Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

7. Economic backwardness of Arab countries: Lewis 2002; United Nations Development Programme 2003.

8. Education leads to peace: Hegre et al. 2011; Thyne 2006. Education leads to democracy: Glaeser, Ponzetto, & Shleifer 2007; Hafer 2017; Lutz, Cuaresma, & Abbasi-Shavazi 2010; Rindermann 2008.

9. Youth bulges and violence: Potts & Hayden 2008.

10. Education reduces racism, sexism, homophobia: Rindermann 2008; Teixeira et al. 2013; Welzel 2013.

11. Education increases respect for free speech and imagination: Welzel 2013.

12. Education and civic engagement: Hafer 2017; OECD 2015a; Ortiz-Ospina & Roser 2016c; World Bank 2012b.

13. Education and trust: Ortiz-Ospina & Roser 2016c.

14. Roser & Ortiz-Ospina 2016b, based on data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics, visualized at World Bank 2016a.

15. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, visualized at World Bank 2016i.

16. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, http://data.uis.unesco.org/.

17. On the relationship between literacy and basic education, see van Leeuwen & van Leewen-Li 2014, pp. 88–93.

18. Lutz, Butz, & Samir 2014, based on models from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/, summarized in Nagdy & Roser 2016c.

19. Ecclesiastes 12:12.

20. Soaring premium for education: Autor 2014.

21. American high school attendance in 1920 and 1930: Leon 2016. Graduation rate in 2011: A. Duncan, “Why I Wear 80,” Huffington Post, Feb. 14, 2014. High school graduates in college in 2016: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017.

22. United States Census Bureau 2016.

23. Nagdy & Roser 2016c, based on models from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/; Lutz, Butz, & Samir 2014.

24. S. F. Reardon, J. Waldfogel, & D. Bassok, “The Good News About Educational Inequality,” New York Times, Aug. 26, 2016.

25. Effects of girls’ education: Deaton 2013; Nagdy & Roser 2016c; Radelet 2015.

26. United Nations 2015b.

27. Since the first data point for Afghanistan precedes the reign of the Taliban by fifteen years and the second one postdates it by a decade, the gain cannot simply be attributed to the 2001 NATO invasion that deposed the regime.

28. The Flynn effect: Deary 2001; Flynn 2007, 2012. See also Pinker 2011, pp. 650–60.

29. Heritability of intelligence: Pinker 2002/2016, chap. 19 and afterword; Deary 2001; Plomin & Deary 2015; Ritchie 2015.

30. Flynn effect not explained by hybrid vigor: Flynn 2007; Pietschnig & Voracek 2015.

31. Flynn effect meta-analysis: Pietschnig & Voracek 2015.

32. End of the Flynn effect: Pietschnig & Voracek 2015.

33. Evaluating candidate causes of the Flynn effect: Flynn 2007; Pietschnig & Voracek 2015.

34. Nutrition and health explain only part of Flynn effect: Flynn 2007, 2012; Pietschnig & Voracek 2015.

35. Existence and heritability of g: Deary 2001; Plomin & Deary 2015; Ritchie 2015.

36. The Flynn effect as an increase in analytic thinking: Flynn 2007, 2012; Ritchie 2015; Pinker 2011, pp. 650–60.

37. Education affects the Flynn components of intelligence (though not g): Ritchie, Bates, & Deary 2015.

38. IQ as a tailwind: Deary 2001; Gottfredson 1997; Makel et al. 2016; Pinker 2002/2016; Ritchie 2015.

39. The Flynn effect and the moral sense: Flynn 2007; Pinker 2011, pp. 656–70.

40. The Flynn effect and real-world genius: con, Woodley, te Nijenhuis, & Murphy 2013; pro, Pietschnig & Voracek 2015, p. 283.

41. High-tech in the developing world: Diamandis & Kotler 2012; Kenny 2011; Radelet 2015.

42. Benefits of IQ growth: Hafer 2017.

43. Progress as a hidden variable: Land, Michalos, & Sirgy 2012; Prados de la Escosura 2015; van Zanden et al. 2014; Veenhoven 2010.

44. Human Development Index: United Nations Development Programme 2016. Inspirations: Sen 1999; ul Haq 1996.

45. Catching up: Prados de la Escosura 2015, p. 222, counting “the West” as OECD countries prior to 1994, namely the countries of Western Europe and the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. He also notes that the index for sub-Saharan Africa in 2007 was .22, equivalent to the world in the 1950s and the OECD countries in the 1890s. Similarly, the Well-Being Composite for sub-Saharan Africa was approximately –.3 in 2000 (it would be higher today), similar to the world around 1910 and Western Europe around 1875.

46. For details and qualifications, see Rijpma 2014 and Prados de la Escosura 2015.

CHAPTER 17: QUALITY OF LIFE

1. The intellectuals and the masses: Carey 1993.

2. Variously attributed to a Jewish joke, a vaudeville routine, and a dialogue from the Broadway play Ballyhoo of 1932.

3. Capabilities: Nussbaum 2000.

4. Processing time for food: Laudan 2016.

5. Shorter work hours: Roser 2016t, based on data from Huberman & Minns 2007; see also Tupy 2016, and “Hours Worked Per Worker,” HumanProgress, http://humanprogress.org/f1/2246, for data showing a reduction of 7.2 hours of work per week worldwide.

6. Housel 2013.

7. Quoted in Weaver 1987, p. 505.

8. Productivity and shorter hours: Roser 2016t. Fewer poorer seniors: Deaton 2013, p. 180. Note that the absolute percentage of people in poverty depends on how “poverty” is defined; compare, for example, figure 9-6.

9. Data on paid vacations in America summarized in Housel 2013, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10. Data for the UK; calculation by Jesse Ausubel, graphed at http://www.humanprogress.org/static/3261.

11. Trends in working hours in selected developing countries: Roser 2016t.

12. Declining time needed to purchase appliances: M. Tupy, “Cost of Living and Wage Stagnation in the United States, 1979–2015,” HumanProgress, https://www.cato.org/projects/humanprogress/cost-of-living; Greenwood, Seshadri, & Yorukoglu 2005.

13. Least-preferred pastime: Kahneman et al. 2004. Time spent on housework: Greenwood, Seshadri, & Yorukoglu 2005; Roser 2016t.

14. “Time Spent on Laundry,” HumanProgress, http://humanprogress.org/static/3264, based on S. Skwire, “How Capitalism Has Killed Laundry Day,” CapX, April 11, 2016, http://capx.co/external/capitalism-has-helped-liberate-the-housewife/, and data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15. Not to be missed: H. Rosling, “The Magic Washing Machine,” TED talk, Dec. 2010, https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing_machine.

16. Good Housekeeping, vol. 55, no. 4, Oct. 1912, p. 436, quoted in Greenwood, Seshadri, & Yorukoglu 2005.

17. From The Wealth of Nations.

18. Falling price of light: Nordhaus 1996.

19. Kelly 2016, p. 189.

20. “Yuppie kvetching”: Daniel Hamermesh and Jungmin Lee, quoted in E. Kolbert, “No Time,” New Yorker, May 26, 2014. Trends in leisure, 1965–2003: Aguiar & Hurst 2007. Leisure hours in 2015: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016c. See the caption to figure 17-6 for more details.

21. More leisure for Norwegians: Aguiar & Hurst 2007, p. 1001, note 24. More leisure for Britons: Ausubel & Grübler 1995.

22. Always rushed? Robinson 2013; J. Robinson, “Happiness Means Being Just Rushed Enough,” Scientific American, Feb. 19, 2013.

23. Family dinners in 1969 and 1999: K. Bowman, “The Family Dinner Is Alive and Well,” New York Times, Aug. 29, 1999. Family dinners in 2014: J. Hook, “WSJ/NBC Poll Suggests Social Media Aren’t Replacing Direct Interactions,” Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2014. Gallup poll: L. Saad, “Most U.S. Families Still Routinely Dine Together at Home,” Gallup, Dec. 23, 2013, http://www.gallup.com/poll/166628/families-routinely-dine-together-home.aspx?g_source=family%20and%20dinner&g_medium=search&g_campaign=tiles. Fischer 2011 comes to a similar conclusion.

24. Parents spend more time with their children: Sayer, Bianchi, & Robinson 2004; see also notes 25–27 below.

25. Parents and children: Caplow, Hicks, & Wattenberg 2001, pp. 88–89.

26. Mothers and children: Coontz 1992/2016, p. 24.

27. Increased child care, decreased leisure: Aguiar & Hurst 2007, pp. 980–82.

28. Electronic versus face-to-face contact: Susan Pinker 2014.

29. Pork and starch: N. Irwin, “What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation? A Brief Guided Tour,” New York Times, May 13, 2016. See also D. Thompson, “America in 1915: Long Hours, Crowded Houses, Death by Trolley,” The Atlantic, Feb. 11, 2016.

30. Grocery items, 1920s–1980s: N. Irwin, “What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation? A Brief Guided Tour,” New York Times, May 13, 2016. Items in 2015: Food Marketing Institute 2017.

31. Loneliness and boredom: Bettmann 1974, pp. 62–63.

32. Newspapers and saloons: N. Irwin, “What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation? A Brief Guided Tour,” New York Times, May 13, 2016.

33. Accuracy of Wikipedia: Giles 2005; Greenstein & Zhu 2014; Kräenbring et al. 2014.

CHAPTER 18: HAPPINESS

1. Transcribed and lightly edited from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8LaT5Iiwo4 and other Internet clips.

2. Mueller 1999, p. 14.

3. Easterlin 1973.

4. Hedonic treadmill: Brickman & Campbell 1971.

5. Social comparison theory: See chapter 9, note 11; Kelley & Evans 2016.

6. G. Monbiot, “Neoliberalism Is Creating Loneliness. That’s What’s Wrenching Society Apart,” The Guardian, Oct. 12, 2016.

7. Axial Age and origin of deepest questions: Goldstein 2013. Philosophy and history of happiness: Haidt 2006; Haybron 2013; McMahon 2006. Science of happiness: Gilbert 2006; Haidt 2006; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Layard 2005; Roser 2017.

8. Human capabilities: Nussbaum 2000, 2008; Sen 1987, 1999.

9. Choosing what doesn’t make you happy: Gilbert 2006.

10. Freedom makes people happy: Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Inglehart et al. 2008.

11. Freedom makes life meaningful: Baumeister, Vohs, et al. 2013.

12. Validity of happiness reports: Gilbert 2006; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Layard 2005.

13. Experience versus evaluation of happiness: Baumeister, Vohs, et al. 2013; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Kahneman 2011; Veenhoven 2010.

14. Context-sensitivity of ratings happiness versus satisfaction versus good life: Deaton 2011; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Veenhoven 2010. Just average them: Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Kelley & Evans 2016; Stevenson & Wolfers 2009.

15. Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016, p. 4, table 2.1, pp. 16, 18.

16. Eudaemonia or meaningfulness: Baumeister, Vohs, et al. 2013; Haybron 2013; McMahon 2006; R. Baumeister, “The Meanings of Life,” Aeon, Sept. 16, 2013.

17. Adaptive function of happiness: Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 6. Different adaptive functions of happiness and meaningfulness: R. Baumeister, “The Meanings of Life,” Aeon, Sept. 16, 2013.

18. Percent happy: cited in Ipsos 2016; see also Veenhoven 2010. Average ladder placement: 5.4 on a 1–10 scale, Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016, p. 3.

19. Happiness gap: Ipsos 2016.

20. Money does buy happiness: Deaton 2013; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Inglehart et al. 2008; Stevenson & Wolfers 2008a; Roser 2017.

21. Independence of happiness and inequality: Kelley & Evans 2016.

22. Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016, pp. 12–13.

23. Winning the lottery: Stephens-Davidowitz 2017, p. 229.

24. National happiness increases over time: Sacks, Stevenson, & Wolfers 2012; Stevenson & Wolfers 2008a; Stokes 2007; Veenhoven 2010; Roser 2017.

25. World Values Survey shows increasing happiness: Inglehart et al. 2008.

26. Happiness, health, and freedom: Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Inglehart et al. 2008; Veenhoven 2010.

