Tiger's Claw

NINE

THE WHITE HOUSE OVAL OFFICE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

A FEW HOURS LATER

“It was a deliberate and aggressive act of war on the part of the Taiwanese Nationalists, Mr. President,” Li Peiyan, the People’s Republic of China’s ambassador to the United States said in excellent English. The fifty-year-old former army general looked very stiff, moving his entire body instead of just his head as he addressed President Phoenix and Vice President Page in their Oval Office meeting, and his very large hands were formed into fists and laid atop his thighs, as if expecting to use them at any moment. With Phoenix and Page were Secretary of State Herbert Kevich and National Security Adviser William Glenbrook. “Our aircraft carrier battle group was being stalked by that Taiwanese submarine, and a helicopter was shot down when the sub was discovered. Every nation on Earth has the right to defend itself!”

“That is nonsense, Mr. Ambassador,” President Phoenix said. “China has no right to impose restrictions and issue ultimatums on any vessel operating in the South China Sea.”

“Mr. President, Chinese vessels have come under fire from Vietnam, Taiwan, and even from the United States . . .”

“That is nonsense as well,” Vice President Ann Page interjected. “Our Coast Guard helicopters did not open fire on anyone—they were unarmed, as was our P-8 Poseidon patrol plane.”

“Our intelligence reports say otherwise, madame,” Li said. “We have a complete list of the weapons that are routinely carried by your aircraft, and they match with what our crews on the scene reported. As for that Taiwanese submarine: it was an obvious challenge to President Zhou’s instructions that were designed to eliminate the very threat that existed out there—an attack by a submerged submarine on a Chinese vessel. Do you expect China not to respond?”

“Our analysts tell us that the People’s Liberation Army Navy attacked with a nuclear depth charge, Mr. Ambassador,” President Phoenix exclaimed.

“That is an outrageous lie, sir!” Li retorted. “China has pledged a no-first-use policy . . .”

“Yes, you did—after you attacked Guam with nuclear weapons ten years ago!” Ann interjected.

“I would very much appreciate not being interrupted, madame,” Li snapped, looking like some kind of automaton as he stiffly turned to address the vice president. “Mr. President, I have no explanation for that explosion, which our sea-surveillance satellites and carrier battle group vessels also detected. Perhaps that was a nuclear-powered submarine, or it was a diesel-electric submarine carrying nuclear weapons. The blast was relatively small, so perhaps it was not even a nuclear device—we have not yet had a chance to investigate. But the fact is, sir, that a Taiwanese submarine attacked a Chinese aircraft and warship, and our navy responded. The same with the Vietnamese warship—it attacked a Chinese patrol vessel, and long-range weapons were used to defend our ship because the patrol vessel did not have the weapons to defend itself against the Vietnamese frigate. China is not the aggressor here, sir—it is Taiwan, Vietnam, and the United States, and we believe we are being threatened by Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and Indonesia as well. China has a right to defend its territory and its warships.”

“China must lift restrictions on warships transiting the South China Sea, and do it immediately,” President Phoenix said angrily. “Otherwise China will see itself being matched two to one—for each surface vessel, submarine, or aircraft you station in the South China Sea, the United States and its partners will shadow them with at least double that number.”

“That is a serious and dangerous escalation of forces in that region, sir,” Ambassador Li said. “Think carefully of what you pronounce, Mr. President. A two-to-one match might be construed as preparation for a blockade of China’s port cities or even a general war, sir.”

“Think of it as you wish, Mr. Ambassador,” Phoenix said. “The South China Sea is not China’s sole possession, and it does not have the right to wantonly attack ships and aircraft there, especially peaceful, unarmed aircraft or nonthreatening ships. As for preparation for war, Mr. Ambassador: the United States has been closely monitoring large troop movements all throughout your country, especially along the coasts. It appears to us that you’re mobilizing troops for action.” He held up a hand just as Li was going to speak. “I don’t need to hear your denials or flimsy explanations, sir. Our intelligence is accurate, and I assure you, the United States and its partners around the world that we are sharing our information with are responding accordingly. Our actions will be swift and accurate.”

