Dragon Strike: The Millennium War

EIGHT

Bradlay paced the Oval Office. He stopped and turned to the assembled advisers and told them that he would announce his decision to the nation during his address, scheduled for 1730. Overhalt was instructed to tell the Chinese Foreign Minister to await his statement. He then thanked his advisers for their support and help during the crisis. `The nation is in your debt,' he said. An unusual calm descended on the office. The President displayed an otherworldly, almost mystical detachment. It was then that he made up his mind and asked them to leave so that he could collect his thoughts. Weinstein was the last, and the President pulled him to one side and told him that five minutes before airtime he wanted the latest intelligence on the Chinese submarines. The technicians arrived to set up their cameras in the Oval Office.

`My fellow Americans. I wish that I could appear before you in happier circumstances. But events far from our borders have conspired otherwise. As all of you know the Government of China launched an unprovoked attack on Vietnam last Saturday, at the same time seizing the South China Sea. This illegal action was followed three days later with the sinking of the USS Peleliu, a United States naval vessel engaged on a humanitarian mission to save oil workers manning oil rigs in the South China Sea. Since then we have come to the brink of nuclear war. Indeed, over the past days, Chinese submarines have been preparing to attack America. One reached the Californian coast. I do not wish to sound melodramatic but I am told these submarines are at a high state of readiness. Should the Chinese President so order, our nation's capital could be reduced to rubble within minutes. I have told President Wang that if he does so order we in retaliation would have no option but to destroy every Chinese city of consequence.

`So what does the moment require of us? I have to tell you, friends, that my advisers are divided.

`Some say we should fight at all costs. To give in now to the Chinese state would be a mistake. It would send a signal to every tinpot dictator that all they have to do is kill some Americans and the United States will fold. This is a powerful argument. It goes to the heart of what sort of world we, and our allies, have been trying to shape since our historic victory over Fascism in 1945 and Communism in 1989. The lessons of those two great wars was that it is the bullies who fold if you have the courage to stand firm. Democracy, freedom, free markets have triumphed. Evil empires have crumbled.

`Yet there is an alternative view. This holds that the conflict in which we became embroiled is only of regional significance. Our interests in China are greater than the concerns of a frightened and paranoid leadership hanging on to power well after its "sell by" date. Our great corporations have put down roots in China and are agents of significant political change. Our regional role is best suited when we adopt the posture of honest broker, rather than global policeman enforcing our will wherever we might find it questioned. As the events of the last few days graphically demonstrate, we have a lot to do.

`But my job is not to arbitrate between two contending schools of thought. It is, with the guidance of God, to govern wisely. That's what you elected me to do last November. That's what I pledged to the nation in my inaugural address last month. Then I warned of the uncertainties facing our nation and of the need for clarity of vision and single-mindedness of purpose. To govern is to choose. The choice I have made is for peace. I am tonight issuing orders for the immediate recall of all US forces west of Japan. We are not, however, walking away from the battlefield. That is not the American way. We have not come to the brink of nuclear war simply to capitulate.

`I have told President Wang that withdrawal of US forces is conditional upon the cessation of all hostilities by China, and by that I mean all hostilities. During these past days China has not only launched attacks on Vietnam but has also occupied islands in the Taiwan Straits formerly held by the Taiwanese government. I call upon China to restore those islands to their lawful and legitimate government. And I have also told President Wang to submit China's claim to sovereignty over that area to international arbitration. Provided certain guarantees are made concerning free access of international shipping to the South China Sea I can see little reason for the United States to raise any objections. We are confident that these guarantees will be forthcoming. The Chinese government has agreed to allow Japanese naval vessels to escort merchant shipping.

`If China agrees to our terms, the very real threat of nuclear war will have been averted. For that we should give thanks to God. For this is not a time for false triumphalism. As Nikita Khrushchev observed at the end of an earlier international crisis: they talk about who won and who lost. Human reason won. Mankind won.'

