Shattered Trident

21. PARTICIPATION

9 September 2016

0915 Local Time

By Water

Halifax, Nova Scotia

The phone rang, and the only reason he answered was because it was Christine.

“Mac, I’m sending you a file I’ve received about the Battle at Spratly Island. I’d like you to look at it and tell me if the information is worthwhile.”

“What kind of information is it?” he asked. Christine had proven to be a sharp reporter and a fast learner. If she thought it was worth looking at, he’d take the time.

“Detailed. You’ll probably understand it better than me. I’m sending it now. You’ll have it in a few moments.”

“Fine,” Mac replied. “Who’s it from?”

“I can’t tell you, and for the moment, don’t send the file to anyone else.”

Now he was curious. “Seriously? I can’t use it on my blog?”

“Look at it first, then please, call me back.”

After promising to call, Mac hung up and checked his e-mail inbox. He found the file, downloaded and opened it.

His first impression was of a patchwork of blocks of text, then names and terms started to pop out at him. “DRAGON EYE” and “PLANK SHAVE” were NATO code names for Chinese- and Russian-built radars. One missile was described as the “CSS-N-8 SACCADE.” That was the NATO designation for the Chinese YJ-83, and was linked to a “seeker activation” time. In fact, he realized most of the document was a timeline listing when different radars had been detected and then when the signal was lost, correlating the radar types with different ships, like “LANZHOU” and “YULIN.” The only time he’d ever seen names in all caps like that was in U.S. Department of Defense handouts…

9 September 2016

0920 Local Time

CNN New York Bureau

Time Warner Center, New York

Chris Laird snagged the phone on the first ring. “That was four and a half minutes,” she observed, smiling.

“Where did you get this?” Mac demanded.

“Mac, I said, I can’t tell you.”

“This looks official.”

“Exactly how official?” she asked.

Mac sighed. “I’m not a military expert, but I know that the U.S. has planes that can eavesdrop on foreign radar and radio signals. This file is an electronic record of the battle, and looks like exactly the type of things those aircraft would do. It lists Chinese and Vietnamese ships that took part in the battle by name, even the weapons they fired at each other. I’m not sure that the two combatants have such a complete picture.”

“And it matches what you’ve received from other sources?”

“It’s more like, ‘Does my other data match this?’ and the answer is yes.”

She relaxed a little. For whatever reason, Hardy was giving her good stuff—maybe very good. “Okay, then. Mac, let’s go ahead and work on a joint piece, something you can post on your blog and I can use as well.” She checked her watch. “We can aim for the noon feed.”

“I need to talk to your source.”

“Absolutely not!” she said. “They made it very clear that they’d speak only to me.”

“Christine, this smells like halibut a few days after the refrigeration fails. Why are they giving us this information?”

“The source hinted there might be more stuff after this.”

“More?” Mac’s voice was rising, and Christine could hear him pause and take a breath. “All right. Think it through. This type of information is normally highly classified. Someone with access to classified data is giving it to you. Wouldn’t you like to know why?”

“I remember some Chinese proverb about gift horses. We are at no risk. We do not have clearances, so we’re under no obligation to keep it secret,” retorted Christine.

“That’s the reporter in you,” Mac replied. “And I feel the same way. But I don’t want my blog turned into some sort of tool for someone with an ax to grind. I’ve heard too many horror stories. Let me speak to him or her and clear up a few questions. Otherwise, you can do what you want, but I will not partake of the mysterious fruit.”

“All right,” Laird conceded reluctantly. “I’ll have to call them, and then they’ll call you. Stay close to your phone.”

9 September 2016

0930 Local Time

By Water

Nova Scotia, Halifax

The caller ID read as UNAVAILABLE, but Mac grabbed the phone. This wasn’t a telemarketer. “This is McMurtrie.”

“Mr. McMurtrie, I understand you’re reviewing the information I sent to Ms. Laird.” The voice was male, strong, and the speaker was probably not a young man. Mac couldn’t tell anything more than that. It wasn’t being electronically altered, as far as he could tell, but anything was possible.