27. Culture and happiness: Inglehart et al. 2008.

28. Non-monetary contributors to happiness: Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016.

29. American happiness: Deaton 2011; Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016; Inglehart et al. 2008; Sacks, Stevenson, & Wolfers 2012; Smith, Son, & Schapiro 2015.

30. World Happiness Report 2016 rankings: 1. Denmark (7.5 rungs up from the worst possible life); 2. Switzerland; 3. Iceland; 4. Norway; 5. Finland; 6. Canada; 7. Netherlands; 8. New Zealand; 9. Australia; 10. Sweden; 11. Israel; 12. Austria; 13. United States; 14. Costa Rica; 15. Puerto Rico. The unhappiest countries are Benin, Afghanistan, Togo, Syria, and Burundi (157th place, 2.9 rungs up from the worst possible life).

31. American happiness: A fall and rise is seen in the World Database of Happiness (Veenhoven undated), which includes data from the World Values Survey; see the online appendix to Inglehart et al. 2008. A slight decline is seen in the General Social Survey (gss.norc.org); see Smith, Son, & Schapiro 2015 and figure 18-4 in this chapter, which plots the “Very happy” trend.

32. Restriction of range in American happiness: Deaton 2011.

33. Inequality as part of the explanation for the American happiness stagnation: Sacks, Stevenson, & Wolfers 2012.

34. America as a happiness trend outlier: Inglehart et al. 2008; Sacks, Stevenson, & Wolfers 2012.

35. African American happiness increase: Stevenson & Wolfers 2009; Twenge, Sherman, & Lyubomirsky 2016.

36. Declining female happiness: Stevenson & Wolfers 2009.

37. Distinguishing age, period, and cohort: Costa & McCrae 1982; Smith 2008.

38. Older people are happier overall: Deaton 2011; Smith, Son, & Schapiro 2015; Sutin et al. 2013.

39. Dips in middle age and in the final years: Bardo, Lynch, & Land, 2017; Fukuda 2013.

40. Great Recession trough: Bardo, Lynch, & Land 2017.

41. Each successive cohort happier through the Baby Boomers: Sutin et al. 2013.

42. Gen X and Millennials happier than Baby Boomers: Bardo, Lynch, & Land 2017; Fukuda 2013; Stevenson & Wolfers 2009; Twenge, Sherman, & Lyubomirsky 2016.

43. Loneliness, longevity, and health: Susan Pinker 2014.

44. Both quotes are from Fischer 2011, p. 110.

45. Fischer 2011, p. 114. See also Susan Pinker 2014, for a judicious analysis of the changes and constancies.

46. Fischer 2011, p. 114. Fischer cites “a few sources of social support” in full awareness of a highly publicized 2006 report which announced that from 1985 to 2004 Americans reported a third fewer people with whom they could discuss important matters, with a quarter of them saying they had no one at all. He concluded that the result was an artifact of the survey methods: Fischer 2006.

47. Fischer 2011, p. 112.

48. Hampton, Rainie, et al. 2015.

49. Connectedness of social media users: Hampton, Goulet, et al. 2011.

50. Stress in social media users: Hampton, Rainie, et al. 2015.

51. Changes and constancies in social interaction: Fischer 2005, 2011; Susan Pinker 2014.

52. Suicide rates depend on availability of methods: Miller, Azrael, & Barber 2012; Thomas & Gunnell 2010.

53. Risk factors for suicide: Ortiz-Ospina, Lee, & Roser 2016; World Health Organization 2016d.

54. Happiness-suicide paradox: Daly et al. 2010.

55. US suicides in 2014 (42,773, to be exact): Data from National Vital Statistics, Kochanek et al. 2016, table B. World suicides in 2012: Data from World Health Organization, Värnik 2012 and World Health Organization 2016d.

56. Female suicide decline: “Female Suicide Rate, OECD,” HumanProgress, HumanProgress.org/story/2996/.

57. Suicide by age and period for England: Thomas & Gunnell 2010. Suicide by age, cohort, and period for Switzerland: Ajdacic-Gross et al. 2006. For the United States: Phillips 2014.

58. Falling adolescent suicide rates: Costello, Erkanli, & Angold 2006; Twenge 2014.

59. Negative spin on suicide figures: M. Nock, “Five Myths About Suicide,” Washington Post, May 6, 2016.

60. Eisenhower and Swedish suicide: http://fed.wiki.org/journal.hapgood.net/eisenhower-on-sweden.

61. Suicide rates for 1960 are from Ortiz-Ospina, Lee, & Roser 2016. Suicide rates for 2012 (age-adjusted) are from World Health Organization 2017b.

62. Medium suicide rates in Western Europe: Värnik 2012, p. 768. Decline of Swedish suicide: Ohlander 2010.

63. Generational increase in depression: Lewinsohn et al. 1993.

64. Triggers for PTSD: McNally 2016.

65. Expanding empire of psychopathology: Haslam 2016; Horwitz & Wakefield 2007; McNally 2016; PLOS Medicine Editors 2013.

66. R. Rosenberg, “Abnormal Is the New Normal,” Slate, April 12, 2013, based on Kessler et al. 2005.

67. Expanding concepts of harm as moral progress: Haslam 2016.

68. Evidence-based psychological treatment: Barlow et al. 2013.

69. Global burden of depression: Murray et al. 2012. Adult risks: Kessler et al. 2003.

70. The paradox of mental health: PLOS Medicine Editors 2013.

71. Lack of gold standard: Twenge 2014.

72. No rise in depression over a century: Mattisson et al. 2005; Murphy et al. 2000.

73. Twenge et al. 2010.

74. Twenge & Nolen-Hoeksema 2002: Between 1980 and 1998, successive cohorts of Generation X and Millennial boys aged 8–16 became less depressed, with no change in the girls. Twenge 2014: Between the 1980s and the 2010s, teenagers had fewer suicidal thoughts; college students and adults were less likely to report they were depressed. Olfson, Druss, & Marcus 2015: Rates of mental illness in children and adolescents fell.

75. Costello, Erkanli, & Angold 2006.

76. Baxter et al. 2014.

77. Jacobs 2011.

78. Baxter et al. 2014; Twenge 2014; Twenge et al. 2010.

79. Stein’s Law and anxiety: Sage 2010.

80. Terracciano 2010; Trzesniewski & Donnellan 2010.

81. Baxter et al. 2014.

82. For example, “Depression as a Disease of Modernity: Explanations for Increasing Prevalence,” Hidaka 2012.

83. Stevenson & Wolfers 2009.

84. Excerpted from the book version: Allen 1987, pp. 131–33.

85. Johnston & Davey 1997; see also Jackson 2016; Otieno, Spada, & Renkl 2013; Unz, Schwab, & Winterhoff-Spurk 2008.

86. Statement: Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation 2000. “So-called climate crisis”: Cornwall Alliance, “Sin, Deception, and the Corruption of Science: A Look at the So-Called Climate Crisis,” 2016, http://cornwallalliance.org/2016/07/sin-deception-and-the-corruption-of-science-a-look-at-the-so-called-climate-crisis/. See also Bean & Teles 2016; L. Vox, “Why Don’t Christian Conservatives Worry About Climate Change? God,” Washington Post, June 2, 2017.

87. Garbage barge: M. Winerip, “Retro Report: Voyage of the Mobro 4000,” New York Times, May 6, 2013.

88. Environmental friendliness of landfills: J. Tierney, “The Reign of Recycling,” New York Times, Oct. 3, 2015. The New York Times “Retro Report” series, including the story cited in the preceding note, is an exception to the lack of follow-ups on crisis reporting.

89. Boredom crisis: Nisbet 1980/2009, pp. 349–51. The two main alarmists were scientists: Dennis Gabor and Harlow Shapley.

90. See the references in notes 15 and 16 above.

91. Anxiety over the life cycle: Baxter et al. 2014.

CHAPTER 19: EXISTENTIAL THREATS

1. Mythical missile gap: Berry et al. 2010; Preble 2004.

2. Nuclear retaliation for cyberattacks: Sagan 2009c, p. 164. See also the comments from Keith Payne reproduced in P. Sonne, G. Lubold, & C. E. Lee, “‘No First Use’ Nuclear Policy Proposal Assailed by U.S. Cabinet Officials, Allies,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 12, 2016.

3. K. Bird, “How to Keep an Atomic Bomb from Being Smuggled into New York City? Open Every Suitcase with a Screwdriver,” New York Times, Aug. 5, 2016.

4. Randle & Eckersley 2015.

5. Quoted on the home page for Ocean Optimism, http://www.oceanoptimism.org/about/.

6. 2012 Ipsos poll: C. Michaud, “One in Seven Thinks End of World Is Coming: Poll,” Reuters, May 1, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mayancalendar-poll-idUSBRE8400XH20120501. The rate for the United States was 22 percent, and in a 2015 YouGov poll, 31 percent: http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/i7p20mektl/toplines_OPI_disaster_20150227.pdf.

7. Power-law distributions: Johnson et al. 2006; Newman 2005; see Pinker 2011, pp. 210–22, for a review. See the references in note 17 of chapter 11 for an explanation of the complexities in estimating the risks from the data.

8. Overestimating the probability of extreme risks: Pinker 2011, pp. 368–73.

9. End-of-the-world predictions: “Doomsday Forecasts,” The Economist, Oct. 7, 2015, http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/predicting-end-world.

10. Apocalyptic movies: “List of Apocalyptic Films,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_apocalyptic_films, retrieved Dec. 15, 2016.

11. Quoted in Ronald Bailey, “Everybody Loves a Good Apocalypse,” Reason, Nov. 2015.

12. Y2K bug: M. Winerip, “Revisiting Y2K: Much Ado About Nothing?” New York Times, May 27, 2013.

13. G. Easterbrook, “We’re All Gonna Die!” Wired, July 1, 2003.

14. P. Ball, “Gamma-Ray Burst Linked to Mass Extinction,” Nature, Sept. 24, 2003.

15. Denkenberger & Pearce 2015.

16. Rosen 2016.

17. D. Cox, “NASA’s Ambitious Plan to Save Earth from a Supervolcano,” BBC Future, Aug. 17, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170817-nasas-ambitious-plan-to-save-earth-from-a-supervolcano.

18. Deutsch 2011, p. 207.

19. “More dangerous than nukes”: Tweeted in Aug. 2014, quoted in A. Elkus, “Don’t Fear Artificial Intelligence,” Slate, Oct. 31, 2014. “End of the human race”: Quoted in R. Cellan-Jones, “Stephen Hawking Warns Artificial Intelligence Could End Mankind,” BBC News, Dec. 2, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540.

20. In a 2014 poll of the hundred most-cited AI researchers, just 8 percent feared that high-level AI posed the threat of “an existential catastrophe”: Müller & Bostrom 2014. AI experts who are publicly skeptical include Paul Allen (2011), Rodney Brooks (2015), Kevin Kelly (2017), Jaron Lanier (2014), Nathan Myhrvold (2014), Ramez Naam (2010), Peter Norvig (2015), Stuart Russell (2015), and Roger Schank (2015). Skeptical psychologists and biologists include Roy Baumeister (2015), Dylan Evans (2015a), Gary Marcus (2015), Mark Pagel (2015), and John Tooby (2015). See also A. Elkus, “Don’t Fear Artificial Intelligence,” Slate, Oct. 31, 2014; M. Chorost, “Let Artificial Intelligence Evolve,” Slate, April 18, 2016.

21. Modern scientific understanding of intelligence: Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 2; Kelly 2017.

22. Foom: Hanson & Yudkowsky 2008.

23. The technology expert Kevin Kelly (2017) recently made the same argument.

24. Intelligence as a contraption: Brooks 2015; Kelly 2017; Pinker 1997/2009, 2007a; Tooby 2015.

25. AI doesn’t progress by Moore’s Law: Allen 2011; Brooks 2015; Deutsch 2011; Kelly 2017; Lanier 2014; Naam 2010. Many of the commentators in Lanier 2014 and Brockman 2015 make this point as well.

26. AI researchers vs. AI hype: Brooks 2015; Davis & Marcus 2015; Kelly 2017; Lake et al. 2017; Lanier 2014; Marcus 2016; Naam 2010; Schank 2015. See also note 25 above.

