Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

Lawrence, D. H., 446

Lears, Jackson, 388

Leavis, F. R., 34, 92–3, 446

Lebanon, 490n96

Leetaru, Kalev, 50

Lehrer, Tom, 48, 126

Lenin, Vladimir, 447

Lennon, John, 166

Lepper, Mark, 359–60

Lesotho, 172

Lessing, Doris, 261

Levi, Michael, 313

Levitsky, Steven, 206

Lewis, Sinclair, 284

Lewis, Wyndham, 446, 447

Lewontin, Richard, 114

LGBT rights. See homosexuality and homophobia

Liar’s Paradox, 352

liberal values. See emancipative values

Libya, 193, 313

Liebenberg, Louis, 353–4

life and living things as anti-entropic, 18–19, 20

life expectancy, 53–61, 54, 58

child mortality, 55–7, 56

developed vs. developing countries, 54–5, 95–6

fallacious pessimism about, 53

immortality, 60–61

and quantifiable index of global well-being, 245–6, 246, 473n45

light, artificial, 253–4, 253–4

lightning strike deaths, 189, 189

Lilla, Mark, 447, 449

Lincoln, Abraham, 45–6

linguistics, 407

Linker, Damon, 390, 448

Lister, Joseph, 63

literacy, 235–6, 236

African Americans and, 219

of females, 239–40, 239, 473n27

literature

and human knowledge, 433

scholarship in, as discipline, 407–8

See also arts and culture; humanities

Lithuania, 278

living standards

of the 1950s, 113–14

intellectual scorn for, 34, 446

Optimism Gap and, 115

sympathy and, 34

Locke, John, 230, 412

London, England, 63, 130, 135

London, Jack, 446

Long Peace, 43, 157–8, 451

and civil wars, 158–60, 466n11

and democracies, rise of, 162–3, 200

Kellogg-Briand pact and, 163–4

realpolitik and, 163

trade and commerce and, 162

See also international community

Lord, Charles, 359–60

lottery, winning, 270

Louis C.K., 262–3, 264

Lovelock, James, 465n76

Loving, Richard and Mildred, 376

Lucas, Robert, 89

Lutheranism, 412

Macaulay, Thomas, 327–8

McCloskey, Deirdre, 84

McGinn, Colin, 427–8

McKibben, Bill, 465n76

McNally, Richard, 281

McNamara, Robert, 74, 319

Macron, Emmanuel, 339

Madfis, Erik, 198

Madison, James, 13, 407

Maduro, Nicolás, 91, 171

magical thinking, 5, 249

Mahbubani, K., 459n16

Maher, Bill, 374

Maher, Shiraz, 5, 443

Mahmood, Omar, 443

Mailer, Norman, 447, 456n1

Malamud, Bernard, 284

malaria, 66, 66

Malaysia, 57, 200, 203, 442, 457n8

Malthusian Era, 54

Malthus, Thomas, 73–4

Mandela, Nelson, 91

Mann, Thomas, 446

Mao Zedong

death of, 90, 208

as leader, 78, 91, 143

and nuclear weapons, 313

repression under, 203, 208

Western intellectuals as admirers of, 447

Marcotte, Amanda, 358–9

Marcuse, Herbert, 39–40

Marcus, Gary, 477n20

marijuana, 175, 185

Maritain, Jacques, 418

Marxism

Critical Theory as quasi-Marxist, 396–7

human costs of, 78, 90–91, 101, 107, 165, 200, 247–8, 271, 364, 430

intellectuals’ sympathy with, 31, 364, 372, 447

See also communism

Marxist guerrillas and terrorists, 158, 195, 197, 198

Marx, Karl, 103, 165, 349, 405

Maslow, Abraham, 224

massive open online courses (MOOCs), 238

Mateen, Omar, 215, 216

maternal mortality, 57–68, 57

Maurras, Charles, 448

meaningful life, 3–4

contrasted with happy life, 267–8

Enlightenment ideals and, 3–4

freedom and, 265–6

humanistic caring and, 434–5

Humanist Manifesto III on, 411

measles, 66

Medellín, Colombia, 172

media

about things that happen vs. don’t happen, 41

anxiety produced by, 286–7

Availability heuristic and, 42, 201

Betteridge’s Law of Headlines, 282

child labor exposed by, 230

climate change coverage, 151

dystopian rhetoric of, 50, 343

fact-checking and, 375–6, 380

gravitas market, 49, 293, 452

liberal tilt of journalism, 372–3, 484n54

mental health perceptions and, 282–3

“nuclear war” less mentioned, 310, 479n80

and pessimism, 40–41, 50, 343

political coverage, improvement of, 381, 383

populism and, 343–4

and shift from glorifying to exposing leaders, 50

terrorism coverage, recommendations for, 197–8

time scale of positive vs. negative events, 41

tone of the news (1945–2010), 50–51, 51

Trump’s election, role of, 50, 343, 376, 449

Trump’s threats to, 336

and violence, portrayal of, 42, 215–16

workplace safety coverage, 186

—NEGATIVE NEWS AS FOCUS OF, 42, 50

anxiety and depression and, 286–7

children and, 229

cumulative psychological effects of, 292

equal rights and, 215

incremental system change, loss of belief in, 50

upticks of problems and, 44

viewed as duty of journalists, 49

Medicare, 109

medicine

blood groups, 64

evidence-based, 380

future gains not calculated in life expectancy, 60

and immortality, hope for, 60–61

new technologies for, 331

progress in, as incremental, 55, 61

sterilization of hands and equipment, 63, 67

See also drugs, pharmaceutical; health; health care; infectious disease; vaccines

