Executive Intent

REAL-WORLD NEWS EXCERPTS

U.S. PLANS FOR FUTURE WARS IN SPACE (www.Space.com, February 22, 2004): The U.S. Air Force has filed a futuristic flight plan, one that spells out need for an armada of space weaponry and technology for the near term and in years to come. Called the Transformation Flight Plan, the 176-page document offers a sweeping look at how best to expand America ’s military space tool kit.

…The CAV (Common Aero Vehicle) is an unpowered, maneuverable, hypersonic glide vehicle deployed in the 2010-2015 time period. The CAV could be delivered by a range of delivery vehicles from an expendable or reusable small launch vehicle to a fully reusable Space Operations Vehicle. It can guide and dispense conventional weapons, sensors, or other payloads worldwide from and through space within one hour of tasking. It would be able to strike a spectrum of targets, including mobile targets, mobile time-sensitive targets, strategic relocatable targets, or fixed hard and deeply buried targets. The CAV’s speed and maneuverability would combine to make defenses against it extremely difficult…

SINO-RUSSIAN MILITARY MANEUVERS: A THREAT TO U.S. INTERESTS IN EURASIA (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., and John J. Tkacik Jr., www.Heritage.org, September 30, 2005): Peace Mission 2005, the unprecedented Sino-Russian joint military exercises held on August 18-25, should raise concerns in Washington. The war games are a logical outcome of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation, signed in 2001, and the shared worldview and growing economic ties between the two giant powers…

The Russian daily Nezavismaya Gazeta was more blunt about the purpose of the war games: This is above all an assault on the unipolar world that has so suited Washington since the end of the Cold War. Chinese commentators were similarly frank. Jin Canrong, professor of international relations at the People’s University of China, stated that the main target is the United States. Both sides want to improve their bargaining position in terms of security, politics, and economics. As Pravda.ru announced, “The reconciliation between China and Russia has been driven in part by mutual unease at U.S. power…”

RUSSIA NEGOTIATES SALE OF 50 SU-33 FIGHTERS TO CHINA (Sinodefence.com, October 27, 2006): Russia and China are finalizing negotiations for the delivery of up to fifty Su-33 carrier-based jet fighters, at a cost of US$2.5 billion.

China is expected to initially get two Su-33 jets to be used for evaluation and operational trials on the ex-Soviet carrier Varyag China acquired from the Ukraine in 1999. The carrier is currently stationed at China ’s Dalian Shipyard, being refitted since 2002. Once commissioned to service, the carrier will be able to operate the twelve aircraft of Su-33, which are included as the first-option part of the current program.

Eventually China could buy up to fifty aircraft of this type, to equip the first indigenous Chinese-built aircraft carrier expected by 2010.

CHINA ’S ASAT TEST WILL INTENSIFY U.S.-CHINA FACE-OFF IN SPACE (Aviation Week and Space Technology, January 21, 2007): China ’s successful test of an antisatellite (ASAT) weapon means that the country has mastered key space sensor, tracking, and other technologies important for advanced military space operations. China can now also use “space control” as a policy weapon to help project its growing power regionally and globally.

…Although more of a “policy weapon” at this time, the Chinese ASAT shows that the Chinese military can credibly threaten imaging reconnaissance and other satellites operated by the United States, Japan, Russia, Israel, and Europe…

THE WEAPONIZATION OF SPACE (www.Stratfor.com, April 10, 2008):…The Pentagon intends to dominate space the same way it dominates the world’s oceans: largely passively, allowing the free flow of international traffic, but with overwhelming and unchallenged military superiority. That will include not only defending assets in space, but holding those of a potential adversary at risk…

But the trajectory of development and the challenges that lie ahead will sooner or later dictate space-based weapons platforms. (BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] is just one of a variety of potential justifications and applications.) And since the United States intends to ensure that its dominance in space remains unrivaled, it will move preemptively to consolidate that control. At some point, that will include actual weapons in space.

As has been said of other matters, the debate is over. Space is an integral part of U.S. military fighting capability, and therefore in all practical terms it has been weaponized.

