Threat Vector

FIFTY-FOUR

The call between President of the United States Jack Ryan and President of the People’s Republic of China Wei Zhen Lin had been Ryan’s initiative originally; he wanted to attempt a dialogue with Wei, because, regardless of what Wei had been saying publicly, Ryan and most of his top advisers felt that Su was pushing the conflict in the strait and the SCS way past what Wei was comfortable with.

Ryan felt he could reach out to Wei and stress the perilous path his country was traveling down. It might not make a difference, but Ryan felt like he should at least try.

Wei’s staff had contacted Ambassador Ken Li the day before, and arranged a time the following evening, China time, for the two presidents to talk.

Jack found himself in the Oval Office before the call, meeting with Mary Pat Foley and CIA Director Jay Canfield, trying to decide if he should bring up the Georgetown killings with the Chinese president.

Zha had been killed, both Foley and Canfield were certain, to silence him before he revealed China’s involvement in the cyberattacks going on in the West, especially in America.

Little was known about Dr. K. K. Tong and his scheme, but the deeper the NSA dug into the operation, the more certain they were that this was Chinese-run, and not some Triad/cybercrime nexus run out of Hong Kong. Zha’s involvement with the UAV hacking seemed clear, the Iranian misdirection in the code had been discounted by the geeks at NSA, and more and more attacks against critical U.S. government networks bore the hallmark of Zha’s code.

Their evidence was circumstantial but persuasive. Ryan believed China was behind the network attacks and the UAV attacks, and he also felt the Georgetown killing was a government operation, meaning China.

On top of this, Canfield and Foley wanted blood for the death of the five intelligence officers, and this Jack understood very well, but now he found himself playing the role of devil’s advocate. He told them he needed more concrete proof that the PLA and/or the MSS were directing the Center network before he could publicly accuse the Chinese of anything.

He decided he would not bring up the Georgetown killings in this morning’s phone call. Instead he would keep the focus on actions China could not deny, which meant everything that had happened in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Both Ryan and Wei would be using their own translators. Jack’s Mandarin speaker was located in the Situation Room, and his voice was piped into one of Jack’s ears via an earpiece while Jack could listen to Wei’s own voice through the telephone. This would make for a slow conversation without much spark, Ryan thought, but that did not bother him at all.

He would be doing his best to choose his words carefully; a little extra time to think through what he would say next might just keep him from challenging President Wei to a fistfight.

The conversation started out as all high-level diplomatic conversations do. It was polite and stilted, made even more so by the others in the chain of communication. But soon enough Ryan treaded into the main topic of conversation.

“Mr. President, it is of great concern that I must discuss with you your nation’s military actions in the South China Sea and the Strait of Taiwan. The past month of aggression by the PLA has left hundreds dead, thousands displaced, and it has hurt the flow of traffic through the region, degrading the economies of both of our countries.”

“President Ryan, I too am concerned. Concerned about your actions off the coast of Taiwan, sovereign territory of China.”

“I ordered the Ronald Reagan pulled back to three hundred miles, as you requested. I had hoped it would deescalate the situation, but so far I see no evidence your aggression has been halted.”

Wei said, “You also, Mr. President, have brought your Nimitz close to the three-hundred-mile limit. This is thousands of miles from your territory — what reason would you do this if not to cause provocation?”

“American interests are in the area, and it is my job to protect those interests, President Wei.” Before Wei’s translator finished the sentence, Ryan added, “Your nation’s military maneuvers, as bellicose as they have been in the past few weeks, can still be repaired with diplomacy.” Ryan continued speaking while the translator spoke to Wei softly. “I want to encourage you to make certain nothing happens, that you allow nothing to happen, that diplomacy cannot fix.”

Wei’s voice rose. “Are you threatening China?”

Ryan, in contrast, was calm and measured in his tone. “I am not talking to China. That is your job, Mr. President. I am talking to you. And this is no threat.

“Much of statecraft, as you know, involves trying to determine what your adversaries will do. I will relieve you of that burden in this phone call. If your nation attacks our carrier groups in the East China Sea, jeopardizing some twenty thousand American lives, we will attack you with everything we have.

“If you fire ballistic missiles at Taiwan, we will have no choice but to declare war on China. You say you are open for business? I assure you that war with us will be bad for business.”

Ryan continued: “I value the lives of my fellow countrymen, Mr. President. I cannot make you understand this, and I cannot make you respect this. But I can, and I must, make you acknowledge that this is the case. If this conflict turns into open war, then it will not make us run away, it will force us to respond with fury. I hope you realize Chairman Su is quickly taking China down the wrong path.”

“Su and I are in total accord.”

“No, President Wei, you are not. My intelligence services are very good, and they assure me that you want economic improvement and he wants war. Those two things are mutually exclusive, and I believe you are beginning to realize that.

“My assets tell me it is likely that Chairman Su is promising you we will not escalate past what he is doing and if he strikes out against us we will disengage and quit the region. If that is indeed what Su has told you, you have been given very bad information, and I worry you will act on that bad information.”

“Your disrespect for China should not surprise me, Mr. President, but I admit that it does.”

“I mean China no disrespect. You are the largest nation, with one of the largest territories, and you possess a brilliant and hardworking workforce with whom my country has done good business for the past forty years. But that is all in danger.”

The conversation did not end there. Wei went on for a few minutes about how he would not be lectured, and Ryan expressed the wish that they keep this line of communication open, as it would become very important in case of emergency.

When it was over, Mary Pat Foley, who had been listening in, congratulated the President and then said, “You told him your intelligence services were giving you information on high-level military decisions. Do you have some other intelligence service that I am not aware of?” She said it with a sly smile.

Jack answered, “I’ve been doing this for a while, and I thought I detected some indecision in his words. I played a hunch about the discord between the two camps, and I tried to turn his worry into paranoia with the comment about our intelligence services.”

Mary Pat said, “Sounds like armchair psychology, but I’m all for it if it makes life harder for the Chicoms. I have some funerals to go to this week for some great Americans, and I feel certain Wei, Su, and their minions are responsible for these men’s deaths.”