9 CYBERWAR TO DEFEND DEMOCRACY

“Always remember: cyber or kinetic, your adversaries prefer your silence, apathy and inaction. Be the consequence, not the victim.”

—Anthony Couchenour, Hoplite cyber security

THE 2016 ELECTION CYCLE IN THE United States will be noteworthy for more than just the bombastic rhetoric, the illogic, the lies, and the almost religious fervor of the electorate. The most important part of this election could easily be lost in the short-term memory of the American people, mainly because of the simplistic way our media makes us forget what is truly important.

Without any question, no matter what side of the aisle one sits on, the simple fact is that the United States was attacked by Russian cyber commandos deployed by Vladimir Putin and organized by his intelligence apparatus, the FSB and GRU. It was a serious act of political warfare.

The 2016 cyber attack was not just another case of simple Kompromat—meddling in the political affairs of a satellite nation or an individual dissenter. It was a direct attempt to hijack and derail the traditional processes and norms that held the United States together for more than 240 years. The attempt was even more brazen due to the apparent belief that Putin assumed that he and his oligarchy could charm, groom, and select a candidate, then with the right amount of cybercrime and enough organized propaganda they could actually choose a President of the United States to do their bidding.

The Cyberian Candidate

In terms of Russia’s cyber capability its worthy to note that LUCKY-7 managed to fuse together all aspects of the traditional KGB-style operations and then marry them up with the advanced cyber warfare capabilities of the more modern FSB. Their human intelligence officer, oligarchs, and the Russian news media apparently groomed powerful but friendly American associates over several years through financial, personal, and political patronage. If they sought to create a cadre of fellow-travelers in their hatred of Hillary Clinton and deep admiration of Russia’s political hardball, they got it in spades. Until 2016 it was unthinkable that Americans could be assembled in mutual endeavor to manipulate the goodwill of the American people in order to further their own personal financial interest at the behest of a hostile government. But it appears to have not only happened, but even managed to completely usurp the stridently anti-Communist Republican party and replace it with a presidential nominee that openly lavishes praise on Russia’s leader, disparages NATO, and promises to dismantle America’s superiority in order to allow Russia to take the role of world’s superpower. The fact that Russia can smile, deny, and at the same time conduct cyber and propaganda operations and still have Donald Trump beg them for cyber espionage assistance to hurt another American is unbelievable. If it reveals anything it proves the old KGB policy that money or promise of riches can create in the mind of a potential recruit that loyalty to one’s country is elastic if the money is right.

On September 8, 2016 Trump gushed with admiration and at the same time insulted America’s President.1 He was quickly seconded by Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence who agreed “I think it’s inarguable that Vladimir Putin has been a stronger leader in his country than Barack Obama has been in this country…”

By publically choosing a known, dangerous, and proven autocratic adversary who has murdered opponents, killed his own citizens, conducted acts of terrorism and has invaded and seized other nations in violation of global norms, Trump and Pence chose Russia’s values over America’s. It has been said that this election would spell the rise of fascism and end the two century long run of American democratic governance. It may be worse than that. The deliberate subornation of America’s interests over that of a hostile adversary has never before been suggested aloud in polite company in the history of this nation.

When asked at the Iraq and Afghanistan Veteran’s of America’s Commander-in-Chief’s forum about Putin Trump said “Well, he does have an 82 percent approval rating, according to the different pollsters, who, by the way, some of them are based right here.” Trump continued,

If he says great things about me, I’m going to say great things about him… I’ve already said, he is really very much of a leader. I mean, you can say, “Oh, isn’t that a terrible thing—the man has very strong control over a country.” Now, it’s a very different system, and I don’t happen to like the system. But certainly, in that system, he’s been a leader, far more than our president has been a leader.

Spoken at a forum of men and women who fought and served against the Soviet Union in the Cold war, Trump’s ability to make them forget their service to the nation and agree with him that Russia is a better nation than America because a dictator showed him some love, revealed that the subornation of the unwitting asset appeared complete.

