Shattered Trident

9. TIDINGS

31 August 2016

0700 Eastern Daylight Time

CNN Headline News

The two anchors on the CNN morning broadcast did their best to look grim. Happy faces were not appropriate to the news. “War has broken out off the coast of China, although so far a one-sided war, and a secret one.”

The image on the screen was frightening, but fascinating. “This was the Chinese-owned and -flagged tanker Hai Tun Zuo, en route from the Persian Gulf to Shanghai, loaded with over half a million barrels of crude oil.” The massive vessel, broken in two, listed drunkenly on the ocean’s surface. The two parts of the ship were enveloped by flames, fed by a dark black slick that spread out hundreds of meters. The bow and stern were elevated as the torn midsections took on water, exposing the red lower hull. The white upperworks on both parts were scorched and stained. Rescue ships stood off upwind from the oily black smoke that half-hid the shattered vessel.

“At a little before dawn local time, Hai Tun Zuo suffered a disastrous explosion, leaving her on fire and sinking. Normally, a disaster like this would have to be investigated and its cause determined, but this was not an isolated incident.”

A map replaced the burning tanker, with a flickering point of fire marking the ship’s location to the west of Hainan Island. The map then began to fill with other points of flame.

“In the past forty hours, over a dozen merchant ships, all Chinese tankers loaded with oil, have suffered deadly explosions, dotting the ocean with desperate calls for help. Naval experts all agree that someone has begun torpedoing Chinese tankers.”

The image shifted to show a white-painted rescue vessel with a red band angled across the bow and Chinese characters along the side. “China’s Maritime Safety Agency, responsible for search and rescue at sea, has mobilized its entire force to respond to the distressed vessels, any one of which is a major disaster. The Border Guard, a separate Chinese paramilitary force, is also assisting, as well as hurrying to the defense of other Chinese vessels.

“Other merchants have approached the distressed vessels and offered what aid they could, but the wrecked ships are often on fire, and many of the survivors require more medical care than the civilian ships can provide. In all the attacks so far, at least seventy merchant sailors are known to be dead or missing, with twice that many injured.”

Images of stretchers being carried away from a helicopter were replaced by a seated Chinese official, flanked by military officers. Chinese characters scrolled across the bottom of the screen. “Officials in Beijing have condemned the sinkings as ‘terrorism,’ but have refused to identify their attackers, or explain this refusal. The Chinese ambassador at the UN also declined to comment, and would not speculate on possible Chinese actions. The only conceivable reason for not naming the perpetrators of the sinkings is because the Chinese do not know who they are.

“Insurance rates are already rising, although so far only for ships headed for the new war zone. And within the last hour, Lloyd’s has announced it will no longer issue insurance for Chinese-owned or -flagged ships.

“The belligerents’ goal is obvious: to starve the world’s largest nation and fastest-growing economy of oil. Rumors of other measures, including cyber attacks against Chinese interests and sabotage of Chinese refineries, are circulating, but have not been confirmed.”

The Lloyd’s of London logo was replaced by shots of Chinese warships steaming in formation. “Although called ‘terrorism’ by the Chinese, no known terrorist group has the resources to operate even a single submarine, and naval experts agree that an attack on this scale would require several vessels. The U.S. Navy refused to speculate on the identity of the mystery subs, and categorically denied making any attacks. They would neither confirm nor deny the presence of U.S. submarines in the South China Sea. The White House is preparing a statement for release later in the day.”

The picture shifted back to the stricken tanker. “In the case of Hai Tun Zuo, the crew was able to send a distress call, and because her emergency beacon was activated, rescuers were able to arrive relatively quickly.” The camera panned over to a helicopter hovering while a sling was lowered to a bright orange lifeboat.

“Most of the twenty-three-man crew were rescued, but three are known dead and another five are still missing. Pushed by the prevailing winds and ocean currents, the slick is expected to arrive at the Leizhou Peninsula in a day or two.