27. Shallowness and brittleness of current AI: Brooks 2015; Davis & Marcus 2015; Lanier 2014; Marcus 2016; Schank 2015.

28. Naam 2010.

29. Robots turning us into paper clips and other Value Alignment Problems: Bostrom 2016; Hanson & Yudkowsky 2008; Omohundro 2008; Yudkowsky 2008; P. Torres, “Fear Our New Robot Overlords: This Is Why You Need to Take Artificial Intelligence Seriously,” Salon, May 14, 2016.

30. Why we won’t be turned into paper clips: B. Hibbard, “Reply to AI Risk,” http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/AIRisk_Reply.html; R. Loosemore, “The Maverick Nanny with a Dopamine Drip: Debunking Fallacies in the Theory of AI Motivation,” Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, July 24, 2014, http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/loosemore20140724; A. Elkus, “Don’t Fear Artificial Intelligence,” Slate, Oct. 31, 2014; R. Hanson, “I Still Don’t Get Foom,” Humanity+, July 29, 2014, http://hplusmagazine.com/2014/07/29/i-still-dont-get-foom/; Hanson & Yudkowsky 2008. See also Kelly 2017, and notes 26 and 27 above.

31. Quoted in J. Bohannon, “Fears of an AI Pioneer,” Science, July 17, 2016.

32. Quoted in Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2015.

33. Self-driving cars not quite ready: Brooks 2016.

34. Robots and jobs: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2016; see also chapter 9, notes 67 and 68.

35. The bet is registered on the “Long Bets” Web site, http://longbets.org/9/.

36. Improving computer security: Schneier 2008; B. Schneier, “Lessons from the Dyn DDoS Attack,” Schneier on Security, Nov. 1, 2016, https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2016/11/lessons_from_the_dyn.html.

37. Strengthening bioweapon security: Bradford Project on Strengthening the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, http://www.bradford.ac.uk/acad/sbtwc/.

38. Protection against infectious disease protects against bioterrorism: Carlson 2010. Preparing for pandemics: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “Preparing for Pandemics,” http://nyti.ms/256CNNc; World Health Organization 2016b.

39. Standard antiterrorist measures: Mueller 2006, 2010a; Mueller & Stewart 2016a; Schneier 2008.

40. Kelly 2010, 2013.

41. Personal communication, May 21, 2017; see also Kelly 2013, 2016.

42. Easy to commit murder and mayhem: Brandwen 2016.

43. Brandwen 2016 lists several real-life examples of product sabotage with damage ranging from $150 million to $1.5 billion.

44. B. Schneier, “Where Are All the Terrorist Attacks?” Schneier on Security, https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2010/05/where_are_all_the_te.html. Similar points: Mueller 2004b; M. Abrahms, “A Few Bad Men: Why America Doesn’t Really Have a Terrorist Problem,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2013.

45. Most terrorists are schlemiels: Mueller 2006; Mueller & Stewart 2016a, chap. 4; Brandwen 2016; M. Abrahms, “Does Terrorism Work as a Political Strategy? The Evidence Says No,” Los Angeles Times, April 1, 2016; J. Mueller & M. Stewart, “Hapless, Disorganized, and Irrational: What the Boston Bombers Had in Common with Most Would-Be Terrorists,” Slate, April 22, 2013; D. Kenner, “Mr. Bean to Jihadi John,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 1, 2014.

46. D. Adnan & T. Arango, “Suicide Bomb Trainer in Iraq Accidentally Blows Up His Class,” New York Times, Feb. 10, 2014.

47. “Suicide Bomber Hid IED in His Anal Cavity,” Homeland Security News Wire, Sept. 9, 2009, http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/saudi-suicide-bomber-hid-ied-his-anal-cavity.

48. Terrorism is ineffective: Abrahms 2006, 2012; Brandwen 2016; Cronin 2009; Fortna 2015; Mueller 2006; Mueller & Stewart 2010; see also note 45 above. IQ is negatively correlated with criminality and psychopathy: Beaver, Schwartz, et al. 2013; Beaver, Vauhgn, et al. 2012; de Ribera, Kavish, & Boutwell 2017.

49. Hazards of larger terrorist plots: Mueller 2006.

50. Serious cybercrime requires a state: B. Schneier, “Someone Is Learning How to Take Down the Internet,” Lawfare, Sept. 13, 2016.

51. Skepticism about cyberwar: Lawson 2013; Mueller & Friedman 2014; Rid 2012; B. Schneier, “Threat of ‘Cyberwar’ Has Been Hugely Hyped,” CNN.com, July 7, 2010, http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/07/07/schneier.cyberwar.hyped/; E. Morozov, “Cyber-Scare: The Exaggerated Fears over Digital Warfare,” Boston Review, July/Aug. 2009; E. Morozov, “Battling the Cyber Warmongers,” Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2010; R. Singel, “Cyberwar Hype Intended to Destroy the Open Internet,” Wired, March 1, 2010; R. Singel, “Richard Clarke’s Cyberwar: File Under Fiction,” Wired, April 22, 2010; P. W. Singer, “The Cyber Terror Bogeyman,” Brookings, Nov. 1, 2012, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-cyber-terror-bogeyman/.

52. From Schneier’s article cited in the preceding note.

53. Resilience: Lawson 2013; Quarantelli 2008.

54. Quarantelli 2008, p. 899.

55. Societies don’t collapse under disasters: Lawson 2013; Quarantelli 2008.

56. Modern societies are resilient: Lawson 2013.

57. Biological warfare and terrorism: Ewald 2000; Mueller 2006.

58. Terrorism as theater: Abrahms 2006; Brandwen 2016; Cronin 2009; Ewald 2000; Y. N. Harari, “The Theatre of Terror,” The Guardian, Jan. 31, 2015.

59. Evolution of virulence and contagion: Ewald 2000; Walther & Ewald 2004.

60. Rarity of bioterrorism: Mueller 2006; Parachini 2003.

61. Difficulty of designing a pathogen even with gene-editing: Paul Ewald, personal communication, Dec. 27, 2016.

62. Comment in Kelly 2013, summarizing arguments in Carlson 2010.

63. New antibiotics: Meeske et al. 2016; Murphy, Zeng, & Herzon 2017; Seiple et al. 2016. Identifying potentially hazardous pathogens: Walther & Ewald 2004.

64. Ebola vaccine: Henao-Restrepo et al. 2017. False predictions of catastrophic pandemics: Norberg 2016; Ridley 2010; M. Ridley, “Apocalypse Not: Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Worry About End Times,” Wired, Aug. 17, 2012; D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, “When Reportage Turns to Cynicism,” New York Times, Nov. 14, 2016.

65. Bet on bioterror with Martin Rees: http://longbets.org/9/.

66. Reviews of nuclear weapons today: Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014; Federation of American Scientists (undated); Rhodes 2010; Scoblic 2010.

67. World’s nuclear stockpile: Kristensen & Norris 2016a; see also note 113 below.

68. Nuclear winter: Robock & Toon 2012; A. Robock & O. B. Toon, “Let’s End the Peril of a Nuclear Winter,” New York Times, Feb. 11, 2016. History of nuclear winter/autumn controversy: Morton 2015.

69. Doomsday Clock: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2017.

70. Eugene Rabinowitch, quoted in Mueller 2010a, p. 26.

71. Doomsday Clock: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “A Timeline of Conflict, Culture, and Change,” Nov. 13, 2013, http://thebulletin.org/multimedia/timeline-conflict-culture-and-change.

72. Quoted in Mueller 1989, p. 98.

73. Quoted in Mueller 1989, p. 271, note 2.

74. Snow 1961, p. 259.

75. Address to the incoming graduate students, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, September 1976.

76. Quoted in Mueller 1989, p. 271, note 2.

77. Close call lists: Future of Life Institute 2017; Schlosser 2013; Union of Concerned Scientists 2015a.

78. Union of Concerned Scientists, “To Russia with Love,” http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/close-calls#.WGQC1lMrJEY.

79. Skepticism on close-call lists: Mueller 2010a; J. Mueller, “Fire, Fire (Review of E. Schlosser’s ‘Command and Control’),” Times Literary Supplement, March 7, 2014.

80. The Google Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams) indicates that in 2008 (the most recent year displayed) mentions of nuclear war in published books were outnumbered by mentions of racism, terrorism, and inequality tenfold to twentyfold. The Corpus of Contemporary American English (http://corpus.byu.edu/coca/) indicates that in American newspapers in 2015, nuclear war appeared 0.65 times per million words of text, compared with 13.13 times for inequality, 19.5/million for racism, and 30.93/million for terrorism.

81. Quotes taken from Morton 2015, p. 324.

82. Letter dated 17 April 2003 to the Security Council, written when he was the US representative to the UN, quoted in Mueller 2012.

83. Collection of terror predictions: Mueller 2012.

84. Warren B. Rudman, Stephen E. Flynn, Leslie H. Gelb, and Gary Hart, Dec. 16, 2004, reproduced in Mueller 2012.

85. Quoted in Boyer 1985/2005, p. 72.

86. Scare tactics backfiring: Boyer 1986.

87. From a 1951 editorial in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, quoted in Boyer 1986.

88. What motivates activism: Sandman & Valenti 1986. See chapter 10, note 55, for similar observations on climate change.

89. Quoted in Mueller 2016.

90. Quoted in Mueller 2016. The term nuclear metaphysics comes from the political scientist Robert Johnson.

91. Disarmament without treaties: Kristensen & Norris 2016a; Mueller 2010a.

92. Odds next to zero: Welch & Blight 1987–88, p. 27; see also Blight, Nye, & Welch 1987, p. 184; Frankel 2004; Mueller 2010a, pp. 38–40, p. 248, notes 31–33.

93. Nuclear safety features prevent accidents: Mueller 2010a, pp. 100–102; Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014, p. 56; J. Mueller, “Fire, Fire (Review of E. Schlosser’s ‘Command and Control’),” Times Literary Supplement, March 7, 2014. Note that the common claim that the Soviet navy officer Vasili Arkhipov “saved the world” during the Cuban Missile Crisis by overruling an embattled submarine captain who was about to fire a nuclear-tipped torpedo at American ships is cast in doubt by Aleksandr Mozgovoi’s 2002 book Kubinskaya Samba Kvarteta Fokstrotov (Cuban Samba of the Quartet of Foxtrots), in which Vadim Pavlovich Orlov, a communications officer who took part in the events, reports that the captain had spontaneously backed off from his impulse: Mozgovoi 2002. Note as well that a single tactical weapon detonated at sea would not necessarily have escalated into all-out war; see Mueller 2010a, pp. 100–102.

94. Union of Concerned Scientists 2015a.

95. The history of chemical weapons after they were banned following World War I suggests that accidental and one-time uses don’t automatically lead to mutual escalation; see Pinker 2011, pp. 273–74.

96. Predictions of nuclear proliferation: Mueller 2010a, p. 90; T. Graham, “Avoiding the Tipping Point,” Arms Control Today, 2004, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_11/BookReview. Lack of proliferation: Bluth 2011; Sagan 2009b, 2010.

97. States that gave up nukes: Sagan 2009b, 2010, and personal communication, Dec. 30, 2016; see Pinker 2011, pp. 272–73.

98. Evans 2015b.

99. Quoted in Pinker 2013a.

100. Poison gas from airplanes: Mueller 1989. Geophysical warfare: Morton 2015, p. 136.

101. The USSR, not Hiroshima, made Japan surrender: Berry et al. 2010; Hasegawa 2006; Mueller 2010a; Wilson 2007.

102. Nobel to the nukes: Suggested by Elspeth Rostow, quoted in Pinker 2011, p. 268. Nuclear weapons are poor deterrents: Pinker 2011, p. 269; Berry et al. 2010; Mueller 2010a; Ray 1989.

103. Nuclear taboo: Mueller 1989; Sechser & Fuhrmann 2017; Tannenwald 2005; Ray 1989, pp. 429–31; Pinker 2011, chap. 5, “Is the Long Peace a Nuclear Peace?” pp. 268–78.

104. Effectiveness of conventional deterrence: Mueller 1989, 2010a.

105. Nuclear states and armed burglars: Schelling 1960.

106. Berry et al. 2010, pp. 7–8.

107. George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, & Sam Nunn, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 4, 2007; William Perry, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, & Sam Nunn, “Toward a Nuclear-Free World,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 15, 2008.