DECADE FORECAST 2005-2015 (www.Stratfor.com):…Russia is the only competitor with an outside shot of actually reforming its existing space program to the point of creating a near-global, near-real-time reconnaissance system. Add this to existing ballistic-missile technology, and a space-capable Moscow would pose a genuine threat to U.S. hegemony…

Of course, geopolitical and military alliances between any of these rivals could accelerate indigenous programs and capabilities. It is worth noting that Russia has made a virtual cottage industry out of exporting its own space expertise and technology to countries such as India, China, and Iran…

THE LASER GUN TAKES FLIGHT (www.popsci.com, November 10, 2008):…The first successful test of a plane-mounted laser gun came on August 7, when Boeing’s eighteen-ton chemical laser fired a beam from a C-130H aircraft and destroyed a three-by-three-foot target on the ground. It was the first time all of the ATL’s lab-tested pieces came together to vaporize a target…

RUSSIA SET TO BUILD NEW AIRCRAFT CARRIER (RIA Novosti, March 3, 2009): Russia ’s state-controlled United Shipbuilding Corporation (USBC) has disclosed some specifications of a new-generation aircraft carrier currently being developed for the country’s navy.

It appears that the new warship will closely resemble advanced NATO carriers also displacing sixty thousand metric tons. This revelation has been indirectly confirmed by media reports about the interest of Russia ’s top naval brass in the projects of France ’s Thales, a leading developer of advanced CVF carriers for the British Royal Navy and PA-2 carriers for the French navy.

Her dimensions will match those of the PA-2 with a standard displacement of fifty-nine thousand metric tons, while her full displacement will total seventy-five thousand metric tons. Unlike the French carrier, which will have a gas-turbine propulsion unit, the Russian ship will be powered by a nuclear reactor and will have a different air wing.

…The sufficiently large new-generation carrier will accommodate an air wing comprising thirty to thirty-six heavy-duty fighters, not to mention aircraft of other types.

A mixed air wing comprising twenty-four heavy-duty and twenty-four lightweight planes, including MiG-29Ks or advanced lightweight fighters, can also be deployed on-board the carrier, whose deck and hangars will also accommodate Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), helicopters, and auxiliary multirole planes.

CHINA READIES MILITARY SPACE STATION; LAUNCH COINCIDES WITH SHUTTLE PHASE-OUT (Craig Co-vault, Spaceflight Now, March 2, 2009): China is aggressively accelerating the pace of its manned space program by developing a seventeen-thousand-pound man-tended military space laboratory planned for launch by late 2010. The mission will coincide with a halt in U.S. manned flight with phase-out of the shuttle.

…Importantly, China is openly acknowledging that the new Tiangong outpost will involve military space operations and technology development.

Also the fact it has been given a number one numerical designation indicates that China may build more than one such military space laboratory in the coming years…

RUSSIA BUILDING ANTISATELLITE WEAPONS (Associated Press, March 5, 2009): Moscow-Russia is working on antisatellite weapons to match technologies developed by other nations and will speed up modernization of its nuclear forces, a deputy defense minister was quoted as saying Thursday.

The statement by General Valentin Popovkin signaled the government’s intention to pursue its ambitious plans to strengthen the military despite the money crunch caused by a worsening financial crisis…

Popovkin said Russia continues to oppose a space arms race but will respond to moves made by other countries, according to Russian news reports…

DOD QUESTIONS GROWING CHINESE POWER (Associated Press, March 25, 2009): Washington – China is increasing its military power more rapidly and developing new “disruptive technologies” that are shifting the military balance in East Asia and possibly beyond, a Pentagon report said.

“…its armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies…that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region,” the report said. It said that included technologies for nuclear, space, and cyberwarfare…

CHINA ADDS PRECISION STRIKE TO CAPABILITIES (Defense Technology International, April 8, 2009): China has been developing and purchasing weapons for precision-strike warfare…The PLA’s (Chinese People’s Liberation Army) near-term goals appear to be greater asymmetric capabilities to target U.S. naval assets in the western Pacific and in space as part of an antiaccess strategy…

…A far less-noted potential co-orbital ASAT demonstration occurred on September 27, 2008, when the Shenzhou-7 manned spacecraft, which had just launched a BX-1 nanosatellite, passed within forty-five kilometers (twenty-eight miles) of the International Space Station…

…The U.S. and Japanese navies have long been concerned with the PLA program to create an antiship ballistic missile, by placing a maneuverable terminally guided warhead on the 2,400-kilometer-range DF-21, and likely, on the 600-kilometer DF-15. Asian military sources are also concerned that a new 3,000-kilometer version of the DF-21 may have multiple terminally guided warheads…

CHINESE NAVY REQUIRES SUPERCRUISING FIGHTER (Aviation Week’s Defense Technology International, April 27, 2009): A supercruising combat aircraft is a high priority of the Chinese navy, the country’s top admiral says in a revealing official interview that gives strong clues of perceived shortcomings and future directions for the maritime force.

