Tiger's Claw

THE WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM, WASHINGTON, D.C.

A SHORT TIME LATER

President Kenneth Phoenix stepped quickly into the Situation Room, wearing a Marine Corps physical training outfit after the early-morning wake-up call. Tall, trim, and athletic, the former Marine Corps officer and judge advocate, federal prosecutor, U.S. attorney general, and vice president of the United States waved everyone back to their seats. “What’s going on?” he asked.

“We lost contact with a Navy P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance plane,” said the president’s national security adviser, William Glenbrook. “It was over the South China Sea on routine patrol, in the vicinity of the Chinese aircraft carrier Zhenyuan.”

“Oh, Christ,” the president muttered. He reached for a cup of coffee—he knew right then he wasn’t going back to bed for a long time. “Were they intercepted or engaged in any way by the Chinese?”

“They were intercepted by two PRC fighters, reported to be J-20s,” Glenbrook said. William Glenbrook was a thirty-year Army veteran who rose through the ranks from private to four-star general and was former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, serving in the same White House as then attorney general Phoenix under President Kevin Martindale. “The P-8 reported suffering a massive electrical malfunction.”

“How did they report that with an electrical malfunction, General Glenbrook?” asked Secretary of State Herbert Kevich, who had just arrived at the Situation Room moments before the president. Kevich had been deputy secretary of state under the previous administration, but he was so experienced and knowledgeable in Russian and Chinese affairs that he was kept on by the Phoenix administration. A short, round, impatient-looking man with round reading glasses affixed to the end of his nose even though he mostly looked right over them, Kevich was clearly exasperated by most military officers and high-ranking government officials, even to the point of not acknowledging he was one himself. Kevich arrived quickly when the notification went out to the president’s national security staff because he had no other life other than as secretary of state—he would have been perfectly happy to live in the Situation Room, or even in the basement of the White House, if it meant he had speedier access to all the world’s events.

“The crew was communicating with their command post via civilian satellite text messages for a short time after the malfunction took place, Secretary Kevich,” Glenbrook said.

“Texting while driving? Not a smart move, I think,” Kevich quipped.

“A very heads-up move, I think, Herbert,” Phoenix said. “I want a search-and-rescue mission initiated immediately, and I don’t want the Chinese involved in any way, especially that carrier. If it’s in the area of the crash, I want it out of there.”

“Yes, sir,” Glenbrook said.

“That might be problematic, Mr. President,” Kevich said. “The South China Sea may legally be considered international waters, but the Chinese consider it their exclusive domain, as we do with the Gulf of Mexico or the Japanese with the Sea of Japan. The Chinese government will not like being told what to do in their own front yard.”

“If the Chinese lost an aircraft over the Gulf of Mexico, I wouldn’t mind if they brought search teams or even an aircraft carrier battle group in to search—we’d keep an eye on them, but I’d allow it,” Phoenix said. “We’re not going to play power politics or geopolitical upmanship with a search, rescue, or recovery mission—China must not interfere, period. I want the crash site located and secured from the air as well as the surface. Warn anyone nearing the area to remain clear.”

“And if they don’t, Mr. President?” Kevich asked.

“Have the on-scene commander for the rescue report to me if the Chinese won’t cooperate,” Phoenix replied after a short pause for consideration. “Commanders can do whatever they need to do to protect their forces, but no other action without approval. Tensions are going to be high—I don’t want anyone shooting first and asking questions later.” Glenbrook nodded and picked up the telephone to issue the orders.

Several minutes later, Vice President Ann Page entered the Situation Room, carrying a secure tablet computer. She was accompanied by Thomas Torrey, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Page was a multidegree engineer and physicist by training, but her background spanned the universe, from her years as a U.S. senator from California to one of America’s most experienced astronauts and space weapons designers. Slender and energetic, with short gray hair, she was the president’s closest adviser. Torrey was a thirty-year veteran of the CIA despite looking no older than forty years of age; in the drastic downsizing of the federal government under the Phoenix administration, the post of director of national intelligence was eliminated and once again the CIA director oversaw all civil foreign intelligence operations in the United States. “Tom just gave me the transcript of the text messages sent by the surveillance plane, Mr. President,” Page said, holding up the computer. “The crew believed the J-20 fighters launched from the carrier.”