Wang Feng called the meeting at short notice. Present were Jamie Song, General Zhao — the wheeler-dealing soldier who commanded the People's Liberation Army's vast financial and industrial assets known simply as Multitechnologies — and Zhang Zhi, Politburo member responsible for security. Wang was agitated. He kept on referring to `some people' who were questioning the course upon which he had set the country but a week before. He was not a man to show emotion and this uncharacteristic outburst underlined to those present the pressure he was under and the extent to which others in the leadership the `some people' he obliquely referred to re ready to pick up the baton should he drop it. He had finished his telephone conversation with Bradlay only hours before. It was a conversation mediated by interpreters at either end that prevented a nuclear exchange and effectively brought Dragonstrike to a conclusion. Yet far from feeling elated, he was moody and dejected.

`So what have we achieved?' he asked rhetorically.

`A financial success beyond our expectations,' General Zhao said. `We ought to be able to rebuild our navy with the proceeds of oil and currency market trading.'

`Really!' he retorted.

`Yes, Comrade,' General Zhao said. `May I be permitted to explain?' He met no resistance and proceeded. `I would ask that what I am about to say does not leave this room. This operation has been known to only three people. Briefly, Multitechnologies exploited its foreknowledge of Dragonstrike to make money for the PLA. We always knew our attack against Vietnam and the sequestration of the South China Sea would come at a price — the loss of important capital assets — and the President thought it prudent to provide for that contingency by some judicious investments. Excluding fees, Multitechnologies has done very well out of oil. Profits taken so far amounted to some $1.6 billion; this has been parked, temporarily, in the US Treasury bond market in short-dated T-bills. The biggest single trade we conducted was on Wednesday in Singapore, for $600 million. It was a special trade booked through the SIMEX exchange: our agent unloaded 30,000 oil futures contracts at $45 a barrel. We sold 80,000 of the original 160,000 IPE April contracts in the London futures market on Tuesday at a profit of more than $600 million, and still hold 50,000. Since the entry price into the market was $25 a barrel these 50,000 contracts mean we have $1 billion of paper profits to cash in. We plan to do so at the earliest opportunity. We also did quite well out of the yen. Deals in London and Tokyo netted $466 million. In short, Multitechnologies has made $2 billion in cash and has another $1 billion of profits still locked up in the London oil futures market. The bottom line, sir, is that Multitechnologies has doubled its money. We could buy a fully fitted-out aircraft carrier for that and still have change for a couple of submarines.'

There was a gasp from Song and Zhang. Wang brightened. Although he had been kept informed throughout the week of Zhao's progress he had no idea he had been so successful. Song, a former businessman, gave Zhao a slight bow in recognition of his skilful trading. Zhang, who was bowled over by what he had heard, soon recovered his composure and indicated that he too had some good news.

`Comrade,' Zhang began, `we have extinguished the antirevolutionary so-called New Communists. These people have been like thorns in our side. Yet in our coordinated police action we were able to arrest more than 500. We have released some, but they remain under close observation, and 203 were officially charged and they will be given gaol terms ranging from seven to twenty years. Our interrogation so far has led us to estimate that eight of the ringleaders have managed to elude us. We think they have made for the Vietnamese border, but I'm confident they will be apprehended. Think of our victory, Comrade, a dissident group which had taken years to create was crushed in less than an hour. This is an impressive achievement which no one can take away from you.'

`Yes, that is particularly sweet. So what of you, Comrade?' he said, turning to Song.

`I'm afraid I have nothing but good news for you,' he said, chancing an ironic smile in response to the President's improving spirits. `We have been transformed from a regional power into a global force capable of challenging America. The world has not witnessed such rapid change in power alignments since the Soviet Union collapsed under Gorbachev's reign leaving only the Americans to dominate the world stage. China has arrived. Our preparedness to risk nuclear exchange has bought us a seat at the top table. We have changed the world.