“As of this morning, the Chinese are losing a war with a phantom submarine fleet. It remains to be seen if they can stop or even identify their enemy. Please stay tuned for further developments in this fast-moving crisis. A list of all the vessels attacked is available at our Web site.”

31 August 2016

0900 Local Time

By Water

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Mac had split off everything about the sinkings onto a new daughter blog. He’d also shelved all his projects in a desperate effort to keep up with the insane amount of traffic. It wasn’t the news of the sinkings themselves. There’d been eleven in the past twenty-four hours, and after the first three, he’d set up an online database to display what was reliably known: location, identity, casualties, and so forth.

He’d been very careful to post only official information, and that only after he’d thoroughly reviewed it. The Chinese government wasn’t obligated to tell the truth, after all.

War had not been declared, but truth had already become a casualty. His notoriety in the naval community was now working against him, as would-be contributors inundated him with rumors. Most were disappointed when they found out that their data was old, inaccurate, or just plain wrong, but they accepted it. Others were convinced of their information’s accuracy, gleaned from some “inside source” or “inspired deduction.” Those individuals would not take no for an answer, and accused him of being narrow-minded or biased, except for one person who accused him of being in the pay of the Chinese! Mac loved a good exchange of information via e-mails. These were nothing like a good exchange.

But he wouldn’t stop reading and answering his mail. There’d been a few gems. Reports of a fire at a Chinese shipyard had been confirmed indirectly by the local media. His correspondent at Lloyd’s had allowed him to break the news about suspending insurance on Chinese tankers. Christine had appreciated his phone call on that one, although she’d acquired the same information only moments after he did.

Now he was calling her again. She’d given him her cell number, because she was so rarely in her office. “Mac!” She sounded rushed, but also pleased. “What news by the water?” she joked.

“It’s about Vinaship Sea.”

“That’s last week, Mac.” She sounded a little disappointed. “Have you seen the news today?”

“I won’t dignify that with an answer,” he huffed, but both knew he was joking. “There is a connection, Christine.”

“What? I may not be an expert, but Vinaship Sea was Vietnamese, and it wasn’t a tanker.”

“Bear with me for a moment.” Mac spoke quickly. “I’ve had several correspondents in Asia tell me about information that’s being leaked on Chinese blogs and Web sites, probably by a government office or the intelligence service. It claims to be a list of Vinaship Sea’s actual cargo—a surface-to-air missile battery, anti-aircraft guns, and ammunition, all destined for the Spratly Island chain.”

“That would explain the large explosion!” she remarked, almost happily.

“That part fits, but more important than that is her destination,” Mac explained. “I’ve plotted her course based on the new information, and it matches the location where she was sunk perfectly. The Vietnamese lied about her destination, and even filed false position reports. So if she was torpedoed, it had to be by someone who knew her true position.”

“And the Chinese knew,” she concluded. “Doesn’t this mean the Chinese are saying they sank the ship?”

“Indirectly, yes. The Spratly Islands are contested by Vietnam and China, among others. If Vietnam was secretly moving arms to the area, China may have decided to stop them just as secretly. And now they want other people to know.”

“So the tanker sinkings are payback by Vietnam?” She sounded skeptical. “That’s a lot of revenge for losing one ship.”

“And it’s also a lot more ships than the Vietnamese Navy could possibly sink. They only have three diesel-electric submarines. We did the math. You need a lot more than three.”

“So probably the Vietnamese and almost certainly some other navy are trying to damage China’s economy by sinking tankers.” She paused, then said, “That’s not a real strong headline.”

“It’s more than you knew five minutes ago,” he countered. “How about, ‘A Secret International Conspiracy, Aligned Against China’?”

“That sounds much better. I’ll have to rush, but we can probably get this into the next hourly feed. Please send me what you’ve got. And I’ll make sure your name gets mentioned.”

He pressed a key. “You have it.”

31 August 2016

1155 Local Time

Pentagon City Metro Station

Arlington, Virginia

Senator Lowell Hardy stepped off the Yellow Line Metro train at the Pentagon City station and reluctantly took the escalator up to the street level. The thick heat of Washington in August poured down the angled steps, and Hardy took strength in the restaurant being close—just across the street and four blocks down.

