Potential Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Preventing Motivated Reasoning about Controversial Science», Journal of Environmental Psychology 57 (2018): 17–24.

53

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention (New York: HarperCollins, 1996).

54

Donald W. Mackinnon, «The Nature and Nurture of Creative Talent», American Psychologist 17 (1962): 484–495.

55

Dean Keith Simonton, «Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership: Estimates and Correlations for 42 U.S. Chief Executives», Political Psychology 27 (2006): 511–526.

56

Jane E. Dutton and Robert B. Duncan, «The Creation of Momentum for Change through the Process of Strategic Issue Diagnosis», Strategic Management Journal (May/June 1987): 279–95.

57

Jacquie McNish, «RIM’s Mike Lazaridis Walks Out of BBC Interview», Globe and Mail, April 13, 2011, www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rims-mike-lazaridis-walks-out-of-bbc-interview/article1322202.

58

Sean Silcoff, Jacquie McNish, and Steve Laurantaye, «How BlackBerry Blew It», Globe and Mail, September 27, 2013, www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-inside-story-of-why-blackberry-is-failing/article14563602/.

59

Jonathan S. Geller, «Open Letter to BlackBerry Bosses: Senior RIM Exec Tells All as Company Crumbles Around Him», BGR, June 30, 2011, bgr.com/2011/06/30/open-letter-to-blackberry-bosses-senior-rim-exec-tells-all-as-company-crumbles-around-him.

60

Personal interviews with Tony Fadell, June 1, 2020, and Mike Bell, November 14, 2019; Brian Merchant, The One Device: The Secret History of the iPhone (New York: Little, Brown, 2017).

61

Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man (London: Penguin Classics, 1871/2004).

62

Gabriel Anton, «On the Self-Awareness of Focal Drain Diseases by the Patient in Cortical Blindness and Cortical Deafness», Archiv für Psychiatrie und Nervenkrankheiten 32 (1899): 86–127.

63

Frederick C. Redlich and Joseph F. Dorsey, «Denial of Blindness by Patients with Cerebral Disease», Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry 53 (1945): 407–17.