Condition Zebra: The Next War - 2025

Chapter 4

In November of the year 2019, an aging old diplomat, Henry Kissinger, warned that the trade war between the US and China had put the two great nations in ‘the foothills of a Cold War’ that could easily escalate, even over a minor incident, into a conflict worse than the wars of the last century. He was correct….

Admiral William J. Pearson, Royal Navy Command Singapore, was alerted just after 08:00 on the 18th of November. The satellites had seen an alarming congregation of Chinese naval assets in the south China Sea, and they appeared to be heading his way. He wasted no time in calling a war council with the senior fleet officers present.

The Royal Navy presence in Singapore had a long history, a bastion in the east that Churchill called his Pacific Gibraltar. In this history, he had relieved General Percival after his timorous treatment of the situation in Malaya following the Japanese landings, and instead sent a man who would later be called “The Rock of the East,” Sir Bernard Law Montgomery. Under Monty’s generalship, the Japanese Army was fought to a standstill on Singapore, and eventually forced to withdraw. It was only after they abandoned that siege, taking units to bypass Singapore and land on Java, that the British saw their position there as untenable, and retreated to fight the Japanese elsewhere. The Dramatic eruption of Krakatoa soon followed, and in time, Montgomery was recalled to North Africa to join the fight against Rommel.

After the war, the British settled back into their long held nest at Singapore again, roosting at Changi Naval Base with a permanent Far East Squadron. It was composed of the light carriers Illustrious and Invincible, each with a dozen new F-35B’s and numerous helicopters. Three destroyers, including two Daring Class, and ten frigates were in support, along with one older Trafalgar class sub, the lead boat in that group. These fifteen warships held the fort, and for a long time there was no direct threat to Singapore, until the Chinese began to move south.

China had long ago mended fences with Vietnam, gaining access to the harbor at Cam Rahn Bay and the airfields at Da Nang and Tan Son Naht, which were in a perfect position to support all the small outposts they had built on the reef islands. They had also cut elaborate infrastructure deals with the Philippines to gain access to the long archipelagic province island of Palawan, which stretched like a great stone wall between the main islands of Mindoro and Luzon, and Malaysia on the big island of Borneo. Anchored by Taiwan in the north, Chinese outposts and military bases stretched south through the Batanes Islands, to Manila, and across Palawan. There they set up radars, and SAM and SSM sites to hold the outer perimeter of their South China Sea.

By 2025, with the US having to resort to bases it maintain further east on the so called “Second Island Chain,” there was no question as to who really dominated the South China Sea. It was a Chinese lake, seeing 80% of that nation’s commercial traffic pass daily, all mostly coming through the great southern bottleneck of the Strait of Malacca. In that region, the Chinese had then worked to put a cork in that bottle, making great efforts to obtain a presence in the Riau Archipelago. They negotiated with Indonesia to get basing rights at Ranai AFB on the main island there, and that bastion formed their southern anchor.

“Gentlemen,” said Admiral Pearson. “We have a situation developing. It seems the Chinese have moved strong naval elements south, mustering here, near the Island of Riau. Royal Navy Intelligence is of the opinion that this may be a prelude to, or the advanced stages of, an operation aimed at Singapore. We all know that most everything they ship into China passes within eight miles of our watch here. It’s as if every ship coming to Britain had to check in at Shanghai first. We are, and have been, the gatekeepers of the Malacca Strait since Sir Stanford Raffles established a port here in 1818. Yet I will note that in the 150 odd souls that first established his shore party here, 30 were Chinese.”

It was commerce that brought the British to Singapore, for all the traffic from British India passed through the Strait of Malacca, including the opium traffic to China. And it was commerce that kept Britain there for the next two centuries. Aside from a temporary eviction by the Japanese, Britain had sat there, inviolate, for over 200 years.

“I don’t have to tell anyone here just how important this watch is,” said Pearson. “As things have already gone to hammers and tongs with the Chinese in the Med, Whale Island has put us on a full alert war footing. We are to sortie this morning and maintain a strong fleet presence in the Natuna Sea, east of Singapore, and we are to prevent any advance or passage of Chinese naval forces in those waters. After Malta, gentlemen, I don’t have to tell you things may get disagreeable rather soon. This is a vital maritime outpost, and one the Chinese will dearly want to dominate. We simply must not let that happen. Questions?”

One man raised his hand, Captain James Albert Snow of HMS Illustrious. “Sir, might we expect help from the UK soon?”

“Admiral Wells has brought the entire Mediterranean Squadron south to Durban, and with Prince of Wales. But that fleet is presently 5000 miles away. I’m told Queen Elizabeth is putting out to sea, but gentlemen, any force from the UK is between thirteen and sixteen thousand miles away from us as we speak here. So we mustn’t count on that in the foreseeable future. More to the point, we do have Ark Royal, and frigates Brazen and Kenya at Diego Garcia, but that force has been part of the Anglo-American TF there, and Whale Island has tasked it for a potential move north to Oman. The situation in the Middle East is presently what this is all about. It’s why Admiral Wells is entering the Indian Ocean. Sea control, gentlemen, sea control. We cannot move forces necessary to deter Iraq unless we first control the seas that will carry them there. In that instance, here at Singapore, we’re on our own.”