He hadn’t picked Siné Irish Pub, although it was a good place to meet. Good faux-Irish food and decent Irish beer. Not too noisy to have a conversation, or too quiet to stand out.

He suppressed the last thought, but it was a mysterious message, after all. A fellow submariner and a friend of Jerry Mitchell’s wanted to meet. The matter was extremely urgent, and he had suggested noon at Siné. He hadn’t left a name, or number where he could be reached. Hardy wondered if he’d pick up the tab.

The message hadn’t mentioned red carnations, so Hardy had simply walked in, expecting to be met. Nobody came up to greet him, but there was a short line waiting to be seated, and he joined it. When it was his turn, he asked, “Reservation for Hardy, twelve o’clock?”

“Yes, sir,” the hostess answered brightly. “Your other party has already been seated.”

Hardy followed her to a booth, where a single man waited. In his late forties, maybe early fifties, Hardy judged, the stranger was fit, blond, with a broad round face that screamed “Russian!” He was wearing jeans and a polo shirt, but on him the clothes looked like a disguise. Hardy started to feel uneasy, but it was too late to back out now.

The hostess left, and the stranger offered his hand. Hardy took it automatically while the other man introduced himself, “Senator Lowell Hardy, I am Aleksey Igorevich Petrov,” in slightly accented English. “Thank you for coming.”

They both sat down, Hardy’s mind whirling. He’d been in Washington long enough to know that not all spy stories were fiction, but a meeting, out of the blue, with a Russian? The message said, “a former submariner.” And the name “Petrov” jarred old memories. And he was a friend of Jerry Mitchell.

Petrov had sat silently for the moment it took for Hardy to recognize the name. The senator finally said, “The captain of Severodvinsk?”

The Russian nodded solemnly. “Former captain, yes. On her first and only voyage. You and I have never met, but Jerry has spoken of you many times. He and I keep in touch by e-mail, and he was very proud when you were elected a senator. And now Jerry has his own command.”

“Yes, I was at the change of command ceremony when he took over.”

“He will make a good captain.” Petrov smiled. “Not that I am qualified to make such a judgment.”

“Jerry said the Russian Navy let you retire without punishment,” Hardy offered.

“Losing my command and eighteen of my crew was punishment enough,” Petrov replied softly. “I and the rest of the survivors will always be grateful to Captain Rudel, Jerry, and the rest of Seawolf’s crew.” Although he smiled, the lines around his eyes showed his melancholy.

Petrov shook off the mood and straightened a little. “I have stayed close to the navy and submarines since I retired. I am now a naval constructor at the Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard in St. Petersburg. My government knows about my friends in the U.S. Navy, and when they offered me this task, I accepted gladly. I have a message. It is not an official communication, but this meeting has been approved by the highest levels of my government.”

Hardy had already decided to take Petrov at his word. Jerry had said good things about the guy. He’d trust Jerry’s judgment, but Hardy chose his words carefully. “Is there something that your Foreign Ministry doesn’t want to say to the State Department?”

Petrov didn’t have a chance to answer. The hostess appeared, and Hardy distractedly ordered a burger and iced tea.

As soon as she left, Petrov explained, “This is not a matter for either the Foreign Ministry or the State Department. It is best if they do not learn of it. In fact, it involves information we obtained from within the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.”

Hardy couldn’t hide his expression, and Petrov paused for a moment, almost apologetically. “You can understand that we would not normally share this type of information with you, but in this urgent matter our interests coincide.”

What could be so important, Hardy wondered. Then he remembered the morning’s headlines. “Does this concern…” he paused, “the waters around China?”

Petrov leaned forward slightly and spoke softly but clearly. “Japan, South Korea, India, and Vietnam have entered into a secret military alliance to cripple China’s economy. They are using their submarines to sink Chinese merchant ships, and the Chinese Navy if they get in the way.”