Ambassador Li Peiyan shot to his feet, all semblance of stiffness instantly gone. “That, sir, sounds like a threat to me,” he said, “and that is what I will convey to my superiors. I have already been recalled by my government. Good day, sir, madame.” And he strode to the door, which was opened for him from outside the Oval Office by a Secret Service agent.

“Well, that went very well,” Kevich said sarcastically under his breath but loud enough to be heard by everyone.

“Get off it, Herbert,” Ann Page snapped. “The Chinese just set off a nuclear explosion in the South China Sea, and they nearly sank a Vietnamese warship with a supersonic cruise missile. Do you think they still care about diplomacy and peace? They are not just asserting themselves—they are putting the world on notice that they will use any and all means, including nuclear weapons, to keep warships out.”

President Phoenix nodded but remained silent for several moments; then he picked up the phone. “Get me the secretary of defense right away.”

While he was waiting, he pulled a card from his pocket, looked at his watch, and did a fast calculation in his head. He didn’t have to wait long: “Yes, Mr. President,” Fredrick Hayes responded.

“Fredrick, put us at DEFCON Three,” the president said, then read off the authentication code he had computed, using the current date-time group.

“Yes, sir,” Hayes said, and he read off his own authentication code, which the president checked and verified. Any event involving movement or employment of nuclear weapons required coded verification and a two-man authorization. DEFCON, or Defense Readiness Condition, was a gradual change in military readiness for nuclear war. DEFCON Five was the lowest level of readiness; DEFCON One meant that nuclear war was imminent. The United States had been at DEFCON One immediately following the American Holocaust; on DEFCON Two after a cease-fire had been negotiated with the Russians following the American counterattacks; on DEFCON Three several months later as tensions eased around the world; then down to DEFCON Four about a year after the attacks, where it had been ever since. DEFCON Three resulted in ships being put to sea, leaves canceled, battle staffs formed, contingency plans put in place, and all available aircraft and ships loaded and made ready.

“Secretary Hayes has relayed the order to Northern Command, U.S. Strategic Command, and Air Force Global Strike Command, sir,” National Security Adviser William Glenbrook reported a few minutes later, “and we are at DEFCON Three. The posture change is being relayed to NATO.”

“I’m going to need a complete rundown on exactly what we can bring to bear against China,” the president said angrily. “I’m not going to back down. China will rue the day they decided to set off a nuke. I want to park an aircraft carrier battle group opposite each one of their largest military ports.”

“That may not be a good idea, sir,” Glenbrook said, his face a mask of deep concern. “We don’t dare send a carrier strike group out there now, sir, until we figure out who’s in charge and get an idea of what they intend to do. Whoever’s really in charge in China—Zhou, or more likely General Zu himself—has just let the nuclear genie out of the bottle. They could just as likely hit our carriers with a nuclear carrier-killer ballistic or cruise missile. That could kill thousands of sailors and destroy billions of dollars’ worth of hardware with just one warhead.”

“I’m not going to let that happen,” President Phoenix said. “I want every known storage facility and launch site for those carrier-killer ballistic missiles and cruise missiles targeted by Tomahawk cruise missiles. If we don’t have enough cruise missiles in range to cover all the known targets, I want preparations made to put more ships and subs to sea that can fire Tomahawks. I want as many ballistic missile defense ships and ground systems deployed as possible in the Pacific. I want as many bombers and fighters as possible deployed to bases in the Pacific, armed appropriately with whatever they need to destroy China’s air defense and command-and-control system, penetrate their airspace, and take out ballistic missile sites.” He paused, expecting the usual hesitant reaction from Herbert Kevich, but he didn’t get it this time.

