Threat Vector

FOURTEEN

The second meeting between President and General Secretary Wei Zhen Lin and Chairman Su Ke Qiang took place in Zhongnanhai, the government compound in central Beijing. Both Su’s and Wei’s offices were here, as well as Wei’s living quarters, so an evening private meeting was arranged between the two in the study off Wei’s private bedroom.

Wei’s secretary was present, as was Su’s second-in-command, much as they had been a week before at the Beidaihe resort on the coast. This evening would be different, however, because this time Chairman Su would be the one making the presentation.

A valet served tea for both men, offered nothing to the two secretaries, and then left them alone.

Wei had given Su a week to work with his intelligence staff to adopt a plan to project their power further into the South China Sea as the opening move of Wei’s gambit to absorb Hong Kong and Taiwan. He knew that Su would have slept little, eaten little, and thought about nothing else in the interim.

Su had been thinking about sending men, ships, and planes into the South China Sea for more than a decade, after all.

As they sat down for their meeting, Chairman Su held his report in his hand. A second copy was carried by Xia, Su’s second-in-command, and Wei thought he would be given one of the reports to look over while they discussed it.

But before he handed over the document, Chairman Su said, “Tongzhi, recently you were almost thrown from power because you spoke the truth to those around you, the truth was difficult to hear, and those around you would not listen to it.”

Wei agreed with a nod.

“I now find myself in a position similar to the one you found yourself in. You have laid out a five-year plan to bring the nation back to a strength and glory not enjoyed in generations. Reluctantly, however, I have to tell you about some aspects of our current military situation that will make your five-year plan difficult, if not impossible.”

Wei cocked his head in surprise. “The objectives I seek are not going to be won through military power alone. I only need military support in controlling the area. Are we not as strong as the annual reports have led us to believe?”

Su waved this away with his hand. “We are strong, militarily. The strongest we have ever been, overall. Twenty percent growth in expenditures over the past two decades have built our land, sea, air, and space capabilities greatly.”

After this, Su heaved a sigh.

“Then tell me what troubles you.”

“I fear our strength is at its greatest point right now, right this moment, but our strength will soon wane relative to our adversaries’.”

Wei did not understand. He was on shaky ground with matters of a military nature. “Why will it wane?”

Su paused long enough for Wei to understand that he would not answer the question immediately or directly. The explanation he would deliver would involve some background. “We can, beginning tomorrow morning, eliminate any opposition in our region. But that is not what we need. We must prepare to combat one adversary, and one adversary only. Once we neutralize this foe, the rest of our potential conflicts will be won before they are even fought.”

Wei said, “You think the United States will involve itself in our forays into the South China Sea?”

“I am certain of it, comrade.”

“And our military capability—”

“I will be frank with you. Our conventional capability is, overall, a shadow of that of the United States. In virtually every category, number of weapons, quality of equipment, training of forces, down to the last ship, aircraft, tank, truck, and sleeping bag, the Americans have superior equipment. They have also spent the last ten years fighting, while we have spent it training.”

Wei’s face hardened. “It sounds like our nation has been poorly served by our military during the two-decade-long modernization.”

Su was not angered by this comment. Instead he nodded. “That is the other side of the coin. This is the good news. Many aspects of our strategic modernization have been successful.

“We have a great advantage in one war-fighting discipline. In any conflict with any adversary, it is a given fact that we will possess complete and utter information dominance.

“Chairman Mao’s army, the army that your father and my father served in, has been replaced by something greater. Mechanized C4ISR. Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. We are well resourced, well connected, well organized. And our forces are in place for an immediate attack.”

“Attack? You are speaking of cyberwarfare?”

“Cyberwarfare and cyberespionage, communications between systems and forces to optimize their effect. The complete informationization of the battle space. We are the betters of the Americans by a wide margin.”

Wei said, “You told me you had bad news. This sounds like good news.”

“The bad news, General Secretary, is that the timetable you asked me to support with my military is unrealistic.”