Hardy had been about to sip his iced tea. Thankfully, Petrov’s bombshell had reached him before that happened. He quickly set the glass down as the possibilities swirled around him. “Nice. As long as they conceal themselves, the Chinese won’t know who to strike back at.”

“Correct,” Petrov answered. “And if they do, Japan and South Korea are U.S. allies, and your country must come to their defense. They can’t stay hidden forever, but if they can do it for long enough, they can cause tremendous damage.”

“Did this source mention why Vietnam and the others are doing this?”

The Russian shook his head. “I asked the same question. The information only refers to an ‘imminent Chinese threat.’ They may believe that if they don’t fight China now, they will have to later, when China is even stronger and they have no other option.” He smiled. “They also don’t have a very high opinion of America’s willingness to confront China.”

Hardy didn’t react to the last part. “When they do find out, China’s going to get really mad,” Hardy remarked, then caught himself. He wasn’t discussing the day’s headlines with a friend at lunch. This man was the unofficial and secret envoy of a foreign power. “I’m assuming you are confident of the information’s reliability.”

Petrov nodded silently.

“You know that immediately following this meeting, I’m going to give this information to my government’s intelligence service.”

“We’d rather it was passed directly to your decision-makers. That’s what your CIA would, or should do with it anyway. I believe your wife, Dr. Patterson, works closely with the national security adviser. We met, once, after the inquest was over. Please give her my regards.”

“I’ll consider your suggestion, but I make no promises,” Hardy answered. “I also can’t promise where the information will go once I’ve passed it on.”

“To your president, I hope,” Petrov replied, “and I ask for no conditions. But we believe the information is true. It is also in our best interest to convey this to your leadership. We have a long border with China. ‘If your neighbor’s house is on fire, you must look to your own property.’”

“Is that a Russian proverb?” Hardy asked.

“Chinese, actually.”

Hardy laughed, but agreed with the sentiment. Russia couldn’t be seen openly helping the United States, hence the covert nature of the communication.

“Is there anything you can offer that corroborates this information?”

Petrov looked puzzled for a moment, but then said, “If you mean some visible proof, watch the reactions of the Japanese, Vietnamese, and South Koreans in the next few days. They will react quickly and effectively, because they knew about this ahead of time, and similarly because they are sharing information.

“Also, I must apologize. I was chosen because of my personal contacts within the American Navy. My first choice was Captain Rudel, but he’s retired now. Evidently, he’s a history teacher in Ohio.”

Hardy nodded and laughed. “Tom wanted something a little less stressful. Somehow, I don’t know if a room full of high school kids qualifies. He also runs their NJROTC program at the school.”

“I am disappointed that I did not have the opportunity see him. If you are in contact with him, please give him my greatest respects and good wishes, likewise to Commander Mitchell. I know North Dakota is based in Hawaii. Since he was not available, Dr. Patterson or you were our next choice. I gather your wife has been very busy lately. I could not reach her.”

Hardy didn’t explain what Joanna was involved with. “I’m not offended, Captain. I’m glad to be on the same list with them.”

“Good. One other thing.” He held up a hardcover book. “With the Pacific so much in the news lately, I found this at Heathrow Airport while I was making the connection to come here.” He slid the volume across to Hardy. The cover appeared dark blue from a distance, but close up he could see it was actually a map of Asia and the Pacific. The title, in gold letters, was Navies for Asia, by Sajin Komamura.

Petrov said, “I read it on the flight, and it’s very informative.”

31 August 2016

1415 Local Time

The White House

Washington, D.C.

They waited in Kirkpatrick’s office.

“You had lunch at Siné and didn’t invite me?” Joanna looked angry and hurt. Hardy wasn’t sure whether she was serious or not. Better to play it straight.

“I couldn’t invite you. Besides, weren’t you busy here?” Hardy protested.

“Yes, and I had my usual turkey sandwich. I’m getting too many of my meals from the White House food service.” She sounded unhappy. “You could have called and asked, and I could have turned you down.”

“I had no idea what the meeting was about—none at all. I certainly didn’t imagine Alex Petrov was going to be there.”