“What about the Aussies, sir?”

“Ah yes, our friends from Down Under are with us, but they’ll be huddling on the scrimmage line with the Yanks at the moment. The US carrier Roosevelt is at Darwin, and if we do get any help, that’s where it will come from. Until then, we put out to sea this morning, standing to, and we’ll show the flag proudly. If they see us in strength, we just might dissuade them from any real move on the Strait of Malacca. Anyone else?”

There were no further questions.

“Very well, go with God, gentlemen, and take King and country along in your thoughts as well. Remember Malta.”

Admiral Wu Jinlong was a careful man, particularly when he was now facing battle. He had received his orders days ago from South Seas Commander, Admiral Yang Kai Yong, and he knew this was a most important mission. Thus far, the war was going according to plan, but with mixed results. The operations aimed at the Ryukyu Islands had taken the enemy by surprise, and led to the swift occupation of all planned objectives. The first Island Chain was now completely under the control of the Chinese Navy.

Then the thrust towards Iwo Jima had been parried by the Americans, and with the loss of the big fleet carrier Haishen. That was an embarrassing defeat, he knew, though he could not ever characterize it that way to other fleet officers.

He had subsequently learned that it was a Siberian ship that had sunk Haishen, which raised more than one eyebrow in the General Staff, for no one knew this ship even existed! A few heads would roll in the Naval Intelligence Division, for how could the Siberians hide a ship that size? It was therefore determined that this ship had to have been built by the Soviet Union, and then sold to Siberia, but this remained an inexcusable and unaccountable intelligence lapse. That it was followed soon after by the surprise attack of the Siberian Army across the Amur River was salt in the wounds.

Yet that flood tide has now become a stagnant pool, thought the Admiral, a matter for the Army to worry over. That said, we have been forced to relinquish Haishenwei, Vladivostok, and that clearly was not part of the general war plan. No matter, we rendered that port useless to the enemy, and our Korean ports still allow us to project power throughout the Beihai region.

The Siberians… Always a problem, he mused, and then turned his thoughts to the most recent engagements. Operation Wildfire in the Med had been a great success, in spite of inevitable losses. The fleet there has disrupted commercial traffic from Gibraltar to Suez, destroyed the British bastion at Malta, and then it made a well-coordinated exit through Suez and the Red Sea to reinforce the Indian Ocean. All our West African assets have been withdrawn there as well, for the Indian Ocean will surely be a decisive battle zone in the days ahead.

And that is where I am going.

The Admiral was a determined man. His given name, Jinlong, meant “Golden Dragon,” and he was very pleased when the navy named one of its newest Type 055 destroyers by that same name.

Yes, he thought, we have moved a considerable portion of our South Seas Fleet under my command for operation Dongmen, the Eastern Gate. That is as good a name for Singapore as any. This is far more significant than my earlier operation with the Thunder Gods. There I was largely in a supporting role for the invasion of the Ryukyus, here I become the tip of the spear. Do we have the strength to prevail?

He ran down the list in his mind. He had his flagship, Zhendong, the only carrier that could be spared. In support, there were twenty more fighting ships, which included six in the squadron from Viet Nam. That group makes up the bulk of our destroyers, but can they fight? Those ships were all acquired from the French, and Viet Nam is an odd bridge between east and west. They maintained good relations with their old colonial masters, and now they have been wise enough to forsake their enmity with China and become our ally.

Will they fight?

We shall soon see. If not, I still have five destroyers, including two of the new Type 055’s. The rest are frigates, twelve in all, and then there are three submarines. Will it be enough? Will I have enough air cover to protect the invasion group?

There were many questions in Admiral Wu’s mind, for all of this was a great unknown. This initial mission with the Thunder Gods had been the first time any of the ships and crews under his command had been in combat. Now he was sent to engage the Royal Navy, and their reputation cast a long shadow over his thoughts, which he tried to dispel.

They are new to war here as well, he told himself. Yes, they may have experienced officers and sailors, but Great Britain has not fought naval engagements since the last war… until we faced them in Operation Wildfire. What did they do? We destroyed Malta, but for that, we have abandoned the entire North African Coalition. All our bases there were left unguarded, Oran, Algiers, Bizerte, Tunis, Sfax, Benghazi. Egypt was the only place we held firm, but that was with ground contingents and air units, not naval assets. Then the Royal Navy hounded us out of the Atlantic, and chased us from all our West African bases. The General Staff says this was all in the plan, but I think otherwise.

We could not hold….

That much is patently clear to me. We could not hold. So now I face the entire British Far East Fleet, and with the Americans dangerously close at Darwin. This will be a decisive engagement, and I must not fail. China needs a great victory here, but can I deliver it?