“It’s very impressive, and I should thank you for your generosity. But I’m concerned about your motives.”

“I don’t suppose you’d be satisfied with my desire to support your blog? I am a fan, by the way. You’ve done a lot of good work.”

“Thank you,” Mac replied automatically, “but this information comes from within the U.S. government, and was or is classified.”

“Was,” the voice replied. “I’m not breaking any laws, and neither are you by publishing it.”

“That’s a relief. I don’t want to appear as a witness at your trial, whoever you are, thank you very much. I’ll take you at your word that’s it’s an ‘authorized,’ if unconventional, release of sensitive information. Will you also guarantee that this is not fabricated or altered?” pushed Mac.

“This and anything else I send you will be factual to the best of my ability.”

“Anything else? There’s more?” Mac tried to suppress his excitement and failed completely.

“Yes, there is. For example, your theory about the loss of Vinaship Sea is correct. She was sunk by two Yu-6 torpedoes fired by a Chinese Shang-class SSN. That’s the NATO designation. The Chinese call it the Type 093 class.”

Migod! Mac felt amazement mixed with satisfaction. And he reads my blog.

The voice continued, “This touches on my purpose, and I’ll share some of that with you. There’s a lot of misinformation about the war out there. Most is noise, but some is harmful; for example, the staying power of the Chinese. People with bad information make bad decisions. A poorly informed public might demand that their politicians do the wrong thing.”

“How does information on the Battle of Spratly Island correct that?”

“It doesn’t, but it shows you and Ms. Laird that I can provide something of worth, and when you post it, enhances your blog’s reputation as a valuable source of information. First we will get their attention, then tell them what they need to know.”

“I’m not a U.S. citizen, but I’m no enemy of America, either. Do you promise that this information is not meant to harm U.S. interests?”

“For what it’s worth, I can promise, absolutely, that the information I give you is meant to advance U.S. interests. In this case, that includes ending the ‘Great Pacific War,’ as you call it, as quickly as possible. I’m sure Hector would be honored.” Mac smiled at the reference to his personal hero.

“I’ll even answer questions, within reasonable limits.”

Mac felt a small thrill, remembering what he’d already been given. But he couldn’t pass up the opportunity. He mentally ran down the popular topics on the blog forums. “A lot of people are asking about Liaoning, the Chinese carrier. She hasn’t left harbor since an engineering casualty on August eleventh. Can you tell me her current status?”

“That’s a very good question, Mac. I’ll see what I can do. It’s been a pleasure, but I don’t expect I’ll speak to you again, at least not for the foreseeable future. You can pass any future questions through Ms. Laird. I enjoy reading your blog. Keep up the good work.”

Whoever it was broke the connection before Mac could thank him or say good-bye.

9 September 2016

1200 Eastern Daylight Time

CNN Headline News

“This is CNN breaking news. In a massive series of predawn airstrikes, Indian air force planes attacked Pakistani air bases, ports, and army installations. At the same time, reports from crossings in the northern and southern border areas with India have described sharp fights between Pakistani border police and Indian regular army units. It’s clear the Indian Army is crossing the border in strength, but the Indian government has only released this short statement.”

The anchor was replaced by the recorded image of an Indian Air Force major, reading a prepared statement. “The Indian armed forces have begun a series of defensive operations designed to protect Indian territory from further outrages like the Pakistani-sponsored assault on our navy base at Visakhapatnam. Our intelligence has information that even more vicious raids are being planned, so we have taken this action to protect our homeland.”

A map of southwest Asia appeared, and the anchor explained, “India has declared the entire coast of Pakistan to be a war zone, and that ships of any country in those waters risk being sunk without warning. An official Notice to Mariners was filed by India a little over two hours ago saying that the ports of Karachi and Gwadar are mined. A similar Notice to Airmen covers commercial flights to Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi, stating an aircraft using the fields may be shot down.”

The anchor’s image returned. “The only response from the Pakistani government has been to condemn the Indian attack and promise to repel ‘every invader from our holy ground by all necessary means.’”