“They obviously wanted us to see those fighters, sir,” Torrey said. “The Chinese could even have allowed the Poseidon to come in close enough to see them launch from the carrier.”

“But why would they shoot down the Poseidon?” the president asked. “It doesn’t make sense.”

“Something else happened out there,” Page said. “The text transmissions stopped abruptly for some reason. Then several minutes later one of our Asian search-and-rescue satellites picked up a ‘Mayday’ distress call with the Poseidon’s partial call sign. No other transmissions were picked up until the SARSAT received the Poseidon’s emergency locator beacon, which is usually activated either manually or after a crash.” The SARSAT, or Search and Rescue Satellite, was a satellite dedicated to picking up and relaying signals from aircraft and vessel emergency beacons, providing accurate position data to rescuers. “It was obviously activated manually because the position of the plane changed quite a bit, as if it was still flying. Then the position stopped. But the plane’s track was only active for a couple minutes.”

“So they didn’t activate it manually until just before they hit the water?” the president asked. “Would they do it so late?”

“Depends on what they were experiencing,” Torrey said. “If they had an in-flight emergency, such as a fire or flight-control problem, perhaps they were dealing with that right before they crashed.”

“We may not know anything until we recover whatever’s left of the plane and its black boxes,” Page said. “Even then, we still may not know for sure.”

“So the Chinese may not be culpable after all,” Secretary of State Kevich said. “Sir, do you still want to issue the order to keep the Chinese away from the crash site? They are obviously closer to the site and have considerable resources to conduct a rescue. If they offer their assistance—or if they initiate a search-and-rescue effort on their own, as any nation or vessel on the high seas should—we should welcome such cooperation. After all, China is not our enemy.”

“That might be the neighborly thing to do, Herbert,” Phoenix said, “but I think it’s no coincidence that one of our surveillance planes falls out of the sky near a Chinese carrier battle group. I want the reason why that plane went down determined as best we can before I rule anything out. If this was indeed a deliberate act and not an accident or malfunction, then whoever did it will try to erase the evidence—and if that someone is China, and if they reach the crash site, I think that’s exactly what they’d do.”

Kevich looked at the president carefully for a few moments. “We’ve had this discussion before, sir, after the Chinese withdrew from Somalia,” he said carefully and directly, “but it does bear repeating: presuming China as an adversary may make it come true, even though they may not be.”

“I don’t think of China as an adversary, Herbert,” the president said. Kevich gave him a skeptical expression; the president paused for a few moments, then nodded. “To be honest, Herbert, I consider them a serious potential adversary.”

“With respect, sir, I think much of that comes from fear,” Kevich said.

“Maybe so, Herbert,” Vice President Page said, bristling at the insinuation that Kenneth Phoenix was fearful of anything. “But the Chinese government is not doing very much to lift the unknowns and secrecy that are causing fear to rise. We’re not asking them to reveal every secret or strategy. They are more than happy to accept our efforts at openness and cooperation, but it’s rarely mutual.”

“The Chinese are an old and insular people, Miss Vice President,” Kevich said. “They are isolated politically, geographically, and culturally. It is important for us to remember and understand that the nations of the West have done nothing but exploit China from the sea for centuries. Now that China is embarking on a program to modernize and increase trade with the world, we become suspicious. They are looking to the future and willing to wait to become a world power. We think in terms of months or fiscal quarters—the Chinese think in terms of decades or even generations.”

“All that may be true, Herbert,” the president said, “but it always hasn’t been the case. Chinese explorers have traveled half the globe. Isolation has mostly been the chosen method for controlling their enormous population, especially when their maritime provinces became rich and powerful and the agrarian inland provinces stayed in abject poverty. Besides, this is the twenty-first century—no nation, not even China, can remain isolated.”

“And when we get reports nearly every day of another computer or network hacking attempt traced back to a Chinese government-owned or controlled entity,” Page said bitterly, “I wonder if the war has already started—we’re just not engaged in it yet.”

“All I’m saying, Miss Vice President, is that it makes little sense to me why a three-thousand-year-old nation would do anything to threaten its own existence, especially versus the most economically and militarily powerful nation on Earth,” Kevich said. “Although China is undergoing an economic and military surge, please remember that its economy is still one-third of ours; we have over a hundred years of naval aviation experience, while they have just a few; and we still remain a world power, while China is only on the brink of becoming a regional power.”