The more excited partisans often misuse the word “treason” when discussing support for the ideals of another nation. The U.S. Code on treason reads,

Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.2

No one is accusing Trump or his associates of treason, sedition, or treachery. That kind of talk should be squelched. Unless true evidence of deliberate collusion between the campaign and the Russia government is found by US counter-intelligence officers an brought forth in charges by the U.S. Justice Department, and that is highly unlikely, then no one should ever accuse an American citizen of these dangerous and litigious words. Fighting words. We should defend his right under the First Amendment to continue saying any and all the stupid things he will most assuredly continue to do. That is his right.

Nor are any of the statements or activities of the Trump campaign, no matter how distasteful, the behaviors or actions of clandestine agents of the Russian regime. However, even a cursory glance at the evidence reveals to intelligence professionals that the probability that Vladimir Putin has handled Trump and his associates, doing their bidding without even knowing it, is well within the KGB playbook. These Americans may be not be real agents of the Russian Federation but they may have unwittingly exposed themselves to a massive intelligence manipulation machine that, once involved, may be completely out of their control to extract themselves. The rhetoric election of 2016 reveals that damage has already been done.

Worst of all is that the rise of an American ideologue that firmly admires and wishes to emulate the murder-based power politics of America’s strategic nuclear opponent with the intent to dismantle the defensive systems and treaties that kept this nation safe for over seventy years, reveals that the intelligence community’s ability to detect real national security threats can be defeated through demagoguery.

America Under Attack

Russia’s capability is so absolutely organized to benefit the regime that it generates billions through authorized cybercrime so long as the Kremlin gets what it wants. Another former NSA member of the elite Tailored Access Operations program warned, “Do not underestimate the food chain that Putin has assembled.” That food chain is topped by the CYBER BEARS; every nation below is intended to be consumed. Alex Cochenour, President of Hoplite Security, agreed with this aspect of Russia’s cyber capacity:

So complete is Russia’s control over its vast and profitable cybercrime and cyber propaganda campaigns that virtually no collateral damage ever lands within the Russians’ own border. This effect is amusingly referred to as the “Russian Cyber Force Field,” everything from making their malware exploit kits geo and language aware to manipulating malicious advertising campaigns, the Russians go to great lengths to keep their hands clean. The attached screenshot from Hoplite’s global sensor network show this effect visually, notice the lack of activity inside Russia’s borders? The activity inside Russia is virtually always from machines owned by Europeans and Americans traveling with already infected machines. If that graphic is at all useful, you have my permission to use it.

What are the nation’s options? A few recommendations have been universally recognized by some of the top cyber security people in the world including:

1. The President should address the nation before the election and use the bully pulpit to make the nation aware that an operation has been run against the United States by a hostile intelligence agency, and that the security of the system is paramount. He should allow the law enforcement and intelligence agencies of the United States to assist any and all state and local organizations to use the maximum resources of the nation to ensure the integrity of the election.

2. The Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Cyber Command should be directed to create a temporary joint public-private partnership, a Priority Infrastructure Cyber Security Cooperative (PICSC), in order to rapidly disseminate detected threats and solutions that will be available industry wide and without cost in order to stop emergent hacks. We require a central organization where anyone who has been hacked can report the incident for analysis. Many cyber security experts believe that we need an international Hackers Defense Network in order to allow academics, researchers, and intelligence agencies to work together to correctly identify, analyze, and score attacks with a single common standard.

3. The administration should make clear that the United States will respond to this attack at a time and place of its choosing. The target should be chosen by U.S. cyber command. If we do not communicate our intent to punish any further meddling, it will occur again. The argument that Russia will attack our infrastructure with a cyber disruption is no reason to allow them to damage our freedom to choose our government without retribution.

4. National recognition and awareness of the enormity and fully-integrated propaganda that emanates from the Russian state entities Russia Today, Sputnik News and other state disinformation agencies. These agencies should be called out for generating centralized propaganda and influencing our electorate through carefully-timed “conspiracy theory” releases that work to our detriment.