“In another breaking development, CNN journalist Christine Laird has provided a new, more complete description of the Battle of Spratly Island.” An image appeared, of the now-famous photograph of a shattered Vietnamese missile boat. It had become one of the defining images of the war.

“This battle, waged four days ago between the Vietnamese and Chinese navies, is credited with stopping the Chinese advance in the South China Sea, although at high cost. According to the narrative, which is posted on the now-famous Great Pacific War of 2016 Web site, on Bywater’s Blog, the Chinese amphibious assault ship Jinggang Shan, a civilian container ship loaded with supplies, and the escorting frigate Xiangfan were all sunk by Vietnamese cruise missiles. Another warship, the guided missile destroyer Lanzhou, was crippled by a newly-revealed antagonist, which fired a different type of anti-ship missile, the ‘Yakhont,’ while the Vietnamese ships fired the ‘Uran’ missile. Both types are manufactured in Russia, but the Vietnamese ships are only fitted with Uran.

“The depth of the analysis on Bywater’s Blog, a privately operated Web site, has added to the reputation of its administrator, Hector McMurtrie, a naval expert and author. Sales of his most recent book, Steam Propulsion Plants of the Cunard Line Ships, have soared in the past week.

“Chinese and Vietnamese officials refused to comment on the accuracy of the information, although the Vietnamese naval spokesman did admit that he was aware of the report, since he read the blog every day.”

9 September 2016

1300 Local Time

White House Situation Room

Washington, D.C.

The ambassador’s expression was all they needed to see. They’d set up the VTC less than half an hour ago, based on the earliest time the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan could reach a secure terminal. She was hurried, almost breathless. She didn’t bother trying to look pleasant. “I just came from a meeting with the foreign minister. It’s chaos over there. This has caught them completely by surprise.”

“Us as well, unfortunately,” Kirkpatrick remarked.

“You’ll have to take that up with my counterpart in Mumbai,” Ambassador Wright snapped. “The only reason the minister would see me at all was that we already had something set up for today. We had about fifteen minutes. He shared some information, I offered moral support, and got out.

“According to the minister, there have been attacks all along the border with India, most probably diversions. They know a large column of vehicles has crossed in the north, opposite Lahore, and is driving west. They’ve also had reports of crossings in the south, but it’s so sparsely settled that they’re sending reconnaissance units to find out what’s going on.”

“What about their nuclear forces?” Patterson asked. She sounded worried, and the ambassador acknowledged her concern.

“I asked, as politely as possible, ‘If they were comfortable with the security of their nuclear forces.’ The minister said they’d been on heightened alert since India’s affiliation with the Littoral Alliance was revealed, and have been dispersed to safe locations.”

Wright added, “The minister made a point of telling me that no nuclear-weapons-related sites have been struck so far. Air bases, vehicle parks, road junctions in the north and south have all been hit hard. Based on what he was the most angry about, their air force has especially suffered. Our attaché in Karachi also reported a frigate in the harbor was sunk at the pier by precision-guided bombs.”

“But no nuke missile sites,” Kirkpatrick observed. “They don’t want to give the Pakistanis a reason to launch.”

“How about invading their country? Doesn’t that count as a sufficient reason?” Patterson countered.

Wright, listening to the conversation, shook her head sharply. “No, Doctor, the Pakistanis won’t launch unless the situation is dire. They can hurt India, of course, but India can destroy Pakistan as a modern nation. They only have three cities with populations over a million, with most of the educated population and almost all the commercial, scientific, and military infrastructure. For Islamabad, it’s virtually a doomsday option. Frankly, they depended more on Chinese support to deter a conventional invasion.”

“And the Chinese have their own problems right now,” Kirkpatrick completed. “What’s your assessment of the military situation?”

“If you mean what my attachés think, they unanimously agree that the Pakistani armed forces have been completely surprised and are reacting poorly. My attachés were just as surprised. Everyone assumed India was involved with the war in the South China Sea, and most of the Pakistani intelligence assets have been tied up with supporting the Chinese.”

“Including the terror attacks.”

“Entirely true, sir. Excuse me, but I have things I must attend to,” Wright said, a little impatiently. “Do you or the president have any special instructions?”

