Злой рок. Политика катастроф - читать бесплатно онлайн полную версию книги автора Ниал Фергюсон (ч. notes)

Примечания

1

Пер. М. Михайлова. Из кн.: Роберт Бёрнс. Стихотворения. М., 1982. (Здесь и далее прим. пер., если не указано иного.)

2

«Davos Man Is Cooling on Stockholm Girl Greta Thunberg», Sunday Times, January 26, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/davos-maniscoolingonstockholm-girl-greta-thunberg-z2sqcx872.

3

«The Deadliest Virus We Face Is Complacency», Sunday Times, February 2, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-deadliest-virus-we-face-is-complacency-wsp7xdr7s.

4

«Trump May Shrug Off Coronavirus. America May Not», Sunday Times, March 1, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-may-shrug-off-coronavirus-america-may-not-bmvw9rqzd.

5

«‘Network Effects’ Multiply a Viral Threat», Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/network-effects-multiplyaviral-threat-11583684394.

6

Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.

7

«The First Coronavirus Error Was Keeping Calm», Sunday Times, March 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-first-coronavirus-error-was-keeping-calm-zvj28s0rp.

8

Richard J. Evans, Death in Hamburg: Society and Politics in the Cholera Years, 1830–1910 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).

9

Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 342f.

10

Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 144f.

11

Niall Ferguson, Empire: The Rise and Fall of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), p. 65.

12

Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 175.

13

Пер. И. Кригера.

14

Niall Ferguson, The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 144.

15

Пер. Т. Азаркович.

16

Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook^♦ (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 203.

17

SeroTracker, Public Health Agency of Canada, https://serotracker.com/Dashboard.

18

О точных условиях пари см.: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/. Рис прежде всего был озабочен опасностью биотерроризма, но добавил «биологическую ошибку», подразумевая под ней «нечто, имеющее тот же эффект, что и террористическая атака, но возникшее скорее не из злого умысла, а по неосторожности». Есть некая двусмысленность в том, имеются ли в виду под словом «жертвы» только случаи со смертельным исходом: «В идеале в число жертв следует включить „людей, нуждающихся в госпитализации“ и не включать косвенные смерти, вызванные патогеном».

19

Patrick G. T. Walker et al., «The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression», MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.

20

Для ознакомления: Ferguson, Square and the Tower.

21

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).

22

«South Africa’s ‘Doom Pastor’ Found Guilty of Assault», BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.

23

«All unavoided is the doom of destiny». Пер. А. Радловой. Уильям Шекспир. Ричард III. Акт IV, сцена 4.

24

«What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom?» Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Макбет. Акт IV, сцена 1.

25

Nicole Sperling, «‘Contagion,’ Steven Soderbergh’s 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts», New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.

26

Луи-Фердинанд Селин. Путешествие на край ночи / Пер. Ю. Корнеева. М., 1994.

27

Louis-Ferdinand Céline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.

28

Marc Bloch, L’étrange défaite: Témoignage écrit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).

29

Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).

30

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).

31

Didier Sornette, «Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises», Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 09–36 (2009), доступно в источнике: SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.

32

Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).

33

Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).

34

Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).

35

Henry A. Kissinger, «Decision Making in a Nuclear World» (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.

36

Richard Feynman, «What Do You Care What Other People Think?» Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179–184.

37

«House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response», Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.

38

J. R. Hampton, «The End of Medical History?» Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366–375.

39

Larry Brilliant, «My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics», February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.

40

См. в целом: Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).

41

Ricki Harris, «Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of ‘Biological Boot Loader’ for AI», Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.

42

Пер. М. Лозинского. Уильям Шекспир. Гамлет. Акт V, сцена 2.

43

Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.

44

Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, «Life Expectancy», Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.

45

«Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births)», World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT; «Mortality Rate Age 514», UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, https://childmortality.org/data/Somalia.

46

Джон Донн. По ком звонит колокол / Пер. А. Нестерова. М., 2004. Медитация XVII.

