Tiger's Claw

THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

SEVERAL DAYS LATER

The White House photographers just finished taking their pictures of the president of the United States and the acting president of China sitting down in the Oval Office together and shaking hands just before their meeting. Vice President Ann Page and many members of the Cabinet stopped by to meet Gao, who warmly greeted them. Finally, the two leaders sat down in their seats in the Oval Office, the president with a cup of coffee and Gao with tea.

“I wish to thank you for agreeing to this informal meeting, Mr. Gao,” President Phoenix said. “I’m sorry we couldn’t make it an official state visit; I’m sure you understand.”

“Of course, Mr. President—I was only appointed president by an unelected body, so I am not technically a head of state,” Gao Xudong said. “But you are very kind to receive me. It is indeed an honor to be in the White House.”

“The honor is mine for you taking time out of your day to leave New York on the eve of your address to the United Nations and meeting us,” Phoenix said. “And thank you for providing the State Department with a draft of your address. That is of course what prompted my request for a meeting.”

“I am happy to do so, Mr. President,” Gao said. “I understand you have concerns about my address?”

“I wanted to clarify some details in your speech, sir,” Phoenix said, “and I was hoping to persuade you to make some changes to the text of your address to reflect the actual situation.”

“Such as, sir?”

“First of all, sir, the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford is not being based in Australia,” Phoenix said. “It is taking part in regularly scheduled exercises with Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and New Zealand.”

“It has not left the area of the southern South Sea and eastern Indian Ocean for many months, and it has put into ports in Australia several times,” Gao pointed out. “And your Marines are definitely based in Australia. The United States first deployed just five hundred Marines—that number has grown to over five thousand.”

“I’m not perfectly familiar with all the details, sir, but I assure you, the Ford is not based in Australia,” Phoenix said. “We no longer have carriers stationed in other countries, all due to the economic slowdown and cuts in military spending.” Gao said nothing. “But now that you mention bases for carriers, we couldn’t help but notice that the Russian Vladimir Putin carrier battle group has been on an extended visit to China. Are you basing Russian carriers at Chinese ports now, sir?”

“The Russian navy has been kind enough to train our carrier aircrew, maintenance personnel, and many other specialties,” Gao explained. “China is also contemplating building a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and Russian expertise would be of great importance.”

“I see,” Phoenix said. “You also say in your speech that the bombers that are stationed on Guam are armed with nuclear weapons. They are most assuredly not armed with nuclear weapons.”

“Our intelligence suggests otherwise, sir,” Gao said rather sternly. “An in-person inspection of your aircraft and facilities on Guam would be in order to verify that there are no forward-deployed nuclear weapons.”

“That would be acceptable,” the president said. Gao raised his eyebrows in surprise at the response. “We would also like to verify the existence of nuclear weapons aboard your warships in the South China Sea.”

“As you know, sir, China is under martial law at the present time,” Gao said. When he noticed Phoenix’s expression turn to one of deep skepticism, he added, “But I think that can be arranged.”

“Very good,” Phoenix said. “You also say that we are conducting armed airborne patrols of the South China Sea. That also is not true. Only the aircraft on the ground are armed and are on quick-reaction alert.” He paused for a moment, then said, “China seems to be quite anxious about those aircraft on Guam, Mr. Gao. Guam is an important military base, and access to the Pacific is extremely important for the United States and our allies, as it is with China and her allies. The Continuous Bomber Presence program has been in effect since shortly after 9/11, sir—almost fifteen years. China has never expressed any concerns about the bombers on Guam before now.”

“The nearly tripling of the size of the bomber task force, the addition of more fighters and radar aircraft to the task force on Guam, and the aggressive way the B-1 bombers were used near our aircraft recently all contribute to my government’s concern, Mr. President,” Gao said. “If your goal is to intimidate the People’s Republic of China, Mr. President, you have succeeded.”

“That was not my intention in the least, sir,” Phoenix said. “We have also noted in your speech, Mr. Gao, that the United States is now ‘stationing’ two carrier strike groups in the South China Sea. That also is not true. We conduct regular patrols through the entire western Pacific and South China Sea, but we have not stationed any carriers there. Per our agreement, the transit times and duration of each passage is communicated well in advance to your government, and the carriers are configured so as to not have a ready deck for fixed-wing aircraft.”

“Perhaps that can be modified in my address, sir,” Gao said, although he clearly didn’t like it and didn’t seem too committed to do it. “But our intelligence analysts have noted an increase in the number and frequency of those patrols.”