`We have won an important victory in that we have the active acquiescence of most South-East Asian nations to our claim over the South China Sea. The West's agreement will follow after a suitable face-saving interval. The way is open for us to move on Taiwan. Japan is a problem, but not an insurmountable one. After all, like America, Japan has commercial interests to protect in China. We should sleep more soundly, not less so.'

Wang sat back, rolling a pencil between his fingers, nodding as Song talked. Then he said, `But what about the Vietnamese. How did they do it?' as his fist came crashing down on the table.

In Tiananmen Square, dusted with freshly fallen snow, a soldier raised the national flag. Soon afterwards children arrived in bright red uniforms each carrying a flag bearing a portrait of President Wang. A line of kites flew at each end of the square with the symbol of the Dragonstrike War printed onto the cloth. Outside the Museum of History and Development film of the battles and the destruction was projected onto a large screen. Soldiers, aircrew, and sailors who had fought lined up squadron by squadron, battalion by battalion and ship by ship to file through the Mausoleum of Mao Zedong and pay their respects to the founder of modern China. They then took their positions, beginning at the south end of the Square, filling it up line by line. The JL2 and DF32 intercontinental ballistic missiles were driven down the Avenue of Heavenly Peace and drew to a halt as the procession had done less than a month earlier, facing the Gate of Heavenly Peace. The whole Square was filled with a mist of sleet and pollution. It was impossible to make out figures and buildings from one side to the other, but the hazy, dim atmosphere made the music and speeches of the Communist leaders even more distinctive. Cheers erupted from swirls of fog. The nation was told that lost territory in northern Vietnam would be recovered by the glorious bravery of troops from the Kunming and Guangzhou war zones; that men from the East Sea Fleet, the PLA Air Force, Marines, and troops from the Nanjing war zone would valiantly drive out the occupying nationalist forces of Taiwan and reunite it with the motherland; that the governments of Japan, Britain, France, and America had apologized to President Wang for atrocities carried out during colonial times, when China was a weak and corrupt nation; the sovereign rights over the South Sea by the motherland had been acknowledged by all nations. President Wang Feng was a great and glorious leader for the whole of China.

`Never again will China be disgraced and humiliated by foreign powers,' the People's Daily said, in a front-page editorial. `The motherland is now the strongest nation on Earth.'

The Chinese President appeared above the gate of the Forbidden City. He was flanked by the generals who had directed the Dragonstrike War. General Zhao and Jamie Song were there with other members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo; among the international guests were the President of Iran, the Prime Minister of Russia, and the leaders of the Central Asian Republics of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. The Japanese Ambassador found it convenient to be in Tokyo for consultations. In protests reminiscent of the Cold War, Western diplomats boycotted the ceremonies.

The attack came at first light. Twelve Su-27s came in low over the north-east coast of Taiwan; behind them six A-7 light attack bombers. They met no resistance as they made their first pass over Tan-shui, a coastal town at the mouth of the Tan-shui River. The A-7s carried C-802 anti-ship missiles. As they began their first run, sailors aboard ran for cover on board the Taiwanese Cheng Kung class frigate Pan Chao and the La Fayette class frigate Wu Chang. But it was too late. Within seconds the missiles had struck the ships, sending superheated shrapnel and exploding ordnance in all directions. Debris burnt all around the waters of the Tan-shui. Thick black smoke billowed into the air; the howls of the injured and dying were finally drowned out by an air raid warning siren. It sounded as the A-7s turned to make their second approach. Their target was a second La Fayette class frigate, Kun Ming. But the crew had had the vital seconds to react and defend themselves. Through an octuple launcher, they fired a salvo of surface-to-air missiles, destroying three aircraft. At the same time, the Chinese pilots found themselves flying into a blanket of depleted-uranium shells from the American-made close-in Phalanx weapons system on the bow. Firing up to 4,000 shells a minute, it hit two A-7s and blew up their air-to-surface missiles before they were able to hit the frigate.

