Executive Intent

FOUR

IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND, PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

THE NEXT DAY

The U.S. Navy had only one vessel within twenty miles of the hastily announced launch point, the USS Milius, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer-and it had to run at flank speed to get as close as possible to the launch vicinity-but it had a ringside seat for a spectacular show from the Chinese navy.

Four warships, including China ’s aircraft carrier Zhenyuan, and an intelligence-gathering vessel, a Dalang-class submarine tender that had also been modified for electronic eavesdropping duties, were on hand, surrounding a three-mile-diameter circle of open ocean. A tall buoy marked the center of the protected area. Three Z-8 Jingdezhen heavy patrol helicopters from Hainan Island circled a ten-mile radius of the area, using their French-made ORB-32 Heracles-II radars to search for unauthorized ships or submarine periscopes peeking over the surface.

At the announced time, two of the ships in the cordon blew horns and whistles, which continued for about thirty seconds…until a geyser of water erupted from a spot about a quarter mile from the buoy in the protected zone, and moments later a missile burst through the column of water and ignited its first-stage solid rocket booster. The missile was a Julang-1S sea-launched ballistic missile, the first-generation sea-launched missile modeled from the Dong Feng-21 land-based mobile ballistic missile. It had just been launched from a Xia-class ballistic-missile submarine submerged at a depth of 150 feet and traveling at three nautical miles per hour. A slug of compressed gas pushed the missile out of its launch tube and surrounded the missile in a protective cocoon as it shot toward the surface. The force of the gas pushed the missile about thirty feet out of the water, when the missile’s first stage fired.

But this was not a land-attack ballistic-missile experiment. The JL-1 did not adopt a ballistic flight path, but instead continued almost straight up, punching through the atmosphere at several thousand miles per hour. Five minutes after blasting through the surface of the South China Sea, the JL-1 flew into the path of a Chinese Fengyun FY-1D weather satellite, orbiting 320 miles above Earth, and destroyed it with a high-explosive cloud of shrapnel.

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE, THE PENTAGON, WASHINGTON, D.C.

A SHORT TIME LATER

“They scored a bull’s-eye, sir,” Kai Raydon said on the secure video teleconference link, “and put us square in their crosshairs at the same time.”

“Let’s not be so dramatic here, General Raydon,” Secretary of Defense Miller Turner said. With him in his office was the secretary of the Air Force, Sal Banderas; Ann Page, undersecretary of the Air Force for space; and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Taylor Bain. Also in on the teleconference was Admiral Sherman Huddy, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, from his temporary command center at Battle Mountain Air Force Base in Nevada; and General Robert Wiehl, commander of U.S. Space Command, from his headquarters at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, along with several analysts and advisers from around the world. “Every Chinese missile test isn’t a direct threat to us.”

“Sir, it was an antisatellite missile launched from a submerged submarine,” Ann Page said. “The DF-21s were a big enough threat, but at least we could see where they were placed and target them, even the mobile units. The sub-launched ones can be anywhere. The land-based missiles have a range of about fifteen to nineteen hundred miles, but in antisatellite mode the sub can be positioned within a thousand miles of a satellite’s path and be able to hit it in almost any orbital inclination. It’s a radical new capability that poses a direct threat not only to Armstrong, but to all American space assets.”

“All right, Secretary Page, you made your point,” Turner said, holding up a hand. “But let’s get some perspective here, shall we? First of all: Do we know it was a direct hit?”

“As far as we can measure, sir,” General Wiehl replied. “It’s possible they could have faked the hit. But the satellite they destroyed was a weather satellite that we’ve been tracking for many years.”

“We have some pretty clear electro-optical pictures of the engagement-it looks like a direct hit to us, sir,” Kai chimed in.

“Let’s say it was a direct hit,” Turner said. “In that case: good show. But let’s put this in some perspective, shall we? We were similarly surprised when the Chinese shot down their other weather satellite back in 2007, but this is the first ASAT test since then, am I correct?”

“Yes, sir,” Wiehl replied.

“So two successful ASAT tests in five years? Not exactly a grave threat to national security, I’d say. Next: The Chinese have how many subs capable of launching a JL-1 missile?”

“Eight, sir,” Admiral Huddy replied after checking his notes, “with two more nuclear-powered boomers in the works. But there are only four Xia-class subs active now-the other four Jin-class subs are designed to carry the larger JL-2 missiles for intercontinental ballistic-missile duties.”

“So you’re saying just four subs capable of launching ASATs?” Turner asked. “How many missiles per sub?”

“Twelve, sir.”

“And normally only two subs are at sea at a time? That’s true for us, right, so it must be true for the Chinese?”

“Yes, sir. They could surge them in times of crisis, as we would, but half on patrol and half in training, predeployment workup, or maintenance is typical.”

“So we’re down to two subs on duty with a max of twenty-four ASATs. It doesn’t sound like much of a threat to me, ladies and gentlemen.”