“All that is going to take time, sir,” Glenbrook said. “We have only two aircraft carrier battle groups available right now in the Pacific. Under DEFCON Three we can probably get another put to sea in a few months, but the other is in extensive maintenance and won’t be available for a year at the earliest.”

“Then we need other solutions, Bill,” the president said. “We have other ships, cruisers and destroyers, that can fire cruise missiles. We need to figure out a way to get them the same long-range air protection that the carriers have.” He thought for a moment then said, “Ann, we need to talk to the leadership in Congress about getting funding for more of McLanahan’s bombers, and then to resurrect the Space Defense Force and the carriers I canceled last year. They’re the only solutions we have if China is going to continue to throw its weight around like this. We need to brief them on the DEFCON change—that’ll be a good time to hit them up for the money. Make it a closed-door classified briefing in the Situation Room—I’m going to tell them everything we know about what China has been up to lately.”

“Yes, sir,” she said. She stepped over to Phoenix and asked in a low voice, “Want me to leak some details about that nuclear depth charge, Ken?”

“Later, after the meeting with the Leadership—they might even leak it first,” Phoenix replied sotto voce. In a normal voice he said, “Until then, tell the press we know about the explosion and we’re investigating. You can tell them we’re not getting any cooperation from the Chinese and they have recalled their ambassador.”

The phone on the president’s desk beeped. “The hot line with Beijing,” Phoenix told everyone in the Oval Office, and he picked it up. His surprised expression immediately got everyone’s attention. He put the call on hold. “This has to be some kind of speed record,” he said. “I don’t think Ambassador Li is even out of the White House yet.” He put the call on speakerphone, which activated the videoconference function. “I’m here with the vice president, the secretary of state, and my national security adviser. Go ahead, Mr. Gao.” Now the others had matching surprised expressions.

“Thank you for taking my call, President Phoenix,” acting president of China Gao Xudong said in excellent English. “I just spoke with Ambassador Li, and I felt it most important to speak with you directly.”

“That’s good, Mr. Gao,” the president said, “because as a result of our meeting with Ambassador Li I have ordered additional defensive weapons systems to be delivered to the Pacific theater of operations; I have ordered every known Chinese antiship ballistic missile pad to be targeted by long-range cruise missiles; and I am seeking a meeting with congressional leadership about approving funding for more ballistic missile defense systems. Everyone in this room fears that war with the People’s Republic of China is imminent. Tell me I’m wrong, Mr. Gao.”

“I called to avert exactly that scenario, Mr. President,” Gao said. “President Zhou ordered the attacks on the Vietnamese and Taiwanese warships, including the use of special weapons.”

“You mean nuclear weapons, Mr. Gao,” Ann said. “We had better be crystal clear about what we’re talking about here, don’t you agree, sir?”

“Quite so, Miss Vice President,” Gao said. “I agree completely. Yes, President Zhou had authorized the use of the long-range antiship cruise missile and the nuclear depth charge. He wanted to prove to the world that China was prepared to use all means necessary to protect and defend China’s sovereignty of the South China Sea.”

“You speak of President Zhou in the past tense, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix observed. “What has happened?”

“The president was forced to undergo medical treatment because of a deteriorating mental health condition that called into question his ability to make rational decisions on behalf of the people of China,” Gao said. “He was obsessed with keeping all foreigners, especially foreign warships, out of the first and second island chains, and he even decided to use nuclear weapons. His orders against the Taiwanese submarine had already been issued, but after I learned of the president’s orders, I notified the Politburo. They took the president away immediately. Unfortunately we were not in time to stop the depth charge attack on the submarine, but I believe we have stopped many more such attacks from happening. General Zu is cooperating completely. The Politburo appointed me president until the National People’s Congress can convene and elect a new president.”

“So you’re saying that Zhou was working alone, without any authority from the Politburo or Secretariat?” Secretary of State Kevich asked. “You are acknowledging that the People’s Liberation Army Navy attacked the Vietnamese warship and Taiwanese submarine, but the orders were given by Zhou without authority of the Politburo or Central Military Committee?”

