Condition Zebra: The Next War - 2025

Chapter 13

Admiral Sun Wei had called for more air support, and four J-20’s had sucked their drop tanks dry to get out nearly 900 miles. As he had done before, he could use them to find the British ships, but the planes could not linger very long before needing to turn for home. They might also run afoul of unseen enemy fighters, as the first two brave pilots who died hours earlier. This time, no KJ-200 followed the J-20’s, as only one remained at Mombasa, and the Air Force refused to release it for operations.

In spite of his clear victory here, he now had several stark facts before him that would weigh heavily on his mind as he contemplated how to proceed. He was not worried about his SAM defenses, as his destroyers still had over 200 HQ-9B’s available. On offense, his VLS bays still held a little over 100 missiles that could reach the enemy, most being the YJ-100 now, a slow subsonic cruise missile. But he also had 40 more YJ-18’s, the missile he had tormented the British with to gain this victory.

His problem was one that many Generals and Admirals before him had faced—logistics. To make his second sortie, he had used most of the missile inventories that had been stockpiled in East Africa. He had sent a message home to inquire about replacements, but the fact was that China had little in the way of long range military air transport. Only two planes had the necessary range, the Y-9 and the new Y-20 heavy lift plane.

The Y-9 was China’s answer to the American C-130, and could carry a payload a little over 20 tons, but there were only ten built. Cruise missiles are much bigger and heavier than many realized. One YJ-18 missile had a weight of 2300 kilograms, which was 2.3 tons. So you could only put nine or ten such missiles on a single Y-9 transport plane, and it would take every plane China built to airlift enough YJ-18’s to replace those he had fired in this battle.

The new Y-20 heavy cargo lifter could do better, but the Admiral had been told those planes were not available. Only five of these had been built, and only recently delivered. The Air Force was simply not willing to risk them in the long flight over the Arabian Sea, especially since the Americans had basing rights in Oman. This meant that a strategic airlift into Mombasa would not be likely in the near future. He might badger the Air force and shake lose two or three planes, but otherwise, missile replenishment cargos would have to first go by rail through Pakistan to the big port of Karachi, and then by sea to any other destination. If they could make the hazardous journey from Karachi to Djibouti, which was 1575 miles, then they could go by rail again to Mombasa. To do any of this would take time, first to get the higher authorities to approve the missile transport operation, and then to conduct it. It was not going to happen.

The more Sun Wei considered this, the more he realized that his fleet was now playing with the hand they had been dealt before the war. While he knew he had one good attack left with his excellent destroyers, once those missiles were fired, he did not know when he would be able to sortie again in any real strength, unless he moved to Aden, where the Red Sea war supplies were stockpiled.

The British were beaten, now fleeing south at 20 knots. Their one attack with Tomahawks and a few higher speed missiles had been easily parried. His fleet was now sitting 900 miles southeast of his East African bases, and he knew that his primary mission was to control and block the sea lanes on either side of Madagascar.

This he had done, and it was clear to him, and most likely clear to the Royal Navy as well, that they could not drive him off. A fleet in being is a powerful deterrent, he thought. And I must not forget the Americans. The last satellite report showed they have a Carrier Strike Group somewhere south of Jakarta. That poses no immediate danger, being 3000 miles away at the moment, but given the strategic situation now, it is my belief that the American Navy will move first to Diego Garcia, and then into the Arabian Sea. In that instance, it is very likely that I will receive orders to move my destroyers north towards the Horn of Africa, where we would link up with our squadrons posted at Djibouti and Aden. Then we face the United States Navy, and I must have missiles for that fight.

So as much as I might wish to crush the British now with the hundred cruise missiles I still have here, this fleet must live to fight another day….

The Admiral turned to his adjutant, his mind made up.

“Order the J-20’s to orbit in place. They may return to their bases when fuel status makes this necessary. Then inform all ship Captains that we are turning for home port. This battle has been won, and we must prepare for action in the days and weeks ahead. I will address the ship’s compliment tomorrow. That is all.”

Admiral Wells had been walking slowly back and forth on the bridge of Prince of Wales, a steady pacing that was not agitated, but reflective, measured. It was then that Captain Kemp came up to report that the last F-35 radar picket had just reported the Chinese fleet had turned.

“Turned? On what heading, Captain?”

“285 degrees northwest, sir.”

He gave the Admiral a searching look, waiting. The fleet had been running south, for Wells had it in his mind to try and reach the French Port Louis on Mauritius. That island was about 450 miles east of Madagascar, and from there he could at least watch the sea lane east of that big island with some authority. But his fleet had no teeth. Missiles would have to be flown in again from Diego Garcia, mostly SAM’s to give this fleet some ability to defend itself.

I could arm my F-35’s with SPEARS, enough being left for one more strike, but we still need those planes for fleet defense. They are my only shield now if we are attacked again. If I turn for Diego Garcia, there will be missiles waiting for me there. That’s where the Yanks are heading, and god knows we need them. So that’s where we will need to be, and soon. This Chinese Admiral could turn about and renew his pursuit at any time. Are they really going home?

