Dragon Strike: The Millennium War

FOUR

The first American fatality in action on the Korean Peninsula during the Dragonstrike campaign was shot with a 45mm automatic pistol in the shopping area of Itaewon, one of Seoul's busiest market areas. He collapsed near a Kentucky Fried Chicken store among the bags and coats hanging on a stall and died immediately. He was identified as a Marine corporal attached to the Embassy in Seoul. His killer melted into the crowd. Onlookers who saw the gunman did nothing but watch in terror. Over the next three hours five more Americans died in similar shootings, all carried out in the open in crowded parts of the city. Twenty-three South Koreans were also shot dead and seventy were wounded. There were at least four random drive-by shootings with AK47 automatic rifles: customers in a coffee shop, pedestrians crossing a major intersection, outside Chong-gak station, and a crowd coming out of the Piccadilly Cinema in Central Seoul, together with four drivers who died from sniper fire along the main highway north towards the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, less than 40 kilometres away. The South Korean Defence Ministry estimated that at least five small coastal submarines had landed up to a hundred special forces commandos along the South Korean coastline. The submarines were originally designed in Yugoslavia, but since the early 1960s the North Koreans had been building their own. About fifty of these boats of several different designs were operational. Some were tasked with mine laying, others with infiltrating the special forces, with torpedo attacks, and with reconnaissance. American satellite photographs taken hours after the first killings in Seoul showed that the submarines were operating from two mother ships, the adapted cargo freighters Dong Hae-ho in the Sea of Japan and the Song Rim-ho in the Yellow Sea.

Almost certainly more commando units were on board waiting for a second wave of landings. These troops were the elite of the North Korean military and their skills at survival, covert operations, assassination, and explosives were considered equal to or even better than those of the best Western powers. Those specifically trained for submarine operations belonged to the 22nd Battle Group of the Reconnaissance Bureau, a highly specialized unit made up of eight battalions. The Bureau worked closely with the Special Purpose Forces Command which was an elite army of its own with 88,000 men trained in all aspects of covert operations and amphibious and airborne warfare. It was with this force of just over 100,000 men that North Korea had fought its war of nerves with the South for so long. The men were chosen for their loyalty, stamina, physical strength, and intelligence. They trained to such a high level that many units were hired out to protect Third World leaders, they operated in at least twelve African countries and the late Prince Norodom Sihanouk of Cambodia had rarely travelled without them because of his fear of assassination. North Korean special forces had been blamed for a number of terrorist operations, including the murder of members of the South Korean cabinet in a bomb attack in 1983 during a visit to Burma and the destruction of a South Korean airliner in 1987. Tonight, as the world was preoccupied with the Dragonstrike war, the same deadly troops were in the heart of South Korea on a mission to destabilize the government, wreck the economy, and terrorize the population.

A security guard at the Westin Chosun Hotel stopped a North Korean agent during the late evening rush hour. For years, as South Korea had fortified itself against northern threats, the eighteen-storey, half moon-shaped Westin Chosun had been a home away from home for diplomats, journalists, and the military. It was set back from the road by a long, curved driveway. The general manager was reluctant to disrupt his guest with stringent checks and searches, so he decided to increase covert surveillance. Security staff, mingling with guests, spotted a North Korean agent entering the huge revolving door into the foyer. He wore a badly cut suit and walked awkwardly across the marble floor. He was ill at ease in the warm and elegant atmosphere created by the oak panelling and Victorian gas-lamp-style lighting. Several times he asked the way to O'Kim's bar in the basement, a favourite haunt for expatriates. He approached the reception desk on the left, then walked quickly across to the coffee shop. He was both arrogant and impatient, swearing in Korean as his route was blocked by tour-group suitcases roped together next to the concierge's desk. By the time he found the stairs down to the bar, security staff throughout the hotel had been alerted. The agent was challenged. Immediately, the North Korean took out a knife, but not to threaten people around him. He held it out only to keep the guard at bay for the few seconds it took for him to draw a small pistol from inside his jacket and shoot himself in the head.

China's Ambassador to Washington, Jiang Hua, made no secret of his displeasure at being summoned so summarily. But he shielded his anger with diplomatic urbanity and then genuine surprise. The Americans had broken with protocol and escorted him straight through to the President of the United States.

Bradlay chose to talk to the Ambassador sitting on the comfortable chairs. The other senior cabinet officials sat flanking the Ambassador. They didn't speak. It was enough that they were all connected with the defence forces. Commerce and trade were not an issue for this meeting. The President waited until the coffee was served. Tea, which he knew the Ambassador preferred, wasn't offered, with the message that coffee in the morning was an entrenched part of American culture. The President later admitted he had toyed with the idea of ordering in doughnuts, but thought that might be taking it too far. He first made small talk about the winter chill which was gripping Washington. The Ambassador mentioned the below-freezing temperatures in Beijing. Then when the President moved on to the South China Sea his tone hardened, but his manner remained amiable. `Ambassador, we've just had some polls done on the broadcast by Jake Walker, the oil worker, which ran on your evening news. You must have seen it on CNN. China was pretty unpopular, what with Vietnam and all that, before the broadcast. Now my voters want me to blow your country to hell.'