Air support will be a concern. Cam Rahn Bay is 600 miles from Singapore, so fighters there can only cover our initial move south. The same can be said for our forces at Miri airfield in Malaysia, also 600 miles from Singapore. I must then rely on our base at Ranai, with 30 fighters, including 18 J-20’s. To these, Zhendong adds my superb squadrons of J-31’s—25 more excellent stealthy fighters to confound the British. Let us see what they can do.

“Admiral, sir, we have picked up enemy fighters!”

“Where?”

“About 75 miles northeast of their naval forces.”

“Of course,” said Wu Jinlong. “They have carriers, and that is undoubtedly a combat air patrol. Order our J-20’s to destroy them.”

That patrol was a pair of F-35’s off the light carrier Invincible, and their first order of business that day was to get after the Chinese AEW plane, a KJ-200 orbiting about 70 miles south of the main island of Riau. Unseen by the Chinese radars, they would move into range and put a pair of meteors out after the plane, Britain’s long range lance, with a 75 mile range. Yet that flight had not seen three Chinese J-20’s off Ranai AFB, and the moment they fired they were detected. This quickly saw them come under attack by the best missiles the Chinese had, the PL-15.

In the ensuing duel, each side would lose two planes, and when two more F-35’s off the Illustrious came charging in to the fray, the missile fire coming from a different direction was enough to convince the last surviving Chinese pilot he was outgunned. The J-20 turned and went to a thousand knots, running for home, but the brief engagement had been the tripwire on the impending battle. Soon more fighters were revving up their engines on both sides, roaring off the decks of the three carriers involved.

Aboard HMS Invincible, Captain Henry Hargood was a 30 year veteran, all his time spent with the carriers. He had been among the most vocal supporters of Britain’s carrier fleet, arguing that these smaller ships could provide valuable fleet support in far off outposts where a big deck carrier was not present. He liked to think that he had a good deal to do with the fact that Illustrious and Invincible were still afloat, when Parliament had tried to sell or scrap them twice in the last ten years. He fought the good fight to save them, and now his ships had to return that favor.

“We’ve got a fairly good look at them, sir,” said his Number One, Commander Avery Russell. “This destroyer screen here is all reading as French Aquitaine Class ships.”

“The Vietnamese,” said Hargood. “So they want in on this argument as well. Where’s the Chinese carrier?”

“Here sir, about 20 miles northwest of the main island, and 40 miles behind that destroyer screen, about 180 miles out.”

“Well beyond our SSM range at the moment.”

“Except for frigates Newcastle and Sheffield, sir. They have the new American LRASM, 24 each. That’s our main punch with any range. In fact, those frigates hit harder than any of our destroyers.”

“Indeed,” said Hargood. “Might we try for an early round knockout?”

“We might, sir, but there are a lot of defending assets out there, and when those frigates have their say, then we’ll have to hold our peace until the range closes to within 100 miles.”

The Captain nodded. “At the moment, we’ve got to see if we can get air superiority out here. It’s a bit of a draw with this first butting of the heads. Let’s get more fighters up, Mister Russell.”

“Aye sir.”

Chapter 5

This was not going to be a typical carrier duel, like the many engagements that had been fought in the previous war. The planes on either side actually had very limited ability to put harm on enemy ships at sea, and in fact, most of the carrier magazines were filled with gravity bombs in various sizes, all requiring the delivering aircraft to penetrate inside 10 to 15 miles, or less. The Chinese did have an extended range 500 pound glide bomb that could be released 30 miles out against land targets, and the British had their SPEAR light attack munition, but beyond that, any strike by the aircraft aimed at ships would have to run a terrible gauntlet of SAM fire to get in close enough to drop those bombs.

So the unmanned anti-ship missiles would act in place of the fighter bombers of WWII, and their range would figure prominently in how this battle would unfold. The carriers were largely there to contest the airspace, with strike missions being a secondary role if that could be achieved. The Chinese knew this, which is why some ships were also armed with land attack cruise missiles they intended to use against enemy airfields. The six Vietnamese destroyers all carried the French SCALP, their version of the British Storm Shadow.

A little after 13:00, the air duel continued as each side got more fighters up. The Chinese threw the first punch, jabbing at the Merlin AEW Crow’s nest twice before they were able to knock it down with a J-31. This plane was then set upon by a flight of F-35’s. Two of the stealthy Falcon Eagles were knocked down, but not before the Chinese had those PL-15’s in the air. Then three J-20’s came into the fight on another vector and things really began to heat up. The planes off Invincible had a very rough go in the second round, with the entire flight of three shot down in exchange for only one Chinese J-20.

Those off Illustrious carried on, firing four Meteors at a pair of J-31’s only to see them all evaded, the enemy planes turning and then firing an angry quiver of PL-15’s in reprisal. Both sides were stealthy, but the missiles were, in the end, better than the planes if a decent target lock could be resolved.