“But that region is pretty damned important to us and the rest of the world, Herbert,” Ann said. “If this incident turns out to be a bid by Beijing to claim sovereignty over the South China Sea region, we need to squash that plan immediately.”

“If they were involved in the Poseidon incident, I would expect it to turn out to be an accident or an isolated incident by an inexperienced and misguided sea captain, and we should keep open minds so as to not threaten our strategic relationship,” Kevich went on. “Never forget, we rely closely on each other in dozens of areas: trade, finance, investment, education, technology, geopolitical balance, the list goes on. The fate of the entire planet rests on the balance between the West and China. One incident shouldn’t threaten to upset that balance.”

President Phoenix remained silent for a few long moments, then nodded. “Points well taken, Herbert,” he said finally. “Maybe I am jumping to conclusions.” Kevich nodded and smiled, satisfied that his arguments seemed to win over the president. But his smile faded when the president went on, “But I still don’t want the Chinese near that crash scene. We’ll politely but firmly ask them to stay away while we conduct search, rescue, recovery, and investigation activities.”

“I reiterate, sir: China considers the South China Sea of the utmost strategic value—sending in a large armada of ships, even to mount a search and rescue, may be perceived as a provocation,” Kevich said.

“I understand what you’re saying, Herbert,” the president said, “but we’re not going to get into a philosophical discussion about foreign relations with China when we have American sailors down in the South China Sea.” He thought for a moment, then continued: “I’ll call Premier Zhou right away and notify him of our intentions, and ask him not to allow any vessels to interfere. I’ll also speak with Prime Minister Ruddock of Australia, Tran of Vietnam, Cruz of the Philippines, and Saleh of Indonesia. They should all know what is happening and what we intend to do next. Herbert, contact NATO, ANZUS, and ASEAN and advise them as well.” The countries of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance, were always notified of such contingencies, even though they were not in the region; the other organizations—ANZUS, which stood for Australia, New Zealand, and the United States; and ASEAN, or the Association of South East Asian Nations—were important regional alliances and associations with whom the United States regularly cooperated. “Bill, get together with General Spellings and give me a rundown of the forces in the region and the assets the task force will use for the search and rescue.” Air Force General Timothy Spellings was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the president’s primary uniformed military adviser. “Give Pacific Command full authorization to start the search.”

“General Spellings is on his way over with the order of battle and a search-and-rescue plan right now, sir,” Glenbrook said. “He’s already sent me the latest disposition of forces, and he said he’d be ready to brief a real-time update by the time he arrives at the White House. I’ll get a briefing from him first when he arrives, ask him to fill in any holes, then let you know when we’re ready to brief the national security staff.”

“Very good,” Phoenix said. Now that everyone had their assignments they filed out of the Situation Room, leaving Phoenix alone with Ann Page. “So what do you think, Ann?” Phoenix asked.

“I think I don’t like Kevich implying you were acting out of fear of the Chinese,” she said.

“I meant about the Poseidon incident,” Phoenix said. “Herbert speaks his mind, which is why I have him in the Cabinet. Everyone here is supposed to speak their minds with me, not just you.”

“So he thinks he can admonish and even accuse the president of the United States just because he’s forgotten more about Russia and China than we’ve ever known? I don’t think so,” Ann said perturbedly.

“Let’s get back to the Poseidon loss, shall we?” Phoenix asked. “I’m about to tell Premier Zhou that I’m going to send in a number of warships right into the middle of his own private lake, and I don’t want any of his ships or planes nearby while they’re there. Herbert’s right: he’s not going to like it. I wouldn’t like it if he told me he was going to send a bunch of warships into the Gulf of Mexico, and I wasn’t allowed to at least monitor their activities, if not be directly involved. I would allow it, but I’d reserve the right to keep close watch on what they’re doing. Do you think I should allow China to monitor us, like Herbert suggests?”

“Hell no,” Ann said. “We lost a sophisticated surveillance aircraft and several Navy personnel near a Chinese warship and aircraft. The plane was unarmed, on a peaceful surveillance mission, and it was flying in international airspace and went down in international waters. I don’t buy the argument that the South China Sea is China’s private lake. We’re going to conduct a search-and-rescue operation, and then a recovery-and-investigation operation, and we don’t want anyone—especially China—interfering. Period. End of sentence. And the definition of ‘interfering’ is whatever we say it is, whenever we say it.”