Admiral Wu Shengli also says China must step up work on precision missiles that can overcome enemy defenses, and the nation should move faster in developing large combat surface ships-probably meaning the aircraft-carrier program that looks increasingly imminent.

…For the Chinese navy, one advantage of supercruising would be the ability to cover a large defensive area in less time-quite useful if the imagined target is a U.S. carrier group at long range.

…“We must develop new-generation weapons such as large surface combat ships, stealthy long-endurance submarines, supercruising combat aircraft, precision long-range missiles that can penetrate defenses, as well as deep-diving, fast, and intelligent torpedoes, and electronic combat equipment offering compatibility and commonality.”

JAPAN: THE MILITARY EXPLOITATION OF SPACE (www.Stratfor.com, July 19, 2009): The Japanese Ministry of Defense’s annual white paper on defense was released July 17, making it explicit-for the first time-that Japan recognizes the need to develop space-based systems specifically for military purposes…

…This will further solidify the JSDF as one of the most technologically advanced and capable military forces in the world, and it will give it the tools to better monitor and secure Japan ’s global interests. But it will not happen in a vacuum. Japan ’s space program, combined with a concerted-and often clandestine-Chinese effort, could mean that a space race is heating up in East Asia.

CHINA DELIVERS FRIGATE TO PAKISTAN (www.Stratfor.com, July 30, 2009): China delivered the first of four F-22P frigates to Pakistan, Dawn News reported July 30, citing a Pakistani naval spokesman. Each warship will carry a helicopter, surface-to-surface missiles, and surface-to-air missiles.

CHINA LAUNCHES LONG-RANGE WAR GAMES (Associated Press, August 12, 2009): Beijing – China ’s military launched war games Tuesday aimed at deploying forces at long distances…

The exercises will send fifty thousand armored troops-the People’s Liberation Army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise”-to unfamiliar areas far from their bases for two months of live-fire drills, state media reported.

…“In the unprecedented exercise, one of the PLA’s major objectives will be to improve its capacity of long-range projection,” the official Xinhua News Agency said. It said the war games constituted the army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise…”

The 2.3-million-member PLA is the world’s largest standing military.

…The PLA has undergone a rapid upgrade in recent years in both equipment and doctrine. Two decades of almost annual double-digit increases in military spending have allowed the addition of cutting-edge fighter jets, nuclear submarines, and hundreds of ballistic missiles… China has announced a 14.9 percent rise in military spending in its 2009 budget, to 480.6 billion yuan (US$70.3 billion).

…The military has also taken steps to emerge from its traditional veil of secrecy and engage with other nations, most strikingly in sending ships to join the international antipiracy flotilla off the coast of Somalia this year.

COMMENTARY: PAKISTAN NUKE THEFTS FOILED (UPI, August 12, 2009): Washington -… Pakistan ’s secret nuclear storage sites are known to Islamist extremists and have been attacked at least three times over the last two years, according to two recent reputable reports.

…The first such attack against the nuclear-missile storage facility was on November 1, 2007, at Sargodha; the second, by a suicide bomber, occurred December 10, 2007, against Pakistan’s nuclear air base at Kamra; and the third and most alarming was launched August 20, 2008, by several suicide bombers who blew up key entry points to a nuclear-weapons complex at the Wah cantonment, long believed to be one of Pakistan’s main nuclear-weapons assembly points, where warheads and launchers come together in a national emergency…

…While not denying the three incidents, Pakistan has said repeatedly that its nuclear weapons are fully secured and there is no chance of them falling into the hands of Islamist extremists…

CHINA: U.S. SHOULD STOP MILITARY SURVEILLANCE OFF COAST (www.Stratfor.com, August 28, 2009): The Chinese Defense Ministry said August 28 that “the root cause of problems between the navies and air forces” of China and the United States is the “constant” U.S. military surveillance off China ’s coast, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a ministry statement. The ministry said that to avoid Chinese-U.S. maritime incidents, the United States should “decrease and eventually stop” its surveillance and survey operations. The spokeswoman for the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Susan Stevenson, said the United States “exercises its freedom of navigation of the seas under international law, while putting emphasis on avoiding any unwanted incidents.”

U.S., AUSTRALIA: MILITARIES TO ASK CHINA TO JOIN EXERCISES (www.Stratfor.com, September 2, 2009):…U.S. Pacific Command chief Admiral Timothy Keating and Australian Defense Force leader Angus Houston met in Sydney on September 2 and agreed to ask China to hold exercises and develop military ties “at the earliest opportunity.” The United States and Australia want to understand China ’s intentions, as both countries are concerned that China ’s military buildup might have purposes other than defense.