There was a knock on the door and Prime Minister Hyashi's Private Secretary entered the room. Hyashi was eating breakfast — fermented soya beans (natoh) mixed with strips of raw squid, and rice — and reviewing the morning's press. He looked up. `Yes?' he said.

`Excuse me, sir, for interrupting you but Defence Minister Ishihara said you would want to see this.'

Hyashi read the two-page document impassively. It described how a Japanese listening post on the Senkaku Islands had intercepted Chinese military communications at 0700 that morning. The Senkaku Islands which Beijing claimed and called Taioyu-tai Islands d been upgraded by Japan to a fully staffed and equipped military base in the fortnight following Dragonstrike. The provisioning of the islands had not been completed.

The signals that were intercepted were the orders to PLA Air Force and naval units participating in the invasion of northern Taiwan. Hyashi finished reading and sat in silent thought. He turned to his Private Secretary and told him to convene a meeting of the cabinet's Defence Subcommittee for 0900. `Also call Ambassador Monroe and tell him that I want to talk to the President after the cabinet meeting. That is all.'

The Xinhua News Agency carried a report of the invasion, which it dubbed the `liberation' of Taiwan. It said the Chinese people had an historic yearning for reunification and called on the Taiwanese military to come over to the Communists' side. It said that those who joined forces with the PLA would retain the rank they held in the Taiwan Army. `The government of China does not seek retribution, only reunification,' it said. `All outstanding issues can be settled. Taiwan's people can continue to govern Taiwan. Taiwan's status as a member of international organizations will be preserved. The Central People's government seeks only peace and one China,' Xinhua said.

Xinhua also carried a statement from President Wang Feng. It was a veiled warning to the United States to keep out of China's internal affairs. `If someone makes a show of force in the Taiwan Straits, that will not be helpful but will make the situation all the more complicated,' he said. Xinhua then warned him how China would respond if US warships entered the 200 kilometre wide passage between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. `If someone threatens the use of force against China this has been shown by past experience — will not spell any good results.'

The meeting room in which Hyashi liked to hold some of his Cabinet committee meetings filled with the now familiar faces. Ishihara from the Defence Ministry sat on the Prime Minister's right; on his left, Kimura from the Foreign Ministry. Wada and Naito (Finance and Trade respectively) were next, followed by General Ogawa, Director, Defence Intelligence Headquarters.

`Well, General Ogawa, what is your assessment?' the Prime Minister began.

`From what we can tell so far,' the General began, `based on telecommunications intercepts and information from an AWACS we sent up soon after the first interception at 0700, the Chinese have launched a two-pronged assault on the north of Taiwan. They have landed at Tan-shui on the north-west tip of the island and at Hsin-chu further south down the coast. Our assessment is that they have overstretched themselves. Taiwan is well defended and the military possesses the latest, or near to latest, American and European equipment.

`Taiwan has 425,000 active servicemen split between the army (289,000), navy (68,000), and air force (68,000). The cornerstone of its defence, however, is its relationship with America. The US-Taiwan military relationship has remained strong, in spite of attempts by Beijing to drive a wedge between the two. Washington has sold or leased modern weaponry, including frigates, F-16 jet fighters, attack helicopters, early warning aircraft, tank-landing ships, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine-warfare equipment, and ballistic-missile-defence equipment. According to one source, "most of the armaments are suited for repulsing a sea assault or thwarting a naval blockade". If China is successful in making a beachhead it will face fierce local resistance. Taiwan has more than 300 tanks, of which at least half are located in the north-east. At sea, with 22 destroyers, 11 frigates, and 4 submarines it will be able to put up a stout defence to the Chinese.'

The Prime Minister quietly sucked air through his teeth. Ogawa knew it was time to stop. Hyashi thanked him for his report. Ogawa rose and left the room. Hyashi then turned to Foreign Minister Kimura.

`Kimura-san, why have they done this?' he asked. `Our navy has completed its first escort of our merchant ships through the South China Sea. Now the Taiwan Straits are effectively closed. That's not a serious problem, I grant you, but what does this action by the Chinese mean for our islands of Senkaku?'

