Commander-in-Chief

58

Tatiana Molchanova stood when President Ryan entered. There was real deference there, something she’d displayed little of during the interview. Ryan didn’t know if she knew she’d been outplayed or if her behavior on TV was just an act to stay in the good graces of the Kremlin. He told himself he didn’t have time to think about it. He wasn’t going to change the thinking or the actions of those on state-run media, and it would be ridiculous to waste time trying.

Ryan crossed the room but stayed ten feet from the woman, as if she might be carrying a disease. He found himself more uncomfortable than he expected to be, and he knew he couldn’t show it. He just said, “All right. I’m here and I’m listening, Miss Molchanova.”

Molchanova seemed exceptionally proud and excited to be sent as an emissary between two leaders. With her chin high she said, “President Volodin is proposing a summit. A meeting, in secret. Between himself, yourself, and the leaders of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Only the five of you. President Volodin will be pleased to meet with you in Zurich as soon as you all can arrange travel there. If you prefer another location, he will entertain any ideas you have.”

Ryan said, “I don’t understand. Why is it secret?”

“He says the meeting will concern matters of state involving the future of the region. He assures you he will come prepared to make concessions for the mutual good of all Europe.”

“Matters that involve all of Europe can’t be discussed in front of all of Europe?”

Quickly Ryan saw in the woman’s eyes that she had not been preloaded with answers to his questions. She just said, “I’m sorry, Mr. President. That was the message. Shall I give it to you again?”

Ryan shook his head. “I think I’ve got it. One more question, though. Is he making this offer in secret to the other leaders as well?”

“He asks for you to relay the message to the others.”

Jack just gave a soft nod. He said nothing. Just looked at the wall for a moment.

Molchanova looked uncomfortable now. Finally she said, “Do you have a message you would like me to convey to President Volodin? If so, I promise you it will go from your mouth to his ear. I will not report on this, nor will I tell anyone about your message.”

Ryan looked at her a long time before responding. “Yes.”

She sucked in a small breath of air, her excitement obvious. Nodding, she said, “What is your message, Mr. President?”

“My message is this: Passing offers through a reporter for a secret summit is no way for national leaders to conduct business. I’ve seen more professional statecraft in my dealings with tribesmen in Togo. If he wants to be treated like the leader of a First World nation, he should try acting like one.”

Her eyes widened and her jaw tensed, but she did not reply.

“You have my message, Miss Molchanova.”

“Mr. President, I cannot tell him this.”

Ryan shrugged. “Then don’t.” He gave the woman a little nod, turned on his heel, and left the hotel room.

Arnie Van Damm and Scott Adler were in Ryan’s suite when he arrived five minutes later. “I hope you both heard all that.”

Van Damm said, “Every word. Some response you gave her. She’s probably shaking in her spiked leather boots, trying to figure out how to tell Volodin.”

Ryan took off his suit coat and hung it from a chair, then sat down on a sofa across from the other men. “He wants to talk to certain NATO members. U.S., France, Germany, UK. Clearly about Central Europe. But he doesn’t want Central European nations present.”

Van Damm asked, “Why?”

Jack Ryan knew the answer. “If you’re not at the table, then you’re on the menu.”

Van Damm said, “Holy Christ! He wants to carve up Europe, just like in the Cold War!”

Ryan nodded. “It’s Yalta all over again.” The Yalta Conference at the end of World War II was a meeting between the victors to decide the geographical spoils of war.

Adler said, “You’re not going to Switzerland, are you?”

Ryan said, “Of course not. If he wants to propose a summit he can do it through official channels. If we have one, it will involve delegates designated by NATO. This isn’t 1945, and I’m not Roosevelt.”

Adler said, “But he does think he’s Stalin.”

Ryan said, “He thinks we think he’s Stalin. This whole damn thing was just a bluff to pump up his negotiating power when we sit down at the table.”

Ryan looked out the window at the view over Copenhagen, and he shook his head in disbelief. “What an asshole.”

An hour later Ryan sat in the suite of German president Marion Schöngarth. The two of them ignored the coffee service in front of them, while Ryan relayed his conversation with the journalist from Channel Seven.

When he finished, Schöngarth said, “He is after the redivision of Central Europe, a new redivision, to make up for what Russia lost after the Cold War. Thirty years ago they had no leverage to do anything but grant independence to virtually everyone who demanded it. But now, with Volodin in charge, he thinks he can reclaim some of what Russia lost.”

Ryan agreed.

She added, “He wants the Baltic, and to get it, he is leveraging everything. He is threatening Poland, but Poland is his bargaining chip. It’s as if he is saying, ‘If you give me the Baltic, I will turn my tanks away from Poland.’”

“Exactly right.”

She thought about the deeper ramifications. “But this means it’s all a bluff, correct? Everything he has done till now is just him trying to up the stakes, to frighten the West into a place where we would be more amenable to a deal.”