RUSSIA TO REVAMP AIR-SPACE DEFENSES (RIA Novosti, August 11, 2009): Moscow – Russia will create a new generation of air and space defenses to counter any strikes against its territory due to a potential foreign threat, the air force commander said on Tuesday.

“Foreign countries, particularly the United States, will be able to deliver coordinated high-precision strikes from air and space against any target on the whole territory of Russia,” Colonel General Alexander Zelin said, referring to the potential for new hypersonic and space-based offensive weapons.

“That is why the main goal of the development of the Russian air force is to create a new branch of the armed forces, which would form the core of the country’s air and space defenses to provide a reliable deterrent during peacetime, and repel any military aggression with the use of conventional and nuclear arsenals in a time of war,” the general said.

…The Soviet-era MiG-31 Foxhound supersonic interceptor aircraft will most likely be used as part of the new air-space defense network, as was intended when it was designed. “We are upgrading this system to be able to accomplish the same [air-space defense] tasks,” Zelin said. According to some sources, Russia has over 280 MiG-31 aircraft in active service and about 100 aircraft in reserve.

CHINA, RUSSIA: SHIPS TO CONDUCT JOINT EXERCISES OFF SOMALI COAST (www.Stratfor.com, September 17, 2009): Chinese and Russian ships, on antipiracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, plan to hold joint exercises, called “Blue Peace Shield 2009,” on September 18, testing communications links, simulating operations to identify vessels, and coordinating resupply methods, the Associated Press reported September 17.

CHINA SAYS MILITARY ARSENAL COMPARABLE WITH WEST (Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, September 21, 2009): Beijing-China’s military now possesses most of the sophisticated weapon systems found in the arsenals of developed Western nations, the country’s defense minister said in comments published Monday.

Many of China ’s systems, including the J-10 fighter jet, latest-generation tanks, navy destroyers, and cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles, match or are close to matching the capabilities of those in the West, Liang Guanglie said in a rare interview posted on the ministry’s Web site. “This is an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the level of our military’s modernization and the huge change in our country’s technological strength,” Liang said.

… China ’s improved capabilities are also seen as emboldening the country’s military and civilian leaders in using force to back up political and territorial claims. Chinese ships have repeatedly harassed U.S. Navy surveillance vessels collecting intelligence off China ’s southeastern coast, while Chinese submarines have aggressively pursued aircraft-carrier battle groups.

…Analysts say the odds of conflict with the United States, Japan, and other regional militaries is likely to increase as China further beefs up its arsenal…

RUSSIA: PRESIDENT PROMISES REBUILT NAVY IN 10 YEARS (www.Stratfor.com, September 28, 2009): Russian president Dmitri Medvedev said during a meeting with military personnel that Russia will rebuild its naval fleet within ten years, RIA Novosti reported September 28…

CHINA: BEIJING TO BUILD LARGE DESTROYERS (www.Stratfor.com, October 9, 2009): Beijing plans to build a new generation of large destroyers as part of its effort to develop a modern blue-water navy, South China Morning Press reported October 9. The destroyers will displace more than ten thousand tons, according to a report by the China Shipbuilding Information Center -an institute under the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest state-owned shipbuilder in China. According to the report, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hopes the new destroyers-that will feature fully developed stealth technology-will close the gap in combat capability between the Chinese and Western navies.

U.S.: ADMIRAL CONCERNED ABOUT CHINA MILITARY BUILDUP (www.Stratfor.com, October 30, 2009): U.S. Rear Admiral Kevin Donegan said the United States wants to ensure that China’s unprecedented rate of military expansion doesn’t destabilize the region as China’s spending was up almost 15 percent in 2009, the Associated Press reported October 30…Donegan, commander of the USS George Washington, acknowledged the possibility of a Chinese aircraft carrier, stating concerns about antiaccess weapons…

CHINA: PAKISTAN TO BUY J-10 FIGHTERS-PAKISTANI OFFICIALS (www.Stratfor.com, November 10, 2009): China agreed to sell Pakistan two squadrons of J-10 fighters for as much as $1.4 billion, the Financial Times reported November 10, citing Pakistani and Western officials. A Pakistani official said more sales may follow, but denied that a deal had been made to buy up to 150 fighters. The Pakistani air force expects to buy at least 250 JF-17 Thunder fighters in the next four to five years. A Western official in Islamabad said Iran and Middle Eastern countries can find Western-like technology in China purchases; he added that Pakistan ’s purchase is a test case for the region.