Command Authority

29

The conference room of the White House Situation Room was chosen as the venue for today’s presidential briefing on the situation in Ukraine for one key reason. There were more multimedia options in the Situation Room than there were in the Oval Office, and the President’s briefers in the FBI, CIA, DIA, DNI, and the Department of State planned on using a number of different means to paint the picture for the President.

As the meeting was getting under way, Mary Pat Foley asked if she could make a quick announcement. “We have learned some distressing news this morning. It was discovered today in Ukraine that the number-two man in the SBU, Ukrainian’s security service, has been spying for the Russians. He has fled Kiev, and there is a manhunt across Ukraine for him, although we assume he will turn up in Russia.”

“Christ,” Ryan said.

Jay Canfield already knew this. He said, “We are in the process of conducting a security review to see just how exposed our local operations are, but it doesn’t look good. Our local people will be ratcheting back their operations accordingly.”

President Ryan said, “There go another set of eyes and ears in the region.”

“I agree,” said Mary Pat. “This one hurts.”

“Who do we have as COS Kiev?”

Jay Canfield said, “Keith Bixby. He’s a good man. A field spook, not a desk guy.”

“Watch it, Jay. I was a desk guy,” Ryan quipped.

Canfield said, “No, Mr. President. I was a desk guy. You were a desk guy that didn’t stay at his desk.” Jay said it with a smile. “You know what I mean.”

“I hear you.”

Mary Pat said, “I know Bixby quite well, and we couldn’t have a better COS in place.”

“Will we need to pull him out?”

“Bixby himself will be best positioned to determine what CIA’s exposure will be on this. He will make the call on what operations to shutter, what people to send home, what foreign agents we need to either break ties with or pull out of the country for their own safety. Needless to say, this is a disastrous time for this to happen. We’ll rotate in some new blood, but the Russians will see who is suddenly moving into our embassy in Kiev, and that will tell them who the new spooks are.”

Ryan groaned, thinking about how much harder this would make things.

He said, “Okay. Let’s move to the next topic. Volodin’s statement announcing expanding ties with China. Leaving out the economics of it for a moment, what does the China — Russia agreement mean in practical terms, geopolitically?”

Foley said, “The two nations have been taking a lot of similar stances recently. On Syria, on North Korea, on Iran. China and Russia are burying the hatchet on international issues, so this agreement will only strengthen that.

“Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran have become what some have called an iron triangle.”

“And economically? What’s the end result of this?”

Ryan turned to an economic briefer for the State Department. Her name was Helen Glass; she was a Wharton grad and well known at the White House as an expert on Russia.

“It’s a win-win. China lacks Russia’s scientific know-how and raw materials. Russia lacks China’s market and manufacturing prowess. If they can implement the agreement, both nations will benefit.”

“How bad is Russia’s economy now?” Ryan asked.

Glass said, “Several years ago, Russia thought it had it made. A huge find of both gold ore and oil, both in Siberia, seemed to portend great things for Russia. But the gold find was not as large as early estimates, and the oil has been difficult to extract, especially when Volodin and his predecessor squeezed out Western companies in an attempt to give Gazprom full control of the fields.

“Energy commodities are roughly seventy percent of all Russia’s exports. But there is a downside to this. Huge natural resources have a negative effect on a nation’s manufacturing sector. They call the phenomenon the Russian disease.”

Ryan nodded. He understood the phenomenon. “The money is in the dirt, it just has to be dug up or pumped up. The money isn’t in innovation or intellectual property or in manufacturing. After a while, a nation loses its ability to innovate and to think and to build things.”

“That’s correct, Mr. President. Russia had great potential when the Soviet Union dissolved, but in the nineties it all went bad for them when the economy collapsed. It was the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world without a war being fought.”

Ryan said, “As much of a disaster as it was, you’ve got to give the Russian people some credit for just surviving it.”

“They did survive it, yes. But they have not flourished. Volodin is taking credit for things because no one has come out to show Russians what wealth they should be enjoying. Russia’s economy is big, but it’s not modern or dynamic. Industry is focused on the extraction of raw materials. The only manufactured goods people want on the world market are Kalashnikovs, caviar, and vodka.”

“You are describing a banana republic with a quarter of a billion people and hundreds of ICBMs,” Jack said.

“I try not to exaggerate, Mr. President. But… insofar as their economy is limited by what they can dig up and sell… yes. And that is not their only problem. Russia’s main export is fossil fuels. But coming in at a close second is corruption.”

“That’s harsh.”

Helen Glass did not waver. “But true. There has been a heinous redistribution of property to those in power and the expansion of a police state to protect them. The bureaucracy is a protection racket.

“Russia is governed not by formal institutions, it is run by the will of the siloviki. The Duma is nothing more than the Ministry of Implementation. It does what it is told to do by the siloviki.”

Ryan said, “The cronies who run business and the country.”

“Yes, and nowhere is the connection between business and government more direct than in the case of Gazprom,” she said. “Gazprom is officially privatized, but the Kremlin retains forty percent of the shares, and effectively one hundred percent of the decision-making ability. Woe be to the Gazprom private shareholder who goes against the wishes of Volodin. He says his tougher version of capitalism is what has allowed Russia to prosper, but what he is doing is not capitalism, and Russia has not prospered.”

Ryan asked, “Is there any economist in the world who correlates Russia’s increased authoritarianism with their increased economic growth?”

Helen Glass thought for a moment. “Sure, you can find some who will say just that, but remember, there were economists predicting the fall of capitalism and the rise of world communism, even in the eighties.”

Jack laughed. “Good point. You can always find an expert to confirm your belief, no matter how ridiculous.”

“Since 2008, over half a trillion dollars has fled Russia. Most of it is pure capital flight. This is billionaire money, squirreled away in offshore financial centers. The top-five foreign investment locations in and out of Russia are tax havens.”

Ryan said, “Meaning it’s not investment at all.”

Glass responded, “Correct. It is money-laundering and tax-avoidance schemes.”

“Right,” said Ryan. “As long as energy prices are high enough, the Kremlin can gloss over the fact that a third of its economy is sucked up by corruption.”

“Correct again, Mr. President. Foreign investors are fleeing. The Russian stock exchange has lost nearly a trillion in value in the past year. Capital investment has fallen fifty percent.

“Russia has everything it could possibly need to be one of the great economies of the world. Well-educated people, natural resources, access to markets and transportation infrastructure, land. If not for the pervasive corruption, they would be at the top of the list of world nations.

“Russians are worse off today than they were a decade ago. Public safety, health, law, property-rights security. Alcohol consumption has grown, health spending has shrunk, life expectancy has dropped in the past years.

“They have enacted laws barring dual citizens from appearing on state television. They are removing foreign words from the Russian language.”

Ryan said, “It feels like they’ve regressed thirty years over there, doesn’t it?”

“It is very much like that, indeed, Mr. President.”

Jack Ryan turned away from the economic adviser and toward Mary Pat Foley and Jay Canfield. “And with all this we have the knowledge that Russia wants to invade its sovereign neighbor, and now our intelligence capability in the nation has been crippled.”

“It’s a mess, Mr. President,” Canfield admitted.