“But we must do this within the close of the party conference, within five years. Any longer and our leadership roles will diminish, and we cannot be certain that—”

“You misunderstand me,” said the chairman. “I am saying there is no way we can take more than one year to achieve our objectives. You see, this new capability is our only real, true, tactical advantage over the Americans. And it is an incredible advantage. But it will wane. The Americans are building their cyberdefenses quickly, and their country and their forces are quick to adapt in the face of adversity. The U.S. network defense, at this moment, is based primarily on reactive controls. But America’s Cyber Command is quickly changing that, and they are changing the landscape for the future of warfare. President Ryan has increased all resources for Cyber Command, and it will soon have an effect on our capabilities.”

Wei understood. “You are saying the time to use this is now?”

“The window will close, and I fear it will not reopen. Ever again. America is catching up. Bills are moving along in their Congress that will modernize their domestic computer infrastructure. President Ryan’s administration is taking the matter seriously. If we slowly trickle out our… your program for expansion, we will disadvantage ourselves greatly.”

“You want to begin immediately.”

“We must begin immediately. We must reassert our belief that the South China Sea territory is a core interest of China, and we must push for control of the sea now. Within days, not weeks, we must strengthen our patrols down to the Strait of Malacca and begin moving naval and marine forces to the Spratlys and Huangyan Island. I can land forces on some of the uninhabited islands within the week. It is all in the report. Then we must announce our new relationship with Hong Kong, and begin the blockade with Taiwan, all in the next six months. In a year, with our aggressive and forward-thinking attitude apparent to all, we will have met all our goals and the Americans will be too busy licking their own wounds to stop us.”

Wei thought it over for a moment. “America is the only strategic threat?”

“Yes. Especially with Jack Ryan in the White House. Just as in our war with Russia, he is a problem once again. Not only from the direct threat of his military, but also in the bluster we are seeing from our neighbors. They tell themselves that China will do nothing against any ally of America as long as Ryan is in power.”

Wei said, “Because he defeated us so soundly during the last war.”

Su took issue with this. “It is debatable that he defeated us. The Russians were involved as well, you might remember.”

Wei put up a hand in apology. “True, although I also remember that we attacked Russia.”

Su said flatly, “We did not attack the United States. Even so, that was seven years ago, and still the American Navy routinely patrols the East China Sea, close to our waters. They have just sold another nine billion dollars’ worth of military hardware to Taiwan. They threaten us with their access to the region. I do not have to tell you that eighty percent of the oil we use to fuel our nation comes through the Strait of Malacca, and the United States could threaten that flow with a carrier battle group. We must go on the offensive against them in order for your plan to succeed.”

Wei did not know much about military matters, but this fact was well known to everyone in the Politburo.

“But if we initiate hostilities, Ryan will—”

Su said, “Comrade. We will initiate hostilities without Ryan knowing we are initiating hostilities. We can do this without revealing ourselves as the aggressors.”

Wei sipped tea. “Some sort of computer attack?”

“Mr. President, there is a secret operation of which you are not aware.”

Wei raised a narrow eyebrow behind his teacup. “I should hope there are many secret operations of which I am not aware.”

Su smiled. “Indeed. But this one, in particular, will be crucial to the realization of your goals. I only need to give one order and we will begin, slowly at first, and with great care that no positive attribution will be made to China, to damage the United States’ ability to defeat us. We will send them off against other enemies, have them concentrate on issues at home that will require their focus and resources, and we can push our endeavors here in our region to the back of their consciousness.”

Wei said, “That is a remarkable boast, Chairman Su.”

Su considered Wei’s comment before saying, “I don’t make it lightly. We will strike many small cuts against the body, barely scratches to a giant like America. But the scratches will bleed, I promise you that. And the giant will weaken.”

“And they will not know it is we who are weakening them?”

“We will be an invisible army. America will not know they have been taken out at the knees by the PLA.”

“It sounds too good to be true.”

