The Other Russia

THEORY OF THE SECOND RUSSIA

Today all the chances of seizing the power in the RF by legal methods are equal to none. NBP has not enough people yet and doesn’t have the necessary experience. If we are going to rebel in the RF, we will be crushed in a few days. We need a Second Russia.

But, first of all, let’s think about the way in which a Russian political organization decided to fight, should behave. An organization that is ready for a fight similar to the fights of Mao and Che has, nevertheless, to keep it from a ban and repressions against its members by any means. A legal organization will be vitally needed; we could draw from it, as from a recruitment center, people who already share our views. The legal organization will continue to translate the ideas and the ideology, distribute the newspaper and have the possibility to participate in the elections and all the legal political unions, to carry out legal political actions such as marches, meetings, pickets and other traditional political actions.

Then, from the start we need to push aside pure terror as a method of seizing the power. Terrorist methods didn’t bring to power the “Red Brigades”, nor the “RAF” in Germany. Only guerilla warfare that later transforms itself into a civil war leads to the seizure of power. This is classic. This was already thought by Lenin and later classically confirmed by Mao and on a more modest scale, Castro and Che. Another thing is that guerrilla warfare in Germany and Italy of the 70s and 80s was impossible, so the RAF and “the Red Brigades” had to follow terrorism, hoping to awake the rising of the masses. And how could the RAF and “the Red Brigades” wage guerilla warfare? In the old mountains of Italy? In the asphalt plains of Germany?

And finally, the principal: If it’s impossible to win in the RF, we first need to win in on of the CIS republics with a high enough rate of Russian population; to create a second Russia, so as to turn it later against the first one. Naturally, guerilla warfare has to be taken outside of RF borders. To found a partisan base somewhere near the RF border, but already on the territory of any CIS republic, after a thorough selection. The military operations have to unfold against the government of the “republic” and not against the RF government. In this case, it’s possible to have a lot of obvious advantages:

1. We won’t have to confront the Russian army, which would have been a fratricidal war. With that, the Russian army is the strongest army in the CIS.

2. We won’t have to break RF laws, which would allow (at least during the first period of time) to conserve the legal structure of the party in the Russian Federation.

3. Although a RF intervention and assistance is possible in this sort of conflict on the side of the attacked republic with known conditions (the Shanghai treaty on mutual assistance, a fast understanding of the conflict’s essence), however the contrary is also possible. With an efficiently organized propaganda, when it will be known in the RF that “the rebelled Russians are getting exterminated”, with the sympathy of the public opinion, an RF intervention on the side of the rebels is possible as well. It won’t necessarily happen this way, but possibly.

4. The Russian public opinion will significantly favor the people who started a war on foreign territory under the banner of the protection of the Russian population than the people who started a war on Russian territory.

5. We can also count on the media favor, or at least their objectivity. And with an efficiently set propaganda, to their sympathetic attitude as well.

A guerilla war naturally, by the precepts of the classicist Mao, starts with the creation of a guerilla base. Where, in what republic is it mostly convenient to locate a guerilla base? Based on the elimination method, the tiny Baltic republics, with a large population density and the absence of places where a base could be concealed are immediately unfit for this objective. The mountains are the best refuge for a guerilla base, but unfortunately, they are not to be found anywhere in the European part of the USSR territory, except for the Caucasus. The Caucasus is indeed, the ideal place for this goal. But the northern Caucasus today is flooded with Russian troops and Chechen illegal armed groups that resist them. These or the others will crush the rising guerilla movement. As for the Caucasus republics (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia) each of them is populated by a homogenous national compound and no Russian or multinational imperial movement would enjoy the population’s support, which is, as we know, one of the principal conditions of the survival and the success of guerilla warfare. Crimea, notwithstanding the large Russian population and the poor but mountains is not fit for this goal as well. And because Ukraine, inhabited by fifty million people is in the military aspect the strongest republic that broke away from the USSR, and the Ukrainian nationalism is dumb and angry. (We had the opportunity to see it for ourselves by the reaction of Ukraine on our peaceful action in Sevastopol.) There is another reason why Crimea doesn’t suit us: the Tatars, a third, ferocious element in this political situation, are also laying claim on Crimea and will hinder us and render the fight more difficult. We can also reject Kirghizia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and especially Uzbekistan as States with a very small or almost inexistent Russian population. These are nations with a homogenous indigenous population that don’t have common borders with Russia. So the guerrilla movement will not be able to receive assistance from Russia, to retreat on our land’s territory in case of necessity and to receive human reserves. There is only one State that fits neatly as a glove for the organization of a guerilla base of a Russian liberation movement. This is Kazakhstan. The population is 15 million 672 thousand people. Among them a little more than six million are Kazakhs. There are about six million Russians, 896 thousand Ukrainians, maybe half a million of Germans, over three hundred thousand Tatars, 185 thousand Uygurs and other “non-native ethnicities”. For the objectives of a liberation movement this is a very good distribution. (For comparison, in Uzbekistan, for 19 million 810 thousand people there is more than 14 million of Uzbeks and Muslims.) But Kazakhstan is the least Muslim country of all the nations of central Asia. Not only Muslims are a minority but also the quality of the Kazakh Islam leaves hope for better. “Being in the civilization aspect nomads and pagan Tengrians, the Kazakhs were confronted relatively late with the preaching of Islam and have kept up to this day the vestiges of shamanism,” writes an academic brochure. Although Nazarbaev parades his image of a Muslim leader, it’s only an image.

The armed forces of Kazakhstan are relatively weak. In the land troops up to 42 thousand people are serving, in the border troops, 15 thousand, the inland troops (the best of all) count 24 600 people, the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan, from one and a half to two thousand people. In all, they have around 84 thousand people under arms. We remind that in Cuba where landed Fidel there was 8 million people and Batista’s troops counted 40 thousand guns. So the comparison is proportionate.

The total length of the Kazakhstan borders is more than 13 thousand kilometers. Among them, more than six thousand form the border with the Russian Federation. It’s practically unguarded. (The most dangerous border for Kazakhstan is with China, less than two thousand kilometers, partly guarded.) Near the Kazakhstan border on our Russian territory are located large cities with populations of about a million people and even more than a million. These are Astrakhan, Volgograd, Saratov, Samara, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Omsk, and Barnaul. A little farther, but nonetheless close, on a distance of no more than five hundred kilometers from the border are located very large cities: Ufa and Novosibirsk. From these centers an inflow of volunteer recruits is possible in the future. Kazakhstan is a huge and an extremely low populated country of steppes, deserts, semi deserts and mountains. The economy is mostly concentrated along the border with Russia, on the north and the south of the country’s border. That’s clearly where the partisans should go. There we should start the Second Russia. The only negative factor of carrying out an uprising attempt in Kazakhstan is the fact that the territory is far from Russia’s center. It would be hard to set up an information access to the RF capital. However, by working in advance, we could set up information flows in some of the above mentioned dozen of cities and from there to the capital.

After the creation of the Second Russia (even if at first it’s a small moving island), to there, undoubtedly, would flow the first and the most ferocious elements from Russia. People would flee there like serfs to the Don, in search for freedom. The Russia of “registrations”, the Russia of cops and bureaucrats has definitively pissed everybody off. We need a Second Russia.