Medvedev, Dmitry, 316

Meehl, Paul, 403–4

Mellers, Barbara, 367–8, 370–71

memory, autobiographical, 3, 48, 407

Mencken, H. L., 446

men. See sex differences; women

mental health and illness

cognitive behavioral therapy, 175, 282

depression, 280–83, 284, 476n74

disease mongering/concept creep, 281–2

drugs for, 281, 282

and freedom, 285

paradox of, 282

as percentage of global burden of disease, 282

rates of depression and anxiety, 282–3, 476n74

See also anxiety; suicide

mental models, 22–3

Mercier, Hugo, 380

Merton, Robert, xvii–xviii

methane (natural gas), 136, 143, 147, 183

methodological naturalism, 421–2

Mexican-American War (1946–48), 163

Mexico

agriculture in, 76

homicide rates in, 169, 170, 172

literacy in, 236

Mexican Revolution, 199

social spending in, 109

Trump and immigration from, 336

women’s rights in, 222

Meyer, Bruce, 116

microwave ovens, 252

Midas, King, 299

Middle Ages

accidental death rates in, 180–81

belief in external forces, 9–10

cost of artificial light in, 253, 253

homicide in, 43, 168

poverty and, 79–80

private militias as ubiquitous in, 197

racism and slavery of, 397

middle class

globalization and effects on, 112, 113, 118–19, 339, 340

worldwide increase of, 86, 459–60n18

Middle East and North Africa

carbon emissions of, 144

communist governments in, 200

education in, 236–7, 237

emancipative values in, 227–8, 227, 439

imperialist interventions in, 439

literacy and, 236

refugees from, and European populism, 338

See also Arab countries; Muslim countries; individual countries

Milanović, Branko, 104–5, 111, 112, 113

military governments, 200

military spending, 162, 467n18

Millennials, 225

depression and, 476n74

digital technology and, 244

happiness and, 273

as increasingly liberal, 217

low voter turnout in Trump’s election, 343

secularization and, 437

suicide and, 280

well-being of, 283

Miller, George, 314

Mill, John Stuart, 373, 417

Milošević, Slobodan, 447

mind-body dualism, 3, 22, 422, 427

mining safety and working conditions, 185, 230

minority rights, populist disregard for, 333, 340

misanthropy

of cultural criticism, 34, 247, 446

of traditional environmentalism, 122, 134, 154

Mishima, Yukio, 446

Missouri, capital punishment in, 211

mobile phones/smartphones, 94–5, 257, 331

Mokyr, Joel, 82–3, 332

Molière, 411

Monbiot, George, 264

Mongolia, 85, 86

Monitoring the Future (youth survey), 185

monotonicity, 44

Montefiore, Hugh, 465n76

Montesquieu, 8, 10, 12, 13, 223

Monty Python’s Flying Circus, 392

Mooney, Chris, 387

Moore, Patrick, 465n76

Moore’s Law, 46, 298, 330

morality

as balancing desires conflicting with others’, 414

basis of, 412–15, 419

capital punishment abolition and, 211–12, 213

deontological, 416–18

evolution as selecting for, 415

humanism and, 395, 410

impartiality and, 412–13, 415

progress in, as cumulative, 327

relativists vs. realists, 429–30

and safety regulations, 190

social contracts against harm, 27–8

sympathy and, 415

utilitarian, 415–19

and violence, vulnerability to, 414–15

See also theism and theistic morality

moral sense

abstract reasoning and honing of, 243

deficits in, 26, 140

root-causism and, 169–70

sacrifice and, 140–41

Morgenthau, Hans, 309

Morrison, Philip, 308

Morton, Oliver, 154

Moss, Jonathan, 402

Mothers Against Drunk Driving, 178

motor vehicles

accident deaths, 42, 176–8, 177

deaths in, vs. terrorist deaths, 192, 193

decline in demand for, 135

drunk driving, 178

robotic cars, 180

safety, development of, 177–8, 190

Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 200

Mozambique, escape from poverty of, 85, 86

Mozgovoi, Aleksandr, 479n93

Mueller, John, 205–6, 263, 305, 310–311, 313

Mugabe, Robert, 91

Mukherjee, Bharati, 284

Muller, Richard, 313

multiethnic communities, 405, 448, 450

multiverse theory, 424–5

Munroe, Randall, 127, 128, 430, 489n52

music, 260, 407

Musk, Elon, 296

Muslim countries

atheists in, 435

cohorts, 442, 491n106

cruel punishments in, 439, 440

emancipative values weakest in, 223, 227–8, 227, 240, 439, 442

female genital mutilation in, 439

fertility decreasing in, 126, 436

homosexuality as crime in, 223, 439, 440

“honor killings” of women in, 439

and humanism, lack of progress in, 439–42

humanistic revolution in, 442–3, 491n106

human rights violations and, 439

separation of mosque and state, 441

theocracies and, 201

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 418–19

women’s rights in, 222, 439, 442, 491n106

See also Arab countries; Islam; Islamist extremists; Muslims

Muslims

conspiracy theories and, 67, 336

hate crimes targeting, 219–20, 220

literal readings of Quran, 440, 490n96

percentage of world population, 436

sharia law and, 440, 490n96

as strongly religious, 440

Trump and immigration of, 336

Mussolini, Benito, 445, 446, 447, 491n118

Mutar, Faisal Saeed Al-, 442

Myanmar (Burma), 203, 419

Myhrvold, Nathan, 477n20

Naam, Ramez, 298, 477n20

Nabokov, Vladimir, 261

Nader, Ralph, 177

Nagel, Thomas, 351–2, 412, 413, 427, 429, 482n4, 488n43

Nalin, David, 64

Namazie, Maryam, 443

Namibia, 203

NASA, 295, 300

Nasr, Amir Ahmad, 443

Nasrin, Taslima, 443

nationalism

as counter-Enlightenment value, 30–31, 448

political ideologies and, 31

romantic nationalism, 165–6, 447, 448, 449–51

Russian, 159

vs. social contract, 31

See also populism

National Science Foundation, 356–7, 387

nation-states

cyber-sabotage accomplished by, 304

as putative units of group selection, 31, 448, 450

romantic nationalism, 165, 447, 448, 449–51

tribalism and, 450

natural disaster deaths, 187–9, 188

destruction of civilizations, 295–6

extinction of human species, 294–5

natural gas (methane), 136, 143, 147, 183

naturalism, 392, 421–2, 486n17

Natural Resources Defense Council, 465n76

natural selection, 18–19

homeostasis discovered by, 22

human intelligence and, 297

humanism and, 413–14

reality as selection pressure, 355

See also evolution

nature

competition and arms races in, 19, 24–5

environmentalism, traditional view of, 122

purpose in, science as refuting, 8, 24, 394–5, 434–5

as robust, 133

Romanticism and, 30, 121

See also natural selection

Nawaz, Maajid, 443

Nazi Germany

Christianity of, 430

counter-Enlightenment ideology of, 397

eugenics and, 399

Holocaust, 161, 397, 399, 430

intellectual fans of, 447

Nietzsche as influence on, 445

public health invoked by, 399

“scientific racism” of, 397–8

See also Germany; Hitler, Adolf

Negativity bias, 47–8, 293

Negroponte, John, 310

Nemirow, Jason, 140

neo-fascism, 419, 448, 451

neo-reaction, 419, 451

Nepal, 203

Netherlands

commerce, embrace of, 84–5

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

happiness ranking of, 475n30

homicide rates in, 169, 170

life expectancy in, 95

literacy in, 236

populism repudiated in, 338–9

secularization and, 436

social spending in, 108

New Deal, 107–8

New England, homicide rates in, 169, 170

New Peace, 43

New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 317, 318

Newton, Sir Isaac, 24

New York City, 172, 286–7, 380

New York Times, 44, 50, 74, 97, 151, 280, 292, 373, 409, 420

New Zealand

economic freedom in, 365, 483n39

education in, 237

and escape from poverty, 85

happiness and, 451, 475n30

IQ gains in, 241, 241

secularization and, 437, 438–9

social spending in, 365, 483n39

well-being and, 438–9, 451

women’s rights in, 222

Nicaragua, 158

Niebuhr, Reinhold, 311

Nietzsche, Friedrich, 443–7

cultural pessimism, advocate of, 39–40, 406

intellectuals and artists as fans, 445, 446–7, 452

quotations from, 444–5

See also romantic heroism

Niger, 203

Nigeria

democratization of, 203

famine in, 73

killings by Boko Haram in, 162

polio in, 65

secularization and, 436

terrorist deaths in, 193

Nisbet, Robert, 40

Nixon, Richard, 119

Nobel Peace Prize, 203, 232, 240, 316

Nomani, Asra, 443

Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970), 316–17

No Nukes concert and film (1979), 147

nonviolent resistance, success rate of, 405

non-Western Enlightenments, 29–30, 419, 439, 442–3, 456n2

Norberg, Johan, 54–5, 68, 79, 125, 203–4

Nordhaus, Ted, 122, 141–2, 147, 253–4

Nordhaus, William, 138, 253

Nordic countries

egalitarian income distribution in, 98

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

environment of, 130

and escape from poverty, 85

forced sterilization laws of, 399

human rights in, 208, 208

Norma Rae (film), 113

Norris, Pippa, 224, 340

North, Douglass, 83

North Korea

Arduous March, 78

as autocratic, 201–2

conflict with South Korea, 158

democratization and, 206

famine in, 78

human rights in, 208, 208

nuclear weapons and, 317, 320

poverty in, 90

Norvig, Peter, 477n20

Norway

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

happiness ranking of, 475n30

human rights in, 208, 208

income per capita in, 271

populism and, 341

nostalgia, 48, 113, 256

Nozick, Robert, 99

nuclear power, 144–5, 146–50, 330, 465n76

nuclear war, 307–321

balance of terror, 315

ban on (Global Zero), 315–17, 320–21

close calls, 310, 312–13, 318, 479nn93,95

deterrence and, 312, 314–15, 317

fear, failure to mobilize public, 308–311, 479n80

Graduated Reciprocation in Tension-Reduction (GRIT), 318, 320

historical pessimism and, 308

and international relations, 312, 315

launch on warning (hair trigger), 315, 319–20

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), 315

nations with capacity, 313, 317–18, 318

New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), 317, 318

no-first-use pledge, 320

Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970), 316–17

nuclear winter, 308, 310

probability of nuclear war, 312–13

proliferation limited, 313

reduction of arsenal, 317–19, 318, 480nn113,117,121

second-strike capacity, 315, 319

security dilemma (Hobbesian trap) of, 315

Trump and, 336–7

nuclear weapons

arms race during Cold War, 291, 308, 311

complacency about, 286

Hiroshima bombing, 305

Manhattan Project and development of, 314

terrorism as threat, 310–311, 313–14

treaty banning atmospheric testing, 133–4

uranium extracted for power plants, 149, 317

Nunn, Sam, 316, 319

Nussbaum, Martha, 248, 264, 413

Nye, Bill, 434

Nyerere, Julius, 447

Obama, Barack

approval rating on departure, 338

bullying as issue for, 49

conspiracy theories about, 336, 358

farewell speech and Enlightenment, 338, 481n30

as first African American U.S. president, 214

health care and, 109

on income inequality, 97

on “now” as best time to be born, 37

and nuclear weapons, 316, 319, 320–21, 336–7

racism and, 217

Republican obstructionism and, 432

theoconservatives and, 449

Obamacare, 109

Obama, Michelle, 214

obesity epidemic, 69

objective measurement

actuarial formulas outperforming experts, 403–4

as goal of scientific literacy, 403–5

as morally enlightened, 43

Naomi Klein’s dismissal of, 139

resisters of scientific thinking objecting to, 403

See also data

occupational safety and accident deaths, 185–7, 187

Occupy Wall Street, 97

Oceania, postcolonial governments of, 201

oceans

acidification of, 137, 138, 153

and carbon dioxide (CO2) capture, 136, 150

deep-sea vents as biological energy source, 19

desalination of water, 129, 149

fisheries, 325

geoengineering and, 150, 152–3

marine conservation areas, 132–3, 133

sea level rise, 137, 138

species extinctions and, 463n32

Oklahoma City bombing (1995), 194

Olds, Jacqueline, 274

O’Neill, Eugene, 446

O’Neill, William, 286

Ono, Yoko, 166

On the Waterfront (film), 113

opioid overdoses, 184–5

Oppenheimer, J. Robert, 308

optimism

attacks on, 39, 49

complacent vs. conditional, 154–5

enlightenment as, 7

historical improvement as basis for, 51, 327–8

Optimism Gap, 40, 115, 225–6, 268

perceived as salesmanship, 49

rational (pessimistic hopefulness, possibilism, protopia, opti-realism), 52, 344–5, 482n55

