Shattered Trident

10. DECISION

1 September 2016

Tokyo University, Waseda Campus

Hongo, Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo

“We need to know, Doctor, what will the Americans do?” Hisagi Shuhei was an assistant to Foreign Minister Tadashi, and if he was being accurate, spoke not only for the Japanese Foreign Ministry, but in this case for the other Littoral Alliance members.

“The last meeting accomplished nothing,” Hisagi complained. “Everyone was shocked that the alliance had been ‘discovered’ by America, even though it had to happen sooner or later. Perhaps this crisis has come on us too quickly. The alliance has no process for collaborative decision-making.”

Or planning, Komamura thought to himself. He had locked the door to his office and was listening to Hisagi on headphones while he watched the diplomat on the monitor. The man was visibly worried, stress adding years to his forty-something appearance.

“When you’re dying of thirst, it’s too late to dig a well.”

“Another Chinese proverb?” Hisagi asked.

“Japanese,” Komamura answered. “Instead of discussing the question beforehand and having a plan in place, the alliance leadership prefers to wander aimlessly. No wonder they are easily surprised. They cannot reach a consensus even after the event.” Komamura knew he was scolding Hisagi, but he needed scolding.

Along with Admiral Kubo, Hisagi was Japan’s political representative on the “working group,” the ambiguous-sounding name for the Littoral Alliance’s advisory body. Each of the four nations sent two representatives that coordinated the alliance’s actions. The civilians were supposed to set broad policy, while the military ran the war. It had worked so far, but the only policy decision they had made was to begin the war.

“I’ve mentioned before that you needed to be ready for this,” Komamura mused. “I don’t have any special insight into the Americans’ intentions.”

“With respect, sensei, I disagree. Everyone on the council, civilian and military, respects your wisdom.”

That was not as comforting as Hisagi intended. To be truthful, Komamura was dismayed when he thought about the chaos his book had caused. His “wisdom” had taken life and wrought violence. But if one accepted his arguments, it was inevitable. That Komamura could see the problem clearly was a tribute to his academic experience. Still, it made him a reluctant advisor.

He’d tried to keep clear of the alliance’s decision-making processes, but it appeared that plan was doomed. All right, then, if they needed him to assume the role of grand vizier that badly, then he’d assume it fully.

Komamura asked, “Is there any sign that the Chinese have confirmed the identities of the four countries?”

Hisagi shook his head. “None of the alliance intelligence arms has any indication, Professor. And besides, if the Chinese did, they wouldn’t keep quiet about it.”

“They might if they were preparing a surprise counterstroke,” Komamura countered, “but the Chinese would not wait long. That blow would fall quickly. And it is only a matter of time until they have their proof.”

“But how do we answer the Americans?” Hisagi persisted. “They know.”

Komamura fought back impatience and frustration. Coalition warfare was difficult at best, and Hisagi was inexperienced at this type of thing. The members of the working group had been picked by their governments because they were not top-ranking officials whose movements would attract unwelcome attention. They were competent, of course, but unused to speaking for their governments.

“And what power does their knowledge have?” Komamura asked. Then he reasoned, “If we say, ‘Yes, there is an alliance, join us,’ the Americans will refuse. That gives us nothing. If we say no they will know we are lying, but they will not tell the Chinese either.”

He saw Hisagi sit back in his chair, working through the logic. “So we gain nothing by admitting our involvement, and lose nothing by denying it.”

“Certainly this was discussed by the working group,” Komamura stated.

“It was, indeed, but one person was worried that if we denied it, the Americans would be offended…”

Komamura laughed, but quickly stopped. “That is why silence is better than a lie. I hope it wasn’t one of the foreign service officials.”

“No, Professor, it was one of the naval officers. Another expressed hope that while the Americans might not participate, they would publicly support our cause, or perhaps act as an intermediary between the alliance and China to negotiate a cease-fire.”