Captain Hargood was becoming concerned. He was now down to just six ready fighters, but gave orders to send up another flight of three. This time, they linked up with three planes off Illustrious, and the British tried a new tactic. The Chinese fighters were stealthy enough that the F-35’s had to go to active radar to engage and get locks, but that allowed other enemy planes, as yet unseen, to then rush in and counterattack. This time the British flights of three each detached a single fighter, which veered off and then went to active radar to find the enemy. Once acquired, this information was immediately shared with the remaining F-35’s, which could then stalk them with radars passive while still getting target locks from the scouting plane.

The result was three quick kills on a flight of J-20’s, evening the score for the lopsided duel fought ten minutes earlier. The tactic worked so well, that the British swept the board, getting those three J-20’s and another three J-31’s without losing a single plane. As the wind began to smear the missile trails, the fighters, low on darts, began to break off and return to their bases. Then, at 14:30, the battle suddenly took a different turn. The forward screen of six Vietnamese destroyers all began to fire….

The British radar screens suddenly displayed a wide front of contacts, like a great storm building beyond the horizon. That was quite literally true, for all six Vietnamese destroyers were equipped with the French SCALP attack cruise missile, a weapon that was, in fact, identical to the British Storm Shadow. In the heat of that moment, it was first assumed that this was a big cruise missile attack aimed at the ships, so the Captains ordered weapons free, and the British defensive SAM’s charged out to give battle.

As the storm front swept over the fleet, it was soon determined that they were not the targets. About 40 enemy missiles had been tracked, all on different attack vectors instead of the normal missile trains as they made their approach. This made the defense more difficult, because the SAM fire could not be concentrated at a single point. So Asters and Sea Darts were flying everywhere, and their contrails painted a wild pasta plate in the blue sky as the speedy SAM’s chased the stealthy cruise missiles across a front that was over 60 miles wide. In the end, only 18 SCALP’s got through, continuing their sedate course towards Singapore.

“Bloody Storm Shadows,” said Captain Hargood. “They’re going to try a repeat performance on Singapore, just like they did at Malta.”

“Ironic, sir, isn’t it? Here we are fighting off our own missiles.”

“Well, we can’t just sit here and let them fire at will. Let’s get after them. Order the fleet to engage with ordnance in range.”

“Aye sir.”

The alarms sounded, decks clearing for SSM fire, and soon the British were sending a mix of Harpoons, Naval Strike Missiles, and LRASM’s back at the enemy destroyers. As they began to fire, the SCALP attack had finally reached its target on Singapore, not the harbor, but the big airfield at Changi East. The eighteen missiles came in low, with penetrating BROACH warheads to get through hardened targets and smash runways and tarmacs. Several planes hosted in open parking were hit, most notably the two big Poseidon P-8 ASW patrol planes, which went up in spectacular explosions. An F-35, a Typhoon, and a Wildcat helo were also smashed, and the attack left fires all over the airfield, including the main control tower, which had taken a severe direct hit.

Yet the British counterstrike was out to even the score. Their SSM’s surged in, closing the 60 mile range to the nearest enemy ships in little time. The strike would result in two good hits, one missile plowing into the destroyer Mekong, which would sink that ship within minutes, and another striking DDG Hai Phong. The three ships in the second line of that formation, Saigon, Da Nang, and Hanoi, now fired off the last of their SSM’s, a salvo of 16 Exocets aimed at TF Illustrious. This attack was now supported by fire from the distant island of Riau, where the Chinese had deployed batteries of SSM with the YJ-12, a high speed demon that had been copied from a Soviet air launched cruise missile that had crashed in the first Sino-Siberian war. Then it was adapted for land and sea based usage.

Captain Snow on Illustrious had been overseeing the launch of another four F-35’s when the missile warning sounded. It was time for the Asters again, and they began to leap off the forward decks, engaging the incoming strike in a tense battle that rolled inside the five mile range mark before it was finally defeated. HMS Invincible, cruising about 15 miles to the southeast with her escorts, also joined in that action.

“Sir,” came the warning. “A second group of Exocets just broke the horizon. Invincible is already targeting.”

“Let’s get to it,” said Snow. He had been relying on the air defense destroyer Lookout, a Flight II Daring Class ship, but now learned they had just expended the last of their SAM ordnance repelling those Exocets. The defense was now going to be up to the Sea Ceptors on the frigates, which had a 15 mile range.

The Captain watched as five Asters came up from the southeast to get the first four missiles in that attack, not knowing that they were the last available to destroyer Loyal in the Invincible group. The long engagement against those 40 SCALP/Storm Shadows had been very costly in terms of the SAM count. As the last Exocet was blasted from the sky in a bright yellow ball of fire, the alarms wailed again. Another train of missiles had just broken the horizon, only these were coming much faster, at 1450 knots as opposed to the slow approach of the Exocets.

The YJ-12’s were burning their way in, right down on the water at 30 feet elevation. Targeting radars and computers on every ship grappled with them for a good firing solution, and then the Captain saw the Type 23 Class frigate Portland begin to fire its Sea Ceptors. There was no longer any fire coming from the southeast, and Snow instinctively realized they didn’t have the range—the Asters were all gone….

