The ISIS Gambit

XX

“Eric,” Crown Prince ibn Saud started out, “last night you said something about an arms agreement similar to what you offered the Qataris, only cheaper.”

“That’s correct, Your Royal Highness. We offered them seventy-two F-15s for something like $12 billion. Several years ago, you purchased eighty-four of the jets that were a part of a $24 billion package. How would you feel if we offered you another seventy-two of the jets, for two-thirds the cost? It would essentially be the same deal that we offered the Qataris for only $8 billion instead. Plus, you’d have the most up to date version of the Eagles — we don’t even have this advanced version in our inventory.”

“That is an amazing deal, Mr. Secretary. However, how long are you asking us to flood the market?”

“To be honest, we haven’t worked out all of the details on this as yet,” Secretary Johnson replied.

“So, just what is your ultimate objective with this?” the prince asked. “It would seem that you have already hit them pretty hard.”

“Your Royal Highness, we bankrupted their economy once under President Reagan. We are out to do the same thing once again,” Secretary Axelsson replied.

“I see. And, if I recall correctly, that action led to the downfall of the Soviet Union. Are you looking for regime change once again?”

“I wouldn’t say that, more like ‘behavior modification’,” Axelsson replied.

“I think I understand, but that doesn’t answer my initial question — just how long do you anticipate it will take to achieve the necessary ‘modification’? At the price you indicated last night, you are quite right, we will still make a profit. However, we’d be losing millions of dollars every day in potential profits.”

“I’d like to see if this is something we can look at on a quarterly basis,” Secretary Johnson replied. “If we started now and then reviewed this at the first of the year, and then sometime in April, that would be very much appreciated.”

“You are looking for some ‘modification’ aren’t you? And what about the rest of OPEC and the Gulf Cooperation Council? I realize we are the largest producer, but there are others that, if combined, could pose a serious check on this plan or yours.”

“We are aware of that, and as soon as we’re finished here, we’ll be heading to Abu Dhabi to discuss this with the rest of the Council. We’ve invited Iran to this meeting as well as we want to get President Ali Bagheri involved in this as well. We are very much aware that lowering the cost of oil could seriously impede his recovery plans for Iran and we want to keep him in the loop for this overall strategy of ours as well. We’re already helping the Iranians rebuild and we’ll be meeting with Dr. Bagheri separately to offer him an additional aid package to compensate Iran for their lost profits. If everyone on the Gulf goes along with this, that’ll represent two thirds of the world’s oil production that’ll be dumped on the world market. That should make a statement,” Secretary Johnson concluded.

“Colonel Cadonau, Colonel Tom Jackson and this is a friend of mine, Lieutenant Colonel Danielle Yaniv,” Jackson said, introducing themselves to the Incirlik base commander.

“Nice to meet both of you. Lieutenant Colonel Gretchen Todd, here, is in charge of security for both Incirlik and Izmir.”

“How’s the arm?” Jackson asked, seeing the colonel’s arm in a sling.

“It’s fine. I hate this thing,” Todd replied indicating the sling. “That bullet did more damage than I thought but I’ll be fine in a couple weeks.”

“You have quite the job, Colonel,” Dani mentioned, addressing Todd.

“No doubt, and it’s getting tougher by the minute. The head of the Turkish National Police advised us yesterday morning that something might be in the works. We weren’t given any specifics and I don’t think the afternoon’s attack is what he had in mind — it was too soon and the Secretaries’ visit was completely unscheduled — we had a twenty minute notice that they were coming in.”

“Yeah, we heard it was a surprise visit,” Stonewall interjected. “Did he give you any idea as to why they think something is in the works?”

“Again, nothing specific, but they apparently have a few cells under surveillance and they know that a lot of the demonstrations throughout the south and east are provoked by Daesh and not the Kurds. He simply said that they are expecting something more in line with what happened on Monday at Eskisehir. It sounds like they’re almost expecting some more attacks in central or western Turkey, like Izmir or even Istanbul.”

“Did he have any idea who was behind the attack on the Turkish air force command staff?”

“He didn’t say, and I don’t think they have any idea. Daesh usually takes responsibility for attacks like that but I can’t see it being the Kurds. That just doesn’t make sense. I think they’re a little embarrassed that something like this could happen on one of their air force bases,” Todd added.

“That doesn’t surprise me. So, I suppose you don’t have any idea as to who was behind the attack here?” Jackson asked, referring to the attack at Incirlik.

“Not at this point. No one’s taken responsibility for it, either — which is more than a little unusual if it was Daesh — and the three men involved in the attack were Turks, not Kurds. Two of them came from Gaziantep and one from Malatya — pretty much central Turkey. Based on that, we’re still thinking Daesh. However, even though this is a NATO base, the Turks have jurisdiction and are leading the investigation, even though this was a direct attack on American officials. The FBI is sending a team over and they should be here late this afternoon or early evening. I’m not sure just how much cooperation they’ll get from the Turks. No reason to suspect they’ll do anything to hinder the investigation but General Van seems to be a little more on edge than I’d have thought he’d be. Van’s the Turkish commander of the base.”