“Really?” Komamura’s tone made Hisagi smile.

“Are the Chinese close to breaking, Professor?” Hisagi sounded like a man looking for a reason to hope.

Komamura immediately answered, “No, not yet. It’s only been a short while. We have dealt the Chinese a heavy blow, but they are powerful and no less determined than we are.”

The professor gestured to the documents on his desk. “I’ve done nothing since the campaign started except work on the answer to that question. After this crisis has passed, I must instruct the alliance’s intelligence people on how to gather economic data. Much of this ‘secret information’ is neither secret or informative.”

Komamura paused. “Please excuse me, I’m complaining to a man with much larger problems. Given time, our plan will work.” He tried to sound confident.

2 September 2016

1300 Local Time

White House Situation Room

Washington, D.C.

Patterson was giving the briefing. Kirkpatrick had given her as much warning as he could, a little less than thirty minutes.

Myles had called for a meeting of the National Security Council as soon as the Littoral Alliance’s “nonanswer” arrived. Everyone had shown up. No deputies this time. The secretaries of state, defense, the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the director of national intelligence, even the director of Homeland Security sat close to the head of the table, but much of the cabinet had also decided to attend: energy, treasury, commerce, even the attorney general.

The president was late, and he’d sent word to start without him, but the empty chair distracted her. It also meant he wouldn’t hear her opening, but they couldn’t wait any longer. Ray nodded to her, and she stepped up to the podium.

“Ladies and gentlemen, China has mobilized for war, as have most of the nations in the Western Pacific.” She pressed her remote and a map appeared on the screen showing military unit movements from India eastward, all the way to South Korea.

“I am going to summarize the situation in the region. A detailed accounting would take more time than we have. Dr. Kirkpatrick can provide any of you with—”

A rectangle of light appeared to one side, and President Myles came in, hurrying. “Apologies, everyone. My conversation with Prime Minister Keyes went longer than I expected.” He paused, then added, “but the British can add nothing to what we already know.” Settled in his chair, he looked over and said, “Dr. Patterson, please continue.”

She pressed the remote again, and the map zoomed in to frame China. Unit symbols littered Chinese territory, but clustered near the borders. “Of the eighteen group armies that make up their main ground forces, all but two have mobilized, and of those, all but three have left their garrisons. The regional troops in all seven military districts have been put on alert, and this morning President Chen Dao signed an order requiring all reservists to muster with their units.”

Patterson used a light pointer. “Ground and air forces are concentrating in the south, along the Vietnamese border, in the Chengdu and Guangzhou Military Regions. The 13th, 14th, and 41st Group Armies will be in position to attack Vietnam within twenty-four hours. There has been no appreciable concentration across from Taiwan; in fact, elements of the 31st Group Army are heading westward. Some mobile units have been sent to reinforce the northern border, but this seems to be more of a precautionary measure, as they are second-line formations without the latest equipment.

“There are also indications that China has seized several islands and reefs in the Spratly Island archipelago, SIGINT reporting indicates fighting on Namyit and Spratly Islands and Southwest Cay. All three are Vietnamese-claimed islands.

“Every nation in the area, including those in the Littoral Alliance, has gone to a full war footing. In the three Pacific Littoral Alliance countries, U.S. attachés and other U.S. nationals have been barred from military bases ‘for their own safety.’ This has not applied to our joint-use bases in Japan and South Korea. Instead, Japanese and South Korean units are being moved from the joint bases to ones exclusively under national control.”

The map shifted west suddenly, framing India. “Delhi has ordered an alert in the north, ‘because of China’s history of past aggression.’ Indian Army and Air Force units in the area are deploying to defensive positions. Their ballistic missile forces have also begun moving to dispersal sites.”

Patterson brought the map back east, expanding it to include the entire western Pacific. “Merchant ship traffic in the South and East China Seas has dropped by fifty percent in the past four days, with many ships reaching their destination and not leaving, or in some cases, simply heading for the nearest safe harbor. This includes, as of eight o’clock this morning, seventeen U.S.-owned vessels.”