Su nodded slowly. “There will be setbacks, failures of a tactical nature. No battle plan goes off without problems. But strategically we will succeed. I stake my reputation on this.”

Wei straightened in his chair. “As the leader of our military forces, comrade, you will have to.”

Su smiled. “I understand. But the infrastructure is in place, and we should exploit our advantage while we have it. The need is great. Our capability is great.”

Wei was taken aback that Su was, clearly, asking for the authority to implement the opening moves of the conflict at this moment. He wavered momentarily. “The same thing was said by our predecessors. Shortly before the war with Russia.”

The chairman nodded gravely. “I know. And I cannot counter your comment in any way, except to remind you that there is one great difference between then and now.”

“And what is that?”

“Seven years ago our predecessors underestimated Jack Ryan.”

Wei leaned back in the chair now, gazing at the ceiling for several seconds before chuckling without real mirth. “We certainly will not make that mistake.”

“No. We will not. And if you agree to sanction me to initiate our opening moves, there is one more thing I would like you to consider. I have been speaking about the need to act in the South China Sea to protect our core interests for years. I am known, above everything else I have ever said or done, as the man who wants to take back the territory for China. If we begin our movements without your speaking out, I fear some in the West will feel these actions have been set in motion by me without your consent.”

Su leaned forward, and in a friendly, imploring tone he said, “I do not want you to be marginalized. I think you should speak out strongly. Show the world you are in command.”

Wei said, “I agree. I will speak out about our core interests in the South China Sea.”

Su was pleased by this. He smiled. “So, let’s be clear. You are authorizing my initial military actions?”

“Very well. You do what you think is best. You have my blessing to initiate initial preparations. But I warn you now, Chairman, that if this plot of yours is uncovered, and this threatens our enterprise, then I will ask you to cease your operation immediately.”

Su fully expected such a lukewarm sanction. “Thank you. The actions we begin now will soften the enemy’s blows if hostilities ensue later. You can rest easy knowing that your decision tonight has helped our endeavor greatly.”

Wei Zhen Lin just nodded.

Su left the meeting knowing good and well that Wei Zhen Lin had no idea what he had just authorized.

Chairman Su was back in his office twenty minutes later. He’d asked Xia, his two-star adjutant, to personally put a call through for him, and when Xia leaned in through the doorway and said, “He’s on the phone,” the big chairman nodded curtly and waved his adjutant back out the door with his fingertips.

When the door shut, Su lifted the phone to his ear. “Good evening, Doctor.”

“Good evening, Comrade Chairman.”

“I have important news. This call serves to initiate your sanction authorizing Operation Earth Shadow.”

“Very well.”

“When will you begin?”

“Physical assets are in place, as you requested, so action will begin immediately. Once these are completed, in a week, two weeks at most, we will begin cyberkinetic operations. Things will proceed very quickly after that.”

“I understand. And how are the preparations for Operation Sun Fire?”

There was no pause. “Preparations will be complete as soon as we receive a shipment of hardware on the way from Shenzhen, and bring it online. In ten days we will be ready. I await your orders.”

“And I await mine.”

“Comrade Chairman?”

“Yes, Doctor?”

“I feel it my duty to remind you, once again, that key aspects of Earth Shadow, once initialized, are beyond my capability to rescind.”

Chairman Su Ke Qiang smiled into the phone. “Doctor… I am relying on our inability to reverse course once Earth Shadow begins. Civilian leadership has sanctioned us to tip the first domino in the row as if we can simply stop the momentum before the second and third dominoes fall. The will of our president is strong at the moment, here before the onset of adversity. If he wavers under pressure, I will stress to him that the only way is forward.”

“Yes, Comrade Chairman.”

“You have your orders, Doctor. Do not expect to hear from me again until I contact you with sanction to initiate Sun Fire.”

“I will continue to report through channels.”

“I wish you fortune,” Su said.

“Shi-shi.” Thank you.

The phone went dead in Chairman Su’s hand, and he looked at it with a chuckle before placing it back in its cradle.

Center was not one for small talk.