`I don't think that is a helpful way of looking at complex international-'

Bradlay interrupted: `We know that. That's why we're looking for your help.'

`You want my help?'

`Your government's help. Yes,' continued the President. `I need to separate the issue of the South China Sea, which as you say is complex, from that of Americans being held hostage…'

`Hostage is not correct.'

`They can't leave. They are being held by Chinese troops. You're broadcasting badly shot videos as if you're a bunch of Middle East terrorists. So listen, please.'

The Ambassador nodded.

`Voters in a democracy do not explore issues with the complexity which we might sometimes hope for, Ambassador. We would like to deal with your claim to the South China Sea, your war with Vietnam, and the security of trade routes to and from the Pacific without American voters breathing down our necks. In order to do that, we need to get those Americans off the Paracel Islands and back home. So I have ordered one of our amphibious assault ships, the USS Peleliu, with support vessels to sail to Discovery Reef and pick them up. They should be there in twenty-six hours. Could you tell President Wang Feng that we are not challenging your claims? We are carrying out a humanitarian mission. Only after that is successfully completed will we talk to you about the more complex issues.'

`I will have to refer back to the President. I can give no guarantees.'

`We're expecting you to guarantee the safety of this humanitarian mission, Ambassador.'

The 36,967 ton Tarawa class amphibious assault ship USS Peleliu, which had been with the Nimitz carrier group off the Cagayan Islands, had already been alerted to the possibility of a marine rescue of American citizens. Her support ships took up positions. The nuclear-powered Los Angeles class attack submarine USS Olympia from Pearl Harbor led the group. The Oliver Hazard Perry class guided-missile frigate USS Ford and the Spruance class destroyers USS Oldendorf, USS O'Brien, and USS Hewitt spread out like a crescent in front of the USS Peleliu with the oiler USS Willamette nestled in the middle. The Ticonderoga class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill took up the rear. The battle group had five anti-submarine-warfare helicopters. Two flew ahead of the warships.

The USS Peleliu was one of the American navy's most versatile instruments of war, and especially suited for the type of operation in which the United States had found itself embroiled after the end of the Cold War. She was 65 metres high, the equivalent of a twenty-storey building, 250 metres long, equal to three football fields, and her flight deck was 35 metres wide. She could deliver a balanced payload of combat-ready Marines, together with equipment and supplies, and get them ashore either by helicopter or amphibious craft. Aft was a huge wet-dock. The stern of the ship was lowered into the water and the vessels floated out. Today the USS Peleliu carried 15 CH53-E troop transportation helicopters, each with a capacity for 36 Marines, together with 4 AH-1 Sea Cobra helicopters. These sleek and dangerous aircraft were armed with a multiple weapons system of Hell-Fire, Tose, Sidewinder, and Maverick missiles as well as a 25mm nose gun. Tied down aft were 5 AV8-B Harrier air support vertical-take-off jets, based on the British Aerospace Harrier design, with a weapons payload of cluster and free-fall bombs, rockets, cannon, and air-to-air missiles. Her fixed on-board armaments were defensive. On the port-side bow was the Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) system which could fire salvoes of two high-explosive and fragmentation missiles up to 4 kilometres. On the starboard side were two Vulcan Phalanx Close-In Weapons Systems (CIWS) capable of firing 4,000 rounds a minute of depleted-uranium shells at any approaching hostile object. In the holds were hundreds of tonnes of medical supplies and foodstuffs which could be delivered to disaster or war victims. The engineering plant could provide enough electricity and fresh water for a population of 6,000 people. Her hospital was designed to take up to 300 patients. It had four operating rooms where the most complex and difficult surgery caused by war and catastrophe could be performed. All the oil workers rescued from the Paracels would undergo a medical check here as soon as they were brought safely on board. She sailed through the Mindoro Straits, 150 kilometres south of Manila, at 20 knots. Her destination, the Paracel Islands, was twenty-six hours away. The USS Nimitz, with her formidable power projection, held back in the Sulu Sea on the edge of China's zone of control. The Pentagon believed the Chinese would now hand over the oil workers without conflict.

The orders to the captain of the USS Peleliu were to do nothing except take back the hostages and leave the South China Sea. The USS Peleliu and her escorts continued west-north-west towards the Paracels. 300 of the 1,800 Marines on board were made ready. Only twelve were to travel in eight aircraft. Their task was to bring back twenty-four oil workers in each helicopter. The ship's captain was in contact with the Pacific Fleet headquarters in Hawaii. No one expected a fight.