She checked the time. Good, five minutes flat. “Questions?”

General Jason Nagy, the Joint Chiefs vice chairman, raised his hand. “Dr. Patterson, the Vietnamese islands you mentioned, they span the entire length of the Spratlys?”

“Yes, General,” Joanna replied. “Southwest Cay is in the north, Namyit Island is in the center, and Spratly Island proper is in the south.”

“Thank you, ma’am, for makin’ my point,” answered the Marine Corps general with a heavy southern drawl. “That’s a maritime front over two hundred nautical miles long. It would take at least three amphibious assault groups to conduct that many landin’s simultaneously.”

“You’re correct, sir.” She nodded. “Three of China’s Type 071 Yuzhao-class LPDs are in the South China Sea AOR, and the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity has assessed they are the primary units behind the attacks.”

General Nagy smiled broadly. “Yes, ma’am, I’ve talked at length with the boys in MCIA, but doesn’t it strike you as a very fortuitous coincidence that the Chinese have the necessary assets all together and ready to go on a moment’s notice?”

Joanna felt uncertain. What was the general getting at? “Well, General Nagy, they were scheduled to participate in the major exercise, but that is obviously OBE. Since the units were available, the Chinese put them to immediate use attacking islands belonging to at least one of their adversaries.”

Nagy chuckled. “Well, I wouldn’t know about that. But it seems to this dumb grunt that an amphibious campaign of this magnitude would require a helluva lot more time to plan and prepare for than just three or four days.”

The lightbulbs suddenly came on, as everyone present comprehended what the marine general was saying.

President Myles leaned forward, his gaze intense. “General, are you suggesting these invasions were preplanned? How much time would you need to organize such a campaign?”

“Mr. President, all I’m sayin’ is that it would take months to get everythin’ planned and in place, the people trained and properly supplied. Particularly for a navy and a marine corps that hasn’t done anythin’ like this before. Now some pretty smart folks are suggestin’ the Chinese are more flexible and could turn their forces around much quicker than we can. And with all due respect to their considerable credentials, Mr. President, that’s a pile of manure.”

“The ‘imminent Chinese threat,’” Patterson blurted out, referring to the Russian CD. “If the Vietnamese had knowledge of a planned invasion of their holdings in the Spratlys, that would explain the mining of the Chinese carrier—the flagship of the invasion force.”

“My God!” a weary Lloyd exclaimed. “This is the reason why the Littoral Alliance went to war!”

“Hold on, Andy. It only provides an explanation of why Vietnam went to war. It doesn’t do us any good for the other three nations,” retorted Malcolm Geisler, the secretary of defense. He was the newest member of the cabinet, having replaced the ailing James Springfield.

“But it does, Malcolm. Japan and South Korea have similar issues with China in the East China Sea. Remember that tiff over Japanese oil and gas exploration by China near the Senkaku Islands last year? And what about the growing number of incidents between Chinese fishing boats and Japanese and South Korean coast guard ships? Same story, different location,” Lloyd argued.

“And there is still no resolution on the overlapping EEZ disputes between those countries,” added Commerce Secretary Joyce McHenry.

“All right, what about India?” Geisler asked.

“There’s disputed territory there as well, just not quite as picturesque,” Lloyd responded, stifling a yawn. “India and China actually went to war in the early 1960s over the Aksai Chin area. China kicked the Indians’ butt, but ultimately declared a cease-fire and withdrew. The Indians haven’t forgotten that unpleasant episode. They’ve also taken great umbrage over China’s occupation of Tibet.”

“The Indians have also actively opposed China’s development of civilian ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, and Bangladesh. The ‘string of pearls,’ as they are called, is part of China’s strategic plan to reduce the vulnerability of their sea lanes,” McHenry concluded.