47

Salvator Rosa, 1615–1673, L’Umana Fragilita («Хрупкость человеческой жизни»), ок. 1656, Музей Фицуильяма, Кембридж, https://www.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/pharos/collection_pages/italy_pages/PD_53_1958/TXT_SE-PD_53_1958.html.

48

Philippe Aries, The Hour of Our Death, trans. Helen Weaver (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1981).

49

Adam Leith Gollner, «The Immortality Financiers: The Billionaires Who Want to Live Forever», Daily Beast, August 20, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-immortality-financiers-the-billionaires-who-wanttolive-forever.

50

Jon Stewart, «Borges on Immortality», Philosophy and Literature 17, no. 2 (October 1993), pp. 295–301.

51

Murray Gell-Mann, «Regularities in Human Affairs», Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2 (2011), pp. 53f.

52

Cynthia Stokes Brown, Big History: From the Big Bang to the Present (New York: New Press, 2007), pp. 53f. См. также: Fred Spier, Big History and the Future of Humanity (Chichester, UK: Blackwell, 2011), p. 68.

53

Стандартная для англоязычной литературы отсылка к сказке «Златовласка и три медведя», известной на русском языке под названием «Три медведя». Оказавшись в домике у медведей, Златовласка несколько раз выбирает между разными предметами и обязательно находит тот, который оказывается ей «в самый раз».

54

Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс, «Introduction», in Global Ca tastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 9.

55

Bostrom and Сirkoviс, «Introduction», p. 8.

56

См.в целом: Tom Holland, Dominion: How the Christian Revolution Remade the World (New York: Basic Books, 2019).

57

Richard Landes, Heaven on Earth: The Varieties of Millennial Experience (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 426f. См. также: Paul Casanova, Mohammed et la fin du monde: étude critique sur l’Islam primitive (Paris: P. Geuthner, 1911), pp. 17f.

58

Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1961 [1957]), pp. 106f.

59

Holland, Dominion, p. 300.

60

James J. Hughes, «Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 9, 78, 83.

61

Holland, Dominion, p. 451.

62

Robert Service, Lenin: A Biography (London: Pan Macmillan, 2011), pp. 538, 539, 594. См. также: Robert C. Williams, «The Russian Revolution and the End of Time: 1900–1940», Jahrbücher für Geschichte Osteuropas, Neue Folge, 43, no. 3 (1995), pp. 364–401.

63

«Lenin Opposed as Antichrist by Peasants in Old Russia», New York Times, June 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/1919/06/21/archives/lenin-opposedasantichristbypeasantsinold-russia.html.

64

Цитируется по: Владимир Прокопенко. Эрик Фёгелин и его манифест новой политической науки // Эрик Фёгелин. Новая наука политики. Введение. СПб., 2021.

65

Eric Voegelin, The New Science of Politics: An Introduction, 4th ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 120f.

66

Эрик Фёгелин. Новая наука политики. Введение / Пер. Н. Селивёрстова. СПб., 2021.

67

Voegelin, The New Science, p. 124.

68

Voegelin, The New Science, pp. 122, 129, 131f.

69

Landes, Heaven on Earth, p. 470.

70

James A. Hijiya, «The Gita of J. Robert Oppenheimer», Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 144, no. 2 (June 2000).

71

Doomsday Clock, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/.

72

Sewell Chan, «Doomsday Clock Is Set at 2 Minutes to Midnight, Closest Since 1950s», New York Times, January 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/world/americas/doomsday-clock-nuclear-scientists.html.

73

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, «Closer than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight», ed. John Mecklin, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/.

74

Корпорация RAND – американский экспертно-аналитический центр, выполняющий заказы правительственных организаций США, но не только.

75

Сьерра-клуб – американская экологическая организация.

76

Matthew Connelly, «How Did the ‘Population Control’ Movement Go So Terribly Wrong?» Wilson Quarterly (Summer 2008), https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/summer-2008-saving-the-world/how-did-population-control-movementgosoterribly-wrong/. См. также: Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008).