108. “Remarks by President Barack Obama in Prague as Delivered,” White House, April 5, 2009, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-prague-delivered.

109. United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (undated).

110. Public opinion on Global Zero: Council on Foreign Relations 2012.

111. Getting to zero: Global Zero Commission 2010.

112. Global Zero skeptics: H. Brown & J. Deutch, “The Nuclear Disarmament Fantasy,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19, 2007; Schelling 2009.

113. The Pentagon has reported that in 2015 the US nuclear stockpile contained 4,571 weapons (United States Department of Defense 2016). The Federation of American Scientists (Kristensen & Norris 2016b, updated in Kristensen 2016) estimates that about 1,700 of the warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles and at bomber bases, 180 consist of tactical bombs deployed in Europe, and the remaining 2,700 are kept in storage. (The term stockpile usually embraces both deployed and stored missiles, though sometimes it refers just to the stored ones.) In addition, approximately 2,340 warheads are retired and awaiting dismantlement.

114. A. E. Kramer, “Power for U.S. from Russia’s Old Nuclear Weapons,” New York Times, Nov. 9, 2009.

115. The Federation of American Scientists estimates the 2015 Russian stockpile at 4,500 warheads (Kristensen & Norris 2016b). New START: Woolf 2017.

116. Stockpile reductions will continue in tandem with modernization: Kristensen 2016.

117. Nuclear arsenals: Estimates from Kristensen 2016; they include warheads that are deployed or kept in storage and deployable; they exclude warheads that are retired, and bombs that cannot be deployed by the nation’s delivery platforms.

118. No imminent new nuclear states: Sagan 2009b, 2010, and personal communication, Dec. 30, 2016; see also Pinker 2011, pp. 272–73. Fewer states with fissile materials: “Sam Nunn Discusses Today’s Nuclear Risks,” Foreign Policy Association blogs, http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/04/06/sam-nunn-discusses-todays-nuclear-risks/.

119. Disarmament without treaties: Kristensen & Norris 2016a; Mueller 2010a.

120. GRIT: Osgood 1962.

121. Small arsenal, no nuclear winter: A. Robock & O. B. Toon, “Let’s End the Peril of a Nuclear Winter,” New York Times, Feb. 11, 2016. The authors recommend that the United States reduce its arsenal to 1,000 warheads, but they don’t say whether this would rule out the possibility of nuclear winter. The number 200 comes from a presentation by Robock at MIT, April 2, 2016, “Climatic Consequences of Nuclear War,” http://futureoflife.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Alan_Robock_MIT_April2.pdf.

122. No hair trigger: Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014, p. 56.

123. Against launch on warning: Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014; J. E. Cartwright & V. Dvorkin, “How to Avert a Nuclear War,” New York Times, April 19, 2015; B. Blair, “How Obama Could Revolutionize Nuclear Weapons Strategy Before He Goes,” Politico, June 22, 2016; Long fuse: Brown & Lewis 2013.

124. Takes nukes off “hair trigger”: Union of Concerned Scientists 2015b.

125. No First Use: Sagan 2009a; J. E. Cartwright & B. G. Blair, “End the First-Use Policy for Nuclear Weapons,” New York Times, Aug. 14, 2016. Rebuttals of arguments against No First Use: Global Zero Commission 2016; B. Blair, “The Flimsy Case Against No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons,” Politico, Sept. 28, 2016.

126. Incremental pledges: J. G. Lewis & S. D. Sagan, “The Common-Sense Fix That American Nuclear Policy Needs,” Washington Post, Aug. 24, 2016.

127. D. Sanger & W. J. Broad, “Obama Unlikely to Vow No First Use of Nuclear Weapons,” New York Times, Sept. 4, 2016.

CHAPTER 20: THE FUTURE OF PROGRESS

1. The data in these paragraphs come from chapters 5–19.

2. All declines calculated as a proportion of their 20th-century peaks.

3. For evidence that war in particular is not cyclical, see Pinker 2011, p. 207.

4. From the Review of Southey’s Colloquies on Society, quoted in Ridley 2010, chap. 1.

5. See the references at the end of chapters 8 and 16; here and here of chapter 10; here of chapter 15; and the discussion of the Easterlin paradox in chapter 18.

6. Average of the years 1961 through 1973; World Bank 2016c.

7. Average of the years 1974 through 2015; World Bank 2016c. Rates for the United States for these two periods are 3.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

8. Estimates are of Total Factor Productivity, taken from Gordon 2014, fig. 1.

9. Secular stagnation: Summers 2014b, 2016. For analysis and commentaries, see Teulings & Baldwin 2014.

10. No one knows: M. Levinson, “Every US President Promises to Boost Economic Growth. The Catch: No One Knows How,” Vox, Dec. 22, 2016; G. Ip, “The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 20, 2016; Teulings & Baldwin 2014.

11. Gordon 2014, 2016.

12. American complacency: Cowen 2017; Glaeser 2014; F. Erixon & B. Weigel, “Risk, Regulation, and the Innovation Slowdown,” Cato Policy Report, Sept./Oct. 2016; G. Ip, “The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 20, 2016.

13. World Bank 2016c. American GDP per capita has grown in all but eight of the past fifty-five years.

14. Sleeper effect in technological development: G. Ip, “The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 20, 2016; Eichengreen 2014.

15. Technologically driven age of abundance: Brand 2009; Bryce 2014; Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2016; Diamandis & Kotler 2012; Eichengreen 2014; Mokyr 2014; Naam 2013; Reese 2013.

16. Interview with Ezra Klein, “Bill Gates: The Energy Breakthrough That Will ‘Save Our Planet’ Is Less Than 15 Years Away,” Vox, Feb. 24, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/2/24/11100702/billgatesenergy. Gates casually alluded to the “‘peace breaks out’ book that was written in 1940.” I’m guessing he was referring to Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion, commonly misremembered as having predicted that war was impossible on the eve of World War I. In fact the pamphlet, first published in 1909, argued that war was unprofitable, not that it was obsolete.

17. Diamandis & Kotler 2012, p. 11.

18. Fossil power, guilt-free: Service 2017.

19. Jane Langdale, “Radical Ag: C4 Rice and Beyond,” Seminars About Long-Term Thinking, Long Now Foundation, March 14, 2016.

20. Second Machine Age: Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2016. See also Diamandis & Kotler 2012.

21. Mokyr 2014, p. 88; see also Feldstein 2017; T. Aeppel, “Silicon Valley Doesn’t Believe U.S. Productivity Is Down,” Wall Street Journal, July 16, 2016; K. Kelly, “The Post-Productive Economy,” The Technium, Jan. 1, 2013.

22. Demonetization: Diamandis & Kotler 2012.

23. G. Ip, “The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 20, 2016.

24. Authoritarian populism: Inglehart & Norris 2016; Norris & Inglehart 2016; see also chapter 23 in this book.

25. Norris & Inglehart 2016.

26. History of Trump through his election: J. Fallows, “The Daily Trump: Filling a Time Capsule,” The Atlantic, Nov. 20, 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/11/on-the-future-of-the-time-capsules/508268/. History of Trump in his first half-year as president: E. Levitz, “All the Terrifying Things That Donald Trump Did Lately,” New York, June 9, 2017.

27. “Donald Trump’s File,” PolitiFact, http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/. See also D. Dale, “Donald Trump: The Unauthorized Database of False Things,” The Star, Nov. 14, 2016, which lists 560 false claims he made in a span of two months, about twenty per day; M. Yglesias, “The Bullshitter-in-Chief,” Vox, May 30, 2017; and D. Leonhardt & S. A. Thompson, “Trump’s Lies,” New York Times, June 23, 2017.

28. Adapted from the science-fiction writer Philip K. Dick: “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.”

29. S. Kinzer, “The Enlightenment Had a Good Run,” Boston Globe, Dec. 23, 2016.

30. Obama approval: J. McCarthy, “President Obama Leaves White House with 58% Favorable Rating,” Gallup, Jan. 16, 2017, http://www.gallup.com/poll/202349/president-obama-leaves-white-house-favorable-rating.aspx. Farewell address: Obama referred to the “essential spirit of innovation and practical problem-solving that guided our Founders” that was “born of the Enlightenment” and which he defined as “a faith in reason, and enterprise, and the primacy of right over might” (“President Obama’s Farewell Address, Jan. 10, 2017,” The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/farewell).

31. Trump ratings: J. McCarthy, “Trump’s Pre-Inauguration Favorables Remain Historically Low,” Gallup, Jan. 16, 2017; “How Unpopular Is Donald Trump?” FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/; “Presidential Approval Ratings—Donald Trump,” Gallup, Aug. 25, 2017.

32. G. Aisch, A. Pearce, & B. Rousseau, “How Far Is Europe Swinging to the Right?” New York Times, Dec. 5, 2016. Of the twenty countries whose parliamentary elections were tracked, nine had an increase in the representation of right-wing parties since the preceding election, nine had a decrease, and two (Spain and Portugal) had no representation at all.

33. A. Chrisafis, “Emmanuel Macron Vows Unity After Winning French Presidential Election,” The Guardian, May 8, 2017.

34. US election exit poll data, New York Times 2016. N. Carnes & N. Lupu, “It’s Time to Bust the Myth: Most Trump Voters Were Not Working Class,” Washington Post, June 5, 2017. See also the references in notes 35 and 36 below.

35. N. Silver, “Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote for Trump,” FiveThirtyEight, Nov. 22, 2016, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/; N. Silver, “The Mythology of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support: His Voters Are Better Off Economically Compared with Most Americans,” FiveThirtyEight, May 3, 2016, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/. Confirmation from Gallup polls: J. Rothwell, “Economic Hardship and Favorable Views of Trump,” Gallup, July 22, 2016, http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/193898/economic-hardship-favorable-views-trump.aspx.

36. N. Silver, “Strongest correlate I’ve found for Trump support is Google searches for the n-word. Others have reported this too,” Twitter, https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/703975062500732932?lang=en; N. Cohn, “Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat,” New York Times, Dec. 31, 2015; Stephens-Davidowitz 2017. See also G. Lopez, “Polls Show Many—Even Most—Trump Supporters Really Are Deeply Hostile to Muslims and Nonwhites,” Vox, Sept. 12, 2016.

37. Exit poll data: New York Times 2016.

38. European populism: Inglehart & Norris 2016.

39. Inglehart & Norris 2016; based on their Model C, the one with the combination of best fit and fewest predictors, endorsed by the authors.

40. A. B. Guardia, “How Brexit Vote Broke Down,” Politico, June 24, 2016.

41. Inglehart & Norris 2016, p. 4.

42. Quoted in I. Lapowsky, “Don’t Let Trump’s Win Fool You—America’s Getting More Liberal,” Wired, Dec. 19, 2016.

43. Populist party representation in different countries: Inglehart & Norris 2016; G. Aisch, A. Pearce, & B. Rousseau, “How Far Is Europe Swinging to the Right?” New York Times, Dec. 5, 2016.

44. Tininess of the alt-right movement: Alexander 2016. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz notes that Google searches for “Stormfront,” the most prominent white nationalist Internet forum, have been in steady decline since 2008 (other than a few news-related blips).

45. Young liberal, old conservative meme: G. O’Toole, “If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain,” Quote Investigator, Feb. 24, 2014, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/; B. Popik, “If You’re Not a Liberal at 20 You Have No Heart, If Not a Conservative at 40 You Have No Brain,” BarryPopik.com, http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/if_youre_not_a_liberal_at_20_you_have_no_heart_if_not_a_conservative_at_40.

46. Ghitza & Gelman 2014; see also Kohut et al. 2011; Taylor 2016a, 2016b.

47. Based loosely on a quotation from the physicist Max Planck.

48. Voter turnout: H. Enten, “Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton the Election,” FiveThirtyEight, Jan. 5, 2017, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/. A. Payne, “Brits Who Didn’t Vote in the EU Referendum Now Wish They Voted Against Brexit,” Business Insider, Sept. 23, 2016. A. Rhodes, “Young People—If You’re So Upset by the Outcome of the EU Referendum, Then Why Didn’t You Get Out and Vote?” The Independent, June 27, 2016.

49. Publius Decius Mus 2016. In 2017, the author of the pseudonymous piece, Michael Anton, joined the Trump administration as a national security official.