Ken Phoenix thought for a moment, then smiled and nodded. “I agree completely, Ann,” he said. “Herbert is the geopolitical guru around here, but we’re going to put geopolitics aside until we rescue our sailors and find out what the hell happened. If anyone gets in the way, we’re pushing back. All the other relationships with China don’t matter until our rescue and investigation operations are concluded.”

“Sounds good to me, Mr. President,” Ann said. “I’ll get together with my staff and get ready for a morning press briefing.” In the extreme drawdown of the federal government, the vice president acted as chief of staff and press secretary as well as performing her other constitutionally mandated duties; despite the extra workload, Ann Page made doing the extra tasks look easy. “I expect my phone will be ringing off the hook when I get back to the office. You want me to do a few morning shows too?”

“Not until we have more information, Ann,” Phoenix said. “I don’t want you in front of forty million viewers saying nothing more than ‘we don’t know anything yet.’ Give a statement to the press corps—nothing about our suspicions about the Chinese fighters or aircraft carrier, of course—and that’s all for now.”

“Yes, Mr. President,” Ann said. They discussed a few other important matters over coffee, then they headed back to their offices to continue their day that had started so early with the iconic “phone call in the middle of the night.” But before Ann departed, Phoenix called out to her: “One more thing, Ann.”

Page stopped at the door. “Yes, Mr. President?”

“It’s a ‘Ken’ question, Ann,” the president said. He paused, thought for a moment, then spread his hands. “How do you think I’m doing, Ann?” he asked.

“Doing . . . what, sir?”

“Doing . . . the job. Being president. How am I doing?”

Ann rolled her eyes and shook her head. “Excuse me, sir, but what kind of question is that?”

“Don’t give me that ‘sir’ crap, Ann,” Phoenix said. “I didn’t pick you to lay the extreme protocol formality stuff on me when we’re in private—I know you’re not bred for it, which is why I chose you to run with me in a last-second primary and general election blitzkrieg campaign. We lucked out and won, in the narrowest of margins ever recorded.

“But sometimes I feel like I’m spinning my wheels,” Phoenix went on. “The economy is still in the tank and there seems to be no end in sight. I’ve cut the budget and tax rates down to bare bones, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting anything very much. At the same time, China and Russia are pushing forward with reclaiming old empires and challenging us everywhere.” He paused for a moment, his brow furrowing, lost in thought; then: “Ann, am I presiding over a failed republic? Is the United States . . . done?”

“Done? What do you mean?”

“I mean . . . I mean, we just lost an airplane over the South China Sea, and my most knowledgeable adviser tells me to ‘be careful’ in deploying search-and-rescue forces in the area,” Phoenix said. “Years ago, the United States moved where it wanted, when it wanted, and we never considered other nations’ concerns, especially in a crisis situation. Now, even with an absolutely critical and sensitive emergency event such as this, we seem to be hamstrung by caution. We’re afraid of offending China. Our own sailors are down, perhaps by hostile intent, but we’re still afraid of offending the People’s Republic of China. Why? Is this right? How did we get to this point?”

“First of all, Ken, Herbert is an academic and an administrator,” Ann said a bit testily, stepping back into the Situation Room with the president. “We hired him because he has an encyclopedic mind, speaks both Russian and Mandarin along with six other languages, and can organize everything from individuals to entire cabinet-level departments better than anyone we’ve ever seen. But he’s just a bureaucrat. He lacks vision. He needs guidance and direction.

“You, on the other hand, are a doer, a man with leadership qualities and a vision for the future,” Ann went on. “You decided that the best way to fix the economy was to cut taxes, cut the size of government, reorganize the military, and stimulate growth, reinvestment, and hiring by cutting rules and regulations that were squeezing businesses. You made a decision, charted a course, moved forward, and pushed your ideas through Congress in record time.

“But along with vision comes introspection and even a large measure of self-doubt, and sometimes that worries me more about you than anything else,” Ann said earnestly. “The presidents I’m most familiar with—Thorn, Martindale, and Gardner—may privately have had doubts, but they never expressed or showed them. You, on the other hand, wear them on your damned chest like a general’s ribbons.