`There are two questions there, Prime Minister. To the first the honest answer is, we do not know. However, we think this attack is based upon a misreading of the politico-military situation in Taiwan. The proximate cause would appear to be some statements made by the leaders of Taiwan's New Party. The New Party was founded in 1994 and is a breakaway faction of the Kuomingtang, or KMT. The New Party has always favoured reunification and has despaired as the KMT has run a line, both domestically and internationally, that seeks an independent identity for Taiwan. The New Party's spokesmen were particularly bellicose on China's behalf during the Dragonstrike conflict. Some even suggested that Taiwan should unify with the mainland to present a united Chinese face to the world. Significantly, at a meeting in Taipei at the height of the conflict the twenty-second of February number of important generals, including General Yen Chi-tsai, who controls the army around Hsin-chu, were present at a meeting with senior New Party officials. A colonel on General Yen's staff, a Hung Tzu-lin, went to Beijing the next day — the twenty-third of February. We do not know what he did in Beijing but our information is that he visited Zhongnanhai and the Taiwan Affairs Office. Our best guess is that Beijing, which as you can see is well informed about affairs on Taiwan, has acted on the belief that General Yen was an ally and that the Taiwanese military is deeply divided. We further believe that the troops landed at Hsinchu are no more than a token, symbolic force and are not intended to spearhead a major invasion. As further evidence for this I offer the Xinhua News Agency's initial dispatch. It is notable for its lack of hard-line rhetoric towards the rulers in Taiwan. `

As for our position on the Senkaku Islands, no one internationally, takes China's claim at all seriously. The Chinese call the islands Taioyu-tai and include them on their official maps. There have been skirmishes in the past. A Chinese campaign to regain the islands cannot be ruled out, especially in the face of this latest crisis, based, as it is, on national reunification. We need to be vigilant. Our navy should escort merchant shipping not just out through the South China Sea but also through the waters of the East China Sea where the Senkaku Islands lie.'

Hyashi was still. `I have been preoccupied over the past week or so with our relations with the United States. We spoke about this, Kimura-san, only two days ago. Every time I see Monroe, the US Ambassador, he is on at me to visit Washington. Perhaps this latest disturbance might prove useful. At times such as these a country like Japan needs friends. I will be placing a call to President Bradlay after this meeting.'

President Bradlay had just returned to Washington from a visit to Chicago. There he had reacquainted himself with the city whose terrible riots the previous summer Bradlay had stemmed and, in the process, brought himself a much needed boost in the opinion polls. He toured the Southside ghettos and spoke to civic leaders and community representatives. His Communications Director billed the speech as the most important presidential statement about urban reform since George Bush went to Los Angeles in the wake of the Rodney King riots in 1992 and promised federal aid for the inner cities. Bradlay was with advisers when Martin Weinstein, his National Security Adviser, entered with news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan.

`This time I think they have met their match,' he said as he briefed Bradlay on the situation. He also told the President to expect a call from Prime Minister Hyashi. `He's ready to come back into the fold,' Weinstein said.

`How should we play this, Marty? I mean, what is Wang up to here? Three weeks ago he tells me on the telephone that he will return the islands to Taiwan that they took, and now he is engaged on a hare-brained adventure against the Taiwanese. Doesn't he know Taiwan has one of the most sophisticated arsenals in Asia? What does he expect us to do? I gave my word to the American people that we were leaving the battlefield with honour. He's made a fool out of me!'

`Mr President, your analysis is, as usual, as perceptive as ever,' said Weinstein. `But consider this. We think, and our Japanese friends agree, that Wang launched this attack in the belief that the Taiwanese military would not fight. He has been proved wrong. It is by no means certain that mainland China will prevail. The Taiwanese are well armed, and they hate the Communists. Yes, Wang has gone back on his word to you, but my recommendation is that we stand back don't want to get involved directly to support the Taiwanese with all the military hardware and advice they need.'