“None beyond safeguarding U.S. citizens and keeping us informed.”

“With the ports and airfields at risk, the land routes to Afghanistan are the safest option left. We’re getting our people moved here and to Quetta, and then across the border to Kabul and Kandahar. All the civilian flights that usually land in Pakistan are using those airports as well.”

“Good luck, Madam Ambassador. We’ll talk again at…” Kirkpatrick glanced at the clock. “0500, your time.”

“We’ll be here,” she responded, trying to sound positive.

10 September 2016

2200 Local Time

Littoral Alliance Headquarters

Okutama, Nishitama District

Tokyo, Japan

Miyazaki found him sitting in one corner of his office on a cushion. “Sensei, Admiral Orihara is here. He has arrived.”

Komamura started, as if waking from sleep, and looked at the clock. “Oh no! It’s ten o’clock already?”

“Yes, sir. Minister Hisagi was there to greet him, and will bring him here after the admiral has greeted the other members of the working group.” She sounded a little impatient.

“I will have to apologize to the admiral. I have been disrespectful. I should have been there, too.”

“You were missed, sensei, but I told them you were very fatigued.”

He smiled, and bowed slightly toward her. “Nodoka-chan, you are a great help to me. And may I compliment you on your appearance?” She blushed, but his remark was accurate. She’d replaced her customary tracksuit with a skirt and blouse more appropriate to the occasion.

A knock at the door made them both turn to see Minister Hisagi with an unfamiliar officer in his dress blue uniform. Steadied slightly by Miyazaki, Komamura quickly rose.

Hisagi said, “Dr. Komamura, may I present Vice Admiral Orihara Izaya, Japan’s new military representative to the Littoral Alliance working group.”

The professor thought he was much younger than Kubo, maybe in his late forties, and taller, although that wasn’t a challenge, but he still wasn’t as tall as Komamura. His hair had hardly any gray…

Komamura realized he’d been silent too long, and bowed. “It is a pleasure to meet you. I am in your hands.”

Orihara returned Komamura’s greeting, bowing deeply. “It is an honor to meet you, sensei. I look forward to working hard together.” As he straightened, the admiral noticed the small shrine in the corner of his office, near where Komamura had been sitting.

A small table against the wall held a portrait of Admiral Kubo Noriaki bordered in black. It was flanked by incense holders, and different items had been placed in front of the photo: a bottle of Kirin lager beer, a set of the admiral’s shoulder boards, a referee’s fan from a sumo game, several white chrysanthemums, and a dagger, to keep away impure spirits.

A pair of small sake bottles sat on a tray next to the cushion. “I was having a drink with Admiral Kubo,” Komamura explained.

“My deepest condolences on the loss of your good friend,” said Orihara. “It is regrettable that his death must be kept from the public, at least for a time.”

Komamura nodded, grimly. “His family understands the need for security. Their sacrifice will be honored as well when he is finally given a proper funeral.”

Miyazaki had picked up the tray and turned for the door when the professor said, “Wait, please. Gentlemen, will you have a drink with the admiral and me?”

Hisagi and Orihara each took a small cup from the tray and Miyazaki filled all three cups, then added a few drops to a cup in front of Kubo’s photo.

“He died in battle, you know, as surely as if he’d been on a ship,” Hisagi remarked. “That’s what they’re saying at the ministry.”

Orihara quoted, “‘Duty is heavier than a mountain, death is lighter than a feather.’ He can rest now.”

They drank, and Miyazaki collected their cups. Komamura set his down a little unsteadily, and Hisagi and Orihara nodded to each other. After arranging to meet at breakfast tomorrow morning, and Miyazaki promising to make sure the professor got to bed, the two quickly left.

They walked in silence for some time, until they were finally in Orihara’s newly assigned quarters, and Hisagi had closed the door. The admiral said, “I had no idea he was this bad. I’d heard stories, but this…” His sentence trailed off into silence as he sat. “I feel as if we’ve lost our compass.”