“So, there is a rationale that supports a preemptive strike by an alliance of weaker nations with similar grievances against China,” Dewhurst summarized.

“It’s a reasonable theory, General,” observed Kirkpatrick.

“But can we prove it?” Myles demanded.

“We’ll get right on it, Mr. President,” said Alexander. Then turning to Nagy, “General, let’s discuss your theory after the meeting. I’d like to work out the details to help MCIA run this to ground.”

“It would be my pleasure, sir,” Nagy replied.

Myles said, “Well, I’m encouraged. Maybe we can finally get our hands around the root cause of the war. I’m not surprised that it involves an aggressive move by China, but I’m perplexed as to why the Chinese think it’s necessary.

“I’ll sit down with Andy and chew on this one.” He looked over at his secretary of state. Lloyd’s eyes were at half-mast.

“Andy, I’m sorry,” sympathized Myles. “You’ve been at this all night. Please brief the others on the response from Littoral Alliance.”

Lloyd stood slowly, as if with great effort. He looked very tired. “All four nations responded to President Myles’s note with exactly the same words, at the same time, saying that they ‘could not respond to our inquiry.’” He smiled as he said it, but he was clearly not amused. “They didn’t deny it, but they didn’t answer it, either.”

“Did you expect them to admit it, Andy?” asked Myles.

Lloyd sat down, sighing. “They did admit it, of course. They sent us a clear message by acting in unison, but without giving us a staring point for a discussion. I’m a diplomat. We love to talk. I could ask them why they started this war, or what their goals are. Of course, I’d also encourage them to stop shooting, but I don’t think they want to stop.”

“Hard to make them stop when you didn’t know why they started.” Myles sounded frustrated. He’d taught Asian studies before getting into politics. That knowledge wasn’t giving him the answers he needed. “Gregory, has the intelligence community come up with anything to shed light on Andy’s idea?”

Greg Alexander, the director of national intelligence, answered hesitantly, “We have few resources in South Korea or Japan, of course. We rely on attachés in those countries, as well as our bilateral relationships. Our sources in Vietnam and India haven’t given us any information beyond details of their respective mobilizations. It’s clear they are serious, even scared.

“As for the Chinese,” he continued, “they’re scared, too, but not in the same way. Our sources within China gave us no hint of the approaching crisis, and now there’s word that the General Staff’s intelligence arm has launched an all-out hunt for ‘enemy agents.’ We suspect they’re looking for the Vietnamese spy that stirred up so much trouble with the information he or she stole.”

Alexander paused for a moment, as if considering the possibilities. “As a result, most of our people have gone to ground. It’s hard just sending them a request for information, much less expecting anything back.”

“Too bad we can’t find the spy first. He could answer so many questions.” General Dewhurst sounded half serious.

“I’m afraid that isn’t very likely, General, as much as I agree with your sentiments,” snapped Alexander, with a hint of annoyance in his voice.

The conversation was wandering, but the president pulled back on task. “Let me lay this out clearly,” Myles stated. “Right now this war does not involve the U.S. directly, but it’s begun to hurt us economically, and the longer it goes on, the more damage we will suffer. And the longer it lasts, the greater the chance we will be involved, directly. That means open war with China and an impossible cost in blood and treasure. What pressure can we bring on the two sides to stop fighting?”

Lloyd sighed. “With only one side doing the shooting, pressure on China is pointless. And if we publicly act against the Littoral Alliance countries, we give China its targets. So whatever we recommend has to be as covert as the conflict itself.”

The silence that followed Lloyd’s reasoning was suffocating.

General Dewhurst finally remarked, “In 1971, we sent Enterprise into the Indian Ocean to help end the Indo-Pakistani war. That worked.”

“And the Indians and Pakistanis are still mad about it,” Lloyd answered. “And don’t forget that China was just as irate when we sent carrier battle groups off Taiwan in the mid-1990s. A mere display of military force isn’t going to help us this time. You need superior power to enforce a cease-fire.”