50. C. R. Ketcham, “Anarchists for Donald Trump—Let the Empire Burn,” Daily Beast, June 9, 2016, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/09/anarchists-for-donald-trump-let-the-empire-burn.html.

51. A similar argument was made by D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, “When Reportage Turns to Cynicism,” New York Times, Nov. 15, 2016, quoted in chapter 4.

52. Berlin 1988/2013, p. 15.

53. Excerpt from a talk, shared in a personal communication; adapted from Kelly 2016, pp. 13–14.

54. “Pessimistic hopefulness” is from the journalist Yuval Levin (2017). “Radical incrementalism” is originally from the political scientist Aaron Wildavsky, recently revived by Halpern & Mason 2015.

55. The term possibilism had previously been coined by the economist Albert Hirschman (1971). Rosling was quoted in “Making Data Dance,” The Economist, Dec. 9, 2010.

CHAPTER 21: REASON

1. Recent examples (not from psychologists): J. Gray, “The Child-Like Faith in Reason,” BBC News Magazine, July 18, 2014; C. Bradatan, “Our Delight in Destruction,” New York Times, March 27, 2017.

2. Nagel 1997, pp. 14–15. “One can’t criticize something with nothing”: p. 20.

3. Transcendental arguments: Bardon (undated).

4. Nagel 1997, p. 35, attributes the phrase “One thought too many” to the philosopher Bernard Williams, who used it to make a different point. For more on why “believing in reason” is one thought too many, and why explicit deduction has to stop somewhere, see Pinker 1997/2009, pp. 98–99.

5. See the references in chapter 2, notes 22–25.

6. See the references in chapter 1, notes 4 and 9. Kant’s metaphor refers to the “unsocial sociability” of humans, who differ from trees in a crowded forest that grow straight to stay out of each other’s shadows. It has been interpreted as applying to reason insofar as humans have difficulty seeing the advantages of cooperation. (Thanks to Anthony Pagden for pointing this out to me.)

7. Selection for rationality: Pinker 1997/2009, chaps. 2 and 5; Pinker 2010; Tooby & DeVore 1987; Norman 2016.

8. Personal communication, Jan. 5, 2017; for supporting detail, see Liebenberg 1990, 2014.

9. Liebenberg 2014, pp. 191–92.

10. Shtulman 2005; see also Rice, Olson, & Colbert 2011.

11. Evolution as a litmus for religiosity: Roos 2012.

12. Kahan 2015.

13. Climate literacy: Kahan 2015; Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011. Ozone hole, toxic waste dumps, and climate change: Bostrom et al. 1994.

14. Pew Research Center 2015b; see Jones, Cox, & Navarro-Rivera 2014, for similar data.

15. Kahan: Braman et al. 2007; Eastop 2015; Kahan 2015; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman 2011; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, et al. 2012; Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011.

16. Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011, p. 15.

17. Tragedy of the Belief Commons: Kahan 2012; Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011. Kahan calls it the Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons.

18. A. Marcotte, “It’s Science, Stupid: Why Do Trump Supporters Believe So Many Things That Are Crazy and Wrong?” Salon, Sept. 30, 2016.

19. Blue lies: J. A. Smith, “How the Science of ‘Blue Lies’ May Explain Trump’s Support,” Scientific American, March 24, 2017.

20. Tooby 2017.

21. Motivated reasoning: Kunda 1990. My-Side bias: Baron 1993. Biased evaluation: Lord, Ross, & Lepper 1979; Taber & Lodge 2006. See also Mercier & Sperber 2011, for a review.

22. Hastorf & Cantril 1954.

23. Testosterone and elections: Stanton et al. 2009.

24. Polarizing effect of evidence: Lord, Ross, & Lepper 1979. For updates, see Taber & Lodge 2006 and Mercier & Sperber 2011.

25. Political engagement as sports fandom: Somin 2016.

26. Kahan, Peters, et al. 2012; Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011.

27. Kahan, Braman, et al. 2009.

28. M. Kaplan, “The Most Depressing Discovery About the Brain, Ever,” Alternet, Sept. 16, 2013, http://www.alternet.org/media/most-depressing-discovery-about-brain-ever. Study itself: Kahan, Peters, et al. 2013.

29. E. Klein, “How Politics Makes Us Stupid,” Vox, April 6, 2014; C. Mooney, “Science Confirms: Politics Wrecks Your Ability to Do Math,” Grist, Sept. 8, 2013.

30. Bias bias (actually called the “bias blind spot”): Pronin, Lin, & Ross 2002.

31. Verhulst, Eaves, & Hatemi 2015.

32. Rigged studies on prejudice: Duarte et al. 2015.

33. Economic illiteracy among leftists: Buturovic & Klein 2010; see also Caplan 2007.

34. Economic illiteracy follow-up and retraction: Klein & Buturovic 2011.

35. D. Klein, “I Was Wrong, and So Are You,” The Atlantic, Dec. 2011.

36. See Pinker 2011, chaps. 3–5.

37. Deaths from communism: Courtois et al. 1999; Rummel 1997; White 2011; see also Pinker 2011, chaps. 4–5.

38. Marxists among social scientists: Gross & Simmons 2014.

39. According to the 2016 Index of Economic Freedom compiled by the Wall Street Journal and the Heritage Foundation (http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking), New Zealand, Canada, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Denmark equal or exceed the United States in economic freedom. All but Canada exceed the United States in the proportion of GDP devoted to social spending (OECD 2014).

40. The trouble with right-wing libertarianism: Friedman 1997; J. Taylor, “Is There a Future for Libertarianism?” RealClearPolicy, Feb. 23, 2016, http://www.realclearpolicy.com/blog/2016/02/23/is_there_a_future_for_libertarianism_1563.html; M. Lind, “The Question Libertarians Just Can’t Answer,” Salon, June 4, 2013; B. Lindsay, “Liberaltarians,” New Republic, Dec. 4, 2006; W. Wilkinson, “Libertarian Principles, Niskanen, and Welfare Policy,” Niskanen blog, March 29, 2016, https://niskanencenter.org/blog/libertarian-principles-niskanen-and-welfare-policy/.

41. The road to totalitarianism: Payne 2005.

42. Though the United States has the world’s highest GDP, it falls in 13th place in happiness (Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016), 8th in the UN’s Human Development Index (Roser 2016h), and 19th in the Social Progress Index (Porter, Stern, & Green 2016). Recall that social transfers boost the Human Development Index up to around 25–30 percent of GDP (Prados de la Escosura 2015); the United States allocates around 19 percent.

43. Visions of the left and right: Pinker 2002/2016; Sowell 1987, chap. 16.

44. The problems with predictions: Gardner 2010; Mellers et al. 2014; Silver 2015; Tetlock & Gardner 2015; Tetlock, Mellers, & Scoblic 2017.

45. N. Silver, “Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump a Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else,” FiveThirtyEight, Nov. 11, 2016, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/.

46. Tetlock & Gardner 2015, p. 68.

47. Tetlock & Gardner 2015, p. 69.

48. Active open-mindedness: Baron 1993.

49. Tetlock 2015.

50. Increasing political polarization: Pew Research Center 2014.

51. Data from the General Social Survey, http://gss.norc.org, compiled in Abrams 2016.

52. Abrams 2016.

53. Political orientations of college faculty: Eagen et al. 2014; Gross & Simmons 2014; E. Schwitzgebel, “Political Affiliations of American Philosophers, Political Scientists, and Other Academics,” Splintered Mind, http://schwitzsplinters.blogspot.hk/2008/06/political-affiliations-of-american.html. See also N. Kristof, “A Confession of Liberal Intolerance,” New York Times, May 7, 2016.

54. Liberal tilt of journalism: In 2013, the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among American journalists was four to one, though a majority were Independent (50.2 percent) or Other (14.6 percent); Willnat & Weaver 2014, p. 11. A recent content analysis suggests that newspapers slant a bit to the left, but so do their readers; Gentzkow & Shapiro 2010.

55. Social forces congenial to liberals versus conservatives: Sowell 1987.

56. Intellectual liberals at the forefront: Grayling 2007; Hunt 2007.

57. We are all liberals: Courtwright 2010; Nash 2009; Welzel 2013.

58. Political bias in science: Jussim et al. 2017. Political bias in medicine: Satel 2000.

59. Duarte et al. 2015.

60. “Look different but think alike”: from the civil liberties lawyer Harvey Silverglate.

61. Duarte et al. 2015 includes thirty-three commentaries, many critical but all respectful, and the authors’ response. The Blank Slate won prizes from two divisions of the American Psychological Association.

62. N. Kristof, “A Confession of Liberal Intolerance,” New York Times, May 7, 2016; N. Kristof, “The Liberal Blind Spot,” New York Times, May 28, 2016.

63. J. McWhorter, “Antiracism, Our Flawed New Religion,” Daily Beast, July 27, 2015.

64. Illiberalism on campus and social justice warriors: Lukianoff 2012, 2014; G. Lukianoff & J. Haidt, “The Coddling of the American Mind,” The Atlantic, Sept. 2015; L. Jussim, “Mostly Leftist Threats to Mostly Campus Speech,” Psychology Today blog, Nov. 23, 2015, https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/rabble-rouser/201511/mostly-leftist-threats-mostly-campus-speech.

65. Public shaming: D. Lat, “The Harvard Email Controversy: How It All Began,” Above the Law, May 3, 2010, http://abovethelaw.com/2010/05/the-harvard-email-controversy-how-it-all-began/.

66. Stalinesque investigations: Dreger 2015; L. Kipnis, “In Her Own Words: Title IX Inquisition at Northwestern,” TheFire.org, https://www.thefire.org/in-her-own-words-laura-kipnis-title-ix-inquisition-at-northwestern-video/; see also note 64 above.

67. Unintended comedy: G. Lukianoff & J. Haidt, “The Coddling of the American Mind,” The Atlantic, Sept. 2015; C. Friedersdorf, “The New Intolerance of Student Activism,” The Atlantic, Nov. 9, 2015; J. M. Moyer, “University Yoga Class Canceled Because of ‘Oppression, Cultural Genocide,’” Washington Post, Nov. 23, 2015.

68. Comedians are not amused: G. Lukianoff & J. Haidt, “The Coddling of the American Mind,” The Atlantic, Sept. 2015; T. Kingkade, “Chris Rock Stopped Playing Colleges Because They’re ‘Too Conservative,’” Huffington Post, Dec. 2, 2014. See also the 2015 documentary, Can We Take a Joke?

69. Diversity of opinions within academia: Shields & Dunn 2016.

70. The earliest version was expressed by Samuel Johnson; see G. O’Toole, “Academic Politics Are So Vicious Because the Stakes Are So Small,” Quote Investigator, Aug. 18, 2013, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/08/18/acad-politics/.

71. Extremist, antidemocratic Republicans: Mann & Ornstein 2012/2016.

72. Cynicism about democracy: Foa & Mounk 2016; Inglehart 2016.

73. Right-wing anti-intellectualism has been deplored by conservatives themselves in books like Charlie Sykes’s How the Right Lost Its Mind (2017) and Matt Lewis’s Too Dumb to Fail (2016).

74. Centrality of reason: Nagel 1997; Norman 2016.

75. Extraordinary popular delusions: McKay 1841/1995; see also K. Malik, “All the Fake News That Was Fit to Print,” New York Times, Dec. 4, 2016.

76. A. D. Holan, “All Politicians Lie. Some Lie More Than Others,” New York Times, Dec. 11, 2015.

77. In analyzing history’s deadliest conflicts, Matthew White comments, “I’m amazed at how often the immediate cause of a conflict is a mistake, unfounded suspicion, or rumor.” In addition to the first two listed here he includes the First World War, Sino-Japanese War, Seven Years’ War, Second French War of Religion, An Lushan Rebellion in China, Indonesian Purge, and Russia’s Time of Troubles; White 2011, p. 537.

78. Opinion of Judge Leon M. Bazile, Jan. 22, 1965, Encyclopedia Virginia, http://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Opinion_of_Judge_Leon_M_Bazile_January_22_1965.