“Exactly, Secretary Kevich,” Gao replied.

“What about the P-8 Poseidon patrol plane and the Coast Guard helicopters?” Phoenix asked. “Did he give the orders to have them shot down as well?”

“Unfortunately, President Phoenix, he did,” Gao replied without hesitation. “The patrol plane and the first helicopter were downed by an experimental high-power microwave weapon called ‘Silent Thunder’ mounted aboard the aircraft carrier Zhenyuan that temporarily cripples electronic signals. It is similar to weapons employed by the United States and Russia. Zhou was told that the P-8 aircraft had the capability of launching antiship cruise missiles, and he immediately ordered it to be brought down. The second helicopter was shot down by a carrier-based fighter because your helicopter was out of range of Silent Thunder. Zhou is plainly insane, Mr. President.”

“This is extraordinary,” Phoenix said, shaking his head in utter shock. “How in the world can anyone trust China ever again, Mr. Gao?”

“The heart of the matter here, sir, is countries who claim they have the right to explore for resources in the South Sea, and the militarization of the South Sea,” Gao said. “The issue of which country is permitted to explore for oil, gas, and other minerals in the South Sea is important for China. It is not fair for one or more countries deciding on its own to explore for oil and gas without consulting the other nations who claim that right. Similarly, countries who place armed troops on disputed islands in the South Sea without consulting others, or who used armed aircraft and warships to patrol within a nation’s territory, are not right and such actions lead to distrust, hostility, and conflict. If the practice is not stopped, we could see an arms race in the South Sea on a massive scale.”

“What is China’s position, Mr. Gao?” Phoenix asked.

“Our position, sir, is that all the waters and islands within the first island chain belong to China,” Gao said matter-of-factly. He correctly interpreted Phoenix’s and Page’s exasperated expressions. “However, unlike Zhou Qiang, there are those of us who understand that many other nations claim this territory as well under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Our claim is based on historical and legal fact, which no one seems to care about or wants to discuss. But notwithstanding Zhou’s actions, there are many leaders in China who are patient and confident that a solution will be found. All must understand that hostile aircraft and vessels inside the two-hundred-kilometer economic exclusion zone represent a serious threat to all nations and must be kept away.”

“The UNCLOS treaty allows for unrestricted passage of any ship or aircraft outside of a country’s territorial waters—that’s twelve nautical miles,” Ann Page said. “China is a signatory to that treaty, sir.”

“I believe the twelve-mile limit was instituted because at the time that was the maximum range of shore bombardment guns aboard most warships,” Gao said. “In this age of cruise missiles and supersonic flight, twelve miles is a pittance, a matter of just a few seconds. Surely you understand that any military activity that might be considered hostile must take place outside the two-hundred-nautical-mile limit. This would include submerged submarines, armed aircraft, spy planes, and warships that are configured for battle, such as aircraft carriers with ready flight decks.”

President Phoenix looked at the vice president in surprise. “You seem very well prepared to discuss such a wide-sweeping policy, Mr. Gao,” he said.

“It is a matter of great importance to my people, sir,” Gao said. “Think of this, Mr. President: our Zheng He carrier battle group steams in toward New York, Washington, San Francisco, or New Orleans. We have forty supersonic stealth strike aircraft, dozens of nuclear cruise missiles, and guns that can fire a shell twenty miles with great precision. Eleven nautical miles off the coast it is considered hostile and is prohibited, but at thirteen miles it is not? I think the populations of all our coastal cities would be thankful if carrier battle groups stayed at least two hundred nautical miles away, not just twelve. Would you not agree, sir?”

President Phoenix nodded to the vice president. “Yes, I would,” he admitted.

