Command Authority

54

President Jack Ryan sat at the head of the conference table in the White House Situation Room, a cup of coffee and a stack of folders in front of him. He’d been going through this material for half an hour in preparation for this meeting, and now, as everyone got situated around him, he made a few notes on his legal pad: questions to ask, points to make.

Jack looked up from his papers. He was beginning to see as much of the Situation Room as he did the Oval Office, and he knew this didn’t say anything good about the current state of peace and stability in the world.

Around him, key members of his intelligence, diplomatic, and defense team filed into the room and sat down. Scott Adler was absent — he was still shuttling around Europe — but the rest of the major players were all present and accounted for.

Today’s meeting was to discuss the last seventy-two hours of activity in Ukraine. Six Americans had been killed at the Lighthouse Special Mission Compound, including the CIA chief of station for the country, and although the international news organizations covering the action there had framed it as a violent demonstration outside a NATO compound that led to the death of several NATO personnel, on Russian television they ran breathless stories about American imperialism turned deadly when CIA gunmen opened fire on a crowd of peaceful protesters.

And then, the next day, the assassination of Oksana Zueva. The brazen killing had been characterized by virtually all news outlets on the planet as the work of Ukrainian nationalists, perhaps even ordered by President Kuvchek himself.

Volodin shut off the gas pipelines to Ukraine and Western Europe after the Zueva killing, and then the bombing of the pro-Russian rally in Donetsk came the very next day. Donetsk was presumed to be the work of nationalists, although the Russian Gazprom-owned media was advancing the theory that the CIA outpost in Sevastopol was involved.

At this moment, President Ryan was well beyond the point of outrage. No, after everything the FSB had pulled off in the past few weeks, he’d managed to find a measure of inner calm by telling himself a serious crisis was at hand, and only his level head could bring a quick resolution to the situation.

He brought the meeting to order by addressing Jay Canfield, director of the CIA: “Jay, what are the Russians using as proof the CIA was involved in the Donetsk car bombing?”

Canfield said, “They are showing pictures of the wreckage of the Lighthouse, and they have lists of names of agents we used in country. They claim to have CIA documents that were given to pro-nationalists that instructed them to make the bomb that was used as well.”

“They are claiming they got this from their spy in the Security Service of Ukraine?”

“Correct, sir.”

Ryan had read all the reports of the Donetsk bombing. “Why the hell would the CIA use hexogen? That’s been around since the Second World War.”

Mary Pat Foley answered this one: “The Russians say we used hex because we wanted it to look like local yokels put it together. It’s easy enough to come by, and extremely easy to handle and detonate.”

Ryan blew out an angry sigh.

“I know. I’m just telling you what they are saying.”

Ryan said, “This is like the Golovko poisoning. And the Biryukov bombing. And it’s like the assassination of Oksana Zueva.”

Foley agreed. “It’s pretty much like everything FSB director Roman Talanov has a hand in. He sacrifices people for his needs. His own people. He frames people and organizations he opposes to misplace blame.”

Canfield added, “Obviously we were involved in Sevastopol, though we weren’t involved in either the Donetsk bombing or the Zueva assassination or the killings of Biryukov or Golovko. Talanov can make all the claims he wants, but there is no proof whatsoever.”

Ryan said, “The men who survived the attack in Sevastopol laid responsibility on this Russian criminal organization that has been active in Ukraine. I’ve been reading up on the Seven Strong Men for the past half-hour.”

Foley nodded. “Yes, sir. The Russians have been arming and training the Seven Strong Men as well as pro-Russian Ukrainians in the eastern part of the nation. They have created a fifth column out of the Russian mob and these armed rebels.”

Ryan asked, “Is this verifiable?”

Canfield said, “Volodin’s enemies have been trying to tie him definitively to organized crime since he left FSB and started his meteoric rise to the top in the nineties. Everyone thinks he had a lot of help along the way. But he’s kept his nose clean. That said, he’s wiped out and exposed so many gangsters in Russia it’s hard to see how anyone known to us would benefit from supporting him, with the sole exception being Seven Strong Men.”

“It’s an amorphous outfit,” Ryan said, looking down at his notes. “No one knows the identity of the leader of the organization.” He looked up. “Why can’t we figure out who the godfather is?”

Canfield said, “We’ve identified one of their high-ranking capos, he’s working out of a hotel in Kiev. He might even be their number two, but Seven Strong Men’s command structure, as you say, is all but unknown to us. We do believe, and recent events make this even more certain, that Seven Strong Men is now working as a proxy force for FSB in Ukraine.”

“Why?” Ryan asked. “I mean, what’s in it for them?”

“Good question,” said Mary Pat. “I have to suspect there is some sort of quid pro quo with the Kremlin. As in, if the Seven Strong Men help Russia take Ukraine, then Russia will turn a blind eye to Seven Strong Men activities there.”

Jack rubbed his eyes under his glasses. The Russian military, the Russian intelligence services, the Russian mob. They were all after Ukraine, and he knew that if they took Ukraine, it would only encourage them to push farther to the west.

Secretary of Defense Bob Burgess said, “Mr. President, as far as I’m concerned, the quickening of events means one thing. Russia has done all the blackmailing with pipelines and bullying with threats of violence against Ukraine it can do without actually going forward on its threats. They have upped the ante, even made attempts to marginalize the U.S. and NATO in the region.”

Ryan said, “Nothing left for Russia to do but start rolling tanks over the border.”

“Correct. JSOC and CIA assets in the east report significant movements of troops on Russia’s side of the line. Our imagery analysis confirms all that’s needed for the Russians to start rolling is the go order from the Kremlin.”

“So… what do we do, Bob?”

Burgess had been expecting the question. “Mr. President. Douglas MacArthur said every military disaster can be explained in two words: ‘Too late.’ If we were going to stop the invasion with military power, I am afraid we are already too late.”