“Combined with the land-based antisatellite missiles, I’d say it was a very serious threat, especially in a coordinated attack against Armstrong, sir,” Kai said. “They would salvo their ASATs to try to overwhelm our defenses, dilute the number of interceptors we could use for antiballistic-missile defense, and put us on the defensive to prevent us from employing ground-attack weapons.”

“And if they load up their subs with antisatellite missiles they have fewer land-or ship-attack weapons to use against someone else,” Turner said. “The president warned about an arms race, folks, and it looks like it’s happening right before our eyes. We spooked the Chinese by firing antiballistic-missile and ground-attack weapons from space, and now they’re scrambling to make up for lost ground.”

“The good news is, they’re forced to compromise other plans and programs to do so,” General Bain said.

“Only until they ramp up production and build more subs and missiles, sir,” Kai said.

“Which they certainly will,” Ann Page interjected. “So I believe it’s imperative to start ramping up our own space programs, such as deploying the remaining interceptor garages quicker and completing the network integration of Space Defense Force with the other services, the Pentagon, and the intelligence services. We know now that if we do nothing, the Chinese are very capable of quickly fielding a potent enough mix of weapons to seriously threaten our foothold in space. We need to deploy the remaining twenty-four garages as soon as possible. With the right funding, we can-”

“You’re talking money that’s not in the budget now and is not expected to be in the budget for the next three to seven years, Ann,” Turner said. “We’re spending billions to launch things into space that cost the Chinese only a few million to kill. That kind of fuzzy math is not going to solve the problem.” He turned away from Ann to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. “General, what’s the conclusion of the Chiefs? Is this a real threat against our space assets, a warning message, or a successful demonstration that isn’t a real threat to us?”

“The Chiefs had the same questions you did about the numbers of ballistic-missile-capable subs in the Chinese fleet and the number of ASAT tests over the years, sir,” General Bain replied, “and they have concluded that the test was indeed very impressive, but the threat to Armstrong Space Station or any other assets would be minimal.

“True, the Chinese have deployed many of these ground-based mobile antisatellite emplacements in recent months,” he went on, “and the submarine-launched ASAT is a much greater threat because it would be harder to target ahead of time.” He looked at Ann Page, nodded, and spread his hands. “And frankly, I’m not on Armstrong, looking down the barrel of all those guns pointed at me. But the United States has declared that attacking any space assets would be treated the same as attacking sovereign American soil or a U.S.-flagged ship at sea, and the Chiefs don’t believe China wants to attack anyone.

“The bottom line is this, sir: China has deployed an awful lot of these ASAT sites in direct proportion to our deployment of these interceptor garages in space,” Bain concluded. “Those garages are there not to start a fight, but to respond in case a fight breaks out. We feel the same is true for the ASAT sites. Further, China is deploying these weapons with way below the bare minimum of testing. We looked at the same info: Two tests in five years, although successful, do not normally signal a green light to widely deploy these systems. China is doing this in response to our actions, whether or not the weapons are truly effective. They are trying to show they can’t be bullied or intimidated.”

“But we’re not trying to bully or intimidate anyone here,” Turner said, “so China is setting up these antisatellite weapons for nothing. It’s a waste of their time and money.”

“But what if China does have another agenda?” Ann Page asked. “We’re not opposing China -we want their investments and cheap goods. But what if China has other plans that we might oppose? Could they take away our advantage in space if we don’t respond to this escalation?”

“That’s a policy hypothetical that doesn’t concern us right now, Dr. Page,” Turner said. “This meeting was called to explore whether this recent development constituted a credible and imminent threat to national security that needed to be addressed right away by the White House. The answer seems to be no. Am I correct in that, ladies and gentlemen?”

“I think it remains to be seen, sir,” Ann said.

“As General Bain said, Secretary Turner: We’re looking down the barrels of a lot of guns all of a sudden,” Kai said. “The only defense against a bolt-from-the-blue antisatellite attack is with defensive weapons, and right now our defenses are borderline. We couldn’t survive a direct concentrated attack without a full-up constellation of interceptor garages and a fully responsive and integrated defense data network, based from up here. China could have the capability to shoot down this station at a time and place of their choosing, and our chances of surviving an attack is low right now without more support.”

“Message received and understood, General Raydon,” Turner said. “Thank you for your input. Thank you, everyone.” And the connection went dead.

“Well?” President Joseph Gardner asked impatiently on the secure phone line from the Oval Office, just a few moments from the conclusion of the videoconference at the Pentagon. With him were Vice President Kenneth Phoenix, Chief of Staff Walter Kordus, National Security Adviser Conrad Carlyle, and Secretary of State Stacy Anne Barbeau. “What’s the word?”