See also pessimism

order

improbability of, 15–16, 24, 25

life as, 18–19, 20

meaning of life as creation despite entropy, 17

self-organization, 17–19

Orlando nightclub massacre, 215, 216

Orlov, Vadim Pavlovich, 479n93

Osgood, Charles, 318

Osler, William, 63

Ottoman Empire, 430, 439

Our World in Data (Web site), xviii, 52

Pacification Process, 43

pacifist’s dilemma, 166, 414, 488n10

Paddock, William and Paul, 74

Pagden, Anthony, 482n6

Pagel, Mark, 477n20

Paine, Thomas, 409

Pakistan

agriculture in, 76

climate change and, 151

as democracy, 207

and literacy, female, 239, 240

nuclear weapons and, 307–8, 317, 318, 320

polio in, 65

terrorist deaths in, 193

Palin, Sarah, 374–5

Pan-African Parliament, 222

Panama, 85, 86

pantheism, 8, 422

paradox of value (income statistics can mislead)

definition of, 82

globalization and, 117

increasing with humanism, 332–3

inequality and, 117

technology and, 117, 332–3

paranormal phenomena, 422, 427, 428

Parfit, Derek, 429

Paris, terrorism and, 219

Paris Agreement on climate, 134, 152, 335, 449

Paris Peace Pact (1928), 163–4

Parker, Dorothy, 248, 277

Parker, Theodore, 223

Pascal, Blaise, 162

Pasteur, Louis, 63

Paulsen, Pat, 332, 365

peace, 13–14, 156–66

democracy as fostering, 162–3

education as fostering, 235

as inherently worthy, 164–5, 166

peacekeeping forces, success of, 404–5

romantic militarism giving way to, 165–6

as self-reinforcing, 164

See also Long Peace; war

Peak Car, Carbon, Children, Coal, Paper, Timber, 144

Peak Farmland, 76, 144

Peak Oil, 135

Peak Stuff, 135–6

Peanuts (comic), 377

Pearl Harbor, 196

pedestrian deaths, 179–80, 179

Pelopidas, Benoît, 316

period (zeitgeist) effects, 224–5

happiness and, 272–4, 275

religious belief and, 437–8

See also age (life cycle) effects; cohort effects

permafrost, melting, 136

Perry, William, 316, 319

Persia, ancient, 23, 398

Peru, 158, 160

pessimism, 33, 39–52

about democratization, 201

about human rights, 207

about life expectancy, 53

mistaken for moral seriousness, 49

as one-upmanship, 49

and populism, xvii, 50, 343–4

about racism, sexism, and homophobia, 215

and sympathy, expansion of circle of, 49

about terrorism, 191

and Trump’s election, 340

See also fatalism; intellectuals; media; optimism; romantic heroism

—CULTURAL PESSIMISM, 33

doomsday scenarios from, 293, 294

German, 165

and happiness, lack of, 263–4, 268

and the humanities, malaise of, 406

quality of life, 247

and romantic militarism, 165–6

about science, 400

—HISTORICAL PESSIMISM, 33

and democracy, 201

and nuclear war, 308

root-causism, 169–71

petroleum

carbon-to-hydrogen ratio of, 143

deaths caused by, 146–7

new technologies for use of, 330

See also climate change; coal; energy

Pew Research Center, 216, 222

pharmaceutical drugs. See drugs, pharmaceutical

Philippines, 152, 200, 336

philosophy, 23, 433, 434

arguments lead to moral progress, 210, 409

arguments about consciousness, 425–8

arguments on reason and rationality, 8, 351–3

and consilience with science, 407

naturalism as favored position of, 392, 486n17

not divorced from empirical world, 391–2

Second Culture misconceptions of, 408–9

See also reason

photography, 257

Picasso, Pablo, 447

Pickett, Kate, 100, 101

Piketty, Thomas, 99

Pimm, Stuart, 133

Pinker, Robert, xviii

Pinker, Roslyn, xviii

Pinker, Susan, xviii, 274

Pinter, Harold, 447

plague, 80

plane crash deaths, 42, 180, 180

plane travel, democratization of, 257–8, 258

plants, energy/food production, 19, 150

Plato, 381, 421, 428–9, 431

pneumonia, childhood deaths from, 66

poison, deaths from, 182, 183–4

Poland, 201, 334, 341, 436

police

killings of African Americans, 215–16, 471n6

and violent crime reduction, 168, 173–4, 176

See also rule of law

polio, 63–4, 65

political ideologies of left and right

belief in evolution and, 356

as biased on specific polarized topics, 361–3

conservative rejection of ideal of progress, 363–4

democracy undermined by, 374

denial of climate change and, 357

eugenics and, 399–400

innumeracy on polarized topics, 360–61

irrationality of issues charged with, 381–4

journalism and, 372–3, 484n54

leftist sympathy for Marxism, 364

libertarian right extremism, 364–5

moderates, 372

nationalism and, 31

polarization increasing, 371, 374–5

populism and, 334

predictions affected by, inaccuracy of, 368, 371

rational approach to politics vs., 365–6

religion and, 31–2

research as harmed by, 373, 387–8

scientists and, 138, 356–8, 372

as secular religions, 32

Social Darwinism and, 399, 486n36

social segregation according to, 371

as sports fandom, 359, 360, 366, 381, 383

Trump’s election and, 343

See also academia

political science, 407

PolitiFact, 336, 375–6

Polity Project, 202, 203

Polk, James, 63

pollution. See environmental protection: pollution

Pol Pot, 78, 161, 447

poor countries. See developing countries/world

Popper, Karl, 205, 393, 486n21

population

control measures, 74

demographic transition, 125, 135–6, 436

education and decline of, 238

explosion of, 56, 73–4, 125–6, 125

fertility of religious believers, 436, 489n70

fertility rates as decreasing, 125–6

growth of, 125

Muslim, 126, 326

and Peak Stuff, 135–6

populism, 29, 333–4

age rolloff in support for, 341–2, 342

backlash against equal rights, 219, 221, 225

cultural backlash as primary issue in, 340, 342

dystopian rhetoric and, 343–4

economics and, 339, 340, 342

education and, 339, 340

and electoral irregularities, repair of, 342–3

in Europe, 334, 338–9, 341–2, 342, 438, 451

fascism and, 448, 491n118

institutional limits on power of, 337–8

intellectuals and, 343–4

vs. international community, 163, 337–8

left- and right-wing varieties, 334

media and, 343–4

minority rights, disrespect for, 333, 340

Peak Populism, 451

and “political correctness,” 219

progress as rejected by, 334, 363–4

racism and, 339–40

repudiation of, 338–9

strongman emergence as factor in, 340–41, 343

and terrorism, fear of, 338, 339

theoconservatism and, 448–9

voter characteristics and, 339–40

voter turnout and, 343, 438

See also Trump, Donald

Porter, Roy, 84

Portugal, 200, 341, 481n32

positivism, 388. See also reductionism; scientism

postcolonial governments

civil war and intercommunal violence of, 164

and democracies, rise of, 200, 201

famine exacerbated by policies of, 78

postmodernism, 351

hatred of science, 397

and malaise of the humanities, 406

Nietzsche as influence on, 446

relativism, 406

Poststructuralism, 446

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), 281, 282

“post-truth era,” 375

Potomac River, 130

Pound, Ezra, 447

poverty, 79–96

clothing and, 80, 117, 118

conditions of, 79–80, 92–4

and consumption, 116–18, 116

as default state of humankind, 25, 79

definition of, 79

and disposable income, 115–16, 116

economic inequality confused with, 98–9

energy requirements to escape, 141

escape from, 24, 54, 85, 364, 459–60nn16,18,20

escape from, factors contributing to, 90–96, 234

homelessness, 116

pollution and, 130–31, 463n28

retirement and alleviation of, 250–51, 250

social spending to alleviate, 107–110, 115–16

workhouses, 79, 250–51

See also developing countries/world; economic inequality; wealth

—EXTREME POVERTY, 87

number of people living in, 88–9, 88

per capita income distribution and, 86–7, 86

percentage of world living in, 87–8, 87

United Nations’ goal for reducing, 89, 460n28

power-law distribution, 46, 162, 290, 292–3

Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 110, 245, 473n45

prediction, 46, 366–71

Availability heuristic and, 370

Bayesian reasoning and, 369–70

common-sense awareness of, 366

ideology driven as least successful, 368, 371

media and intellectuals unaccountable for, 366–7

prophecy distinguished from, 46

superforecasters, 368–71, 380, 393, 404

wisdom of crowds and, 370

President’s Council on Bioethics, 60

Preston Curve, 95

probabilities

of imaginable events, inaccurate estimates, 292

of nuclear war, 312–13

of rare events, 46, 162, 290, 292–3

See also Availability heuristic; prediction

productivity, 328

delay in effects of technological change, 330

factors affecting slowdown of, 329

technological sophistication and, 328

progress

as apparent historical force, 109, 177–8, 190, 211–13, 215, 220–21

vs. Authoritarian High Modernism, 11–12

as cumulative, 326–7

definition of, 11, 51–2, 55, 410

vs. dialectics and other mystical forces, arcs, and struggles, 11, 109, 326, 395, 400

general factor (quantitative), 245–6, 246, 473n45, 483n42

global shaming campaigns and, 222, 443

Human Development Index, 245–6, 246, 473n45, 483n42

institutions as hope for, 12

“price of,” 11–12, 185–6

Romantic vs. Enlightenment versions, 11, 109, 326, 395, 400

summary of, 322–6

threats to, 328–41. See also economic stagnation; populism

unbundling negative features from, 94

United Nations Millennium Development Goals for, 52, 89, 239–40, 457n31, 459–60n18

Protestant countries, emancipative values in, 227

Protestant ethic, 85

psychology

clinical. See anxiety; depression; mental health and illness; psychotherapy; suicide

cognitive, 351, 353, 378, 407

Enlightenment precursors, 8–9, 10, 353, 392

evolutionary, 17, 25–8, 353–5, 415, 426, 448, 450

social, 100, 373, 407

See also cognitive biases

psychotherapy

cognitive behavior therapy, 282

Feedback-Informed Treatment, 380

and media focus on negative news, 286–7

public goods game. See Tragedy of the Commons

public health

bioterror and international networks, 301

Ebola control, 307

Nazi Holocaust invoking, 399

revolution of, 64, 83

See also vaccines

“Publius Decius Mus” (Michael Anton), 448, 449

Pulitzer Prize, 52

purpose, absence of in nature, 8, 24, 394–5, 434–5

“spirituality” and, 434

Putin, Vladimir, 159, 201, 205, 335, 336

Putnam, Robert, 274, 432

Pynchon, Thomas, 456n1

Pythagoras, 23

Quakers (Society of Friends), 162, 412

quality of life, 247–61

and diet, diversification of, 258–9

entertainment and culture, diversity of, 260–61

fundamental capabilities, 248, 264–5, 413

and GDP, 95

leisure time and family life, 255–6, 256

light, affordability of, 253–4, 253–4

necessities, cost of, 254–5, 254

plane travel, affordability of, 257–8, 258

poverty, alleviation of, 251, 473–4n8

secularization and, 438–9, 490n87

time required to stay alive, 248–52, 252, 255

travel/tourism, 258–9, 259

vacation time, 251

See also happiness; well-being, subjective

quantitative mindset. See objective measurement

quantum mechanics, 423, 424, 425, 427

Quarantelli, Enrico, 305

Quayle, Dan, 255, 374–5

Qutb, Sayyid, 441

Rabi, Isidor, 308

Rabinowitch, Eugene, 311

racism, 214–15

and academia’s left-wing tilt, 373–4

of ancient Greeks toward Africans, 397

global progress in, 222

Internet searches as index of, 217–19, 218, 339–40, 471n13

and interracial marriage, 376

of medieval Muslims toward Africans, 397

police shootings of African Americans, 215–16, 471n6

public opinion in the U.S., 216–17, 216, 471n8

of Romans toward Britons, 397

“scientific racism” misdescribed, 397–8, 486n32

Trump’s election and, 339–40

Radelet, Steven, 59, 90, 91, 93, 459n16

radioactive fallout, 133–4, 315

Radner, Gilda, 266

Railton, Peter, 429

Raitt, Bonnie, 147

Ramdas, Kavita, 94

Ramon, Gaston, 64

rampage shootings, 191, 193–6

categorization as terrorism, 192, 193–4

copycat killings, 193–4

media response, recommendations for, 198

motives of killers, 196, 216

Rand, Ayn, 446

Randomistas, 380–81

rare events, probability of, 46, 162, 290, 292–3

Rawcliffe, Carol, 181

Rawls, John, 88, 412

Rayburn, Sam, 16

Raza, Raheel, 443

Reagan, Ronald, 110, 115, 316, 374–5

real estate, social status, and dematerialization, 135

reason, 8, 351–84

Cartesian argument, 8, 351–2, 413, 482n4

and cosmopolitanism, 11

depoliticizing, 381–3

evolutionary roots in hunter-gatherers, 353–4

fact-checking in media, 375–6

and human irrationality, 8–9, 351, 353, 358, 375, 407, 482n6

increase of, despite contrary sense, 380–81

the meaning of life and, 3–4

vs. politicization, 381–4

and religion, 8, 30, 388, 389, 393–5

subjectivity and, 351–2, 390

See also cognition; cognitive biases

reductionism, 388, 392–3

Reed, Lou, 284

Rees, Martin, 290–91, 301, 423

reforestation, 76, 130, 134, 150, 459n25

refrigeration, 75, 82, 251, 252

refugees/displaced persons, 160, 338, 466n12

relationships. See family life; social support vs. isolation

relativism

incoherence of, 351–2

morality and, 429–30

Nietzsche as inspiring, 445, 446

postmodernism and, 406

of religion, 429, 430

religion, 8, 30, 31–2, 420–43

and capitalism, development of, 84, 85

and China, freedoms in, 204

commerce as ameliorating hatreds, 84

Cornwall Declaration on environment, 287

as counter-Enlightenment, 30, 31–2

decline of. See secularization

development of (Axial Age), 23

doomsday prophecies by, 294

equal rights for religious minorities, 222

freedom of, utilitarianism and, 417

humanism, clashes with, 30, 432–3

humanism, compatibility with, 412, 431–2

Inquisition, 442

and morality. See Euthyphro (Plato); morality: basis of; theism and theistic morality

positive contributions to community, 431–2

revival of, 435, 436, 438

science encroaching on, 388, 391, 394–5, 422–3

separation of church and state, 418, 441

spirituality, 433–5

summum bonum, rethinking of, 84

theodicy (rationalization for suffering), 39, 423

See also God; soul, immaterial; specific religions

Republican Party

attempts to repeal Obamacare, 109

and climate change, 357

democratic norms undermined by, 374

electoral floor of support for, 338

increased partisanship of, 371–2

innumeracy of, on polarized topics, 361

journalists in, 484n54

theoconservatism and, 448–9

war on science of, 387–8

See also political ideologies of left and right; populism

Rhodes, Richard, 313

Richardson, Samuel, 284

Richards, Robert, 398

Ridley, Matt, 464n45

Riesman, David, 274

Right Revolutions, 43

Rijpma, Auke, 245

rinderpest (cattle plague), 65

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, homicide rates in, 172

rivers. See waterways

Rizvi, Ali, 443

roads and highways, 168–9, 178

Robinson, John, 255

Rock, Chris, 69, 374

Rockwell, Norman, 256

Romania, 341

romantic heroism, 33, 419–20, 443–51

disdain for the common person, 444–5, 446, 447

fascist movements inspired by, 445, 448

intellectuals and artists as fans, 445, 446–7, 452

and nationalism, 165–6, 445, 447, 448, 449–51

rejection of Enlightenment, 33, 444–5

and relativism, 445, 446

sexism of, 444

and totalitarian dictators, 445, 446–7, 491n118

Trumpism as influenced by, 448–50, 491n118

and will to power, 33, 296, 444, 445

See also Nietzsche, Friedrich

Romanticism, 11, 30, 33

counter-Enlightenment, 30, 351

environmental movement and, 32, 121, 122

and factory work, 92

heroic struggle as the greatest good, 30, 33, 448

progress, version of, 11. See also progress: vs. dialectics and other mystical forces, arcs, and struggles