The new Type 23B Trinidad and the Type 26 Sheffield now joined the action, as the first of the enemy missiles penetrated inside the two mile mark. They got the first two, but the third missile broke through and came lancing into Illustrious, which was the primary target of this attack. There came a tremendous explosion, the ship shuddering with the terrible impact. Three fully fueled and armed F-35’s, a Merlin, and two Wildcats were on the flight deck, and the resulting shrapnel and shock tore at them, igniting a major fire on deck. One F-35 blew up, the fire engulfing the entire plane. A horrified flight service crewman on deck saw the pilot thrown from the wrecked fighter, his body devoured by flames. But the missile had come in so low that it tore into the ship’s guts, opening the hull to the sea, and severe flooding was underway at the same time.

In they came, nine more sea demons at breakneck speed. The Sea Ceptors and guns got three, and chaff spoofed a fourth, but the next missile struck Illustrious again, dooming the light carrier to a fiery death. Captain Snow was thrown to the deck with that second hit, which came in just below the island. Fire raged up, the bridge windows shattered, and heavy black smoke rolled in.

“All hands! Abandon ship!” came the call, and it was the last thing the Captain would say on this earth. He would die there on the bridge, in spite of a gallant effort by the crew to save him. Two more missiles swept through the heavy smoke, finding no target as Illustrious keeled over and began to sink. The last found destroyer Lookout, setting her torpedo mounts off in another big explosion, and then igniting the helicopter magazine aft. That ship would soon be dead in the water, and that would leave the three hapless frigates with the unenviable job of trying to recover the survivors.

Aboard HMS Invincible, Captain Hargood was peering through his field glasses when he saw the big explosion broil up on the horizon. Another followed soon after, and he knew that Captain Snow’s TF had taken heavy hits. There was silence on the bridge for some time, until a signalman turned to the Captain, his face grim.

“It’s Illustrious, sir. She’s going under, and Lookout right along with her….”

“Damn,” said Hargood.

There had been just over 1000 officers and crew on Illustrious, and another 200 on the Lookout. The frigates could not hope to even get as many as 100 out of the water, but close at hand, cruising about 35 miles to the southwest, TF Ocean was centered on that big amphibious assault ship, and with several more frigates.

The loss of Illustrious now placed the burden of the tactical command on Captain Hargood. Admiral Pearson, was aboard HMS Ocean, and given this setback, Hargood decided to request further orders. Speaking on the secure radio channel, the two men would soon discuss the gloomy situation they were now facing.

“Just got the signal,” said Pearson. “We’re losing Illustrious.”

“I’m afraid so, sir, and there may be hundreds of men in the water out there now. The frigates can’t handle that, and that group reports they have just 24 Sea Ceptors left between the three ships. Lookout is on fire, and out of the action. I’m afraid we’ll lose her as well, sir.”

“Damn bloody business,” said Pearson. “And the enemy?”

“Well sir, we were just engaging their forward screen, a group of six destroyers. We put one under, damaged a second, and the whole lot has turned to break off to the north, but we have contacts on five more enemy surface groups out there. This thing is just getting started, and We haven’t a single Aster left on Loyal. It’s all on the frigates now.”

The Admiral knew his fleet was in a bad situation. “Captain, I think it best if we withdraw towards Singapore. The RSN has sortied from Tuas Naval Base with the bulk of their fleet. So your orders are to fall back on home port, and try to keep out of range. The Chinese are getting close, about 100 miles out, and we believe they have most of their missile strength limited to that range at the moment, except for the two Type 055’s. You’ll come under further attack, but we need to open the range.”

“What about those men in the water out there, sir?”

“We’re sending every helicopter we have. Get the frigates out of there. Understand? Turn Invincible immediately.”

“Aye sir.”

Captain Hargood gave those orders, and the ships began to turn, but the Admiral’s prediction had been accurate. Off to the northeast, safe from all harm at a range of 215 miles, the South Seas detachment was being led by the Type 052D class destroyer Changsha, and it was carrying the deadly YJ-18, with the range to strike. Eight of sixteen missiles were fired at Invincible as the British ships turned, and the first group of four came in so fast at 1900 knots that the British Sea Ceptors could simply not engage. That spelled the end for Type 26 Class frigate Newcastle, struck amidships with a fatal blow by the first group of four enemy Sizzlers.

As there were no Asters remaining on Loyal, the frigates were simply targets, having only their close in guns for any defense. Destroyer Liverpool was the only ship that could engage, being an older Type 42 class with the Sea Dart. As the second group of four Sizzlers came in, it began to fire, catching one of the speedy Vampires and splashing it into the sea. A second was spoofed by a bloom of chaff from Loyal, and the last two were taken down at very close range by the weight of all the Gatling guns.

The Royal Navy had yet to really come to grips with the weight of the Chinese Fleet, but by 16:00, the retreat to Singapore was on.

Aboard the carrier Zhendong, Admiral Wu Jinlong was wrapped in stoic calm. His mind was on other things—he had sunk an aircraft carrier! In truth, none of his ships accomplished that feat, the killing missiles had come from the land-based TEL on Riau Island, firing YJ-12’s, but he was overall theater Commander, and he would be more than happy to take credit for the kill.