Just as Weinstein finished his report the President's secretary entered the room to inform him that the Japanese Prime Minister was on the telephone.

`Nobby, how are you?' Bradlay opened with his customary familiarity. `I'm always happy to take a call from our friends in Japan, no matter what the hour.'

`You are too kind, Mr President,' Hyashi countered. `I'm calling, as you know, about the situation in Taiwan…'

`Yes, yes… I know about that. What's your reading? Can the Chinese pull it off?'

`Unlikely. Our best estimate, Jim, is that the Chinese won't be able to last much more than twenty-four hours. We think that based on faulty intelligence they have overplayed their hand.'

`That's our assessment too, Nobby. However, I think we can take advantage of Beijing's discomfort. I know that Monroe in Tokyo has been on at you to visit Washington. We'd very much like to have you here.'

`I've been giving some thought to our relations as well. There can, of course, be no question of Japan ever again assuming a subordinate position; however, I believe that stability in East Asia can be secured only if the United States and Japan work together. You are absolutely right when you said relations have been allowed to drift. I will be more than happy to come to Washington. It will send a strong signal in this part of the world, and one I know that will be welcomed more widely in South-East Asia… though not Beijing, of course.'

Bradlay laughed. `Indeed, Nobby, indeed. Why don't we initiate this new friendship between us with a joint statement condemning the Chinese invasion of Taiwan and tie to it your forthcoming visit to Washington?'

`An excellent idea, Jim.'

The air raid sirens wailed through the deserted streets of Taipei, the capital of Taiwan. Overhead, the skies appeared crowded with fighter aircraft engaged in a deadly game of aerial acrobatics. The mainland Chinese flew Su-27s fitted with their infra-red and radar-homing air-to-air missiles; the Taiwanese flew F-16s armed with not only the AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile but also, having fitted a new radar, the AIM-7 Sparrow radar-guided missile. The Taiwanese pilots put in more training hours than their mainland counterpart, but, thanks to Dragonstrike, the mainland pilots were battle-hardened. The early successes went to the Su-27s. In an attempt to escape one, the pilot of an F-16 climbed vertically and, while discharging the contents of two chaff pods in the hope of confusing the approaching radar-guided missile, banked sharply right. Unfortunately he had lost energy and deployed the chaff too early. The missile relocked and plunged into the F-16. Pieces of wreckage littered the mountain which provided the protective fortress for the National Palace Museum, on the north-east outskirts of Taipei.

But the F-16s had their day. In a dogfight that was shown on television around the world, the pilot of an F-16 shot down an Su-27. It was a classic one-to-one encounter and the Su-27, with its larger clutch of missiles, should have won. But the Taiwanese pilot knew his aircraft. The dogfight started over the presidential palace in the south-east part of Taipei. Both aircraft's radar missiles had already been fired and the infra-red homers were left. The F-16's problem was how to evade the Su-27 and its deadly arsenal. In a whirling vortex each turned at maximum G and tried to get a firing solution on the other. The human factor proved critical. The Taiwanese pilot was equipped not only with an anti-G suit, but also with partial pressure-breathing which cut in under high G. This reversed his normal breathing process, making him use conscious effort to expel oxygen from his lungs, inhaling simply by opening his mouth, the pressure filling his lungs automatically. He had practised this regularly, because it enabled him to sustain the forces of the high-G manoeuvre better than his enemy, and he steadily caught him up in the turn. He launched an infra-red missile when within the launch envelope, lock-on being signified by the characteristic growl in his headphones. This missile was decoyed by flares from the Su-27, but then the pilot made the error of reducing his turn in an effort to escape. This enabled the F-16 to fire a salvo of two further missiles just at the time it was in a perfect firing position the centre of their engagement envelopes. The first hit home on one engine, exploding the other engine as well when the warhead detonated. The other was slightly behind and detonated in the fireball.