“That is most excellent, sir,” Gao said. “I realize it will take many weeks or months—hopefully not longer—to get an international treaty signed, but I think it should be possible for our two nations to agree to this as a signal to all nations to work toward peace. Hostile aircraft and ships should stay at least two hundred nautical miles from our respective shores.”

“I’d like to discuss it with my entire national security staff, sir,” Phoenix said, “but if we are in agreement, I think such a restriction can be put in place while we consult with the Senate on a formal treaty.”

“Thank you, sir,” Gao said. “This has been a most unfortunate and, frankly, terrifying episode, Mr. President. I felt as if events were threatening to spin completely out of control. I hope we can plan a way forward that increases communication and cooperation between our countries so this never happens again.”

“I feel the same way, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “Zàijiàn, Mr. Gao.”

“Good-bye to you too, sir,” Gao said. “Xièxiè.” And the connection was terminated.

Phoenix replaced the receiver on its cradle, then looked up at the others. “What do you make of that?” he asked.

“It makes me even more distrustful of the Chinese, sir,” Ann Page said. “They set off a nuke in the South China Sea, then expect us to just sign a piece of paper and back away? Why should the United States back away? We haven’t been attacking anyone in international waters!”

“I know, Ann, but it’s a start—we’re less likely to start a war on the high seas if all the warships stay away from each other,” Phoenix said. “Herbert?”

“I am extremely relieved and optimistic to hear from Gao Xudong, and grateful to him for his very complete explanation and for formulating a plan of action so quickly. It certainly eases my concerns.”

“I’m still not convinced, Herbert,” Ann said. “Just a few days after Tang and Zu announce strict rules about movement in the South China Sea, Gao completely reverses them?”

“It makes sense if what Gao said about Zhou is true,” Phoenix said. “If Zhou was calling all the shots without getting permission, he and Zu could have easily brought China to the brink all by themselves.”

“I don’t know Gao that well, sir,” Kevich said. “But he is Western educated, highly intelligent, and well respected all around the world. He appears to me a very capable vice president and will probably make a good president.”

“But does he have the stones to stand up to General Zu?” Ann asked.

“That I do not know, Miss Vice President,” Kevich said, his forehead wrinkling at the vice president’s salty language. “But he would not be allowed to reveal all he did without cooperation from the general staff. His admissions and presenting that plan were extraordinary, and he would never have been authorized to do it if the military wasn’t on board.” Ann Page still looked doubtful but said nothing.

“Bill?” the president asked.

“I’m with the vice president on this one, sir—this stinks to high heaven,” National Security Adviser Glenbrook said. “I think we should press ahead with everything you wanted to do before we got that call from Gao: beef up defenses in the western Pacific, send as many bombers and fighters as possible out there, and get ready for a fight.”

“That would not send a very cooperative signal, General Glenbrook,” Kevich said.

“The Chinese admitted they set off a nuke in the South China Sea—that doesn’t sound very cooperative either, Mr. Secretary,” Glenbrook said acidly. “We can still comply with everything Gao suggested: aerial patrols, transiting the South China Sea, exercises, port calls, and keep two hundred miles from port—except we build up our presence and defenses in the western Pacific, and do it quickly. Maybe China won’t be so ready to set off a nuke if we have a few fighter and bomber wings and a couple aircraft carrier battle groups nearby.”

“I still think that would be overly provocative, sir, given the admissions and conciliatory tone of President Gao’s call,” Kevich said.

President Phoenix thought about it for a few moments, then said, “I agree, Bill. Continue on with arming the western Pacific, but we’ll limit the patrols to unarmed aerial patrols and announce when we sail ships through the South China Sea. We can still look cooperative and continue beefing up our footprint out there.” To the vice president: “When that dispatch from Gao comes in, Ann, read it over and brief me on the high and low points. You can tell the press that we’re in direct contact with the highest levels of the Chinese government on a resolution to this incident.” Phoenix shook his head ruefully. “When the word of that nuclear depth charge attack gets out, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I just hope there’s not a massive international panic.”