British policy on Operation Dragonstrike was being moulded by the brightest men in the Civil Service. The Cabinet Office Chairman of the Overseas Policy and Defence Committee prepared to open a meeting which would make recommendations to the ministerial committee within the next hour. He was also a member of the Joint Intelligence Committee, making him one of Britain's most influential civil servants. Eight of his colleagues put their papers on a large square table which dated back to the eighteenth century. The high-ceilinged rooms of the Cabinet Office on the corner of Whitehall and Downing Street had been used in crises for centuries to discuss British national interests in far-flung parts of the world. Today each of the salient departments was represented: the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence, the Department of Trade, the Treasury, and the three key branches of the intelligence services, the Security Service, better known to the public as MI5, which deals with any threat against the United Kingdom, the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, which unlike the Central Intelligence Agency deals only with intelligence which is gathered secretly, and the SIGINT GCHQ listening posts. A CIA representative was also present, in marked contrast to Britain's European partners, none of whom had been asked. Meetings like this were evidence that despite the public posturing of governments towards European integration and a common foreign policy, in a crisis America and Great Britain worked as one.

The Chairman opened the discussion by summarizing the situation as of 1230. The meeting's task was to set out the options and recommend a course of action for the Cabinet Committee on Defence and Overseas Policy, which would begin at 1400, chaired by the Prime Minister. The tone was sober and practical. But they had to imagine the unimaginable: with the USS Peleliu entering the South China Sea, in what way would Britain give practical and moral military support if called upon?

The Ministry of Defence said that a significant British naval presence, together with Australian and New Zealand warships, happened to be in the South China Sea on deployment through Asia to Australia. The task force had been taking part in exercises of the Five-Power Defence Agreement off the Malaysian coast. The ships were anchored off Bandar Seri Begawan, the capital of Brunei. The 20,600 ton Invincible class aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal, with 9 Sea Harrier fighters and 12 Westland Sea King and Merlin helicopters, led the most complex mixed group in the Asian region since the British withdrawal from Hong Kong four years earlier. Accompanying her were the Duke class frigates HMS Sutherland, which had only been commissioned in 1997 and HMS Montrose, and the nineteen-year-old Type 42 class destroyer HMS Liverpool. The state of the art 16,000 ton assault ship HMS Albion, commissioned only the previous year, had 300 Marines on board. They were being made ready for any evacuation of foreign nationals. HMS Ark Royal also had with her the Trafalgar class nuclear attack submarine HMS Triumph. The Australians had the Anzac class frigate HMAS Parramatta and the Adelaide class frigate HMAS Sydney, together with a diesel-powered Collins class submarine, HMAS Rankin, commissioned in 1997. New Zealand had the Leander class frigate HMNZS Canterbury. British, Australian, and New Zealand special forces, who had been training near Invercargill, on New Zealand's South Island, were being flown to Bandar Seri Begawan to join the ships.

The Ministry of Defence then said that the Sultan of Brunei had, however, asked that the warships remain anchored so as not to inflame the crisis. The CIA representative asked whether Britain would be prepared to go against the Sultan's wishes. The Chairman was equivocal, replying that because Brunei deposited much of its money in British banks, it would be better to leave his territory with his assent.

The Foreign Office said that more than 200 Britons were caught up in the conflict. Some 50 were oil workers. The rest were mostly in northern Vietnam, including a group of four English language teachers in the city of Lang Son, on the Chinese border. They had reported the city filling up with Vietnamese troops. Local residents were certain there would be an attack across the border. The CIA and GCHQ representatives confirmed that their own COMINT (communications) and ELINT (electronic) intelligence supported that account. The CIA representative affirmed that the National Security Agency also held that view. He added that satellite IMINT (imagery intelligence) had picked up Chinese Su-27s on the runway of the captured Terumbi Layang-layang island, which was claimed by Malaysia.

The CIA representative asked if any other European military forces would be involved. The Chairman replied that if the United States wished for symbolic support several other governments could be invited to join. If, however, they were actually going into action against China, it was best to keep it tight: America, France, and Britain. The conclusions of the meeting, which were, remarkably, unanimous for so many different departments, were printed out for the ministers within forty-five minutes. The Prime Minister's Committee on Defence and Overseas Policy decided to give full public support for the humanitarian mission of the USS Peleliu. It decided that the Ark Royal task force would sail from Brunei with or without the Sultan's blessing. British support would continue through to conflict if necessary. High Commissioners reported back from Canberra and Wellington that Australia's and New Zealand's warships would stay with the group under the operational control of the Ark Royal.

Foreign correspondents were called to the Foreign Ministry briefing room at thirty minutes' notice for a news conference by Jamie Song. Unlike the previous venue at the tatty International Club in the Jiangguomenwei diplomatic compound, the media room at the new Foreign Ministry building was a gleaming example of Asian high-tech communications. A huge screen behind the stage carried a coloured map of South-East Asia. Technicians flashed lights on and off to test the equipment before Jamie Song arrived. The CCTV cameras were allowed to the front. Several international networks were taking live feeds. The Foreign Minister arrived twenty minutes late, walked straight onto the stage, and spoke in English without interpreters for the benefit of the live transmissions.