“Captain,” he said. “The fleet will come about to a heading of 170 northeast. We’re going to Diego Garcia.”

As he watched the big bow of Prince of Wales begin that turn Wells knew he may have just been spared the ignominious fate of commanding the worst disaster in Royal Navy history. Ten ships were lost, and his flagship also bruised. His destroyers were empty, and the SAM’s on his frigates were useless. If the Chinese had hit him with another big salvo….

Yet he was going to escape. I was a near run thing, he thought, yes, a very near run thing, but we’re going to live to fight again.

A Joint US/UK enterprise, Diego Garcia was truly one of the most strategic military bases in the world. A reef atoll, it had a large deep water lagoon that could harbor ships of any size, and in great numbers. The weather was good, as cyclones never formed in this region, and there was also a 4000 meter runway that could handle everything up to the size of a B-52.

When Wells brought in his weary fleet at 06:00 on the 24th of November, he was heartened to know that the Royal Navy kept a permanent task force on station there, consisting of the light carrier Ark Royal, Type 31 frigate Brazen, and two Type-23 frigates, Kenya and one named for its permanent home base, Diego Garcia. Those two ships had gotten the word from Whale Island that they were to receive modifications, a modular system that would give them the American RIM-162 ESSM.

It came from the older Mark 29 launchers, which were deck mounted and wholly self-contained. This precluded the need for complex wiring for targeting radars, and so two eight cell launchers were placed on Diego Garcia and Kenya, giving each frigate 16 ESSM’s in addition to their 32 Sea Ceptors. It wasn’t much, but those missiles could mean the difference between life or death for the ship when targeted by a high speed supersonic missile like the YJ-18. After testing at sea, the system was shown to work well, and so as soon as Wells put into port, he asked the American Commandant if his last two frigates could also be updated with the Mark 29. As it happened, there were several more of those launchers in storage, as the US had removed them from ships in earlier upgrades to their own vessels.

The wisdom of US naval designers was now being proved in the crucible of this war. The LHA Makin Island was also here, with Destroyers Meade and McClelland, and Wells was impressed by the power they could bring to sea. Their Mark 41 VLS cells could be loaded with a wide range of missiles, and these ships were each mounted with 40 Tomahawk MMT’s, 24 of the new US Standard Missile-6, and quad packed ESSM’s numbering 96 missiles.

“Now there’s a destroyer worth the name,” said Wells after touring Meade. “Our Daring class are fine ships, but they were built in a long and welcome stretch of peacetime for us at sea. In that interval, they seemed enough to do the job for us, but these American destroyers are literally twice as powerful. They were built for war, just like those of our adversaries.”

Wells observed that the US LHA carrier had been given both the ESSM as a medium range defense, and then the shorter range RIM-116, good out to ten miles. Having those two circles of defense around it made the ship much more survivable.

“If we can take a leaf from the US designers, we would be making a step in the right direction,” said Wells. “Let’s get Norfolk and Kent refitted with those Mark 29 ESSM launchers as soon as possible. And we must move mountains to get Prince of Wales fully operational, particularly those elevators that took damage when we were hit.

“Yes sir,” said Captain Kemp, a short, sandy haired man. “The engineers are right on that. We’ll get it sorted out. At least it was good to know that Prince of Wales can take a punch.”

“Indeed,” said Wells. “Let’s make it so she doesn’t have to take another. The Americans will be here soon, and that should buck up morale.”

“Yes sir, the Roosevelt group is 450 miles to the east, and with three more of these destroyers, and two of their cruisers. They should arrive in about 18 hours. After that, we’ll have the combined Australian/US support group—27 ships, sir, and ten warships in that group. The rest are hauling war supplies and US Marines.”

“We’re going to need them,” said Wells. “The one thing that will break this whole situation wide open would be for the Iraqis to get scratchy and go over the border into Kuwait. That’s what this whole affair is about. Unfortunately, we’ve failed to open the sea route from Cape Town, but things will change.”

“How do you see it, sir?” asked the Captain.

“Well Pete, When the Yanks get here, we’ll have muscle—real fighting power at sea, and enough to face down anything the Chinese have out here. We’ll move towards Oman, of course, because that’s where that troop convoy had to go, and more. If we don’t at least seize control of the Arabian Sea, then it really doesn’t matter that Cape Town can’t send ships north. So that’s where the fight will be. We may have lost the battle for the Indian Ocean, but something tells me that if we win this next fight for the Arabian Sea, we can reverse the whole lot in our favor.”

“It will rattle their cage if we move towards Oman.”