Ryan shook his head slowly. “Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter if he is bluffing or not. Let’s say he doesn’t want to attack, he wants to win this with hybrid war simply by playing a game of geopolitical chicken with the West. If it fails, if we refuse to get out of his way, there is no way in hell he can ratchet down the saber rattling. He is expecting us to blink, but if we do not blink, he can’t back down. He has arrayed all this potential energy at Lithuania’s doorstep. How can he possibly set the stage for an attack, and then back away from it? He is a volatile individual who is using this volatility to leverage his power. He’s mobilized his troops, he’s brought his ships to combat readiness, and he’s gone on television and announced the Baltic nations are illegal nonstate actors. If we don’t back down, he will have to attack and hope that once the bodies start piling up, the West will lose its appetite for it.”

Schöngarth said, “And it will only lead to one place.” She paused. “We’re about to go to war with Russia.”

“It certainly appears that way.”

She said, “The Russians have five hundred Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad. These missiles have nuclear warhead capability, although we don’t know if they are armed with nuclear devices. The official range of the Iskander is four hundred kilometers, which places it below the five-hundred-kilometer threshold for the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty. But most experts agree the Iskander can reach targets at seven hundred kilometers, with an accuracy of five meters. One decision by Valeri Volodin, and the German parliament can go up in smoke.”

“I know,” Ryan said. “And right now there is a Russian nuclear missile submarine somewhere off the coast of the U.S. Its presence there renders our ballistic missile defense much less likely to be able to track and destroy an incoming Bulava rocket. It’s there because Volodin wanted the United States in the same boat as Europe when he made his deal for a territorial summit.”

The German president said, “Then you are in a similar situation as we are, Mr. President.”

“Similar, but not the same. There is no threat of conventional attack against us like there is here, I recognize this. But I will put every single troop we have in Europe into Lithuania to stop this madman.”

Just then, Arnie Van Damm apologized to the German president and leaned in to Ryan’s ear. “The French president is on the phone. You need to take it.”

Ryan excused himself and stepped over to a table with a phone already off the cradle. “Hello, Henri’.”

The French president said, “Hello, Jack. I wanted to tell you personally. We will stand in the way of the deployment of NATO forces into Lithuania.”

Ryan wasn’t surprised, but he felt defeated. He’d spent most of a week on this goal, and it had failed.

The Frenchman said, “The Baltic States are untenable as NATO nations. When Russia was in NATO, well, yes, it made perfect sense. But with Russia as a threat, and small unprotected nations, all of which more naturally fall under the influence of Russia than they do under Western ideals… well… I am only concerned about Poland. We will make a counterproposal that NATO’s readiness in Poland be upgraded. This will render an attack there less likely.”

Ryan said, “And an attack in Lithuania more likely. We will be telling Volodin the Baltic is his as long as he doesn’t try for Poland.”

The French president said, “This is my decision. I have the backing of several other member states.”

I’m sure you do, Ryan thought. He thanked the president for his call and said good-bye; there was nothing else he could do now.

He stepped back over to the German president, told her the news. In minutes he and his entourage were on their way back to his suite.

They did not speak during the walk, because the halls and elevators had not been declared clean by counterintelligence technicians. But the moment they got back in Ryan’s suite, Adler asked, “What are you going to do now?”

Ryan said, “I’m going to go to Sweden. I want to appeal to non-NATO states to get some support for our actions. Show them we care about their concerns.”

Scott Adler broke in here. “You thought that was a tough crowd. Sweden has all but shut down their military. They aren’t going to want to do anything to upset the apple cart any more than Volodin is already doing. The fact Russia knocked their plane out of the sky has them pissed off, but other than a small but decent air force, they aren’t much of a power anymore.”

“How bad is it?” he asked.

“Sweden has a good air force, but that’s it. Our view of Sweden’s current defense condition is not optimistic.”

“Meaning?”

“Meaning it is our belief that if Sweden decided to begin an aggressive program to build up its military, then in five years it would have the capability to defend itself in place… for one week.”

Ryan said, “So Russia could steam west across the Baltic from Kaliningrad, or south from the North Sea, and they could claim Sweden as their own.”

“At will, Mr. President.”

President Jack Ryan rubbed his eyes under his glasses, pressing hard, as if to stanch the overwhelming frustration. “We’ll go to them and ask for overflight rights. Air base access. Supply support for our Navy in the Baltic. We’ll ask for their air force to support our mission in Lithuania. If we pull the trigger and deploy, then we’ll need all the help we can get.”

“That’s not much, Mr. President.”

“Well, it’s all they have. I’d like to get Sweden into NATO down the road. If they help us now, I think both Sweden and the rest of NATO could see their way forward to allowing this to happen.”