79. S. Sontag, “Some Thoughts on the Right Way (for Us) to Love the Cuban Revolution,” Ramparts, April 1969, pp. 6–19. Sontag went on to claim that the homosexuals “have long since been sent home,” but gays continued to be sent to forced labor camps in Cuba throughout the 1960s and 1970s. See “Concentration Camps in Cuba: The UMAP,” Totalitarian Images, Feb. 6, 2010, http://totalitarianimages.blogspot.com/2010/02/concentration-camps-in-cuba-umap.html, and J. Halatyn, “From Persecution to Acceptance? The History of LGBT Rights in Cuba,” Cutting Edge, Oct. 24, 2012, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=76818.

80. Affective tipping point: Redlawsk, Civettini, & Emmerson 2010.

81. Naked emperors and common knowledge: Pinker 2007a; Thomas et al. 2014; Thomas, DeScioli, & Pinker 2018.

82. For an excellent summary of common fallacies, see the Web site and poster “Thou shalt not commit logical fallacies,” https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/. Critical thinking curricula: Willingham 2007.

83. Debiasing: Bond 2009; Gigerenzer 1991; Gigerenzer & Hoffrage 1995; Lilienfeld, Ammirati, & Landfield 2009; Mellers et al. 2014; Morewedge et al. 2015.

84. The trouble with critical-thinking curricula: Willingham 2007.

85. Effective debiasing: Bond 2009; Gigerenzer 1991; Gigerenzer & Hoffrage 1995; Lilienfeld, Ammirati, & Landfield 2009; Mellers et al. 2014; Mercier & Sperber 2011; Morewedge et al. 2015; Tetlock & Gardner 2015; Willingham 2007.

86. Giving debiasing away: Lilienfeld, Ammirati, & Landfield 2009.

87. Anonymous, quoted in P. Voosen, “Striving for a Climate Change,” Chronicle Review of Higher Education, Nov. 3, 2014.

88. Improving argument: Kuhn 1991; Mercier & Sperber 2011, 2017; Sloman & Fernbach 2017.

89. Truth wins: Mercier & Sperber 2011.

90. Adversarial collaboration: Mellers, Hertwig, & Kahneman 2001.

91. The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Rozenblit & Keil 2002. Using the illusion to debias: Sloman & Fernbach 2017.

92. Mercier & Sperber 2011, p. 72; Mercier & Sperber 2017.

93. More rational journalism: Silver 2015; A. D. Holan, “All Politicians Lie. Some Lie More Than Others,” New York Times, Dec. 11, 2015.

94. More rational intelligence-gathering: Tetlock & Gardner 2015; Tetlock, Mellers, & Scoblic 2017.

95. More rational medicine: Topol 2012.

96. More rational psychotherapy: T. Rousmaniere, “What Your Therapist Doesn’t Know,” The Atlantic, April 2017.

97. More rational crimefighting: Abt & Winship 2016; Latzer 2016.

98. More rational international development: Banerjee & Duflo 2011.

99. More rational altruism: MacAskill 2015.

100. More rational sports: Lewis 2016.

101. “What Exactly Is the ‘Rationality Community’?” LessWrong, http://lesswrong.com/lw/ov2/what_exactly_is_the_rationality_community/.

102. More rational governance: Behavioral Insights Team 2015; Haskins & Margolis 2014; Schuck 2015; Sunstein 2013; D. Leonhard, “The Quiet Movement to Make Government Fail Less Often,” New York Times, July 15, 2014.

103. Democracy versus rationality: Achens & Bartels 2016; Brennan 2016; Caplan 2007; Mueller 1999; Somin 2016.

104. Plato and democracy: Goldstein 2013.

105. Kahan, Wittlin, et al. 2011, p. 16.

106. HPV versus hep B: E. Klein, “How Politics Makes Us Stupid,” Vox, April 6, 2014.

107. Party over policy: Cohen 2003.

108. Evidence that same-side spokespeople can change minds: Nyhan 2013.

109. Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, et al. 2012.

110. Depoliticized Florida compact: Kahan 2015.

111. Chicago Way: Sean Connery’s Jim Malone in The Untouchables (1987). GRIT: Osgood 1962.

CHAPTER 22: SCIENCE

1. The example is from Murray 2003.

2. Carroll 2016, p. 426.

3. Naming species: Costello, May, & Stork 2013. The estimate refers to eukaryotic species (those with a nucleus, excluding viruses and bacteria).

4. The party of stupid: See chapter 21, notes 71 and 73.

5. Mooney 2005; see also Pinker 2008b.

6. Lamar Smith and the House Science Committee: J. D. Trout, “The House Science Committee Hates Science and Should Be Disbanded,” Salon, May 17, 2016.

7. J. Mervis, “Updated: U.S. House Passes Controversial Bill on NSF Research,” Science, Feb. 11, 2016.

8. From Note-book of Anton Chekhov. The quote continues, “What is national is no longer science.”

9. J. Lears, “Same Old New Atheism: On Sam Harris,” The Nation, April 27, 2011.

10. L. Kass, “Keeping Life Human: Science, Religion, and the Soul,” Wriston Lecture, Manhattan Institute, Oct. 18, 2007, https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/2007-wriston-lecture-keeping-life-human-science-religion-and-soul-8894.html. See also L. Kass, “Science, Religion, and the Human Future,” Commentary, April 2007, pp. 36–48.

11. On the numbering of the Two Cultures, see chapter 3, note 12.

12. D. Linker, “Review of Christopher Hitchens’s ‘And Yet . . .’ and Roger Scruton’s ‘Fools, Frauds and Firebrands,’” New York Times Book Review, Jan. 8, 2016.

13. Snow introduced the term “Third Culture” in a postscript to The Two Cultures called “A Second Look.” He was vague about who he had in mind, referring to them as “social historians,” by which he seems to have meant social scientists; Snow 1959/1998, pp. 70, 80.

14. Revival of “Third Culture”: Brockman 1991. Consilience: Wilson 1998.

15. L. Wieseltier, “Crimes Against Humanities,” New Republic, Sept. 3, 2013.

16. Hume as cognitive psychologist: See the references in Pinker 2007a, chap. 4. Kant as cognitive psychologist: Kitcher 1990.

17. The definition is from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Papineau 2015, which adds, “The great majority of contemporary philosophers would accept naturalism as just characterized.” In a survey of 931 philosophy professors (mainly analytic/Anglo-American), 50 percent endorsed “naturalism,” 26 percent endorsed “non-naturalism,” and 24 percent indicated “other,” including “The question is too unclear to answer” (10 percent), “Insufficiently familiar with the issue” (7 percent), and “Agnostic/undecided” (3 percent); Bourget & Chalmers 2014.

18. No “scientific method”: Popper 1983.

19. Falsificationism versus Bayesian inference: Howson & Urbach 1989/2006; Popper 1983.

20. In 2012–13, the New Republic published four denunciations of scientism, and others appeared in Bookforum, the Claremont Review, the Huffington Post, The Nation, National Review Online, the New Atlantis, the New York Times, and Standpoint.

21. According to the Open Syllabus Project (http://opensyllabusproject.org/), which has analyzed more than a million university syllabuses, Structure is the twentieth most assigned book overall, well ahead of The Origin of Species. A classic book with a more realistic take on how science works, Karl Popper’s The Logic of Scientific Discovery, is not in the top 200.

22. Kuhn controversy: Bird 2011.

23. Wootton 2015, p. 16, note ii.

24. The quotes come from J. De Vos, “The Iconographic Brain. A Critical Philosophical Inquiry into (the Resistance of) the Image,” Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, May 15, 2014. This was not the researcher I heard (a transcript of his talk is not available), but the content was essentially the same.

25. Carey et al. 2016. Similar examples may be found in the Twitter stream New Real PeerReview, @RealPeerReview.

26. From the first page of Horkheimer & Adorno 1947/2007.

27. Foucault 1999; see Menschenfreund 2010; Merquior 1985.

28. Bauman 1989, p. 91. See Menschenfreund 2010, for analysis.

29. Ubiquity of premodern genocide and autocracy, and their decline after 1945: See the references in chapters 11 and 14, and in Pinker 2011, chaps. 4–6. On Foucault’s neglect of totalitarianism before the Enlightenment, see Merquior 1985.

30. Ubiquity of slavery: Patterson 1985; Payne 2004; see also Pinker 2011, chap. 4. Religious justifications for slavery: Price 2006.

31. Greeks and Arabs on Africans: Lewis 1990/1992. Cicero on Britons: B. Delong, “Cicero: The Britons Are Too Stupid to Make Good Slaves,” http://www.bradford-delong.com/2009/06/cicero-the-britons-are-too-stupid-to-make-good-slaves.html.

32. Gobineau, Wagner, Chamberlain, and Hitler: Herman 1997, chap. 2; see also Hellier 2011; Richards 2013. Many misconceptions about the link between “racial science” and Darwinism were spread by the biologist Stephen Jay Gould in his tendentious 1981 bestseller The Mismeasure of Man; see Blinkhorn 1982; Davis 1983; Lewis et al. 2011.

33. Darwinian versus traditional, religious, and Romantic theories of race: Hellier 2011; Price 2009; Price 2006.

34. Hitler was not a Darwinian: Richards 2013; see also Hellier 2011; Price 2006.

35. Evolution as Rorschach test: Montgomery & Chirot 2015. Social Darwinism: Degler 1991; Leonard 2009; Richards 2013.

36. The misapplication of the term social Darwinism to a variety of right-wing movements was begun by the historian Richard Hofstadter in his 1944 book Social Darwinism in American Thought; see Johnson 2010; Leonard 2009; Price 2006.

37. An example is an article on evolutionary psychology in Scientific American by John Horgan entitled “The New Social Darwinists” (October 1995).

38. Glover 1998, 1999; Proctor 1988.

39. As in the title of another Scientific American article by John Horgan, “Eugenics Revisited: Trends in Behavioral Genetics” (June 1993).

40. Degler 1991; Kevles 1985; Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Ridley 2000.

41. Tuskegee reexamined: Benedek & Erlen 1999; Reverby 2000; Shweder 2004; Lancet Infectious Diseases Editors 2005.

42. Review boards abridge free speech: American Association of University Professors 2006; Schneider 2015; C. Shea, “Don’t Talk to the Humans: The Crackdown on Social Science Research,” Lingua Franca, Sept. 2000, http://linguafranca.mirror.theinfo.org/print/0009/humans.html. Review boards as ideological weapons: Dreger 2007. Review boards bog down research without protecting subjects: Atran 2007; Gunsalus et al. 2006; Hyman 2007; Klitzman 2015; Schneider 2015; Schrag 2010.

43. Moss 2005.

44. Protecting suicide bombers: Atran 2007.

45. Philosophers against bioethics: Glover 1998; Savulescu 2015. For other critiques of contemporary bioethics, see Pinker 2008b; Satel 2010; S. Pinker, “The Case Against Bioethocrats and CRISPR Germline Ban,” The Niche, Aug. 10, 2015, https://ipscell.com/2015/08/stevenpinker/8/; S. Pinker, “The Moral Imperative for Bioethics,” Boston Globe, Aug. 1, 2015; H. Miller, “When ‘Bioethics’ Harms Those It Is Meant to Protect,” Forbes, Nov. 9, 2016. See also the references in note 42 above.

46. See the references in chapter 21, notes 93–102.

47. Dawes, Faust, & Meehl 1989; Meehl 1954/2013. Recent replications: Mental health, Ægisdóttir et al. 2006; Lilienfeld et al. 2013; selection and admission decisions, Kuncel et al. 2013; violence, Singh, Grann, & Fazel 2011.

48. Blessed are the peacekeepers: Fortna 2008, p. 173. See also Hultman, Kathman, & Shannong 2013, and Goldstein 2011, who credits peacekeeping forces with much of the post-1945 decline of war.

49. Ethnic neighbors rarely fight: Fearon & Laitin 1996, 2003; Mueller 2004.

50. Chenoweth 2016; Chenoweth & Stephan 2011.

51. Revolutionary leaders are educated: Chirot 1994. Suicide terrorists are educated: Atran 2003.

52. Trouble in the humanities: American Academy of Arts and Sciences 2015; Armitage et al. 2013. For earlier lamentations, see Pinker 2002/2016, opening to chap. 20.