“That’s an understatement,” said Wells. “I think this Chinese Admiral that just handed us our hat will get order to move north, probably to the Horn of Africa. The Chinese have ships at Djibouti and Aden, and then they have a squadron at Gwadar, Pakistan, and another task force at Sri Lanka. It was a sad day when the Royal Navy left Colombo. Now the Chinese have the place.”

“Hard lessons, sir, but that was decades ago. Who could have foreseen all this? In 1990, the last thing we had on our minds was a showdown with the Chinese Navy out here.”

“True enough,” said the Admiral. “Well, a good slice of this war is going to be fought in this next campaign. If we fail to clear the way to Oman, then Saudi Arabia is completely isolated. We’ll combine with the Yanks to make a good go of things, which is why I wanted us here, and not at Port Louis on Mauritius. And there’s one more thing that might factor into this equation. The Indian Navy.”

Wells folded his arms. “Pakistan has opened Karachi to the Chinese, and I have no doubt they’ll be moving war supplies for this fight there as we speak. India and Pakistan are not friendly, to say the least. I would be very surprised if Washington and London aren’t burning the diplomatic midnight oil to get India into this war on our side. If they manage that, it could make all the difference. They had the strongest Navy in the Indian Ocean region, until the Chinese settled into all these bases. If they come over to our side of this argument, I think we can win this thing.”

“And if they stay neutral, sir?”

“Then we’ll do our best,” said Wells. “We’ll do our very best. The men have seen it now—that big grey elephant. We’ve been hurt, losing good crews and ships, and seen both our strengths and shortcomings since this thing teed off. Yet the Royal Navy isn’t finished yet, Captain, not by a long shot. We still hold Singapore, by the skin of our teeth, and this base right here, which puts us right in the middle of the stew.”

“About Singapore, sir… Can we hold out there?”

“That was the writing on the wall when we lost Illustrious and all her escorts. In fact, we should have seen the weakness in our frigates even earlier, in the Med.”

“The thing had just lit off, sir,” said Kemp. “Too easy to write off a loss as fortunes of war at that stage.”

“Yes? Well now we know better. We might buck up our frigates here with those Mark 29 launchers, but what we really need are more destroyers. After the losses started off Singapore, I put in a request to Whale Island, and they dispatched Legion and Lance from Gibraltar on the 18th. They’ll be coming with another attack boat to replace Howe, And that lot will reach Cape Town on the 28th of November, but it will take them another five days to reach Victoria in the Seychelles.”

“Better late than never, sir,” said Captain Kemp.

The British fleet had been rejuvenated there at Diego Garcia, refitting those frigates while they waited for the Roosevelt group. Wells took stock of his fleet, now with three carriers, five destroyers (including Argos Fire and a pair of Type 42’s), and nine frigates. He had recouped all the losses sustained in his advance to this point, and then some. The UK had two more Type 31 frigates feverishly fitting out in the Clyde, but beyond that, no other ship would be commissioned into the navy during this war.

With Wells now commanding 17 Ships and three more support vessels, and the Americans contributing ten ships, the Western Alliance now had a substantial fleet for this operation. Then there were another ten US and Australian warships escorting the troop and supply convoy. But as yet unknown to Admiral Wells, there was another small TF entering the scene, and it had come a very long way to get in on the action here

After resting at Sendai for some days, Vladimir Karpov made good on his plan to go south. With the American Navy waiting on convoys sealifting war supplies from San Diego and San Francisco, a long quiet spell settled over the Pacific. Yet no sooner had Karpov returned to his normal routine, when he could feel the lure of combat with the first reports coming in from Singapore. So he had taken Kirov and Kursk south, entering the Celebes Sea on the 18th. Two days later he was in the Java Sea, in a position to either support Singapore, or transit the Strait of Malacca or the Sunda Strait to get into the battle that was forming up in the Indian Ocean. He had ordered a supply ship to come all the way down from Petropavlovsk, laden with more missiles should he need them, and he certainly would.

Yes, Karpov could smell a good fight from over 3000 miles away, and there was no way he was going to miss out on this one.

Chapter 14

Admiral Sun Wei pulled on a pair of spectacles and read the decrypted message he had expected from Beijing. He was immediately pleased to see one of the signatories was Navy Commander Admiral Shen Jinlong, and another was Zhang Wendan, the Navy Chief of Staff. When he read the message, he swelled with pride. He was herewith promoted to Commander in Chief, Indo-Arabian Operations. The message was meant as much to honor him for the victory he had achieved over the Royal Navy, as well as to direct him to a coded plan briefing that he would find in the secure safe aboard his flagship.

He had set his flag aboard DDG Longshen, the Dragon God, the intrepid ship that had come all the way from the Canary Islands, a journey of many thousands of miles. Now he went to the safe to open his coded orders. The PLAN Naval Staff had devised several operational plans for various contingencies. There were three envelopes, and he compared their assigned codes to that received in this signal, selecting the appropriate message.