“As you surmised, sir: The Air Force and the space nuts are all freaked out, but the Joint Chiefs don’t think it’s a big deal that China tested this sub-launched antisatellite missile,” Miller Turner said. “The Joint Chiefs say it was a successful demo of an antisatellite system that’s not likely to be used except to show the world that China doesn’t like current U.S. space policy. They may continue to deploy more antisatellite weapons and submarines, but are unlikely to ever use them. Space Defense Force thinks they can defend themselves against all but a concentrated, dedicated assault, which everyone agrees is very unlikely.”

“But of course Page and Raydon want more, right?”

“Of course. Like you said, they want to accelerate deployment of more interceptor garages and set up the fully integrated space defense network-with them in full control, of course.”

“Apparently we haven’t made it clear enough to them that it’s not going to happen: The Space Defense Force is pure fiction, and it’s not going to get one single dime more than what’s budgeted right now to keep their stuff operating at current levels,” Gardner said. “Thank you for getting that meeting put together so quickly, Miller. I’ll be talking with Stacy about what our diplomatic response should be, but I’m encouraged by the fact that China gave the world a heads-up before testing that weapon, even if it was a pretty short one. I think once the saber-rattling dies down, we’ll be able to work with the Chinese to ratchet the tension down. Thanks again.”

“Yes, Mr. President,” Turner said, signing off.

The president nodded and set the receiver on its hook. “It’s as we figured: The Chiefs say the missile launch was a successful test of a new capability, but it doesn’t represent a significant threat because it’s immature technology and the Chinese have so few subs capable of launching the missiles,” he summarized for the others in the Oval Office with him. “Not a cause for undue concern. Thoughts?”

“I still disagree, sir,” Phoenix said. “We have a trillion-dollar investment in Armstrong Space Station and the other components of the Space Defense Force network. Testing that sub-launched antisatellite weapon was a direct threat to all of it. We have to respond by finishing the interceptor garages and completing integration of the space-sensor network with the rest of the military, and we have to do it quickly before China gains an advantage by fielding more of those antisatellite missiles.”

“It would take an emergency funding bill costing hundreds of billions of dollars, Mr. Vice President,” Carlyle said. “I don’t think we have the votes in Congress, and I’m positive we don’t have the money.”

“I believe strongly enough in the program that I’m willing to lead the effort to get as many representatives to support it as possible, Mr. President,” Phoenix said. “I know a group of lawmakers who would draft a bill, and I can get a number of industry groups and contractors together to explain exactly what the completed system would give us. Just say the word.”

“Maybe after the elections, Ken,” Gardner said flatly.

“We should act as quickly as we can, sir-”

“I think it’s important not to overreact to this test, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau interjected when she saw Gardner ’s warning glare. “I’ve spoken with the premier and civilian military leadership of China, and they’ve all assured me that China views space as it does the high seas: It should be free for peaceful and cooperative exploitation by all nations.” She turned to the president. “The Chinese say current U.S. policy toward space makes it difficult for them to back away from deploying antisatellite weapons, sir.” She saw a hint of confusion in the president’s face, so she explained:

“Our stated policy is that travel, access, and development of space is considered a vital national imperative and we’ll defend it like our own soil and shores.” The confused look vanished, replaced by one of worry. “Our policies don’t mesh.”

“So you’re suggesting we change our policy because China doesn’t like it?” Phoenix asked. “Since when does China tell us what to say or do?”

“I’m not suggesting we change our policy because China said so, Mr. Vice President,” Barbeau said testily. “I’m saying that in my opinion the sticking point with the Chinese and other nations is that our policy states America is claiming the right to space and will go to war to protect that right. China and other space-faring states want a guarantee of free access for all. If they don’t get that assurance, their only response is to build and field weapons that can at least threaten our systems.”

“If they want an arms race, we should give it to them,” Phoenix said. “That’s how President Reagan took down the Soviet Union and ended the Cold War: He forced the Soviets to invest more and more in weapons until their economy finally collapsed. China may have a red-hot economy now, but if they’re forced into a space arms race with us, we can bankrupt them just as easily as the Soviets. We should-”

“All right, Ken, all right,” President Gardner interjected. “My main objective here is to keep the dialogue open between Washington and Beijing, and it’s been strained by the accidental attack on the Bush and the situation in Pakistan -”

“And their deployment of these ASAT bases and submarines,” Phoenix cut in.

“I said hold on, Ken.” The president paused reflectively, then went on: “As you all know, as SECNAV, I disagreed with President Martindale’s executive order about U.S. space policy-I didn’t think it was necessary to, in effect, plant a flag in space and dare other nations to try to knock it down. As SECDEF and president following the American Holocaust, I didn’t want to reverse any policy decisions that might make us look weak in the eyes of the world.

“But that horrible event was eight years ago now. We may still be weaker than we were before the Russian attacks, but I believe we’re leaner and meaner, and it’s time we take a leadership position in the world again rather than sit in a corner, lick our wounds, and glare at the rest of the world with suspicion. And I’m not going to play that Cold War game of building more and more weapons because the other side fields some new weapon.”