“It would have been wonderful to see him again.”

“The idea was to keep a low profile. You would have made a fuss and hugged him, just like with Jerry.”

“You heard about that?” She sounded surprised. “At the squadron briefing? On Guam?”

“It’s a small community. Word gets around,” he said casually.

She shrugged. “I admit it. I’m a hugger.”

“And it’s one of your many virtues.”

Ray Kirkpatrick ducked his head in the door. “The president’s ready for you.”

It was only a short distance, but they still hurried. Hardy tried to keep his focus. This wasn’t his first trip to the Oval Office, but it wasn’t what he’d planned for the afternoon. The air seemed a little thin—at least that was one explanation for his light-headedness.

The president’s office was crowded. In addition to Myles and Milt Alvarez, the secretary of state, Andy Lloyd, and the director of national intelligence, Greg Alexander, were also waiting. Neither looked happy.

Myles met them almost as they came in the door. “Joanna, Senator Hardy… Lowell,” he corrected himself, while shaking their hands. “You’ve performed yet another valuable service.”

“The Russians contacted me, Mr. President. I can’t take credit for this.”

“But you carried the ball perfectly when they passed it to you. Please, have a seat.” Myles gestured to the two couches in the center of the room. Myles and Hardy shared one couch, while Alexander and Patterson sat across from them. There was plenty of room for Lloyd, but he remained standing. He looked like he wanted to pace, but was fighting it.

Alexander said, “The folks at CIA are still going through the CD that was tucked into the book he gave you, as well as examining the book itself. The disc has a series of reports from the source Petrov mentioned. It matches the story he told you, and we now have a name: the ‘Littoral Alliance.’ Plus we get a little bit of their timeline, but not much about the ‘imminent threat’ they’re so concerned about.”

“Imminent implies near-term, does it not? What, if anything, are the Chinese doing that could have all these nations so spooked?” Myles asked.

“If that’s even the correct word,” Lloyd grumbled. “The reports are in Russian, but apparently were translated originally from Japanese, and now into English.”

Alexander ignored the SecState’s comment and answered Myles’s question. “The only thing the Chinese are doing in the near term that we’re aware of is the large exercise in the South China Sea, and we already knew the Vietnamese were concerned enough about it to mine the Chinese carrier.”

Kirkpatrick volunteered a different definition. “A better word might be ‘alarmed,’ Mr. President. And whatever Vietnam knew has now convinced three other countries to join them in a covert war.”

“We’ll do our best to find out if there’s something going on besides the exercise,” Alexander assured them. “There’s always the possibility that it was being used as a distraction or cover.”

“Andy, do you have any questions for the senator?” inquired Myles.

Lloyd shook his head quickly. “No, sir, I don’t, and thank you for your service this afternoon, Senator.”

As Hardy nodded his acknowledgement, Lloyd continued. “To me, this is a logical move for the Russians. Like us, the last thing they need is China at war. If things got bad in China, the refugee problem alone could be disastrous for Russia.

“We have more influence in the region, with Japan and South Korea as formal allies, and our security arrangements with Taiwan. With this warning, we can work to limit the crisis and position ourselves to keep our people safe, and limit our own involvement.”

“Is that your recommendation, Andy?” asked the president.

“Boiled down to the basics, yes, sir. My staff is still drawing up our formal recommendations, but that’s what my experience says. Wars always last longer than the people who start them think they will, and the longer a war lasts, the more it spreads. What if North Korea tries to take advantage of the situation? Can Taiwan stay out of it even if it wants to? And what about the strains of a war on the Chinese economy? We know it’s fragile, and this ‘Littoral Alliance’ is chipping away at the supports.”

Myles held up his hands. “Too many questions, too little information. This meeting is about the Russians’ message, as delivered by the honorable senator from Connecticut.”

He turned to Hardy. “Given the nature of this message, I think we all would have liked to speak to the messenger ourselves. Still, I’m satisfied the Russians have provided information that they believe is true.” He stood, and the others did as well. Myles shook Hardy’s hand again. “Lowell, know you’ve got a friend here if you need one.”