53. Why democracy needs the humanities: Nussbaum 2016.

54. Cultural pessimism in the humanities: Herman 1997; Lilla 2001, 2016; Nisbet 1980/2009; Wolin 2004.

55. The framers and human nature: McGinnis 1996, 1997. Politics and human nature: Pinker 2002/2016, chap. 16; Pinker 2011, chaps. 8 and 9; Haidt 2012; Sowell 1987.

56. Art and science: Dutton 2009; Livingstone 2014.

57. Music and science: Bregman 1990; Lerdahl & Jackendoff 1983; Patel 2008; see also Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 8.

58. Literature and science: Boyd, Carroll, & Gottschall 2010; Connor 2016; Gottschall 2012; Gottschall & Wilson 2005; Lodge 2002; Pinker 2007b; Slingerland 2008; see also Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 8, and William Benzon’s blog New Savanna, new.savanna.blogspot.com.

59. Digital humanities: Michel et al. 2010; see the e-journal Digital Humanities Now (http://digitalhumanitiesnow.org/), the Stanford Humanities Center (http://shc.stanford.edu/digital-humanities), and the journal Digital Humanities Quarterly (http://www.digitalhumanities.org/dhq/).

60. Gottschall 2012; A. Gopnik, “Can Science Explain Why We Tell Stories?” New Yorker, May 18, 2012.

61. Wieseltier 2013, “Crimes Against Humanities,” which was a reply to my essay “Science Is Not Your Enemy” (Pinker 2013b); see also “Science vs. the Humanities, Round III” (Pinker & Wieseltier 2013).

62. Pre-Darwinian, pre-Copernican: L. Wieseltier, “Among the Disrupted,” New York Times, Jan. 7, 2015.

63. In “A Letter Addressed to the Abbe Raynal,” Paine 1778/2016, quoted in Shermer 2015.

CHAPTER 23: HUMANISM

1. “Good without God”: From the 19th century, revived by the Harvard Humanist chaplain Greg Epstein (Epstein 2009). Other recent explanations of humanism: Grayling 2013; Law 2011. History of American Humanism: Jacoby 2005. Major Humanist organizations include the American Humanist Association, https://americanhumanist.org/ and the other members of the Secular Coalition of America, https://www.secular.org/member_orgs; the British Humanist Association (https://humanism.org.uk/); the International Humanist and Ethical Union, http://iheu.org/; and the Freedom from Religion Foundation (www.ffrf.org).

2. Humanist Manifesto III: American Humanist Association 2003. Predecessors: Humanist Manifesto I (mainly by Raymond B. Bragg, 1933), American Humanist Association 1933/1973. Humanist Manifesto II (mainly by Paul Kurtz and Edwin H. Wilson, 1973), American Humanist Association 1973. Other Humanist manifestoes include Paul Kurtz’s Secular Humanist Declaration, Council for Secular Humanism 1980, and Humanist Manifesto 2000, Council for Secular Humanism 2000, and the Amsterdam Declarations of 1952 and 2002, International Humanist and Ethical Union 2002.

3. R. Goldstein, “Speaking Prose All Our Lives,” The Humanist, Dec. 21, 2012, https://thehumanist.com/magazine/january-february-2013/features/speaking-prose-all-our-lives.

4. The rights declarations of 1688, 1776, 1789, and 1948: Hunt 2007.

5. Morality as impartiality: de Lazari-Radek & Singer 2012; Goldstein 2006; Greene 2013; Nagel 1970; Railton 1986; Singer 1981/2010; Smart & Williams 1973. The “impartiality” umbrella was articulated most explicitly by the philosopher Henry Sidgwick (1838–1900).

6. For an exhaustive (if eccentric) list of Golden, Silver, and Platinum rules across cultures and history, see Terry 2008.

7. Evolution explains the existence of mind despite entropy: Tooby, Cosmides, & Barrett 2003. Natural selection is the only explanation of nonrandom design: Dawkins 1983.

8. Curiosity and sociality as concomitants of the evolution of intelligence: Pinker 2010; Tooby & DeVore 1987.

9. Evolutionary conflicts of interest within and among people: Pinker 1997/2009, chaps. 6 and 7; Pinker 2002/2016, chap. 14; Pinker 2011, chaps. 8 and 9. Many of these ideas originated with the biologist Robert Trivers (2002).

10. The Pacifist’s Dilemma and the historical decline of violence: Pinker 2011, chap. 10.

11. DeScioli 2016.

12. Evolution of sympathy: Dawkins 1976/1989; McCullough 2008; Pinker 1997/2009; Trivers 2002; Pinker 2011, chap. 9.

13. Expanding circle of sympathy: Pinker 2011; Singer 1981/2010.

14. For example, T. Nagel, “The Facts Fetish (Review of Sam Harris’s The Moral Landscape),” New Republic, Oct. 20, 2010.

15. Utilitarianism, for and against: Rachels & Rachels 2010; Smart & Williams 1973.

16. Compatibility of deontological and consequential meta-ethics: Parfit 2011.

17. Track record of utilitarianism: Pinker 2011, chaps. 4 and 6; Greene 2013.

18. From Notes on the State of Virginia, Jefferson 1785/1955, p. 159.

19. Unintuitiveness of classical liberalism: Fiske & Rai 2015; Haidt 2012; Pinker 2011, chap. 9.

20. Greene 2013.

21. The importance of philosophical thinness: Berlin 1988/2013; Gregg 2003; Hammond 2017.

22. Hammond 2017.

23. Maritain 1949. Original typescript available at the UNESCO Web site, http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0015/001550/155042eb.pdf.

24. Universal Declaration of Human Rights: United Nations 1948. History of the Declaration: Glendon 1999, 2001; Hunt 2007.

25. Quoted in Glendon 1999.

26. Human rights not particularly Western: Glendon 1998; Hunt 2007; Sikkink 2017.

27. R. Cohen, “The Death of Liberalism,” New York Times, April 14, 2016.

28. S. Kinzer, “The Enlightenment Had a Good Run,” Boston Globe, Dec. 23, 2016.

29. ISIS more appealing than Enlightenment: R. Douthat, “The Islamic Dilemma,” New York Times, Dec. 13, 2015; R. Douthat, “Among the Post-Liberals,” New York Times, Oct. 8, 2016; M. Kahn, “This Is What Happens When Modernity Fails All of Us,” New York Times, Dec. 6, 2015; P. Mishra, “The Western Model Is Broken,” The Guardian, Oct. 14, 2014.

30. Universality of proscriptions of murder, rape, and violence: Brown 2000.

31. God as enforcer: Atran 2002; Norenzayan 2015.

32. Fatal flaws in arguments for the existence of God: Goldstein 2010; see also Dawkins 2006 and Coyne 2015.

33. Coyne draws in part on arguments from the astronomer Carl Sagan and the philosophers Yonatan Fishman and Maarten Boudry. For a review, see S. Pinker, “The Untenability of Faitheism,” Current Biology, Aug. 23, 2015, pp. R1–R3.

34. Debunking the soul: Blackmore 1991; Braithwaite 2008; Musolino 2015; Shermer 2002; Stein 1996. See also the magazines Skeptical Inquirer (http://www.csicop.org/si) and The Skeptic (http://www.skeptic.com/) for regular updates.

35. Stenger 2011.

36. The multiverse: Carroll 2016; Tegmark 2003; B. Greene, “Welcome to the Multiverse,” Newsweek, May 21, 2012.

37. A universe from nothing: Krauss 2012.

38. B. Greene, “Welcome to the Multiverse,” Newsweek, May 21, 2012.

39. Easy and hard problems of consciousness: Block 1995; Chalmers 1996; McGinn 1993; Nagel 1974; see also Pinker 1997/2009, chaps. 2 and 8, and S. Pinker, “The Mystery of Consciousness,” Time, Jan. 19, 2007.

40. Adaptive nature of consciousness: Pinker, 1997/2009, chap. 2.

41. Dehaene 2009; Dehaene & Changeux 2011; Gaillard et al. 2009.

42. For an extended defense of this distinction, see Goldstein 1976.

43. Nagel 1974, p. 441. Nearly four decades later, Nagel changed his mind (see Nagel 2012), but like most philosophers and scientists, I think he got it right the first time. See, for example, S. Carroll, Review of Mind and Cosmos, http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2013/08/22/mind-and-cosmos/; E. Sober, “Remarkable Facts: Ending Science as We Know It,” Boston Review, Nov. 7, 2012; B. Leiter & M. Weisberg, “Do You Only Have a Brain?” The Nation, Oct. 3, 2012.

44. McGinn 1993.

45. Moral realism: Sayre-McCord 1988, 2015. Moral realists: Boyd 1988; Brink 1989; de Lazari-Radek & Singer 2012; Goldstein 2006, 2010; Nagel 1970; Parfit 2011; Railton 1986; Singer 1981/2010.

46. Examples are the European wars of religion (Pinker 2011, pp. 234, 676–77) and even the American Civil War (Montgomery & Chirot 2015, p. 350).

47. White 2011, pp. 107–11.

48. S. Bannon, remarks to a conference at the Vatican, 2014, transcribed in J. L. Feder, “This Is How Steve Bannon Sees the Entire World,” BuzzFeed, Nov. 16, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world.

49. Nazis sympathetic to Christianity and vice versa: Ericksen & Heschel 1999; Hellier 2011; Heschel 2008; Steigmann-Gall 2003; White 2011. Hitler was not an atheist: Hellier 2011; Murphy 1999; Richards 2013; see also “Hitler Was a Christian,” http://www.evilbible.com/evil-bible-home-page/hitler-was-a-christian/.

50. Interview with Richard Breiting, 1931, published in Calic 1971, p. 86. According to Hathaway & Shapiro 2017, p. 251, this quote was attributed to Mein Kampf by the Nazi legal theorist Carl Schmitt. For similar quotations, see the references in the preceding note.

51. Sam Harris, The End of Faith (2004); Richard Dawkins, The God Delusion (2006); Daniel Dennett, Breaking the Spell (2006); Christopher Hitchens, God Is Not Great (2007).

52. Randall Munroe, “Atheists,” https://xkcd.com/774/.

53. The claim that people treat scripture allegorically (for example, Wieseltier 2013) is untrue: A 2005 Rasmussen poll found that 63 percent of Americans believed that the Bible is literally true (http://legacy.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Bible.htm); a 2014 Gallup poll found that 28 percent of Americans believed that “the Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word,” and another 47 percent believed it was “the inspired word of God” (L. Saad, “Three in Four in U.S. Still See the Bible as Word of God,” Gallup, June 4, 2014, http://www.gallup.com/poll/170834/three-four-bible-word-god.aspx).

54. Psychology of religion: Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 8; Atran 2002; Bloom 2012; Boyer 2001; Dawkins 2006; Dennett 2006; Goldstein 2010.

55. Why there is no “God module”: Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 8; Bloom 2012; Pinker 2005.

56. Community participation, not religious belief, explains the benefits of religious belonging: Putnam & Campbell 2010; see Bloom 2012 and Susan Pinker 2014 for reviews. For a recent study finding the same pattern for mortality, see Kim, Smith, & Kang 2015.

57. Regressive religious policies: Coyne 2015.

58. God and climate: Bean & Teles 2016; see also chapter 18, note 86.

59. Trump support from Evangelicals: See New York Times 2016 and chapter 20, note 34.

60. A. Wilkinson, “Trump Wants to ‘Totally Destroy’ a Ban on Churches Endorsing Political Candidates,” Vox, Feb. 7, 2017.

61. “The Oprah Winfrey Show Finale,” oprah.com, http://www.oprah.com/oprahshow/the-oprah-winfrey-show-finale_1/all.

62. Excerpted and lightly edited from “The Universe—Uncensored,” Inside Amy Schumer, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eqCaiwmr_M.

63. Hostility to atheists: G. Paul & P. Zuckerman, “Don’t Dump On Us Atheists,” Washington Post, April 30, 2011; Gervais & Najle 2017.

64. From the World Christian Encyclopedia (2001), cited in Paul & Zuckerman 2007.

65. Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism: WIN-Gallup International 2012. The Index’s sample of countries in 2005 was smaller (thirty-nine countries) and more religious (68 percent still identifying themselves as religious in 2012, as opposed to 59 percent in the full 2012 sample). In the longitudinal subset, the percentage of atheists grew from 4 to 7 percent, a 75 percent increase in seven years. It would be dubious to generalize this multiplier to larger samples, because of the nonlinearity of the percentage scale at the low end, so in estimating the increase in atheism in the fifty-seven-country sample over this period, I assumed a more conservative 30 percent increase.