The Vietnamese destroyers fought well, he thought. They saw half their flotilla sunk or damaged, but there presence in the vanguard was decisive. The British wasted so many missiles trying to knock down the land attack cruise missiles, that I now believe they are easy prey for my cruise missiles. They know this as well, which is why they now withdraw so we cannot close the range and overwhelm them. At present, only a few of my ships have the range to engage them now. As per earlier reports from the action in the Med, our YJ-18 is proving to be our most effective missile. The enemy close range defense missiles are unable to stop it, and I now have 40 of those demons available, all within striking range.

It is time to turn this early advantage we have obtained into a crushing defeat for the enemy. I will order my destroyers to fire, but first we must refresh the locations of the enemy ships. That is work for Zhendong….

Chapter 6

DDG Changshan still had eight more YJ-18’s, cruising far to the east off the jutting cape of Borneo as it reached out towards the Riau Islands. That ship would target the last enemy carrier and its escorts, selecting two ships in that group. Further north, in the support group behind Zhendong, the Type 052D destroyer Hefei had 16 Sizzlers in its VLS cells, and was ordered to target the three British frigates that were now withdrawing from the wreck of Illustrious at high speed.

Let us see if we can draw blood with those claws, thought Admiral Wu Jinlong. I will launch four J-31’s to find and paint the targets. Then we will see what our missiles do before I make a decision on whether or not to fire a second salvo.

The attack on the frigates would see the first four missiles find and kill Sheffield, even after three of the four Vampires were defeated by chaff and guns. Two more groups came on in a tight formation of four missiles each. About 25 miles out, they went into their high speed terminal run, accelerating rapidly to 1900 knots. Within minutes, they would find and kill both Portland and Trinidad, nothing more than helpless targets at sea against the Sizzlers, with no missile that could catch the Vampires. All three ships would sink within minutes, putting over 500 more men and women in the sea, and not long after, DDG Lookout, which had been foundering, would take yet another hit by a YJ-83, and sink for good. Illustrious and all her escorts were gone….

Advantage has been forged into victory, thought Admiral Wu. The enemy setback has now become defeat, and if I press them, I can make this even worse—a disaster at sea that will make headlines all across the globe. So now I will show the world how a Chinese carrier can fight.

If it had not been for the last Sampson Radar on HMS Loyal, the stealthy J-31’s might not have been seen until it was too late. But the superb radar system saw what was coming, and 70 miles out. The Chinese had launched a formation of nine fighters, and they were coming right for HMS Invincible.

“A big fighter sweep,” said Commander Russell.

“Perhaps,” said Captain Hargood. “They don’t want out F-35s out there to pick off their cruise missiles. Just the same…. I’ve got a tickle in me tooth about this one. It could be a strike mission with them all lumped together like that. Probably why we picked them up so far out. Launch the ready CAP, and tell them to engage those planes at once!”

The Captain’s tooth had not failed him. The contact bogies were a squadron of nine J-31’s, each carrying a pair of YJ-91 anti-radiation missiles with a long 70 mile range. They would not have to go far before they fired them, and it was just happenstance that they were spotted just as they began to reach their release point.

Three British F-35’s had roared off the deck, climbing on afterburners to get into the fight. They were able to get target locks on the J-31’s, and loosed their Meteor missiles at long range, but the Chinese planes were just too slippery, the target locks too imprecise. Not one hit was scored. Throughout the battle, the British pilots had complained that their Meteors were not tracking true against the J-31’s. They handled the bigger J-20 easily enough, getting many kills on that plane, but the small, agile J-31 had evaded 80% of the missiles fired, a very good defensive performance, which made the plane quite deadly when it countered with its PL-15’s.

The F-35’s had failed, and now the Chinese fighters were taking aim at HMS Invincible. Loyal was empty, but Type 42 class destroyer Liverpool and Type 23 class frigate Marlborough were still in escort. Sixty miles out, the fighters released their ordnance, well beyond the range of the Sea Darts and Sea Ceptors, and then turned for home. Seconds later, 18 enemy missiles were in the air, boring in on the British task force.

“Damn,” said Hargood. “Without a Daring class destroyer at the ready, we’re sitting ducks out here.”

“We’ll just have to get those Vampires when they get closer sir,” said Russell, but that would not be as easy as it sounded. Sea Dart was slow, an older system that had too much lag time as it reloaded missiles onto the firing rails from its magazine after each shot.

At 18:36, with darkness settling over the sea, Invincible took its first hit, the 90Kg warhead destroying an F-35 parked on the flight deck. The resulting explosion took out a Phalanx gun and another 20mm Oerlikon, the shrapnel flaying sensors all over the islands. Systems were down everywhere, though the ship was in no danger of sinking, with no flooding. It was as if a hail of steel marbles had been thrown at the carrier, and for all intents and purposes, HMS Invincible was out of action. She had no ready planes, and was now nothing more than an inviting target.