He turned to Secretary of State Barbeau: “Stacy, you may communicate with the Chinese foreign ministers and tell them that I am forming a policy review panel to examine the U.S. National Space Policy executive order. Our purpose of the study will be to rewrite the order to make it clear to the world that the United States wants nothing more than free access to space by all nations, and that we will do nothing to jeopardize that. We want a policy that makes the deployment of antisatellite weapons, either in space or on the ground, unnecessary and detrimental to world peace and security.”

“Sir, you’re not suggesting we give up Armstrong Space Station and its defensive weapons…?”

“I think the antiballistic-missile interceptors are valuable for national security and for the protection of friends and allies,” the president said, “and I think any military unit or base should have a means of defending itself, and that includes Armstrong. Plus, all of the Earth and space imaging, reconnaissance, surveillance, and communications stuff is absolutely essential.

“But I’m willing to reconsider the notion of putting land-attack and antisatellite weapons into orbit, or at least drastically decreasing how many are in use so we don’t create an arms race in space. If we can get countries like China and Russia to agree on limiting deployment of antisatellite weapons, we can show the rest of the world that disarmament and cooperation is possible.”

“I agree with that idea, Mr. President,” Secretary of State Barbeau said. She glanced at Vice President Phoenix furtively, then added, “In fact, I think it would have that much more impact if you made it a unilateral decision: The United States will as soon as possible remove all antisatellite weapons from service, including those in Earth orbit and from ships at sea, and we call on all other nations to follow suit in the name of peace, security, and freedom of the use of outer space.” She glanced again at Phoenix long enough to see his shocked expression, then said, “I’m sure the Chinese and Russians will enthusiastically receive that proclamation, and then we can proceed with a formal arms-reduction treaty that will seek to eliminate all space weapons.”

“Why in the world do you think any nation would give up its antisatellite weapons and enter into a treaty banning such weapons if the United States unilaterally gives them up first, Madam Secretary?” Phoenix asked, obviously fighting to keep his emotions in check. “ China is furiously setting up antisatellite missile launchers all around the world because we’re so far ahead of them on space-based weapon technology. If we give those up, they have a chance to catch up. They could have years of development time before any formal treaty is signed and ratified and a verification regime put in place.”

“I’m spinning ideas here, Mr. Vice President, that’s all,” Barbeau said gaily, waving a hand at Phoenix dismissively. “As always, the devil is in the details, of course. But isn’t it easy enough to load those containers or garages or whatever you call them up again with missiles in case a fight breaks out?”

“I don’t think it’s easy at all, Madam Secretary,” Phoenix said. “It means using rockets or spaceplanes to lift them back into orbit, and astronauts doing space walks to load them into their launchers. Shipborne antisatellite missiles may be easier to redeploy, but it still takes a ship several days or even weeks to return to port for-”

“Well, as I said, Mr. Vice President, it’s all in the details, of course,” Barbeau interjected, “but I really don’t see any stumbling points to prevent this from being accomplished over time, do you, sir?” Phoenix only stared at her. She smiled back. “Neither do I. After all, we do it with nuclear weapons, nuclear laboratories, and strategic weapon systems every day.”

“Yes, but-”

“I’m sure the Chinese and Russians realize that removing the antisatellite weapons from the garages already in orbit will take some time and effort, a lot more than it would take from the land-or sub-based launchers,” Barbeau went on, “but we would commit ourselves to do it, and also to setting up a verification system on all sides to be sure it’s being accomplished to everyone’s satisfaction.” She looked at Phoenix, gave him another smile, then looked at the president. “Perhaps you would consider naming the vice president to chair the review panel concerning the National Space Policy, Mr. President?”

“Excellent idea, Stacy,” President Gardner said, looking carefully at Phoenix with a thin smile. “Although he has committed to being out on the campaign trail a lot more often, I don’t think the review panel would take up too much more of his time, and he does like to keep up on the latest technology. What do you say, Ken? Interested?”

“I think there are many better-qualified folks to take on this task, Mr. President, like Conrad or Miller,” Phoenix responded after a brief but clearly uncomfortable pause. But then he nodded and said, “But I’d be happy to do it for you, Mr. President.”

“I know you wanted to lead a commission to get congressional support for the Space Defense Force stuff, Ken,” the president said, “but I don’t think the two run at odds with each other-in fact, I think they could be complementary: You want the force brought up to speed as quickly as possible, but you also want to demonstrate America’s willingness to cooperate with the world community on eliminating the offensive use of space. Sounds like a win-win to me. What do you say?”

It was obvious Phoenix knew he was being railroaded, but he still nodded enthusiastically. “I’m your guy, Mr. President. Thanks for trusting me to do the job.”