“Mr. Gao, those patrols were increased after the loss of our patrol plane, patrol helicopter, and rescue helicopter last year,” Phoenix said. “Surely you can understand our deep sense of caution after those tragic losses.”

“Of which China has freely admitted and done everything possible to prove our sincere regret and mitigate the losses to those involved.” There was an uncomfortable pause in the Oval Office; then, a few moments later, Gao said: “President Phoenix, the B-1 bombers patrolling the South Sea—they appear to be different from the ones on ground alert. Can you tell me about them?”

“Seems to me you already have a great deal of information, sir,” Phoenix said.

“I am not trying to be coy, Mr. President,” Gao said, the stiffness of his posture accentuating the edge in his voice. “You have spies in China; we have spies in the United States. It is the nature of the world we live in. But the information we gather only leads to more questions.”

“If I can answer your questions, Mr. Gao, I will; otherwise I will collect the answers right away.”

“Thank you, sir,” Gao said. “We have noted that some of the B-1 bombers have civil registration numbers on them instead of serial or bureau numbers, and some are painted differently. The crews also wear different flight suits than the others. If I may be so bold, sir, but they appear to be civilians or perhaps nonmilitary operators. CIA, perhaps?”

“Contractors,” Phoenix said. Obviously China has spies that were uncomfortably—and possibly dangerously—close to Andersen Air Force Base, he thought, close enough to distinguish subtle differences like registration numbers and flight suit colors. That was very ominous and needed attention. “Civilian contractors, familiar with the aircraft, run under Air Force supervision.”

Gao’s face was the most expressive than it had been the entire meeting. “Indeed. Not military or government?”

“The purpose of those civilian B-1 aircraft is strictly long-range surveillance,” Phoenix said. “They don’t even have weapons operators aboard. They are there to augment our fleet of Global Hawks and other unmanned aircraft. They are much more flexible and responsive than many other sensor platforms.”

“That is very interesting, sir,” Gao said. “Not CIA?”

“Not CIA.”

Gao didn’t seem like he believed Phoenix, but when he searched Phoenix’s face he didn’t sense any attempt at evasion or untruth. “Very interesting,” he said. “But you understand that the presence of long-range strike aircraft such as B-1 bombers only increases our deep concern over your intentions, sir.”

“That’s why I’m telling you about them,” Phoenix said. “They are there to support the Continuous Bomber Presence task force and take the patrol burden away from them. Since we have so few Air Force personnel these days who know about B-1 bombers, we rely on contractors.”

“So these . . . private aircraft, they are not being armed?”

“No.”

“Is it possible to arm them, Mr. President?”

Phoenix leaned forward and looked Gao directly in the eye. “I think that depends on the nature of the threat, Mr. Vice President,” he said. He sat back in his chair after a brief but tense pause. “Truthfully, I don’t know if they can carry weapons, but right now I’ve ordered them to just patrol.”

“Would not the Global Hawks be a better aircraft for overwater patrols, Mr. President?”

“Everyone wants a Global Hawk these days, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “There just aren’t enough to go around. Besides, the Pacific is a big body of water. We got a good deal on refurbished B-1 bombers. It turns out they’re perfect for this mission.”

Gao nodded, still with a slightly surprised look on his face. “Refurbished strategic bombers operated by civilian contractors,” he muttered. “Very interesting indeed.”

“I’d like to get back to the issue of militarizing the western Pacific and South China Sea,” President Phoenix said. “Namely, your new aircraft carriers and the DF-21D antiship ballistic missile sites popping up around the region. You have two carrier battle groups in the South China Sea, and a third we understand, the former Spanish amphibious assault ship, is being readied for deployment in the East Sea. Your DF-21D ballistic missiles cover the entire region, including the Philippine Sea, Celebes Sea, Adaman Sea, and Strait of Malacca.”

“You seem to possess a great wealth of information as well, Mr. President,” Gao observed.

“That seems like a lot of firepower being deployed in a very short period of time, sir,” Phoenix said. “Why?”

“I am sure you know the reasons as well as I, Mr. President,” Gao said. “It is for the very same reasons you have such a large and powerful navy: you have long coastlines, and foreign trade and open lines of communication are essential to you, as it certainly is with China. At the risk of offending you by appearing to lecture you, sir, China has always been vulnerable from the sea. China is surrounded by natural barriers from every direction but the east, and most every foreign invader has attacked from the sea. And in the modern era, China relies more than ever on maritime trade.”