77

Greta Thunberg, No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference (London: Penguin, 2019), p. 46.

78

William Cummings, «‘The World Is Going to End in 12 Years If We Don’t Address Climate Change,’ Ocasio-Cortez Says», USA Today, January 22, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez-climate-change-alarm/2642481002/.

79

«Greta Thunberg’s Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum», New York Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.

80

Leonard Lyons, «Loose-Leaf Notebook», Washington Post, January 20, 1947.

81

«Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik!» Kurt Tucholsky, «Französische Witze (I)» и «Noch einmal französische Witze (II)», Vossische Zeitung, August 23, 1925; September 10, 1925. Колонки перепечатаны в кн.: Tucholsky, K. Lerne lachen ohne zu weinen (Berlin: Ernst Rowohlt, 1932), pp. 147–156.

82

Eliezer Yudkowsky, «Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 114.

83

Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases» (препринт, 2020); Lee Mordechai, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, and Hendrik Poinar, «The Justinianic Plague: An Inconsequential Pandemic?» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (henceforth PNAS) 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.

84

Достойное обсуждение вклада Ричардсона: Brian Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», American Scientist 90 (January – February 2002), pp. 10–15.

85

Классические труды: Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983). Из более современных важных публикаций: Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts», Tail Risk Working Papers (2015), arXiv:1505.04722v2; Cirillo and Taleb, «The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?», в кн.: The Causes of Peace: What We Know Now, ed. Asle Toje and Bård Nikolas Vik Steen (Austin: Lioncrest, 2020), pp. 51–77; Bear F. Braumoeller, Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019); Aaron Clauset, «On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars», в кн.: Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences (Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol. 27), ed. Nils Gleditsch (Berlin: Springer, 2020), pp. 113–127.

86

Cirillo and Taleb, «Statistical Properties.»

87

Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993). Критику воззрений Кросби на Колумбов обмен с акцентом на том, как влияли эксплуатация и порабощение на смертность коренного населения, см.: David S. Jones, «Virgin Soils Revisited», William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703–742. См. также: Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 1492–1650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.)

88

Всестороннее обсуждение в кн.: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: History’s Age of Hatred (London: Penguin Press, 2006), appendix, pp. 647–654.

89

Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», p. 12.

90

Robert J. Barro, «Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century», Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 3 (2006): 823–866, table 1.

91

Причина столь серьезного спада в 1629 году неочевидна: да, война с Испанией шла плохо, но главным театром военных действий в тот год все же были Карибские острова. Специалистам в политической истории 1629 год известен прежде всего как начало 11-летнего «личного правления» Карла I при отсутствии парламента. (Прим. авт.)

92

John A. Eddy, «The Maunder Minimum», Science 192, no. 4245 (June 18, 1976), pp. 1189–1202. См. также: Stephanie Pain, «1709: The Year That Europe Froze», New Scientist, February 4, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126942-100-1709-the-year-that-europe-froze/.

93

Nicholas Dimsdale, Sally Hills, and Ryland Thomas, «The UK Recession in Context – What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us?» Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Q4 2010), pp. 277–291.

См. также: David Milliken and Andy Bruce, «Bank of England Sees Worst Slump in 300 Years as Coronavirus Bites», Reuters, May 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-boe/bankofengland-sees-worst-slumpin300-yearsascoronavirus-bites-idUSKBN22I3BV.

94

Gita Gopinath, «Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery», IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/.

95

См. также: Leandro Prados de la Escosura, «Output per Head in Pre-Independence Africa: Quantitative Conjectures», Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Working Papers in Economic History (November 2012).

96

«Global Data», Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace, https://fragilestatesindex.org/data/.

97

Leandro Prados de la Escosura. «World Human Development: 1870–2007», EHES Working Paper No. 34 (January 2013).