`I'm sorry to have called you all here at such short notice,' he began. `And to have interrupted your evening. Unfortunately, it is turning into a busy few days. I have just come from Zhongnanhai. I won't keep you long. About an hour ago, the Ambassadors of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines, under instructions from their governments, signed a Memorandum of Understanding which reaffirmed previous policy on the South China Sea. In a nutshell, it means they recognize Chinese sovereignty. All exploitation of oil, gas, and mineral reserves will be done in agreement with each other. No foreign forces will be allowed in the area. China is responsible for security. Commercial trade routes will not be affected. Outside the MOU, all the governments have agreed to help bring Vietnam back into our regional community. My government believes that after a decent interval, China and Vietnam can live in peace with mutual cooperation. I have time to take a couple of questions. But keep them specific on the MOU. I'm not taking anything on the South China Sea in general.'

`Foreign Minister. The BBC. Why is Brunei not included?'

`We wanted to follow the aspirations of the 1970 Declaration on the Zone of Peace Freedom and Neutrality, as laid down in the 1972 ZOPFAN guidelines. Numbers five and ten refer to foreign military presence in the region. Brunei retains a British military base on its soil. There are British warships there at present. This is not a major issue and as soon as the British leave, we will welcome Brunei with open arms. The French presence in Vietnam, of course, constrains the membership of Hanoi. We hope that, too, is temporary. We are in discussions with Singapore and Malaysia to bring to an end the facilities they offer to Western military powers. Those of you familiar with the ZOPFAN document may want to quote back at me guideline eleven which prohibits the use, storage, passage, and testing of nuclear weapons. I can reveal that President Wang assured the Ambassadors that China's long-term plan was to abandon its nuclear programme. But as you know these things take time.'

`CNN, Foreign Minister. What about Laos and Cambodia?'

`When Vietnam returns, so will they. Two more questions.'

`Straits Times, Singapore. Why has Indonesia not signed?'

`Indonesia is the largest country by far in South-East Asia. It is generally in agreement, but we need more time to work out the details.' `New York Times. Will commercial shipping now be able to travel unimpeded and if that is the case will you now be returning the Shell New World to its rightful owners and releasing the crew from captivity?'

Jamie Song looked at his watch, then answered: `The Shell New World incident is being investigated. The People's Liberation Army was not involved. Now, there are press kits on the table on the side. The enlarged map behind me sets out the new Friendship and Cooperation Zone of East Asia.' As the Foreign Minister left the stage, red lights illuminated the countries which had signed the MOU, so that they were indistinguishable from China itself. Chris Bronowski, commenting live into the CNN coverage of the news conference, said: `We are seeing the first map of China's twenty-first-century empire.'

`Can you be more specific?' prompted the anchor.

`Yes. There is a swath of areas which historically came under the control of the Chinese emperors d which China still claims. Burma or Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos were dominated by the Manchus. China claimed suzerainty over Korea. It claims and controls Tibet. It also has claims on the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, where it doesn't recognize Bhutanese sovereignty, and on the Indian state of Sikkim, whose annexation by the Indian government it also refuses to recognize. It may want to revive a claim on Mongolia which came under Moscow's control when the Manchus collapsed in 1911. My guess is that President Wang wants to reassemble China in its former glory under the more acceptable Friendship and Cooperation Zone of East Asia.'

Colonel Etienne Gerbet was shown into the President Nguyen's office. The President was on the telephone and Colonel Gerbet surveyed the room cautiously. The presidential office was dignified, but not overly stuffy. Pictures of the President's family were displayed on a sideboard along with a multitude of other photographs of world leaders and regional politicians Nguyen had met during his rise to power.

`Welcome to Hanoi, Colonel. I trust your flight was uneventful,' Nguyen said.

`Quite uneventful, thank you, sir,' the Colonel replied.

`Well, shall we get down to business? I understand from the conversation I had with President Dargaud on Sunday that he would be sending me something special. Are you it?'

`In a manner of speaking, sir. If I may be permitted…' The President nodded his assent; Gerbet opened an attache case and removed some papers and computer floppy disks. `What I have here, sir, is a suggestion for how we might be able to help you… level the battlefield, as it were. How familiar are you with the term "information warfare"?'

`Not at all. Go on.'

`Your forces have since Sunday been engaged in operations in southern China. Groups of up to ten men have penetrated deep into Chinese territory and sowed confusion among the local townspeople. The attack on Monday at Xiatong when the local Party Secretary and Head of Public Security were killed in their beds was particularly effective. We have reason to believe that the Chinese have had about as much as they are going to take of this sort of harassment of their border towns. They are, in fact, preparing a force, lightly armoured, and of about 50,000 troops, to stage a retaliatory strike across the border. We have reason to believe that they plan to raze Lang Son in revenge.'

`I am impressed with your knowledge not only of our operations but also of the intentions of the Chinese. But what has this to do with… information warfare?' Nguyen asked.

`I was coming to that. President Dargaud has authorized me and my men to assist your army in defeating the Chinese attack. We expect it will come quite soon.'