Hisagi replied, “Admiral Kubo’s death would be difficult to bear under normal circumstances, but the civilian casualties from the strikes yesterday were another heavy blow. He believes that since his book inspired the alliance, he must take responsibility for them, and therefore the war. He is also uncomfortable with taking an active part in the strike planning. Sensei told me himself that every time he recommends targets, he feels like a mass murderer.”

“I was in Tokyo yesterday morning when the missiles landed,” Orihara told him. “None landed close to the ministry, but their impact was still cataclysmic. The trains and roads are all paralyzed. Only the emergency services are able to move at all. I had to use a SDF helicopter to get here.”

“And we sit here and wait, helplessly, for the next salvo,” Hisagi mused. “They’ve been ready for over a day, there’s nothing we can do but wait.”

Orihara nodded his solemn agreement. “The missile defense forces did their best, but we have all learned an important lesson, both about China’s power and our own vulnerability. After I was given my new assignment here, I met with the heads of the other services, and then the minister of defense and the prime minister. They told me that Japan is taking new steps to protect us from Chinese ballistic missiles.”

Hisagi sighed. “Then I hope they do it quickly. I can’t decide what would be worse, another strike on Tokyo or a different city.”

“It really doesn’t matter,” concluded Orihara. “We lose people regardless of the city. An interim measure has been deployed, an electronic countermeasure system, but all that will do is provide some protection to key military and civilian installations. It does nothing for the general population.

“The ministry’s estimate is that the Chinese will wait until things start moving again in Tokyo, and then hit it again. The refugee problem is unbelievable. Anyone who can leave the city is fleeing to more rural areas.” The admiral paused for a moment, then continued, “It can’t be helped. Heaven decides our fates. Let us work hard together on problems closer to us.”

“The professor,” Hisagi replied. “Yes. He is grieving, as I am, but it has been less than two days since Admiral Kubo was killed. I believe that with time, Komamura’s spirit will return.”

“Do we have the time for that?” Orihara asked. “This war changes day by day.”

“But his strategy has never wavered. That is one of his lessons. We must avoid distractions and focus our attacks on China’s greatest vulnerability. He’s trained his assistants well. Certainly we can follow sensei’s guidance for a short time without his direct supervision.”

Suddenly the new air raid siren began to wail, and both men’s cell phones buzzed—another missile attack was incoming. Orihara shook his head, a rueful grin on his face. “So much for the ministry’s estimates! Come, let’s get to the shelters.”

11 September 2016

1200 Eastern Daylight Time

CNN Headline News

“NATO ministers met again today to consider possible reactions to the worsening economic situation caused by the Pacific and now Indian-Pakistani wars. Although both conflicts are well outside the NATO charter’s area of responsibility, the economies of all NATO countries are being battered by wildly fluctuating energy prices, and shortages of all kinds, especially finished goods that are largely only available from Asia. With ever-increasing shipping losses, and the blockade of the Pacific sea lanes, global trade has all but ground to a halt. Although initially content with the role of ‘concerned observer,’ demands from European citizens, as well as business leaders, have grown to near-deafening proportions. NATO may be compelled to act. They’re just not quite sure how.

“The normally busy shipping lanes, stretching from the Cape of Good Hope east all the way past Japan, are now a war zone. While some merchant ships continue to sail east of Good Hope, they do so at great risk, and without insurance.

“The British Royal Navy and French Navy have started to move warships from the piracy patrols in Africa, and from their home bases, to the Cape of Good Hope. They plan to begin convoying nonbelligerent merchant ships safely through the war zone, but questions have been raised about what ships will be allowed to sail in the convoys. Also, what if Chinese or Littoral Alliance submarines attack the merchants being escorted? Will the warships escorting the ships be allowed to sink them?

“China has also announced that it will begin convoying ships bound for Chinese ports, but has not released any details, or whether they will be coordinating with the NATO effort.

“NATO has ruled nothing out, although direct intervention in either conflict seems unlikely. In addition to possible further sanctions against China, seen as the aggressor in that war, and against India, NATO could authorize emergency transfers of arms to the Littoral Alliance countries, except India, and Pakistan, and sharing intelligence with the Littoral Alliance and Pakistan to assist in their defense.

