Battlefield Korea

War in Europe

Ambassador Max Bryant had been appointed to be the US Ambassador to China by the new US President because he was a lifelong friend of China’s President Xi. It was hoped that this friendship would give the US a competitive edge in the looming trade negotiations. As Ambassador Bryant sat in his office reviewing the latest State Department intelligence summary, he could not believe what he was reading. The Russians had shot down several NATO aircraft over Ukraine, and now they were demanding that US and NATO forces withdraw from the country or face severe consequences.

His Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) had called an emergency meeting down in “the box” in an hour to discuss these developments. He hoped that once they got to the secured facility inside the Embassy, his DCM and CIA station chief would be able to provide him with some better insight as to what was going on in eastern Europe and how it would affect things there in China.

Then of course there was the situation in Mongolia, which he had also recently learned about. “The President put out a statement condemning the Chinese takeover of Mongolia, but what exactly does that mean?” he thought. “What does the President want me to do about it?”

Secretary of State Johnson had asked his team to determine what the Chinese government’s intentions were with Mongolia and if this was just a temporary incursion or something more permanent. Ambassador Bryant placed the intelligence summary in the folder on the right side of his desk and grabbed his notepad as he headed out of the office to the bowels of the Embassy. As he walked down the hall and got into the elevator, the Senior Defense Official, Major General Robert Kip, joined him.

MG Kip was the senior defense official stationed at the Embassy, and was responsible for helping the DCM and Ambassador address and deal with the myriad of defense issues and challenges between the US and China. His insight and knowledge in military affairs had proven to be invaluable the last eighteen months he had been stationed at the Embassy. While his tour in Beijing was ending in six months, Ambassador Bryant planned on leveraging his expertise as often as he could.

While they were still moving from floor to floor, Ambassador Bryant asked, “What do you make of the situation happening in Europe?” He was hoping to get a sense of what his military advisor was thinking.

Pondering the question for a minute, MG Kip answered, “I think things are heating up with Russia, and I’m not sure how our folks in Washington are going to deal with it,” he said honestly.

The elevator dinged, letting them know they had reached the basement of the building, where the “box” was located. Inside of each US Embassy was a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF), where there was a Top-Secret computer and connection to both the intelligence community and headquarters back home. The SCIF at this new Embassy building (which had been built in 2008) had a larger secured facility than most. The CIA used the chamber often to communicate with their home agency, and kept this room staffed nearly twenty-four hours a day.

The two gentlemen walked down the hallway to a large cavernous room that was slightly raised above the ground and enclosed in a copper mesh. They walked in and saw the rest of the leadership team for the embassy already assembled. There was the head Regional Security Office, the FBI’s legal attaché, the senior political officer, the CIA’s Chief of Station, the Defense Intelligence Agency representative, the Deputy Chief of Mission (who was the senior career diplomat) and the Senior Defense Official who walked in with Ambassador Bryant.

With everyone seated, the meeting began. Deputy Chief of Mission Tim Gilmore started the discussion. “Well, ladies and gentlemen, the Russians have issued an ultimatum to NATO; they’ve given NATO until the end of the week to withdraw their forces back across the Dnieper River or they will be forcibly removed. Then, they have another week to withdraw completely from Ukraine. While Europe is not our area of responsibility, we need to consider how the Russian actions are playing out here in Asia, and China in particular.”

The others in the room looked around at each other and then back at the DCM. The political officer, Vincent Jones, spoke up next. “Well, I’m not sure how the whole Russian angle fits into this, but I met with my counterpart yesterday afternoon and it appears that China is not considering the situation with Mongolia a short-term problem. They insist that the Mongolian government has been complicit in the violence against their citizens and more importantly, they believe that Mongolia is a part of Greater China-a lost province that they are bringing back into the fold.”

Snorting before responding, the Chief of Station retorted, “China has been going on and on about their ‘Greater China’ policy for decades. They still believe in the Qing Dynasty, which encompasses Mongolia and most of Southeast Asia.” He sighed before continuing, “Look, my agency does not believe there is a coincidence or link between what is going on in Europe and the sudden annexation of Mongolia, but I do. I think the Chinese are using the situation in Europe to expand their territory and return China back to the borders that existed prior to 1911.”

Ambassador Bryant signaled that he wanted to add something. “I have known President Xi for more than thirty years. I do not believe he would lead China towards a confrontation with the US. He wants to improve relations with America and focus on jobs. What evidence do we have that China is moving towards a greater military confrontation?” he asked, skeptical of what the Station Chief had just said.

The DCM held up his hand before anyone could get another word in edgewise. “I’d like to get our military members in on the discussion now. What are your thoughts, gentlemen?”

The senior Defense Intelligence Agency representative, Terry Bell, interjected, “-Look, we have seen an enormous increase in Chinese military activity. I’ve been stationed here in China for fifteen years. I would like to think I know a thing or two about how they operate and what they are doing. I’m just going to address the military perspective and leave the politics to you professionals. Over the last two decades, the Chinese have spent an inordinate amount of money modernizing their force. They know where they are weak and where we are strong. They have built their force structure around those strengths and weaknesses.”

“Right now, they are moving entire army groups from one part of the country to another part for ‘training exercises.’ That’s a load of crock. The entire airborne force that captured Mongolia has already been replaced by regular soldiers and transferred down south. They have moved nearly 500,000 soldiers towards the borders of Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. They have shifted nearly 70 % of their entire air force to bases within striking range of those countries. Never in the fifteen years I’ve been here in China have I seen them move this many soldiers or military equipment from one part of the country to the other for an ‘exercise.’” He hoped he would be able to convince the people in the room of the seriousness of what was happening.

MG Kip added, “The unique thing about these moves by the Chinese military is that they are intentionally avoiding the appearance of any hostility towards Taiwan. They are even drawing from forces stationed in that area to be moved further south. I believe they are doing this because they want to assure the US that any future military moves they make are not directed at any US allies, and are rather aimed at what they view as ‘internal affairs’ within China.”

The DCM brought everyone’s thoughts back to the initial question. “So, what is our opinion then that we want to transmit back to headquarters and the National Security Council?”

Everyone thought about that for a moment, and then slowly, each of them gave their opinions. The consensus was that China, while certainly acting provocatively towards their neighbors, was not directly threatening the United States, global trade, or any US allies yet. China might move to annex the countries of Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar, but would not attack Taiwan, Japan or South Korea. They decided to write up a report to this effect and send it back to D.C.

As to how to proceed, the people in the room simply could not come to an agreement. The debate over what their official response should be and what their positions should be behind the scenes remained cordial, even though there were strong disagreements. Although the meeting was originally only supposed to last for an hour or two, they were there for over four hours. Ultimately though, they could not come to an agreement, and decided to wait on direction from the higher-ups.