`We have had experience in beating the Chinese before, Colonel. Why do we need your help?'

`I have the utmost respect for the Vietnamese soldiers, sir, and I have no doubt that they could, as in 1979, deliver a bloody nose to the Chinese. However, what we are offering you is a way of preserving your army and delivering a knock-out blow to the Chinese at the same time.'

`Go on.'

`We have the capability to see the battlefield in its entirety and assist your army with target selection. In real time we can pinpoint the position of Chinese tanks and troop deployments. With this information your heavy artillery, rockets, and mortars ought to be able to do the rest. How can we do this? I am not authorized to go into details but we, like the Americans, and the Chinese for that matter, have satellites in the sky. We've positioned one of our best over the Chinese-Vietnamese border since the war began on Sunday. It is able to communicate with our embassy here in Hanoi and from there by microwave link to Lang Son. We can do the rest. But I am also authorized to make one more offer of assistance. The Chinese army has bought many, though not all, of its battlefield information systems from us. Indeed, they widely use a Thomson-CSF Star Burst battlefield information manager. Although I cannot go into details we are able to ensure that the system fails at a time that would be helpful to your forces.'

President Wang remained an elusive figure. In keeping with Chinese political tradition he cultivated an image of omnipotence through his skilful behind-the-scenes manipulation of events. His people saw pictures of him on their television sets and in the newspapers meeting foreign dignitaries and chairing important meetings. But unlike his predecessors he rarely left the high red walls surrounding Zhongnanhai to venture outside the capital and only marginally more often travelled within it. Throughout the day Chinese Central Television and local radio stations had been broadcasting that he would address the nation at 10.15 p.m. in a special TV news bulletin. A studio in Zhongnanhai had been fitted out especially for the broadcast. The President was to sit at a table. Behind him would be a deep red screen supporting a crane in full flight. The crane is north Asia's most prized bird — revered in China, as well as Korea and Japan. At 10 p.m. he entered the studio, chatted with the young female make-up artist and the crew. He sat down and waited for the signal to begin recording his message to the nation.

`People of China,' he began, `I speak to you tonight about a crisis facing our country. I have no doubt that with the help of the great Chinese people we will succeed. Since the Opium Wars of the nineteenth century Western capitalism has never stopped its aggression against China and its plundering of China. Today our heroic forces are fighting to regain our sovereignty over the Nanshas [Spratly Islands] and the great waters that surround them preserve for the motherland riches that rightly belong to the people of China.

`Let me explain why. There is a vast sea to the south of the motherland e South China Sea which covers an area of 3,200,000 square kilometres of our territorial waters. The beautiful and bountiful Nanshas are located in the southern part of this vast sea. The Nanshas have belonged to China since ancient times.

`Yet the capitalist powers have never stopped casting their greedy eyes on the big treasure house of these islands. In the short period of sixty years since the first illegal survey of the Nanshas by a British ship in 1867, other countries occupied and plundered the archipelago on more than ten occasions. Even today, there are over fifty petroleum consortia from more than ten countries and regions that have long prospected for oil in the Nansha waters. Moreover, some forces have even attempted to turn the Nanshas into so-called international high seas and occupy the precious wealth.

`This brings me to the interference in the internal affairs of China by third parties. Any discussion of this can proceed only from the accepted principle that China brooks no interference in its internal affairs. We will absolutely not permit any foreigners to interfere.

`Even though the United States has the greatest national strength, it cannot have its own way to the point where it has the final say on world affairs. To maintain its status as the only superpower, the United States has to make a desperate attempt to contain other countries' development. US relations with foreign countries, such as with the European Union and Japan, are relations of cooperation rather than containment, while its relations with Russia and China are relations of containment rather than cooperation.

`The Chinese people desire peace. Why else would we have signed today in Beijing a Memorandum of Understanding with our South-East Asian neighbours? We do not want war. We want peace. Today's agreement was freely entered into by all parties. China's place in Asia is at the heart of Asia. Our friends in the region understand that. Like us they view with anger and dismay the resurgence of militarism in Japan. Japan is the biggest threat to regional stability we have. There are none more so than the Chinese who understand the true nature of the Japanese. Their despicable grab for territory in the 1930s, their slaughter of women and children in Nanjing and Shanghai, their use of opium to control our people in old Manchuria showed the Japanese to be the vilest of all the imperialists who gorged themselves while the Chinese people starved.

`Following the end of the Cold War, Japan changed its defence strategy from one concentrated on repelling potential Soviet attacks to one based on confrontation with China. But we warn Japan, as we warn the United States, whoever plays with fire will perish by fire. And I remind both countries of the words of Long March veteran Wang Zhen: "We have the experience of dealing with the Americans on the battlefield. They are nothing terrible. The war theatre may be selected by the Americans, in Korea or Taiwan. They have nuclear weapons; so have we."'