“The people of this country, and of the entire world for that matter, don’t need or especially expect peace, prosperity, or comfort from their leaders, Ken. They need and expect leadership. They want our leaders to do something, take a stand, fight for what they believe in, and make arguments about why what they have planned is the right thing to do. So you keep on doing what you do best: lead. You focused in on exactly what the issue here is: search for and rescue our sailors and find out what happened. Kevich advises you to be careful and lectures you about China, but you keep returning to the matter at hand. You’re doing it right. Stop worrying.”

“A lot of people—a lot of nations—will get hurt if I screw up things with China,” Phoenix said. “The economy will really melt down if China decides it doesn’t want to invest in us anymore.”

“Let’s worry about that after we get our sailors back,” Ann said. “Besides, my economic advisers and the commentators I trust are telling me the economy is doing better than you think. If you want, let me worry about the critics of your economic plan. I listen to dozens of politicians whine and complain about austerity measures, but I also hear thousands of small businessmen cheering about lower taxes and freedom from Washington bureaucracy. Unfortunately, the politicians and the whiners are usually the ones who get the press.

“About Russia and China: they’re going to do whatever they’re going to do, and there’s precious little we can do about that except keep the lines of communication as open as possible, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst,” Ann went on. “It so happens that their economies are on an upswing while ours is in the crapper. That is not going to last very long. Russia’s surging economy and foreign policy is based on energy exports and bullying their neighbors into not cooperating with the West—when oil is back to thirty dollars a barrel, Russia runs out of cash. China’s surging economy and seemingly stable government is based on cheap exports, a shadow currency and economy, and suppressing dissent. As soon as exports fall, the true market value of China’s currency is revealed, and the unemployed and poor agrarian segments of the population start to rise up against the government, China is on the skids.”

“You’re starting to sound like Herbert,” Phoenix said with a wry smile.

“I’m not an analyst, Ken,” Ann said. “But I agree with Herbert: unless there’s a loose cannon in Beijing or in the Chinese military, I don’t think China is a threat to us. I think Beijing will be perfectly happy to wait to see if we collapse on our own instead of choosing to take us on, especially at sea. They can afford to wait, even for fifty years. What’s fifty years to a country that’s been around for three thousand years?”

Phoenix thought for a moment, then shook his head. “I disagree, Ann,” he said. “I’ve felt for several years that something is stirring in Beijing and Moscow. The Chinese invasion of Somalia and the deployment of antiship ballistic missiles all over Southeast Asia confirmed it, and now this suspicious event over the South China Sea reinforces it. Beijing may not want to pick a fight, but I think they’d like to show the world that they are ready to take more of an active role in the world, including militarily. I think if they’re waiting for the collapse of the United States, they’d be happy to do whatever they could, short of all-out war, to hasten our demise.”

The vice president nodded noncommittally. “No argument from me, Ken,” she said. “I’m tired of being surprised by the Russians and Chinese. The Chinese invasion of Somalia, the antisatellite missile strikes from submerged subs, and the quick proliferation of DF-21D missiles all over the Pacific and Indian Oceans were all real eye-openers. We were caught completely flat-footed. Now we lose a surveillance plane near a Chinese carrier battle group, and again we’re hunting for answers. It’s not a happy place to be.” She looked at the president carefully. “What are you thinking about, Ken?” she asked.

“I’m thinking about breaking the damned bank and beefing up the military, especially the Navy and Air Force,” Phoenix said. “I can’t do anything about the economy more than what we’re doing already—doing everything we can to help businesses invest, government standing out of the way so businesses can grow. If we’re going to invest in anything in this era of reduced government and reduced taxes, it’s defense. I want to rebuild the military. I want to stop the reductions in military spending and show the world that even if the United States is back on its heels in its budget, we will still push ahead with a strong military force.”

“You know you’re going to get hammered in the press, Ken,” the vice president said. “You campaigned on an antispending platform and put together a massive austerity program, promising to balance the budget in eight years—then you want to propose spending more money on defense? That’s not going to fly.”

“Politically, it’ll be a train wreck,” Phoenix said. “But no one in the media is looking at what we’re looking at in China and Russia: they are surging, and we’re lagging. I’m tired of worrying about what we should be doing out there—I want to do something about it.”