66. Secularization Thesis: Inglehart & Welzel 2005; Voas & Chaves 2016.

67. Correlation of irreligion with income and education: Barber 2011; Lynn, Harvey, & Nyborg 2009; WIN-Gallup International 2012.

68. WIN-Gallup International 2012. Other minority-religious countries in the sample are Austria and the Czech Republic, and those in which the percentage just squeaks past 50 percent include Finland, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. Other secular Western countries such as Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom were not surveyed. According to a different set of surveys from around 2004 (Zuckerman 2007, reproduced in Lynn, Harvey, & Nyborg 2009), more than a quarter of respondents in fifteen developed countries say they don’t believe in God, together with more than half of Czechs, Japanese, and Swedes.

69. Pew Research Center 2012a.

70. The Methodology Appendix to Pew Research Center 2012a, particularly note 85, indicates that their fertility estimates are current snapshots, and are not adjusted for anticipated changes. Muslim fertility decline: Eberstadt & Shah 2011.

71. Religious change in the Anglosphere: Voas & Chaves 2016.

72. American religious exceptionalism: Paul 2014; Voas & Chaves 2016. These numbers are from WIN-Gallup International 2012.

73. Lynn, Harvey, & Nyborg 2009; Zuckerman 2007.

74. American secularization: Hout & Fischer 2014; Jones et al. 2016b; Pew Research Center 2015a; Voas & Chaves 2016.

75. The preceding figures are from Jones et al. 2016b. Another sign of the underreported decline in religion in the United States is that the proportion of white Evangelicals in the PRRI surveys fell from 20 percent in 2012 to 16 percent in 2016.

76. Younger irreligious more likely to stay irreligious: Hout & Fischer 2014; Jones et al. 2016b; Voas & Chaves 2016.

77. Blatant nonbelievers: D. Leonhard, “The Rise of Young Americans Who Don’t Believe in God,” New York Times, May 12, 2015, based on data from Pew Research Center 2015a. Little nonbelief in the 1950s: Voas & Chaves 2016, based on data from the General Social Survey.

78. Gervais & Najle 2017.

79. Jones et al. 2016b, p. 18.

80. Explanations for secularization: Hout & Fischer 2014; Inglehart & Welzel 2005; Jones et al. 2016b; Paul & Zuckerman 2007; Voas & Chaves 2016.

81. Secularization and declining trust in institutions: Twenge, Campbell, & Carter 2014. Trust in institutions peaked in the 1960s: Mueller 1999, pp. 167–68.

82. Secularization and emancipative values: Hout & Fischer 2014; Inglehart & Welzel 2005; Welzel 2013.

83. Secularization and existential security: Inglehart & Welzel 2005; Welzel 2013. Secularization and the social safety net: Barber 2011; Paul 2014; Paul & Zuckerman 2007.

84. Main reason Americans leave religion: Jones et al. 2016b. Note also that belief in the literal truth of the Bible among respondents in the Gallup poll described in note 53 above has decreased over time, from 40 percent in 1981 to 28 percent in 2014, while belief that it is a book of “fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by man” rose from 10 percent to 21 percent.

85. Secularization and rising IQ: Kanazawa 2010; Lynn, Harvey, & Nyborg 2009.

86. “Total eclipse”: From a quote by Friedrich Nietzsche.

87. Happiness: See chapter 18, and Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016. Indicators of social well-being: See Porter, Stern, & Green 2016; chapter 21, note 42; and note 90 below. In a regression analysis of 116 countries, Keehup Yong and I found that the correlation between the Social Progress Index and the percentage of the population not believing in God (taken from Lynn, Harvey, & Nyborg 2009) was .63, which was statistically significant (p <.0001) holding constant GDP per capita.

88. Unfortunate American exceptionalism: See chapter 21, note 42; Paul 2009, 2014.

89. Religious state, dysfunctional state: Delamontagne 2010.

90. Though more than a quarter of the world’s 195 countries are Muslim-majority, none are found among the thirty-eight ranked as “Very High” and “High” on the Social Progress Index (Porter, Stern, & Green 2016, pp. 19–20) or among the twenty-five happiest (Helliwell, Layard, & Sachs 2016). None is a “full democracy,” just three are “flawed democracies,” and more than forty are “authoritarian” or “hybrid” regimes: The Economist Intelligence Unit, https://infographics.economist.com/2017/DemocracyIndex/. For similar assessments, see Marshall & Gurr 2014; Marshall, Gurr, & Jaggers 2016; Pryor 2007.

91. Wars in 2016: See chapter 11, note 9; and Gleditsch & Rudolfsen 2016. Terrorism: Institute for Economics and Peace 2016, using data from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, http://www.start.umd.edu/.

92. Precocious scientific revolution: Al-Khalili 2010; Huff 1993. Tolerance in the Arab and Ottoman Empires: Lewis 2002; Pelham 2016.

93. Regressive passages in the Quran, Hadith, and Sunna: Rizvi 2017, chap. 2; Hirsi Ali 2015a, 2015b; S. Harris, “Verses from the Koran,” Truthdig, http://www.truthdig.com/images/diguploads/verses.html; The Skeptic’s Annotated Quran, http://skepticsannotatedbible.com/quran/int/long.html. Recent discussion by journalists include R. Callimachi, “ISIS Enshrines a Theology of Rape,” New York Times, Aug. 13, 2015; G. Wood, “What ISIS Really Wants,” The Atlantic, March 2015; and Wood 2017. Recent scholarly discussions include Cook 2014 and Bowering 2015.

94. Alexander & Welzel 2011, pp. 256–58.

95. Alexander and Welzel cite the Bertelsmann Foundation’s Religious Monitor. See also Pew Research Center 2012c; WIN-Gallup International 2012, for comparable figures (though with regional variation).

96. Quotes from Pew Research Center 2013, pp. 24 and 15, and Pew Research Center 2012c, pp. 11 and 12. The countries asked about interpreting the Quran word for word were the United States and fifteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which probably bracket the range. The exceptions to wanting sharia as national law include Turkey, Lebanon, and formerly communist regions.

97. Welzel 2013; see also Alexander & Welzel 2011 and Inglehart 2017.

98. Alexander & Welzel 2011. See also Pew Research Center 2013, which found higher support for sharia law among devout Muslims.

99. Religious stranglehold: Huff 1993; Kuran 2010; Lewis 2002; United Nations Development Programme 2003; Montgomery & Chirot 2015, chap. 7; see also Rizvi 2017 and Hirsi Ali 2015a for first-person accounts.

100. Reactionary Islam: Montgomery & Chirot 2015, chap. 7; Lilla 2016; Hathaway & Shapiro 2017.

101. Western intellectuals apologizing for repression in the Islamic world: Berman 2010; J. Palmer, “The Shame and Disgrace of the Pro-Islamist Left,” Quillette, Dec. 6, 2015; J. Tayler, “The Left Has Islam All Wrong,” Salon, May 10, 2015; J. Tayler, “On Betrayal by the Left—Talking with Ex-Muslim Sarah Haider,” Quillette, March 16, 2017.

102. Quoted in J. Tayler, “On Betrayal by the Left—Talking with Ex-Muslim Sarah Haider,” Quillette, March 16, 2017.

103. Al-Khalili 2010; Huff 1993.

104. Sen 2000, 2005, 2009; see also Pelham 2016, for examples in the Ottoman Empire.

105. Esposito & Mogahed 2007; Inglehart 2017; Welzel 2013.

106. Islamic modernization: Mahbubani & Summers 2016. Cohort replacement: See chapter 15, especially figure 15-7; Inglehart 2017; Welzel 2013. Inglehart notes, however, that while thirteen of the Muslim-majority countries in the World Values Survey show a generational shift toward gender equality, fourteen do not; the reasons for the split are unclear.

107. J. Burke, “Osama bin Laden’s bookshelf: Noam Chomsky, Bob Woodward, and Jihad,” The Guardian, May 20, 2015.

108. Extramural drivers of moral progress: Appiah 2010; Hunt 2007.

109. Nietzsche’s famous works, many of whose titles have become highbrow memes, include The Birth of Tragedy, Beyond Good and Evil, Thus Spake Zarathustra, The Genealogy of Morals, Twilight of the Idols, Ecce Homo, and The Will to Power. For critical discussion, see Anderson 2017; Glover 1999; Herman 1997; Russell 1945/1972; Wolin 2004.

110. The first three quotations are taken from Russell 1945/1972, pp. 762–66, the last two from Wolin 2004, pp. 53, 57.

111. Relativismo e Fascismo, quoted in Wolin 2004, p. 27.

112. Rosenthal 2002.

113. Nietzsche’s influence on Rand and her cover-up: Burns 2009.

114. From The Genealogy of Morals and The Will to Power, quoted in Wolin 2004, pp. 32–33.

115. Tyrannophilia: Lilla 2001. The syndrome was first identified in The Treason of the Intellectuals by the French philosopher Julian Benda (Benda 1927/2006). More recent histories include Berman 2010; Herman 1997; Hollander 1981/2014; Sesardić 2016; Sowell 2010; Wolin 2004. See also Humphrys (undated).

116. Scholars and Writers for America, “Statement of Unity,” Oct. 30, 2016, https://scholarsandwritersforamerica.org/.

117. J. Baskin, “The Academic Home of Trumpism,” Chronicle of Higher Education, March 17, 2017.

118. Nietzsche influenced not only Mussolini but the Fascist theoretician Julius Evola, discussed below. He also influenced the philosopher Leo Strauss, a major influence on the Claremont school and reactionary theoconservatism; see J. Baskin, “The Academic Home of Trumpism,” Chronicle of Higher Education, March 17, 2017; Lampert 1996.

119. Nationalism and counter-Enlightenment Romanticism: Berlin 1979; Garrard 2006; Herman 1997; Howard 2001; McMahon 2001; Sternhell 2010; Wolin 2004.

120. Rediscovery of early Fascists: J. Horowitz, “Steve Bannon Cited Italian Thinker Who Inspired Fascists,” New York Times, Feb. 10, 2017; P. Levy, “Stephen Bannon Is a Fan of a French Philosopher . . . Who Was an Anti-Semite and a Nazi Supporter,” Mother Jones, March 16, 2017; M. Crowley, “The Man Who Wants to Unmake the West,” Politico, March/April 2017. Alt-right: A. Bokhari & M. Yiannopoulos, “An Establishment Conservative’s Guide to the Alt-Right,” Breitbart.com, March 29, 2016, http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/29/an-establishment-conservatives-guide-to-the-alt-right/. Nietzsche’s influence on the alt-right: G. Wood, “His Kampf,” The Atlantic, June 2017; S. Illing, “The Alt-Right Is Drunk on Bad Readings of Nietzsche. The Nazis Were Too,” Vox, Aug. 17, 2017, https://www.vox.com/2017/8/17/16140846/nietzsche-richard-spencer-alt-right-nazism.

121. Naïve evolutionary-psychological explanation of nationalism, and its problems: Pinker 2012.

122. Theoconservatism: Lilla 2016; Linker 2007; Pinker 2008b.

123. Written under the pseudonym Publius Decius Mus; see Publius Decius Mus 2016. See also M. Warren, “The Anonymous Pro-Trump ‘Decius’ Now Works Inside the White House,” Weekly Standard, Feb. 2, 2017.

124. The reactionary mindset: Lilla 2016. For more on reactionary Islam, see Montgomery & Chirot 2015 and Hathaway & Shapiro 2017.

125. A. Restuccia & J. Dawsey, “How Bannon and Pruitt Boxed In Trump on Climate Pact,” Politico, May 31, 2017.

126. Cognitive flexibility of “tribe”: Kurzban, Tooby, & Cosmides 2001; Sidanius & Pratto 1999; see also Center for Evolutionary Psychology, UCSB, Erasing Race FAQ, http://www.cep.ucsb.edu/erasingrace.htm.

127. Manipulating group intuitions: Pinker 2012.

128. Tribalism and cosmopolitanism: Appiah 2006.

129. Diamond 1997; Sowell 1994, 1996, 1998.

130. Glaeser 2011; Sowell 1996.