Second Strike

CHAPTER 28

^{FORT BELVOIR, VIRGINIA,}

^{AUGUST 15, 4:15 P.M. EDT}

Once again, Laura, I have no idea what I’m looking at.”

“You’re looking at a wide-angle shot of the Caucasus to provide perspective, not detail,” said Laura Casini. “It’s helpful to orient yourself to the geography first.”

“Southwestern Russia.”

“Right. Black Sea to the west, Caspian to the east. This shot is just north of the Caucasus from Sochi to Grozny. You can also see part of the eastern shore of the Caspian in Kazakhstan.”

“I’m oriented,” Olivia said.

“Okay, now I’m going in for a tight shot—the highway between Grozny and Makhachkala.”

Casini manipulated the mouse, and the image on the big screen dissolved, reconstituted, then sharpened.

“T-14 tanks, APCs, trucks, self-propelled Msta-Ss, and troops,” Olivia said, puzzled. “Lots and lots of them. I’d say two divisions at least. I haven’t heard anything about this. Does DIA know?”

“This is from just a few hours ago. I went back in time to see when the movement began, but we don’t have any recent images. If I had to guess, I’d say this all happened in the last forty-eight hours. And that’s not all…”

Casini manipulated the mouse again. “This is a closer shot of the northeastern shore of the Caspian. Kazakhstan.”

“Are those Russian troops?”

“See for yourself.” A closer shot appeared.

“Another division,” Olivia said, confusion in her voice. “Russians in Kazakhstan?”

“They’re moving south.”

“Toward Syria?”

“Nope,” Casini said. “They’re too far east. If the western division continues in the present direction, they’ll go through Georgia, and then Azerbaijan, to Iran. The eastern division will go through Kazakhstan, then Turkmenistan, to Iran.”

Olivia stared at the screen, her brow furrowed. The puzzle still was missing several pieces.

“Laura, do you have any shots of the area south of Saint Petersburg?”

“I know what you’re thinking, and we do.”

The screen showed troops and equipment near Estonia and Latvia.

“At least three tank battalions from the Western Military District within miles of the Latvian border. Two more with lots of artillery near Estonia,” Olivia observed. “In total that’s far more than we’ve seen in recent maneuvers. They could easily overwhelm NATO forces. We have Abrams tanks and Bradleys at Grafenwoehr. But by the time we could deploy them the game would already be over.”

“They’re not moving at all, though,” Casini said. “They seem to just be parked there. No activity.”

“They don’t have to be moving to be concerning. Within hours of getting the order from Mikhailov, they’d be halfway inside the Baltics,” Olivia explained. “What really concerns me are the divisions near the Caspian. They are moving. And their movement is, frankly, incomprehensible.”

“What’s incomprehensible about it?”

“The Russians know that, eventually, we’d notice these buildups, these movements. You don’t need KH-13 to see that. Concentrations of troops and matériel of this size are going to be spotted in the ordinary course,” Olivia explained. “And given everything that’s happened in the last month, they know NATO would read them the riot act if there was any inkling that mischief was afoot.

“But apparently, that doesn’t bother them. They’re massing and moving as if they’re unconcerned about NATO reaction, like these exercises are completely innocent and nonthreatening. And like we know they’re innocent and so we aren’t going to react.”

“Aren’t they?” Casini asked. “I mean, after the failed EMP operation, they wouldn’t provoke another crisis, right?”

Olivia examined the screens for several seconds in silence.

“You’re not going to disappear again on me, are you, Olivia? That was rude.”

“Laura, do you have images from Baltiysk and Kronshtadt?”

“The Baltic Fleet.” Casini nodded matter-of-factly.

Seconds later the split-screen images of naval bases appeared. The two women studied the screen for anomalies.

“I don’t see anything out of the ordinary,” Olivia said tentatively.

“That’s because you’re not a super-sharp-eyed spy-satellite sleuth,” Casini countered. “There’s absolutely no sign of the Nakhimov Missile Ship Brigade.”

“Are you sure?”

“Your job is analysis. My job is surveillance.”

“Do you see anything else missing?” Olivia asked.

“Not immediately.”

“Laura, I need you to examine any and all available satellite surveillance of Russian naval bases in the near abroad.” Olivia paused. “No, make that Russian military bases in the near abroad, especially Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan—and let me know what you find.”

“What do you expect me to find?”

“Nothing out of the ordinary,” Olivia replied. “I hope.”