As I suspected, he mused while reading the order. I am to take my destroyers, and two frigates north to the tip of the Horn of Africa. And this is why no provision is being made to airlift missiles to Djibouti for transport by rail to Mombasa. That port is no longer vital. The enemy move to consolidate at Diego Garcia had been discussed, analyzed, and wargamed many times before the war. It means only one thing in this situation, that they are preparing a bold thrust towards the Arabian Peninsula. Therefore my fleet is needed there to help repel this operation. Once in position, I will assume command of regional forces from Djibouti and Aden, raising my strength to 20 ships again.

I am to coordinate with the newly appointed commander of the Arabian Sea and Bengal Bay Forces, Admiral Hong Buchan. He served in the Med before being ordered to withdraw through Suez. Some say his head is as thick as his neck, but I see him to be a competent and aggressive fighter. Yet he can also be impulsive, so I must hold the reins tightly on this one. He will have another 20 ships, and so we will be stronger now than ever before.

Between our two fleets, sits Oman, and the southeast end of the Arabian Peninsula. The Americans have a small naval presence there, but strong air power. This may mean we would have to fight with an enemy force at our backside, while we face their main thrust, which is not good. So we may have to neutralize these bases in Oman, which will have the further benefit of inhibiting the American effort to land troops there. There is just one drawback… It means we would have to strike Oman. Those attacks would come with the big operation we are expecting on the Arabian Peninsula.

So now the fires of this war will spread to a most volatile region. It will no longer be hidden in the vast emptiness of the oceans, but the sea battle ahead may end up deciding the outcome. Here is the code name the Iraqi’s have chosen: Sayf Alsahra', the Sword of the Desert, yet it will soon begin with fire arrows, and among them, our gift to the Iranians. Now the struggle for control of those vast oil reserves in the Middle East will finally begin.

The strategic situation in the Indo-Arabian sector was complex, to say the least. On the Arabian Peninsula, the House of Saud could count on Bahrain, Qatar and the Gulf States, including Oman, but it had strong enemies in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen, all backed by China. Sitting at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman, China and Pakistan were hand in glove, the China-PAK alliance active for many years. To make matters worse, the Gulf of Aden was heavily dominated by the Chinese, with bases in Djibouti and Yemen.

At the same time, Chinese bases on Sri-Lanka at Colombo and Hambantoa were also in unfriendly waters, and the only line of communications to Sri Lanka ran northeast through the Bay of Bengal to Burma, where China had pipeline terminals at Chittagong and Sittwe. The bases on Sri Lanka had been established to stretch that line of communications around the proverbial elephant in the region, the powerhouse lending its name to the vast seas to the south, India.

While they had not openly clashed in decades, China and India maintained guarded and watchful relations, mostly because of China’s cozy relationships with Pakistan. This put the world’s second most populous nation, nuclear armed, and with a strong military and navy, right in the middle of China’s soup kettle. There was no way China would ever dominate a billion people in India, and so the last thing the Chinese wanted was open war with New Delhi.

Yet things happen.

The province of Kashmir had been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947, and it remained a dangerous flashpoint. Should it flare up into open warfare, Pakistan might naturally call on China to pay the rent for its access to ports and airfields in Pakistan, and that would put Beijing in a most uncomfortable position. There had also been squabbles and mutual claims over slices of territory along the Indo-Chinese border that had caused conflict in the 1960’s.

Now, with most of China’s land army in Manchuria entangled with the Siberians, the last thing Beijing wanted was to have to move troops to the Indian border, in those mountainous regions that were so difficult where military operations were concerned.

At sea, China’s Indo-Arabian fleet was strong, but Beijing had enough on its hands in facing down the US and UK. If India joined that coalition, the sea lanes China had been trying to control and protect from the Middle East to Burma could be easily broken where they stretched around Sri Lanka. India’s eastern and western fleets could squeeze that chokepoint in a pincer move, and with the “Malacca Dilemma” still not solved, China could see its energy lifeline jugular decisively severed in such a scenario.

This is why Washington and London were urgently negotiating with India to consider active support for their coalition. Decisions made in New Delhi might therefore determine the outcome of the entire conflict in this region, and what happened here would likely decide the war. India knew this, and fully realized that it was a decisive Joker in the deck, it’s allegiance or neutrality having great consequences for both sides. If China could not control the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea, it was only a matter of time before it would have to sue for peace.

This made the price Beijing was paying for its seizure of the Ryukyus to secure the “First Island Chain” very high. It began with war against Japan, which soon brought the US into active operations in the Pacific. Then China supported long held plans in the dark corners of the mind of Saddam and Qusay Hussein, and the Arabian Nightmare was born. This led to the brief, violent actions against the Royal Navy in the Med, and again at Singapore, as one domino after another made its thundering fall. The regional squabble with Japan had become a world war in a matter of thirty days.

Now things were about to escalate further as Iraq prepared to unsheathe its Sword of the Desert. That meant the war for the great prize in the Middle East—Saudi Arabia, was about to begin.