“But the ballistic missiles?”

“Purely defensive in nature, sir,” Gao said. “We are decreasing the size of our army, but it is still large and takes many resources. Our military budget is slowly expanding, and we are trying to modernize, but it will take years, perhaps even generations, to do so. We must rely then on technology for our defensive requirements. Half our population lives within three hundred kilometers of the sea. Our population centers are vulnerable to attack from the sea, even with a large army behind them.”

“The Dong Feng–21 has been described to me as a ‘carrier killer,’ Mr. Gao,” the president said. “Is that your intention—to kill aircraft carriers?”

Gao made what could have been a stiff chuckle. “I have seen your aircraft carriers, sir,” he said. “A missile that you launch from the back of a truck does not appear to me to be a match for a vessel that weighs almost one hundred thousand tons. No, sir, America’s aircraft carriers are not a target for China’s missiles.”

“Mr. Gao, we’ve been studying the DF-21D for almost ten years,” Phoenix said. “It’s based on a mobile medium-range ballistic missile. It has a maximum range of almost two thousand miles and a five-hundred-kiloton nuclear warhead. You’ve deployed dozens of them along your coast and several in foreign countries. You cannot pretend they’re insignificant.”

Gao appeared to remain motionless for several moments, then bowed his head slightly. “My apologies, sir,” he said, although his voice did not sound contrite in the least. “I do not intentionally make light of this very serious topic, and I again apologize for not treating you with the proper respect.” Phoenix did not say or do anything in response. “Allow me to speak plainly.”

“Please,” Phoenix said stonily.

“First of all, sir, the Dong-Feng missiles deployed currently are not armed with nuclear warheads,” Gao said. “They have a sixteen-hundred-kilogram high-explosive warhead and a range of only seven hundred kilometers. These are not ‘carrier killers,’ as you say—against a ship that size they may do some damage, but will not sink it.”

“But you can put a nuclear warhead on them, correct?” Phoenix asked.

Now it was Gao’s turn to look the president in the eye and say, “As you said, Mr. President, it depends on the nature of the threat.” Phoenix rewarded him with a hint of a smile and a nod. “Mr. President, let us again speak plainly. We both have vital national matters that require the protection of our armies and navies. We rely on free movement of the sea for our economic well-being. That imperative is not going away any time soon.

“Therefore, I am sure you know well that the People’s Republic of China has no intention of taking down our missiles or decommissioning our carriers,” Gao went on, “no more than the United States would beach its nuclear submarines or dry-dock its carriers. Our nations must protect themselves. It is lamentable that our forces confront each other as they did yesterday, but that is the nature of the world and of the current geopolitical and military posture in which we find ourselves.”

“Sounds like you’re resigned to accepting the current state of affairs, Mr. Vice President,” Phoenix said.

“I try to be realistic and pragmatic, sir,” Gao said. “America used its prosperity and status after World War Two to build a great navy with which to secure the seas so as to expand trade throughout the world. China is merely doing the same. We must export goods, so we must have unfettered access to the world’s oceans—and thus a military force capable of guaranteeing that access.”

“That is a very honest and forthright view of the situation, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said. “So why don’t you say that in your speech tomorrow? Why accuse the United States of trying to start a war with China by stationing a few aircraft on an island a thousand miles from China? Why invent half-truths about our naval forces?”

“Because the people of the world and the politicians who will listen to my speech do not care about pragmatism,” Gao said. “Pragmatism does not increase defense budgets or inspire boys and girls to become sailors or airmen or work on the docks or in the factories. My speech is designed to show the people of the world that China faces danger and we need to do something about that danger. I want to focus the world’s attention on what is happening around China’s shores, and to put the world on notice that China is developing the modern resources to protect itself. China is no longer an isolated third-world country with old outdated ideas, tactics, politicians, soldiers, and weapons. China is on the rise.”

“Sounds very ominous and fatalistic, sir,” Phoenix observed.

“Not at all, Mr. President,” Gao said, a slight smile forming on his lips. “I enjoy watching American football when I visit your country. When the receiver and the safeties are racing down the field, occasionally there is contact between them.” For the first time in their meeting, Gao raised both hands, extended his index fingers, and tapped the sides of each together. “No one meant to contact the other—they are both intent on watching the ball in the air. Usually no one is hurt, play is continued, and a touchdown, and interception, or an incompletion results. It is when one player decides to intentionally play the man and not the ball that a penalty has taken place.”

“Our job is to make sure no one commits a foul.”