The Taiwanese military might have been caught unawares at the beginning of the mainland Chinese offensive, but by noon of the first day it was clear that the tables had turned decisively in Taipei's favour. 50 kilometres to the south-west, the Chinese expeditionary force of 5,000 men that landed on the coast near Hsin-chu, the country's leading site for the manufacture of semiconductors and computers, had expected to be welcomed as a liberating force by the local garrison, whose commanding general was thought to be a supporter of Beijing. But soon they found out how wrong Chinese intelligence was. They met fierce resistance from the Taiwanese garrison. The fighting was hand-to-hand and the Taiwanese had the better of it, pinning the mainlanders down on the outskirts of the town. The Chinese had badly miscalculated. Unable to land any tanks or any other vehicles of their own, their men had to defend themselves with what they had to hand. By late morning the 5,000 Chinese troops had been reduced by more than half. It was slaughter by another name. Most got lost in unfamiliar terrain. The remaining 2,000 or so troops were disorganized and holed up wherever they could find shelter including schools, a hospital, and a Buddhist temple. There were reports that some small groups of soldiers had surrendered, but these were vociferously denied by Xinhua in a noon dispatch. Reports of surrender were `vile lies' propagated the United States and its `running dog' supporters on Taiwan. But for all Xinhua's bluster even it could not conceal the fact that the campaign had not gone according to plan. In what was seen as a prelude to full-scale retreat, it said China had `taught the Taiwanese separatists a lesson'. It warned of `sterner measures', if the leaders of the island state did not respond positively to the Chinese people's yearning for reunification.

It was a bright, sunny Washington spring morning. The cherry trees along the Potomac River were in full blossom. Prime Minister Noburo Hyashi of Japan had participated in an impromptu hanami flower-viewing picnic with Ambassador Katayama before their meeting with President Bradlay. It looked well on television and Hyashi, who had gained some of his media savvy in the weeks leading to his Washington summit with Bradlay, used it to underline the warmth of ties between Japan and America. When a reporter called out: `What about the bomb?' Hyashi, without batting an eyelid, turned and said: `Extreme situations demand extreme measures; my country sought to demonstrate the capability rather than the intention to deploy nuclear weapons. We remain opposed to the deployment of nuclear weapons.'

The lecterns were arranged side by side on a small but adequate podium. President Bradlay was in an expansive mood, joking with reporters as he and Prime Minister Hyashi of Japan made their way to the rostrum.

`The defence of the free world is a responsibility the United States has shouldered since the end of the Second World War. And it is a responsibility that this nation, in concert with its allies, has never taken lightly. Recent events in East Asia have focused our minds on the tasks before us of preserving freedom in that great and commercially vibrant part of our world. Prime Minister Hyashi of Japan has been our guest for the past three days. We have met on numerous occasions and have arrived at a common view on the way ahead. I am very pleased to announce that this morning Mr Hyashi and I signed a new agreement for the mutual protection of our territories. This treaty, which I hope will be speedily ratified by the Senate, reflects the concerns of both governments over the increasingly belligerent posture adopted by China. The treaty is an unequivocal warning to anyone in East Asia that the United States and Japan will act swiftly and resolutely to defend our mutual interests when those interests are threatened. We are not alone in these concerns. I've had telephone calls recently from the leaders of many South-East Asian countries expressing their concern about China's aggression. Our fight is not with the Chinese people but with the men who seek to repress them. I am telling you today that we will not stint in our determination to prevail. Thank you.'

The Japanese destroyer Kirishima was on routine patrol, escorting a supertanker and assorted container ships bound for Yokohama past the Senkaku Islands. The calm of the early morning was shattered by a klaxon sounding battle stations. In the operations room the sailor operating the ship's sonar had detected the unmistakable acoustic signature of a Chinese Kilo class submarine. The Captain gave orders for the ship to come about and prepare its antisubmarine torpedoes for launch. The Kilo had opened its bow doors and appeared to be preparing to launch its torpedoes.