Ryan said, “I see no way to stop Russia from taking the Crimea. It’s a semiautonomous region already, there are tens of thousands of real Russians and tens of thousands more who were handed out passports in the past year. Volodin can make the case to his people that taking the Crimea is in Russia’s national interests. This is going to happen. With Ukraine’s weak military, there is no preventing it. But I don’t want them moving further west. The more successful Volodin is, the more energetic he will be about aiming for other targets in his region.” Ryan thought for a moment. “We have a few hundred military advisers in country. Most of them are special operations troops. How much impact can they make on this?”

“A great deal. The plans have been drawn up to use existing forces there to assist the Ukrainians. We have Delta teams and Green Berets positioned in forward locations, and some British SAS as well. They all have the capability to communicate directly with Ukrainian Air Force assets. The Brits are on board with us on this. If you give the word, we can institute an operation to begin linking our laser targeting equipment to Ukrainian MiG-29 multirole fighters and Mi-24 attack helicopters. We can serve as a significant force multiplier for their Air Force. With luck, this can blunt the Russian attack.”

“Covertly?”

Burgess nodded. “Our operational plan is structured with an eye toward covert action. Having said that…” Burgess struggled with how to finish the sentence.

President Ryan said, “‘The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft agley.’”

“That’s right, sir.”

“Tell me about the readiness of Russian forces.”

“It’s not good, but it is better than when they attacked Georgia a few years ago. At that time the military was rife with corruption and waste, and it showed on the battlefield. They won the conflict handily, but they did so by virtue of the fact that the Georgian Army was unprepared, and poorly led by civilian leadership.

“When Volodin came into power, it was estimated that twenty percent of Russian military procurement was wasted by corruption, literally stolen by officials. That number is down to next to nothing now. With all the corruption in Russia, it is a significant thing that graft in the military is strictly off-limits.”

Ryan asked, “Can I assume he used some harsh measures to effect this improvement?”

Burgess nodded. “Some people got shot. Not many, but enough to make an impression.”

“So Russia’s military is bad, but they still have numbers.”

“More numbers than Ukraine, anyway. And there is one other thing Russia has.”

“Nukes,” Ryan said.

“Germane to any conversation involving a military conflict with the Russians.”

Ryan leaned forward on the conference table. “If we do manage to slow the Russian advance west, what are the chances they will threaten to go nuclear?”

Burgess said, “If you are asking about them using strategic nukes against us, I will be very clear. Admiral Jorgensen and I have been to several meetings about this recently at the Pentagon. Russia no longer has any ability whatsoever to execute a successful debilitating first strike on the United States. Two-thirds of their nuclear weapons are obsolete.”

Ryan had read all the reports of the meetings Burgess was talking about, so he knew this assessment by DIA and CIA.

Admiral Jorgensen said, “Can they still launch missiles that would get through any defense we have? Yes. Yes, they can. As you know, Russia has a fleet of strategic bombers permanently airborne, something that stopped with the fall of the Soviet Union but started again when Volodin decided it would make him look tough.”

Mary Pat said, “But beyond capability, there is the question of will. These aren’t Islamic fundamentalists looking to martyr themselves. Volodin and his inner circle know that any nuclear attack would mean their own deaths within hours, if not minutes.”

“And tactically?” Ryan asked.

Burgess said, “Volodin would never use a tactical nuke in Ukraine. It would destroy part of what he considers his home soil. He will fight for it tooth and nail, perhaps, but he’s not going to condemn it to nuclear winter.”

Ryan drummed his fingers on the table. “Tell me more about the plans in place for active cooperation between our Partnership for Peace forces in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Air Force.”

Burgess pulled a file out of a folio and held it up. “Operation Red Coal Carpet. It assumes a conventional air and ground attack by Russia into Ukraine for control of the Crimea and the eastern section of the nation. It provides a blueprint for teams of American special operations forces to operate laser targeting equipment to aid Russian jets and helos, not for the purposes of defeating Russia’s invasion force, but rather to keep it occupied as it moves deeper into the interior of the nation. The objective is to stall the attack or slow it enough to where the Russians will suffer debilitating loses while they are still far east of the Dnieper River.”

“Do we have enough operators on the ground there?”

Burgess thought over his answer first, then said, “If we go live with Red Coal Carpet, the U.S. Army will move a company of scout helicopters already serving in NATO into Ukraine, again under the auspices of Partnership for Peace. These helos will be used for laser targeting. A small unit of Rangers will also be added for security at the Joint Operations Center. This will bring American and British forces in the country to somewhere in the neighborhood of four hundred fifty troops.

“I do believe it will be enough for this conflict, for one key reason. We are only there to support the Ukrainian Air Force, and the Russians will, to put it bluntly, kill the Ukrainian Air Force. I’m sorry, I don’t see any other scenario. Our men with their laser designators will have a target-rich environment, but they won’t have enough birds in the sky flying around with air-to-ground ordnance. The Ukrainian helos and strike fighters will be destroyed. I’m afraid putting more men on the ground is not going to help the situation.”

Ryan said, “I’m going to have to let key members of Congress know about this. It’s not exactly within the scope of Partnership for Peace.”

“No, sir, it is not,” Burgess agreed.

Ryan looked at the clock on the wall. “Okay, I’m authorizing Operation Red Coal Carpet, so that if the Russian invasion begins, our forces on the ground will have the authorizations in place to begin operations. Bob, come to me with whatever you need, whenever you need it. Mary Pat and Jay will provide DoD with anything they can, as well.”

“Yes, sir.”

Ryan closed the meeting by saying, “There are four hundred fifty American and British troops in the field who are going to need our support and our prayers in the next few days. Let’s see that they get plenty of both.”