That night, in the dark nested hollows of mountains in Iran, the grim opening salvos of that battle were preparing to launch. Iran had a large inventory of ballistic missiles, about 300 of its Shahab-1, 200 of the updated Shahab-2, and about 50 Shahab-3. The earliest models had little range, so it would be the #2 and #3 versions that would be used in this attack. To these, China had gifted Tehran with many batteries of its DF-11A missiles, and all these weapons had long posed a deadly threat to the fragile and vulnerable pipelines, refineries, terminals and oil fields of the region.

But those were not the targets. The entire point of this campaign was to secure the oil facilities intact, not to destroy them. Instead, the rain of arrows would fall on the bases and ports that hostile powers in the region would rely on in any conflict. The main targets selected were: King Khalid Airbase in northern Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz AFB on the coast, Al-Udeid AFB in Qatar, and Al Dhafra AFB in the United Arab Emirates. The ports were not considered as vital in the Persian Gulf itself, as they would also prove useful when captured. Since hostile forces had to first get past the Chinese Indo-Arabian Fleet to access them, China did now worry about US Marines landing there, aside from a few battalions that were quartered in Bahrain and Qatar. Any other allied forces would head for Oman, and then move overland through the U.A.E. into Saudi Arabia.

At 03:00 in the dark of the early morning, the order was given to let the fire arrows go, and just over 100 missiles of various stripes would be launched. They would be coming very fast, at between 4500 and 6500 knots, and did not have far to fly, which made any defense a chancy thing. The Saudis had several Patriot batteries strung out along their coast in a defensive front, and these began to track and fire soon after the launch. They would get at least 20 confirmed kills, with three other missiles suffering significant deviation from their flight path that caused them to miss their targets entirely. The remaining arrows, about 75, would all hit the ground somewhere close to where they had been aimed, causing a great deal of chaos and damage.

At Dhafra AFB, one of the hardest hit, numerous weather shelters were flayed with shrapnel, and the cargo terminal building was heavily damaged and set on fire. Runways and access points were left with smoking craters, an avgas bunker was immolated, and many hangars damaged. At Ad-Udeid in Qatar, two big B-1B bombers that had been hosted in open parking were totally destroyed, along with two F-15 Eagles, three Seahawks, and a KE-3A Sentry Tanker left burning on the tarmacs. Dark fingers of smoke began to rise over all these air bases, but the response to the attack would be swift and pointed.

The US had launched a single B-1 just minutes before the missiles came, and it was loaded with 24 JASSM cruise missiles on a mission to strike the Iranian radar network. This had been part of a standard patrol that had been mounted each day in the event of hostilities, and that day had come. It quickly dispatched its ordnance, hitting coastal radars from Bushehr to Bandar Abbas, which slowly blinded the Iranian air and naval commands. The island of Abu Musa was also struck to neutralize that airfield near the Strait of Hormuz, and then the main campaign would begin with the fighter bombers.

Saudi Arabia was infuriated by the surprise attack, even though they expected trouble soon. Yet they had no similar strategic missile brigade to counterattack.[1] Instead it would send its Tornado Fighters up with Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and they would not be alone. Qatar immediately ordered a reprisal against the Shiraz SSM complex that had attacked Al-Udeid, which remained operational in spite of the damage. For this it sent a squadron of nine Rafael fighters up, each carrying a pair of SCALP missiles, the same as the British Storm Shadow.

The USAF had another B-1 loaded and ready, and there were nine F-15’s ready to go with JASSM. The US Army did not have ground launched SSM’s to throw back at the enemy either, but the Air Force had plenty of wings that could get the job done. Over the next three hours, in a pre-planned strike campaign, the Saudi and USAF units based in the Kingdom, and in Qatar, would begin to systematically take Iran’s air defense and missile complex facilities apart. The Bushehr Naval base docks in the north were also destroyed. Only missile TEL’s that were hidden in mountain caves for a second missile strike would survive to make another attack on Al-Udeid, but the airfield was massive, and most of those missiles simply found the empty desert around it, doing little more damage.

With that, the rain of arrows would burn out, but the real fighting was about to begin.

There had been no US Naval presence inside the Persian Gulf when the war broke out, except for the single LA Class sub Pasadena. A second LA Class boat, the Toledo, was lurking in the widening maw of the passage south of the Strait of Hormuz. All other local USN units were in the Arabian Sea bases of Oman.

At As Sultan Harbor near Muscat on the Gulf of Oman, the US had a single Ticonderoga class cruiser, Bull Run, with two destroyers, Robert Rodes and Starke. LHA Tulagi was also there, with a pair of Freedom Class Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), Hunter and Ranger. Far to the south on the Arabian Sea at Salaha Harbor, the US had another two LCS ships, Recon and Scout, and a few unmanned recon sea assets.