“I know it’s early but any idea if this could be related to the bombing on the Turkish air force leadership the other day?” Dani asked.

“You’re right, it’s way too soon,” Colonel Todd replied.

“What does your gut say?” Dani followed up.

“No question, they’re related,” Todd added without missing a beat. “The Kurds had nothing to do with either one. The National Police are right — something’s going on. In a matter of a couple days, one bombing takes out the Air Force senior leadership and then just a few days later there’s an attack on the Secretaries of State and Defense. As a rule, I don’t believe in coincidences, and that’s too coincidental. The surprise visit of the secretaries aside, it’s just too coincidental. These two attacks are typical Daesh, and they usually take credit for attacks like this — but again, they haven’t this time. I don’t have any proof at all, but, you asked what my gut’s telling me. Something’s going on and I’m afraid we’re in the middle of it.”

“What was the overall purpose of their visit?” Jackson asked Cadonau.

“Secretary Axelsson advised us that he’s planning on moving all of the nukes out of here. He could have handled this through the normal channels but this is kind of a sensitive issue with the Turks so he wanted to do it in person. Well, after yesterday’s incident, sensitivities are out the window. I’ve already heard from USAFE”—United States Air Forces-Europe—“that we can expect a C-17 this noon and a C-130 mid-afternoon to remove all of our B-61s. The C-17 will go to Lakenheath and the C-130 will go to Aviano.”

“I assume security will be a little tighter as they’re moved?” Dani asked Colonel Todd.

“Tighter than a drum. Security’s always tight around them and, in the wake of yesterday’s attack, we’ll be ready for anything.”

“Yeah, that’s kind of what we thought,” Jackson added. “Before you lock this place down, a friend of mine’s going to be flying in from Akrotiri real soon. His name’s Sergeant Richard Morgan. He’s currently stationed there with the SAS. I’ve asked him to meet us here to see if the Brits have heard anything that hasn’t been reported through the normal channels. Then, most of our snooping around’s going to be off base but we need to make sure we’ll have access throughout the base as well as getting on and off base.”

“Not a problem, and good to know about your friend coming in. Will he strictly be on base or will he be heading off base with you as well?”

“I really don’t know his schedule so probably need to make sure he can come and go as well,” Jackson replied. “We’re planning on meeting with him here on base and then meet up with a couple of Dani’s friends right after that somewhere downtown Adana, if there’s something of the sort.”

“Very good, I’ll see to it. Colonel, here’s your pass,” Todd continued as she handed the pass to Dani. “You must have friends in high places, it’s a 10 day Top Secret clearance and took all of a couple hours to get. You should be able to access just about anything on the base. Colonel, I assume you already have your own credentials?”

“That I do,” Jackson replied.

“Abdul, is General Shishani there?” Major Savas Aksoy, General Van’s chief of staff, asked over the satellite phone connection.

“Yes, he’s here. What’s up?” Abdul Khouri, Shishani’s chief of staff, asked.

“General Van just received word that the Americans are removing their ‘special weapons’ from Incirlik. It seems that little stunt three of our airmen pulled yesterday convinced them that they need to move them right away. They’ll be moving them in two batches: they’ll have a C-17 flying out early this afternoon and then a C-130 will take the rest out mid to late afternoon.”

“We kind of expected that might happen and are looking at advancing our timetable. How soon would you be ready to go, Major? President Demirel has a meeting with a few of his cabinet members every afternoon. We do not need much advance notice at this point — could you go this afternoon?”

“Ah, yeah, we can do that,” came the reply. “I’ll need to alert everyone right away.”

“Excellent. I’ll need to know the exact time you will make your move. Once I know that I’ll coordinate everything in Ankara with President Demirel. We need to make sure that this is coordinated precisely.”

“I understand,” Major Aksoy replied. “I’ll let you know when the C-130 lands. Once it’s on the ground, I would not expect the turnaround time for this to be very long.”

“Very good, I will wait to hear from you.”

“Sir, I might have something here. We just intercepted a call from Incirlik to Raqqa. It’s on a satellite phone. Sounds like someone’s telling our ISIS friends that the US is moving their nukes. Pretty descriptive on the details as well. Why would ISIS care about that? They don’t have the moxie to try and grab them, do they?”

“Wouldn’t think so. Any other details?” the watch officer asked.

“Yes, there is. They’re discussing something about President Demirel and his daily afternoon cabinet meetings. Nothing specific regarding the president but something about being ‘ready to go this afternoon.’ No idea what this all means but something is definitely going on, sir.”

“Aside from the nukes, we really don’t have too many concerns in Turkey, and if the Americans are moving them, so much the better as far as we’re concerned. Get me the audio, though, and I’ll take it upstairs.”