“Exactly, sir.” Gao smiled again, proud of the president accepting his football analogy. “Contact I believe is inevitable. America’s imperative is domination and control of the seas; China’s imperative is no obstacles to continued worldwide growth and prosperity. They appear to be conflicting. But contact does not have to lead to disaster.” He paused for a moment, then said, “May I ask, sir: What do you think of our proposal?”

“Complete demilitarization of the South China Sea?” Phoenix asked. “I’m all for it, Mr. Gao. But what do the bombers on Guam have to do with the South China Sea?”

“They can obviously patrol with ease over the South Sea,” Gao said, “and each represents significant firepower directed at China. Reducing their numbers on Guam to the level before the tensions began, six maximum, or at least withdrawing them to Hawaii, would go a long way to reducing tensions in the region.

“At the same time you withdraw the bombers, China will withdraw its two aircraft carrier battle groups and its helicopter carrier battle group to our territorial waters, which I mean within twelve nautical miles of the mainland,” Gao went on. “We will no longer patrol around the Paracel or Spratly Islands. We still reserve the right for our warships to transit the region, and port visits and exercises would not be protested if announced in advance, but we will not patrol it with surface vessels or submarines.”

“That is certainly a good start, sir,” Phoenix commented, the surprise on his face obvious. “What about air patrols?”

“We still reserve the right to conduct air patrols of the South China Sea,” Gao said, “but they will be conducted solely for reconnaissance, customs and fisheries, and search and rescue, and the aircraft will be unarmed. We would like to see the United States use patrol aircraft other than B-1 bombers or P-8 Poseidon aircraft, because they can be armed with offensive weapons, but if you guarantee that the aircraft will be unarmed, and we are allowed to visually inspect them for verification on a short-notice basis, that will be sufficient. Of course, China will continue to research the ecological damage to the South China Sea and pay any cleanup or restoration costs, as well as costs associated with recovering the Taiwanese submarine and repairing the Vietnamese warship.” There was a rather long silence, then: “Naturally, in the spirit of cooperation, we expect the United States to follow all these guidelines as well,” he said.

“I will certainly discuss this at length with my national security staff, Mr. Gao,” Phoenix said, “but it sounds very promising. I would like to see details, of course, but I think this is a very good place to start.”

“Excellent,” Gao said. “I will have Foreign Minister Tang, Defense Minister Cao, and General Zu draw up details. The plan will need to be ratified by the Central Military Committee and the Politburo, but I think you can expect swift agreement.” Gao got to his feet. “Now I must go.”

Phoenix stood, somewhat surprised. “We haven’t talked about Taiwan or the disputed islands in the South China Sea, Mr. Gao,” he said.

“It must wait for another time, I am afraid,” Gao said. “But I will say this: they belong to the People’s Republic of China.” He looked at Phoenix’s suddenly stony expression. “I know you do not accept this. You believe the South Sea belongs to the entire world and that Taiwan should be an independent country, but those are not the views of my government or most of my people. These issues will someday be resolved.” He tapped his forefingers together again. “Contact, infrequent and not deliberate, but no penalties. That is our mission.” Gao gave Phoenix a slight bow of his head, and they shook hands. “Thank you for receiving me today, Mr. President. Good-bye.” The door of the Oval Office was opened from outside by a Secret Service agent, and Gao departed.

Phoenix returned to his desk, and Vice President Ann Page entered the Oval Office a few moments later. “How did it go?” she asked.

“Very well,” Phoenix said. “What an interesting meeting. He doesn’t sound at all like any Chinese politicians I’ve ever listened to. He’s part of the new breed of politicians, probably the first generation that didn’t fight in a civil war or was subjected to a cultural revolution. Did you read his proposal on demilitarizing the South China Sea?”

“Yes,” Ann said. “I think it’s a big step in the right direction.”

“I hate to pull those extra B-1s from Guam,” Phoenix said. “But, unfortunately, our good buddy Patrick McLanahan got in China’s face, and I think withdrawing some of those planes and going down to a maximum of six long-range bombers on Guam at any one time will go a long way to defusing tensions out there.”

“I feel we’re giving up too much, but I agree: I don’t think things will get better if we keep the status quo,” Ann said.

“Very good,” Phoenix said. “Let’s get a meeting set up with the national security staff and the congressional leadership, and we’ll look at that proposal. I’ll give Patrick and the colonel in charge of that task force a heads-up that they should start packing up some of their bombers for a flight home.”