race theory of, 398, 400

violence as glorified in, 30, 33

See also environmental movement (traditional); romantic heroism

romantic militarism, 165–6, 445

romantic nationalism, 165, 447, 448, 449–51

Romantic poetry, 433

Roma people, 399

Rome, ancient. See classical Greece and Rome

Romer, Paul, 154–5

Roosevelt, Eleanor, 419

Roosevelt, Franklin D., 63

Roosevelt, Theodore, 400

Rosenberg, Nathan, 79

Rosenberg, Robin, 282

Rosenberg, Tina, 50

Rosenthal, Bernice Glatzer, 445

Roser, Max, 52, 53, 88–9

Rose, Stephen (economist), 114

Rose, Steven (neuroscientist), 447

Rosling, Hans, 52, 53, 74, 251–2, 345

Rosling, Ola, 86

Ross, Lee, 359–60

Rotblat, Joseph, 308

Roth, Philip, 284

Roth, Randolph, 174

Rothschild, Nathan Meyer, 62

Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 10, 30, 230

Rowling, J. K., 99, 100, 118

Ruddiman, William, 123

rule of law

democracy as dependent on, 335–6

establishment of, in early modern Europe, 43

integrity of, and emancipative values, 228

violent crime reductions and, 43, 168–70, 174

Rushdie, Salman, 443

Ruskin, John, 165

Russell, Bertrand, 421, 445

Russell, Stuart, 300, 477n20

Russia

as autocracy, 201, 203, 205, 335

civil war, 78

conflict with Georgia, 335

conflict with Ukraine, 158, 159, 335

Crimea annexation (2014), 164, 335

cyberattacks by, 335

democracy, undermining of, 335

famine in, 72

homicide rates in, 172, 174

homophobia in, 223

legitimacy of government, and crime wave, 174

nationalism of, 159

nuclear power and, 147, 150

nuclear weapons, 308, 315, 316–17, 318, 320–21

revolution, 78

secularization and, 436

Time of Troubles, 199, 484n77

Trump administration’s collusion with, 335

See also Cold War; nuclear war; Soviet Union

Rwanda, 69, 85, 86, 161–2

safety, 167–90, 323, 480n2

auto safety, 177–8, 190

fall prevention, 181–2

fire safety, 183

flood control, 188

gas and vapor, 183

government regulations, 177–8, 186, 187

natural disasters and, 187–9

opioid addiction, 184

Trump and, 335

in the workplace, 185–7, 187

See also accidental deaths; motor vehicles

Sagan, Carl, 308, 310

Sahel, 73

Said, Edward, 39–40

Saint-Pierre, Abbé de, 13

Sale, Kirkpatrick, 456n1

Salk, Jonas, 63–4, 65

Sanders, Bernie, 97

Sanger, Margaret, 400

sanitation, 63, 67, 331

San Pedro Sula, Honduras, 172

San people, 249, 353–4

São Paulo, Brazil, homicide rate in, 172

Sartre, Jean-Paul, 39–40, 446, 447

Saturday Night Live, 266

Satyarthi, Kailash, 232

Saudi Arabia, 209–210, 336, 419

Savulescu, Julian, 402

Scalia, Antonin, 336

Scandinavia. See Nordic countries

Schank, Roger, 477n20

Scheidel, Walter, 106–7

Schelling, Friedrich, 30

Schelling, Thomas, 480nn105,112

Schell, Jonathan, 309–310, 456n1

Schmitt, Carl, 447

Schneier, Bruce, 303, 304

Schopenhauer, Arthur, 39–40, 165

Schrag, Daniel, 151

Schumer, Amy, 434

Schwartz, Richard, 274

science

application to wealth creation, 82–3, 94–5

beauty and, 34, 260, 386, 407–8, 433–4

climate change, consensus on, 137–8, 464n45

collaboration in, 64, 409

cosmopolitan virtues of, 409

definition of, 9, 391–3

depth of achievements of, 385–7

doubt as first principle of, 390

and errors and prejudices, discrediting own, 391

heroes of, 63–4

ideals of, 27, 387–8, 390, 392–3, 409

methods of, 10, 390, 392

naïveté of scientists on policy, 390–91

national boundaries transcended by, 387–8, 409

nuclear war activism by scientists, 308–310

nuclear weapons as indictment of, 308

and political correctness, accusations of, 138

political ideology in scientists, 138, 356–8, 372

and “scientific method,” as term, 392

science, disdain for, 33–4, 387, 389–90, 395, 408–9

and bioethics, 402

as bipartisan, 388–9

cultural sophistication and, 17

faitheism and, 430

history of science and, 395–6

and Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 395, 486n21

left-wing repression, 373, 388

medical progress and, 63

right-wing politicians and, 387–8

“science studies” and, 396

Second Culture paranoia about, 389–90, 409

university general education, 400–401

See also intellectuals; scientism

—EVILS BLAMED ON SCIENCE, 388–9, 397, 400

eugenics, 388, 399–400

Holocaust, 397

nuclear weapons, 308–310

racism and imperialism, 34, 388, 397–8, 399, 486n32

Social Darwinism, 388, 398–9, 486nn36–37

Tuskegee syphilis study, 401

science of man, 10

Scientific Revolution, 8, 9–10, 24, 326

scientism, 34, 388, 389, 390, 392, 395. See also science, disdain for

Scott, James, 12

Scott, Robert, 9–10, 180–81

sea level rise, 137, 138

Second Culture (Snow), 33–4, 389–90, 456n12. See also humanities; intellectuals; Two Cultures

Second Law of Thermodynamics, 15–18

misunderstood by creationists, 19

pollution and, 123

progress and, 344

See also Entropy, Law of

secularization, 435–6, 489nn65,68

affluence and education and, 435–6

cohort effect, 437–8

and fertility of religious believers, 436, 489n70

period effect, 436–7

quality of life and, 438–9, 490n84

United States and, 436, 437–8, 439, 489n75

voter turnout and, 438

secular stagnation. See economic stagnation

security dilemma (Hobbesian trap), 164, 173, 315

Seinfeld, Jerry, 374

Selin, Ivan, 148

Semmelweis, Ignaz, 63

Sen, Amartya, 245, 248, 264, 265, 442

Senegal, 203

Sennett, Richard, 456n1

September 11, 2001, attacks

conspiracy theories about, 336, 358

high death toll of, 193, 194, 194

resilience of people and, 305–6

success of, as uncommon, 303

as theater, 196

uptick in anti-Islam hate crimes and, 219, 220

used as analogy in dystopian rhetoric, 343, 449

Serbia, 203

Serengeti wilderness park, 123

service organizations, 287, 432, 450

Seven Years’ War, 484n77

sewerage, 63, 67

sex differences

anxiety, 285

depression, 476n74

educational parity, 239–40

happiness, 284, 285

suicide rates, 278, 279

See also sexism; women

sexism, 214–15

definition of, 214

education of girls and women and, 239–40, 239

Internet searches, as index of, 217–19, 218

public opinion in the U.S., 216–17, 216

romantic heroism and, 444

See also equal rights; sex differences; women

Sex, Lies, and Videotape (film), 286

Shakespeare, William, 433

shaming campaigns, global, 222, 443

Shapiro, Scott, 163–4

sharing economy, 135

Shaw, George Bernard, 287, 341, 400, 446, 447

Shellenberger, Michael, 122, 141–2, 147

Shelley, Percy Bysshe, 295

Shermer, Michael, 455n10, 457n32, 458nn19,21, 464n45, 471n3, 472n26, 487n63, 488n34

Sheskin, Mark, 101–2

Shiite Muslims, 162

Shtulman, Andrew, 356

Shultz, George, 316, 319

Sidgwick, Henry, 487n5

Sierra Club, 465n76

Sierra Leone, 238, 238

Sikkink, Kathryn, 207

Silent Generation, 225

emancipative values and, 226

and populism, 341–2, 342

secularization and, 43

suicide and, 280

Silicon Valley, quest for immortality, 60

Silver, Nate, 339, 367

Simmel, Georg, 165

Simon, Julian, 126

Simon, Paul, 284

Simon & Garfunkel, 257

Simpson, Wallis, 270

Sinatra, Frank, 218, 265–6

Sinclair, Upton, 186

Singapore, 85, 85, 171, 207, 457n8

Singer, Isaac Bashevis, 284

Singer, Peter, 429

Sino-Japanese War, 484n77

Sirleaf, Ellen Johnson, 91

slavery

abolition of, 11

arguments defending, as corrected errors, 408–9

historical ubiquity of racism and, 397

utilitarianism and laws against, 417

smallpox, 64–5, 386

smartphones, 94–5, 257, 331

Smith, Adam

and human psychology, 8–9, 353

on market exchange, 83

on paradox of value, 82

and poverty as default human condition, 25

on real price as the trouble of acquisition, 253

and self-interest working for common good, 13

on specialization, 12–13

Smith, Lamar, 387

Smith, Logan Pearsall, 328

smoke and fire deaths, 182–3, 182

Smokey the Bear, 183

Snopes (Web site), 260

Snow, C. P.