The water along the two main shipping lanes through the Mindoro Straits was only 60 metres deep in places. The Apo West Pass ran along the northern coastline of the Calamian Group of islands, rugged, poor, Philippine fishing outposts whose boats were ignoring the Chinese warnings and were out working. To the north-east was the Apo East Pass, which ran along the coast of Mindoro Island, and it was through here that the commander of the USS Peleliu steered his amphibious group towards the South China Sea.

The shallow water and the noise thrown out by dozens of small fishing vessels made it an ideal arena of battle for the Chinese diesel-electric submarines, waiting at 50 metres below the surface. Some were even resting on the seabed, their main motors cut and so completely silent that they were undetectable by even the most modern submarine equipment.

Yet the commander of Ming 353 knew exactly what he was looking for. Six hours earlier, when the Dong Fang Hong 6 Chinese military satellite was passing, the submarine had raised a satellite communications (SATCOM) mast to receive a message which was constantly beamed down from space. In less than thirty seconds the submarine went deep again. The order was to attack the USS Peleliu as soon as she entered the South China Sea. In the following hours, every other Chinese submarine in the South China Sea received the same instructions.

The fifty-seven officers and men had been cramped on board Ming 353 for more than three weeks now. They slept in narrow three-tiered bunks which were squeezed against the bulkhead, sharing sleeping bags and pillows. Only a filthy cloth curtain divided each bunk from the corridor. Even the patience of the Chinese ratings, recruited from the harsh mountain provinces, was being tested. They couldn't wash. They had no change of clothes. Everyone had sprouted thin beards. The whole vessel stank of cooking fat, diesel, and sweat. Equipment was suffering from the constant changes of humidity. Condensation flowed down everything.

The task of identifying the American warship would have been the envy of any submarine commander. He knew when she was coming through and the course she was sailing. He also had on file the complete acoustic signature of the USS Peleliu, meticulously copied on the several occasions she had called in at Hong Kong before the British left in 1997. Chinese military intelligence operating in the Pearl River Delta was able to record every sound the ship made. In an ideal military world, the propeller design, size, and speed of naval ships would remain a closely guarded secret. But the USS Peleliu had been operating in the Pacific for twenty years and China had her exact propeller characteristics. It had also pieced together details as intricate and unique as a human fingerprint. It had recorded the auxiliary power plants; the sewage plant; the hydraulic lifts which carried aircraft from deck to deck; the compressors which filled hospital bottles with oxygen and gas. All of these sounds made up the ship's acoustic signature, which had been copied onto CD-ROM with the signatures of dozens of other warships. The Chinese had equipped their antiquated submarines with Pentium-chip laptop computers. They were no more than off-the-shelf office equipment. But this was a world where civilian technology was outstripping the military. The sonar operators on the Ming 353 simply recognized the USS Peleliu's signature from their laptop screen.

The commander ordered the Ming up to periscope depth to try to confirm the target with Electronic Surveillance Measures. Within thirty seconds, the ESM mast had absorbed the electromagnetic spectrum around it, taking in the USS Peleliu's navigation radar, encrypted tactical communications, and satellite communications. The data made up the ESM fingerprint, which was analysed with the acoustic fingerprint in the Ming's own Tactical Weapons System computer. The submarine commander now had a near certain classification of his target and could take the decision to close within firing range.

When he was 1,700 metres away he had a strong urge to carry out a more dangerous, but also more accurate, `eyes only' attack using the periscope. He knew the American anti-submarine warfare detection equipment might find him before the torpedoes hit. But that was the risk of the job. He would use straight running torpedoes, of the old 1960s design, weapons which in naval jargon cannot be seduced by electronic countermeasures. Their rudimentary mechanical system would ignore the decoys thrown out by the USS Peleliu to change their course. The American commander would attempt to project a bogus acoustic signature of the USS Peleliu several thousand metres away from the real ship. Another countermeasure would simply be white noise, like the hissing of a fire extinguisher, which would appear louder than the ship itself.

The commander kept the periscope up for five seconds to obtain a firing solution. He was 30g on the bow of the target. He put the periscope down. With his acoustic, electronic, and optical information matched, he opened the torpedo doors. He took the periscope up. What he saw, however, made him take it down immediately, wait ten seconds, and raise it again. The Seahawk helicopter crew had identified the periscope of a second submarine. The vessel went deep, but the helicopter crew dropped two Mk46 torpedoes. The explosion of a Romeo submarine being destroyed ripped through the water. This was the moment the commander of Ming 353 asked for his firing solution. He was 850 metres from the target.

He released the first weapon at a bearing of 90g to the target course. This was the middle torpedo of his salvo of three. The swell swept around the periscope, cutting off his view of the target. But he had already worked out the firing pattern. The next was fired 5g ahead of the bearing, the third 5g behind. He completed what is known as the zero gyro-angle shot, creating a spread of weapons to counteract either the target speeding up or turning away.

The Americans had twenty-six seconds to react. In a scrambling panic, they threw out electronic countermeasures. But the low-tech torpedoes, made up of only an engine and warhead, kept their course. The American captain began to turn the USS Peleliu to port to evade the torpedoes, but it was a useless gesture with such a lumbering vessel.