“That’s not entirely true,” Alexander countered. “Commander Mitchell managed to stop an attack by a Vietnamese Kilo on a Chinese sub. One could call that ‘local superiority.’”

General Dewhurst visibly winced at the mention of what was already called “the Mitchell incident.” Lloyd scowled, and Ray Kirkpatrick almost scolded the director. “Mitchell was lucky. Poking your nose into the middle of a sub-on-sub engagement is begging for trouble.”

Confused, Myles asked, “But when you briefed me on that, Ray, you said that Mitchell’s sub was far superior to the other two, that as long as he handled himself well, there was little chance of him revealing his presence.”

“Yes, sir, the odds were definitely in his favor, but there was still a risk of being discovered, and a smaller risk of getting shot at. It would have been better if he hadn’t intervened at all.”

“But when he did, he kept the casualty list from growing,” Myles insisted. “One of the reasons wars go on is because of the price both sides have paid in blood. After a while, even if the original reason no longer matters, you keep on fighting because you don’t want all those deaths to be in vain.”

Patterson could see the president was warming up to something. “What if we don’t care whether they know we’re there? What if we use our submarines to spoil attacks, whether it’s sub on tanker or sub on sub? And it doesn’t matter who’s doing the shooting. We show ourselves to be completely neutral by disrupting any attack by either side.”

She listened to the exchange, mentally rolling the facts around in her mind. Like the others, Patterson wanted to find a way to stop the conflict before it spiraled out of control. She agreed with Myles’s goal, but this… It just didn’t feel right. She wanted to say something, but what? She wasn’t afraid to speak, but she had no idea what to say. She wasn’t alone.

Lloyd, the president’s closest adviser, broke the silence that had followed Myles’s suggestion. “Mr. President, I don’t believe U.S. forces have ever been used in that way.”

When Lloyd paused, searching for a second sentence, General Dewhurst added, “The Squadron Fifteen boats are already risking their lives just to ‘observe and report’ in the middle of a war zone. I understand our critical need for information, that’s why I haven’t recommended getting them out of there. This strategy puts them directly in the line of fire, at far greater risk for no gain.”

Lloyd nodded. “I agree with the general, Mr. President. We could lose a sub by getting involved in someone else’s fight. And it will just make both sides mad at us.”

“I don’t mind that if you don’t, Andy.” Myles was smiling, but his tone had a grim edge. “Actually, that’s one of my goals. Two U.S. military allies have begun a secret war, without a word of explanation to us. When we ask them, they stonewall. This will get their attention, and maybe convince them to start talking to us.”

Myles continued, “It also buys us time for Gregory and his people to confirm the rationale for a preemptive strike that Andy put forth. Once we know that, our people can be pulled out of the area.”

“Sir, what if we agree with them?” asked Geisler hesitantly. He saw everyone’s reaction, and immediately added, “I’m not suggesting that the U.S. start sinking tankers, but the countries in the Littoral Alliance did not go to war lightly. This invasion theory is certainly reasonable justification; at least for Vietnam.”

Lloyd answered, “I agree, but it all comes back to the Littoral Alliance not informing us, even after the shooting started. The Russians have given us more information than our ‘Pacific allies.’”

Alexander added, “The Russian may have given us more than we thought. When Senator Hardy said he was interested in reading the book that Petrov had given him, I wondered what it was about. I haven’t read Navies for Asia, but there are summaries and reviews all over the Web, especially on Pacific and Asian Web sites. Komamura’s an economist and historian, but the book is about Asian seapower. He compares the growing strength of countries like Japan and South Korea with fading U.S. influence in the region. He posits an alliance of Asian countries, able to ‘act without U.S. constraints,’ against regional threats. And he has a whole chapter on the Chinese threat.”

“It’s a blueprint for their alliance,” Geisler remarked.