98

Allison McCann, Jin Wu, and Josh Katz, «How the Coronavirus Compares with 100 Years of Deadly Events», New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html. См. также: Jeremy Samuel Faust, Zhenqiu Lin, and Carlos del Rio, «Comparison of Estimated Excess Deaths in New York City During the COVID-19 and 1918 Influenza Pandemics», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 8 (2020), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236.

99

Edgar Jones, «The Psychology of Protecting the UK Public Against External Threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz Compared», Lancet, August 27, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215–0366 (20) 30342-4.

100

Организации, помеченные значком ♦, запрещены в РФ.

101

Эдуард Гиббон. История упадка и разрушения Римской империи. В 7 т. / Пер. В. Неведомского. СПб., 2004. Т. 7.

102

Lucretius, On the Nature of the Universe, trans. R. E. Latham, rev. ed. (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1994), pp. 64ff.

103

Herbert Butterfield, The Origins of History, ed. J. H. Adam Watson (London: Eyre Methuen 1981), p. 207.

104

Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1979), pp. 41, 44; Tacitus, The Histories, trans. Kenneth Wellesley (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1975), p. 17. [На русском языке: Полибий. Всеобщая история в сорока книгах. Т. II, кн. VI–XXV / Пер. Ф. Мищенко. СПб., Наука, 2005. С. 9; Корнелий Тацит. Сочинения в двух томах. Том II. История / Пер. Г. Кнабе. М., Ладомир, 1993.]

105

Полибий. Всеобщая история в сорока книгах / Пер. Ф. Мищенко. СПб., 2005. Т. II, кн. VI–XXV.

106

Butterfield, Origins of History, p. 125.

107

Michael Puett, «Classical Chinese Historical Thought», in A Companion to Global Historical Thought, ed. Prasenjit Duara, Viren Murthy, and Andrew Sartori (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2014), pp. 34–46. См. также: Edwin O. Reischauer, «The Dynastic Cycle», in The Pattern of Chinese History, ed. John Meskill (Lexington, KY: D. C. Heath, 1965), pp. 31–33.

108

Джамбаттиста Вико. Основания новой науки об общей природе наций / Пер. А. Губера. М., 1994.

109

Giambattista Vico, «The New Science», in Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 18f. [На русском языке: Джамбаттиста Вико. Основания новой науки об общей природе наций / Пер. А. Губера. М., 1994. С. 114–115.]

110

Pieter Geyl and Arnold Toynbee, «Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate», в кн.: Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 308ff. О монументальном труде Тойнби «Постижение истории» (A Study of History), некогда влиятельном, а ныне почти забытом, см.: Arthur Marwick, The Nature of History, 3 ^rd ed. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1989), pp. 287f.

111

Полное название – «Исследование о природе и причинах богатства народов».

112

Карл Маркс. Капитал. Полная версия. М., 2020.

113

Karl Marx, Das Kapital: A Critique of Political Economy, trans. Serge L. Levitsky (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), vol. I, chapter 32. [На русском языке: Карл Маркс. Капитал. Полная версия / М., АСТ: ОГИЗ, 2020. С. 268.]

114

David C. Baker, «The Roman Dominate from the Perspective of Demographic-Structure Theory», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), pp. 217–251.

115

Leonid Grinin, «State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012).

116

A. Korotayev et al., «A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia», Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), p. 289.

117

H. Urdal, «People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited», Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (July 2005), p. 430; H. Urdal, «A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence», International Studies Quarterly 50 (September 2006), pp. 617, 624.

118

Jack A. Goldstone et al., «A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability», American Journal of Political Science, 54, 1 (January 2010), pp. 190–208. См. также: J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).

119

Отец и сын (фр.).

120

Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American History (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1986).

121

William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).

122

Robert Huebscher, «Neil Howe – The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning», Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.

123

См., напр.: W. R. Thompson, «Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 26–57.

124

Ian Morris, «The Evolution of War», Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). См. также: S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, «Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies», Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 58–80.

125

Qiang Chen, «Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China», School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).

126

См., напр.: Michael J Storozum et al., «The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 1048–1128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China», Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.

127

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.

128

Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.

129

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