Dragon Strike: The Millennium War

PREFACE TO THE PAPERBACK EDITION

There is always a risk in writing a book about the future that one will be proved wrong. However, since the publication of Dragonstrike in April 1997 events in East Asia have served to support our apprehension about China's rise as a world power. Indeed some events described in this book have now taken place.

China has encroached upon disputed territory in the South China Sea. Its forces have skirmished with the Philippine Navy. It has taken an oil exploration vessel into Vietnamese-claimed waters. As forecast in Dragonstrike, China has bought two Russian frigates in its continuing efforts to create a blue water navy. The government has announced a strategic alliance with Russia to take it into the 21st century. There have been demonstrations against the Japanese occupation of the disputed islands in the East China Sea.

One of China's first acts after taking back Hong Kong was to repeal human rights and democracy legislation. The government is continuing to ignore appeals about human rights abuses in China. The Communist Party has reaffirmed its commitment to indefinite one-party rule.

This paperback edition is going to print as President Jiang Zemin is due in Washington for a summit with President Clinton. This will help determine modern China's position on the world stage. The main debate however about whether China is a weak developing nation or a global threat will continue. We expect more elements of the Dragonstrike's future history to be proved correct. But we hope that ultimately enough attention is paid to China to ensure that our final predictions are wrong. As yet, we are unconvinced.

HH SH