“Very good,” the president said. “Progress reports regularly, get together with Walter to get your board members cleared and seated. Stacy, you can tell the Chinese that the vice president himself will chair the policy review board. Ask that it be kept confidential for now-that’ll guarantee it’ll be leaked right away.”

OFFICE OF THE MINISTER OF NATIONAL DEFENSE, BEIJING, PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

DAYS LATER

“Welcome, welcome, General,” Chinese National Defense Minister Zung Chunxian said as General Hua Zhilun entered his office and bowed respectfully. The minister of defense extended his hand, and Hua shook it. “You’ve had a most impressive week I see. Come in and tell me about the test.”

“Xie-xie, Minister,” Hua said. Zung showed him to a seat as an assistant brought tea and served it for both of them. “I am very proud of my operations staff and the crew of Submarine 483. They executed the test perfectly. I wish to nominate Captain Han and his crew for a distinguished service award. The submarine’s position had to be precise and the launch perfectly timed, and the crew performed well.”

“It shall be done, General,” Zung said. “The submarine was under way when the missile was launched, I understand?”

“Yes, sir, at about ten knots. For optimal results, the submarine had to launch when inside a five-kilometer area at a certain time-almost no margin for error was permitted. In operational use, the timing is not as critical, but we wanted the best possible conditions for this demonstration.”

“The Central Military Commission and the president are pleased, General,” Zung went on. “Foreign Affairs Minister Tang tells me that he has received word that the Americans were so surprised-and intimidated, I should think-by the test that they are forming a panel to review their space policy, including a global reduction or ban on antisatellite weapons. What do you think of that?”

Hua looked a little surprised and disappointed. “Ban all antisatellite weapons? That would put us even further behind the Americans in research and development. Is the president considering it?”

“Of course not, General,” Zung said, waving a hand dismissively. “But if the Americans want to do it, we would not discourage them. If we did sign such a treaty, we would continue research and development and prepare to deploy the weapons in the case of any hostilities.” Hua looked relieved. “No, General, the commission was very pleased with the test, and they are taking a very hard look at expanding space and counter-space-weapon technology. Nothing China has done in recent years has riveted the attention of the Americans as much as that launch.”

“That is good to hear, sir.”

“In fact, the president advises me that our other proposal has been approved by the commission,” Zung said. “They want risk-reduction operations to be accelerated so they can request additional funds to expand the antisatellite program before negotiations begin to shut them down. Did you bring the data I requested?”

“Yes, sir,” Hua said, opening his briefcase and extracting a single piece of paper. “The Americans have thirteen Kingfisher weapon satellites in orbit-about half to a fourth of the proposed constellation, we do not know precisely. All but four are fully operational, based on data transmissions we intercept. One satellite makes almost no transmissions, although it appears to be responding to positioning commands. We believe this one’s weapon functions have malfunctioned and were shut down. The Americans will probably send an astronaut from the Armstrong Space Station to attempt repairs soon.”

“That sounds like a good candidate, General,” Zung said. “Will it be in position soon?”

“The timing could not be better, sir,” Hua said. “In five days the American satellite will be within range of our newest DF-21 installation in Taunggyi, Myanmar. That base has the most up-to-date version of the tracking and guidance software, and an improved missile and rocket motor. The launch window will be open for three hours once a day for approximately three days, and then will close for several days again before reopening, so we have a little leeway in case of other unforeseen complications.”

“Excellent,” Zung said. “Operation Shan-dian begins in six days. We will coordinate your operation to coincide with it. Hopefully the Americans will be too distracted by Shan-dian to pay attention to your test.”

“We will be ready, sir,” Hua said.

“Will the Americans detect the launch from Myanmar?”

“Yes, sir, most assuredly,” Hua said. “The Americans have two very good launch-detection systems: the Defense Support Program satellites, or DSP, and their replacement, the Space Based Infrared System, or SBIRS, satellites. SBIR has two components, high and low. DSP and SBIRS-High are designed to detect rocket launches almost everywhere on the planet with great precision and have a modest tracking capability. SBIRS-Low is designed to accurately track rockets and even fast-moving aircraft in flight, predict impact areas, and cue other space, sea-based, or land-based antimissile systems. Fortunately, SBIRS-Low is not fully deployed, so the chance of the Americans tracking a missile with it are extremely low.”

“I do not understand most of what you just said, General,” Zung said, rising to his feet and smiling, “but I trust the Americans will eventually determine that it was one of ours. The president and foreign minister must have an acceptable explanation ready for them. But we are hoping that Operation Shan-dian will distract them enough. Have your forces ready for the final execution order, and good luck.”

ARMSTRONG SPACE STATION

SEVERAL DAYS LATER

Kai Raydon was on his last mile of his twice-daily thirty-minute exercise routine in the daily-room module, which was a combination galley, entertainment center, gymnasium, and computer and crew communications room. He was strapped to an exercise bicycle, which used electric magnets to simulate resistance while pedaling, while at the same time he pushed and pulled on a rowing-style machine that also created resistance for upper-body toning. A vacuum vent above him sucked loose droplets of sweat into the station’s recycling system.

