SIXTY-TWO

THE SITUATION ROOM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON, D.C.
18 MAY 2017
10:42 A.M. (EDT)

The Situation Room had just been refurbished again, updated with the latest security and communications equipment. It looked nothing like Kennedy’s original room, with its small table, paneled walls, analogue clocks, and Bakelite telephones. But Lane felt the weight of history nonetheless. JFK had created the Situation Room after the Bay of Pigs fiasco, believing his administration had stumbled into a crisis and nearly a world war because he lacked enough credible information. Fifty-five years later, Lane still felt like he didn’t have all the intel he needed to avoid a war with China, despite all of the computers and high-tech gear surrounding him. But he was going to have to make a decision today nonetheless.

Lane sat at the head of the rectangular mahogany table where he had control of the video monitors. The others sat in the high-backed leather chairs in no particular order, ignoring protocol. Lane was informal and preferred to keep it that way even in the Situation Room. In attendance were JCS Chairman General Onstot and the other service chiefs, along with Director of National Intelligence Pia, Secretary of State Wheeler, Secretary of Defense Shafer, and National Security Advisor Garza.

The image on the nearly wall-length HD screen opposite Lane was a live satellite video feed showing the Chinese fleet steaming toward the Senkakus. He intentionally kept all of the other video screens blank. Too much information was as big a problem as the lack of it.

Lane spoke to the speakerphone on the table. Myers was on the other end in Japan. “What’s the word from your man Ian?”

“He’s still running the software analysis. He isn’t able to confirm whether or not the Wu-14 will actually work.”

“And the bot?”

“It’s found several Chinese classified test results claiming success.”

The DNI chimed in. “Same as the thumb-drive data you sent us. Our analysts say it’s legit, so that clinches it.”

“Not necessarily,” Myers said. “Ian believes it’s possible all of those reports might be falsified, including the internal ones.”

“Why would the Chinese file bogus test results with their own people?”

“For the same reasons our defense contractors sometimes do,” Garza said. “They massage the data to get continued funding for their pet projects. Even some of the peer-reviewed science journals are loaded with bogus research these days. Everyone’s out for a buck.”

“Thank you, Margaret. I appreciate everything you’ve done.”

“My pleasure, Mr. President. I’ll wait for your further instructions.” Myers clicked off.

“Well, you heard it for yourselves. President Myers says that if we don’t send the George Washington across the red line and block the Chinese assault on the Senkakus the Japanese will go to war without us.” Lane turned to Secretary Wheeler. “Do you concur with her assessment?”

Wheeler nodded. “The Japanese will undoubtedly go to war without us, especially now that the presence of the Chinese fleet was leaked to the Japanese press. New and larger mass protests have broken out all over Japan. If Ito doesn’t act quickly, his government will fall and a militarist right-wing coalition will undoubtedly be formed. If that happens, all bets are off.”

Lane turned to the DNI. “How did the Japanese media get this information?”

Pia shrugged his shoulders. “A leak in Ito’s cabinet or maybe on the JSDF staff. Certainly wasn’t on our end, otherwise it would’ve gone to an American media outlet.”

“The Japanese won’t be waiting for us for much longer. Our fleet guys at Yokosuka report their JMSDF counterparts are prepping for war even as we speak,” Onstot said.

The George Washington was ported out of Yokosuka, but the carrier and its battle group were already at sea. After his meeting with the JCS at the Tank several days earlier, Lane had decided to deploy the George Washington to Okinawa for a “training exercise,” hoping that it would prove to be enough of a deterrent to keep the Chinese at bay, but clearly the ploy had failed. The George Washington and its escorts were two miles north of Okinawa, which kept them safely beyond the Chinese red line, but still within striking distance of the Senkakus.

“Still no word from President Sun?” Lane asked.

Wheeler shook her head. “He’s just waiting to see how all of this plays out to his advantage. Our best guess is that he’s hoping to clean house when this is all over. It’s a shrewd gamble.”

“He’s a sonofabitch for risking a war for his personal political gain.”

“Like every other fucking politician,” Garza said. Catching himself, he added, “Present company excluded.”

“He’s not the only one. The rest of the PLA is standing on the sidelines, too. They’ll be the first ones to applaud if Admiral Ji pulls this thing off,” Shafer said.

Lane shifted in his chair. “If we deploy the George Washington across the red line, will that be enough to stop the Chinese?”

Wheeler drummed her fingers on the table, weighing her response. “My gut says no. We’ve communicated our position clearly and forthrightly. There’s no misunderstanding. If the George Washington doesn’t deter them on the far side of the red line, it won’t on the near side.”

“Which only confirms President Myers’s report. The Chinese wouldn’t be this bold if they didn’t possess a fully operational carrier-killing missile,” Onstot said. “The navy sure as hell believes it. Our satellites report that a DF-21D mobile launcher at Ningbo has been prepared and is ready for launch.”

“The Wu-14?” Lane asked.

“Based on what Pearce and Myers described, I would say so.”

“Should we risk sending the George Washington over the red line?”

“The navy says not unless we’re willing to do a preemptive strike on that mobile platform,” Shafer said.

“Which starts the war,” Garza said. “Exactly what we’re trying to avoid.”

“That platform might be a decoy. The real launcher might be somewhere else,” General Onstot said.

The DNI shook his head. “Our intelligence reports indicate no other movement or deployment of mobile launchers outside of Ningbo, something they should’ve done as a decoy move if nothing else. Somebody over there isn’t doing Feng and Ji any favors.”

“Does that mean President Sun is sending us a signal?” Lane asked. The CIA had just confirmed that both Vice Chairman Feng and Admiral Ji were on board the Liaoning.

The secretary of state shook her head. “I’m not sure. Feng and Ji are thick as thieves, and the two of them together pose the greatest threat to Sun’s presidency.”

“You’re saying he’s hoping they’ll go down with the ship?” Lane asked, incredulous.

“He isn’t doing anything extra to prevent that possibility, that’s for sure,” Garza said.

Lane turned back to Pia. “What if we ask the Chinese for a forty-eight-hour delay?”

“To what end? They’re determined to seize the Senkakus even if they granted us another forty-eight hours, which they likely won’t.”

“And if we don’t do anything and allow the Chinese to seize the Senkakus and abandon the Japanese to their fate, all of our other allies in the region — Taiwan, the Philippines, even Australia — will question our commitment to them. They’ll run as fast as they can to Beijing to cut their best deals before the Chinese turn their fleets in their direction,” Wheeler said.

“A complete power realignment throughout the western Pacific. Hell, all of Asia, for that matter,” Shafer added.

“And you’ll embolden the North Koreans for sure,” Pia said.

Onstot leaned forward. “For the record, the navy strongly believes that sending the George Washington over the red line will result in its destruction.”

“So we’re still at square one. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t,” Lane said.

“It’s a lose-lose situation,” Garza said. “A one-handed clap.”

“Almost,” Lane said, leaning back. “There’s still one option.”

His advisors all exchanged a glance, curious. “What have we missed?” Wheeler finally asked.

Lane smiled. “Pearce.”

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