“Except they didn’t withdraw from their treaties with us first,” Lloyd countered.

“Because that might have telegraphed their intentions,” Myles completed. “It all makes sense, right up to the time the shooting started, and after that, it’s all about pride. They’re showing us they can handle China without our help.”

Alexander nodded. “That’s what Komamura said in his book. One of the chapters was titled ‘Sailing Alone.’”

Dewhurst said, “‘Alone’ is a tall order. The Littoral Alliance is trying to cripple the Chinese economy quickly, but Alexander’s economists estimate they will need to keep this up for weeks, maybe months. The Chinese won’t sit still for that long, even if their opponents manage to stay hidden.”

“I concur,” Geisler added. “If China approaches the crisis point without a clear target, they’ll start lashing out randomly. But it’s more likely they’ll get the proof they need, and then their anger will have a focus.”

President Myles stood and turned to face down the length of the table. “Every scenario we’ve discussed ends up with a bad situation getting considerably worse. If the only way to change the dynamic is by using our submarines as spoilers, then that’s what we’ll do. Does anyone else have a better idea?”

General Dewhurst said, “Four submarines aren’t enough to stop a war, if that’s even possible. In a few days we’ll have two carrier strike groups assembled off Japan’s east coast…”

“Who will we use them against, General? My official policy is to find out what’s going on. The spoiler strategy will pressure the Littoral Alliance into communicating with us, while hopefully keeping the casualty count from climbing.”

“Somebody will accuse us of being the ‘world’s policeman’ again,” Alexander observed.

Myles shook his head sharply. “Absolutely not. The world’s too small for conflicts like this anymore. If two neighbors next door are feuding, and it’s likely to endanger my family, then it’s in my interest to stop it. Let me worry about justifying this to Congress and the American people.”

“Excuse me, Mr. President, I’m loath to bring this up, but I believe it’s necessary,” Kirkpatrick interrupted hesitantly. “This course of action you are considering has considerable risk, politically. It would be quite damaging to your campaign to insert U.S. forces into this conflict. Your opponent would be able to capitalize on this move, and your poll numbers are not as… as robust as we would like.”

To everyone’s surprise, Myles laughed. “Ray, I appreciate your concern. But my Republican opponent will criticize me just as vigorously if I choose some other course. Since I’m damned if I do, and damned if I don’t, I might as well get skewered for doing something.”

He turned to Dewhurst. “General, in consultation with Dr. Kirkpatrick, the CNO, and Secretary Geisler, write orders that turn Commander Mitchell’s tactic into a plan for spoiling attacks by either side. The goal is to limit the violence to both sides while minimizing the risk to our people.”

Dewhurst was writing furiously as the president spoke, and when the general paused to look up, Myles added, “And get some more submarines into the area immediately.”

2 September 2016

1430 Local Time

Old Ebbitt Grill

Washington, D.C.

Joanna had called and asked him to take her to lunch at the Old Ebbitt Grill. It was one of her favorite places, and Hardy knew immediately she was upset.

They both liked the place—dark, warm décor, great food, and bustling without being too noisy. She’d met him inside, out of the late-summer heat. She smiled, but it was thin, almost forced. He’d started to worry with the phone call, and that now blossomed into full-blown concern.

They’d been seated immediately, with Hardy watching her every movement. They both knew the menu well enough to immediately order their meals. The waiter had barely disappeared with their choices when she asked, “Did you ever have to carry out an order you didn’t agree with?”

Surprised but relieved, Hardy asked, “In what way? Illegal, immoral, or just stupid?”

Patterson shook her head and gestured as if brushing the question aside. “It’s not illegal or immoral, and I’m almost sorry it isn’t. That would be easy.”

Hardy almost laughed out loud, but suppressed all but an amused snort. “Not for some people in this town. What’s this about?”

“I can’t go into details. It concerns my current assignment.”

“So it’s stupid, but important.”