The Ming commander had set the first weapon with a proximity fuse which went off 2 metres below the hull. The explosion blew a hole in the bottom and ruptured systems in a large area of the ship. The second torpedo, with an impact fuse, had a direct hit, stopping the ship's engines. The third weapon passed in front of her bow and detonated.

The crew of a second Seahawk scrambled and took off from the USS Bunker Hill. They dropped a pattern of sonobuoys in the area of the attack and over the next three hours they found and destroyed one other Ming and two more Romeo submarines with torpedoes and depth charges. But Ming 353 and one other escaped. When the crews returned to their base on Hainan Island, they were hailed as heroes. There had been six submarines waiting to strike the USS Peleliu. Military experts debated as to how much the Chinese commanders had been inspired by the German Second World War wolf-pack tactic of stretching up to fifty U-boats in a net across the paths of Allied convoys in the Atlantic. They would often be on the surface and only dive when attacking. Some German commanders actually attacked on the surface, driving their vessels between the lines of the convoy using guns and torpedoes. The key was surprise and daring, similar to the risks taken by the commander of Ming 353. As the Dragonstrike war continued, Allied naval officers referred to the clusters of Chinese submarines as wolf-packs.

Normally a submarine commander would head away from the attack datum or area of battle. But Ming 353 went deep to 45 metres. Adopting the tactics of outdated warfare, the submarine headed towards the area of turmoil where the USS Peleliu was on fire, listing, and beginning to sink. The American helicopter pilots knew that the attacker was hiding among the debris of the sinking ship. The Ming crew could hear detonations on board and the crushing of the bulkheads under pressure. But the captain judged that Americans would never fire into sea where their compatriots were dying.

Water burst into the main decks, which were designed as huge aircraft hangars with no bulkhead divisions to seal one area off from another. The water moved back and forth in what seamen know as the free-surface effect. It sloshed in a swell from one side to the other, making the vessel more and more unstable. Unwittingly, firefighting teams added to the problems by pouring high-pressure water on fires which had broken out below decks. Pilots of three CH53-Echo helicopters managed to get airborne, cramming fifty passengers into each aircraft. Five lifeboats and two of the larger landing craft were launched. The USS Peleliu took twenty-five minutes to capsize and sink. In that short time, 585 people managed to get off the vessel. But the rest, 1,960 American servicemen, including the United States Navy captain in command and the Marine Expeditionary Unit colonel, died.

The Chinese orders were to sink only the USS Peleliu, after which the PLA believed America would pull out of South-East Asia. Ironically, the last previous major American warship to be destroyed in battle was the fleet ocean tug USS Sarsi, blown up by a mine in August 1952 during the Korean War. In that conflict, China was also the enemy.

The President's press secretary mounted the podium.

`The President will be coming down here shortly to make a statement about the sinking of the USS Peleliu. I am going to tell you now so there's no misunderstanding about ground rules: the President will not be taking any questions, you hear? Good.'

Just as his press secretary was concluding his remarks Bradlay appeared. He was wearing a dark suit and a black tie. Lack of sleep showed in the dark circles under his eyes.

`At ten o'clock Washington time, the USS Peleliu on humanitarian service in the international waters of the South China Sea was attacked by a Chinese submarine and sunk. We do not have precise figures as yet but I am advised there are unlikely to be many survivors from the ship's nearly 2,000 strong complement of men and Marines. The actions of the Chinese in perpetrating this deed are contemptible. Our prayers and thoughts are with the families of the men and women who served on the Peleliu. Their sacrifice will not have been in vain. It will be avenged. I have instructed my staff to prepare a necessary response to this outrage. I will be talking with our allies in the hours ahead and I plan to address the nation tomorrow morning with a definitive statement of our plans. Thank you and God bless.'

As Bradlay collected his paper and began to walk towards the exit the assembled reporters began to call out questions in the hope that he would respond.

`Mr President, are we going to strike back?'

`Have you placed our nuclear forces on alert?'

`What can we do—'

At the last he wheeled around, to the astonishment of his aides, and said: `I'll tell you what we're going to do. We're going right back to where they sank our ship. We are going to recover our dead. And we are not going to let anything stand in our way.' And with that he was off through the entrance preserved for administration officials.

Markets react to news like a barometer to pressure. The fall of the Dow Jones was as swift as the news of the USS Peleliu was terrible. Within minutes the index was 235.14 lower at 7,602.86. The dollar shot up. An indication of just how stressed markets became that day is given by the behaviour of currencies. The dollar is quoted in terms of yen, say, with one bank offering to buy at 144.45 yen and sell at 145.55. In big currencies like the yen the spread is always tight. On that Tuesday afternoon, the spreads widened a whole yen.

