The New Digital Age

CHAPTER 4

THE FUTURE OF REVOLUTION

countries coming online have incredibly young populations: See low Internet penetration in 2011 for Ethiopia, Pakistan and the Philippines in “Percentage of Individuals Using the Internet,” International Telecommunication Union (ITU), ICT Data and Statistics (IDS), accessed October 16, 2012, http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/, and young populations for those countries as of 2011 in “Mid-Year Population by Five Year Age Groups and Sex—Custom Region—Ethiopia, Pakistan, Philippines,” U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed October 16, 2012, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/region.php.

women were able to play a much greater role: Courtney C. Radsch, “Unveiling the Revolutionaries: Cyberactivism and the Role of Women in the Arab Uprisings,” James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, May 17, 2012; Jeff Falk, “Social Media, Internet Allowed Young Arab Women to Play a Central Role in Arab Spring,” May 24, 2012, Rice University, News and Media, http://news.rice.edu/2012/05/24/social-media-and-the-internet-allowed-young-arab-women-to-play-a-central-role-in-the-arab-spring-uprisings-new-rice-study-says-2/; Women and the Arab Spring: Taking Their Place?, International Federation for Human Rights, accessed November 4, 2012, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/document/activities/cont/201206/20120608ATT46510/20120608ATT46510EN.pdf; Lauren Bohn, “Women and the Arab Uprisings: 8 ‘Agents of Change’ to Follow,” CNN, February 3, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/03/world/africa/women-arab-uprisings/index.html.

small groups of protesters nearly every morning: Ministers in the transitional government in Tripoli in discussion with the authors, January 2012.

Al Jazeera English was quick to report on the number of protester deaths: “Fresh Protests Erupt in Syria,” Al Jazeera, last updated April 8, 2011, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/201148104927711611.html.

Al Jazeera Arabic website did not: David Pollock, “Al Jazeera: One Organization, Two Messages,” Washington Institute, Policy Analysis, April 28, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/aljazeera-one-organization-two-messages.

the disparity was due to the Arabic station’s political deference to Iran: Ibid.

they acknowledged similar grievances: Activists from the Jasmine Revolution in discussion with the authors, January 2012.

Twitter account started by a twenty-something graduate student: Stephan Faris, “Meet the Man Tweeting Egypt’s Voices to the World,” Time, February 1, 2011, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045489,00.html.

posted updates about the protests: Ibid.

@Jan25voices Twitter handle was a major conduit of information: Ibid.

Andy Carvin, who curated one of the most important streams of information: Andy Carvin, interview by Robert Siegel, “The Revolution Will Be Tweeted,” NPR, February 21, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133943604/The-Revolution-Will-Be-Tweeted.

they had formed the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Benghazi: “Anti-Gaddafi Figures Say Form National Council,” Reuters, February 27, 2011, Africa edition, http://af.reuters.com/article/idAFWEB194120110227.

prominent opposition figures, regime defectors, a former army official, academics, attorneys, politicians and business leaders: Dan Murphy, “The Members of Libya’s National Transitional Council,” Christian Science Monitor, September 2, 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0902/The-members-of-Libya-s-National-Transitional-Council; David Gritten, “Key Figures in Libya’s Rebel Council,” BBC, August 25, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12698562.

Citizens continued to protest the government: “Tunisia’s Leaders Resign from Ruling Party,” NPR, January 20, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/01/20/133083002/tunisias-leaders-resign-from-ruling-party; Christopher Alexander, “Après Ben Ali: Déluge, Democracy, or Authoritarian Relapse?,” Middle East Channel (blog), Foreign Policy, January 24, 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/24/apres_ben_ali_deluge_democracy_or_authoritarian_relapse.

“victim of the ministry of the interior”: conversation with Tunisian prime minister Hamadi Jebali, January 2012.

spent fourteen years in prison: David D. Kirkpatrick, “Opposition in Tunisia Finds Chance for Rebirth,” New York Times, January 20, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/world/africa/21islamist.html?pagewanted=all; Tarek Amara and Mariam Karouny, “Tunisia Names New Government, Scraps Secret Police,” Reuters, March 8, 2011, http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-55387920110307?irpc=984.

“It is hard to imagine de Gaulles and Churchills appealing”: Henry Kissinger in discussion with the authors, December 2011.

“If you are a revolutionary, show us your capabilities”: Mahmoud Salem, “Chapter’s End!,” Rantings of a Sandmonkey (blog), June 18, 2012, http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/06/18/chapters-end/.