“Yes. Very important,” she answered. “But let’s change ‘stupid’ to ‘bad idea.’ And can I pass it on if I don’t think it’s the right thing to do?”

Hardy sighed. “It’s an old story. I was in command of a nuclear submarine, master of all I surveyed, except for the ‘in’ box in the radio room. Whoever you are, whatever rank you are, there’s usually somebody with a higher rank, telling you what to do.”

“Not in this case,” she replied. “Nobody outranks this person. He gave the order, and it’s passed down to me, and now I have to tell someone else to do it.”

“I understand why this is hard, Joanna. I’ve had the ‘chain of command’ philosophy drummed into me since the academy. It doesn’t take a full day there before you find out that not all orders make sense, and that some of them aren’t just bad ideas, they’re downright stupid. With anyone in the military, following a legal order should be automatic.”

“I can’t be just a robot,” she protested.

“You’re not a robot,” Hardy insisted. “I said ‘automatic.’ That doesn’t mean you stop thinking. You’re allowed to have your own opinion, but it’s the big guy’s call to make. Wait a minute. Did he come up with this on his own, or was there discussion?”

“Lots of discussion.” Their drinks arrived, and she took a good-sized pull on her glass of wine.

“Do you have information that he doesn’t?”

“No.”

“Then you’ve got nothing to worry about,” he explained. “It really is his decision to make, and your duty is now to carry it out to the best of your ability, especially if you think it’s a bad idea. The orders you agree with are the easy ones. Now is when you earn your lunch money.”

“I can’t help but feel that by cooperating, it’s my fault when it goes bad.”

“Now you’re just whining.” Hardy’s voice was still warm, but it had a hard edge. “That’s why people look at the top of the chain when things go bad. He gets all the credit, and all the blame.”

Hardy leaned closer, and spoke softly, but with great feeling. “What your boss needs right now is everybody working in the same direction. If it’s a near thing, your efforts may make all the difference. You make it happen, his way, and no second-guessing.”

As Hardy sat back, he suddenly smiled. “Besides, you can never tell how things will work out. Some years ago, when I was in command of Memphis, I got a presidential order that I was certain was insane. Can you believe he wanted me to take two civilian women with me on a northern run?”

She made a face at him. “And it’s been nothing but trouble ever since.”

He shrugged and grinned. “There have been some positive aspects.”

“All right,” she sighed. “It’s my job, and I’ll do my best, but can you please give me some guidance on what to say? Captain Simonis is going to like this even less than I do.”

“The commodore of Squadron Fifteen?” Hardy had started out in a normal speaking voice, but lowered it to almost a whisper as he realized they were veering toward classified realms.

She nodded silently.

“Does this thing have to do with his submarines?”

“Yes,” she answered simply.

Standing quickly, Hardy reached for her hand. “Come on. You don’t have a leisurely lunch with operational orders waiting to be sent.” As Hardy pulled out his wallet and threw a couple of bills on the table, their server spotted them. Hardy explained, “I’m sorry, something’s come up. That should cover our order.”

Hurrying out of the restaurant, he said, “I’ll coach you on a few things you can say, and a few more you shouldn’t.”

The thick, hot air was a shock after the air-conditioned interior, but it was only three blocks to the White House’s staff gate. “Don’t worry,” he continued as they walked. “Simonis knows the drill. He’ll protest, and probably ask questions, maybe even pout, but if he’s any kind of an officer, he’ll eventually say, ‘Aye, aye’ and make it happen.”

2 September 2016

1615 Local Time

The White House

Washington, D.C.

Captain Simonis’s image appeared almost immediately. It was a little after four in the morning in Guam, but he’d been close by, evidently. “Dr. Patterson, good…” He glanced at something off camera. “… afternoon in Washington.” He didn’t smile. Captain Glenn Jacobs, the squadron chief staff officer, and Commander Walker were both visible in the background. In the lower corners of the screen were insets showing Admiral Bernard Hughes, the chief of naval operations at the Pentagon, and Rear Admiral Burroughs, COMSUBPAC in Hawaii. Patterson saw Simonis’s eyes narrow as they darted back and forth, looking at the screen; he saw the two flag officers.