A crewmember from the day shift was waiting his turn to use the machine. “You’re hitting that thing pretty hard this morning, sir,” he commented.

“I’m scheduled to return to Earth in a few days for re-acc,” Kai said. “Re-acc,” or reacclimation, was required of all astronauts who performed long-term tours in space. It consisted of four weeks of rest, along with several medical exams to document any changes in the body resulting from long periods of zero-g such as loss of bone density, muscle deterioration, reduced lung capacity, or radiation exposure. “I’m determined to knock the docs on their butts in surprise.”

“Go get ’em, sir.”

Kai wore a pair of monitor glasses that allowed him to privately watch and listen to television while he exercised, and he usually watched American, British, and Asian news channels. It seemed the news was all about China these days-but, not surprisingly, there was nothing about the sub-launched antisatellite-missile test. China seemed to be on a public-relations and foreign-affairs blitz, especially in the United Nations General Assembly. Trade, energy, military concerns, economic development, peace initiatives-whatever the focus, China had a representative discussing it and investing huge sums of money in improving whatever they thought needed improving. Chinese money and Chinese projects were springing up everywhere, especially in the Middle East, South America, Africa, and even Russia, along with its traditional spheres of influence in Asia.

It was certainly not the traditional China, no longer isolated and low-key; and yet, Kai thought, it was still the same in many ways: China was still secretive, still inscrutable. Even though the news seemed to be “all China, all the time,” no one had any idea of any of the fundamental questions about China: What were their strategic goals? Who were their allies? In what direction did they want to go?

When Kai finished his routine and chalked up his scores on the exercise equipment for others to try to beat, he showered in the vacuum shower, put on a clean flight suit, and floated back into the command module. He found Hunter Noble at Valerie “Seeker” Lukas’s console, flipping through various sensor downloads. “What are you doing here?” he asked. “Aren’t you flying in a couple minutes?”

“Postponed,” Boomer replied. He hit a few keys and pulled up a live video feed of the New Mexico Spaceport at Roswell, New Mexico. “Major snowstorm at the primary landing site. They might move it somewhere else, so I’m waiting for word.” He looked at Raydon. “What are you doing up?”

“Couldn’t sleep.”

Boomer looked at Kai’s fingers, which always seemed to be twitching or tapping or fiddling with something-did this guy ever sleep? he asked himself. He must be a bundle of raw nervous energy. “Even with all this circadian-rhythm nonsense going on in here?” Boomer commented. He waved his hand around the command module. The lights had been dimmed because it was “nighttime,” the same as Washington, D.C. “Whose idea was it to create a daytime and nighttime on a space station anyway?”

“They’ve done numerous studies on crew performance in long-duration jobs like submarines as well as space travel,” Kai said, “and they all agree that humans need to keep a circadian rhythm-there has to be a day and night, and it has to be the proper seasonal length, or humans start to mentally malfunction.”

“Sounds like bull to me.”

“Try it sometime-when you’re on leave and not flying my spaceplanes.”

“I do it all the time,” Boomer said. “I play cards at night in Vegas because the dealers and pit bosses on the graveyard shift are usually less experienced. I can play, fly, and work whenever.”

“Cardplayer, huh?” Kai realized that he had been working off and on with Hunter Noble for the better part of four years, and he knew very little about the guy. “Are you any good?”

“I probably would make a decent living playing poker if I kept at it,” Boomer said. “It’s a numbers game, and I’m pretty good at numbers. My problem is, I can’t concentrate on cards too long. I see a pretty girl or start turning over an engineering problem in my head, and I get distracted. Not a good thing for the bottom line. You like cards, General?”

“I don’t even know any card games.”

“What do you like? Craps? Slots? Horses?”

“I think I’ve gambled a grand total of five hundred bucks in my entire lifetime, mostly pro football and basketball office pools,” Kai admitted. “And Vegas is just too intense. It’s just a huge waste of electricity if you ask me.”

“So what do you do for fun?”

“I keep a little fishing boat in Long Beach, cruise up and down the coast, sometimes to Mexico, scare some fish every now and then. If I go to Nevada, I’d rather go out into the mountains with a backpack and camera and do some photo-hunting.”

“Photo-hunting? You hunt for photos?”

“Real funny. No, I bring back photos of wild game centered in crosshairs, critters I would’ve bagged if I had a gun. I have photos on my wall instead of animal heads.”

“Why don’t you use a gun? And why bother hunting if you’re not going to kill anything?”