The LCS ships had been upgraded so they at least could fight other patrol craft and frigates at range, with the addition of eight Naval Strike Missiles. The TF had sortied for the first time to escort a couple tankers in the Gulf of Oman that were moving south to harbor near Muscat, and establish a security patrol near the big oil terminal port of Al Fujairah to the north.

Now that hostilities had erupted in the region, the Iranians had sent what little they had of a navy out to look for targets of opportunity. Their patrol boats and frigates had found and killed the tanker Burgan, a 40,000 tonner, in the north Persian Gulf region, but they in turn were set upon by the Royal Saudi Navy, which cleared the area and sunk any Iranian vessel it detected.

Iran was now looking south to the key chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Light up a few tankers there, and the world would know that Iran had the power to do what it had long claimed—choke off the world’s largest supply of oil at their whim. How long they could do that was another matter, and that little contest was now about to begin.

The Iranians had five batteries of coastal SSM’s that could range on the area, numerous fast attack craft, at least six hidden diesel subs, and a small flotilla at the port of Jask south of the Strait. It was that group that would soon come into direct conflict near Muscat as it sortied out to look for prey….

“I don’t know, Jim, but OMCOM is a little edgy about this situation. Washington wants us to show the flag, but we’re hung out here on our own until Roosevelt gets close, and its feeling mighty lonesome.”

That was Captain Peter Duncan on the cruiser Bull Run speaking with his XO, James, Fallon. OMCOM was, of course, Oman Command, and it was indeed a lonesome stand. There were just not enough big deck carriers to keep one on full time patrol on the region, which had been quiet for many years. Then all hell broke loose in the Pacific, and now the Navy was rushing CV Roosevelt to the scene, but it was many hours away, still approaching Diego Garcia at that hour.

“I hear ya,” said the XO. “Chinese walloped the Royal Navy down south, and they have a pretty damn strong fleet up here. In fact, we’ll be in missile range from the moment we leave port.”

“Better at sea than tied up at a dock,” said the Captain. “Did you get the Intel on that local TF?”

“It’s been like Chinese checkers out here, sir, but I think we narrowed it down. They have two of their hot new Renhai class DDs, and a couple older Type 051D’s—it’s an upgrade model, and we don’t have much in the way of specs on it yet. Beyond that, they have a corvette and two more frigates.”

“Seven ships… and two of them Renhai Class. That’s a lot to tangle with. Where are they now?”

“Here sir, about 100 miles northeast of Cape Ras al Haad. That’s about 165 miles east of our harbor.”

“So they are in missile range…. That report on the YJ-18’s was sobering.”

“Yes sir. They copied that one from the Russians, but they sure kicked it into high gear on that terminal run.”

“Word is that our ESSM’s can handle it, but seven ships can haul a lot of throw weight. If we get into a scrap with them, we’ll need air support from those Strike Raptors at Seeb.”

That was the airbase near Muscat, very close to the As Sultan Harbor where the US ships were now casting off lines. And yes, they were going to need all the help they could find.

Chapter 15

You could not kill what you could not see…. That was now the dilemma being face by the Iranians as one radar site after another was destroyed by US and Saudi air assets. They could not forge the first link of their kill chain, and had little in the way of AEW planes that could surveil the region. China might pass along satellite data, but it was not enough. So they resorted to the old fashioned fallback of fighter jet reconnaissance missions, hoping to find fat, oil laden fish in the Gulf of Oman.

The results there would be mixed. An old F-4 Phantom would take off from Jask airfield, fly low over the gulf, and then climb to look for tanker traffic. About 50 miles out, it spotted a big ship heading south, and reported the contact to TF Jask, which had the frigates Alvand, Alborz, and three Thondor class patrol boats, each carrying four Chinese built C-802 missiles. Sometimes thought of as the Chinese Harpoon, the missile had about the same range as that American made weapon, roughly 70 miles, and was perfect for use in these constricted littoral waters.

One of two F-22 Raptors that had been covering the US TF was diverted to investigate the F-4 when it was detected. Racing northwest towards the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz at 1000 knots, the pilot saw both the F-4 and four missiles heading for the big 150,000 ton Singapore flagged tanker Amethyst. It was ordered to engage the missiles first, and then take down that fighter.

Unlike the F-35, which could carry only four AIM-120D’s internally, the Raptor could bring six. That allowed them to put one on each of the four missiles TF Jask had fired, and one on that F-4, still leaving one arrow in the quiver if anything missed. All four missiles were destroyed, but the F-4 dove and slipped the noose on that first shot. The Last AMRAAM would find and kill it a minute later.

“Bertha, Achilles-1. Grandslam, and we are Winchester.” The raptor pilot reported he had swept the table, but seeing their missiles defeated, the Iranians doubled down. A second Thondor missile boat pushed four more chips out onto the table, firing all its C-802’s.

“Roger Achilles-1, cleared RTB. Achilles-2, vector 350 and burn the oil. Bertha, Over.”