He exhorted street activists to participate in governance: Mahmoud Salem, “For the Light to Come Back,” Rantings of a Sandmonkey (blog), March 30, 2012, http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/03/30/for-the-light-to-come-back/.

Tina Rosenberg’s book Join the Club: For a more detailed interpretation of Tina Rosenberg’s Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform the World, see Saul Austerlitz, “Power of Persuasion: Tina Rosenberg’s Join the Club,” review, The National (Abu Dhabi), February 25, 2011, http://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/books/power-of-persuasion-tina-rosenbergs-join-the-club#full; Jeffrey D. Sachs, “Can Social Networking Cure Social Ills?,” review, New York Times, May 20, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/books/review/book-review-join-the-club-by-tina-rosenberg.html?pagewanted=all; Thomas Hodgkinson, “Join the Club by Tina Rosenberg—Review,” Guardian (Manchester), September 1, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/sep/02/join-club-tina-rosenberg-review; and Steve Wein-berg, “C’mon, Everyone’s Doing It,” review, Bookish (blog), Houston Chronicle, March 27, 2011, http://blog.chron.com/bookish/2011/03/cmon-everyones-doing-it-a-review-of-tina-rosenbergs-new-book/.

Perhaps the most compelling evidence: Tina Rosenberg, Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform the World (New York: W. W. Norton and Co., 2011).

powerful story of Serbian activists from the past training future activists around the world: Ibid., 278–82, 332–36.

they subsequently reoccupied Tahrir Square: “Egypt Anti-Military Protesters Fill Tahrir Square,” BBC, June 22, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18547371; Aya Batrawy, Associated Press (AP), “Egypt Protests: Thousands Gather in Tahrir Square to Demonstrate Against Military Rule,” Huffington Post, April 20, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/20/egypt-protests-tahrir-square_n_1439802.html; Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill, “Scorecard: Egypt Since the Revolution,” Al Jazeera, last updated January 24, 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/01/20121227117613598.html; “Egypt Protests: Death Toll Up in Cairo’s Tahrir Square,” BBC, November 20, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15809739.

Iranian regime during the 2009 postelection protests: Christopher Rhoads, Geoffrey A. Fowler, and Chip Cummins, “Iran Cracks Down on Internet Use, Foreign Media,” Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124519888117821213.html.

Egyptian regime effectively shut down all Internet and mobile connections: James Cowie, “Egypt Leaves the Internet,” Renesys (blog), January 27, 2011, http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/01/egypt-leaves-the-internet.shtml.

exception to this all-ISP block: James Cowie, “Egypt Returns to the Internet,” Renesys (blog), February 2, 2011, http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/02/egypt-returns-to-the-internet.shtml.

The country’s four main Internet service providers: Cowie, “Egypt Leaves the Internet,” http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/01/egypt-leaves-the-internet.shtml.

mobile-phone service was also suspended: Associated Press (AP), “Vodafone: Egypt Ordered Cell Phone Service Stopped,” Huffington Post, January 28, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/vodafone-egypt-service-dropped_n_815493.html.

Vodafone Egypt, issued a statement that morning: “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see January 28, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html.

fiber-optic cables housed in one building in Cairo: James Glanz and John Markoff, “Egypt Leaders Found ‘Off’ Switch for Internet,” New York Times, February 15, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/technology/16internet.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.

through its state-owned company Telecom Egypt, physically cut their service: Ibid.

It was a move unprecedented in recent history: Parmy Olson, “Egypt Goes Dark, Cuts Off Internet and Mobile Networks,” Forbes, January 28, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2011/01/28/egypt-goes-dark/.

“Hitting one hundred percent of the population”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.

“We might not have liked the request”: Ibid.; see also, “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see January 28, 2011–February 3, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html.

send out its messages over the companies’ short-message-service (SMS) platform: “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see February 3, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html; Jonathan Browning, “Vodafone Says It Was Instructed to Send Pro-Mubarak Messages to Customers,” Bloomberg, February 3, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/vodafone-ordered-to-send-egyptian-government-messages-update1-.html.

“But at a point it became incredibly political and one-sided”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.

“Vodafone Group PLC”—the parent company—“put out a statement”: Ibid.

French Data Network, opened up Internet access: Jonathan Browning, “Google, Twitter Offer Egyptians Option to Tweet,” Bloomberg, February 1, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/egyptians-turn-to-dial-up-service-to-get-around-government-s-web-shutdown.html.