“But face the facts, Ken—there’s no money. Zero,” Ann said. “Everyone knows there’s no money for new weapons systems, aircraft carriers, next-generation bombers, or space. All that is out the window. Deal with it. We have Armstrong Space Station with antisatellite and antiballistic missile weapons installed, but everyone is thinking it’s a huge boondoggle and can’t wait for it to reenter and burn up in the atmosphere. No one on Main Street, and especially Congress, will give you money for a high-tech military that might take ten years to put together. No one believes that anymore.”

“I’m going to find a way to do it, Ann,” Phoenix said determinedly. “I don’t know how, but I’ll find it. A change in strategy, closing bases, reducing duplication, maybe even doing away with a branch of the service—I’m going to find a way to modernize our military without going back in debt to do it.”

“Doing away with a branch of the service?” Ann asked incredulously. “Where in the world did that come from, Ken?”

“I’ve thought about this for a long time, Ann,” Phoenix said. “Each branch of the service spends . . . what, a hundred fifty billion a year? The Navy maybe a little more? But if you combined the duplicated major budget categories of the two services that operate the most aircraft, maybe we could save as much as half that amount, or more.”

Ann shook her head in wonderment. “We gotta sit down and talk this over sometime soon, Mr. President—maybe over a glass or two of Scotch,” she said. “I think I’m going to need a little alcohol to wrap my head around the monumental challenge of passing a bill through Congress that will pull the plug on the Navy or Air Force. Let’s find our sailors and find out what happened to our plane, and then we’ll work on doing away with a branch of the service. Good morning, Mr. President.” And she departed, shaking her head with a wry smile.

By the time the president made his way back to the Oval Office, Glenbrook and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Timothy Spellings, were waiting for him. Phoenix invited them in, and they sat at the meeting area with cups of coffee. Glenbrook opened a large wall-mounted computer monitor from inside its hidden compartment, and Spellings stood beside it, a wireless presentation remote control in his hand.

“Thanks for getting this information out here so fast, General,” the president said. “Please proceed.”

“Thank you, Mr. President,” the tall, thin four-star general said. He activated the monitor, which showed a map of the North Pacific Ocean region. “This map shows the current deployment of carrier strike groups and Marine amphibious-ready groups in the Pacific, current as of last night—there was no time to bring this morning’s updates. As you can see, sir, there’s only one carrier group under way in the Seventh Fleet area of operations, the George Washington, and one amphibious warfare group, the Boxer, which are part of an exercise being conducted in northeastern Australia in the Coral Sea. Of the other four Pacific carriers, only one, the Reagan, is available—it is participating in fleet replacement carrier qualifications near San Diego, but it can be retasked fairly quickly. The others are undergoing planned maintenance or complex refueling overhaul. The Stennis will be available in about four months; the Carl Vinson in about a year, and the Lincoln in eighteen months.”

“Just two carriers immediately available to cover the entire Pacific?” the president asked, surprised.

“That’s been the pattern for the past few years, sir,” Glenbrook said. “And Seventh Fleet extends all the way into the Indian Ocean. With budget cutbacks, the carriers spend a lot less time on patrol. Generally, there is just one carrier strike group operating in Seventh and Fifth Fleet areas of responsibility at a time. Extended carrier and amphibious-ready group deployments in Second, Third, Fourth, and Sixth Fleets have all but gone away.”

“No wonder China seems to be more aggressive these days—our most potent weapons are all in home port,” Phoenix said. “How long would it take to get the two Pacific carrier groups into the South China Sea?”

“The George Washington can be on station in just a few days, sir,” Spellings replied. “The Reagan would take about ten days to arrive after wrapping up its carrier quals. Admiral Fowler wanted me to remind you, sir, that sending the Reagan unless it was absolutely necessary would delay working up replacement carrier crews, which would entail longer deployments for crews serving now.”

“I’ll keep that in mind, General,” the president said, “but I’m more concerned about our crewmembers lost in the ocean and finding out what happened to our reconnaissance aircraft. Better get the Washington moving up there to assist in the search-and-rescue operations, and warn the Reagan personnel that they might be needed. What else do we have?”