“Roger that, Bertha. Achilles-2 turning on 350, and Buster.”

The second Raptor in that flight had been ordered to get northwest fast and see if it could intervene. At the same time, two more F-22’s were scrambling from As Sultan air field, with another pair of Strike Raptors carrying the GBU-53.

It was a real footrace now. The F-22’s were almost twice as fast at the C-802, which was a subsonic missile at 520 knots. But the missiles had been fired just 50 miles from the tanker, and Achilles-2 had been 120 miles away when it was ordered to turn and burn. So the Vampires were about 20 miles from their targets by the time the F-22 was getting in range. At 15:20, it put four missiles out after the Vampires, and they went racing in to try and save the tanker.

On board the Amethyst, a crewman on an upper deck had seen the C-802’s tracking in and rang the bell to sound an alarm. Then he crossed himself as the Vampires pushed inside the five mile mark, burning their way towards all that oil. He saw a flash of light to the east, and white angels were streaking through the sky, their tails bright with fire. One by one, they found and killed those cruise missiles, the last just two miles from the ship. It was as if God had answered his prayer that hour, flinging his arrows to save the ship.

Frustrated, the third Iranian Thondor now fired its four missiles, and the drama would replay yet again. Yet the Iranian F-4 had also detected another ship hovering off the great oil terminal port of Al Fujairah, and it was also targeted by the frigate Alvand. From the Iranian point of view, their missiles were simply exploding, as they had not seen any of the Raptors on their fitful radars.

“Ulysses, Bertha. These guys have fired again. Take it to them. Cleared hot. Over.

“Roger Big Bertha, Ulysses on the Indians.”

The Strike Raptors were going after the source of the trouble, vectoring in on TF Jask. They raced in and sent a cloud of GBU-53’s at the Iranian ships, which had nothing but guns and chaff for defense. With 32 bombs in the air, that wasn’t going to have any chance of stopping that attack.

Light frigate Alborz was the first to be hit, three bombs blasting into the 1500 ton ship. All three patrol boats were smashed, and the sole survivor, frigate Alvand, turned and went all ahead flank for home.

It would never get there….

“Bertha, Ulysses. Bury my heart at Wounded Knee. The Indians are goners. Grandslam, Over.”

“We copy, Ulysses. RTB.”[2]

Two more F-22A’s, Achilles five and six, would now scramble to take up the watch as the Strike Raptors turned for home. The air cover had done its job, killing every missile fired at those two tankers, and then sinking all five Iranian ships, ending the naval threat from the port of Jask.

These incidents had turned on the lights in HQ compounds all through the Gulf of Oman. The Iranians were somewhat humiliated over the fact that they could not even put a single missile on those lumbering tankers, but the only thing they could do was order a hidden diesel sub to move in their direction. The American Raptors could not kill torpedoes. At Jask airport, they had nine Mirage F-1’s, which were relatively useless in any contest for control of the airspace. Their only missile was the R550 Magic, with a five mile range. Yet they might arm with bombs and make a suicide run at the tanker, for that is what it would become against the American F-22’s. At the moment, they were staying on the ground.

About 130 miles east of Jask in Iran, the Chinese had a squadron of J-10B’s at Char Bahar, and they threw up a CAP patrol to screen a KJ-200 AEW plane. That was the last Iranian airfield, on the Gulf of Oman, but further east, just across the Pakistani border, was the Chinese base at Gwadar. The US noted that the Chinese Arabian Sea Task Force did not appear to be entering the Gulf of Oman. You could draw a line from the Pakistani border to the Cape Ras al Haan where the coast of Oman bent sharply south, and the Chinese were staying east of that border.

As for the US Security Patrol, they had standing orders not to engage land targets in Pakistan, or any aircraft, ship, or sub identified as Pakistani. That was a fuse they did not want to light. So Bull Run turned northwest, about 30 miles off the coast of Oman, intending to make its way north towards Al Fujairah and the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Then something happened to knock the tensely balanced situation out of whack.

The Chinese J-10 patrol was hugging the Iranian coast, about 115 miles from the US TF, and it made a sudden turn towards the Americans, switching on its radars. They were trying to resolve the contact made by their KJ-200 on the American ships, but that sudden move was like a gunslinger reaching to his hip as far as Captain Duncan was concerned on Bull Run. He went after them with Standard Missile-6, killing two of the three J-10’s.

That missile fire quickly allowed the Chinese TF to confirm the known American cruiser in the region was now at sea. Captain Duncan’s move might have been made out of an abundance of caution, but it immediately turned what looked like a tense standoff into an active engagement. There were a pair of dragons out in the Arabian Sea, and now they would wake up.