Where the candidates themselves stand is revealing as well. When discussing response to Russian cyberwarfare Hillary Clinton spoke about the attack and stated “As president, I will make it clear that the United States will treat cyberattacks just like any other attack… We will be ready with serious political, economic and military responses.”3

On the other hand, Donald Trump seems to admire Russia’s capacity to hurt our nation through cyberespionage. Apart from that, there is little evidence that Trump knows or cares about cyberwarfare. In a fluff interview conducted by General Michael Flynn, Trump was asked about cyber war. He gave a peculiarly ignorant answer:

Well that’s it, and, you know cyber is becoming so big today. It’s becoming something that a number of years ago, a short number of years ago, wasn’t even a word. And now the cyber is so big. And, you know, you look at what they’re doing with the internet, how they’re taking recruiting people through the internet. And part of it is the psychology because so many people think they’re winning. And, you know, there’s a whole big thing. Even today’s psychology, where CNN came out with a big poll, their big poll came out today that Trump is winning. It’s good psychology.4

However, despite the evidence the hacks benefitted him, Trump went on Larry King’s interview program that was aired on Russia Today television. When asked, he noted that the hacks were inappropriate, but pled ignorance and tried to pin the blame onto the Democrats, saying, “Maybe the Democrats are putting that out—who knows… I don’t know who hacked. You tell me: Who hacked?”5

Just because Russia now has money, resources, and military technology does not mean that they will ever see America as equals. I believe Donald Trump when he says that Russia has no respect for the United States or its leadership. Russia, like both Trump and Putin, suffers from an inferiority complex that makes them strive to best everyone and talk big beyond their ability to control the results. To them smack talk and chest puffing is enough to make them believe that they are the biggest ape in the jungle. However, when attacked and challenged America has always rallied to its flag and responded as a nation. It would be vitally important for Putin to disable this greatest American strength before endeavoring onto any further adventures. That unity and national will has been critically damaged by Trump as well, only to Russia’s benefit.

The key to unraveling the objectives of LUCKY-7 is to accept that Russia is not an ally but is strategic opponent who views America’s standing as an obstacle to its own greatness. Should the chicanery of the 2016 election go without response, America would become target number one for Kompromat at even the lowest level elections. Future hacking and political releases would directly affect U.S. policy and could disable the processes that keep us safe. Politicians from both sides of the aisle could find themselves at risk of political blackmail or they may entertain troll opinions generated by another nation. Russia believes that they have now perfected the tool by which America could be brought down by revealing to the world how easily we are manipulated through propaganda to the point that our own governmental functions cease to work. China will jump into the game with both feet should Lucky-7 be successful. Imagine two global cyber wars being waged secretly against America and our political establishment incapable of passing a law or allocating funds to stop it because the legislators have already been influenced by a foreign power.

The Next Attack

The Russian ability to launch an attack with a “weapon of Mass Disruption” has yet to occur, but could come at a time of Russia’s choosing. Should the Kremlin game out that the time is right to politically and economically destabilize America and finally topple it from being the shining city on the capitalist hill to collapsing under its own ignorance and faith in a parlor tricking, reality show con man, then a massive hack on election day is well within its capability. The Lucky-7 Information Warfare Management Cell doesn’t need to get into the electronic voting machines. The Russian IWMC and its Lucky-7 operations team just needs to change just one column of electoral tallies in one state just long enough to make the tens of millions of Trump voters finally believe that the election was being stolen by Hillary Clinton. No matter what the evidence, no matter who will ask for calm, they won’t believe anything other than treachery because Donald Trump has convinced a third of the American electorate that the entire American electoral system has always been corrupt. The greatest danger now is that any outcome other than the election of Donald Trump will not be accepted and demands for a new election and rejection of the result will cripple the nation in ways not seen since 1860 secession. It could lead some states to suggest just that should the outcome be not to their liking. At that point the prospect of a second American civil war is not only viable, but likely.

The Russian use of cyber weapons to perform criminal acts and damage our electoral process was intended to remove faith in America itself. Along with Donald Trump’s claims that the election will be rigged, they have achieved this goal. Due to their meddling, activities which were considered routine politics in America are now suspect. Politics itself is under fire, due to the combination of hacking and demagoguery.

Though we have yet to see an actual disruption that matters in the lives of the average American citizen, one can be sure that it will come at a time where, once recognized, the only alternative to the attack may be a real war.

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