The Hawk Is Dead

28

Wednesday 22 November 2023

Grace told Magellan-Lacey the opinion of the ballistics expert.

‘But he could be wrong about the shooter’s lair, right?’ the Master replied. ‘Other than the flattened grass — which could have been done by a trainspotter, or a bird watcher, or a courting couple, just about anyone — you found no hard evidence that anyone had fired a gun from that spot.’

‘We didn’t, no,’ Grace said.

‘So it is possible the shooter was much further away, which could account for them hitting the wrong person?’

‘I’m not ruling anything out at this stage, Sir Tommy,’ he replied, slightly distracted — as well as cringingly embarrassed — by Branson, who had unsuccessfully dunked a biscuit in his coffee and was now trying to spoon out the soggy, broken-off mess. ‘But if we look at the situation as a whole we have two events — the derailment of the train and the shooting of the Private Secretary. In my view they are very likely linked.’

Magellan-Lacey looked alarmed. ‘You’ve had it confirmed the derailment was not an accident?’

Both detectives nodded, although Branson was still preoccupied salvaging his coffee — or his biscuit. Grace answered. ‘British Transport Police have not yet completed their investigations, but they believe the derailment was caused by a length of spare rail being placed across the path of the Royal Train.’

‘By the anti-monarchy protestors?’

Grace looked dubious. ‘There are two factors here. The first is that our intelligence on the anti-monarchist movement tells us they are non-violent. Derailing the train is a whole different league.’

‘Do you think these people were trying to assassinate Her Majesty by derailing the train?’ the Master asked.

‘I’m told we were very fortunate that the driver was able to slow down from 70mph to 40mph after receiving a warning of an obstruction on the track. Had the train derailed at the higher speed, there would likely have been multiple casualties — and by that I mean fatalities.’

The Master’s face blanched. ‘Do you think we’re dealing with a terrorist organization?’

‘It’s a possibility we can’t rule out, sir, but I don’t think so. I believe we are dealing with someone who knows about trains, because of the way this was handled. I’ve been informed that if a metal object is put across the track and touches the live rail, the signalling centre — in this case at Three Bridges — gets an immediate alert. The signaller responsible for that section of line would then warn the driver of an obstruction ahead, which is what happened in this case. Only the warning wasn’t soon enough for the driver to stop.’

‘But at least he managed to slow down a fair bit, thank heavens,’ the Master said. ‘But what makes you think whoever carried out this sabotage knows about trains?’

‘It’s not easy to derail a rain,’ Glenn Branson said. ‘I spoke to the senior instructor on Network Rail yesterday: the weight of a train would crush most objects put across the rail — scaffold poles, corrugated iron, the sort of thing that idiotic vandals often put on the rails. The one thing that would stand up to the weight of a train is a length of actual rail — but it is extremely heavy.’

‘How many would it need to lift it?’

‘I did the maths,’ Branson replied, frowning glumly at his coffee, which now looked like a disaster zone. ‘A metre of track weighs about fifty kilograms. It was a length of almost two metres that was used.’

Sir Tommy looked like he was doing a mental calculation. ‘That’s a hundred kilograms — about sixteen stone — the weight of a pretty hefty human being.’

‘But if it had been placed upright against the tunnel wall — which is only a few feet from the track, one strong person could easily topple it, making it fall onto the track.’

The Master frowned again. ‘So it would have taken only one person in the tunnel to push it over to cause the derailment?’

‘Yes, sir,’ Branson said. ‘I spoke to a manager — a Christopher New — at Three Bridges who told me there was a fifteen-minute gap between a southbound express train exiting the south entrance to Clayton Tunnel and the Royal Train entering the north entrance. Yet the line fault signal was triggered only three minutes before the Royal Train entered. Either whoever was in the tunnel struggled to topple the rail,’ Branson posited, ‘or it was deliberate timing.’

‘Which is my hypothesis,’ Grace said. ‘They wanted to derail the train but they wanted to slow it down enough to avoid casualties.’

The Master looked baffled. ‘Why on earth — I mean — this is not making any sense to me.’

Grace shrugged. ‘You’re a former general and you were in combat many times in your career, in war zones, both on land and in helicopters. I read your background — it is extremely impressive.’

‘Thank you, but what’s your point?’

‘My point is you must have used many different strategies, sir. Did you ever use the one called “strategic ambiguity”?’

‘Of course. It’s a tactic to confuse or mislead an opponent, by keeping intentions ambiguous.’

‘I would say that’s what was in play with the derailment. It had an apparent purpose and a hidden purpose. The apparent was to stop The Queen’s visit to Sussex. But I think the hidden purpose wasn’t that at all. It was to get everyone off the train and out into the open, where the Private Secretary could then be shot, while everyone would think, as with the derailment, that Her Majesty was the target.’