Captain Hargood looked over his shoulder and also saw the DDG Loyal had been struck, and soon got the report that they had minor flooding.

“Mister Russell,” he said grimly. “We’re in rather desperate need of some air cover at the moment, and for a carrier, that’s rather embarrassing. See what you can do about it.”

“Right sir, but we’ve got help on the sea, sir. Republic of Singapore frigates are out in force—group of six will be breaking our horizon in a few minutes.”

“Ah, friends in need,” said Hargood. “Layfayette Class?”

“Yes sir, and data log shows they’ll be bringing 48 Harpoons and better yet, 192 Aster 15’s.”

“God knows we can use the Sea Vipers. Good show. Let’s see if we can get Invincible back to port safely. Signal Loyal that we need to press on, but help is on the way.”

“Sir… What will become of the tankers?”

Commander Russel was speaking of the huge herd of commercial shipping that was hove to just off the southern coast of Singapore. Ships had taken refuge at any friendly port. And at that moment there were just over 210 tankers and another 40 odd commercial carriers riding at anchor offshore, and another 50 already hugging every available berthing spot at Singapore. Further up the strait to the northwest, there were another 100 commercial ships in and around the smaller port of Klang, and at least100 more navigating the strait between that point and Banda Aceh. That was a massive maritime prize, with billions in valuable oil and cargo, and it was now all within a hundred miles of the Chinese South Seas Fleet.

Admiral Wu Jinlong was quite pleased. He knew his immediate superior, Admiral Zheng Bao, would be very pleased with the onset of this campaign, but he was far from finished here. The enemy had been engaged and driven back, but he knew the British would consolidate at Singapore, and gain support from the small but capable navy of that country. There was still much to be done.

His J-31’s had done well, sinking their talons into the last enemy carrier, and crippling another British destroyer. So he sent an order to the frigate Yunchen to put two more missiles on it. A pair of YJ-83’s went out, the Eagle Strike 83 according to the Chinese, a missile mounted on many frigates classes. It’s range was limited to about 100 miles, and its warhead was relatively small at 190Kgs, which explained why Loyal was able to take both those punches in the gut and still stay on its feet.

It was a brave stand. The British destroyer had no SAMs left, and now fired off its last four SSM’s, like a boxer flailing in the late rounds, battered and bruised. The ship was all but wrecked above the water line, though the Mk141 missile bays had not been damaged. It had major flooding and the Captain was already ordering personnel into boats and rafts, but Loyal to the last, the destroyer was still fighting. The missiles would catch her pursuers by surprise.

The Type 056 corvette Suqian had been up front in a group of three ships, but reported having problems with their radar. As it happened, just as the attack came in, there was a power outage on the frigate. The lights winked, went out. Red emergency lights appeared, then the main power sputtered back on again, but the radars had lost sight of anything they had been tracking.

The ship that had started the fight, Yuncheng, was 14 miles behind Suqian, and it fired four HQ-16 SAM’s, but they would get to the scene too late. Suqian was struck and killed, with multiple hits, and would sink a little after 20:00. Angered when they saw their comrades burning, the third ship in the group, corvette Guangyuan, fired two more Eagle Strike missiles, intending to finish the British destroyer off once and for all. At 20:10, just as the main body of the Singapore Naval contingent enroute to Loyal came in sight, the crews saw the horizon light up with fire, and they knew they were too late.

The Royal Navy beaten and driven to the corner, it was now the Republic of Singapore Navy, or the RSN, that was standing to and forming a rearguard. A flight of six F-15’s were flying CAP, and the heart of the fleet, those six frigates, was still advancing to aid the sinking British destroyer. Yet their role now was strictly defensive, because the only harm they could put on the enemy would have to come from the Harpoon missiles they were carrying—and they were still out of range.

While all the frigates were relatively new, commissioned between 2007 and 2009, they had not been given a modern offensive weapon. In truth, it was never thought that they would attempt to fight a major adversary like China, and for any scrap that might occur in the constricted waters around Singapore, the Harpoon would certainly do the job—but not here, not now.

Admiral Wu Jinlong was still in hot pursuit, his ships like a pack of marauding hyenas out after the wounded beasts ahead. Now he ordered the Type 052 destroyer Hefei to use four of its YJ-18 Sizzlers to see if they could reach and hurt the retreating British carrier. These fired at 20:40, making their way on a path north of the target at 530 knots, but programmed to swing south and accelerate to 1900 knots when they got close. Invincible was alone, following her escorts destroyer Liverpool and frigate Marborough, which were eight miles ahead. But Captain Hargood knew he had six RSN Frigates carrying 192 Aster-15’s behind him, and was not concerned.