“I’ve been hunting since I was fourteen,” Kai said. “I used to go out with my grandfather and uncles a couple times a season-pheasant and deer mostly. But I remember trudging back to the camper one cold snowy weekend without seeing one bird, and one of my uncles was so frustrated that he put the muzzle of his shotgun up to a little bird sitting on a fence and pulled the trigger. That little bird disappeared in a puff of feathers. Never killed another animal after seeing that.”

“How very PETA-friendly of you, General,” Boomer said.

“But I missed being out in the wide open, especially after becoming an astronaut, so I decided to use a camera instead of a gun.”

“Sounds weird. But the boat sounds nice.”

“Haven’t been on it in a while.”

“Married? Kids?”

“Divorced. The ex tolerated the Air Force, disliked Houston and NASA politics, and hated the boat. Three strikes and she was out. No kids.”

“Any lady friends?”

Kai glanced at Boomer, obviously not comfortable talking about himself or about subjects like this. Perhaps, he thought, Noble was just realizing the same as he was a moment ago: They’d worked very closely together for years but knew very little about each other. Despite his discomfort, he resigned himself to answering anyway: “Plenty of ladies…no friends.”

“Copy that.”

The two fell silent for several moments; then Kai asked, “So did Seeker show you how to use her console?”

“Yeah. I peek into a few places now and then-the Strip, my condo complex, Hainan Island. The Chinese are sure acting restless, like they feel the need to show they won’t be pushed around, especially by us.”

“Agreed.” Kai punched in instructions into his console and studied the responses. “Hmm…no recent reports on the Chinese convoy heading to Tanzania.” He punched in more instructions. “They should be off the coast of Kenya by now, a couple hundred miles north of Mombasa. Let’s get an updated image…” Now the info he was getting made him look worried. “No recent reconnaissance patrol sightings? Do they have weather problems out there, too?”

He motioned for Boomer to switch seats with him so he could use Seeker’s console, then called up positions of all the reconnaissance satellites available in his system. “Twenty-six minutes to a TacSat-3 overflight; there’s a NOSS satellite in the area, but the Navy hasn’t let us get access to its data yet.” NOSS, or Naval Ocean Surveillance System, was a satellite that could locate ships at sea by collecting and tracking radio signals. “Now, why can’t we get any manned or unmanned recce photos?” In a separate window he made several queries for status information…and his jaw dropped in surprise. “Datalinks inactive off the southern coast of Somalia -no one’s been able to make radio or satellite contact in the past two hours.”

“Sunspots?”

“Might be, but I think solar-flare activity was supposed to be normal this week,” Kai said. He punched in still more instructions. “I’m getting stuff from the Gulf of Aden and Djibouti, but the Combined Task Force reports nothing from patrols in the Indian Ocean, with occasional outages and unreliable datalinks, so UAV overflights were postponed.”

“The eccentricities of electromagnetic propagation, no doubt.”

“The what?”

“Something a buddy once told me. His explanation of the unexplainable.”

“Whatever the hell it is, I don’t believe in it,” Kai said. “We’ll have to wait for the TacSat overflight.”

It was a long twenty-six minutes. Kai was so concerned about the alarm bells ringing in his head that he called several members of the day shift into the command module, including Seeker. He quickly filled her in as she checked her sensors and computers for any sign of malfunction. “All our equipment is fine, sir,” she reported. “We’re picking up UAV imagery from the Gulf of Aden, but nothing farther south. That’s not right.”

“Any contact from that Chinese convoy of ships heading to Tanzania?”

“No, sir,” she replied after checking the CTF status messages, “but the rest of the Combined Task Force is staying away from that convoy because the Chinese have all three of their ships and a couple planes guarding it-in fact, there are five Chinese ships in the area right now because they were in the process of patrol changeover. There are two destroyers, two frigates, and a supply ship escorting that convoy.”

“Pretty good timing-all that firepower arriving exactly when the convoy did.”

“It could explain the week delay in Pakistan,” Seeker offered. “Wait a week and get twice as many escorts.”

“Maybe. But I hate guessing and assuming.” He had to wait another two minutes until the TacSat-3 flew over where they expected the Chinese convoy to be. “Put in a call to the CTF-HOA operations center and ask them to-”

“Look!” Seeker exclaimed. The TacSat-3 hadn’t reached the proper viewing area off the coast of Kenya yet, but it didn’t need to…because the eleven-ship Chinese convoy was about forty miles off the coast of Mogadishu, Somalia! “That looks like the Chinese cargo-ship convoy! What are they doing so close to Mogadishu? They couldn’t all have been hijacked!”

“I’m no Marine, but if I didn’t know better, I’d say that was an amphibious invasion,” Kai said. “Get Camp Lemonier on the line, fast!”

“Nauert, AFRICOM, secure,” the NCOIC of AFRICOM responded after Seeker made the secure connection.

“Raydon, Space Defense Force, secure. Sergeant Major, are you getting reports from off the coast of Mogadishu?”