on disdain for science, 17

on factory vs. farm work, 92–3, 446

on First and Second Cultures, 33–4, 389–90, 456n12

and nuclear disarmament, 308, 309

on science as a moral imperative, 34

Third Culture, 390, 486n13

The Two Cultures, 33–4, 389

Snow, John, 63

social capital, 235

social comparison/status anxiety, 99–100, 263

social contract, 12, 27–8, 31, 412, 413

Social Darwinism, 388, 398–9, 486nn36–37

social isolation. See social support vs. isolation

“social justice warriors,” 31, 373, 375

social media

as boon to human closeness, 256–7

and dematerialization, 135

and leisure/family time, 255, 256

and loneliness, 274, 275–7

See also Internet

social psychology, 100, 373, 407. See also cognitive biases; happiness; moral sense; psychology; racism

Social Security, 109, 251

social spending, 107–110

as compatible with capitalism, 365, 483nn39,42

Egalitarian Revolution, 107

hidden welfare state (U.S.), 115, 116, 119

increase over time, 107–8, 108, 109–110

and inexorable change, 109

pre-capitalist, 107

Reagan/Thatcher ideology against, 110

redistribution/welfare state, 108–9

as reducing inequality and poverty, 107–110, 115–16

Trump and, 334

universal basic income, 119

as universal in developed nations, 110, 115

Wagner’s Law and, 109–110

and well-being, 108, 110, 365, 483nn39,42

social support vs. isolation

constancy of, over time, 274–5, 475n46

as factor in happiness, 271

loneliness, decreasing, 275–7, 276

perception of increasing isolation, 274, 277

Socrates, 58, 59, 212, 428

Sokov, Nikolai, 316

Somalia, 65, 73

Sontag, Susan, 376–7, 447, 456n1, 484n77

soul, immaterial

vs. activity of brain, 22, 422, 427–8

hard problem of consciousness, 427, 428

mental life attributed to, 22

religions valuing, above lives, 30, 429, 433

religious wars and, 429

as testable hypothesis, 422

South Africa, 98, 172, 313, 419

South and Central America

carbon emissions of, 144

democratization and, 200, 203

drug-fueled violence in, 175

education in, 236–8, 237–8

emancipative values in, 227, 227

happiness in, 271

homicide rates and concentrations in, 172, 173–4

IQ gains in, 241

life expectancy in, 53–4, 54, 55

military juntas of, 200

personal violence, deaths from, 167

undernourishment in, 72

See also individual countries

South and Southeast Asia

Communist governments in Southeast Asia, 200

education in, 236–8, 237–8

emancipative values in, 227, 227

undernourishment in, 72

South Korea

child mortality and, 56

conflict with North Korea, 158

escape from poverty of, 85, 85, 90

GDP of, 85

human rights in, 208, 208

military government of, 200

nuclear power and, 148

suicide and, 278

South Sudan, 73, 160, 236

Soviet Union

Afghanistan invasion by, 439

atheism of, 430

Chernobyl nuclear disaster, 146

collapse of, 90, 200–201

and economic inequality, 98

former republics, emancipative values in, 227

multiethnic neighbors, peacefulness of, 405

Nietzsche as influence on, 445

nuclear arms race of 1960s and, 291, 313

quality of life and, 247

and Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 419

and World War II, 314, 430

See also Cold War; nuclear war; Russia

Sowell, Thomas, 447, 450, 459nn4,32, 460n33, 461nn5,18, 462n47, 467n9, 483n43, 484n55, 487n55, 491n115

Soyinka, Wole, 261

Spain, 200, 234, 341, 481n32, 489n68

Spanish-American War (1898), 376

Spanish flu pandemic (1918–19), 55, 306

Sparky the Fire Dog, 183

Spectator, The, 34

Spencer, Herbert, 399

Spengler, Oswald, 165

Sperber, Dan, 380

Spinoza, Baruch, ix, 8, 410

conatus (effort or striving), 19, 453

and irrationality of humans, 8–9, 353

and reason, ix, 353, 410, 412, 421

P. G. Wodehouse and, 446

spirituality, 433–5

sports

Moneyball, 381

politics similar to, 359, 360, 366, 381, 383

Springsteen, Bruce, 284

Sri Lanka, 160, 203, 278

Stalin, Joseph, 78, 161, 203, 313, 445, 447

Starmans, Christina, 101–2

Star Trek, 427

Stein’s Law, 61, 241, 283, 327

Davies’s Corollary, 61, 327

Stenger, Victor, 423

Stephan, Maria, 405

Stephens-Davidowitz, Seth, 217–18, 339–40, 471n13, 482n44

Stern, Charlotta, 373

Stevenson, Betsey, 269, 270

stoves, cooking, 117, 144, 183, 251, 252

Strauss, Leo, 491n118

Stuxnet worm, 304

Subbiah, Ilavenil, xix

subjectivity

hard problem of consciousness and, 425, 426–8, 488n43

reason and, 351–2, 390

Sudan, 72, 73, 89, 160, 161, 162

suicide, 277–80

age, cohort, and period analyses, 278, 279

cohorts and, 279–80, 476n74

decreasing rates of, 277–80, 279, 476n74

as “self-murder,” 278

sex differences in, 278, 279

Sweden’s high rate of, as urban myth, 264, 280

See also mental health and illness

Sullivan, James X., 116

Sultan, Wafa, 443

Summers, Lawrence, 67, 328, 461n8, 462nn62,65, 480n9, 490n106

Supreme Court, U.S., 212–13, 214–15, 374

sustainability, 127–9, 141

Sutherland, Rory, 135

Sweden

child mortality and, 55, 56

depression and, 282

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

fallacious pessimism and, 53

famine in, 68

happiness ranking of, 475n30

maternal mortality in, 57, 58

nuclear power and, 148

per capita income of, 86

populism and, 341

secularization and, 436, 437, 489n68

social spending in, 108

suicide rate in, 263–4, 280

traffic death rates in, 178

Swift, Jonathan, 74–5, 162

Switzerland, 271, 278–9, 279, 475n30, 489n68

Syed, Muhammad, 443

sympathy (benevolence, compassion), 11

cosmopolitanism and, 221

humanism and, 415

and infectious disease improvement, 67

the meaning of life and, 3–4

pessimism and expanding circle of, 49

for the poor, 107

and psychopathology, awareness of, 282

standard-of-living improvements and, 34

syphilis, 306, 401

Syria

civil war in, 49, 159, 160, 335

happiness ranking of, 475n30

terrorist deaths in, 193

Szilard, Leo, 308

Taiwan, 85, 85, 200

Taliban, 67, 240

Tan, Amy, 284

Taoism, 23, 204

taxes

carbon tax, 139, 145–6, 149

economic freedom compatible with, 365, 483nn39,42

libertarians and, 364–5

poverty mitigated by, 107, 115–16

Trump and, 335

Taylor, Paul, 340

Taylor, Theodore, 308

technology

advance of, and paradox of value, 82, 117, 332–3

and climate change, 143–5, 150, 153–4

and creation of wealth, 83, 94–5

delay in productivity growth due to, 330

dematerialization and, 135, 136, 332

democratization of platforms for, 332

demonetization and, 332–3

digital, Flynn effect and mastery of, 244

donated as foreign aid, 95

doomsday prophecies and, 293–4

for environmental protection, 124, 128–30, 132–6, 134–6

future advances in, 330–32

knowledge growth as exponentiated by, 233

mobile phones/smartphones, 94–5, 257, 331

nuclear power, 148–50

productivity dependent on, 328

science applied to, 82–3

Second Machine Age, 330–32

social embeddedness of, 302

technophilanthropists, 332

Trump and, 335

See also artificial intelligence (AI); consumer products; existential threats; Internet; safety; social media