“Unfortunately the closest military units aren’t well suited to search and rescue, but we’ll have a presence and can keep an eye on things until surface units arrive,” Spellings went on, reading from a secure tablet computer. “The closest unit we have available is the attack submarine USS New Hampshire, on patrol in the southern South China Sea. It can be in the area in about four hours. We can send a Global Hawk from Okinawa and have it on station in about six hours.” The RQ-4 Global Hawk was a long-range, high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned surveillance aircraft that could send radar, electro-optical, and infrared sensor images via satellite to bases thousands of miles away. “We also have five long-range bombers and three aerial refueling tankers based at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam that are on thirty-minute alert. They can be over the area in three to four hours.”

“Bombers?” Kevich remarked. “Surely you’re not thinking of attacking anyone, General? With what are they armed?”

“Day-to-day normal alert: nothing more than chaff and flares for self-defense,” Spellings replied. “They have a variety of weapons available, but they are loaded only as the situation dictates. Their real value in this scenario would be as a rapid-reaction forward presence.”

“Saber-rattling, General?” Kevich intoned. “I thought we were all beyond that.”

“The Chinese have been saber-rattling with their new aircraft carrier all over the South China Sea for months,” Glenbrook pointed out. “They’ve harassed every military or military-related vessel that cruises within two hundred miles of their shoreline.”

“I don’t think that’s a good reason to elevate tensions in the area by sending in bombers,” Kevich said. “Armed or not, the bombers are a clear provocation. I would be against sending in the aircraft carriers except if they would participate in the search, rescue, and recovery.”

“All the bombers have excellent radar, and the B-52s and B-1 bombers have low-light TV and infrared sensors that can transmit images back here to us,” Spellings said. “They wouldn’t be there just to saber-rattle, Mr. Secretary.”

“Have Pacific Command send a warning notice to Guam, advising the bomber wing of the situation and to stand by in case they’re needed,” the president said. “But for now, we’ll keep them away from the South China Sea. So, how do we proceed with the other assets we have on hand, General?”

“Until the George Washington arrives, the surface search-and-rescue task force will be led by the high-endurance Coast Guard cutter Mohawk, based in Seattle but on a joint search-and-rescue drill with Taiwanese coast guard vessels in the northern South China Sea near Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan,” Spellings went on. “It has a helicopter and an unmanned tilt-rotor aircraft embarked. They can be in the area in about eight hours.”

“A Coast Guard cutter? That’s the best we have?”

“For a search-and-rescue mission at sea, they’re the experts, sir,” Spellings said. “We’re lucky to have one so close. We could see if there are any commercial vessels in the area, but I don’t have direct access to that information. Besides, the Poseidon carried classified equipment and documents, so I think we’d want to keep all civilians and foreigners away, not just the Chinese.”

“I’m thinking about the worst-case scenario—our ships tangling with that Chinese aircraft carrier or its escorts,” the president said. He thought for a moment; then: “Get the cutter moving to the crash site as well, but find out if there are any Taiwanese, Japanese, or Filipino navy vessels available to assist. Get the sub moving and the Global Hawk airborne, General.”

“Yes, sir.” Spellings picked up a telephone to issue the orders.

Turning to his national security adviser, the president said, “Bill, I want a detailed analysis of the transmissions—and lack thereof—from that P-8 as soon as possible. The sudden loss of communications indicates some sort of electromagnetic interference—jamming. I want to know if any other ships or aircraft in the area were affected. I also want to know if we have any information that the Chinese are working on any sort of electromagnetic weapons that could have been used on the P-8. I know we’ll know more once we recover evidence from the crash site, but I want a list of questions that need to be answered as this thing moves forward.”

“Yes, Mr. President.” He moved toward another telephone to issue orders, but instead pulled out a vibrating cell phone, looked at the display, and punched in unlock codes for the secure line. “Glenbrook, secure,” he spoke. He listened for a few moments. He said, “I’ll pass the word. We’ll need an order of battle assembled as soon as possible,” then hung up.

“What is it, Bill?” Phoenix asked.

“Radio transmissions picked up by commercial vessels in the South China Sea, sir,” Glenbrook replied. “Helicopters from the Chinese carrier are headed north toward the suspected crash site, and the carrier itself is also heading north. It appears the Chinese navy is ordering other ships and aircraft out of the area and setting up a search at the crash site.”