The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

Appendix I

CALCULATION OF THE WEIGHTED MEAN PREDICTION FOR NORTH KOREA

The table below shows detailed data for some of the fifty-six stakeholders in the North Korean nuclear game, and it provides the summary values for influence times salience (that is, power) and also for influence times salience times position for all of the players. The column I × S × P is summed and divided by the sum of the column for I × S. That is, the weighted mean position equals 1,757,649 ÷ 29,384 = 59.8. This number is approximately equal to the position designated as “Slow reduction, U.S. grants diplomatic recognition.”

A SAMPLE OF DATA, WITH THE CALCULATION OF THE WEIGHTED MEAN POSITION