teenagers

depression and, 476n74

drug use declining among, 184–5, 229

transgressive Web searches by, 218

Tegmark, Max, 308, 425

Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre, 418

teleological systems, 21–2

telephone, 94–5, 257, 331

Terminator (films), 296

terrorism and terrorists, 191–8

Availability and Negativity biases, 42, 195, 302, 307, 404

bioterrorism, 300–302, 305, 306–7

civil wars as primary locations of, 193

cyber-sabotage, 300–302, 304–6, 335

historical trends, 193–5

media responses to curtail, 197–8

motives of killers, 196

nation-states’ reactions to, 197–8

nuclear terrorism, 197, 310–311, 313–14

number of potential competent, 302–5

objective assessment of threat, 195–7

panic as risk of, 191, 195, 197

right-wing American terrorism, 194, 196, 469n10

safety of society as enhancing threat of, 197, 198

success, lack of, 196–7, 198, 303–4, 404

See also hate crimes; rampage shootings; September 11, 2001, attacks

—DEATHS FROM

double-counted as war deaths, 193

number of, 192–5, 192, 194–5, 194, 469n10

vs. other causes, 191–2, 192, 193

Tetlock, Philip, 367–71, 373, 378–9, 404

Texas, capital punishment in, 211

Thackeray, William Makepeace, 284

Thailand, 259, 336, 419, 457n8

Thatcher, Margaret, 110, 315

theism and theistic morality, 419, 420–22, 428–30

Argument from Design, 18, 421, 423

and consciousness, hard problem of, 423, 425–8, 488n43

deism vs., 8, 18, 22, 422

and existence of God, arguments against, 421–2

fundamental physical constants and, 423–5

God of the Gaps argument, 423–8

refutation of theistic morality, 428–30

wars motivated by, 10, 429–30

See also deism and deists; God; secularization

theoconservatism, 448–9

theocracy, 201, 206, 430

theodicy, 39, 423

Thermodynamics, Laws of, 15–16

See also Entropy, Law of

thick tails. See power-law distribution; rare events

Thiel, Peter, 329

Thomas, Dylan, 53

Thoreau, Henry David, 268

Three Mile Island accident (1979), 146, 148

Time magazine, 151

Timor-Leste, 203

Tocqueville, Alexis de, 165, 437

Togo, 272, 475n30

Tolstoy, Leo, 284

Tooby, John, 17, 359, 414, 477n20

Torrijos, Omar, 447

trade

benefits of, 13, 84, 162, 198–9, 228

Trump and international, 334–5

Tragedy of the Belief Commons. See identity-protective cognition

Tragedy of the Commons, 141

for beliefs, 358, 359, 376, 379

for carbon emissions, 141, 151, 153, 154

transgenic crops, 77–8, 331

transportation

agriculture and food supply and, 75, 77, 78

and human closeness, 257

plane travel, 257–8, 258

See also motor vehicles

travel/tourism, 258–9, 259, 338

treaties

Kellogg-Briand (Paris Peace) pact (1928), 163–4

New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), 317, 318

Non-Proliferation Treaty (1970), 316–17

nuclear weapons atmospheric testing ban, 133–4

ozone layer protection, 134

Paris climate agreement, 134, 152, 335, 449

sulfur emissions (acid rain prevention), 134

of Westphalia, 450

tribalism

deontological ethics and, 417

vs. Enlightenment ideals, 5, 10, 29, 32, 333, 334, 341, 447–51

human nature, as part of, 26, 393, 417, 419, 450

political, as source of irrationality, 355–63, 383

See also identity-protective cognition; populism; racism

Trump, Donald

age rolloff in support for, 341–2, 342

antidemocratic agenda of, 335–6, 337, 374, 449

antiprogress agenda of, 334–7

approval ratings of, 338

attempts to repeal Obamacare, 109, 334

dystopian vision of, xvii, 343

failures of, 109, 337–8, 451

on hackers, 300

and immigration, 97, 336, 339

institutional limits on power of, 337–8

intellectual influences, 343, 447–50, 491n118

Islamophobia and, 219

lies and conspiracy theories of, 336, 358, 375, 376

nuclear weapons and, 320

and Paris climate agreement, 134, 152, 335, 449

prejudice and hate crimes and, 217, 219

and Vladimir Putin, 335, 336

and will to power, 336

See also populism

—CAMPAIGN AND ELECTION AS PRESIDENT

economic vs. cultural factors in, 339–40

as Electoral College win, 214, 334, 340

Evangelical Christian support, 432–3, 438

intolerant rhetoric of, 215

“Make American Great Again,” 5, 334, 337

media role in, 50, 343, 376, 449

pollster predictions for, 367

popular vote loss of, 338

shrinking demographic base of, 219, 341–2, 342

voter turnout and, 343, 438

truth

vs. expressive performance, 359

institutions and norms of, 27, 374, 376, 380

Nietzsche and, 446

as not always halfway between extremes, 365

power of, 27, 338, 379, 383–4

vs. rationalization, 359

science vs. erudition as way to seek, 34, 390

vs. Trump, 336, 376

See also objective measurement; “post-truth era”; reason; relativism

Tsarnaev brothers, 303, 306

Tunisia, 203, 442

Tupy, Marian, 52, 141

Turkey, 201, 336, 436, 490n96

Tuskegee syphilis study, 401

Tutsi people, 161

Tversky, Amos, 41, 47, 383, 404

Twenge, Jean, 282, 283

Two Cultures, The (Snow), 33–4, 389. See also Second Culture

Übermensch, 443–5, 447. See also Nietzsche, Friedrich

Uganda, 160

Ukraine, 78, 158, 203, 313, 335

ul Haq, Mahbub, 245

Unabomber, 122

Union of Concerned Scientists, 308, 312

Unitarians, 412

United Kingdom

Brexit vote, 334, 340, 341–2, 342, 343

capital punishment abolition in, 209

carbon emissions per dollar of GDP, 143, 143

economic freedom in, 483n39

economic inequality in, 105–6, 106

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

escape from poverty and, 84–5, 85

Falkland Islands war, 315

GDP of, 85

happiness ranking of, 271, 475n30

life expectancy at birth, 58–9, 58

literacy in, 236

nuclear weapons and, 317, 317, 320

Optimism Gap and, 40

Peak Stuff, 135–6

populism and, 334, 338–9

secularization and, 436, 437

social spending in, 108, 483n39

and Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 419

woman as leader of, 214

women’s rights in, 222

See also England

United Nations

and capital punishment, 209

corporal punishment condemned by, 229–30

declaration on violence against women, 222

“extreme poverty” as defined by, 87

gender parity in education in, 239–40

HIV/AIDS epidemic, plan to end, 66

homicide reduction, goal for, 468n15

and homosexuality, decriminalization of, 223

Human Development Index, 245, 483n42

humanist ideals and, 411–12

International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, 234

Millennium Development Goals, 52, 89, 239–40, 457n31, 459–60n18

and outlawry of war, 163

peacekeeping forces of, 164

Population Fund, 222

Secretariat as “evidence-free zone,” 403

Security Council, 163

Sustainable Development Goals, 89, 468n15

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 207, 209, 411–12, 418–19

United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 162, 418

United States

accidental deaths in, 167

calories available per person, 70, 70

capital punishment in, 210–213, 211

carbon emissions of, 143, 143–4, 144

childhood stunting in, 71

child labor force in, 230–31, 231

Civil War, 174

climate/Paris agreement and, 134, 152, 335, 449

corporal punishment and, 230

cyber-sabotage and, 304

economic inequality in, 98, 103, 105–6, 106, 114–17, 461n4

education in, 236–9, 237–8

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

and escape from poverty, 85, 85

GDP of, 85

happiness, underachievement of, 271–4, 283–9, 288, 292, 439, 475nn30–31, 483n42

homicide rates in, 169, 170–71, 170–71, 172, 192, 467n11, 469n4

malaria in, 66

maternal mortality in, 57, 57

nuclear power and, 146, 147–8, 149–50

nuclear weapons of, 317–18, 318, 480nn113,117,121

Optimism Gap and, 40

poverty rate in, 115–17, 116

retirement in, 250–51, 250

Rights, Bill of, 411

social spending in, 107–8, 108, 109

and spending on necessities, 254–5, 254

suicide rates in, 278–80, 279

terrorism deaths in, 192–4, 192, 194, 469n10

and Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 419

and World War II, 196

universal basic income, 119

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 207, 209, 411–12, 418–19

university and college education

access to, expansion of, 220, 237–8, 238

critical thinking instruction, 377–9

general education requirement, 400–401

humanities instruction, 405–8

political leaders influencing, 347–9, 443

political science, leftist vs. quantitative, 405

politicization and, 372–5

science instruction, 34, 395–6, 400–402

See also academia; education; humanities

Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), 158

urbanization

cultural contributions, 451

density of, as environmentally beneficial, 134

populism as decreasing with, 343

Urey, Harold, 308

utilitarianism, 415–17, 415–17. See also deontological ethics; happiness

Uzbekistan, 85, 86

vaccines

conspiracy theories about, 67, 334

for Ebola, 307

for HPV vs. hepatitis B, as politicized issue, 382

inventors of, 63–5

for smallpox, 65, 386

Trump and, 334

vacuum cleaners, 252

values

changes across age, period, and cohort, 224–5, 272–4, 275

and hierarchy of needs, 124, 224

See also emancipative values

Vatican City, 222

Venezuela, 91, 171, 172, 343, 467n12

Vico, Giambattista, 10

Vidal, Gore, 456n1

Vietnam, 85, 86, 90, 161, 206

Vietnam War, 50, 158, 160, 161, 193, 376

Vikings, romantic heroism and, 33, 398, 444

violence

against children, 229–30, 229, 232

decline of, objections to data showing, 44–7

evolution and, 25

vs. nonviolent resistance, success rates of, 405

pacifist’s dilemma of refraining from, 166, 414, 488n10

perceived as moral, 26

Romanticism’s embrace of, 30

social contracts against harms, 27–8

will to power and (Nietzsche), 33, 444, 445

See also genocide; terrorism and terrorists; violent crime; war; women: violence against