Google launched a tweet-by-phone service: Ujjwal Singh and AbdelKarim Mardini, “Some Weekend Work That Will (Hopefully) Enable More Egyptians to Be Heard,” Google Blog, January 31, 2011, http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/some-weekend-work-that-will-hopefully.html.

“We decided that this has to be discussed”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.

Egyptian police’s vice squad would troll chat rooms: In a Time of Torture: The Assault on Justice in Egypt’s Crackdown on Homosexual Conduct, Human Rights Watch (HRW): 2004, http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2004/02/29/time-torture.

Cairo vice squad raided a floating nightclub: Ibid.; “Egypt: Egyptian Justice on Trial—The Case of the Cairo 52,” International Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission, October 15, 2001, http://www.iglhrc.org/cgi-bin/iowa/article/takeaction/partners/692.html.

a Chinese version of the protests: Andrew Jacobs, “Chinese Government Responds to Call for Protests,” New York Times, February 20, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/asia/21china.html?_r=1.

retaliated against a group of women: “Rights Group Decries Flogging Sentence for Female Saudi Driver,” CNN, September 27, 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-09-27/middleeast/world_meast_saudi-arabia-flogging_1_flogging-sentence-women2drive-saudi-woman?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST.

As news of her sentence spread: Ibid.; Amnesty International (AI), “Flogging Sentence for Saudi Arabian Woman After Driving ‘Beggars Belief,’ ” press release, September 27, 2011, https://www.amnesty.org/en/for-media/press-releases/flogging-sentence-saudi-arabian-woman-after-driving-%E2%80%9Cbeggars-belief%E2%80%9D-2011-0.

led the government to revoke the decision: “Saudi King Revokes Flogging of Female Driver,” CNN, September 29, 2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/28/world/meast/saudi-arabia-flogging/index.html.

a decision to ban a satirical short film: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud in discussion with the authors, February 2011; Faisal J. Abbas, “Monopoly: The Saudi Short-Film Which Went a Long Way,” Huffington Post, September 9, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/faisal-abbas/monopoly-the-saudi-shortf_b_969540.html.

The film, Monopoly, appeared on YouTube: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud in discussion with the authors, February 2011. The film appeared on both Facebook and YouTube. The prince discussed the Facebook appearance of the video.

accumulated more than a million views: Ibid.

one of the highest rates of YouTube playbacks: “Saudi Arabia Ranks First in YouTube Views,” Al Arabiya, May 22, 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/05/22/215774.html; Simon Owens, “Saudi Satire Ignites YouTube’s Massive Growth in Middle East,” U.S. News, May 30, 2012, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/05/30/saudi-satire-ignites-youtubes-massive-growth-in-middle-east.

fastest growing mobile market anywhere: African Mobile Observatory 2011: Driving Economic and Social Development Through Mobile Services, Groupe Speciale Mobile (GSM), 9, accessed October 17, 2011, http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/africamobileobservatory2011-1.pdf.

“The Internet is good for letting off steam”: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.

Young people everywhere: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s assertion that young people want to be cool is supported by Tina Rosenberg’s discussion of the need to be cool as a key part of Otpor’s strategy, which it has taught to opposition groups around the world. For examples of the “coolness factor” in Otpor, see Rosenberg, Join the Club, 223–224, 229, 256–58, 260, 276.

“Currygate”: Shamim Adam, “Singapore Curry Protest Heats Up Vote with Facebook Campaign,” Bloomberg, August 19, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/singapore-curry-protest-heats-up-vote.html; “Singaporeans to Launch Largest ‘Protest’ over ‘Currygate’ Incident,” TR Emeritus (blog), August 21, 2011, http://www.tremeritus.com/2011/08/21/singaporeans-to-launch-largest-protest-over-currygate-incident/.

“A Chinese immigrant and a Singaporean of Indian descent quarreled”: Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.

almost a billion Chinese citizens: Michael Kan, International Data Group (IDG) News Service, “China’s Internet Population Reaches 538 Million,” July 19, 2012, PCWorld, http://www.pcworld.com/article/259482/chinas_internet_population_reaches_538_million.html; at the time of writing, China’s population exceeded 1.3 billion, so there were approximately 800 million Chinese citizens left to become connected. We factored in population increase projections over the next decade to estimate almost a billion. According to a 2012 report from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Eritrea was most censored, followed by North Korea.

“What happens in China is beyond anyone’s full control”: Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.

“The history of revolutions is a confluence”: Henry Kissinger in discussion with the authors, December 2011.