His problem now was the fact that the Chinese had seen the frigates, and plotted an attack path that would take those four missiles well to the north, and out of any harm’s way. That might have spelled the end for Invincible, but it was the presence of those F-15 Eagles that would make all the difference. They had sparred earlier with a pair of Chinese J-31’s, losing two of the six planes and seeing the enemy slip away for its home deck with impunity. But this time the remaining four planes were ready when those Sizzlers made their approach. They saw them on radar, and swooped down like the great birds of prey they were, putting their AIM-120’s into the air. This missiles were so good, that they found and killed all four Sizzlers before they began their high speed terminal run. Invincible would live out that hour, and might just survive the long day.

At 22:00 the three British ships would enter the eastern mouth of the Strait of Malacca, a chastened and dispirited lot. As they turned for the harbor at Changi, their thoughts were heavy with the loss of so many ships and crewmen. Illustrious, Lookout and Loyal were gone, along with frigates Sheffield, Newcastle, Portland and Trinidad. The Royal Navy had not suffered such a loss since the Battle for the Falkland Islands, where six ships went down in that campaign, including one HMS Sheffield, which was a Type 42 Class Destroyer at the time.

Only the support group with Admiral Pearson on HMS Ocean had been unscathed. It still had three frigates in attendance, (Battleaxe, Singapore, and Malaya ), making a total of six surface warships remaining in the British Far East Fleet. While disaster had been averted, it was still a stinging defeat, and the Chinese South Seas Fleet was still advancing.

So the enemy army is fleeing for the refuge of their castle walls, thought Wu Jinlong. Unfortunately, I have only 36 missiles remaining on my destroyers with the range to strike them now. All my remaining SSM’s are with the frigates, the YJ-83’s, with a more limited range. Yet they are getting close. Soon I will be able to make a combined strike. Singapore’s navy has also sortied, but they pose little offensive threat. On defense, however, those frigates will be able to throw up a wall of SAM fire that could seriously degrade my attack. I have a total of 68 YJ-83’s, and with those 36 longer range missiles, my offensive strength now sits at 104 SSM’s, and anything more I can send with my J-31’s.

But the River God is coming… Yes, the River God, another of our fine Type 055 destroyers, and that TF will bring 64 more missiles to this argument. It was stationed in the Bay of Bengal, and given my success here, the General Staff decided to move it into the Strait of Malacca from the west to support my battle. That force raises my offensive strength to 168, and I think that will be enough to prevail and complete this victory. By midnight, we should be in position to attack, but I must wait until all my ships are in range.

That time was very near, and by 01:00 on the 19th of November, orders were given for all ships in range to strike their assigned targets. The two sides had exchanged inconsequential air strike in the last minutes of the 18th, with neither side able to get good target locks with the anti-radiation missiles they had been carrying. Ships running in EMCON mode offered nothing for the missiles to find and home in on, and so the Admiral was convinced he had to use his cruise missiles to achieve the decisive result he was hoping for.

By this time, Captain Hargood and his escorts had reached the port at Changi Harbor. The Singapore Strait itself was now being defended by the escorts from Admiral Pearson’s TF Ocean, when that ship and other fleet support vessels also took refuge in Changi Harbor. This left the British frigates Battleaxe, Malaya, and Singapore to join with the RSN frigates, four still in action, and two withdrawing due to damage suffered in the air exchanges earlier.

The opening salvo of 40 missiles was soon clouding up the sea as the missiles fired, tipped over, and turned on their assigned headings. They would all take varied routes, but inevitably converge on the mouth of the strait, where the frigates stood in lines like soldiers on a battlefield, ready to volley fire with SAM’s. The RSN ships all had the Aster 15, and it would get many kills as the attack began, the missiles screaming in, SAM’s leaping off the decks of the frigates to chase them down. Of the 40 Zulus that came charging in, all but four would die, and those fearless survivors, all the speedy YJ-18’s off the Chinese destroyers, would press through that thick defensive fire and score hits.

Frigates Singapore, Tenacious, and Formidable would be skewered by those missiles and die, and another RSN ship, the Intrepid was damaged and dead in the water. A Harpoon counterstrike was aimed at the Chinese TF Subi, and it was able to even the odds a bit, hitting and sinking corvette Hanzhong, and more importantly, the 052D class DDG Yinchuan was also damaged so badly that it would sink within the hour.

The missiles on both sides, of every kind, were slowly running out. This was what made the kill count rise so dramatically in those hours around midnight. Ships without SAM’s in the VLS bays were defenseless, and with each salvo fired by either side, the offensive power diminished. The battle was simply burning itself out.

What had happened here? In the twelve hour duel, the Chinese had sunk or damaged 60% of the British Far East Fleet, and put the RAF airbase at Changi out of commission. But what were the Chinese really trying to do? It was inconceivable that they would want to see the Strait of Malacca closed, and equally dubious to think they could ever control it. They certainly could not land forces on Singapore Island itself, which had three full divisions mustered and ready for battle. Somehow, in some equation being drawn out at the Naval General Staff HQ, the purpose of the battle was only to do what it actually accomplished—to so attrite the Royal Navy forces here that they could not offer meaningful resistance against any future Chinese operation on this scale. That was coming.

Perseverance, thought Wu Jinlong. Water always prevails over stone, as long as it perseveres….