“I apologize for the early hour, Captain, and I won’t waste your time. Has anything significant or unusual happened since your 2000 report?”

“No, ma’am. All boats are on station and operating as ordered.”

“Good. The National Security Council has decided to make a change in our tactics. We’ve decided to become more proactive.”

Simonis frowned, mixing confusion and concern. “I’d hoped my boats had gathered enough data that we could think about withdrawing from the middle of a war zone.”

“Unfortunately, Captain, we are still missing several critical pieces of information. Although we know who is participating in the Littoral Alliance, they refuse to acknowledge the fact to us. The president is also very concerned about the damage the alliance is inflicting on China.”

Simonis paused before answering. “If that’s the case, then things are going to get a lot worse. The Chinese Navy is having absolutely no luck in tracking the alliance subs, much less sinking them.”

“That is why your new orders are to actively interfere with the alliance and any Chinese submarine attacks they observe. Distract them, disrupt and confuse them, whatever it takes to make the approach fail and allows the potential target to get away.”

Simonis paused again, but his expression was unusual—wide-eyed and blank-faced. He seemed to be considering different responses, evaluating the pros and cons of each alternative. He finally settled on verifying the content of her last statement.

“Are you directing us to deliberately involve ourselves with a hostile submarine as it approaches a vessel it intends to attack?”

“Yes, with the purpose of preventing that attack, either by alerting the target or distracting the attacker.” She was pleased with her answer.

“I’ve never heard of such a thing,” Simonis replied, almost to himself, but it was clear that he did intend for her to hear it. “What do we hope to gain by this tactic?”

“First, to reduce the casualty count. If the Chinese lose too many ships, they will be compelled to take more aggressive military action as a face-saving measure. Second, to compel the Littoral Alliance to open a dialogue.”

“I guarantee it will get their attention. But what if our subs are detected, or mistaken for an enemy boat? What if they are fired on?”

“It’s no longer necessary to remain undetected, but your rules of engagement regarding counterfire remain unchanged,” Patterson replied calmly.

“I like being undetected. If they can’t see me, they can’t shoot at me. Deliberately revealing ourselves in the presence of not just one, but possibly two potential enemies, while tying our hands behind our back, goes against all my training. It’s not what submarines are supposed to do!”

The captain paused, and took on a calmer tone. “This is taking what Mitchell did and asking everybody in the squadron to do it—repeatedly. Are you sure the president has been properly informed on the capabilities and vulnerabilities of our submarines?”

“He was well briefed, Captain.” Patterson chose a firmer tone. “The detailed orders are being sent right now by secure communications.”

Simonis was visibly shaken. “Mitchell was lucky, and North Dakota is a flight three Virginia class—a step up from Texas and at least a generation more advanced than my two Improved Los Angeles boats. They won’t have the same acoustic edge over the alliance boats. The Chinese, perhaps, but not a Project 636 Kilo or India’s Chakra.”

“But they still have superior sensors and fire control systems, and we are also sending reinforcements; at least three more submarines are being sent to you. USS North Carolina left Pearl Harbor earlier today.” Patterson took a deep breath. “I appreciate your concern, Captain, we all do, but all your boats have to do is interfere with an attack, not sink them.”

“Sinking is easier!” he shot back. “Leaving a hostile sub that’s detected you alive invites disaster. I can’t even begin to assess the increased risk to my boats. Is the return on this change in tactics worth the lives of my crews?”

His question went straight to her heart, and although Patterson tried to hide her reaction, the effort may have given her feelings away. She’d been ready for this, though. Lowell had taught her.

“Captain, you have your orders. I expect you to do your best to carry them out.”