“Newton Thursbury, the U.S. Representative to NATO, has lobbied aggressively that any measures should be defensive only, and designed to encourage the combatants in both wars to seek an immediate cease-fire. The U.S. representative spoke strongly. ‘A war between five countries in the South China Sea was bad enough. We now have ten countries involved in two separate wars. The last thing we need is to add NATO to the mix.’”

“In a follow-up to this morning’s report, new photographs from last night’s massive ballistic missile attack on Littoral Alliance capitals have been posted on the Internet. These photographs, many of which are extremely graphic, reveal a disturbing change in Chinese targeting strategy. Instead of striking military, political, or economic targets, the missiles largely hit the residential sections of Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul, and Hanoi. Initial casualty estimates are in the thousands, but an accurate count is proving to be difficult as a number of residential areas and schools were hit in this latest attack. Due to the high number of casualties from previous missile barrages, and damage to some of the hospitals, medical facilities in those cities have been filled to capacity, forcing the use of public buildings as emergency medical wards.

“Civil authorities have brought in rescue dogs to aid in finding survivors, but the destruction is so great that heavy equipment cannot get close to the disaster scene, forcing rescuers to dig through the wreckage with hand tools.

“A Littoral Alliance foreign affairs spokesman issued a statement saying, ‘This latest attack shows just how desperate China has become. They are unable to counter our combined militaries, so they resort to terror attacks against our citizens. Their defeat is near, we will continue to press on!’”

12 September 2016

0800 Local Time

Littoral Alliance Headquarters

Okutama, Nishitama District

Tokyo, Japan

With eight nations making up the Littoral Alliance, the sixteen representatives to the working group, with the necessary translators, took up a fair amount of room. Admiral Orihara could not use the commons area for his briefing, given the level of security, but luckily the Hirano estate’s dojo made an excellent venue. The weapons racks, although empty, still gave the place a martial atmosphere, a perfect setting.

The representatives of each country sat in pairs at western-style desks, complete with national flags. The only jarring feature was the sight of dozens of cable runs taped to the floor carrying power and secure data to each delegation. This information was most definitely not going on a Wi-Fi network.

“Gentlemen and ladies, thank you for your time this morning. This is my first official duty as Japan’s military representative to the working group.” He bowed slightly. “Please take good care of me.”

The first slide said simply “Project Ryusei,” and below in English, “Project Meteor.” He quickly brought up a second slide, a map of China with symbols marking oil installations.

“We’ve been striking oil refineries along the coast with submarine-launched cruise missies, as well as unconventional sabotage and cyber attacks. The refineries at Juijang, Ningbo, Zibo, Beihai, and Panjin have all been reduced to below twenty percent output, effectively crippling them, but this takes time and great effort. There are also many refineries that are simply outside our reach.

“The South Korean land-attack cruise missile, the Hyunmoo 3, can only fly fifteen hundred kilometers after being launched from a submarine. While this sounds like a great distance, it is not compared to the vast expanse of China.” He pressed a control and an irregular red line appeared on the map, a little less than one-third of the way across China from its eastern coast. “Of greater concern is the land-attack Klub missile, employed by the Vietnamese and Indian navies, which has a far more limited range of three hundred kilometers. This severely restricts our ability to strike critical targets in the South China Sea area. All of the refineries that have been hit lie within this area,” Orihara pointed out.

He called up a picture of the South Korean missile, along with its specifications. “The Hyunmoo 3 has a five-hundred-kilogram warhead, which is enough to destroy most individual targets, but many oil refineries cover one or two square kilometers, with hundreds of components.”

An after-strike photo appeared of the Huabei Petrochemical Company petroleum refinery in northern China. “This is a major refinery, with an output of a hundred thousand barrels per day. It was struck by nine missiles fired by the submarine ROKS Ra Kyungji. Aiming for vital components like distillation towers and piping manifolds, the installation’s output was reduced by twenty-seven percent, and repairs are estimated to take several months.