“We’ve had reported UAV datalink disruptions, so overflights in that area are grounded for now, sir,” the NCOIC of U.S. Africa Command in Ethiopia replied. “We’ve got several task-force ships and patrol aircraft in the area, but they’ve reported ops-normal for the past couple hours. We were going to launch a patrol plane to cover the area until we figured out what’s going on, but the Chinese say they’ll handle it. Why?”

“Are the task-force ships and aircraft in that area all Chinese?”

“Affirmative. What’s going on, General?”

“We just downloaded a TacSat-3 image of the area,” Kai explained. “TacSat is a small purpose-built satellite, launched just a couple days ago to help surveil the East Africa region. It operates on a discreet datalink frequency-you can’t get the imagery until we’re networked together.” He thought for a moment, then added, “And the Chinese might not have known about it, since it was launched recently and they don’t have access to it, so they couldn’t have had a chance to jam its datalink.”

“I’m not following you, sir.”

“Sergeant Major, we’ve detected eleven Chinese ships, including four warships, less than forty-five miles from Mogadishu, heading west at eleven knots. It looks like the Chinese convoy and the task-force ships guarding it are all heading straight for Mogadishu.”

Kai was very surprised at the sergeant major’s rather muted reaction-he said simply, “Please stand by, sir,” and the line went dead. “Alert Space Command and Air Force,” Kai said, “and put out a general warning to all MAJCOM headquarters in the clear, reporting a line of warships off the coast of Mogadishu heading west.”

A few moments later, General Thomas Greene, commander of U.S. Africa Command, came on the line himself. “Greene, AFRICOM, secure,” he said breathlessly, as if he had run a very long distance to answer the phone. “Raydon?”

“Raydon, Space Defense Force-”

“I don’t give a damn who you are!” Greene thundered. “Did you tell my sergeant major there was a convoy of Chinese warships heading for Mogadishu?”

“Affirmative, sir. I just put out a warning to Space Command and-”

“Who the hell do you think you are spouting off with that nonsense?” Greene cried. “I’m looking at the CTF reconnaissance reports, and there’s nothing out there! You’d better goddamned explain yourself, and quick!”

“Sir, you have no reconnaissance reports from the area because all of the patrol planes were grounded due to radio interference and poor datalink,” Kai explained. “The only other CTF vessels out there are Chinese, and they’re reporting ops-normal-because they are engineering this whole diversion.”

“What diversion?”

“Whatever the Chinese are up to, sir, they’ve managed to blank out all reconnaissance in the area, turn the convoy west, and are closing on Mogadishu,” Kai said.

“If there’s this big blackout like you said, how can you see it?”

“We used a small tactical satellite launched just days ago, which operates differently from other reconnaissance assets,” Kai said. “I think the Chinese didn’t know about it, or couldn’t do anything about it if they did. We just spotted the convoy minutes ago.”

“I want to see those pictures, now!”

“I’m going to have to route them to you through Space Command, since you’re not on our network. That’ll take a bit-”

“‘Not on your network’? What in hell does that mean?”

“It means my higher headquarters has to give you the pictures-I can’t do it directly,” Kai said. “But until then, may I suggest you get some eyes up there to verify this sighting, sir. If the Chinese are still jamming all transmissions in the area, they may have to-”

“I don’t need your suggestions, Raydon!” Greene shouted. “I want those pictures, and I want them now! And don’t be blabbing about this contact to anyone except your bosses until I get it confirmed! That’s an order!” And the connection went dead.

OFFICE OF THE PREMIER, BEIJING, CHINA

THAT SAME TIME

“You asked me to notify you when China is about to act,” Premier Zhou Qiang spoke.

“This Operation Lightning you messaged us about earlier?” asked Russia president Igor Truznyev, speaking on the secure direct “hotline” between each president’s office.

“Yes. It is under way. We have another mission under way as well. A clever officer in our Strategic Defense Forces corps calls it Operation Zu-qiu-Operation Soccer, what the Americans call ‘football.’”

“May I inquire as to what you intend to do with this Operation Soccer?”

“You will learn more soon, Mr. President,” Zhou said. “But I will tell you this: We shall see how the Americans take a kick.”

“Very clever.”

“We anticipate that Operation Lightning will be on station for seven days,” Zhou said, “after which time they will cycle in to Aden for refueling and replenishment.”

“We will be ready.”

“Very well. It is nice to be working with Russia again, Mr. President.”

“I would feel better about our new relationship if you would give me more details about this Operation Soccer,” Truznyev said.

“It is merely another attempt to dissuade President Gardner from expanding this space-weapon constellation,” Zhou said. “You will detect more shortly. Oh, and Mr. President?”

“Yes?”

“Please disregard any launch warnings coming from central Myanmar. Classify it as a petroleum plant explosion and fire.” He terminated the connection, then dialed another number on a different secure phone. “Minister Zung, you may give the order to proceed with Operation Zu-qiu.”