This was of little consequence to Damian Phillips. He had been called by his London office as soon as the news of the Peleliu's sinking hit the trading screens in London. He had the event he was looking for. Now was the time to cover the short yen positions his dealers had built up in the previous month. There was an avalanche of yen for sale. Japan was seen as the big loser out of war between the US and China war that looked to be imminent. The yen had fallen to 152.55 to the dollar and was finding little stability even at those levels. The Bank of England, on behalf of the Bank of Japan, was buying yen for dollars, but to little avail. The Japanese currency had depreciated more than 20 per cent in two days. First China, which had sold little yen in the previous two days, was sitting on paper profits of billion. As the currency fell against the dollar First China's `yen shorts' were reversed.

In the dealing room of the Bank of International Commerce in London it was pandemonium. Dealers were screaming down telephones, some three at once. Patiently, however, Mark Fuller, chief dealer dollar/yen, was contemplating the arrival of all his Christmases at once. Fuller, thirty-two, was the classic London foreign exchange dealer. He had started his life in the City as a delivery boy and graduated to the bank's settlements department. His talent for numbers had been spotted by National Westminster Bank, where he worked for eight years. He had never looked back. He drove a Morgan (green) and lived in Chelmsford in Essex. He had been a seller of the yen all week. No one wanted to hold it. No one, that is, until First China told him to buy all the yen he could up to billion. Fuller had never had an order like it before. He knew First China. For the past month it had been active in the dollar/yen market, especially in the short positions it had accumulated. He watched the screen before him. It showed all the banks making prices in dollar/yen. And, in the jargon of the market, he `hit' them. In three hours he had bought all the yen First China wanted. What he did not fact could not ow was that at an average of.80 General Zhao of Multitechnologies had just made the best part of $210 million.

Oil markets took fright as well. The spot price of Brent Crude — the bell-weather price for over 70 per cent of the world's trade in oil — arched higher and broke through the $40 a barrel barrier. In the futures market, the 160,000 April contracts which First China owned rose higher. First China's oil trader sold into this rally as much of the position he could. By the end of trading he had managed to sell a further 80,000 contracts at a profit to his client of more than $600 million.

The underground control centre of Defence Research Facility 317 had the well-lit antiseptic look of a hospital and the decor to match. A Fujitsu supercomputer was in a room of its own, slightly over-pressurized so that when its door was opened the flow of air was out of, rather than into, the room. In the main control area there were four banks of computers and screens all manned by technicians. On the far wall was a large electronic map of the western Pacific. In addition to the geography of the area, it also identified the position of the Japanese navy, as well as the navies of China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A digital display was counting the minutes and seconds backwards towards zero.

Defence Research Facility 317 was located on Chichijima, the main island in the Ogasawara group. The islands' original settlers were a polyglot bunch of Americans, English, Welsh, and Polynesians led by Nathaniel Savory of Massachusetts. They arrived on Chichijima in 1830. It was not until 1873 that Japan claimed sovereignty over the islands; the settlers wisely acknowledged their new status immediately by swearing allegiance to the Empire of Japan. Even in 2001 many of the `old islanders' had distinctly European and Polynesian features. It was during the Second World War, however, that the islands' strategic significance was exploited. Chichijima was a major staging area for Japan's invasion of the Marianas, Solomons, Philippines, and points south. Its huge radio facility atop Mount Yoake gave orders to Japan's entire Pacific fleet. One of the islands in the group, Iwo Jima, was the site of some of the most bloody combat the Americans encountered in the spring of 1945 as they edged towards the Japanese mainland. It was not until 1968 that the Ogasawaras were returned to Japan. They were much as Japan had left them. The mountains were honeycombed with tunnels that led to copper-lined suites of rooms. Although they were put under the titular administration of the Ministry of Finance, the Japanese navy — then called the Maritime Self-Defence Force reoccupied the islands. In the 1990s the air force built an airport on Anijima, just across from Chichijima. It was capable of taking the latest fighters and military transport aircraft.

The Japanese are a thrifty race. They waste little. Painstakingly they restored the tunnels and rooms. The copper was removed and recycled and in its place was put steel, lead, and concrete. Accommodation for more than 150 permanent scientists (and up to 60 visitors) was fashioned inside the rock. Electric power and state-of-the-art satellite communications were installed. By 2000 the facility was fully operational and its purpose as a nuclear weapons research facility a closely held secret. The research station deep in the mountains of Chichijima was, however, the most important part of a much larger enterprise. 50 kilometres to the east a tiny, never before inhabited speck in the Pacific had been prepared to receive Japan's first nuclear test. A hole some 120 metres deep had been drilled and a 50 kiloton device lowered to its bottom. To create an explosion equal to 50,000 tons of TNT is quite easy, if you have the materials. The `active' ingredients for Japan's first nuclear test weighed barely 5 kilograms. A 50 kiloton bomb required a few kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium. The bomb had been assembled on Okinawa a week before the Chinese attack on Vietnam and its seizure of the South China Sea. It had been flown in utmost secrecy to Chichijima on Monday. Engineers worked throughout the night to lower the bomb to the bottom of the well.

The digital display counted back towards zero.