“But the Korean Hyunmoo-3 and the Russian Klub, like most cruise missiles, are subsonic, and although both have very small radar signatures, they can be detected if the searching radar is close enough. The Chinese air defenses discovered the Huabei raid, which took just under twenty minutes to fly from the launch point to the target, and destroyed three of the missiles, or one-quarter of the twelve missiles launched. This is essentially the submarine’s entire load, the maximum number of missiles most subs can carry while still leaving an adequate torpedo loadout for self-defense.

“Another issue is the time it takes a submarine to load weapons in port, sail to the launch area while evading enemy defenses, and return to port after launch. While it is engaged in this type of mission, it’s not doing what it does best: sinking other ships and subs.”

Orihara turned and bowed slightly toward the South Korean delegation. “While the strike went well, and did great damage, we need to reach targets farther inland, with greater striking power, and less chance of interception.”

His next slide drew a surprised murmur from the delegates. It was a photo of a rocket, an orbital launch vehicle, with labeled arrows pointing to different components. The arrow pointing to the nose read “warhead.”

“This is a Japanese H II-series launch vehicle. It was first used in 2002, and has proven to be a dependable heavy-lift platform. Even the basic version can lift four metric tons to a high orbit.”

He changed the slide to show a cutaway diagram of the nose section. “The Self-Defense Agency, working with the Japanese Space Exploration Agency, has developed a simple modification that allows the vehicle to act as a ballistic missile, able to reach any location in China. Since it doesn’t have to reach orbit, it can carry a payload of six metric tons of explosive. Instead of a single unitary warhead, it will carry sixty one-hundred-kilogram charges, which will spread out over an area hundreds of meters across. Each charge includes an incendiary component as well as a high-explosive blast and fragmentation warhead.”

As he’d been describing first the vehicle and then the payload, Orihara had heard soft voices, then discussion, and finally the Filipino military delegate spoke. “How can you even consider this when your constitution explicitly forbids offensive weapons?” Other delegates were nodding as well, with expressions ranging from curiosity to concern.

Orihara looked to Minister Hisagi, who stood. The minister explained, “The self-defense clauses of the constitution were intended to prevent Japan initiating a war of aggression. They do not have any provision for what Japan should do if it is involved in a war of self-defense, or an alliance like this one. ‘Invincibility lies in the defense, the possibility of victory in attack.’”

Everyone understood the quote from Sun Tzu, some nodding their agreement. Hisagi pressed his point. “Only offensive weapons like this,” he said, pointing to the screen, “can carry our fight to the Chinese where they have been safe before.”

He paused, taking the time to look at each delegation. “The Japanese Diet has met in secret session, and is prepared to amend our constitution to allow the construction and use of offensive weapons.” This created a stir, and Hisagi quickly continued, “But we acknowledge and respect the security concerns of our allies and neighbors. The Diet has also agreed that any offensive weapons developed by Japan will be placed under the joint control of the Littoral Alliance, and will be used only against targets approved by the alliance.”

Orihara was watching the group, and could see their expressions change from concern to relief. Confusion was replaced by approval. Almost all the delegates looked convinced, including the Filipino general who’d raised the question. Targeting was already jointly controlled by the alliance. This would simply be another weapon in their arsenal, and a powerful one.

Hisagi sat, and Orihara continued his brief. “Work on Ryusei began soon after the Chinese missile attacks on our capitals. We have reached the point where we are confident the weapon can be successfully developed, and are therefore asking for the working group’s permission to complete the work. We expect to have three missiles ready for launch in several days.”

He brought up the map of the Chinese oil refineries again, but now an arc appeared, reaching from the Japanese launch facility at Tanegashima deep into the Chinese interior. “We are recommending that the first target be the Yumen Refining and Petrochemical plant in western Gansu province, and that it be attacked by all three missiles. Not only is this a major refinery serving western China, but a pipeline from this refinery supplies the Lanzhou refinery to the east.

“We can launch two missiles simultaneously from the Tanegashima facility, and the third six hours later. They should reduce the facility’s output to near zero, and the best part is that the Chinese are virtually powerless to stop them.”