DDG Chilong, the Fire Dragon, was the local cop on the beat, operating out of Gwadar under Captain Yu Han. He was reinforced by DDG Feilong, the Flying Dragon that had come all the way from the Med, and these ships formed the nucleus of a very powerful TF, as Captain Duncan knew. Now he had all but dared the Chinese to do something about the shootdown incident, and they did, with a barrage of 16 YJ-18’s. Captain Duncan was now going to get a firsthand look at what that missile could do, or so he believed.

“We’ve been fired upon,” said Fallon, leaning heavily over the radar station aboard the Bull Run. “Looks like 16 Vampires.”

“Standby to repel missile attack,” said Duncan, knowing his SM-6 fire had poked a stick in the beehive. The Chinese weren’t doing anything he would not have done under similar circumstances, but he noted the salvo coming their way was not too heavy.

“Mister Fallon, contact Muscat and tell them they’d better get some more Raptors up.”

Those vampires were coming at a sedate 530 knots, which left plenty of time for the Air CAP to take a shot at them, which they did. The two F-22s killed six of the enemy cruise missiles before turning for home, and now more planes were scrambling off the airfield at Muscat. They just climbed, acquired the targets, and fired immediately. Not one of the YJ-18’s would get close enough to start that dreadful high speed terminal run, and Captain Duncan smiled, glad that the USAF had his back.

Aboard DDG Chilong, Captain Yu Han had been watching the attack on radar. When the last of his missiles were killed well before they reached their target, he knew there must be hidden aircraft out there in the deadly space between the two TF’s.

Yes, he thought, the American stealth fighters are very good. Reports from Admiral Sun Wei indicated that the British used their carrier planes almost exclusively to defend their fleet. It took overwhelming force to break them, and that means I might have to be more aggressive here if I am to make any mark on this American task force. A man cannot get fat with just one bite.

To begin with, their ships are much better at air defense than the Royal Navy ships, and this air cover will make them very hard targets. The enemy fighters would have to be defeated or at least worn down before we could get at those ships.

He considered what to do, knowing that the Americans were not the only ones with stealth fighters. There were two squadrons of J-20’s at Gwadar, but to use them he would need permission from the Zone Commander, Admiral Hung Buchan. That should not be difficult, he thought. That man was always spoiling for a good fight. It has been said he learned to run before he could walk!

It was then that the Captain would realize just how dangerous the American Air Force could be. Four more Strike Raptors had taken off from Muscat and then turned south before angling southeast behind the coastal range. They then crossed the rugged mountains and came at the Chinese fleet from the southwest, their weapons bays loaded with 24 GBU 53’s each. That would put 96 bombs in the air, a most uncomfortable attack, because it drained SAM’s at a terrible rate, even if these were not heavy ship killing bombs. Each one that hit would still do damage, so they had to be engaged and defeated, one by one.

The Arabian Sea TF was sitting with 160 HQ-9B’s in the VLS bays, between the two Type 055’s. The remaining SAM defense was 128 HQ-16’s, a medium range missile good out 21 miles. After that it was all short range HQ-10’s with 92 of those good out to 4 miles.

At 20:57, minutes before the hour, a massive red stain appeared on the Chinese radars as the Strike Raptors let those bombs fly. Every ship in the task force was targeted with at least a dozen bombs, and the Renhai Class ships got anything that was left over to pile on them even more. As it happened, the two dragons were screening the other TF ships, and now they looked over their shoulders, saw the attack coming, and prepared to roar.

The destroyers could put out a terrible volume of fire in need, the HQ-9’s having proved themselves as lethal defenders in many engagements over the last month. They would end up firing every HQ-9 they had, clouding up the night with a ghastly grey pall of missile smoke, but that shotgun of fire was enough. Some of the bombs got close, prompting gunfire that sent rending streams of 30mm rounds into that grey shroud. And then it was over, with all 96 bombs found and killed, and not one scratch on any of the Chinese ships. The damage done, however, was the loss of all that long range missile defense.

Captain Yu Han knew now that his wisest course was 15 degrees northeast, back to a safe harbor at Gwadar. There were several ships there that might sortie to help cover him, and now the J-20’s would fly like bats from their nests in the dark, and begin winging their way towards the war smoke on the sea.

“That did it,” said Lt Commander Fallon on the Bull Run. “Damn, the Air Force won this one. We didn’t have to fire a missile after we took down those two J-10’s”

“Those GBU’s really pull the SAM’s,” said Captain Duncan. “The report I read said the British used them to good effect early on, but then had to go defensive with their F-35’s. Looks like the Chinese are headed back to Gwadar. Report it to OMCOM, and tell them we’ll proceed as planned to clear the strait of Hormuz.”

“Aye sir, they’ll be glad to hear it. Say, these guys aren’t all that bad. They roughed up the Royal Navy, but they couldn’t lay a finger on us.”

“And we didn’t have to lift one either,” said Captain Duncan, but don’t think it will stay that way. There’s trouble here, Jim, deeper and wider than the Gulf of Oman, and that much trouble always finds a way onto your lap. This isn’t over.”

It certainly wasn’t…