violent crime, 168–76

1960s boom, 169–70, 173–4

cognitive behavioral therapy and, 175

contraband and, 175

decline reducing support for death penalty, 212

decline since 1992, 170–71

decline with imposition of law, 168–9, 170

drugs and, 175–6

evidence-based approach to reducing, 176

focused deterrence and, 174

Great Depression of 1930s and decline in, 170

Hobbesian trap and, 173

homicide rates as reliable indicator of, 169

law enforcement as reducing, 168, 173–4, 176

legitimacy of authority and, 174

number of deaths due to, 167

opportunity reduction, 175

reductions via Compstat program, 380

rule of law and reductions in, 43, 168–70, 174

See also criminal punishment; hate crimes; homicide; rampage shootings; terrorism

volcanoes and supervolcanoes, 152, 187–8, 295

Voltaire, 13, 39, 84, 162, 223

von Mises, Ludwig, 13

Wagner, Richard, 398

Wagner’s Law, 109–110

Wallace, Alfred Russel, 18

Wallis, John, 83

Wall Street Journal, 333, 362

Walmart, 117

war

atheism and, 429–30

battle deaths (1946–2016), 159–60, 159

chemical weapons, 459n18, 479n95

commerce/trade as reducing, 162

deaths, vs. terrorism, homicide, accidents, 192

decline of, between great powers, 157–8, 157

decline of, between nation-states, 158, 164

decline of civil wars, 164

definition of, 466n6

democracy as reducing, 162–3

economic equality generated by, 106–7

famine and, 78

illegality of, 163–4

as inevitable vs. a solvable problem, 166

international norm against, 163

mistakes and rumors as cause of, 376, 484n77

preparation for, as decreasing, 162, 467n18

refugees/displaced persons, 160, 338, 466n12

religious wars, generally, 10, 429–30

romantic militarism, 165–6

state-based cyber-sabotage as, 304

terrorism as largely a phenomenon of, 193

See also civil wars; Cold War; genocide; Long Peace; nuclear war; peace; weapons; specific wars

washing machine, 251–2, 252

Washington, George, 13

water

chlorination of, 63, 64

desalination of, 129, 149

flooding and contamination of, 188

nanofiltration of, 331

running water in home, 251, 252

sewage, protection from, 63

See also waterways

Watergate, 50

waterways

environmental protection of, 140

improvements in cleanliness of, 130

removal of dams from, 149

See also oceans

Watson, James, 386

Watson, Paul, 122

Way, Lucan, 206

wealth, 79–96

as created, 25, 79, 80

history as written by the affluent, 79

“lump fallacy”/“physical fallacy,” 80, 99

and specialization, 12–13

Trump and, 334–5

See also developed countries/world; Gross World Product; poverty

weapons

banning of, 316, 479n95

bioweapons, 410

chemical weapons, 459n18, 479n95

voluntary nondevelopment of, 314, 316

voluntary scrapping of, 315–16, 317–19

See also nuclear weapons; war

Webb, Sidney and Beatrice, 400, 447

Weber, Max, 85

Weingast, Barry, 83

Weisskopf, Victor, 308

Weizenbaum, Joseph, 309

Well-Being Composite, 245–6, 246, 473n45

well-being, subjective, 262–89

distinguished from objective well-being, freedom, happiness, meaningfulness, 264–8

eudaemonia (“good spirit”), 267

freedom/autonomy and, 265–6

secularization and, 438–9, 490n87

self-evaluations of, 266–7

social spending and, 108, 110, 365, 483nn39,42

See also happiness; meaningful life; quality of life; social support vs. isolation; suicide

Wells, H. G., 400, 447

Welzel, Christian, 124, 224, 226–7, 228, 440

West, Cornel, 39–40

Western Europe

and democracies, rise of, 200–201

economic freedom compatible with taxation, social spending, and regulation, 365, 483nn39,42

education in, 236–7, 237

emancipative values in, 225–7, 226, 227

homicide rates in, 192–3, 192, 469n4

and Long Peace, 158

per capita income of, 86

secularization and, 436, 489n68

suicide rates in, 278–80, 279

terrorist deaths in, 192–3, 192, 194

vacation time in, 251

vehicle accident deaths in, 192–3, 192, 469n4

work hours in, 249–50, 249

Whitehead, Alfred North, 1

White, Matthew, 199, 429, 484n77

whites, anti-white hate crimes, 219, 220

white supremacy, Trump administration and, 336

Wieseltier, Leon, 390, 391, 408–9

Wilde, Oscar, 82

wilderness preserves. See conservation areas

Wilkinson, Richard, 100, 101

Williams, Bernard, 482n4

Wills, Garry, 456n1

will to power, 33, 296, 336, 444, 445

Wilson, E. O., 390

Wilson, Ward, 316

Wilson, Woodrow, 400

Winfrey, Oprah, 386, 434

Winship, Christopher, 174, 175–6

wisdom, as balancing conflicting desires, 414

Wodehouse, P. G., 446

Wolfers, Justin, 269, 270

Wolf, Martin, 459n16

Wolman, Abel, 64

women

anxiety and, 285

education of girls and, 235, 239–40, 239, 473n27

happiness and, 272

household labor, liberation from, 251–2, 252

industrialization and labor of, 93–4

and social media, 276–7

See also sex differences; sexism

—RIGHTS OF

as emancipative values, 224

genital mutilation, 222

progress in, 214, 220, 222

utilitarianism and, 417–18

—VIOLENCE AGAINST

as decreasing, 220–22, 221, 471n24

media coverage of, 215, 216

wood, carbon-to-hydrogen ratio of, 143, 465n66

Wootton, David, 9, 395–6

workplace

hours required, 249–50, 249

paid vacation time, 251

retirement, 250–51, 250

safety and accidental deaths, 185–7, 187

utilitarianism and workers’ rights, 417

World Bank

on climate change, 137

on economic inequality, 461n4

“extreme poverty” as defined by, 87, 460n28

and fear of population explosion, 74

on GDP, 461n4

Knowledge Index, 228, 472n45

world/global statistics

calories available per person, 70, 70

carbon emissions per dollar of GDP, 143, 143

child labor force, 231–2, 231

deaths from accidents vs. violence, 192

deaths from homicide, 43, 169–71, 171, 192, 467nn12–13

deaths from terrorism, 192, 193–5, 194

deaths from war, 192

education, 236–8, 237–8

GDP, 85

homosexuality, decriminalization of, 223

human rights, 207–8, 208

IQ gains, 241

life expectancy, 53–4, 54

literacy, 236, 236

middle class, increases in, 86, 459–60n18

per capita incomes, 85–7, 86

progress, general factor (Human Development Index), 245–6, 246, 473n45, 483n42

racial equality, affirmation of, 222

religious equality, affirmation of, 222

women’s rights, 222

World Happiness Report 2016, 268, 269, 271

World Health Organization, 65, 66, 171–3

World Public Opinion poll, 222

World Values Survey, 124, 224, 226–7, 268, 269, 270, 440

World War I

chemical weapons and, 459n18, 479n95

The Great Illusion (Angell), 481n16

Gustav Gun (“supergun”), 316

mistakes and rumors as cause of, 484n77

religiosity of nation-states in, 430

romantic militarism and, 165–6, 445

World War II

civilian bombing as strategy of, 305

deaths during, 159–60

decline of great-power war after, 157–8, 451

famine and, 78

fascism and, 445

genocide and, 161

nuclear weapons development in, 314

refugees and displaced persons in, 160

religiosity of nation-states in, 429–30

rise of democratic governments after, 200

and romantic militarism, 166, 451

See also Long Peace; Nazi Germany

Wright, Quincy, 418

XKCD webcomic, 127, 128, 430

Y2K Panic, 293–4

Yazidi people, 162

Yeats, William Butler, 446, 447

yellow fever, 62

Yemen, 73, 160, 222

Yong, Keehup, 490n87

Yousafzai, Malala, 232, 240, 443

youth. See teenagers

Yugoslavia, former republics of, 227, 227

Zelizer, Viviana, 230

Zencey, Eric, 293

Zimbabwe, 91

Zola, Émile, 165

Zoroastrianism, 23