“Thank you, sir. One quick question.” He turned slightly to face Greg Alexander. “Do you think the CIA’s lab is done with the book yet?”

Alexander was surprised for a moment, then answered, “Of course. It was a gift from Alex Petrov. I’ll make sure the lab doesn’t mangle it, but it will take a few more days before they’re done. Is that all right?”

“Yes, sir. But I wanted to read it as well.”

“You should probably get another copy, then,” replied Alexander, smiling.

Myles said, “Joanna, can you come back right away, please? We have more to discuss.”

Taking the hint, she left with her husband while the others sat down again.

Myles waited for the door to close before asking Alexander, “What’s Petrov doing now?”

The DNI glanced at his watch. “It’s been a little over two hours since we received Hardy’s report. Petrov arrived in the U.S. this morning at Dulles airport with a diplomatic visa. We’ve made a quiet search of the Crystal City area without spotting him. He has not visited the embassy, and is scheduled to fly out this evening from Dulles at 9:45. Did you want to question him further? We can detain him there, if you wish.”

“Detain him? Are you nuts?” Myles exclaimed. “No, just the opposite. Get someone to Dulles and make sure Petrov has no issues getting to his flight. No TSA screw-ups, no random searches. I owe that guy a steak dinner. The least we can do is make sure he makes his flight home.”

Patterson returned within minutes, carrying an armful of documents. She handed them to Kirkpatrick while she slipped into her chair. As he started to skim them, he said, “Go ahead, Joanna.”

“All the armed forces in the region have gone to heightened states of readiness. No surprise there. It’s the logical move. There’s no general pattern that we can point to, but specific incidents do support the Russians’ claim. They’ve held air-raid drills in Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan.

“All available Aegis ships in the Japanese and South Korean navies are at sea, with heavy escort. They are taking positions to protect those countries from ballistic missile and air attacks originating from Mainland China.

“Vietnam has reinforced its border with China, and ELINT shows that some of their best air-defense units have been deployed there as well.

“As far as we can tell, there’s been no unusual military activity by India.”

Lloyd remarked, “Keeping a low profile, no doubt. And submarines?”

She sighed. “A lot of their subs are missing from their home ports, more than enough for a campaign against China. But countries do their best to hide sub movements, even in peacetime. Nobody can be ruled out, or in, based on that criterion alone.”

“No smoking torpedo tube, then.” Myles’s frustration was clear. “Andy, has there been word from any of these four governments, or China for that matter?”

“The Chinese are still keeping mum. All of the countries in the region have issued the usual statements about ‘preparing a response to this grave situation.’ Usually that means they don’t have a clue what’s going on, except now we know that four of them know damn well what’s happening!”

“If we act on our knowledge of this ‘Littoral Alliance,’ won’t we risk tipping our hand to China? We know what’s going to happen when they find out who’s behind the attacks,” cautioned Patterson.

Ray Kirkpatrick replied guardedly, “We won’t be giving that much away. China must have suspicions, including Vietnam, of course. And reports are circulating in the media now about an ‘international conspiracy’ behind the attacks, and naming Vietnam as one of the actors.”

“All right, then.” Myles sounded almost relieved. “Let’s try the front door. Andy, draft a note to the four countries involved, asking what they know about the sinkings. Make sure it says that we’re only asking those four countries.”

“A formal first-person note?” Lloyd confirmed.

“For my signature,” Myles replied. “Nothing public, of course. We’ll just ask them flat out.”

“And when they lie and say they don’t know?” Lloyd asked.

“They won’t. They can’t stay hidden from China forever. Asking only those four makes it clear we’ve got some idea of what’s going on. What we need from them is why this is happening. Andy, your job is to come up with ways to keep this from turning into an open war.”

“Oh, I thought it was going to be something hard.”

Myles laughed along with the rest, but warned, “If China directly attacks Japan or South Korea, the U.S. is compelled to respond. If that happens, it’s out of our control and nobody can predict how far this will go, or who lives and who dies.”